16800distributions 1

Probability Distributions
Quantitative Aptitude & Business Statistics

Meaning of probability
distributions
 Theoretical or probability distributions
refer to mathematical models of
expected frequencies of a finite number
of observations of a variable with
associated probabilities.
 Theoretical distributions are based on
mathematical functions where as
observed frequency distributions are
based on actual observed frequencies.
Quantitaive Aptitude & Business 2
Statistics: Probability Distributions
Usefulness of theoretical
distributions
 Withknown parameters like mean
and standard deviation of
population or number of trails,
chances of success and so on,
probabilities of various values of a
variate can be found.

 Empirical models can be tested
for goodness of fit with
theoretical distribution available .
But such methods of testing is
recommended only when proper
choice form various theoretical
distributions is made.

Types of theoretical distributions
 Theoretical distributions are classified as
follows Theoretical
distributions
Discrete Continuous
Binomial, Poisson,
Multinomial
Normal

Meaning of Binomial Distribution
 Binomial Distribution is associated
with French Mathematician James
Bernoulli.
 Applies in situations where there
are a fixed number of repeated
trails of any experiment under
identical conditions for which only
one of the two mutually outcomes,
success or failure can result in
each trail. Quantitaive Aptitude & Business
6
Examples of Binomial Distribution
A fixed number of observations
(trials), n
 e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; 20
patients; 1000 people surveyed.

Continued
A binary random variable
 e.g., head or tail in each toss of
a coin; defective or not
defective light bulb.
 Generally called “success” and
“failure”.
 Probability of success is p,
probability of failure is 1 – p

Continued
 Constantprobability for each
observation.
 e.g.,Probability of getting a tail
is the same each time we toss
the coin.

Definition: Binomial Distribution
 Binomial:Suppose that n independent

experiments, or trials, are performed,
where n is a fixed number, and that
each experiment results in a “success”
with probability p and a “failure” with
probability 1-p. The total number of
successes, X, is a binomial random
variable with parameters n and p.
 We write: X ~ Bin (n, p)
{reads: “X is distributed
binomially with parameters n
and p}
 And the probability that X=r
(i.e., that there are exactly r
successes) is:
  r
n
n−r
P( X = r ) =   p (1 − p)
r
Quantitaive Aptitude & Business
11
n = number of trials
n X n− X
  p (1 − p)
X q=1-p =
probability of
X=# failure
successes P =probability
out of n of success
trials
Characteristics of Binomial
Distribution
 Mean=np
 Variance=npq
 SD=√npq
 n
 P(X))=   p (1 − p )
X n −X
X

Properties of Binomial Distribution
 As a p increases for a fixed n,the
binomial distribution shifts to the
right.
 As n increases for a fixed p,the
binomial distribution shifts to the
right.
 As n increases for a fixed p,the
mean of binomial distribution
increases.

 If n is large and if neither p nor q
is close to zero ,the binomial
distribution can be closely
approximately by a normal
distribution with a standard
variable given by
X − np
Z=
npq

Shape of Binomial
Distribution
Value of p Shape of Binomial
Distribution
If p= 0.5 Symmetrical
If p>0.5 Skewed to the

right
If p<0.5
Skewed to the left

Problem
 Q.A Coin tossed four times what
is the probability of getting
A) no head
B) exactly one head
C) exactly two heads
D) at least two heads

 Solution :
 Number of trails (n)=4
1
 Probability of getting ahead (P)= 2
1
 Probability of getting a tail (q)= 2
 Using binomial distribution ,the probability of r

successes is
 P (r)= n (P)r (q )n −r
cr
r 4−r
 P (r)=  1  1
4cr .  . 
 2  2
 A) Probability of getting no head P (r=0)
0 4−0
 P (r)=    
1 1
4c0    
 2  2
1
= 1× 1×
16
1
=
16

 B) Probability of getting exactly one head
P (r=1)
 P (r)= 1 4−1
   
1 1
4c1    
 2  2
1 1
= 4× ×
2 16
1
=
8

 C) Probability of getting exactly two heads
P (r=2) 2 4− 2
 P (r)=  1  1
4 c2    
 2  2
1 1
= 6× ×
4 4
3
=
8

 D) Probability of getting at least two heads
P (r=2 or more)
 P (r)= = P(r = 2) + P(r = 3) + P(r = 4)
2 4−2 3 1 4 0
 1  1  1  1  1  1
= 4c2     + 4c 3     + 4c4    
 2  2  2  2  2  2
3 1 1
= + +
8 4 16
11
=
16
 Q.An experiment succeeds
twice as many times as it
fails. Find the chance that in
6 trails ,there will be atleast
5 success.

Solution
 No. of trails (n)=6
2
 Probability of Success (P)=
3 1
 Probability of Failures (q)=1- 3 =
2
3
 P (r=5 or 6)= P (r=5)+P(r=6)
 5 6− 5 6 6−6
 2  1  2  1
= 6C5     + 6C6    
 3  3  3  3
32 1 64
= 6. × + 1× ×1
243 3 729
64 64 256
= + =
243 729 729
Quantitaive Aptitude & Business
24
Q. Calculate the mean of the binomial
distribution in each of the following
alternative case
A. No. of trails=6,Probability of
success=1/3
B. No. of trails=9,Probability of
failure=1/3
C. probability of failure=2/3,SD=2

Solution
 Case (a) No. of trails=6,Probability of
success=1/3
1
Mean =n p=6= 6×
3
=2
Case B. No. of trails=9,Probability of

failure=1/3
Mean =np= 9 × 2 = 6
3

C. probability of failure=2/3,SD=2
1 2 2n
 SD= npq = n × × = =2
3 3 9
2n
=4
9
n = 18

Q. Calculate the SD of the binomial
distribution in each of the following
alternative case
A.No.of trails=6,Probability of
success=1/3
B.No.of trails=9,Probability of
failure=1/3
C. probability of failure=2/3,Mean=6

A. No.of trails=6,Probability of success=1/3
1 2 4 2
SD = npq = 6 × × = =
3 3 3 3
B. No.of trails=9,Probability of failure=1/3
1 2 6
SD = npq = 9 × × = = 2 = 1.414
3 3 3

 C. probability of failure=2/3,Mean=6
1
 Mean=np= n× = 6
3
n = 18
1 2
SD = npq = 18 × × = 4 = 2
3 3

 1. Binomial distribution is ___
 (a) a continuous probability
distribution
 (b) a continuous observed
frequency distribution
 (c) a discrete observed frequency
distribution
 (d) a discrete probability
distribution
 1. Binomial distribution is ___
 (a) a continuous probability
distribution
 (b) a continuous observed
frequency distribution
 (c) a discrete observed frequency
distribution
 (d) a discrete probability
distribution
 2. Variance of binomial distribution =
 (a) np
 (b) nq
 (c) npq
 (d) 1/npq

 2. Variance of binomial distribution =
?
 (a) np
 (b) nq
 (c) npq
 (d) 1/npq

 3. If mean and standard deviation of
a binomial distribution is 10 and 3
respectively; q will be ___
 (a) 0.3
 (b) 0.33
 (c) 30
 (d) 0.9

 3. If mean and standard deviation of
a binomial distribution is 10 and 3
respectively; q will be ___
 (a) 0.3
 (b) 0.33
 (c) 30
 (d) 0.9

 4. In binomial distribution
 (a) mean is greater than variance
 (b) mean is less than variance
 (c) mean is equal to variance
 (d) none of these

 4. In binomial distribution
 (a) mean is greater than variance
 (b) mean is less than variance
 (c) mean is equal to variance

 5. The probability mass function of
binomial distribution is given by
 (a) f(x) = nCx.px.qn-x
 (b) f(x) = p x. q .n-x
 (c) f(x) = n px .p x. q n-x
 (d) f(x) = nCx .pn-x .qx

 5. The probability mass function of
binomial distribution is given by
(a) f(x) = nCx.px.qn-x
(b) f(x) = p x. q .n-x
(c) f(x) = n px .p x. q n-x
(d) f(x) = nCx .pn-x .qx

Introduction to the Poisson Distribution
 Poisson Distribution was originated by
French mathematician Simon Denis Poisson
in 1837.
 The Poisson Distributions limiting form of
binomial distribution
 It is a discrete probability distribution .
 It applies in situations here the probability of
success (p) is very small and that of failure (q)
 Poisson distribution is for counts—if events
happen at a constant rate over time, the
Poisson distribution gives the probability of
X number of events occurring in time T.
Poisson Distribution, example
The Poisson distribution tells you
the probability of all possible
numbers of new cases, from 0 to
infinity.
If X= # of new cases next month
and X ~ Poisson (λ), then the
probability that X=k (a particular
count) is:

k −λ
λe
p( X = k ) =
k!

Poisson Mean and Variance
 Mean µ =λ
For a Poisson
random
variable, the
variance and
 Variance and Standard
mean are the
Deviation same!
2
σ =λ
σ= λ
where λ = expected number of hits in a
given time period
Problems
 Q.1 The number of customers at the
ticket counter of a theater at a rate of
120per hour .Find the probability
during a given minute.
 A) no customers appear
 B) only one customers appears
 C) atleast two customers appear

Solution
 Average no. of customers per minute
m=120/60=2
m r e− m 2r (0.1353)
p( X = r ) = =
r! r!
 A) no customers appear
0 −m
2e 1 (0.1353)
p(r = 0) = = = 0.1353
0! 1

 B) only one customers appears
1 −m
2e 2 (0.1353)
p(r = 1) = = = 0.2706
1! 1
 C) at least two customers appear
1 − [P(r = 0) + P(r = 1)]

= 1 − [0.1353 + 0.2706]
= 0.3235
 Q. The mean of the poission
distribution 4. Find
 A) Variance
B)SD
 C) First four moments
 D)β1 and β2

 The mean of the poission
distribution 4.
 A) Variance=m=4
 B) SD= σ = m = 4 = 2
 D) First moment µ1 = 0
 Second moment µ 2 =4
 Third moment µ3 =4
 Fourth moment µ 4 =m+3m2=52

 β1 = µ 23 m 2 42 1
= 3= 3=
µ2 m
3
4 4
 β2 = µ 4 m + 3m 2 4 + 3.42 52
= = = = 3.25
µ22
m 2
42
16

 1. An ‘n’ increases the poisson
distribution
 (a) shifts to the right
 (b) shifts to the left
 (c) does not shifts at all

 1. An ‘n’ increases the poisson
distribution
 (a) shifts to the right
 (b) shifts to the left
 (c) does not shifts at all

 2. In distribution mean = variance
 (a) normal
 (b) binomial
 (c) poisson

 2. In distribution mean = variance
 (a) normal
 (b) binomial
 (c) poisson

 3. In a poisson distribution
 (a) e=2.7138
 (b) e=2.1738
 (c) e=2.1783
 (d) e=2.7183

 (a) e=2.7138
 (b) e=2.1738
 (c) e=2.1783
 (d) e=2.7183

 (a) p=q
 (b) p>q
 (c) p<q

 (a) p=q
 (b) p>q
 (c) p<q

 5.Which one is not a condition of poisson
model
 (a) the probability of having success in a
small time interval is constant
 (b) the probability of having success
more than one in a small time interval is
very small
 (c) the probability of having success in a
small interval in independent of time and
also of earlier success
 (d) the probability of having success in a
small time interval (t, t+td) is Kt for a
positive constant k.

 5.Which one is not a condition of poisson
model
 (a) the probability of having success in a
small time interval is constant
 (b) the probability of having success
more than one in a small time interval is
very small
 (c) the probability of having success in a
small interval in independent of time and
also of earlier success
 (d) the probability of having success in a
small time interval (t, t+td) is Kt for a
positive constant k.

Normal distribution
 The normal distribution is a descriptive
model that describes real world
situations.
 It is defined as a continuous frequency
distribution of infinite range (can take
any values not just integers as in the
case of binomial and Poisson
distribution).

 This is the most important probability
distribution in statistics and
important tool in analysis of
epidemiological data and management
science.

Characteristics of Normal Distribution
 It links frequency distribution to
probability distribution.
 Has a Bell Shape Curve and is
Symmetric.
 It is Symmetric around the mean:
Two halves of the curve are the
same (mirror images)

 Hence Mean = Median
 The total area under the curve is 1 (or
100%)
 Normal Distribution has the same
shape as Standard Normal Distribution.

 Q1 and Q3 are equidistant from the
median and hence
 Q1=Mean-0.6745SD
 Q3=Mean+0.6745SD
 and Quartile Deviation is 2/3rd or
more precisely0.6745of the SD
 The mean deviation is 4/5 th or more
precisely 0.7979of the SD

Distinguishing Features
 The mean ± 1 standard deviation
covers 68.27% of the area under
the curve
the curve
the curve Quantitaive Aptitude & Business 66
Importance of Normal Distribution
 It has a property of central limit
theorem.
 As the sample size (n) becomes
large, the normal distribution
serves as good approximation of
many discrete distributions such
as binomial and poisson.

 It has many mathematical
properties which makes easy to
manipulate for use in social and
natural science
 It is useful in SQC and industrial
experiments.
 It is useful in finding estimates
and parameters and confidence
intervals and tests of significance

Contd.,
 In a Standard Normal Distribution:
The mean (μ ) = 0 and
Standard deviation (σ) =1

Area under normal curve to determine
the probability
Area to the right of a 0.5-tablevalue

positive value of ‘Z’
(i.e to find above
value of X)
Area to the left of a 0.5+tablevalue

(i.e to find below
value of X)

Area to the right of a 0.5+tablevalue
negative value of ‘Z’
(i.e to find above
value of X)
Area to the left of a 0.5-tablevalue

(i.e to find below
value of X)

Area between two Difference of their
positive values of ‘Z’ tabular values
(i.e to find between two
values of X)
Area between two Difference of their

negative values of ‘Z’ tabular values
(i.e to find between two
values of X)

Area to the right of a Sum of their tabular
positive value of ‘Z’ values
(i.e to find between
two values of X)

 X −µ
Z=
σ
 Z indicates how many standard deviations
away from the mean the point x lies.
 Z score is calculated to 2 decimal places.

Problem
 Q.A normal distribution has
standard deviation of 200 and
mean of 800.Find the area of
standard normal variate in each of
the following alternative cases
 Case (a) for X=600
 Case (b) for X below 600

 Casea) Standard normal variate
corresponds to 600
X − X 600 − 800
Z= = = −1
σ 200
 Areabetween Z=0 and Z=-1 is

0.3413
 Case b) Standard normal variate
corresponds to 600
X − X 600 − 800
Z= = = −1
σ 200
 Area between Z=0 and Z=-1 is

0.3413
 Thus, P(Z<-1)=0.50-0.3413=0.1587
 1. In a normal distribution is
 (a) mean=median=mode
 (b) mean>median>mode
 (c) mean<median<mode
 (d) mode=3median–2mean

 1. In a normal distribution is
 (a) mean=median=mode
 (b) mean>median>mode
 (c) mean<median<mode
 (d) mode=3median–2mean

 2. The normal distribution is known as
standard normal distribution with
 (a) Mean=1 and SD=0

 (b) Mean=1 and SD=1
 (c) Mean = 0 and SD=1
 (d) Mean=0 and SD=1

 2. The normal distribution is known as
standard normal distribution with
 (a) Mean =1 and SD=0

 (b) Mean=1 and SD=1
 (c) Mean= 0 and SD=1
 (d) Mean=0 and SD=-1

 3. In a normal distribution skewness is
___
 (a) 0
 (b) >3
 (c) <3
 (d) <1

 3. In a normal distribution skewness is
___
 (a) 0
 (b) >3
 (c) <3
 (d) <1

 4. The normal curve is
 (a) bell-shaped
 (b) U shaped
 (c) J shaped
 (d) inverted J shaped

 4. The normal curve is
 (a) bell-shaped
 (b) U shaped
 (c) J shaped
 (d) inverted J shaped

 5. A normal distribution is ___
 (a) unimodal
 (b) bimodal
 (c) multimodal

 5. A normal distribution is ___
 (a) unimodal
 (b) bimodal
 (c) multimodal

 6. The probability function of normal
distribution is 1  x −µ 
2
1 
2 σ 

(a) p (x)= e
σ 2π
2
1  µ−x 
(b) p (x) = 1 
2 σ 

e
σ 2π
2
1  x −µ 
1 − 
2 σ 

e
(c) p (x) = σ 2π
(d) none of these Quantitaive Aptitude & Business
89
 6. The probability function of normal distribution
is 1  x −µ 
2
1  
(a) p (x)= e 2 σ 
σ 2π
2
1  µ −x 
(b) p (x) = 1  
2 σ 
e
σ 2π
2
1  x −µ 
(c) p (x) = 1 − 
2 σ 

e
σ 2π
(d) none of these
 7. The mean deviation about median of a
standard normal variate is
(a) 0.675
(b) 0.675
(c) 0.80
(d) 0.80 σ

 7. The mean deviation about median of a
standard normal variate is
(a) 0.675
(b) 0.675
(c) 0.80
(d) 0.80 σ

 8. The quartile deviation of a normal
distribution with mean 10 and SD 4 is
(a) 0.675
(b) 67.50
(c) 2.70
(d) 3.20

 8. The quartile deviation of a normal
distribution with mean 10 and SD 4 is
(a) 0.675
(b) 67.50
(c) 2.70
(d) 3.20

 9. The symbol (a) indicates the area
of the standard normal curve between
 (a) 0 to a
 (b) a to œ
 (c) – œ to a
 (d) – œ to œ

 9. The symbol (a) indicates the area of
the standard normal curve between
 (a) 0 to a
 (b) a to œ
 (c) –œ to a
 (d) –œ to œ

 10.The interval (m–3s ; m+3 s) curves
 (a) 95% area of a normal distribution

 (b) 96% area of a normal distribution
 (c) 99% area of a normal distribution
 (d) all but 0.27% area of a normal
distribution

 10.The interval (m–3s ; m+3 s) curves
 (a) 95% area of a normal distribution

 (b) 96% area of a normal distribution
 (c) 99% area of a normal distribution
 (d) all but 0.27% area of a normal
distribution

 11.In normal distribution the probability
has a maximum value at the
 (a) mode
 (b) mean
 (c) median

 11.In normal distribution the probability
has a maximum value at the
 (a) mode
 (b) mean
 (c) median

 12. In a normal distribution ___
(a) standard deviation = 4 mean deviation
5
(b) standard deviation = 5 mean deviation

4
(c) standard deviation =

2 quartile
deviation 3
(d) none of these

12. In a normal distribution ___
(a) standard deviation = 4 mean
deviation 5
(b) standard deviation = 5 mean
4
deviation
(c) standard deviation = 2 quartile
deviation 3
(d) none of these

 13. In a normal distribution, median is equal
to ___
Q1 + Q 3
 (a)
2
Q 3 − Q1
 (b)
2
 Q1 + mean
(c)
2
Q 3 − mean
 (d) 2
 13. In a normal distribution,
median is equal to ___
Q1 + Q 3
 (a)
2
 (b) Q 3 − Q1
2
Q1 + mean
(c)
2
Q 3 − mean
 (d)
2
 14. In a normal distribution is ___
 (a) mean + 1’s covers 68.72% of

the items
 (b) mean + 2’s covers 95.54% of
the items
 (c) mean + 3’s covers 99.73% of
the items
 (d) all of above
 14. In a normal distribution is ___
 (a) mean + 1’s covers 68.72% of

the items
 (b) mean + 2’s covers 95.54% of
the items
 (c) mean + 3’s covers 99.73% of
the items
 (d) all of above
 15.The total area of the normal curve
is
 (a) one
 (b) 50%
 (c) 0.50
 (d) any value between 0 and 1

 15.The total area of the normal curve
is
 (a) one
 (b) 50%
 (c) 0.50
 (d) any value between 0 and 1

THE END
Probability Distributions

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Probability Distributions

Quantitative Aptitude & Business Statistics

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 Binomial:Suppose that n independent

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If p>0.5 Skewed to the

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 Using binomial distribution ,the probability of r

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Case B. No. of trails=9,Probability of

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1 − [P(r = 0) + P(r = 1)]

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The mean (μ ) = 0 and

Standard deviation (σ) =1