DEFENSE GEOGRAPHY

Associate professor Vladimir Prebilič, Ph. D.

Academic year 2010/2011
PERCEPTION OF POVERTY
 3 billion human beings subsist on less than $2 per day - $730 per year
 poverty isn‟t just sentence to misery; it can often be a sentence to
death – it leads to
 hunger or malnutrition – weaker organism
 preventable diseases become lethal
 no or limited access to clean water
 no or bad health care
 each day die 30.000 children under
five years old from preventable illnesses
• children in 20 % poorest households
face three times greater possibility to
die than children in 20% richest
2households
  where human needs are great and
service gaps persist, people tend to
accept help from almost anyone willing
to provide it
 poor states fail to meet the basic needs
of many of their citizens:
 for food
 for clean water
 for health care
 for education
 there is a direct correlation between
poor states and failed states – each leads
to the other
 most common for poor is the social
inequality and erosion of social
3
cohesion
 TRANSNATIONAL “SPILLOVERS” (from
Weak States)
 conflict and poverty:
 poor countries are much more
likely to experience civil war =
state with half of average has 11%
chances for civil war and state with
only 10% of average income has
18% in the next five years
 correlation between poverty and
conflict is really high
 case of Sierra Leone = negative
economic growth (-35%) resulted
in civil war in 1991
 they last over 16 years, one third
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later reignite = “conflict trap”
TERRORISM AND POVERTY
 weak and poor countries are prey of different terroristic
organizations:
 countries aren‟t able of any control = organization of camps
 citizens are accustomed of violence and therefore ready to take part
 terrorists have financial resources = sacrifice of people or even the
governments
 terrorists are able of ideological mobilization = point out the “reason”
for misery of the people
 terrorists are capable of mobilizing the natural resources = with
collaboration of governments
 consequently al-Qaeda stationed itself in different African states –
case of Mali, Nigeria, Sudan – they searched strong Muslim
population in the state
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 DISEASE AND POVERTY
 thirty new infectious diseases that emerged globally
over past three decades originated in developing
coutries – low diesase surveillance capability
 reasons are:
 human exposure to zootic diseases – life in close
proximity to livestock = mitation and resistance of
viruses
 poor social and medical system in state = no preventive
measures and limited acces to medicine with adequate
knowledge
 great voulnaribility of people = malnutrition diminishes
the immunity
 the fatality rate is 90 % in DRC and 0 % in New York
6
becaise of ebola virus
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
AND POVERTY
 relationship between poverty, state
weakness and environmental degradation is
complex and mutually reinforcing
 population growth means huge pressure on
land
 demands on natural resources are great –
low usable outcome
 deforestation means vertical and horizontal
erosion – case of Haiti
 no national strategy on using the natural
resources
7  environment is “lower” than the life of
human being
 people living on fragile land in
developing countries has doubled –
to 1.3 billion
 rural population growth remains
higher than average in countries
with 30 % or more living on fragile
land
 73 % of fragile ecological areas and
have a very limited ability to sustain
high population densities • problem of intensity: lack of
knowledge but also no other
 vulnerable to: degradation, erosion,
alternative
flooding, fires, landslides, climatic
• pressure in both ways:
change
developing and developed
 people use 20 % more biologically countries – environmental
8 productive hectares than estimated harm varies
HUNGER AND POVERTY
 hunger is the most commonly used
term to describe the social
condition of people (or organisms)
who frequently experience, or live
with the threat of experiencing,
the physical sensation of desiring
food. • a famine is a widespread
scarcity of food that may
 malnutrition is the condition that
apply to any faunal species.
results from taking an unbalanced This phenomenon is usually
diet in which certain nutrients are accompanied or followed by
lacking, in excess (too high an regional malnutrition,
intake), or in the wrong starvation, epidemic, and
proportions increased mortality.
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10
 MALNUTRITION AND POVERTY
 the World Health Organization (WHO) cites malnutrition as
the gravest single threat to the world's public health.
Improving nutrition is widely regarded as the most effective
form of aid
 there are generally two approaches to fight malnutrition:
 emergency measures include providing deficient micronutrients
through fortified sachet powders, such as peanut butter, or
directly through supplements
 long term measures include investing in modern agriculture in
places that lack them, such as fertilizers and irrigation, which
largely eradicated hunger in the developed world
 there is a direct correlation between malnutrition and
11 poverty – no means for long term measures
 Percentage of undernourished population in the world – 2006.

There is a correlation between:

economic development and hunger
“usable” agricultural land and population on one hand and
hunger on the other
demographics and percentage of undernourished population
12
state weakness and hunger
 HUNGER AND FAMINE
 a famine is a widespread scarcity of food that may apply to any faunal
species. This phenomenon is usually accompanied or followed by regional
malnutrition, starvation, epidemic and increased mortality

13
DEMOGRAPHY AND POVERTY
 neo-Malthusians emphasise that rapid population growth,
environmental degradation, resource depletion, and unequal
resource access may produce conflict situation
 but they can‟t produce large-scale organized violence – the poor
lack the capabilities to rebel
 demographic and environmental stress can undermine state
authority in a number of ways:
 demands will grew and state may not be able to fulfill them
 many demands are connected with great fiscal strains – budgetary
trade-offs are necessary
 economic productivity decrease – reduction of revenue available to
the government
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  there is always sinergy between three
phenomena:
 rapid population growth
 environmental degradarion
 resource depletion
 unequal resource access
 some elements make a particular region
more vulnerable to famine among them are:
 poverty
 inappropriate physical infrastructure
 inappropriate social infrastructure
 a suppressive political regime
 a weak or under-prepared government

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 Food security
 two commonly used definitions of food security are:
 food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social
and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet
their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life
(FAO)
 food security for a household means access by all members at all times
to enough food for an active, healthy life. Food security includes at a
minimum (1) the ready availability of nutritionally adequate and safe
foods, and (2) an assured ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially
acceptable ways (that is, without resorting to emergency food
supplies, scavenging, stealing, or other coping strategies) (USDA)

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 What to do?
 there are two ways of food
security increase:
 control over the population
growth (question of location)
 greater agricultural
production (question of
environmental degradation)
 but the main question  irrigation is one way of enhanced
remains unanswered: the agricultural productivity – but
right food distribution on may have great environmental
planet consequences and is solution in
 humanitarian help doesn‟t case of available financial
eliminate the reasons for resources
starvation
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How to increase rural income?
 …by increasing of agricultural productivity – several steps are
recommended:
 through boosting agricultural science and technology – current
agricultural yields are insufficient to feed the growing populations -
eventually, the rising agricultural productivity drives economic
growth.
 securing property rights and access to finance
 enhancing human capital through education and improved health
 conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms and democracy and
governance based on principles of accountability and transparency in
public institutions and the rule of law are basic to reducing
vulnerable members of society
 for such steps time, resources and strong international
18 commitment is needed – is Western world sincere in this help?
 MIGRATIONS AND SECURITY
 poor states are considered as a high-risk zone for local insecurity:
 directly = migration of violence to neighboring regions
 indirectly = migration of “insecurity elements” to any state on Earth
 more than 2 million travelers cross an international border each
day; between 1994 and 2006 air traffic volume grew from 2.1 to
4 trillion passengers
 since 1970 total seaborne trade has tripled and will grow
 transnational security threats can arise from and spread to
anywhere on the planet
 if unable to control the national territory state may challenge the
insecurity situation
 some migrations are difficult to control – refugees and IDPs
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 REFUGEES AND SECURITY
 Under the UN Convention Relating to the
Satus of Refugees of 1951, a refugee is
more narrowly defined (in Article 1A) as a
person who: "owing to a well-founded fear
of being persecuted for reasons of race,
religion, nationality, membership of a
particular social group, or political
opinion, is outside the country of his
nationality, and is unable to or, owing to
such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of
the protection of that country".

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 according to international refugee law, a refugee is someone
who seeks refuge in a foreign country because of war and
violence, or out of fear of persecution.
 the practical determination of whether a person is a refugee
or not is most often left to certain government agencies
within the host country. This can lead to a situation where
the country will neither recognize the refugee status of the
asylum seekers nor see them as legitimate migrants and treat
them as illegal aliens
 not all migrants seeking shelter in another country fall under
the definition of "refugee" according to article 1A of the
Geneva Convention = some of them are considered as
economic migrants – however the line is quite thin (case of
Zimbabwe and South Africa)
  the lead international
agency coordinating
refugee protection is the
Office of the UN High
Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR),
which counted
8,400,000 refugees
worldwide at the
beginning of 2006.
• there are always two sets of countries:
• source countries of refugees (Afghanistan, Iraq, Myanmar,
Sudan and Palestinian Territories)
• target countries of refugees are mostly neighboring countries
22 (Jordan, Lebanon, Chad, Pakistan)
 PERSONS OF CONCERN TO UNHCR MAJOR IDP POPULATIONS OF
CONCERN TO UNHCR
- BY REGION
[at 1 January 2006]
Region 1 Jan 2005* 1 Jan 2006 Country IDPs
Asia 7,230,100 8,603,600 Colombia 2,000,000
Africa 4,855,200 5,169,300 (UNHCR
Europe 4,426,400 3,666,700 estimate)
Iraq 1,200,000
Latin America 2,070,800 2,513,000
& Caribbean Sudan 841,900
Azerbaijan 578,500
North America 853,300 716,800
Somalia 400,000
Oceania 82,600 82,500 Sri Lanka 324,700
TOTAL 19,518,400 20,751,900 Serbia & 246,400
Montenegro
Liberia 237,800
Georgia 234,200
Bosnia & 182,700
Herzegovina
Russian 170,500
Federation
Afghanistan 142,500
Yearly report of UNHCR for 2010
http://www.unhcr.org/4d8c5b109.html
 Refugees and total population of concern to UNHCR 1981-
 security issues when discussing 2006
(figures as of 1 January)1
the refugees are: Year Refugees Total Population of
Concern
 medical issues – a large –
1981 8,455,000 –
percentage of refugees develop 1982 9,714,000 –
1983 10,319,000 –
symptoms of post-traumatic 1984 10,621,000 –
1985 10,728,000 –
stress disorder 1986 11,864,000 –
1987 12,634,000 –
 refugees have been used and 1988 13,128,000 –
1989 14,347,000 –
recruited as refugee warriors 1990 14,733,000 –
1991 17,396,000 –
 the humanitarian aid directed at 1992 16,855,000 –
1993 17,838,000 –
refugee relief has very rarely been 1994 16,326,000 –
utilized to fund the acquisition of 1995
1996
15,754,000
14,896,000
–
–
arms 1997
1998
13,357,000
12,015,400
20,047,700
20,124,700
 enabling conflict to spread across 1999
2000
11,480,900
11,687,200
20,821,800
22,006,100
borders 2001
2002
12,129,600
12,116,800
20,028,900
20,892,500
 migration of war criminals and 2003
2004
10,594,100
9,680,300
17,101,300
19,518,400
war lords 2005 9,559,100 20,751,900
24 2006 8,394,400
 huge burden on host country
 Repatriation of refugees
 according to international humanitarian law the pre-conflict status
quo should be maintained by law enforcement authorities - however
conflict is a highly transformative force and the pre-war status-quo
can never be reestablished completely, even if that were desirable –
it may have caused the conflict in the first place
 … is extremely difficult procedure because:
 it is difficult to leave behind security status (always also the economic
reasons)
 return to what? – property is lost, security situation is fragile (will they
be accepted)
 who will provide security – post conflict states are normally weak states
 international community has limited resources for in place help
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 difficult procedure of reconciliation
 IDP – Internal Displaced Persons
 unlike the case of refugees, there is no international treaty which
applies specifically to IDPs.
 an internally displaced person (IDP) is someone who is forced to
flee their home but who remains within their country's borders.
They are often referred to as refugees, although they do not fall
within the current legal definition of a refugee. At the end of 2006
it was estimated there were 24.5 million IDPs in some 52
countries. The region with the largest IDP population is Africa
with some 11.8 million in 21 countries
 the country with the largest number of IDPs is Sudan, with over
5 million. As of 2006, with 800,000 refugees and IDPs,
Azerbaijan had the highest per capita IDP population in the
world.
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  the largest IDP populations can
be found in Colombia, the DRC,
Iraq, Sudan and Azerbaijan each
with IDP populations of over
one million
 an updated country by country
breakdown can be found at:
IDMC Global Statics
(http://www.internal-
displacement.org/8025708F004CE90B/(httpPages)/22FB1
D4E2B196DAA802570BB005E787C?OpenDocument&coun • IDPs camp Kitgum in Uganda
t=1000)

 it has been estimated that

• it has been estimated that some
between 70 and 80% of all IDPs 5 million IDPs in 11 countries
are women and children are "without any significant
 unlike the case of refugees, there humanitarian assistance from
is no international humanitarian their governments."
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institution with resposibility
 ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES
 environmental migrant refers to the people who are purportedly
forced to migrate from or flee their home region due to sudden or
long-term changes to their local environment, which is held to
include increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and
disruption of seasonal weather patterns such as monsoons
 this 'type' of migration has yet to be proven, in that it has yet to be
defined in a way that allows such migrants to be distinguished from
economic migrants or political refugees
 despite problems of definition environmental and social scientists
attempt to conceptualize the potential societal ramifications of
climate change and general environmental degradation
 limited access to food, potable water, living space,… can this be
28 also reason for seeking refugee?
DEMOGRAPHY AND POVERTY
 there is not a direct link between two phenomena, however many
correlations may be proven:
 poor regions have young demographic regimes (more youth)
 since mortality rises, fertility rises even more – danger of population
explosion (drop of mortality)
 richer communities are older societies
 poor populations are vulnerable demography leads into different ways
of scarcities
 migrations flows represent the difference between poor and less poor
societies
 poverty may lead to anomalies in the demographic structure of
population (sex and age)
 poor societies “fight” against poverty by higher birth rates – it leads
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into more difficult situation
World population – distribution by states

 is currently estimated to be 6.92 billion

 the world population has experienced continuous growth since
1350 – than was the population around 300 million
 the highest rates of growth (increases above 1.8% per year) were
30
seen briefly during the 1950s
 Birth rate in different countries

 the growth rate peaked at 2.2% in 1963, and declined to 1.1% by

2009
 annual births have reduced to 140 million since their peak at
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173 million in the late 1990s, and are expected to remain constant,
Population growth

 current projections show a continued increase of population (but a

steady decline in the population growth rate) with the population
expected to reach between 7.5 and 10.5 billion in the year 2050.
32
 it is universal right to have a family – many ethnic questions were
raised when state population policy
  world‟s population will increase from 7
billion in 2009 to 9,1 billion in 2050 Facts about
 differential growth rates are projected world population
between rich and poor countries
 high-income coutries are expected to be
in decline population period till 2050
 least developed countries are expected
to more than double population from
850 million in 2009 to 1.7 billion by
2050
 in rest developin world population will
increase from 4.5 to 6.1 billion in this
period
 higher income (global economic growth
is expected to be around 3%) means
33 more consumption
Distribution of
population
 population isn„t distributed
equally; there are two huge
diversities between
continents and available
space for settlements:
 littoralisation of population
 scarcity of basic resources
needed for existence
 demographic regimes show
us the negative correlation
between welfare and fertility
34
rates – vicious cycle
 Largest world cities

 population prefers the littoral settlement because of:

 economic development – trade (exchange of goods)
 geostrategic importance of the area
35  transportation capabilities of the area
Overpopulation
 overpopulation is a condition where an
organism's numbers exceed the carrying
capacity of its habitat. The term often
refers to the relationship between the
human population and its environment,
the Earth
 overpopulation does not depend only on
the size or density of the population, but
on the ratio of population to available • important factor is also
sustainable resources the rational use of
 it also depends on the way resources are available resources –
used and distributed throughout the important know-how
population. (who has it?)
36
 Countries by population density

 overpopulation can result from:

 an increase in births,
 a decline in mortality rates due to medical advances,
 from an increase in immigration, or
37  from an unsustainable biome and depletion of resources.
  it is possible for very sparsely
populated areas to be
overpopulated, as the area in
question may have a meager or
non-existent capability to sustain
human life (e.g. a desert).

there are some problems associated with human overpopulation:

inadequate fresh water for drinking water use as well as sewage
treatment and effluent discharge - some countries, like (Saudi
Arabia), use energy-expensive desalination
depletion of natural resources, especially fossil fuels – question of
energy needed for systems to work
38 changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global warming
  increased levels of air and water
pollution, soil contamination
and noise pollution – synergy of
different forms of pollution
may be dangerous – state
regulation and technological
can lead to a decline of
pollution, even as the
population continues to grow
 deforestation and loss of • irreversible loss of arable land
ecosystems that sustain global and increases in desertification -
atmospheric oxygen and carbon deforestation and desertification can
dioxide balance; about eight be reversed by adopting property
million hectares of forest are rights, and this policy is successful
lost each year even while the human population
39
continues to grow
Some more problems with overpopulation:
 mass species extinction – reduction of
habitat for other species = present
extinction rates may be as high as
140,000 species lost per year as of 2008
a total of 717 animal species having
gone extinct during recorded human
history
 high infant and child mortality – caused
by poverty
 intensive factory farming to support
large populations lead into the
evolution and spread of antibiotic
resistant bacteria diseases, excessive air
40
and water pollution, and new virus that
infect humans
And some more…
 increased chance of the emergence of new
epidemics and pandemics – because of
environmental and social reasons =
overcrowded living conditions, malnutrition
and inadequate, inaccessible, or non-existent
health care (the poor are more likely to be
exposed to infectious diseases)
 starvation and malnutrition or poor diet with
ill health and diet-deficiency diseases – rich
countries with high population densities do not
have famine
 Low life expectancy in countries with fastest
growing populations
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And more…  overpopulation may lead to poverty
coupled with inflation in some regions and
a resulting low level of capital formation –
bad government and bad economic policies
= not conditionally; some countries with
high population densities have eliminated
absolute poverty and keep their inflation
rates very low
 unhygienic living conditions for many based
upon water resource depletion, discharge of
raw sewage and solid waste disposal – this
problem can be reduced with the adoption
of sewers
 elevated crime rate due to drug cartels and
increased theft by people stealing resources
42
to survive
And this also…

 conflict over scarce resources

and crowding, leading to
increased levels of warfare
 less personal freedom /
more restrictive laws – laws regulate interactions between
humans. The higher the population density, the more frequent
such interactions become, and thus there develops a need for
more laws and/or more restrictive laws to regulate these
interactions. It is even speculated that democracy is threatened
due to overpopulation, and could give rise to totalitarian style
governments
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 Human population
control
 human population control is the
practice of artificially altering the rate
of growth of a human population
 implemented by limiting the
population's birth rate – achieved by
government mandate to fight:
 poverty,
 environmental concerns,
 overpopulation
 it must be dealt very carefully – not to
cause too much of mistreatment of
population - some programs may lead
44
into exploitation
DEMOGRAPHIC THEORIES
 malthusianism refers primarily to his 1798
writings, (An Essay on the Principle of
Population) – unchecked population growth
is exponential (1→2→4→8) while the
growth of the food supply was expected to
be arithmetical (1→2→3→4)
Thomas Malthus 1766 -
 Malthus believed that there were two types
1834
of "checks" which could then reduce the
final “check” would
population, returning it to a more
be Malthusian
sustainable level:
catastrophe which
 "preventive" checks such as birth control,
would return
abstinence, etc... and population to a
 "positive checks" which lead to premature lower more
45
death, such as disease, war... "sustainable" level.
DEMOGRAPHIC  Neo-Malthusianism generally refers
to people with the same basic
THEORIES concerns as Malthus who advocate
for population control programs to
ensure enough resources for current
and future populations
 in some cases this means a to favour
preventive birth control for any of a
number of reasons
 neo-Malthusians differ from Malthus'
theories mainly in their enthusiasm
for contraceptive techniques
 Malthus, as a devout Christian
believed that "self-control" or
abstinence were preferable to
46
“profesional pushers” artificial means of birth control
 however, Malthus did allow that self restraint was unlikely to be
effective on a wide scale, and therefore could countenance the use of
artificial means of birth control as a solution to population pressure
 the terms can carry a pejorative connotation indicating excessive
pessimism, inhumanity, or inaccurate understanding of the future –
but the population growth won‟t stop by itself (be careful on the
measures taken when speaking about population control)
 population control may use one or more of the following practices
although there are other methods as well:
 contraception – low support in religious circles
 abstinence – difficult to carry it out successfully
 medical abortion – numbers are growing but great ethical discussions
 emigration – depends on economical status and rule of law
 decreasing immigration – difficult when respecting human rights
 sterilization – impossible = voluntarily (case of Sweden)
 euthanasia – not acceptable for majority of states
RESOURCES – I.
 … have different qualities:
 historic (the role and importance of resources is constantly
changing)
 geographic (is based on the territorialization and accessability
– horisontal and vertical)
 social (depends on the relationship between the resource and
its influence on the society)
 there is linkage between
resources, economy and war
• resources represent starting
point for power
RESOURCES – II.
 when speaking about resources it‟s about:
 territorial control
 exploitation
 commercialization
 consumption
 the value of the resources exits only if all steps are
fulfilled…
 DIAMOND WARS – SIERRA LEONE

Source: Billon, Philippe Le (2008) 'Diamond Wars? Conflict Diamonds and Geographies of Resource Wars', Annals of
the Association of American Geographers, 98:2, 345 - 372
CONSUMPTION
OIL – MEANS OF ECONOMY
 OPEC will create over 1.000 billions $ = magic line never
crossed before (price $110/barrel )
 Saudi Arabia has to invest over $35 billions into national
economy in order to “survive” the internal turblences (price
mustn‟t fail under $83)
 Russia will earn in 2011 over $350 billions what represent
21% of GDP
 high oil prices doesn‟t enable the economic recovery of
developed states – dependable on the oil as source of energy