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auGust 1-15, 2018, Vol. 18, Issue 3, No. 114 A De v e l op m e n t A n D e n v i ron m e n t m Ag A z i n e

GeoGraphy and you

changing

wORLD EvEnts that mattEr

 Delhi’s Trash Hills  A New Phase in Geological History  The Real

Issue of Sabarimala  Permafrost Meltdown and Climate Change

 Developing Self Sufficiency in Energy Production
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VOL. 18  ISSUE 3 No. 114  AUGUST 1-15 2018

Changing world
4 Permafrost Meltdown and Climate Change
Staff Reporter
As global temperatures rise, ground locked in ice for centuries is
likely to thaw and release greenhouse gases.

10 Meghalayan Age: A new Geological Age within

Holocene
Staff Reporter
Scientists announce a new age in geological history based on
findings from caves in Meghalaya.

14 Local Level Weather Forecasts

Staff Reporter
The new weather prediction of IMD will provide probabilistic block-
level forecasts of extreme rain through a 12 sq km grid across India.

development odds
18 Delhi’s Trash Hills
Staff Reporter
In the absence of waste segregation in Delhi, pollution from landfills
is on a rise, posing various health hazards in the city.

26 The Efficacy of the Plastic Ban: Findings

from States
Staff Reporter
The performance of laws regulating plastic usage in states of
Maharashtra, Delhi and Sikkim has remained lukewarm.

debating rights
PHoTo: PRaSad

32 The Real Issue of Sabarimala

Bastian Steuwer
Conflict between opposing claims to religious freedom is being The total fertility rate as per the NFHS IV (2015-16) has declined to
addressed by the Supreme Court in order to resolve the deadlock. 2.2 from 3.4 in NFHS 1 (1992-93); Mawsynram, Meghalaya.

new energy in Conversation with

42 Developing self sufficiency in energy production
Sanjib Pohit and Sameer Malik 25 Rajagopalan Vasudevan
Renewable energy can bolster India’s self sufficiency, cut down A Padma Shri, Vasudevan developed the making
imports and reduce the increasing dependency on coal. of roads out of plastic waste. Here, he discusses
plastic recycling and the need to change mindsets.

in brief 38 Amitabh Kundu

2 Letters; 3 Editor’s note; 17 IMD to predict Economist and an expert on poverty, urbanisation
lightning strikes; 37 Does India put its PhDs and population, Kundu analyses the NHFS IV and its
to any use?; 48 Books & Websites impacts on the country’s population.

Expert Panel
B Meenakumari Ajit Tyagi Rasik Ravindra Saraswati Raju
Chairperson, Air Vice Marshal (Retd) Former Director, Former Professor, CSRD,
National Biodiversity Former DG, IMD, NCAOR, Jawaharlal Nehru
Authority, Chennai. New Delhi. Goa. University, New Delhi.

Prithvish Nag B Sengupta Sachidanand Sinha D Mukhopadhyay

Former Vice Chancellor, Former Member Secretary, Professor, CSRD, Expert, Applied
MG Kashi Vidyapeeth, Central Pollution Control Jawaharlal Nehru Economics,
Varanasi. Board, New Delhi. University, New Delhi. New Delhi.
 July 16-31, 2018 Issue no. 114: The edition brings forward a plethora of
issues that we currently face in water conservation and management.
India is struggling with its water resources and even the government
geogrAphy And you reports are stating it very clearly. As suggested by many authors
edITor in the issue, I too agree that there is a need for community-level
SuLagNa CHaTTOPaDHyay partnership to uplift the water management ecosystem in the country
senIor advIsors and relieve people of the stress. A partnership between communities
SaraSwati raju and the government has to be forged if India is to solve the fast
raSik ravindra
escalating water problem.—SiDDharth via Customer Feedback
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KRISHNENDu DaTTa
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aDITya SINgH,
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2 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

Editor’s note

The collective effort of humans to organise knowledge has

brought us to an age where inequalities are an accepted norm. Religion
has through history, acted as a catalyst, assisting societies to bind in a
‘sameness’—organising a community. Despite being same in the eyes of
the lord, religion has taught us that it is fine to have a sacred few who are
more human than the others. These exalted beings were therefore granted
influence over every decision that affected a community. Any disruption in
the established order was and continues to be met with discord. Sabarimala
is a case in point. Women down the ages have been relegated to the
Sulagna Chattopadhyay background—the invisible workers whose contribution to the economy of
Founder-Editor, any nation is barely computed. Represented by yet another divide within the
Geography and You, multifarious divides that keep our societies apart, women are that group
New Delhi
of humans who are systematically considered less than equal. While on
one hand women are lauded for taking on a double and sometimes triple
burden of work, home and children, stepping out as they are to engage
with public spaces—on the other, challenging entry into every domain,
especially the religious kind, is hardly acceptable. Perhaps it is time that we
shed our biases hidden under the garb of tradition. Seen in the backdrop of
earth’s millennial history, the existence of humans seem like a blink of the
eye. Human upheavals seem unrealistic and insignificant at a geological
scale—yet ‘Anthropocene’ arrives as does the Meghalayan age, when
humans cease to be in denial of their influence on planet earth. Human
induced changes are altering earth’s geomorphology with humongous
mountains of trash dotting cities such as Delhi, not to mention plastic isles
in the oceans and more. What is surprising however, is how religion finds
itself constrained in reinterpretation, to adapt to a new order, where seeking
human happiness in life or in death is not the only pursuit. Maybe the less
than equal can devise a new path where science replaces dogma and
change becomes the essence.
Happy reading.

GeoGraphy and you  auGust 1 - 15 2018 3

 CH A NGING w or l d

Permafrost meltdown in the

Himalaya can potentially
trigger dramatic changes in
the landscape.

4 august 1 - 15 2018  geography and you 114 issue

 By Staff Reporter

Permafrost
meltdown & climate change
Organic matter in the Himalayas, the Arctic and parts of Southern
Hemisphere are thawing and releasing greenhouse gases. While the
rate of permafrost thaw is subject to differing opinions, it can still
beat every step made towards mitigating global meltdown.
PHoto: Prasad
I
n areas where temperatures rarely rise
above the freezing point of water and the
summer warmth cannot penetrate the
ground to thaw the soil, a frozen layer of
rock, soil or organic material remains
locked in the ground. The geological term for
these layers is permafrost, a term coined by
the American geologist Siemon W. Muller in
1943 (Page et al, 1970). The conditions that are
conducive to the formation of permafrost prevail
in high latitude or high altitude mountainous
areas that cover roughly a quarter of the
earth’s surface—Alaska, Canada and Siberia
in the northern hemisphere. In the southern
hemisphere, permafrost occurs in the Andes
Mountains in South America, the Southern
Alps in New Zealand and almost the whole of
Antarctica. Permafrost occurrence is lower in the
southern hemisphere, with limited land area as
compared to its northern counterpart (National
Snow and Ice Data Centre, 2008).
For a layer of frozen soil to be defined as
permafrost, it has to remain at or below 0 oC for
two consecutive years (IPA, 2006). Permafrost acts
a giant freezer, keeping buried large quantities of
organic carbon, microbes, mercury and methane,
the release of which can potentially accelerate
global warming and climate change (Grosse et
al, 2016). With global temperatures rising, the
thawing accelerates microbial breakdown of
organic carbon and consecutively, the release of
greenhouse gases in the form of carbon dioxide
(CO2) and methane (CH4). A highly potent
greenhouse gas, methane’s potential for warming
the climate is five times than that of carbon
dioxide. The loop is as simple as it is dangerous—
the more the increase in global warming, the
higher the permafrost thaw and so on (ibid).
While the immediate effects of permafrost thaw
are local and visible—such as roads warping
in Alaska and craters opening up in regions of
Siberia and Canada—it is difficult to ascertain
the magnitude and timing of the greenhouse gas
emissions from these regions and
their long term impact on climate change
(Moskvitch, 2014).
The disruptions from permafrost Thaw
As noted by the International Permafrost
Association (IPA), headquarted in the Norwegian
archipelago of Svalbard, permafrost formation
began in the cold glacial periods, persisting
6 august 1 - 15 2018  geography and you 114 issue
through the Holocene (a geological epoch
that began about 11,700 years ago). Shallow
permafrost, at a depth of about 30 to 70 m was
formed during the second part of the Holocene
i.e., during the last 6,000 years and during the
Little Ice Age that lasted 400 to 150 years ago (IPA,
2006). While by definition, permafrost is ground
that has remained below a temperature of 0 oC for
more than two consecutive years, as a geological
phenomenon, permafrost has existed for millions
of years and occupies about 25 per cent of land
area (Fig. 1) in the Northern Hemisphere; the land
area in Southern Hemisphere being lesser, the
occurrence of permafrost is lower.
Currently as much as 1,400 to 1,850 billion
metric tonnes of carbon from plant matter and
animal fossils are trapped in permafrost. This
amount is about half of all the estimated organic
carbon stored in the earth’s soils (NASA, 2013).
As the permafrost thaws, microbial activity
begins to decompose the locked organic matter,
releasing carbon dioxide when the digestion
is aerobic and methane when the digestion is
anaerobic (Schaefer, 2018). The release of these
gases further speeds up the rate of permafrost
thaw (Fig. 2).
Thawing permafrost could potentially release
around 120 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere
by 2100, resulting in 0.29 oC of additional warming
(Schaefer et al, 2014). As we move further in
time, by 2300, the feedback loop from melting
permafrost will result in an additional warming of
about 1.69 oC (MacDougall et al, 2012).
“Permafrost is ground that remains at sub-zero
temperature for two consecutive years, although
a large amount of it has existed for centuries. In
some regions, cities are located on or close to
permafrost. So in the short run, infrastructural
damage in areas close to permafrost is likely to
occur,” Dr Shin’ichi Kuramoto, Director General
at Center for Deep Earth Exploration, Japan, noted
while speaking with G’nY. “Residential areas will
face a crisis as sea levels rise, both from permafrost
thaw and increased global warming, threatening
to submerge land surface close to the seas.”
The studies that have predicted the rate of
thaw, emission of greenhouse gases and increase
in global warming are as per present estimates.
Much debate exists over the rates at which
permafrost thaw can affect global temperatures.
While some scientists have pointed towards
a sudden upsurge in carbon breakdown and
 In the northern hemisphere, regions
where permafrost occupy about 25
per cent of the total land area. Of this,
Continuous permafrost more than 90 per cent is composed
Discontinuous permafrost
Sporadic permafrost
of continuous permafrost, spreading
Isolated patches through large land areas.
Fig. 1: Regions in the Northern Hemisphere covered by permafrost Source: International Permafrost Association

Surface Fig. 2: The feedback loop

temperature created by permafrost thaw
increases
Permafrost thaw begins
Atmospheric with the increase in global
CO2 and methane temperatures, leading to
increase emissions of greenhouse
Vegetation
gases like CO2 and CH4.
These gases further
increase temperatures
causing more thawing and
Active Layer subsequently, emissions.
The active layer takes the
Organic matter burden of rising temperature
thaws and at first instance and most of
Active layer decays the greenhouse gases are
deepens Permafrost emitted from this layer.

emissions in the form of ‘carbon bombs’ (Treat
and Frolking, 2013), others (Schurr et al, 2015)
have countered this idea, instead stating that while
the thaw and consequent emissions are persistent,
they are more likely to be gradual, spread over
decades and centuries (Rosen, 2016).
At the same time, the study (Schurr et al, 2015)
that countered the concept of carbon bombs was
restricted to permafrost on land alone. Scientists
who undertook the study have also pointed out
that subsea permafrost and methane pose an
entirely different set of questions and challenges
(Rosen, 2016). In places like the East Siberian
Arctic Shelf, assessment is much more difficult.
A 2014 study (Shakhova et al, 2014) found that
significant quantities of methane were escaping
from this area as a result of the degradation of
submarine permafrost over thousands of years.

geography and you  august 1 - 15 2018 7

Speaking with G’nY, Dr Parmanand Sharma,
scientist at the National Centre for Antarctic
and Ocean Research, Goa, notes, “The rate
of permafrost thaw and the extent to which it
will contribute to an increase of carbon in the
atmosphere will differ in different areas. In some
regions it may contribute to slight increase in water
flow. But there is no doubt that carbon dioxide
emissions are likely to increase if thawing speeds
up. Even a 0.1 oC increase in global temperatures
will result in a significant amount of permafrost
melt and release of carbon dioxide.”
Mercury release from permafrost
It is not just carbon that lies trapped inside the
layers of permafrost. In the Alaskan region,
scientists recently discovered that besides
carbon, permafrost soils also contain the largest
reservoirs of mercury—a neurotoxin, storing
twice as much of the chemical as all other soils,
the ocean and the atmosphere combined. While
carbon in permafrost is formed by the deposition
and freezing of organic matter, in the case of
mercury, natural mercury in the atmosphere
binds with organic material in the soil, gets buried
by sediment and becomes frozen into permafrost
(Schuster et al, 2018). The study estimated
more than 15 million gallons of mercury in the
northern permafrost soil.
The major threat that mercury poses is its
potential to leach out of the soil into surrounding
waterways. In this case it could be absorbed by
microorganisms and transformed into methyl
mercury, a toxin that can travel up the food chain
and cause neurological effects ranging from
motor impairment to birth defects (American
Geophysical Union, 2018).
permafrost and the Carbon Budget
Carbon budget is the estimated amount of carbon
dioxide humans can emit while still having a likely
chance of limiting global temperature rise to 2oC
above pre-industrial levels. This is the target that
the Paris Agreement intends to achieve (Harvey,
2018). If, on the other hand, we exceed our carbon
budget through unabated emissions, sea levels
could be nearly 1 m higher by 2100, fires in the
Amazon rainforest could almost double by 2050
and annual runoff in the Nile and the Ganga
river basins will increase by roughly 20 per cent,
causing significant flooding (World Resources
Institute, 2014).
8 august 1 - 15 2018  geography and you 114 issue
However, calculations for the carbon budget—
which at the rate of current emissions is likely
to be exhausted in the next 18 years—do not
factor in permafrost thaw. The carbon budget
is likely to be much smaller than previously
thought. The United Nations Emissions Gap
Report 2017 has already recorded that the cuts
in emissions pledged by different nations merely
cover one-third of the actual emission cuts needed
and that if the gap is left unchecked by 2030, it is
highly unlikely that the goal of containing global
warming to below 2oC will be achieved.
If the permafrost thaw is factored in, the
projected carbon and methane emissions are likely
to add to current emissions, further lowering the
chances of keeping the carbon budget in check
(Chaudhary, 2015).
permafrost occurrence in the
himalayan regions
A considerable area of the Himalaya is underlain
by frozen ground and is sensitive to climate
change. Besides the risk of long term emission
of greenhouse gases, significant thawing poses
risks of landslides and avalanches, which will
drastically affect an already altering landscape (Ali
et al, 2018). While glaciers have been substantially
studied in the northwestern Himalaya,
permafrost is not observable spatially and as
such the data available on its conditions in the
Himalayan region is sparse (Gruber et al, 2017).
Some studies (ibid) have used the experiences and
findings made in the Arctic regions to infer what
the features of permafrost in these regions are
and what the effects from thawing will be. While
the Himalayan region is diverse and conditions
therefore vary, there is increasing evidence that
the impacts will be greatly felt on vegetation, water
quality and livelihoods (Ali et al, 2018). In the past
two years however, progress has been made in
estimating the impact of global warming on the
permafrost regimes of the Himalayan realm with
scientists from the National Institute of Hydrology
and Indo-Swiss Indian Himalayas Climate
Adaptation Programme undertaking field
measurements and modelling (Mullick, 2017).
recent developments
As mentioned earlier, the scientific community
is divided on whether the carbon emissions from
permafrost thaw will have a drastic impact on
global temperatures, largely owing to the fact that
there is no defined method of calculating on how
much of permafrost can melt and the quantity of
carbon that can thereby be released.
A July 2018 study conducted in permafrost
zones in Sweden extracted over 1,500 microbial
genomes from intact, thawing and thawed sites
to study the genetic composition of the microbes
that cause the decomposition of carbon. By
understanding the activities and capabilities of
the microbes that cause decomposition, the study
aims at a better estimate of the speed of emissions
and therefore, climate change. This in turn will
help develop a clearer timetable for response
(Woodcroft et al, 2018).
endnote
While permafrost thaw and the rates at which they
can emit greenhouse gases are debatable subjects,
one thing is clear—anthropogenic interventions
and the consequent rise in global temperatures
are drastically affecting the fragile environment
of permafrost regions. If the thawing speeds up,
it is highly unlikely that the goals for containing
carbon emissions and rising global temperatures
will be achieved.
references
American Geophysical Union, 2018. Scientists
find massive reserves of mercury hidden in
permafrost, American Geophysical Union News,
February 5.
Ali Nawaz S., Quamar Firoze M., Phartiyal B. and
Sharma A., 2017. Need for Permafrost Researches
in Indian Himalaya, Journal of Climate Change,
4(1): 33-36.
Chaudhary J., 2015. Melting permafrost could blow
world’s remaining carbon budget, The Third Pole,
December 10.
Grosse G., Goetz S., McGuire A., Romanovsky V.
and Schurr E., 2016. Changing permafrost in
a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth
system, Environmental Research Letters, 11(4).
Gruber S., Fleiner R., Guegan E., Panday P., Schmid
M., Stumm D., ... and Zhao L., 2017. Inferring
permafrost and permafrost thaw in the
mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region,
The Cryosphere, 11: 88-99.
Harvey C., 2018. How the ‘Carbon Budget’ is Causing
Problems, Scientific American, May 22.
International Permafrost Association, 2006. What is
Permafrost?, Available at: https://bit.ly/2K1Vigd
MacDougall A., Avis C. and Weaver A., 2012.
Significant contribution to climate warming
from the permafrost carbon feedback, Nature
Geoscience, 5:719-721.
Mullick R., 2017. Scientists studying the phenomenon
of permafrost in Himalayan Region, The Times of
India, February 12.
Moskvitch K., 2014. Mysterious Siberian crater
attributed to methane, Nature, July 31.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA), 2013. Is Arctic Permafrost the “Sleeping
Giant” of Climate Change?, NASA Science Beta,
June 24.
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC),
2018. All about frozen ground. Available at: bit.
ly/2Hd3TiR
Page B., Silberling N. and Keen A., 1970. Memorial
to Siemon W. Muller 1900-1907, Department of
Geology, Stanford University.
Rosen Y., 2016. Permafrost ‘carbon bomb’ unlikely,
but worries over northern thaw persist,
Anchorage Daily News, September 28.
Schaefer K., 2018. Methane and Frozen Ground,
National Snow and Ice Data Centre.
Schaefer K., Lantuit H., Romanovsky V., Schuur E.,
and Witt R., 2014. The impact of the permafrost
carbon feedback on global climate, Environmental
Research Letters, 9:8.
Schuster P., Schaefer K., Aiken G., Antweiler R.,
Dewild J., Gryziec J., ... and Zhnag T., 2018.
Permafrost Stores a Globally Significant Amount
of Mercury, Geophysical Research Letters.
Schuur, E. A. G., McGuire, A. D., Schädel, C., Grosse,
G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G.,
Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Lawre, ... and Vonk, J. E.,
2015, Climate change and the permafrost carbon
feedback, Nature, 520: 171-179.
Shakhova N., Semiletov, I., Leifer, I., Sergienko V.,
Salyuk A., Kosmach D., ... and Gustafsson Ö.,
2014. Ebullition and storm-induced methane
release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Nature
Geoscience, 7: 64-70.
Treat C. and Frolking S., 2013. A permafrost carbon
bomb?, Nature Climate Change, 3:(865:867)
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Woodcroft B., Singleton C., Boyd J., Evans P.,
Emerson J., Zayed A,, Hoelzle R., ... and Tyson G.,
2018. Genome-centric view of carbon processing
in thawing permafrost. Nature, 560, 49–54.
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Available at: https://bit.ly/2uTpWnq
geography and you  august 1 - 15 2018 9
 CH A NGING w or l d

By Staff Reporter

Meghalayan Age
A New Geological Age within Holocene
The newly incorporated Meghalayan age in the Geological Time Scale
replaces what the scientists called the late Holocene and succeeds
the Northgrippian age. The new age began roughly 4,200 years ago
during a severe drought period, which is what probably wiped out many
civilisations flourishing during the time.

10 august 1 - 15 2018  geography and you 114 issue

 Geologists tested the
stalagmite found in the caves
and discovered an irregularity
at the 4.2 interval; Mawmluh
cave, Meghalaya.
Photo: PRASAD

geography and you  august 1 - 15 2018 11

T
he tiny state of Meghalaya has played
a significant role in deciphering
the history of our planet. The past
4,200 years of the Earth’s history is
today classified as a new distinct age,
the Meghalayan Age. One stalagmite—a rock
formation rising from the floor of the cave, found
in the Mawmluh cave in Meghalaya provided the
clue that led to the discovery of this new age. The
onset of the age was marked by a severe drought
due to which a large number of civilisations across
the world seem to have ceased to exist. The effects
of the drought are speculated to have lasted for
over two centuries and it severely impacted people
in Egypt, Greece, Syria, the Indus Valley, and the
Yangtze River Valley.
First published in June 2012, the concept of the
Meghalayan age was proposed in a discussion
4.2 Interval
paper by a working group of INTegration of
Ice-core, MArine, and TErrestrial records
(INTIMATE), a French focus group, and the
Sub-Commission on Quaternary Stratigraphy,
a constituent body of the International
Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS), the largest
scientific organisation within the International
Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS). The paper
outlined the geological age of the stalagmite
found in the caves, dating it through a process
in which an age is assigned to the target material
and then the history of the earth is calculated
in relation to time and major events in its past
(Fig. 1). This includes break-up of continents
12 august 1 - 15 2018  geography and you 114 issue
and radical changes in the planet’s climate
(Walker M., 2012). After six long years, the
proposal to further break the Holocene into
three ages was finally accepted. On July 13, 2018,
the International Commission on Stratigraphy
(ICS)—the official geological time-keeper,
upgraded the geological charts with the
introduction of the new age. The Meghalayan age
is the new official age that we are living in.
Khadg Singh Valdiya, a renowned Indian
geologist, while expressing his thoughts on the
new geological phase to a G’nY correspondent,
says, “There have been multiple expeditions over
the past few decades to such caves, where scientists
have tried to learn more about the current age
and epoch we are living in. There have been
many expeditions by Indian scientists as well,
who have been testing the stalagmites’ different
components. The results have brought forward a
new geological age, the Meghalayan age, which is
a great honour for the state and our country.”
Stalagmites and stalactites are formed by the
deposition of calcium rich material brought by
the water percolating into caves or any other
sheltered environment. The layers represent each
cycle of deposition that can be dated by isotopic
methods. The cone shaped deposit that grows
from the ground upward is called stalagmite
while the deposit hanging from the roof is
known as stalactite. The geologists that tested the
stalagmites in the caves in Meghalaya discovered
an anomaly at the 4.2 interval, which marked the
beginning of the Meghalayan age.
Geologists have divided the last 4.6 billion
years of Earth’s existence into various slices
of time. The Meghalayan age is the third
division of the Holocene epoch/series, along
with Greenlandian and Northgrippian ages.
The Holocene epoch began roughly 11,700
years before the current time, the period
which is referred to as the Greenlandian age,
which spanned for nearly 3,500 years. The
Northgrippian age came next, spanning about
4,000 years, finally succeeded by the age we
are currently living in—the Meghalayan. The
Holocene epoch, along with the Pleistocene
epoch shapes the Quaternary system/period,
which is part of the Cenozoic era/eraithem,
which in turn is a division of Phanerozoic
eon/eonothem, one of two eons that make
Fig. 1: Mawmluh Stalagmite
The rocks found in the Mawmluh cave in Meghalaya
which led to the inclusion of the new geological age
are known as stalagmites. The stalagmites are formed
by the deposition of calcium-rich material brought
by the water percolating into caves. Stalagmites are
the cone-shaped deposits that grow from the ground
upward. The layers on the stalagmite represent each
cycle of deposition, which can be dated by isotopic
methods. The stalagmite tested in the Meghalayan
caves showed a mismatch at the 4.2 interval.
Geologists believe that a drought occurred 4,200
years ago from the current time, which impacted the
lives of millions. This marked the beginning of the new
Meghalayan age. The Meghalayan age is the third
division of the Holocene epoch/series, along with
Greenlandian and Northgrippian ages.
Source: International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS)
up our planet’s entire history (International
Commission on Stratigraphy, 2018).
The anthropocene
The inclusion of the Meghalayan age is not the only
new geological phase making rounds over the past
few years. Many in fact believe that the influence
of human activity on the planet should be marked
by a new geological classification, which they
tentatively call the Anthropocene epoch. Professor
Jan Zalasiewicz from the University of Leicester,
a consistent supporter of the Anthropocene
epoch and Chairperson of the Working Group
on Anthropocene, in a communication to G’nY
points out: “The subdivision of the Holocene,
now ratified, is independent of the work on the
Anthropocene. However, it does provide useful
context and comparison in our studies of the
Anthropocene, which have been discussed in
lengths. For instance, we have described the
changes we associate with the Anthropocene, for
which we consider the optimal starting point is
the mid-1950s, such as very large perturbations
of the carbon, the production of ‘minerals’ and
‘rocks’ such as metals, plastics and concrete now
on a planetary scale, and increasingly profound
changes to the biosphere. We have suggested
that these are rather larger in scale, and have
much longer-lasting planetary effects than the
sharp, but brief and relatively moderate climate
perturbations that mark the boundaries of the
newly ratified subdivisions of the Holocene. For
this reason, we suggest that the Anthropocene,
considered this way, is a larger scale phenomenon
than the Meghalayan, consistent with the
suggestion that the Anthropocene represents an
epoch-scale event that marks the end of Holocene
conditions on Earth.”
endnote
The inclusion of Meghalayan age adds a
new chapter to the history of the planet. The
Meghalayan age is different from other intervals
of the geological timescale as it commences with
a large-scale climatic event spanning across the
globe. Professor Jan Zalasiewicz summarises,
“Meghalayan age is useful because it gives a
precise definition of these time intervals and so
helps with clear scientific communication. It
should not, though, particularly influence how we
see other ages.”
references
Walker M.C.J., M. Berkelhammer, S. Bjork, L.C.
Cwynar, D.A. Fisher, ... and H. Weiss, 2012.
Formal subdivision of the Holocene Series/
Epoch: a Discussion Paper by a Working Group
of INTIMATE (Integration of ice-core, marine
and terrestrial records) and the Subcommission
on Quaternary Stratigraphy (International
Commission on Stratigraphy), Journal of
Quaternary Science, 27(7): 649-659.
International Commission on Stratigraphy, 2018.
International Chronostratigraphic Chart, Available
at: https://bit.ly/2vBn91L
geography and you  august 1 - 15 2018 13
 Ch a nging w or l d
By Staff Reporter
LocaL LeveL
weather forecasts
With the development of a 12 km probabilistic weather forecasting model, an
unprecedented improvement in forecasting systems has been made by the
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. It is now possible to provide
sufficient lead time for exogenous weather at district or sub-district level.
O
wing to the significant spatial and
temporal variability of weather
patterns, prediction often becomes
a tricky affair. The ways in which
factors determining the weather
over a particular time period—wind, temperature,
relative humidity and pressure—behave, bring in
an uncertainty in determining which conditions
are most likely to have a greater influence on the
weather. Arriving at a conclusive (deterministic)
prediction is therefore a challenge.
However, it is also important to arrive at a strong
probability, if not complete accuracy, in forecasts.
This becomes pertinent in the case of the Indian
South-West monsoons, the variability of which
has long-term impacts on agricultural yield,
economy, water resources and power generation.
Prediction also becomes important for mitigation
of natural disasters like floods or cyclones.
Around the world, forecasting is currently
done using high resolution ensemble prediction
systems. The National Centre of Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) in the United States and the
European Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (ECMRWF), Reading, UK have
relied on these systems for years. Earlier, India
mostly used deterministic, low resolution models
to make forecasts. In the past six years, major
improvements were made. Beginning with
National Monsoon Mission of 2012, the Ministry
of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India,
14 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
sought to achieve high resolution prediction
capability in different space and time scales.
Accordingly, the models used by the NCEP were
identified and attempts were made to establish
an improved operational prediction system for
monsoon in short, medium, extended and long
range time scales.
The first developments began with the adoption
of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) used by the
NCEP. The CFS is a coupled ocean-atmosphere
global modelling system and getting initialised
with data from ocean, atmosphere and land, it
provides long range forecasting (a season ahead).
But since there were other forecast applications at
shorter space and time scale, therefore the Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune,
the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
and the National Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) made further
improvements to it. The CFS version 2 (T382)
provides a horizontal resolution of ~38 km which
is highest in the category of seasonal forecast
model globally and used presently for operational
seasonal monsoon forecast by IMD. Forecast for
a period of 15-20 days (~2 to 3 weeks) was made
possible using a combined global forecast system
(GFS)/CFS 2 system, which proved useful for
agricultural, town planning, prediction of extreme
rainfall events and heat waves over the country.
The next step, taken by IITM and NCMRWF
was the development of an ensemble based high
 Fig. 1: Observed rainfall distribution (upper left panel) and corresponding
48 hour prediction for May 30, 2018. Subsequent panels shows the
probability (in percentage) for different rainfall categories. 1c. GEFS SL T1534 Probabilistic
of Exceedance Precipitation Day-2
1a. IMD GPM Rainfall (cm/day) on MAY 1b. IITM GFS T1534 : Rainfall (cm/day) Forecast valid for MAY 30, 2018
30, 2018 Forecast valid for MAY 30, 2018 Probability of > 2.5 mm/day rainfall

0.1 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 0.1 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 5 25 50 75
1d. GEFS SL T1534 Probabilistic of 1e. GEFS SL T1534 Probabilistic of 1f. GEFS SL T1534 Probabilistic of
Exceedance Precipitation Day-2 Forecast Exceedance Precipitation Day-2 Forecast Exceedance Precipitation Day-2 Forecast
valid for MAY 30, 2018 valid for MAY 30, 2018 valid for MAY 30, 2018
Probability of > 15.6 mm/day rainfall Probability of > 65.5 mm/day rainfall Probability of > 115 mm/day rainfall

5 25 50 75 5 25 50 75 5 25 50 75
1g. GEFS SL T1534 Probabilistic of Exceedance
Precipitation Day-2 Forecast valid for MAY 30,
2018; Probability of > 195 mm/day rainfall
1a. Observed spatial rainfall over different regions of India
1b. GFS 12 km model predicted rainfall
1c. Probability of rainfall greater than 2.5 mm/day
1d. Probability of rainfall greater than 15.5 mm/day
1e. Probability of heavy rainfall, or greater than 65.5 mm/day
1f. Probability of greater than 115 mm/day
1g. Probability of extremely heavy rainfall, 165 mm/day

Maps not to scale

5 25 50 75

resolution model which further increased the
resolution to (~27 km). Subsequently, IITM made
an unprecedented improvement in increasing the
resolution of their probabilistic system by further
increasing the resolution to (~12 km). Another
short range ensemble prediction system at 12 km
resolution based on UK modelling system, has
been established at NCMRWF . These systems,
now being used in India, utilise the global model,
where observations are gathered and data from
across the globe (land and ocean) from various
platforms—satellites, radiosondes, surface
meteorological observations, are all assimilated
at NCMRWF.
Speaking with G’nY, Parthsarthi
Mukhopadhyay, senior scientist at IITM, Pune
notes, “Weather conditions are chaotic in nature
and subject to continual changes and this as such
brings up the chance of errors in forecasting.
With the increase in time of forecast, the errors in

geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 15

Fig. 2: High resolution GFS T1534 (12 km) model Mukhopadhyay explains, it is similar to how a
forecast applications over Indian region. higher resolution camera brings out better details
iin a picture: ““Moree details on the parameters
affecting
ff weather
h behaviour and its variability
can bbe ffound d when
h n such forecast model is used.
Initial condition for
forecast experiment
e e o e itt becomes easier to find the weather
Therefore
Initial condition for variability
bility over specific area and
solar and wind energy egion with greater details.”
region
forecasiting Figure 1 shows a recent
event of heavy rainfall over
Heavy rainfall coastal Karnataka and the
forecast corresponding probability.
Applications of High
Resolution (12 km) Previously, the highest
GFS Model resolution was being used
by the ECMWF (~16 km).
In fact none of the weather
Initial condition for fforecast
cast organisations around the
solar and wind energy District and block level l b generate ensemble prediction
globe
forecasiting forecast for agricultural information
ation on such a scale. The (~12
applications
kkm) resolution
lution is now being used by the
IMD operationally
ationally for issuing 10 days
Initial condition fforecast overer the country and attempts
for hydrological
are being
b g made ade to develop the block level
modeling Cyclogenesis, track and
intensity prediction with fforecast ffor agricultural
gricultural purpose.
3 to 4 days lead time The development
Th ment of high resolution short
range ensemble bl weather prediction system has
providedd d promise se and opportunity for a suite
Map not to scale off other
h applications
ppl ons of weather model output in
The 12 km model can be used for a large range of
the society. The Forest Survey of India, located
practical applications, including forecast for heavy in Dehradun, through utilisation of the 12 km
rain and agricultural operations. weather forecast attempts to monitor/forecast
the possibility of forest fires. Further, in the
backdrop of an increased emphasis on generation
of green energy, especially wind and solar by
the Indian government, this 12 km resolution
forecasts also increase. Due to this, a deterministic model forecast provides the necessary data for
approach —meaning a single model to use for prediction. The variety of applications are shown
weather forecast will have possibility of more in Figure 2.
errors. To avoid this, scientists have developed The development of 12 km resolution weather
ensemble technique where many members of forecast and its probabilistic prediction for 10
a model are being used with slightly different days has brought a significant change in the realm
(perturbed) initial condition to generate a set of of numerical weather prediction capability in the
forecasts instead of a single value (deterministic) country and also enhanced the possibility of a
forecast and from the set of forecasts, probability suite of application to the society which otherwise
of most likely forecast could be generated with a would not have been possible. A timely step of
percentage. Such approach is proven to produce MoES, in procuring two state of the art high
forecast with reduced error and inculcate power computing (HPC) systems—Pratyush at
greater skill.” IITM, Pune and Mihir at NCMRWF, Noida have
The forecast output at high (~12 km) resolution played a key role in accomplishing the ensemble
therefore has better skill as compared to the prediction system at the highest resolution
previous coarser resolution of (~27 km). As available globally.

16 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

 In br Ief
Photo Courtesy: trAPhItho

IMD to predict lightning strikes every 30 Lightning strikes claim the

lives of over 2,000 people in
minutes to help avert mishaps. Following the fatal thunderstorms that struck various parts India each year, according
of the country in the months of May, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute to National Crime Records
of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Bureau data.
(NCMRWF) initiated a project that provides information about lightning strikes pan-India. Colour coded
maps on the IMD website show lightning strike areas and lightning prediction 10, 20 and 30 minutes
in advance. A K Mitra, senior scientist at IMD speaking with G’nY informed, “This system uses the
indigenous satellite INSAT-3D for visualisation of data on lightning. Information on convective and non-
convective clouds can be easily gained and presented on the maps to forecast at what time lightning will
strike a particular location.”
Mitra further notes, “In future, users, forecasters and authorities like the National Disaster
Management Authority can plan for areas that will be affected by severe lightning strike episodes. The
algorithm for this has been used in such a manner that the information can be updated every 15 minutes.
IITM, in fact, is providing this information every two minutes.” Receiving and forecasting data through
this method will be especially helpful in preventing harm to life and property that usually occurs during
events of thunderstorms and lightning.

GeoGraphy and you  auGust 1 - 15 2018 17

 De v el opmen t oDD S

By Staff Reporter

Delhi’s
TrasH Hills
Three humongous landfills of Delhi—Ghazipur, Okhla and Bhalaswa,
are way past their capacity. Yet they continue to grow. As their collapse
appears imminent with each passing day, threatening to sink the
city under its own weight, authorities are suggesting measures for
alternatives spaces that are clearly not viable.

18 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

 Long past its designated
capacity, the landfill at
Ghazipur has collapsed twice.
Photo: Prasad
T
he Indian society is a segregated one,
divided along the lines of caste, class
and religion. Our population crossed
the one billion mark a decade ago
and the demographic dividend it
provides, combined with wealth accumulation
and increase in gross domestic product are often
cited to tout the country’s likelihood of achieving
the status of a global superpower (Haque, Das and
Patel, 2018). And yet our centres of growth, the
metropolitan cities, are in a dismal state of near
collapse when it comes to waste management.
Urban areas are thus characterised not just
by a growing economy and an expanding city
boundary but also by a marked increase of what
we discard. Every day, accumulated garbage enters
those veritable graveyards—landfills. Landfills
that continue to absorb every conceivable form of
trash—organic, recyclable, toxic and more—way
beyond their saturation point and in flagrant
disregard of the judicial direction that permits
only construction waste to be disposed. And
therefore the landfills grow, trapping within them
compostable, recyclable and reusable matter.
Where we ought to integrate, we choose not to,
and what we ought to segregate, we collectively
discard, adding to the mountains of trash that
threatens to collapse and bring the city down
under their weight. The Central Pollution Control
Board, in a review report published in 2016,
recorded that waste generated in the country
amounts to 135,198 tonnes per day (TPD), of
which 47,456 TPD is landfilled.
As a practice, landfilling is still acceptable,
despite the fact that cities have limited availability
of land for waste disposal and designated landfill
sites have been running beyond their capacity for
over a decade. The practice has become especially
problematic in Delhi, a city that generates more
than 9,620 tonnes of waste per day (CPCB, 2016).
Monstrous trash hills
Sanitary landfilling, as defined by the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
is the controlled disposal of wastes on land
in such a way that contact between waste and
the environment is significantly reduced and
wastes are concentrated in a well defined area.
Landfills are built to isolate wastes from the
environment in a manner that renders them
20 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
innocuous through biological, chemical and
physical processes. Anaerobic digestion occurs
in case of wastes buried inside the landfill and the
methane generated through this process is meant
to be captured and used for generating renewable
energy. Unsanitary landfilling, on the other hand
is generally characterised by open dumping, lack
of monitoring of site, stray animals and birds
feeding on the site along with the absence of
leachate or methane collection systems. Organic
waste in unsanitary landfills undergoes anaerobic
decomposition and leads to the emission of
methane.
The rules and provisions
The legal framework for solid waste management
(SWM) in India, as provided by the Solid Waste
Management Rules, 2016, defines sanitary
landfilling as the final and safe disposal of
residual solid waste and inert wastes on a land
in a facility designed with protective measures
against pollution of groundwater, surface water,
bird menace, pests or rodents, and greenhouse
gas emissions. The three landfills in Delhi—at
Ghazipur, Okhla and Bhalaswa—by no stretch of
imagination fulfils the parameters provided by the
UNEP or the SWM Rules, 2016. Recurrent fires,
discharge of polluting gases and landfill slides
repeatedly occur, posing a major health hazard for
residents around the region (Nath, 2016; Sunny,
2017; Sharma, 2017). The primary cause is the
uninhibited practice of non-segregation of waste.
In fact, of the 9,620 tonnes of waste generated
daily in Delhi, a major fraction (~51 per cent) is
compostable, including food, vegetable market
and yard waste; recyclables such as paper, plastic
or glass and inerts such as ash, silt and stones
constitute about 17.5 per cent and 31 per cent of the
waste respectively (Annepu 2012; Sharma, 2017).
However, until 2015, Delhi reportedly had only
one compost plant handling 150 tonnes of waste
per day and an integrated waste processing plant
dealing with 1,250 tonnes of waste per day (DPCC,
2015). The remaining organic waste enters the
landfills in a blatant violation of the SWM Rules.
Under the 2000 SWM Rules, landfilling was
permitted only for non-usable, non-biodegradable
and inert waste that are not suitable for recycling
or biological processing. This point was reiterated
in the revised 2016 SWM Rules (MoEFCC, 2016),

with the addition of pre-processing rejects and
residues to the categories of waste that could be
disposed into the landfills. The Rules also state
that every effort needs to be made to recycle or
reuse the rejects to achieve the desired objective
of zero waste going into the landfill. This also
means that more than half (4,080 tonnes) of the
waste generated in Delhi is legally prohibited
from entering the landfills. However, owing to
the non-segregation of waste and lack of adequate
infrastructure for composting or recycling, almost
the entire waste generated daily in the city enters
the landfill, adding to the woes of the already
saturated sites.
Ghazipur Landfill
As one approaches the site of the Ghazipur
landfill—navigating to what Google maps show as
‘mountain of garbage, Delhi’— an overpowering
stench emanating from the dump site overwhelms
the senses (Fig. 1). Right next to the landfill are
wholesale markets that cater to the entire city
and are constantly teeming with thousands of
people. Significantly, property price, assessed as
a denominator for development, in areas close to
this landfill have taken a sizeable plunge, as can
be seen by the information shared by real estate
dealers on various online housing platforms. In
the Ghazipur Village, it stands at a mere INR 5,000
per sq ft, while at Vasundhara Enclave, a housing
colony bordering Noida and farther located from
Fig 1: Landfill sites at Bhalswa, Ghazipur and Okhla
Mountain of Garbage
MCD dumping ground
MCD dump
Ghazipur Landfill Bhalswa Landfill
Property prices in the
Ghazipur area have taken
a sizeable plunge, despite
the recent development
of the Delhi-Meerut
expressway.
the Ghazipur landfill, the property prices are
about INR 8,000 per sq ft. Moving about 30 km
away from the landfill site of Ghazipur, Vasant
Kunj, in South Delhi shows property prices as high
as INR 20,000 per sq ft.
One could argue that areas in South Delhi are
more developed and ‘posh’, which leads to the
prices being higher. But this argument seems
flawed when we consider the Delhi-Meerut
expressway, the widest in India—an important
infrastructural intervention running through the
Ghazipur area. With high connectivity, property
prices should also have markedly moved up. On
the contrary, the stench and squalor that surround
the area make it uninhabitable and residents can
barely be faulted. The devaluation of property is
another addition to the grim health hazard that
the landfill imposes on the hapless local populace
of the area.
Delhi Jal Board
Paswan Mohall
Chhath Park
Okhla Landfill Source: Google Earth, 2017/18

Photo: Prasad
the constant stench emanating from the landfill has
made the Ghazipur area uninhabitable.
Waste segregation
Segregation of waste was mandated in India
as early as 2000 in the SWM Rules. While the
earlier rules laid the responsibility of segregation
on the municipal authorities, who were
directed to undertake a phased programme to
ensure community participation, the revised
SWM Rules of 2016 shifted the onus to waste
22 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
generators to segregate waste into six separate
categories—biodegradable, non-biodegradable,
domestic-hazardous, sanitary, construction-
demolition and horticulture (MoEFCC, 2016).
Further, bye-laws for solid waste management
in Delhi were enacted earlier this year,
where emphasis was again laid on the waste
generators’ responsibility to segregate waste into
biodegradable, non-biodegradable and domestic
waste at source (NDMC, 2018). But despite the
presence of penal provisions in the bye-laws,
meant to ease separation, recycling of waste, and
preventing biodegradable and recyclable waste
from entering the landfill, the current state of
the three sanitary landfills (at Okhla, Ghazipur
and Bhalaswa) clearly demonstrate an absence of
rigorous implementation by the authorities. In
the absence of segregation, management becomes
cumbersome when organic, toxic and recyclable
wastes are all dumped together.
The 2014-15 Parliamentary Standing
Committee on Urban Development calling the
three major landfills ‘monstrous trash mountains’
sought responses from the Delhi Development
Authority (DDA) on why it had failed to surmount
the problems of solid waste management in the
city. The DDA cited lack of an alternative site at
which a landfill may be operated, owing to the
high price of land in the city. Reclamation of
landfill sites and construction of an integrated
solid waste processing complex at the site available
for a new landfill were proposed by DDA. But
neither proposal came to any fruition. The
Standing Committee also took note of the fact that
construction waste such as bricks, concrete, wood
and rubble were not being segregated before being
dumped in the landfill sites.
The United Kingdom reuses over 70 per cent of
its construction waste and Singapore over 90 per
cent. However, because the total waste generated
in the city is not segregated, of the 3,000 tonnes of
construction waste created daily in Delhi, a large
proportion is not reused for building purposes
(Ministry of Urban Development, 2015).
pollution and health hazards
The present situation, as has been repeatedly
pointed by the Supreme Court, is extremely
disheartening. Disposal of unsegregated waste
into the landfill, combined with the landfills
exceeding defined limits in terms of capacity
(Livelaw, 2018) has become a health hazard
(Livelaw, 2016) for the residents of the city.
Methane emissions from landfills are especially
problematic. Estimations point out that about
50 per cent of gas emitted from the landfills is
methane while carbon dioxide accounts for
another 45 per cent—the remainder being
nitrogen, hydrogen and other gases (Nath, 2016).
Further, the three main landfills in Delhi at
Ghazipur, Bhalaswa and Okhla, commissioned in
1984, 1994 and 1996 respectively are not designed
according to the SWM Rules. The Delhi Pollution
Control Committee refused to grant authorisation
to these three landfills that are by definition
therefore, being used illegally. As the Central
Pollution Control Board has noted, in the absence
of availability for landfill sites all three Municipal
Corporations of Delhi were using the saturated
sites for disposal of waste.
To ease the capacity of landfills waste-to-energy
incinerators are proposed. However it has been
pointed out that burning waste in incinerators
only leads to further pollution by adding highly
toxic ash residues, dioxins and furans to the
atmosphere, which are carcinogenic and tend
to persist in the environment (Sharma, 2017). In
2013, residents of Sukhdev Vihar, situated close
to the Okhla waste-to-energy plant, moved the
National Green Tribunal (NGT) to stop the toxic
emissions emanating from the plant owned by the
State government. The main point of contention
raised by the residents was the emission of
dioxins and furans, the continued exposure to
and inhalation of which can cause respiratory
and reproductive health issues (NGT, 2017).
In March 2013, the Central Pollution Control
Board had found emissions to be in excess—120
times the safe levels (Sharma, 2017). The NGT
allowed the plant to function, directing it to pay an
environmental compensation of INR 25 lakh to
the DPCC for its deficient operation. The penalty
so paid to the DPCC was to be used for prevention
and control of pollution in the area. (NGT, 2017).
Incinerators and waste to energy plants need to be
at a minimum distance of 300 to 500 m (CPCB,
2017) from residential areas. This is a general
practice in China, Malaysia, Canada and the
United Kingdom, as has been noted by the CPCB.
The Okhla plant stands at a distance of a mere 35 m
from the Sukhdev Vihar colony and should in no
context continue functioning (Sambyal, 2017).
road to nowhere
The Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, in the
Supreme Court hearing in July 2018 pointed
out that the problem of landfills in Delhi was
a legacy of six decades and could not be done
away with easily. Following the Supreme
Court’s strict directions to address the problem,
the Lieutenant Governor formulated an action
plan aimed at gradually closing the city’s
overflowing landfill sites and also making them
scientifically safer. The action plan also sought
to prohibit dumping of untreated garbage in the
landfill after 2020 (Livelaw, 2018).
Speaking with G’nY, Shyamala Mani, former
professor at the National Institute of Urban
Affairs and Team Leader at Swachch Bharat
Mission-Urban notes, “There are indeed
scientific methods to cap a landfill, but first, we
need to stop dumping waste in it. The next step is
removing any active gas, like methane or leachate
coming from it, which needs to be done through
a proper study and not just a rough estimation.
Methane is spontaneously formed and we need
to estimate what are locations it is being emitted
from, so it can be trapped and removed. Once
this has been done, soil or geotextile can be put
over the landfill and grass or other plants can
be grown on it to cap the landfill.” Mani also
points towards the need of segregation to prevent
any further accumulation: “Segregation has to
be done at source. Otherwise, when dry waste
mixes with wet waste, recycling and composting
becomes extremely difficult and expensive.”
Recently, in a separate order, the Supreme Court
also approved the setup of waste to energy plant
in Delhi Ridge or the Yamuna floodplains to
address the problems of solid waste management
in Delhi—a plan that also involves cutting of trees
in 47.3 acres of the ridge. Ironically, the order came
a fortnight after the NGT stopped the felling of
trees in Delhi for the redevelopment of residential
facilities in South Delhi neighbourhoods. As
experts have pointed out, (Nandi, 2018; Jha,
2016; Agarwal, 2018) setting up a landfill site
or installing an energy plant poses high risk
of leachate contamination in the Yamuna
floodplains, thus affecting Delhi’s groundwater
quality and is likely to affect eco-sensitive zones
in the ridge. The order also contradicts the SWM
Rules of 2016, which explicitly prohibit sanitary
landfills in eco-sensitive zones.
geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 23
 An earlier proposal, dating to 2000 had suggested
using the Asola Bhatti mines for an alternative
site, an area that is spread over 447 acres and is
removed from Delhi’s thickly inhabited areas.
The idea had been recommended by the United
Nations and a feasibility study had been carried
out by a Danish agency (Bhatnagar, 2017). There
has been opposition to using the Asola mines for
a landfill site as well. Also located on the Delhi
ridge, the area near the mines act as a groundwater
recharge system for Delhi. Significantly, it is also an
ecologically sensitive area and falls within the Asola
wildlife sanctuary (Krishna, 2015).
endnote
Alternatives to the saturated landfills in Delhi
do not present a clear or viable solution for the
future. Any plan of action done for capping
landfill, or finding an alternate site for landfill
needs to first consider the need to encourage
segregation of waste, which can be done
by presenting some incentive to individual
generators. Further, the capping of landfills
needs to be planned extensively and done
through scientific methods. Unless further
disposal of garbage is prohibited and segregation
is implemented rigorously, there is no telling how
long it is before the garbage from these exhausted
landfills begins flowing into the city.
references
Agarwal R., 2018. Who will take the onus of clearing
Delhi’s landfills, Down to Earth, July 12.
Agarwal R., 2018. Why a landfill and waste-to-
energy plant in Delhi Ridge is a bad idea, Down
to Earth, July 19.
Annepu R., 2012. Sustainable Solid Waste
Management in India, Waste-to-Energy
Research and Technology Council, Columbia
University, Accessed from: https://bit.
ly/2LNuD8D
Bedi A., 2018. The Greater Kailash of Garbage,
Outlook India, April 23.
Bhatnagar V.G., 2017. Can the Asola Bhati Mines
Solve Delhi’s Mounting Waste Problem? The
Wire, September 5.
Central Pollution Control Board, 2016.
Implementation of Solid Wastes Management
Rules, Annual Review Report 2015-16, Available
at: https://bit.ly/2K5cHsg
________________, 2017. Guidelines on the
24 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
Provision of Buffer Zone Around Waste
Processing and Disposal Facilities, Available at:
https://bit.ly/2KpX0be
Delhi Pollution Control Committee, 2015. Annual
Review Report of DPCC wrt MSW for the year
2015-16, Available at: https://bit.ly/2NIYOOL
Haque I., Das D.N. and Patel P.P., 2018. Spatial
Segregation in Indian Cities: Does the City Size
Matter, Sage Journals, 9(1): 52-68.
Jha V., 2016. Delhi’s plan to create a landfill along
the banks of the Yamuna is a downright
dangerous idea, Scroll, December 18.
Krishna G., 2015. Why Bhatti Mines is not suitable
as a landfill site, Toxic Watch, November 16.
Livelaw News Network, 2016. Delhi Landfill Sites A
Health Hazard: SC, Livelaw, October 17.
________________, 2018. Garbage Mounds A
Legacy Of 6 Decades. Clean Up Herculean Task.
Steps Being Taken, Delhi LG Tells SC, Livelaw,
July 20.
Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate
Change, 2016. Solid Waste Management Rules,
2016, Available at: https://bit.ly/2CgY01B
Ministry of Urban Development, 2015. Standing
Committee on Urban Development (2014-15),
Available at: https://bit.ly/2A4ls26
Nandi J., 2018. Landfill site at Ridge or Yamuna
floodplain can poison groundwater, The Times of
India, July 21.
Nath D., 2016. Toxic smoke from Bhalswa landfill
chokes city, The Hindu, April 15.
National Green Tribunal, 2017. Sukddev Vihar
Residents Welfare Association and Ors. V. State of
NCT of Delhi and Ors., Available at: https://bit.
ly/2LMOVyZ
New Delhi Municipal Council, 2017. Gazette
Notification of Urban Development of Delhi on
Solid Waste Management Bye-Laws, Available at:
https://bit.ly/2OfXPXC
Sambyal S., 2017. NGT judgement on Okhla waste
plant: no lessons learned, Down to Earth,
February 3.
Sharma, P., 2017. Delhi’s Air: Why Does No One
Care About Unmanaged Waste?, Economic and
Political Weekly, 52(50).
Sunny S., 2017. Delhi’s Ghazipur landfill collapse:
2 dead as mountain of trash sweeps many into
nearby canal, Hindustan Times, September 2.
Wadehra and Mishra, 2017. Delhi’s Waste Woes: Is
There a Way Out? Economic and Political
Weekly, 52(52).
 In con v er s at Ion
Plastic waste utilisation: Mindsets
need to change
The ‘Plastic Man of India’, Padma Shri Rajagopalan Vasudevan, former
Professor of Chemistry at Thiagrajar College of Engineering, is revered for
his innovation of using waste plastic in road construction. Speaking with
G’nY he outlines the pivotal role humans play in preserving nature.
G’nY. Making roads out of plastic
waste is an outstanding innovation.
How did you get the idea?
Way back in 2001, a doctor was talking
about the detrimental impact of plastic
on TV. I was struck by the bizarreness
of how animals were found to have
died because of plastic. That same day
I went to my lab and introspected. I
thought that in Tamil Nadu alone there
are more than 7,000 industries, yet so
many people remained unemployed.
I began thinking of ways to utilise
plastic waste to make something
substantial, something that would
provide employment too. Both plastic
and bitumen (an ingredient used in the
construction of roads) are by-products
of petroleum. So, they belong to
same family of elements with similar
properties. Hence, the combination of
bitumen and plastic seemed plausible.
G’nY. What is the cost-effectiveness
of the material used for building
roads out of plastic waste?
One km of any road needs 10 tonnes
of bitumen whereas roads made from
a plastic-bitumen combination needs
9 tonnes of bitumen per km. One
tonne of bitumen costs INR 50,000.
If we calculate the whole cost of
constructing a road then it is 10 per
cent less than the cost of a normal road
made from bitumen. Hence we can
save a large amount. For a road made
from plastic waste, one tonne of plastic
litter can be used. Waste plastic is a
pollutant and by using it not only do
we reduce the environmental burden
but also reduce the quantity of bitumen
used, freeing up resources and saving
in the overall cost.
G’nY. Is it possible to use plastic
waste in other construction material
and infrastructural projects like
bridges, flyover, buildings etc.?
Plastone can be used for platforms
near roads, for table tops and various
other things. Instead of granite, I
recommend the use of plastone for
various construction purposes.
G’nY. On what scale has the method
pioneered by you been used in India? along with bituminous concrete for
The innovation of plastic roads has road construction.
already been used and implemented
by all states in the country. One lakh G’nY. What are your thoughts about
km of roads made from plastic waste the future?
have already been laid. The technology As human beings, we should cooperate
is also being used under the Pradhan with each other and strive to preserve
Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) nature and its beauty. We are the
along with the Ministry of Environment, ambassadors of this world. We must
Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). take care of this world and not land up
Further, the government has made it polluting it and driving it to its end.
mandatory for all the road developers It is up to us to join hands and take
in the country to use plastic waste responsibility to protect our planet.
GeoGraphy and you  auGust 1 - 15 2018 25
 De v el opmen t oDD S

By Staff Reporter

EFFICACY
OF THE
PLASTIC BAN
FINDINGS FROM STATES
A total of 19 states in India have introduced a ban on plastic bags.
Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh too have recently joined the fight
against plastic waste. However, plastic usage continues unhindered in
the absence of rigorous implementation considerably undermining the
effectiveness of the ban.

26 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

 Unchecked plastic waste can
severely affect the ecosystem
and is a threat to both humans
and animals.
Photo: Prasad

geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 27

S
ince its inception in 1957, when
polystyrene was first produced,
the plastic industry has grown and
diversified. Currently, it employs about
4 million people in India and comprises
more than 30,000 processing units, of which
85 to 90 per cent are small and medium sized
enterprises (IBEF, 2017). Today, plastics have a
wide range of applications, including packaging,
wrapping materials, shopping and garbage
bags, fluid containers, clothing, toys, household
and industrial products and building materials
(CPCB, 2013). While the usage of plastic was
initially meant for convenience, both consumers
and producers now see it as a necessity. However,
this large scale usage of plastic inarguably
leaves behind high amounts of waste that pose
multiple liabilities. In 2017, the Central Pollution
Control Board (CPCB) estimated that India
generates 25,940 tonnes of plastic waste on a daily
basis, amounting to approximately 9.4 million
tonnes per annum (CPCB, 2017). While state
governments have brought about measures to
contain increasing pollution from plastic through
statutory bans on its usage, they have been mostly
been confined to plastic waste and in the absence
of rigorous implementation the laws continue to
exist merely on paper.
Measures to Curb plastic pollution
Keeping in mind the necessity of regulating and
controlling the waste generated through the
usage of plastic, the central government enacted
the Plastic Waste Management (PWM) Rules,
2016. These were a modification of the previous
PWM Rules of 2011 and sought to introduce new
rules including a countrywide ban on the usage
of plastics below the thickness of 50 microns,
extended producers responsibility (EPR) to
institute a collect back system for producers and
generators of plastic products and phasing out of
non-recyclable multi-layered plastic which has no
alternate use within two years of implementation
of the rules.
More than two years have passed since
the rules were brought into force, but the
present situation shows barely any change
on the ground with regard to the control of
pollution brought about by plastic wastes.
The central government has, however, been
taking continual measures to curb plastic
pollution. In April 2018, the central government
28 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
introduced new amendments to the 2016 rules.
So far, implementation of the 2016 rules has
been difficult and the new amendment does
not include any mechanism to strengthen it
(Agarwal, 2018). Bans introduced in different
states have not been able to control plastic waste
generation and the consequent pollution in
their respective territories. As seen in Table 1,
despite a partial or complete ban introduced
in some states, large-scale generation of plastic
waste has continued.
The Ban in delhi
Till date, about 18 states and union territories have
imposed a complete ban on the use of plastic bags.
However, thorough and rigorous implementation
of the ban has proved unsuccessful. For instance,
in 2008 the Delhi High Court directed the Delhi
government to raise the minimum thickness
of plastic carry bags from 20 to 40 microns
(before the PWM Rules imposed a countrywide
minimum standard of 50 microns). Following
the directions, the state government passed a
legislation imposing a complete ban on use of
plastic carry bags in market areas. However, the
absence of a cost effective alternative combined
with a lax enforcement found traders openly
flouting the ban (Businessline, 2013). In October
2012, the Delhi Government, by powers vested in
it under Section 5 of The Environment Act, 1986,
brought about a blanket ban on the manufacture,
import, sale, storage, usage and transport of all
kinds of plastic bags. The notification that brought
the ban about also included provisions to impose
penalties on the violators (DelE, 2012).
In 2014, a sample survey on 834 vendors and
consumers conducted by the non-profit Toxics
Link found that usage of plastic carry bags
continued despite a ban. Almost 62 per cent of the
460 vendors and 78 per cent of 374 consumers were
using plastic carry bags to sell and carry different
products. The usage was found to be high among
vegetable and fruit vendors. As far as the issue of
reuse and recycling was concerned, 89 per cent of
the consumers who were a part of the survey stated
that they throw the bags into dustbins after use.
Both vendors and customers cited convenience
and the lack of a cheaper alternative to plastic as
the key reasons behind persisting with plastic
usage despite the ban (Toxics Link, 2014).
Further, while the notification also prohibited
the production of plastic bags within city

boundaries, manufacturing units continued to
function in Delhi in the areas of Mangolpuri,
Narela and Bawana. It was mostly larger outlets
and corporations, easy to identify and penalise,
that had made the shift to alternatives such as
paper and jute bags. Nevertheless, there was no
evidence to suggest that the paper bags were being
reused to the extent that is required to qualify
as more eco-friendly than single-use plastics
(Maloney, 2018).
As far as the vigilance of the Delhi government
is concerned, no clear effort was made to aid
the introduction of the ban. While some steps
were indeed taken for enforcement such as
spot-checking and fines, implementation of even
these measures fizzled out over time. Lack of strict
enforcement is one of the key factors behind the
poor implementation in Delhi.
The success story in sikkim
In 1998, Sikkim became the first state in India
to introduce a complete ban on the use of plastic
bags. Prior to the ban, the problems caused by
increasing usage of plastics were wide ranging—
from clogged drains to even landslides (Dhillon,
2018). Following the ban, plastic waste generation
in the state has decreased and currently stands at
1,600 tons per annum, the lowest in the country
(CPCB, 2015). Following a blanket ban on the
use of plastic bags, the Sikkim government took
another step to curb pollution from plastic and
banned the use of packaged drinking water
in government offices and events. The use of
Styrofoam and thermocol plates was also banned
in the State (UNEP, 2018).
Under the notification issued by the government
of Sikkim in 1998, delivery of goods or materials
purchased or otherwise to any person, firm, shop,
company or any other agency or organisation
in plastic wrappers or plastic bags is prohibited.
Following the issuance of the notification, the
government took steps to carry out continuous
checks on the usage of plastic bags in big cities.
Fines were imposed on offenders. The penalising
provision created a sense of fear among would be
offenders and the ban therefore proved effective
(Bari, 2018).
It was found that in Gangtok and Soreng, the
usage of plastic bags had decreased following
the ban—in Gangtok, 62 per cent of users had
made the switch. Alternatives such as newspaper
wrap and jute bags were being used in Gangtok
The lack of a cheaper
alternative and the associated
inconvenience are the key
reasons behind persisting with
plastic despite bans.
by 29 per cent and 1 per cent users, respectively.
Conventional plastic bag packaging was being
used only to the extent of 8 per cent in Gangtok
(Maloney, 2018).
However, in Soreng 26 per cent of the users
were still using plastic bags. Nearly 18 per cent
of the users had started using paper bags, while
newspaper wraps and jute bags were being
used by 32 per cent and 26 per cent of users
respectively (ibid).
But in both the towns, non woven polypropylene
(PP) bags were widely used—28 per cent in
Gangtok and 24 per cent in Soreng. PP bags,
while advertised as eco-friendly, are quite the
opposite as they are woven out of plastic. Effective
implementation requires inclusion of PP bags
among the items that have been banned.
The plastic ban in Sikkim has thus been fairly
effective save for a few areas that required better
implementation. This is especially important in
the case of rural areas, where a large number of
people are still using plastic carry bags. All in all,
penalties and state-level policies, combined with
an awareness programme have helped Sikkim
curb use of plastic bags to a large extent.
Ban in Maharashtra and uttar pradesh
Maharashtra is India’s biggest generator of plastic
waste, producing more than 4.6 lakh tonnes of
waste every year. A large proportion of this waste
is comprised of polythene bags below 50 microns
in thickness, which as mentioned earlier had been
banned by the PWM rules of 2016 (CPCB, 2016).
In March 2018, Maharashtra enforced a
complete ban on polythene bags, specified types
of plastic sheets, non-woven polypropylene bags
and thermocols. The notification specifies a
complete stop on ‘manufacture, usage, transport,
distribution, wholesale and retail sale and
storage, import of the plastic bags with handle
and without handle, and the disposable products
manufactured from plastic and thermocol.’
geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 29
Fig. 1: States in India with a complete or partial ban on production, sale and usage of carry bags, and plastic waste
generated in 2014-15 and 2015-16 (tonnes per annum) and annual plastic waste generated in 2015-16
Maharashtra #
Gujarat
Tamil Nadu*
Uttar Pradesh
Karnataka

Andhra Pradesh 2015-16

2014-15
Punjab
*Data for 2014-15 not available with CPCB.
Madhya Pradesh #Black denotes the anomaly recorded in
Maharashtra.
Odisha Source: Central Pollution Control Board.

Chandigarh
Jammu & Kashmir

Uttarakhand*

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

While several states have introduced partial or complete bans on plastic carry bags, plastic waste generation has not been
curtailed rather it has increased. A marginal decrease in plastic waste generation can be witnessed only in the state of
Maharashtra (decline depicted in black). However, it is pertinent to note that this data, published by the CPCB on the basis
of reports submitted to it by respective SPCBs can often be arbitrary and inconclusive.

The plastic items exempt from the ban are milk
pouches, wrappers for processed food, dustbin
liners and polyethylene terephthalate ester PET
bottles. The milk pouches and PET bottles will
be sold to customers at an additional cost of 50
paise and one rupee respectively, which is to be
refunded when the customers return the plastic
product for recycling (MPCB, 2018).
The notification was challenged in the Bombay
High Court in April, but the court refused to
stay the ban and held that it was reasonable
and valid (Thomas, 2018). On June 23, 2018,
the law came into effect, thereby providing
three months to consumers, vendors and the
stakeholders in the plastic industry to find an
alternative to plastic products.
Producers have been brought into the ambit of
the notification by the initiation of a mechanism
wherein they will be responsible for collecting or
‘buying back’ the plastic products manufactured
by them under EPR (MPCB, 2018).
In April 2018, it was reported that retailers in
both organised and unorganised sectors had
made the switch to cloth and paper bags (Agarwal
and Janardan, 2018). Further, in July 2018, the
buy-back scheme came into effect in the State.
Till date, no other Indian state has implemented
a buy-back scheme. The rule relating to buy-back
puts the onus for collection of plastic waste on
manufacturers, for which they are required to set
up collection and recycling centers. A buy back
price needs to be clearly printed at the back of the
PET bottles. The rule relating to EPR has strictly
laid down that recycling and collection plants
need to be set up within three months from the
publication of the notification (ibid). However,
no information has been published or made
available so far on whether the producers have
taken steps as is required of them and whether the
implementation of the rules have been desirable.
For ensuring strict implementation of the ban
at airports, ports and railway and metro stations,
the state government has stated that an authorised
officer will be provided the power to take action
against violators (Express News Service, 2018). But
it is important for Maharashtra to take leaf out of
the books of both Sikkim and Delhi, as discussed
earlier, in order to gain insight into why and
how the bans brought about by their respective
governments have succeeded or failed (Agarwal
and Janardan, 2018).
On July 15 2018, Uttar Pradesh also introduced
a complete ban on the sale and use of plastic bags.
Steps for banning plastic had been taken earlier,
but since no rules had been prepared for the same,
no concrete measures could be taken. The ban
covers products made from plastic, including
polythene, plastic bags and glasses, in the first

30 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

phase. During the second phase, starting August
15, the ban will be enforced on all plastics and
thermocols, including cups and plates (Mirror
Now, 2018).
Measures for effectiveness
Considering the cases of Delhi and Sikkim it is
clear that the bans on plastic bags only becomes
effective with an effective monitoring policy and
measures to spread awareness about both the
ban and the harmful effects of plastic. Successful
restrictions on prohibitions on usage in limited
geographical areas are more likely to succeed. In
its present form, the Plastic Waste Management
Rules, 2016 imposes a nationwide ban only on the
usage of plastic bags below 50 microns of thickness
(MoEF, 2016). The remaining rules lay down the
basic duties of urban and rural governing bodies
to ensure safe disposal of plastic waste and to
encourage reduced use of plastics (Johari, 2018).
While many state governments have started
recognising the need to prohibit the use of plastic
products, it is at the same time important to
bring about a law that imposes a uniform ban on
a national scale. The issue of plastic pollution is
not one that should not be seen as restricted to
respective states.
Most importantly, infrastructural
improvements, especially for the segregation
and collection of waste and the disposal of
existing plastic waste in a cost efficient manner is
imperative at present. The government’s efforts
should be to empower municipalities to improve
recycling and also enhance energy-conversion
from non-recyclable plastic waste. The demand
and use of plastic packaging is likely to grow in
line with growing demand for processed food
and beverages. Therefore management of plastic
waste needs to be a priority area of work within the
mandate of a clean-India mission.
endnote
The PWM Rules, 2016 are but one step towards
controlling the nuisance of plastic pollution.
To further strengthen the regulation of plastic
products and to curb the pollution caused by
plastic waste, the government now needs to
develop a mechanism where stricter monitoring
can bring about better enforcement and
strengthen the existing rules, especially those
concerning extended producers’ responsibility
so that pressure can be brought upon the
interest groups that are always seeking to dilute
the provisions regulating or banning usage of
plastic. Rigorous implementation, combined
with improvements in existing infrastructure
are the pillars upon which a plastic waste-free
future rests.
references
Agarwal R., 2018. Centre amends Plastic Waste Rules,
but misses out on strengthening implementation,
Down to Earth, April 2
Agarwal S., and Janardan A., 2018. How Maharashtra
is coping with the plastic ban, Livemint, April 7.
Bari P., 2018. Plastic ban has worked in Sikkim but
not in Delhi, finds Pune-based NGO, Hindustan
Times, March 25.
Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), 2017.
Consolidated Guidelines for Segregation, Collection
and Disposal of Plastic Waste, Available at: https://
bit.ly/2L7YNDo
________________, 2013. Overview of Plastic
Waste Management, Available at: https://bit.
ly/2Gm6XEV
Maloney K., 2018. An analysis of the effectiveness of
bans on plastic bags, EcoExist, Available at: https://
bit.ly/2M2V7Gz
Mirror Now Digital, 2018. Plastic ban in Uttar Pradesh
enters first phase, polythene below 50 microns
banned, Times Now, July 15.
Express News Service, 2018. Officers to act against
plastic ban violators at railway stations, metro,
ports, airports, The Indian Express, August 4.
Indian Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), 2017.
Indian Plastic Industry, Available at: https://bit.
ly/2IoVp9B
Johari A., 2018. Why have laws to completely ban
plastic bags failed in India? Scroll, March 21.
PTI, 2013. Traders openly flout ban on plastic bags in
Delhi, The Hindu Businessline, February 10.
Delhi Directorate of Education (DElE), 2012.
Notification, Available at: https://bit.ly/2rIjQ7N
Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB), 2018.
Notification, Available at: https://bit.ly/2IMPD14
Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), 2016.
Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016, Available
at: https://bit.ly/2GBYQ7O
Thomas S., 2018. Bombay high court refuses to stay
plastic ban in Maharashtra, Times of India,
April 13.
Toxic Links, 2014. Plastics and the Environment
Assessing the Impact of the Complete Ban on Plastic
Carry Bag, Available at: https://bit.ly/2rM0EFc
geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 31
 deb at ing r igH t S
By Bastian Steuwer
The REAL issue of
SABARIMALA
The right of women to enter the Sabarimala temple is at the center of national
debates. A middle ground needs to be found for the opposing claims made by
individuals and communities on the limits of private discrimination.
I
n the last few weeks, the Supreme Court
heard arguments about the controversy
surrounding the entry of women to the
Sabarimala temple (Bar and Bench, 2018).
The judgment will resolve, if not bring
to an end, the controversy about whether or not
women aged between 10 and 50 can have access
to Sabarimala. Women worshippers and gender
equality advocates have long protested and
challenged the exclusion of women to Sabarimala.
To them, the exclusion in Sabarimala is yet
another example of sexism and gender-based
discrimination.
In the Court, the petitioners seeking to allow
women’s entry focussed on this argument.
Religion, they claimed, cannot be a justification
for continuing the unjust treatment women have
received in India. On the other side, the Devasom
Board and various campaign groups have argued
passionately for religious freedom. For them, the
issue at Sabarimala goes to the very heart of the
relation between the state and the religion. The
32 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
practices at Sabarimala were based on deeply
held beliefs about how Lord Ayyappa, the celibate
deity to whom the temple is dedicated, should be
worshiped. State intrusion would threaten the
ability of religious practitioners to follow their
own deeply held beliefs.
A False Contrast
It is therefore no surprise that the controversy
around Sabarimala is portrayed as a clash
between two versions of India—the traditional-
conservative India and the modern-liberal India.
The former emphasises and values the religious
roots, traditions and customs, while the latter
emphasises and values the secular, progressive
and feminist India. One values religious freedom,
the other values gender equality.
The problem is that no side can win this contest
outright. Both religious freedom and gender
equality are values widely shared and enshrined
in the Indian Constitution. The petitioners would
need to explain why religious freedom should not
PhoTo: PraSad; PicTure for rePreSenTaTive PurPoSeS only

There is a genuine conflict

between two different claims
to religious freedom in the
Sabrimala case.
extend to Sabarimala, even as the respondents
would need to explain why gender equality does
not extend to Sabarimala. Unfortunately, there
has not been an efficacious engagement in this
regard in light of the arguments presented before
the Court. The petitioners asserted that what
count are constitutional values and not religious
values. However, the case concerns the question
of what religious institutions, as opposed to state
institutions, can and cannot legitimately do. The
respondents asserted that the practices as in the
case of Sabarimala are deeply held, essential parts
of their religion. However, the same can be said
about the women wanting to enter Sabarimala.
They, too, want to worship Lord Ayyappa but are
restrained from doing so.
This contrast is particularly interesting. It
indicates that there is a genuine conflict between
claims to religious freedom in this case. If
women are barred from entry, these women
cannot worship at Sabarimala. Their claims to
religious freedom are not fulfilled. If women
are allowed entry, worshippers who genuinely
believe that the temple is impure will no longer
be able to worship there. Their claims to religious
freedom would not be fulfilled. It is this conflict
which shows that the core submissions of both
sides are insufficient. Simply asserting the
right to worship for one side is not enough.
The conflict also shows why Sabarimala is
different from other cases of discrimination.
When women were excluded from education
or military service, it was possible to have men
and women studying or fighting side by side. In
Sabarimala this is not possible. For the believer
who thinks Sabarimala will become impure, the
act of worship will lose part of its meaning.
A Way out
Can this deadlock be broken, or will the Supreme
Court be forced to simply choose one of the two
sides? If this is indeed to be then it would have
serious consequences for the legitimacy of the
Supreme Court. If decisions of such monumental
importance boil down to a simple choice between
two political views, should this not be rather
left to Parliaments and elections? It would be
inappropriate for judges to simply declare which
version of India they belong to.
Fortunately, the outcome may not be so
bleak. There is a way of recasting the issue in
Sabarimala that does not require us to contrast
34 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
two irreconcilable versions of India. To see
this, we need to understand that religion has an
individual and a collective aspect. The individual
aspect contains prayers and the following of
religious texts. Most followers of a religion choose
to practice it collectively and for many this gives
an additional meaning to community. Until now,
we have only canvassed arguments based on the
individual aspect of religion. Perhaps the answer
can be found in the communal aspect of religion.
discrimination Without the state
The question then is whether or not associations,
like religious groups, have the power to
discriminate. It is clear that the state cannot
discriminate and has to treat every citizen
with equal concern and respect. However, this
obligation does not lie on non state actors in
the same measure. Non state actors are bound
only to a minor extent by the demands of the
Constitution. This is called the horizontal
effect. It is a common misconception that the
Indian Constitution does not grant for the
horizontal effect of fundamental rights. This is
contradicted by the very text of the constitution.
In Article 15(2), it provides that no citizen shall
be discriminated against in his or her access
to shops, restaurants, hotels, and places of
entertainment. In effect this is providing for
the horizontal effect of the right to equality.
Similarly, Article 17 by abolishing untouchability,
provides for horizontal effect. Practices of private
individuals associated with untouchability are
prohibited by the constitution. To say that the
Indian constitution does not have any form of
horizontal effect is therefore incorrect.
To what extent can intimate associations
discriminate? Some forms of discrimination
seem permissible to us. A hypothetical Kerala
Women’s Lawyers’ Association can exclude
men from membership and access to their club
house. An advocacy group for victims of sexual
assault can exclude men, and so on. Other forms
of discrimination seem impermissible to us.
An employer of a small business who does not
employ women. A business association which
excludes on the basis of caste, and so on.
The problem is where to draw the line between
these different kinds of discrimination. The
United States Supreme Court has considered this
question in a few cases. The results are mixed. In
Board of Directors, Rotary International vs Rotary

Club of Duarte, it struck down the exclusion of
women from the Rotary Club Charity. It held that
the size, purpose, selectivity, and exclusivity of the
organisation have to be taken into consideration
when determining this question. These factors
determine the intimacy and the purpose of the
association. Given that the Rotary Club is not
a particularly intimate association, forcing the
admission of members would not interfere much
with the purpose of the association. In Boy Scouts
of America vs Dale, the Supreme Court reached
the opposite conclusion. It upheld the exclusion
of homosexuals from the Boy Scouts of America,
a popular youth organisation. The opposition to
homosexuality was seen as an expressive message
and thus integral to the self-understanding of the
Boy Scouts.
religions and Associations
One might wonder about the sudden shift
from religion to associations. Is this not a
bad comparison? Is religion not special? The
answer is no. In a secular state like India,
religion cannot have a special status. Secularism
requires neutrality of the state between different
religious groups including non-believers. Any
special treatment of religion violates this last
requirement. A state cannot honestly claim to be
neutral in religious matters if it favours religion
over non-religion.
Saying that religion is not special does not
amount to saying that religious freedom has
no space. What it does amount to is saying that
religious beliefs are not more important or
worthier of protection than equivalent beliefs of
non-religious people. The Indian Constitution
recognises this. Article 25, which provides
for religious freedom, says that ‘freedom of
conscience and free profession, practice and
propagation of religion’ are protected. The rights
of religious practice are protected alongside
because they constitute acts of conscience. The
right of religions as associations to manage
their own affairs is similarly protected by
the constitution. Article 26 gives religious
denominations, as a collective, the right to
manage its own affairs.
But the constitution also sets limits to the
ability of religions to manage their own affairs.
Article 25(2b) carves out exceptions for the right
to religious practice. The provision is a so-called
‘enabling clause’, which allows the state to take
Religious beliefs are
not more important or
worthier of protection
than equivalent beliefs of
non-religious people.
certain kinds of action. It allows action that
provides for ‘social welfare and reform or the
throwing open of Hindu religious institutions
of a public character to all classes and sections
of Hindus’. The Kerala government has made
a legislation that is claimed to fall under this
enabling clause. The Kerala Hindu Places of
Worship (Authorisation of Entry) Act 1965,
provides for entry of all Hindus to public temples.
The question is then whether this Act indeed falls
under the enabling clause of Article 25(2b).
The real Issue in sabarimala
We have now arrived at the real issue in
Sabarimala. How should we read the enabling
clause in Article 25(2b)? Historically, the clause
was intended to abolish discrimination against
the lower castes. This is because Hinduism should
not have been under the exclusive control of
Brahmins. If this reading is adopted, we should
construe 25(2b) narrowly. Since historically it was
never intended to apply to women, the entry ban
for women stands.
History, however, cannot settle this question.
This is because interpreting laws by their original
intent proves difficult. The many framers of
the Constitution had different intentions. They
disagreed about how the Constitution should be
worded and how it should be applied. A single
member of the Constituent Assembly may have
conflicting intentions. The member might have
had specific intentions about specific cases, if he
or she cared to think about such cases. But the
member also had general intentions. However,
the framers wanted to lay down general political
principles. They believed in the ideals of equality
and religious freedom. If we now come to believe
that equality and religious freedom tells us to
allow temple entry for women, have they not also
intended this in a way?
History cannot be the last word. The Indian
geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 35
constitution is a living instrument which takes
into consideration political history and moral
principle. But even Ronald Dworkin, the defender
of the moral reading of the constitution has
observed (Dworkin, 1996) that “constitutional
interpretation must begin in what the framers
said.” We must determine whether there are
good reasons to depart from the historical
understanding.
This means we must decide the difficult
question to what extent associations are allowed
to discriminate. If we take the extreme view
that they always can, we will uphold the ban.
But we could then not explain why the Indian
constitution contains some forms of horizontal
effect. Shops, restaurants, and cinemas cannot
discriminate. If we take the opposite extreme view
that they never can, we will strike down the ban.
But we could then not explain why a Women’s
Lawyers’ Association can exclude men. The truth
will lie between these two extremes.

endnote
Whatever the Supreme Court will decide, two
points are worth stressing. First, the dispute in
Sabarimala is not a clash between two forms
of India. Liberal and conservative Indians can Top 10 Endangered Animals in
and should engage in a debate about the limits
India | Endangered Species
of private discrimination. Wherever the line
is drawn, it will not be that one side has simply
been defeated. Second, the case in Sabarimala
has implications beyond religion. The Court
should find principles appropriate for the subject
of private discrimination. What these principles
should be is a difficult question. This, in fact is the Can you pass this Geography

real issue in Sabarimala. quiz?

references
Bar & Bench, 2018. Entry of Women into Sabarimala:
Live Updates from the Supreme Court, Bar &
Bench, July 31.
Dworkin R., 1996. The Moral Reading of the
Top 10 Eco-Tourism Destinations
Constitution, New York Review of Books, 43(5).
Supreme Court of the United States, 2000. Boy Scouts in India | Eco Tourism
of America v. Dale, 530 U.S. 640 (2000).
__________________, 1987. Board of Directors of
Rotary International v. Rotary Club of Duarte, 481
U.S. 537 (1987).

The author is a research scholar and teaching assistant at

the London School of Economics, UK.
bastian.steuwer@onlinehome.de

36 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114


Does India put its
PhDs to any use
?
A
n All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) released
in July 2018 covering 882 universities, 38,061 colleges
and 9,090 stand-alone institutions presented a promising
outlook for higher education in the country. Student
enrolment for higher education showed a significant
upward trend from 32.3 per cent in 2013-14 to 36.6 per cent in 2017-18,
36 million in numbers. Understandably, undergraduates constituted
the largest body of students. The number of universities too marked
an increase, from 723 to 903 showcasing a rise of almost 24.9 per cent
during the same period. Rajasthan has the largest number of universities,
followed by Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and
Madhya Pradesh show a sizeable increase in college going youngsters
over the past three years. Other populous states have experienced a
marginal increase in enrolment. What is interesting however, is the steep
rise in enrolment in state private universities and a consequent drop in
state public universities in 2017-18.
Of the many salient results the Report highlights, the PhD level degree
awarded warrants a closer look. A PhD, considered to be first original
contribution after several years of learning, sets about to discover new
vistas of understanding. In that context, PhDs hold a valuable pool of
resources for a nation like India.
A total of 34,400 students were awarded a PhD degree in 2017. PhDs
in the traditional areas of study such as agriculture and natural science
see a robust number of awardees at 4,426 and 8,880 respectively. On the
other hand, PhDs in medical sciences, which incidentally has the largest
number of disciplines (48) show a record of just 1422 PhDs. In 40 core
disciplines, however, excluding PhDs in alternative medicine, hospital
management, and allied areas, there are just over 1,000 PhD awardees.
A cursory observation also brings to light that disciplines that need more
progressive and out-of-the-box thinking within medical science, such
as psychiatry or gynaecology, hold 1 and 7 PhDs respectively. One may
wonder that if Ayurveda could cough up 58 PhDs in a year, surely mental
health issues should garner a little more interest, let alone issues on
women health.
Social sciences present yet another area of discussion. Of a total
of 3,894 PhDs, population studies achieved merely 24 PhDs. Can it
possibly be because of the obsessive denial that the nation is in about
its population problems? Women’s studies, despite being a discipline
in its own rights in the tabulation and signifying a special status, could
In br Ief
gather merely 44 PhDs. Interestingly, India is globally understood as
the land of IT wizards with 15.9 million people employed (Statista, 2018)
in the sector, yet the number of PhDs awarded is just 382. Placed in
perspective, without an intention of undermining any discipline, we see
that Indian languages such as Sanskrit, Tamil and Kannada can manage
308, 227 and 190 PhDs respectively, with ease.
In a cursory comparison with the United States of America, India
does not seem to perform too poorly. For example, the Survey of
Earned Doctorates (SED) reported that 55,006 research doctorate
degrees were awarded by US institutions in 2015. In comparison,
India produced 34,400 PhDs. However that does seem a lot less if
we place the figures against the population of each country. By that
logic, India should be producing PhDs nearly seven times over to
reach that goal.
But, is it all about numbers? Absolutely not, it is about quality.
Corporates and governmental bodies in the U.S. value the research
undertaken by the scholars and are happy to accommodate them
in their research programmes. Although the market has shrunk in
recent times, the per cent of doctorate recipients with job or postdoc
commitments, in 2014, in the USA stood at 61.4 per cent (Jaschik, 2016).
In India, the AISHE report carries no such data, and neither was any
job-related data available for PhD awardees in the public domain. PhDs
in fact do not even find credence as a qualification for any job, public or
private that the country has to offer. With the corporate content to buy
scientific research off bodies such as CSIR, no robust environment
for enquiry has been built in the nation. Also, social sciences that form
the basis of many policies world over finds, most of its PhD holders in
academics. With the bureaucratic lobby in denial about the need for
doctorates, openings are non-existent and policies are often lopsided.
Higher education therefore seems to be rudderless, cruising at its own
pace, primarily in disciplines that had an early start.
References
Jaschik S., 2016. The Shrinking PhD Job Market, Inside Higher Ed,
April 4.
Statista, 2016. Direct employment from information technology and
business process management (IT-BPM) industry in India in 2015
and 2016, Statista: The Statistics Portal, Available at: https://bit.
ly/2B6zgtv
GeoGraphy and you  auGust 1 - 15 2018 37
 In con v er s at Ion

Muslim fertility rate has shown the sharpest

decline in recent years
In conversation with the affable Dr Amitabh Kundu, renowned economist and currently a
distinguished fellow at Research and Information System for Developing Countries, New Delhi,
G’nY brings forth significant issues prevailing among different socio-cultural groups in the country.

Modern ideas are propelling

a change especially in terms
of education.

38 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

G’nY. The total fertility rate (TFR) as
per the first 1992-93 National Family
Health Survey (NFHS-I) was 3.4. It
has gradually declined since. What
do you think has happened?
TFR is defined as the total number
of children born or likely to be born
to a woman in her lifetime, given the
prevailing age specific fertility rates.
As per the World Population Prospects
2017, published by the UN, India’s
fertility rate has declined from 5.9 in
1960 to 2.3 to 2015-16. It is projected
to drop to 2.1 in 2025-30 and to further
slide to 1.9 during 2045-50. The
National Family Health Survey (NFHS)
4 released in January 2018, reports
however that India’s TFR has dropped
from 2.7 in 2005-06 to 2.2 in 2015-16.
TFR at 2.1 is the replacement fertility
level where population stabilises.
India’s population is projected to peak
at 1.7 billion in 2060, before declining
to 1.5 billion by 2100. The faster
decline in TFR, as reported by NFHS
4, suggests that this can happen even
earlier than predicted.
TFR decline may be partly
ascribed to increased acceptance of
contraceptives. But this is only a part
of the explanation. The data from NFHS
1, 2, 3 and 4, show that acceptance
of ‘any’ contraceptive method by
married women has not increased
significantly. The percentage of women
using ‘modern’ contraceptive method
also has not increased much. This is
the case even during 2005-06 and
2015-16, the period recording a high
decline in TFR. The main factor which
led to a significant decline in TFR is the
increase in age of marriage. NFHS 4
records that among the married women
in 20-24 age group, the persons who
were either pregnant or had a baby at
or before the age of 18 was as high
as 48 per cent in 2005-06 which
came down to 21 per cent in 2015-16.
So, the nation is experiencing this
demographic advantage primarily due
to the increase in the mother’s age
when her first child is born.
G’nY. Will the declining fertility
rate affect population growth and
demographic dividend?
Of course. TFR decline will benefit
the country because with it the
dependency rate will fall. Reduction in
the share of children and an increase
in adult population can help achieve
a high growth rate as these will lead
to an increase in the percentage
of working population. The Indian
economy is expected to grow at a faster
rate in the coming decades—largely
due to its demographic dividend. India
will enjoy this demographic dividend
for many years ahead of China since
the latter has controlled its population
several decades ago. India is a recent
entrant into this phase.
Women’s work
participation and their
mobility for economic
reasons show a happy
rising trend.
The Asian Development Outlook
(ADO), 2018 report has projected that
the Indian economy will grow at 7-8
per cent in the next three decades and
hailed that in the 21st century Asia and
India are likely to be the leaders in the
economic world. Brookings Institution,
an American research group,has also
projected an optimistic scenario, but
noted that these predicted scenarios
are critically dependent on the
increase in the work participation
rate and skill development. In order
geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018
to achieve the predicted growth
rate, an increase in the percentage
of women participating in the
workforce is a must. Furthermore,
skill development and on job training
on a massive scale needs to be
stepped up to meet the demand of
the emerging labour market.
G’nY. TFR is highest for Muslim
women (2.6), even higher than the
national average. How can you
explain that?
The percentage of the number of poor
among the Muslims is almost equal
to that in Scheduled Castes (SC) and
Scheduled Tribes (ST) population.
This poverty syndrome affects their
TFR. Interestingly, Muslim men have
a high rate of work participation as
they get into labour market at an
early age. The NFHS 4 data suggests
that the Muslim community is more
centered around household, which
could explain a larger ‘desired number
of children’, than other communities.
The situation, however, is changing
dramatically across all communities.
The fall in total fertility rate among
Muslims is very high. In 2005-06, the
TFR for Muslims was 3.4 and in NFHS
4, it came down to 2.6—a decline
of 0.8 percentage points. No other
community has seen this massive fall.
For Hindus, TFR was 2.6 in 2005-06.
In 2015-16, it came down to 2.1—a
fall of 0.5 points. Similarly, the fall for
the Christians and Sikhs were just 0.3
percentage points during the period
from 2005-06 to 2015-16.
There is, thus, definite evidence of
convergence in fertility rates across
different socio-religious groups.
The gap between Hindu and Muslim
fertility rates is narrowing down.
Improvement in education status and
benefits of economic development
and modernity reaching the
39
marginalised communities has made
difference. Clearly, the acceptance of
non terminal and spacing methods of
family planning has gone up among
Muslim women, although terminal
methods, such as sterilisation, are
not very popular. A large section of
Muslims go in for traditional and
conservative contraceptive methods.
Primary education has had
a significant impact in the TFR
among women. With increase in the
percentage of women accessing
primary education in a community,
there seems to be a corroborating
sharp decline in its fertility rate. The
decline as a result of spread of primary
education is universal. But the impact
is much higher for Muslim women as
revealed through NFHS data.
G’nY. The median years of schooling
is the lowest among Muslims, being
3.7 years for women and 4.8 years for
men. What do you think are
the reasons?
The indicators such as number of
years of schooling, work participation
rate and more, can always be seen
from different perspectives. It would,
however, be misleading to draw
inference based on the average figures
across communities without looking
at the gender difference. Girls have a
lower attendance rate in educational
institutions as compared to boys in
both Hindu and Muslim communities.
Among Muslims, although the school
attendance rate for girls is much
below that of Hindus, the gender gap
in dropout rates is not very high.
Contrastingly, Hindu girls have high
dropout rates. The lesser number of
years for schooling among Muslims
are a result of poverty, with young boys
having to enter the labour market and
girls having to conform to tradition and
culture besides having to take care of
40 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
their younger siblings.
There is evidence that the
importance of these socio-cultural
factors in pulling down work
participation rate is declining over
time. Indeed, the labour market
scenario is changing fast with modern
ideas seeping into the communities,
bringing about attitudinal changes,
especially towards modern education.
More and more Muslim women are
entering the labour market. The fact
that educated Muslim women report
a very high unemployment rate is
evidence that societal norms have been
relaxed, permitting many more of these
women to seek jobs than the capacity
of the labour market to absorb them.
G’nY. Do you think low workforce
participation rate among Muslims
is a developmental issue and not
merely an employment concern?
The overall workforce participation
rate of Muslims is quite low compared
to ST-SCs or Hindus. This is arrived
at when we combine workforce
participation rates for men and women.
One must point out that while the
percentage of workers among Muslim
men is higher than the national average
while for Muslim women, it is the
opposite. A large section of Muslim
girls do not attend schools or enter
the labour market. Now, I have always
maintained that in order to get a better
understanding of the employment
scenario, we should calculate the
workforce participation rates for
men and women separately. Muslim
men record much larger percentage
of workers than Hindus, both in the
Census and the National Sample
Survey. Higher work participation rate
for Muslim men implies lesser number
of them going to schools and colleges.
It is extremely unfortunate that a large
segment of Muslim youth is unskilled
and unemployed. A section of them join
the workforce without proper education
or skills. This would certainly not help
in realising demographic dividend.
G’nY. Another issue that is current
and merits attention is that of
women’s migration, which has
considerably increased. What, in
your view, are the reasons for this?
Yes, that is true. Evidence in NSS
suggests that migration of women
has been increasing over the past
three decades both in rural and urban
areas. Marriage mobility of women is
determined by socio-cultural factors
that slowly change over time. Hence
the spurt in their migration rate must
be attributed to economic factors.
Importantly, NSS classifies the
migrants by reasons of mobility. This
too confirms that women’s migration
for economic reasons has gone up.
There are other macro level indicators
that confirm the above proposition.
NFHS 4, for example, shows that the
percentage of women aged 20-24
years becoming a mother below the
age of 18 has almost halved. It would,
therefore, be no surprise if women
work participation and their mobility
for economic reasons show a happy
rising trend. This conclusion can also
be derived from the 2011 Census data
on migration. Urban labour market is
offering employment opportunities to
women, although they are still at the
bottom of the economic ladder. A large
percentage of them work as domestic
helps whose demand has gone up with
the increase in work participation rate
among middle and upper class women.
Also, single male migration driven by
poverty and other push factors has
gone down. There is an increase in
family migration at higher income and
skill levels which too improves the
gender ratio among migrants.
 5
SaGHAA

Join us
The 5th National Conference on
Science & Geopolitics of
HIMALAYA-ARCTIC-ANTARCTIC
FOCUS: Technological Innovations and Research Expeditions
February 21-22, 2019, New Delhi
To register visit lights.org.in/registration
Organised by

lights.org.in
 Ne w eNerg y

By Sanjib Pohit and Sameer Malik

Developing Self
Sufficiency in
Energy Production
Energy consumption in India has increased greatly since the 1980s,
but domestic production has remained sluggish. Renewable energy
now offers a remedy to the low domestic production levels.

42 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

 Domestic production of energy
has been sluggish in response
to demand, and energy imports
have increased by 5.5 per cent
per annum during 2010-14.
Photo: PrasaD
H
istorically, there exists a significant
positive association between
the energy consumption and
countries’ Human Development
Index (HDI)—a composite
indicator of human well-being (Pasternik 2000,
International Energy Agency 2004). Countries
with lower per capita energy consumption tend to
have lower HDI; a higher HDI goes hand in hand
with increased per capita electricity consumption
(PCEC, kilowatt-hour). Once a country reaches
a reasonably high level of HDI, its energy
consumption will mainly depend on sectoral and
geographical factors.
Chidambaram (2001) observed that PCEC
is an important measure of development in
countries such as India. The author showed
that PCEC is not only related to per capita gross
national product (GNP), but it also correlates
strongly with life expectancy in developing
countries. Dubash (2012) opines that historically,
no country has improved its HDI without a
corresponding increase in energy consumption
and India cannot be an exception. Presently,
estimates from International Energy Agency and
World Bank databases show that India’s PCEC is
approximately 20 per cent of the global average, 4
per cent of the USA and 28 per cent of China’s per
capita energy consumption. Of course, it must be
mentioned that PCEC differs widely across states
and there are only a few states which may have
reached a plateau in respect of PCEC and HDI
(Fig. 1).Thus, if India aspires to be a developed
country in the coming decades, its per capita
electricity consumption is likely to increase at a
significant pace.
Energy consumption in India has grown by
5.5 per cent per annum since 1980, at par with
the fastest growing economies in the world,
particularly in Asia. Of the total increase in
consumption between 1980 and 2014, 93 per cent
was met by fossil fuels, with coal contributing the
largest at 57 per cent of the total increase, followed
by oil at 28 per cent and gas at 8 per cent. Non-
fossil fuels together contributed just 7 per cent of
the consumption increase during this period.
Domestic production has been sluggish in
responding to energy demand growth, and
imports have been high. India’s net energy
imports increased by 5.5 per cent per annum
44 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114
during 2010–14, as compared to 4.8 per cent per
annum in the first decade of the century. While
coal led the trend, with imports rising by 28.6
per cent per annum during this period, gas and
oil imports also rose by 12.4 and 4.9 per cent per
annum, respectively (Deb and Appleby, 2015/16).
Underlying this rapid increase in coal imports
were developments in domestic gas production.
As domestic gas production collapsed in India in
2010, energy demand shifted to imports. LNG, on
the other hand, entered a three-year lull in supply
growth in 2011. Following the 2011 Fukushima
nuclear disaster, there was an increased demand
towards gas based power in Japan and other
countries. As a result, Asian LNG demand (and
prices) were pushed to record highs, making gas
imports much more expensive than coal imports.
The result was the dramatic increase in coal
imports by India during 2010–14 (Fig. 2b). With
regard to sources of electricity generation, Figure
3 clearly shows India’s growing dependence on
‘coal’. While this is certainly a cause of concern,
we also see the decline in the use of other fossil
fuels like oil and gas. This may have been possible
due to the reduced use of fossil fuels with
renewable energy such as wind, solar, biomass,
water (hydro-power), and waste, stepping up
the electricity generation. The dependence on
coal can thus decline if the growth in supply of
renewable energy exceeds the growth in demand
of electricity. Certainly, it is very promising to see
the contribution of renewable energy in electricity
production almost doubling from 51,226 GWh
in 2011-12 to 101,839 GWh in 2017-18 (Estimates
from Central Electricity Authority, India).
In the present century, India is running one
of the largest renewable capacity expansion
programmes in the world. Between 2002 and
2015, the share of renewable grid capacity has
increased over six times, from 2 per cent (3.9
GW) to around 13 per cent (36 GW). In the years
2016-17 and 2017-18, aggregate capacities of 11.32
GW and 11.89 GW of renewable energy have
been added respectively, increasing the renewable
energy capacity installed in India to a total of 71.33
GW till June 2018 (Press Information Bureau,
2018). This increase in the past 16 years has to be
however, significantly scaled up with the aim to
achieve 175 GW of renewable energy capacity in
the next few years. Of course, this momentum is
Fig. 1: Per capita energy consumption and human development index of different states in India

High HDI High HDI

Kerala HighPCEC
Low PCEC

.7 Himachal Pradesh
Punjab
Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Haryana
.65

J&K
HDI

Low HDI Karnataka Gujarat

West Bengal
Low PCEC
Low HDI
.6

Andhra Pradesh
High PCEC
Rajasthan
Mizoram
Madhya
adhya Pradesh Odisha
.55

Uttar Pradesh
Bihar

0 500 1000 1500 2000

PCEC (kWh)
Note: Per Capita Consumption = (Gross Energy Generation + Net Import)/Mid - Year Population.
Source: Ministry of Power, UNDP 2015 Human Development Report.

While HDI and PCEC are directly proportional in most cases, exceptions
are witnessed in the states of Gujarat and Kerala, that occupy opposite
ends of the spectrum. In the case of Gujarat the PCEC is high but HDI
is low, while in Kerala, it is the opposite. This inverse relation can be
attributed to priority of expenditure on social sectors by the two states.

Fig. 2a: Net Energy Imports Fig. 2b: Coal Imported

Million Tonnes of Oil

400 400
Million Tonnes
Equivalent (Mtoe)

300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Year Year

Net energy imports increased by 5.5 per cent per The trend in increase of net energy imports
annum during 2010-14, as compared to 4.8 per cent was led by coal, with imports rising by 28.6
annum in the first decade of the century. per cent per annum.
Source: IEA World Energy Balances 2017 Source: India Energy, NITI Aayog
Note: Dark blue indicates the highest value.

driven partly by India’s commitment to the Paris power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based
Agreement, where India has agreed to reduce the energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer
emission intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 per cent of technology and low cost international finance
by 2030 from the 2005 levels. Further, the plan is including from Green Climate Fund (GCF). Thus,
to achieve about 40 per cent cumulative electric India intends to push towards renewable sources

geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 45

Fig. 3: Yearly gross electricity generation by source (GWh)

2017-18 Coal
Oil
2016-17 Gas
Nuclear While India’s growing
2015-16 dependence on coal is
Hydro*
Mini hydro a cause for concern, a
2014-15 decline can be witnessed
Solar
2013-14 in the use of fossil fuels
Wind
like oil and gas.
Bio mass
2012-13
Other
2011-12 Subtotal Renewables

0 5,00,000 10,00,000 15,00,000

Source: Central Electricity Authority, India. Note: (1) Hydro includes pumped storage generation.
(2) Data excludes Captive power.

Fig. 4: Current capacity and target capacity for renewable energy generation by 2022.

Aggregate 69.78 175

Wind 34.14 60
Solar 21.65 100
Hydro power 4.86 5
Bio power 9.50 10

Current capacity (March 2018) Target capacity (by 2022)

Solar energy production has grown the fastest in India,

accounting for the largest capacity addition to the Indian
electricity grid capacity in the last year.

Source: Central Electricity Authority, India.

as part of its commitment. Of course, this is a
win-win situation since India is relatively poorly
endowed in fossil fuel. Thus, the earlier India shifts
its energy mix away from fossil fuel towards green
(renewable) ones, the better it is in the long run.
Already, India’s domestic policy measures
towards clean energy (175 GW renewable energy
by 2022, which is equivalent to 50 per cent of
currently existing grid capacity) is more stringent
than the Paris commitment, and this target
is higher than that set by other countries that
are a party to the Agreement. In all likelihood
India will meet this target. Among the 175 GW
renewable energy target by 2022, the distribution
is as follows: 100 GW of solar, 60 GW of wind, 10
GW of biomass and 5 GW of small hydel. Among
renewables, the solar energy sector seems to have
grown fastest, accounting for the largest capacity
addition to the Indian electricity grid in the last
year and its rank in terms of overall growth is
expected to be the same this year.
However, the process of this growth in solar

46 August 1 - 15 2018  geogrAphy And you no. 114

India’s import
dependence for meeting
its solar equipment
demand was more than
90 per cent in past three
financial years.
capacity is not without blemish. India’s import
dependence for meeting its solar equipment
demand was more than 90 per cent in past three
financial years (PTI, 2018). Currently, extremely
low priced imports of solar cells/ module products
under consideration (PUC) are resulting in a
drop in sales in the domestic industry, hampering
internal growth. Statistics show that import
of solar cells primarily from China, Malaysia,
Singapore and Taiwan, has increased from 1,275
MW in 2014-15 to 9,331 MW in the fiscal year
(2017-18) (PTI, 2018). On the other hand, domestic
production stood at 246 MW in financial year
(FY) 2015 and is likely to increase to 1,164 MW
in the current financial year. Consequently, the
market share of domestic players has steadily
diminished from 13 per cent in FY15 to an
estimated 7 per cent in FY17. Thus in hindsight, we
are not achieving energy security in the real sense.
It seems that India is making the same mistake
that it made in the mobile revolution. The
revolution was entirely fuelled by imports—in
mobile architecture, associated software or mobile
sets. After a decade or so of this mobile revolution,
one can barely find an Indian made mobile set.
In contrast, China has embarked on a full-scale
mobile revolution wherein they can produce an
entire architecture in-house. The same is true in
the case of China’s shift towards solar energy.
In comparison, India seems to be too eager to
embark on a full-fledged solar programme riding
on import led growth.
If we ponder over the target set by the
government and the current levels (till March
2018) of the renewable energy capacity, we realise
that even though the growth rate of solar energy
sector is the fastest, it is also the sector that is
unable to meet most of its targets (Fig. 4). India
still has to increase its solar energy capacity by
a whopping 80 GW over the next four years to
meet this target. This presents both an incredible
opportunity and a perilous state of affairs. If India,
with the help of the government sector, can start
producing all the solar products domestically, it
will give a huge boost to the manufacturing sector,
and would also create a great number of jobs. But,
if we continue importing solar panels, India can
get snared in an ever increasing deficit. Even if
India keeps on managing its trade deficits, it will
still be a huge mistake to miss a win-win situation
to increase manufacturing and employment along
with providing a fillip to renewable energy!
India has enormous potential to produce
renewable energy. As per the information
available with the Ministry of New and
Renewable Energy (2015), India can produce
around 102 GW of energy from wind, 748
GW from solar, 19 GW from small-hydro, 22
GW from bio-power, and 2.5 GW from waste.
This amounts to a total of 896 GW of energy.
Placing this against the target of 175 GW by the
year 2022, it is easy to see the huge untapped
potential renewable energy has to offer.
references
International Energy Agency, 2004. World Energy
Outlook 2004, Available at: bit.ly/2ntPALp
Press Information Bureau, 2018. Cost of Generation
of Solar Power, Ministry of New and Renewable
Energy, August 2.
Press Trust of India, 2018. Government imposes
safeguard duty on solar cells import for two years,
The Times of India, July 30.
________________, 2018. India’s import dependence
for solar equipment over 90 per cent in last 3
fiscal: Government, Economic Times, July 19.
Pasternak A., 2000. Global Energy Futures and
Human Development: A Framework for Analysis,
US Department of Energy.
Dubash N.K., 2012. Handbook of Climate Change
and India Development, Politics and Governance.
Chidambaram R., 2001 Nuclear energy needs and
proliferation misconceptions, Current Science
81(1).
Deb K. and Appleby P., 2015/16. India’s Primary
Energy Evolution: Past Trends andFuture
Prospects. India Policy Forum,12.
The authors are Senior Fellow and Research Associate
at National Council for Applied Economic Research,
respectively. spohit@ncaer.org
geogrAphy And you  August 1 - 15 2018 47
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