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Equinomics View on Past

Coverage Stocks
31 December 2018 For private circulation only

Dear Morning Insight (MI) Subscribers,

We at Equinomics sincerely thank you for your kind support over the last few years. In our
view, the market structure has changed dramatically in the recent years in terms of volatility
and perceptions-driven impacts. This calls for aggressive active monitoring of the stocks and
advisory services. Hence, we have decided to shift our focus from the research & advisory
services to Portfolio Management Services (PMS). Hence, we are discontinuing the MI.

As promised this file has a comprehensive list of all our past stocks under coverage
with our investment rationale and disclosure of our own personal holdings as of
today. Please note that the views are based on fundamentals as of today only. We
request all MI subscribers to henceforth take calls on these stocks subject to changes based on
fundamentals, news, etc consulting their investment advisor.

Even, Equinomics and I G. Chokkalingam for our personal holdings (purchased in line with
our compliance guidelines), would take a call based on fundamental developments going
forward and follow the best ethics and compliance practices.

As requested by many MI subscribers, we have classified the stocks into 3 groups: 1.


High conviction stocks; 2. Stocks, which are large cap in nature and now considered as
defensives and also small cap stocks, whose fundamentals have changed subsequently
and become little less attractive as compared to the first category; and 3. This category
consists of mostly Long-term Deep Value Stocks (for risk-taking investors as mentioned
during the initiation) and also Sutlej Textiles, whose fortune suddenly changed due to
adverse industry factors in the recent period;

Disclosure of Stocks held

By Mr. G Chokkalingam and By Equinomics Research and


Family Advisory Pvt Ltd

Andhra Sugars Ltd Andhra Sugars Ltd

Balmer Lawrie Company Balmer Lawrie Company

Balmer Lawrie Investments Balmer Lawrie Investments

JB Chemicals JB Chemicals

MOIL MOIL
NESCO NESCO
Founder &
Cochin Shipyard MRF
Managing Director
South Indian Bank Sutlej chokka.g@equinomics.in
&
Karnataka Bank Syndicate Bank Nisarg Shah
Research Analyst

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics

1. Equinomics High Conviction Stocks


Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price
1 Andhra Sugars Ltd 333 550
Rationale for Investment
 The Andhra Sugars Limited ('the company") is a leading manufacturers' of Sugar, Caustic Soda, Industrial Alcohol &
Chlor Alkali Products, Aspirin, Sulphuric Acid, Liquid & Solid Propellants’, and also generating power through
renewable and non-renewable resources.
 Around 80 individuals / entities hold together 46% equity stake in the company – asset rich company like this always
has the potential for take over possibilities in the long term.
 Consistent profit and dividend payments record for several decades- Dividend yield of close to 4% for FY2019;
 Huge expansion in the chemical space – Aspirin, chlorine derivatives, caustic soda, etc and captive coal based power
plant;
 Rich assets including the land bank of sugar plant shut down at Tanuku;
 It has got very rich investments in JOCIL Ltd (which is a listed company, a very successful company supplying inputs
to lot of MNCs), Andhra Gas Power Corporation (an unlisted company, engaged in the production of gas based power)
and Andhra Petrochemicals worth around Rs.482 crore;

Outlook and Valuation


 This stock can possibly become a multi-bagger, if it unlocks value of surplus land at Tanuku (where the major sugar
plant is shut down) and also sugar business starts turning around. The stock trades at just 6.4x its FY2019
Annualized EPS of Rs.52/-.
2 Balmer Lawrie and Company (BLC) 205 300
Rationale for Investment
 We consider BLC as a long-term dark horse known for its impressive dividend track record, rich real estate assets
(being more than 150-year-old company). It’s a rare player in the logistics segment with huge real estate & land
assets spread over more than 30 locations mainly in various cities in India. At present, the company's logistics
infrastructure at its three locations, viz. Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata (Container Freight Stations) is spread
across 40 acres.
 BLC has a record of rich dividend payments – it has almost doubled dividend payout (dividend payment as % of
net profits) from 33% in FY2014 to 62% in FY2018. It declared a dividend of Rs.10 per share for FY2018, which is
43% increase over Rs.7/ per share paid for FY2017.
 BLC is a debt-free company with significant cash (net cash Rs.288.93 crore). It also got very rich real estate assets,
being over 150-year old company, in its logistic infra segment.
 In our view, if the government tries to divest its stake in BLC, there could fierce competition from the private
sector to acquire the stakes in BLC considering its huge assets. Our conviction in the eventual divestment
emanates from the fact that Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd (BLIL), its holding company, has given an undertaking
to the regulator to divest its shareholding and wind up its business on completion of divestment of shares of BLC
(source: www.blinv.com).

Outlook and Valuation


 BLC trades at 10.7x its FY2019 Annualized EPS of Rs.19. With rich assets, strong balance sheet and divestment
possibility it can be a multi-bagger if government decides to divest its stake.
3 Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd (BLIL) 397 526
Rationale for Investment
 The government holds 59.67% in BLIL and BLIL in turn holds only 61.85% equity stake in BLC. BLIL has given an
undertaking to the regulator in the past to “divest its shareholding and wind up its business on completion
of disinvestment of shares of Balmer Lawrie & Company”. (Source: http://www.blinv.com/).
 BLIL receives dividend from BLC, its investee company. BLIL in recent years gives back to its shareholders
entire annual earnings in the form of dividends. At the current
Equinomics Research market price,
& Advisory theLtd
Private stock gives a
| For private dividend
circulation only
yield of 7.9% on last closing price if we assume a dividend of Rs.32 for FY2019 as the company is expected
to post an EPS of Rs.33 for FY2019. This is quite rare in the Indian equity markets - rare to see such
dividend yield stocks without any known uncertainty on future profit stream.
 Trades at 43% discount to its investments made in BLC and has net cash of around Rs.131 crore.
Outlook and Valuation
 If the government decides to divest the stake in BLC and wind up BLIL, then the current discount will vanish in our
view. Not only that the stock price of BLC itself can move up considering the vast logistic infra asset of BLC. In such
a possible scenario, BLIL can emerge as a phenomenal multi-bagger.

Continued on Next page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation
4 1,321 2,500
(BBTC)
Rationale for Investment
 The valuation discount of BBTCs investments in Britannia and Bombay Dyeing stands at 76% as compared to as
compared to the industry average of around 49%.
 We firmly believe that BBTC deserves a less discount as the predominant portion (almost 95%) of BBTC’s total
investment value comes from a single company i.e. Britannia.
 BBTC also owns 2,822 hectares of tea estates in south India and 8 coffee estates situated in the district of ‘Kodagu’
(Coorg) in Karnataka. BBTC, on standalone basis, has diversified its interests into tea, coffee, other plantation
products, auto electric and weighing products, horticulture and landscaping services, healthcare products (viz.
dental), and orthopedic and opthalmic products.

Outlook and Valuation


 We have been banking on BBTC primarily for its investments in Britannia and value of its land bank.

5 BSE Ltd 599 1,058


Rationale for Investment
 BSE sitting on a huge cash of Rs.1,524 crore which is 76% of its current market cap. It has invested Rs.564 crore in
CDSL. Cash plus value of investments in CDSL as % of market cap comes at 95%;
 It also has Rs.621 crore investments in its subsidiaries;
 BSE promoted Indian International Exchange (IEX) will be the next big opportunity for the company as it is the
first International exchange from India at International Finance Service Centre, Gujarat International Finance Tech
City;
 The company has joined hands with Ebix Inc to setup a joint venture firm for building a robust insurance
distribution network in India;

Outlook and Valuation


 In our view, the initiatives of the government and regulatory setup would continue to support growth of multiple
stock exchanges in the future and never a monopoly would emerge in this business.

6 Bal Pharma Ltd 80 145


Rationale for Investment
 This small pharmaceutical company is going through a few strategic developments, which provide us hope that
the stock can unlock its potential in the near future: Recently acquired 100% stake in bulk drug manufacturing
company named Golden Drugs, signed a JV agreement with Akaal Pharma in Australia for developing and
marketing veterinary medicines;
 Bal Pharma, with 25 years of experience in manufacturing Prescription Drugs, Generic & OTC Products,
Intravenous Infusion and Bulk Actives has 6 manufacturing facilities with international approvals (Bangalore – 2;
Pune – 1; Sangli – 1; Rudrapur – 1; Udaipur - 1):
 Bal Pharma in its Annual General Meeting approved to increase in investments limits of NRIs and FPIs in the share
capital of the company to 24% and 50% respectively. At present, NRIs hold 14.60% stake (as on Sept 30, 2018).
However, the FPIs do not hold any significant stake at present in the company. If Bal Pharma succeeds in
attracting significant stakes by the FPIs then the stock could possibly get re-rated substantially;

Outlook and Valuation


 Nearly 2-decade old BAL Pharma’s EV is 1x its FY2018 sales of Rs.212 crore. Some small pharma companies trade
at more than 2x their sales.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


7 Cochin Shipyard Ltd 375 550
Rationale for Investment
 Is a thematic play on growing naval defense business;
 Holds solid balance sheet with lot of cash. Its cash balance as of 30th Sept, 2018 stands at Rs.2,529.8 crore
(adjusting for buyback of Rs.200.20 crore) which is around 48% of its market cap;
 Going through several expansions;
 Gives a divided yield of 3.1% at the current market price;
 CSL has been successful in reducing its dependence from its ship building segment by expanding its capacity in the
repair segment space and this has helped CSL improve its share of profits of the repair segment from 1/3rd of its
total profits to 70% now. Ship repair business is 2 times more profitable when compared to shipbuilding business.

Outlook and Valuation


 CSL trades at 10.1x its FY2019 Annualized EPS of Rs.37/-. We believe CSL is a quality play and is on a strong
footing looking at its strong order inflow visibility, best-in- class execution capabilities and leverage free balance
sheet.

8 Datamatics Global Services Ltd 108 165


Rationale for Investment
 Datamatics is a technology company that builds intelligent solutions enabling data-driven businesses to digitally
transform themselves through Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, Mobility and Advanced Analytics. Is the only
company in India to have a highly evolved AFC, smart gates, and contactless gates service offerings.
 Datamatics has overall 28 subsidiaries and has invested about Rs.249 crore on standalone basis. However,
just 4 subsidiaries alone account for 98% of this total investment. Standalone Company accounts only for
about 38% of total consolidated revenues while the subsidiaries account for the remaining 62% of total
revenues. Considering the size and nature of its major subsidiaries’ business, we believe that ultimate
listing of subsidiary or subsidiaries may unlock significant values for the shareholders.
 The company has recently announced demerger of its subsidiary Lumina Datamatics and list it separately after
receiving all the regulatory approvals;
 As on March 31, 2018, Datamatics had invested Rs.107 crore (Rs.90.76 crore invested in Equity and
Rs.16.10 crore in Preference Shares of Lumina, its subsidiary;

Outlook and Valuation


 Trades at 0.5x its Enterprise Value to H1FY2019 Annualized Revenues and at 1x its current book value. . In
the long run we believe the company can become a multibagger if it unlocks value from demerger of its
various subsidiaries.

9 Indian Bank 243 336


Rationale for Investment
 Indian Bank trades at 10% discount to its adjusted book value (as per the balance sheet) as of Q2FY2019, second
cheapest PSU Bank (after Vijaya Bank);
 Its latest Net Non-performing assets (NPAs) still remains the lowest after Vijaya Bank among 21 listed-
PSU banks;
 The bank maintains double-digit credit growth at 19.9% yoy, better than industry credit growth;
 The bank remains sufficiently capitalized, with CET 1 ratio at 11.2% and tier-1 ratio at 11.53%;
 In FY2019, it plans to achieve a business level of Rs.4.25 lakh crore” (which is 16.7% growth over Rs.3.64 lakh
crore of business reported as on March 31, 2018). Targeting 16% growth is quite impressive.

Outlook and Valuation


 Going forward, focus on balance sheet consolidation and moderation in fresh slippages will aid earnings
recovery. Indian Bank has a strong capital position with Tier-1 of 11.5% and is thus well-poised to grow its loan
book and benefit from further improvement in operating leverage.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


10 INEOS Styrolution Ltd 694 1,000
Rationale for Investment
 INEOS India is a leader and number one producer of Absolac (ABS) and Absolan (SAN) in India. ABS is a plastic
resin produced from acrylonitrile, butadiene and styrene. SAN is a polymerized plastic resin produced from
styrene and acrylonitrile. Both ABS and SAN are used for manufacturing of home appliances, automobiles,
consumer durables, healthcare, electronics, construction, machinery, lighting, stationary, novelties, refrigerators
and cosmetic packing;
 Parent company INEOS Styrolution of Europe is a leading global styrenics supplier, which operates 18
production sites in nine countries and has more than 85 years of experience. In 2017, its sales were at 5.3
billion euros.
 INEOS Styrolution is a member of INEOS Group, which has over $85 billion in revenue.

Outlook and Valuation


 We believe INEOS, a quality play, can be held with long term investment horizon given the strong demand and
profit drivers in the years to come. We recommend a Hold with a target price of Rs.1,000/, which is based on
18x FY2020E EPS of Rs.55/ for short to medium term.
11 Jay Bharat Maruti Ltd 311 550
Rationale for Investment
 Jay Bharat Maruti Ltd (JBML) is part of JBM Group, which has a diversified portfolio with presence in multiple
domains such as Automotive, Engineering & Design services, Renewable energy, Railways and OEM. While the
Indian promoters hold 29.28% equity stake, Maruti Suzuki India has another 29.28% stake in JBML.
 Maruti aims to sell 2 million vehicles a year by 2021, 3 million by 2025 and 5 million by 2030. The local
unit of Japan’s Suzuki Motor has lined up an investment of over Rs.20,000 crore over the next few
years. This highly optimistic future plan of Maruti and Suzuki gives us very impressive outlook
for Jay Bharat Maruti.

Outlook and Valuation


 JBML trades at around 66% discount to its annual revenues and at 0.5x its EV/H1FY2019 Annualized Sales.
We believe that tactically there is ample opportunity for the stock to play in line with other companies in
this business. This stock has the potential to become a solid multi-bagger in the next 3 to 5 years,
if Maruti Suzuki succeeds in its target of selling 3 million cars by FY2025.
12 J B Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd 305 394
Rationale for Investment
 JB Chemicals is part of good management. In the past, it has rewarded the shareholders with special dividends
and buybacks at significant premium;
 JB Chemicals has got strong balance sheet: - Adjusting for JB Chemicals recent buyback of Rs.130 crore, its net
cash post buyback as of September 30, 2018 stands at ~Rs.377 crore which is 15% of its current market
cap
 Recently JB Chemicals has altered the Memorandum of Association of the company to add a new clause allowing
the company to manufacture, buy, sell, import, export and otherwise deal in food products.

Outlook and Valuation


 Trades at 13.5x its FY2019 Annualized EPS of Rs.225.5. JB Chemicals remains as one of the finest mid-sized
pharma stocks in terms of management quality, balance sheet strength and valuation.
13 Karnataka Bank 113 200
Rationale for Investment
 Trades at mere 0.8 times adjusted book value (ABV). Its market cap is 2.77% of Business size. Many AMCs
in India are valued at 5 to 8 times the corpus they manage;
 Has reported a 21.7% yoy credit growth in Q2FY2018;
 Is making tremendous progress on the Technology front consistently.
 In the last 6 quarters, Karnataka Bank maintained its Net NPA around 3%.

Outlook and Valuation


 Technological initiatives along with aggressive branch expansion and ability to keep quality of assets under
manageable levels will go a long way in improving the profitability of the bank in the future. On current adjusted
book value of Rs.144 per share, assuming 1.4x valuation multiple gives a projected price of Rs.201.60 per share.
We maintain our conservative target price of Rs.200/ for Karnataka Bank.

Continued on Next Page…


Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser
31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


14 Moil Ltd 171 250
Rationale for Investment
 MOIL’s total manganese ore reserves as of 1st April 2017 stands at 81.47 million tonnes;
 Its Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide Plant located at Dongri Buzurg Mine is the only plant in India manufacturing
EMD for dry cells;
 In the last 5 years, MOIL has added 1,354.642 hectares of mining lease taking the total to 2,919.279
hectares.
 MOIL’s Strategic Management Plan envisages increasing the annual output of manganese ore to 3 million
tonne by 2030 – about 150% increase from the current level of production;
 MOIL’s net cash as of September 30, 2018 stands at Rs.2,394 crore which is ~53% of its current market
cap.

Outlook and Valuation


 Trades at 3x H1FY2019 Annualized EV/EBITDA, rendering it one of the most attractive global
metal/mining stocks. Given its strong business model backed by low cost operations, robust balance sheet and
improvement in demand backed by rising steel production, we believe MOIL is well poised to capitalize on the
opportunity. It is a deep-value stock with a potential to become a multibagger in the long run in case the
government opts to divest the stake in MOIL completely to the private sector.

15 MRF Limited 67,144 83,000


Rationale for Investment
 MRF is the largest company in the Indian tyre sector and commands a market- share of 27%, 23% and 36% in
truck tyres, PV tyres and 2W tyres, respectively. It has a strong brand positioning in the OEM and replacement
segments, which has resulted in industry-leading margins (500-800bps higher than peers).
 Net Cash in the books of MRF as of Sept 30th stands around Rs.3,291 crore which is around Rs.7,760 per share
(cash is approximately estimated after considering current investments and also the long-term investments
parked in mutual fund units as of March 31, 2018). Its book value as of Sept 30, 2018 stands at Rs.23,856 per
share;
 MRF plans to increase its revenue to around Rs.20,000-22,000 crore by FY2021. To back this target:
MRF plans to invest around Rs.800-1,000 crore every year on products and brown field expansion. And, it
also expects Rs.4,000 crore facilities in Gujarat to go live by 2020;

Outlook and Valuation


 MRF, with a minuscule equity capital of Rs.4.24 crore (Face Value Rs.10), leadership in the tyre industry,
strong balance sheet and strong exposure to the replacement market gives us a solid confidence in its
long-term growth outlook for the stock. The stock at the current market price trades at 16.7x its FY2019E
EPS of Rs.4,000.

16 NESCO Ltd. 441 600


Rationale for Investment
 NESCO is a long term wealth creator. This stock is a play on its rich land bank - NESCO reportedly holds 65-70
acres of land totally and in our estimate, it is worth Rs.7,000 crore;
 Mumbai city’s landscape is v-shaped and encircled by water on three sides. It is hard to find sizeable free
land within city. With recent liberalization of land use by the government and with huge land bank
of NESCO, we visualize the fortunes of NESCO changing in very big way in the next 3 to 10 years.
 Currently, NESCO has 0.63 mn sq. ft of Exhibition & Convention and 0.78 mn sq. ft of leased IT Park - which
will be expanded to 1.87 mn sq. ft by December 2018. NESCO has started harnessing the business
opportunities surrounding its rental & exhibition business by getting into hospitality services viz. Food Courts,
Catering and day care centres. We believe that the revenue potential of NESCO's Land Bank and allied
businesses will create immense value for the shareholders.

Outlook and Valuation


 NESCO, despite huge cash on the books (Rs.509 crore), rich land bank and promising outlook in terms of earning
growth due to expansions, it trades at 14.6x its FY2019 Annualized EPS of Rs.30.16.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


17 South Indian Bank 16 20
Rationale for Investment
 SIB reported double digit credit growth of 15.6% yoy in Q2FY2019, above the industry credit growth
rate.
 It has consistently increased the network of branches from 794 in FY2014 to 857 now which has help
the bank improve its business per branch.

Outlook and Valuation


 Trades at 6% discount to its estimated FY2019 adjusted book value of Rs.17.80/. We firmly believe that
SIB doesn’t deserve such a steep discount to its adjusted book value. We recommend a BUY on SIB with a
short-term target price of Rs.20/ which is 1.1x FY2019E Adjusted Book Value. We continue to believe that in the
long-term (with around 3 year’s investment perspective), this stock can possibly become a multi-bagger.

18 Vijaya Bank 50 78
Rationale for Investment
 Its latest Net Non-performing assets (NPAs) remains the lowest among 21 listed-PSU banks;
 The bank maintains double-digit credit growth at 37.2% yoy, better than industry credit growth;

Outlook and Valuation


 Trades at 20% discount to its adjusted book value (as per the balance sheet) as of Q2FY2019, cheapest PSU Bank;
 Vijaya Bank has delivered a healthy operating performance over the past couple of quarters (on NII, CASA, retail
loan growth, cost efficiency, etc.). Growth in retail loan book is driving earnings momentum for the bank.

19 YES Bank 181 300


Rationale for Investment
 Yes Bank stock till recently used to trade around 4x adjusted book value – in our firm view, the dip in profit
growth and change of CEO are all in price already and there is no need to panic on the stock, which is already
down by 55% from its 52-week high.
 The bank the current market price trades at 1.5x its Q2FY2019 Adjusted Book Value of Rs.109.6 and at 1.4x its
FY2019E Adjusted Book Value of Rs.120.
 Its Net NPA remains one of the lowest in the industry at around 0.84%. Gross non-performing assets
(NPAs), as a percentage of total advances, were also at just 1.61% in the September quarter. This is substantially
lower than a vast majority of the banks in the industry.
 As on September 30, 2018, YES Bank has got a network of 1,110 branches and ATMs at 1,781 which include 567
Bunch Note Acceptors/Cash Recyclers;

Outlook and Valuation


 The bank the current market price trades at 1.5x its Q2FY2019 Adjusted Book Value of Rs.109.6. We remain
confident that like 2013, this time too YES Bank stock would recover substantially in the medium to long
terms.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


20 Cyient Ltd 623 800
Rationale for Investment
 Has been on an acquisition spree from last 2 quarters and have acquired companies in new age business and
digital domain;
 Cyient has unique business model and different area of practice as compared to other IT services companies. It is
basically an engineering service and solution providing company. Cyient operates under five vertical Viz.
Engineering, Design led manufacturing, Network Operations, Analytics, and Geospatial;
 Outsourcing of engineering services is expected to reach $38-50 billion by FY2020E compared with $2 billion
now, as per a Nasscom-Booz Allen Hamilton study. As one of the leading offshore engineering services firms for
the manufacturing industry, Cyient is poised to grab the increasing opportunities;

Outlook and valuation


 Cyient is a market leader in engineering services in the aerospace and railways verticals, which constitute 50% of
its total revenue. At current momentum, we expect Cyient to continue leading industry growth, and over the
longer term, it remains well placed to address opportunities in the Engineering and Defense segments. The
company remains cheapest in the mid-cap IT space with an EV/Sales of 1.3x as compared to peers trading at 1.8-
2.8x its EV/Sales;

21 Engineers India Limited 125 160


Rationale for Investment
 Engineers India Ltd (EIL) is a leading global engineering consultancy and EPC company. Established in 1965, EIL
provides engineering consultancy and EPC services principally focused on the oil & gas and petrochemical
industries.
 Acquisition of PDIL to bring synergy in the fertilizer business: EIL has recently made a bid for acquiring 100%
stake in another public undertaking-PDIL Ltd. Currently PDIL is under the Ministry of Chemicals &Fertilizers.
Founded in 1978, PDIL provides design engineering and consultancy services. It serves fertilizer and allied
chemical industries, oil and gas sector, power and infrastructure sectors in India and internationally.
 After the recent offer for sale, governments holding in EIL has come down to 52.02% which reduces
the possibility of any significant fresh dilution by the government to almost NIL, in our view;
 Its net cash stands at around 33% of its current market cap;

Outlook and Valuation


 Given that EIL is attractively placed as a strong early cyclical play, with robust demand outlook & the surging oil &
gas capex to drive a much longer and larger capex cycle. Most of these will be driven by domestic OMCs like HPCL-
Barmer (Rajasthan), West Coast refinery, IOCL-Paradip petchem expansion, Numaligarh refinery, among others.
EIL will continue to benefit from investments in downstream hydrocarbon and fertilizers. We expect an EPS of
around Rs.8 for FY2020 and arrive at a target price of Rs.160/, based 20 PE.

22 Hindustan Petroleum Cor. Ltd (HPCL) 257 400


Rationale for Investment
 We believe that OMCs will be able to make normative margins and recoup margins as they have in the past. The
potential acquisition of ONGC’s stake in MRPL by HPCL could also reduce the susceptibility of the company’s
earnings, bring economies of scale, and reduce operating costs besides expanding its product mix.
 HPCL is currently operating 3,370 Km of Pipelines with mainline capacity of 23.21 MMTPA and branch line
capacity of 10.32 MMTPA. Its pipeline network is the second largest in the country. In addition to
above, HPCL is also operating specialty product pipelines for transportation of Black Oil and Lube Oil. Pipeline
capacity expansion remains a major focus area for HPCL and projects are underway with a capital expenditure of
Rs.2,601 crore which are envisaged to be completed within next 3 years.

Outlook and Valuation


 We believe that HPCL will gain more from the expected oil price fall as it derives a larger chunk of its margins from
the oil marketing operations. Our firm contention is that all negatives are in stock price, which is down
already by 46% from its 52-week high. The stock trades at mere 8.1x FY2019E EPS of Rs.30/-.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


23 Mahindra Logistics Ltd 522 670
Rationale for Investment
 Mahindra Logistics is one of India’s largest 3PL logistics companies which were established as a division
of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) in 2000. It was de-merged into a 100% subsidiary, Mahindra Logistics Limited in
2008.
 Post-GST implementation, ML has built 6.5 lakh square-feet (sq ft) of warehouse space. It has set a target
to build one million sq. ft by the year-end, and expand to 5 million sq ft in the next 3 years;
 It expects Rs.4,000 crore revenue for FY2019, which is about 18% yoy growth. Most importantly, ML expects
to maintain a margin growth of 50 bps yoy over the next few years;
 Mahindra Logistics (ML) also plans to add half a million square sq ft of warehousing space before the end
of FY2019 and around 1 million sq. ft in total in the next one year.
 Mahindra Logistics’ retail float stands at just 8.25% as of Sept 30, 2018.

Outlook and valuation


 We remain very optimistic on Mahindra Logistics – we expect it to be a solid growth stock with huge opportunities
from the logistic space, backed by most efficient M&M Group management. The stock at the current market price
trades at 40x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.13 which is largely due to its best in class pre-tax Return on Capital Employed
(ROCE) of 25.32% as of FY2018, superior growth potential and strong balance sheet (net cash as of Rs.90 crore).

24 Persistent Systems ltd 625 850


Rationale for Investment
 Persistent System, in terms of valuation, remains as one of the most attractive stocks in the mid-sized IT
space. It trades at 1.1x Enterprise Value to Annual revenues.
 Currently, the company derives ~80% of its revenue from North America, and ~12% from Europe as of end-
Q1FY2019. Persistent is expanding its business in Europe, as is evident from the acquisition of PARX, a Salesforce
Certified Platinum Partner in the DACH market of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.
 The company plans to hold the cash in the context of the acquisitions, and other facets they are looking at for
growth.

Outlook and valuation


 The stock at the current market price trades at 13.8x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.45. With services revenue gaining
steam, digital growth set to further accelerate, stabilizing Accelerite and huge Europe opportunity, significant
revenue acceleration looks imminent. Persistence’s focus strategies like digital transformation, technologies to
build software driven businesses (especially on Data, Digital and IoT), partnerships and large enterprise
accounts also makes us bullish on the future growth prospects of the Company.

25 SML Isuzu Ltd 664 1,000


Rationale for Investment
 ML manufactures trucks and buses for the Indian markets.
 Sumitomo Corporation, a Japanese Conglomerate is the promoter, holding 43.96% stake in the
company. Sumitomo has diversified operations across a number of industries including metal products, media,
network, and lifestyle goods and services, transportation and construction systems, mineral resources, energy,
chemical, electronics, environment and infrastructure with assets worth over $78 billion.
 SML started regular production on the new assembly line, having total investment of Rs.22.4 crores, the
production capacity of the Plant increased by 33% from 1500 vehicles per month (18000 vehicles per
annum) to 2000 vehicles per month (24000 vehicles per annum) effective 1st August 2018.

Outlook and Valuation


 SML Isuzu has been investing to upgrade its technology, improve plant infrastructure and expanded its capacity
(from 18,000 units to 24,000 units). Post a dismal performance in FY2018 due to a series of events like BSIV
implementation and GST, we expect strong recovery in volume growth for the company in FY2019 on account of
series of new planned launches. At the current market price the stock trades at 23.3x its FY2019 Annualized EPS
of Rs.28.54.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


26 Tata Sponge Iron Ltd 866 1,000
Rationale for Investment
 Tata Sponge Iron is a subsidiary of Tata Steel and has sponge iron production capacity of 4.25 lakh tonne in
Orissa with 26 MW of waste heat recovery based captive power. The company has impressive track record and
maintains consistent quality. Tata Sponge produce and market sponge iron, which is a single end use (steel
making) and a single grade product.
 Tata Sponge is acquiring USHA Martin as ML appears right fit for TSIL as it provides TSIL the right scale of growth
through an inorganic route and given the fact that TSIL was increasingly looking for captive assets and long
product basket for its growth.
 We believe that that combined entity should command a higher PE multiple due to its unique positioning in the
long products segment, healthy balance sheet, strong backward integration and solid platform of future growth.
Also, the government thrust on infrastructure and construction would continue to generate stronger demand for
iron & steel and for that matter for sponge iron.

Outlook and Valuation


 We believe TSIL to continue the trajectory of sustainable volume and sales realization. The company has
performed above industry average even during the weak economic environment helped by the company's strong
brand image and management. At the current market price, the stock trades at 7.5x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.100. We
firmly believe that the prospects of sponge iron industry would improve substantially.
2. Defensives & Others
Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price
27 Bharti Infratel Ltd 259 400
Rationale for Investment
 The stock price of Bharti Infratel is down by around 31% from its 52W High on concerns of losing tenancy on account
of Idea and Vodafone merger. However, we believe that this correction is overdone and it’s an opportunity for
investors to accumulate this large cap at the current prices.
 Its merger with Indus will also reduce the costs and improve the valuation multiple. This merger will create the
world’s largest telecom tower company with about 163,162 towers, across the country, behind only China
Tower and will also give better pricing power;
 Telecom tower is emerging a precious resource in this country and this business model is akin to rental
revenue stream of real estate – in our firm view, these tower rentals will keep on rising over the years in
future in line with inflation in the economy.

Outlook and Valuation


 With rich tower asset, significant growth opportunities in the business and strong balance sheet Infratel trades at 17x
its FY2019 Annualized EPS of Rs.15.2.

28 Coal India Ltd 242 315


Rationale for Investment
 CIL has a strong track record of consistent dividend payments and the payout ratios have ranged between
85%-135% in the last three years on lower base of earnings. Cash per share as of September 30, 2018
stands at Rs.61.
 We see cash accretion of Rs.3,000 crore in H1FY2019 a big positive for CIL as it not only improves cash
conversion, but also frees up funds for potential dividend payment.
 The company enjoys a near-monopoly position in the lucrative coal market and is more of a utility player due to
assured volume off-take, pseudo regulated pricing and minimal chance of a product price cut, as prices already
remain at ~30-35% discount to current international benchmark prices.

Outlook and Valuation


 We expect CIL to deliver strong earnings growth over FY2019-20E led by i) better demand and volume, ii) robust
FSA pricing on the back of price increases and better grade compliance and iii) healthy share of auction linked
volumes with higher e-auction realizations supported by favourable global coal prices.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


29 Indraprastha Medical Corp. Ltd 39 55
Rationale for Investment
 Indraprastha Medical Corporation (IML) is one of the largest corporate hospitals in the world and Apollo group
holds 25% in the company. It is the third super specialty tertiary care hospital set by the Apollo Hospitals Group,
jointly with the Government of New Delhi in 1996.
 A state –of- the art modern facility in the heart of the capital, it is spread over 15 acres and has a built-up area of
over around 6,00,000 so ft;
 Gives a dividend yield of 3.2% on current market price;

Outlook and Valuation


 Indraprastha Medical Corp (IML) being a defensive play in healthcare sector, is also an appropriate stock for long
term investors at the current market price. We consider this stock as highly defensive stock with opportunity to
grow the return consistently over the long period. Provides close to 4% dividend yield and this healthcare stocks
trades at just about 12 rimes FY2019E EPS of Rs.3.2/

30 KCP Sugar and Industries Corp. Ltd. 18 40


Rationale for Investment
 KCP Sugar has two sugar plants with total capacity of 11,500 tcd (tonne crushing per day) of sugar and a distillery
with a capacity of 50,000 MTs BL per day. It is also engaged in the manufacture of industrial chemicals and co-
generation of power. It also reportedly got surplus land on Mount Road in Chennai which is, in our view,
significantly higher (in value) than the companies’ market cap. Apart from this, the company reportedly owns
several residential properties in Chennai, Hyderabad and Industrial site with buildings in Industrial Estate TADA,
Andhra Pradesh.
 Least Leveraged in the sugar space. While many sugar mills finance 3/4th of sugar inventories through
borrowed capital, KCP Sugar finances them primarily through own funds;

Outlook and Valuation


 In our view, its replacement cost of plants and real estate assets individually more than the enterprise value of the
company. This stock has the potential multi bagger, if it could unlock value from its surplus land banks. We believe
that when sugar business turns around in 2019 possibly, this should reward the investor substantially. The stock
trades at 0.95x its EV/Sales which is quite attractive.

31 Lupin Limited 843 1,050


Rationale for Investment
 Stock price of Lupin is down by around 55% from its last 3-year peak which we believe is overdone and this
makes this large cap an attractive buy for long term investors.
 Even the recent rupee depreciation makes stock like Lupin an attractive buy as every rupee
depreciation Lupin expects to add Rs.40 crore to its bottom line according its CFO;
 The company is also confident of meeting its $800-850 million US sales forecast for FY2019 on the back of
new launches. It expects to launch 20-25 products annually for the next three years. The company also expects
the US Food and Drug Administration issues related to its Goa and Indore plants to be resolved by the end of this
year.

Outlook and valuation


 We remain positive on long term outlook of the company considering (i) the expected pickup in base US sales from
FY2020 given its strong pipeline of ANDA filings, (ii) outperformance in domestic formulations vs the industry
with growth recovery seen in recent quarters, and (iii) gradual margin recovery from current levels following the
revenue growth. The stock trades at 23.8x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.35.5.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


32 Dai Ichi Karkaria Ltd 222 375
Rationale for Investment
 The company set up over half a century ago by the Neterwala Group promoted by noted entrepreneur Dhunjishaw
Neterwala, is a well-known manufacturer of speciality chemicals, surfactants and speciality polymers
 Dai Ichi Karkaria has two manufacturing units at Pune and is expanding its 3rd plant in Dahej, Gujarat where the
company has already started production from its Phase-I unit;
 The company has joined hands with Nalco Champion (now a part of the Bill Gates Group), to promote a 50:50 JV -
Champion Dai-Ichi Technologies India, that services and supplies the Indian oil field and refinery chemical market
in India. The company invested Rs.68 lakhs in this JV and no it has a turnover of Rs.22.62 crore;
 Dahej plant is set to emerge as a game changer. Once fully functional, it will double the capacities of the company's
Pune plants, manufacturing diverse products to world class standards for the specialized needs of customers;
 It plans to grow the emulsifier business for Agro Chemicals by 40% in the coming year. In addition, it hopes to see
substantial organic growth in the Construction Chemical Area;
Outlook and Valuation
 The industries which the company caters to have great potential to grow which translates into a higher growth
potential for Dai Ichi. Company has posted loss in the current year partly due to expansions of capacities. Once
expansion is stabilized, we expect the company to return to impressive EPS of around Rs.25 within two years.
Hence, we expect a target price of Rs.375/ within two years which is 15 PE on FY2021E EPS of Rs.25/.

33 HDFC Bank Limited 1,547 2,671


Rationale for Investment
 HDFC Bank continues to remain as a dependable growth stock in the large cap space for the medium to long-
terms.
 Investment in branches and employees is fastest among peer banks. Over the past two years, it has added 33% to
its branch network, 28% to the employee base, invested in digital, and been aggressive on the corporate side. All
of these should lead to strong growth. A key measure has been CASA (low cost deposits) deposits: despite a strong
base and the fact that it pays just 4% vs. peers 6%.

Outlook and valuation


 The bank at the current market price trades at 5.5x its price to Q2FY2019 adjusted book value. We believe
that HDFC Bank will continue to deliver such impressive consistent double-digit profit growth at least for another
20 quarters as HDFC Bank remains as the unique bank in the country – growing such a large base of credit
(over Rs.6 lakh crore) at 20+%, and maintaining the Net NPA at 0.4%. The bank’s consistent performance,
strong growth in loan book, relatively stable asset quality and the leadership position in Retail Banking make it
one of the better picks in the banking space.

34 Mahindra & Mahindra Limited 803 1,000


Rationale for Investment
 “Over the long term, ICRA continues to maintain a long term CAGR estimate of 8-9% for the tractor
industry, with the long-term industry drivers for the industry continuing to remain intact. This is a positive
development for M&M as it has ~54% market share in the domestic tractor segment;
 The company has planned a capital expenditure of Rs.15,000 crore for three years, of which Rs.10,000 crore
will be used for product development and remaining Rs.5,000 crore for investments;
 Many companies, which are under Mahindra and Mahindra, can be listed in recent future. “Several billion-
dollar babies are lying in M&M’s umbrella and company wants them to move to the stock market and start the
value creation process in the next few years.
 M&M plans to invest Rs.900 crore over the next 3 to 4 years in technology & products for EVs.
 Holds many JVs and Subsidiaries: They have potential to turnaround in the long-term;
 Holds 5 Research and Development and Design Subsidiaries;

Outlook and Valuation


 We believe that in the long term, M&M would be able to turnaround global operations in a significant way.
Recovery in rural markets and the recent investments done by the company improves visibility of recovery in
volumes in both core businesses on the domestic front. At the current market price, the stock trades at 16.6x its
FY2019E EPS of Rs.48.3.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


35 Nagarjuna Fertilizers (NFCL) 9 35
Rationale for Investment
 NFCL is a leading manufacturer and supplier of plant nutrients in India. Urea, the widely used nitrogenous
fertilizer is both manufactured and marketed through imports (at Vizag and Kakinada Ports).
 Has again started production at its plant and has gone into debt resolution process with the bankers;
 Since cultivable land is continuously shrinking and population keep growing, the prospects for
the fertilizer business remain robust in the long-term in the country. This is one of the reasons for us to
remain optimistic on Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals.
 The company’s Urea capacity stands at 15.19 lakh tonnes per annum and has two ammonia plants with a
capacity of 8.6 lakh tonnes. In our view, the replacement cost of setting up urea plant with a capacity of
over 15 lakh tonnes should be more than 2 times the enterprise value of NFCL.
 Its book value as of September 2018 stands at Rs.18;

Outlook and Valuation


 We believe that this stock could be a possible multi-bagger, if it joins the consolidation process. It trades at 0.5x its
EV/Sales.

36 Oberoi Realty Limited. 455 568


Rationale for Investment
 Oberoi Realty (Oberoi) is a Mumbai-focused premium real estate developer, with a sharp focus on delivery of
quality products.
 Over the years the company has developed over 41 projects at strategic locations across the Mumbai skyline
aggregating about 11.57 million sq. ft. of spaces (group entity including promoter group). With another 27.75
million sq. ft. in the making, the company has aggressive plans for upcoming projects in various parts of Mumbai
and other regions.
 Oberoi also enjoys a strong leasing and profitable hospitality portfolio wherein it has Commerz I & II
(Commercial Space), Oberoi Mall (Retail Property) and The Westin Mumbai Garden City (Hospitality).
 Oberoi’s retail floating stock stands at less than 3% as of June 2018. In the Indian equity markets, we have
observed a strong correlation between the low retail float (excluding the holding of promoters and
institutional investors including the holding of corporate bodies) and the stock valuation multiples.
 Oberoi is best placed amongst its western peers on account of its superior land bank quality, access to
finance (recently mobilized Rs.1,200 crore through QIP), healthy balance sheet (net debt at mere Rs.814
crore with a net worth of around Rs.7,000 crore), and greater potential for a successful foray into newer
markets;

Outlook and Valuation


 We recommend Oberoi due to: steep jump in revenues and profits expected from FY2020 due to delivery of many
new projects; strong balance sheet (net-debt-to equity of 0.3x), with ample room for leveraging to buy new land;
and strong brand equity, which helps it to command premium pricing and enter into JD/JV contracts ahead. It
trades at 19.1x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.23.8.
37 Siemens Ltd 1,042 1,275
Rationale for Investment
 Siemens is an integrated technology providing hub in the domain of electrification, automation and digitalization.
It is a subsidiary (75% stake) of Siemens Aktiengesell schaft (SAG). SAG, the parent company has a spread
across 190 countries with approximately 285 production and manufacturing facilities. The company has
the most broad-based product portfolio among engineering companies in India.
 The company is yet to announce the consideration for these divestments. We expect attractive consideration
for these units, otherwise it could attract the wrath of minority shareholders. Siemens is debt-free company and
sitting on a free cash of around Rs.3,700 crore. In our view, it could possibly reward the shareholders with
impressive special dividend once it receives the consideration.
 Siemens will continue to be among the best plays on investments and a good way to participate in India's quest to
move up the technology ladder. Siemens will gain more importance and relevance as Indian industry begins to
adopt high technology in the areas of power, emission, smart cities, and digital manufacturing

Outlook and Valuation


 At the current market price, the stock trades at 38.6x its FY2018 EPS of Rs.25.31. Siemens has not traded at such
steep discount in a long-time and offers excellent investment opportunity.

Continued on Next Page…


Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser
31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


38 Syndicate Bank Ltd. 39 70
Rationale for Investment
 The bank has undertaken a large-scale transformation project – named “Project Ananya”. Project Ananya is
a two-year large-scale transformation project undertaken by the bank to provide customers with ‘best in
class’ services while improving and modernizing the whole bank.
 In an interview, Syndicate Bank’s MD and CEO said that, Syndicate Bank would focus on improving its asset
quality during the current financial year. The aim is to bring down gross non-performing assets (NPA) to 8.75%
and net NPAs to 5% in the near future;

Outlook and valuation


 The bank is expected turnaround its performance due to increase in low cost current and savings accounts
deposits as well as improved credit offtake on account of the capitalization. We believe its book value can grow to
Rs.60 in 2 years on recovery in its Net NPAs and improving performance. Assuming 1.17x its Adjusted Book Value
of Rs.60 we come to a target price of Rs.70/-.

3.Deep Value
Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price
39 Kiran Vyapar Ltd (KVL) 110 180
Rationale for Investment
 KVL is sitting on rich investments and stock is available at steep discount and paying quite decent dividend of
Rs.2.50 per share;
 It has invested in several unquoted reputed venture capital funds;
 On a consolidated basis, the companies quoted and unquoted investments (in shares, debentures and mutual
funds, PMS, Venture Funds, etc.) stands at Rs.745.17 crore at cost. KVL’s Enterprise Value is around 50% discount
to its investments;
 KVL has also made substantial investments in its group companies viz., Placid, Navjyoti Commodity Management
Services (Navjyoti) and LNB Renewable Energy (LRE):

Outlook and Valuation


 The stock trades at 0.3x its FY2018 Consolidated Book Value of Rs.382.6 and at 3.8x its FY2018 EPS of Rs.28.25.
We see enormous potential in terms of unlocking values from its investments in quoted stocks and also from the
investments made in innovative businesses of its Group Companies. If our vision on such unlocking really unfolds,
then it can become a multi-bagger in about 3 years;
40 JOCIL Ltd 123 200
Rationale for Investment
 Jocil Ltd is the subsidiary of Andhra Sugars Ltd and has over 30 years of experience in the field of
manufacture of Stearic Acid Flakes, Fatty Acids, Toilet Soap, Soap Noodles and Refined Glycerine. Stearic Acid
Flakes are available in various grades for use in Pharmaceuticals, Cosmetics, Textiles, Paints, Plastics, Tyres, Tread
Rubber, Metal Polish and Other Industries. The company also undertakes to manufacture Soap Noodles and Toilet
Soap on job work for reputed customers.
 JOCIL is also engaged in the business of generating power from biomass and wind - IT has 6 MW Biomass
Cogeneration Captive Power Plant located within the factory premises and the surplus power is sold to
APSPDCL. JOCIL also has four Wind Energy Generators (WEGs) of total 6.30 MW set up in Tamil Nadu and
the power generated from these plants is sold to Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Ltd.
(TANGEDCO).
 JOCIL has a continuous unbroken dividend paying record since FY1989;
 The company has land of over 100 acres and godowns of 4,800 sq.mtr. Its Storage capacity stands at 6,400 cu. mtr
for Raw Oil while 5,800 cu. mtr for Intermediate tanks and is well connected by road, rail and air;

Outlook and Valuation


 JOCIL stock trades at 0.4x its Market Cap/ Sales, whereas many other chemical stocks are trading at ~1x its
Market Cap/ Sales.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


41 Lakshmi Mills Company Ltd 2,975 5500
Rationale for Investment
 Lakshmi Mills Company is a Coimbatore-based 108 years old textile company established in the year 1910. The
company closed its Singanallur unit in 2005, and its unit in Coimbatore in December 2008 and decided to turn the
land over for property development.
 It holds 5.2 lakh shares of Lakshmi Machine Works (LMW) worth ~Rs.300 crore at the current market price
(almost 1.4x its current market cap).
 The company also has a considerable land bank right at the heart of Coimbatore city - as per the annual report of
FY2018- the land rendered available for development and converted into stock in trade has a carrying amount of
Rs.106.07 crore.

Outlook and Valuation


 It is a play on its deep value in terms of rich investments in Lakshmi Machine Work shares and land bank.

42 Rajapalayam Mills Ltd. 755 1,100


Rationale for Investment
 Rajapalayam Mills is part of reputed Ramco Group. RML commenced operations with 6000 spindles in 1938. Now
it has four textile units – 3 in the state of Tamil Nadu and one in Andhra Pradesh.
 It is a play on its deep value in terms of rich investments in Ramco Cements (holds 13.82% stake i.e. 3.29 crore
shares), Ramco Industries (holds 9.7% i.e. 84.01 lakh shares) and Ramco Systems (holds 2.41% stake i.e. 7.33 lakh
shares). The value of investments Rajapalayam Mills holds in group companies is 3x its Enterprise Value (market
cap plus net debt).
 RML has wind mills with installed capacity of 35.15 MW for its captive power consumption. During FY2018, the
company was able to consume electricity from its own wind power to the extent of 71% of total power
requirements.

Outlook and Valuation


 Rajapalayam Mills can emerge as a multi bagger in the long run. Any possible unlocking of its investments in
group companies or substantial recovery in the stock price of Ramco Cements or narrowing down of discounting
of value of investments can give significant upside to the stock price of Rajapalayam Mills.

43 Sharda Motor Industries Ltd 1,518 2400

Rationale for Investment


 Incorporated in 1986, Sharda Motor Industries Ltd (SMIL) is part of the Relan Group. It manufactures automotive
components and white goods and has 13 manufacturing facilities across India. Apart from 13 manufacturing
units, it has one R&D Centre.
 The company has an excellent balance sheet: its net cash stands at Rs.177 crore and also holds 28.66% in
Bharat Seats Ltd which at current market prices is valued at ~Rs.197 crore. The value of investments and
free cash alone form 29% of its current market cap;
 The promoters ‘stake in the company is very high at around 73%;

Outlook and valuation


 In our view, it is a very attractive stock considering the prospect of automobile sector, its debt-free & cash rich
status (free cash is Rs.177 crore) and rich notional investment gain in an auto-component company.

Continued on Next Page…

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics

Sr No. Company CMP* Target Price


44 Sutlej Textiles and Industries Ltd 42 80
Rationale for Investment
 Sutlej Textiles and Industries Ltd (STIL), is one of India’s largest spun dyed yarn manufacturer. Over the years, the
Company has also successfully carved out a niche for itself and is holding leadership position in the dyed yarn and
cotton mélange yarn segment.
 STIL has a strong global clientele and exports to more than 60 countries. It has presence across major developed
and emerging economies.
 Brownfield capacity expansion plan with 28,800 spindles at Baddi, Himachal Pradesh, at a cost of Rs.215 crore
is likely to commence production by end of FY2019;
 Invested around Rs.60 crores during FY2018 towards technology up-gradation and debottlenecking, etc. This will
result in further improvement in efficiency and sustaining plant utilization and Intends to deploy further amount
of Rs.95 crore during FY2019 towards technology upgradation and debottlenecking etc;
It holds 5.2 Sutlej completed the acquisition of Birla Textile Mills from Chambal Fertilizers in September
2015 which added to its capacity adding 83, 376 spindles to produce 60 tonnes per day of spun yarn to the
portfolio.
 STIL has increased its yarn capacity consistently by nearly 2.5x since FY2005 to 4.16 lac spindles till date.
The expanded capacity is fully dedicated towards production of value-added cotton melange yarn, which
would improve the segment's overall realization and margins;

Outlook and Valuation


 Its recent modernization and expansion programs should take the company to a significant growth path
from FY2020. The stock trades at attractive valuation of 7.7x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.8.50. Sutlej Textiles &
Industries, with recent acquisitions and expansions is in a formidable position to grow its fundamentals
substantially in the next 2 to 3 years.

Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Limited - Investment Adviser


31 December 2018
Equinomics
Morning Insight | Equinomics Research & Advisory Private Ltd

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Ratings and Other Definitions

Definitions of ratings:
BUY- We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.

ACCUMULATE- We expect this stock to deliver 5-10% returns over the next 12 months.

HOLD- We expect this stock to deliver 5% returns over the next 12 months.

SELL- Above Target Price. *Wait for stock update when target price reached.

Our Target Prices are also on a 12 month horizon basis. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark. Closing stock prices
are available on www.bseindia.com (http://www.bseindia.com/markets/equity/EQReports/StockPrcHistori.aspx?expandable=7&flag=0).
Please go to this link to download the 3 year price data.

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