STRUCTURAL

SAFETY

Structural Safety 27 (2005) 284–285

www.elsevier.com/locate/strusafe

Book review

Robin K. McGuire, Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Earthquake Engineering Research
Institute, Oakland, CA, 2004, ISBN 0-943198-01-1

This book is the 10th in a series of monographs published by the Earthquake Engineering Re-
search Institute (EERI) that address seismicity and earthquake ground motions, dynamic re-
sponse of facilities to earthquakes, aseismic design and seismic protection systems. This
monograph, authored by a well-known consultant, surveys the rapidly maturing field of seismic
hazard and risk analysis and presents a framework for risk-informed decision-making, showing
how quantitative risk analysis provides structure to the process of evaluating demands imposed
by earthquakes.
The monograph is addressed to a structural engineering audience. The first two chapters lay the
groundwork for seismic risk assessment. Chapter 1 places seismic risk analysis in the context of
other commonplace risks and introduces ideas of uncertainty in decision-analysis and the role
of probability in modeling uncertainty. The fundamentals of risk assessment are covered in Chap-
ter 2, where the theorem of total probability is used, first to relate the seismic hazard (probability
that ground motion intensity exceeds a specified value) to earthquake occurrence and location,
magnitude, and attenuation from source to site, and second to evaluate building damage resulting
from that intensity. The author shows clearly how the key elements – seismicity, ground motion
models, site hazard, damage and risk fit together. There also is a concise description of aleatoric
(inherently random) and epistemic (knowledge-based) uncertainties and their role in hazard
assessment.
Chapters 3, 4 and 5 are more technically detailed. Seismicity and source modeling are covered
extensively in Chapter 3, along with a discussion of relations between various magnitude or inten-
sity scales and more recent measures such as stress drop and seismic moment, which can be related
to fault rupture area and displacement. Chapter 4 discusses the attenuation of ground motion
from source to site. Such attenuation models are essentially empirical in nature, although their
functional form often is suggested by geophysical concepts. The (conditional) coefficient of vari-
ation in such models (frequently on the order of 0.6–0.8), expressed as the standard error of the
nonlinear regression to determine the parameters, is a major contributor to the uncertainty in the
seismic hazard at a particular site. Using the tools developed in Chapters 3 and 4, the reader is
guided through a seismic hazard assessment for a site in Berkeley, CA in Chapter 5. A particularly
useful feature of this chapter is its explanation of the deaggregation process, showing how the con-
tributions of seismicity at various faults affect the overall seismic hazard at the site. Readers will

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2004.12.004
 Book review / Structural Safety 27 (2005) 284–285 285

find this discussion helpful in interpreting the site-dependent deaggregation plots presented by on
the US Geological Survey website. Finally, Chapter 6 integrates the results presented in the pre-
vious chapters, illustrating a damage assessment and seismic risk evaluation for two low-rise
buildings in Berkeley, CA. Both empirical models (in which damage, expressed as a percentage
of replacement cost, is related to MMI) and analytical models (in which damage is related to a
quantitative site intensity measure, such as spectral acceleration) are considered.
To a reader already familiar with the basic ideas of probabilistic risk assessment, this mono-
graph is a useful compilation of existing information on seismic hazard and risk assessment from
numerous resources into one accessible volume. The monograph should appeal to a broad read-
ership, since one need not be a specialist in structural reliability theory or probabilistic risk anal-
ysis to grasp the basics of the concepts presented. On the other hand, the author presumes
knowledge of concepts of probability and statistics that most engineers do not have, as well as
familiarity with seismology and facility response to earthquake ground motions. Its mathematical
treatment of some topics is terse, and readers or researchers who seek to replicate some of the re-
sults presented in the illustrations will find that there is insufficient information for them to do so.
On the other hand, there are several appendices that provide details of some of the mathematical
formulations. There is a comprehensive reference list, current through 2003, for further study.
Unfortunately, the references draw almost entirely from research aimed at seismic hazard and risk
in the Western United States, and contributions to the topic from sources in Western Europe and
the Asian-Pacific rim are lacking.
Despite these minor criticisms, the author has tied together the diverse elements of a risk assess-
ment – hazard identification, impact on civil infrastructure, and consequence evaluation (damage
and loss) – clearly and concisely. The monograph is sufficiently oriented toward fundamentals
rather than details that it is likely to enjoy an extended shelf life, as have other monographs in
the EERI series. Readers who are already familiar with the elements of probabilistic seismic risk
analysis will find this to be a highly readable and unifying treatment of the subject and will want
to add it to their reference libraries.

Bruce R. Ellingwood
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
790 Atlantic Drive, Atlanta
GA 30332-0355, USA
E-mail address: bruce.ellingwood@ce.gatech.edu