The Science of Discovery

Moving from an Exploration to a

Discovery Mindset
Tim Craske, Geowisdom and Thinker.Events
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Ride the Wave!
Unstoppable commodity price swells and waves…...

Missed Wave
Stranded Resource

Surfing Price Trends

Over investment
Shaping Market at cost peak
Smashed

Background Image source: Inhabitat.com

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Beware Probability Blindness
Specific numeric probability definitions: (CIA via Strictly Boardroom)
• Certain: 100%
• Almost certain: 93% (+/- 6%)
• Probable: 75% (+/- 12%)
• Chances about even: 50% (+/- 10%)
• Probably not: 30% (+/- 10%)
• Almost certainly not: 7% (+/- 5%)
• Impossible: 0%
Based on this chance of large mineral deposit discovery
should be considered close to impossible!
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 Capability gap closure – requires Innovation
LEVEL OF INNOVATION REQUIRED
Company → Sector → Industry

Transformational
Competences

Radical Improvement
Breakthrough Industrywide
Collaborative
Innovation
Incremental

Company → Sector → Industry Changing the Rules or Meaning

Value Creation

To get there need more Idealistic Goals Incremental Changes

Simple Processes
Backcast from these rather than trying to
Forecast the future via incremental projections

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POWER OF PERCEPTION

“Most thinking errors are

errors of perception
not errors of logic”
Edward De Bono

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Rule#2:“Fight the Hydra” – Multi-Headed Dogma

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Rudolph Tegner -Hercules and the Hydra 1919
“Mining turns rocks into $Money”

Image Source: www.amusingplanet.com Stone Sculptures by Hirotoshi Itoh, 2012

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Exploration needs a broader Conceptual Framework

Mineralising
Systems
Science
Stakeholders
Licence to
Value OperateTargeting
Chain Science

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 Mineralising
Systems
Science
Discovery
Science
Stakeholders
Licence to
Value Operate Targeting
Chain Science

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What got you here…won’t get you there!
Take care listening to old war stories
• We have hero’s of discovery
• David Lowell – Porphyry Coppers
including Escondida in 1979
• Nikolay Urvantsev – Norilsk Nickel
Copper sulphides in 1914
• Roy Woodall – Kambalda Ni 1966
David Lowell Roy Woodall - ExDiv successes OD
(source: Mining.com) (source: Aus Acc Sci)
• Men of their day
- given search space at given time
Nikolay • To do same today we would need to do
Urvantsev differently
(Norilsk)

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 A Cruel Paradox?
It would appear that knowing in great detail how a deposit can form…
…….does not help much in making them easy to find!

Example: VMS deposits……ask Sandfire Resources

Logical Deduction: Studying deposits to understand how they formed

may not help us much……
……So why continue to invest in these PhD studies
vs Mineralising Geosystem studies?

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 Reality: Typical Detection Level Tool
False-Positives
swamp target population
Positive
*If go under deeper cover
cost of systematic testing
becomes prohibitive

False-Negatives
Tool not effective Negative
in search space
Anomalies missed

False True

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 Other Inconvenient Truths
 Current science and tools are not finding orebodies…….
 The two globally best known and most successful explorers –
Mark Creasy and Robert Friedland …….are not geologists
 Big Picture geoscience is often just science…….not applied by explorers
 Serendipity still appears more important than geology in discovery
 The best exploration thinkers and mineral discovers do not work for
major or even medium sized companies….many are underemployed

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Beware the “Planning Fallacy”

Planning does not eliminate Uncertainty or Risk!

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New Hope#1: Organising and Teamwork
• Teams have left brain analytical
DEDUCTIVE thinkers and
• Right Brain more intuitive
INDUCTIVE thinkers
• Targeting requires integration of
both and ABDUCTIVE thinking
• Need to leverage all thinking skill
sets in the team
• Rule takers , rule makers and
rule imagineers
Source: research-methodology.net

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 Big Data
Data
Information
Knowledge
Understanding Imagination
Plus
Imagination

Wisdom

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 Rule #5: Use Imagineering

“Imagination is more important than Knowledge”

Albert Einstein

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RULE #6: Make Luck
= Planned Serendipity

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 What is Serendipity?
The combination of accident and sagacity

?
Sagacity
We need to recognise the VALUE of chance event
‘deep perception’ or ‘awareness’

Black Swan Events? Cannot predict …….but can

often recognise signs of approaching event
e.g. GFC – signs that balancing feedback loops not
working

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How to attract Good Luck?
• “Luck is opportunity meeting preparedness”
• Roy Woodall
spoke about important role of luck in discovery

• Luck is usually retrospective…..

• But HINDSIGHT very dangerous - rationalisation ≠ truth

• Luck Attractors: generosity (wealth not $)

increased energy
lucky mindset

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BIG Rule #7: Use Systems Thinking
• Gain deep understanding of Systems
• Make Systems Maps
• Use mathematics to model and test sensitivities
• Analyse for insights and identification of key levers

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The Why? – without Systems Thinking
we get it wrong….

Feedback Loops Expected

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 Example: Tin
Mineralising System
Mapping
Helping us understand
& predict ore since 2017

Sedimentary Accumulation
Sub-system

Granitic Accumulation
Sub-system

Ore System
Sub-systems

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The Discovery Science Mindset
1. Humility
2. Contrarian Thinking
3. Real Team Diversity
4. Wealth not Dollar$
5. Imagineer
6. Make Luck – Planned Serendipity
7. Use Systems Thinking
8. Mineralising Systems are Pan-dimensional
e.g. fractal structure
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