On a Method of Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Registration

Author(s): C. Chandra Sekar and W. Edwards Deming

Source: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 44, No. 245 (Mar., 1949), pp. 101-
115
Published by: American Statistical Association
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 ON A METHOD OF ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH
RATES AND THE EXTENT OF REGISTRATION
C. CHANDRA SE1KAR
All-India Instituteof Hygieneand Public Health,Calcutta
(on,loan to the Population Division of the UnitedNations)
AND
W. EDWARDS DEMING
Bureau oftheBudget,Washington
AMATHEMATICAL THEORY is presentedwhichwhenapplied to a com-
L parison of the registrar'slist of births and deaths with a list
obtained in a house-to-housecanvass, gives an estimate of the total
numberof events over an area in a specifiedperiod; also the extent
of registration.
In the developmentofthe theory,allowanceis made forthe factthat
the chance of an event being missed on one list (registrar'slist or the
house-to-housecanvass) may not be independentofits chance of being
missed on the otherlist. Where thereis likelyto be lack of independ-
ence, a test is suggestedand a methodintroducedto reducethe effect
of dependence. This is done by subdividingthe data into small ho-
mogeneousgroups,such as mightbe formedby small areas, sex and age
classes, domiciliaryand institutionalbirths; then by estimatingthe
numberof events in these groupsseparatelyand summingthemfora
total. The standard errorsof the estimatesare given.
The theoryis applied to an enquirythat was conductedin February
1947 over an area knownas the SingurHealth Centre,near Calcutta,
coveringthe years 1945 and 1946 separately,and it is foundthat the
estimatedtotalnumberofeventsforthearea is usuallygreaterwhenthe
estimateis built up by summingthe totals forindividualgroupsthan
whenit is computedat once forthe aggregatedpopulation.According
to the theorythis observationconfirmspositive dependence and in-
dicates that the greaterfigureis nearerthe truth.
The annual numberofbirthsand deathsin the SingurHealth Centre
(total population 64,000) is estimatedsubject to a standard errorof
from1 to 3 percent,and the registration is estimatedto varyfromabout
40 to 70 per cent with a standard errorof about 3 per cent. This
enquiryprovidesbasic groundworkforthe design of futuresurveys,
and it is estimatedthat at a cost of Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 15,000 (3 rupees
to the U.S. dollar) estimatesof birthand death ratesforan entireDis-
trictin India witha populationof one to two millionscan be obtained
withan overallstandarderrorof about 5 per cent.
101

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102 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 1949

Purpose.The purposehereis to presenta theoryby whichwhenvital

registration is incomplete,
an enquiryin theformofa house-to-house
canvassmaybe usedin conjunction withtheregistrar'slistto estimate,
i. the total numberof birthsand deathsin an area overa specified
in registration;
period;ii. thebirthand deathrates;iii. thedeficiencies
and iv. the standarderrorsof all theseestimates.The theorywill
firstbe presented, thenappliedto particularsurveysin the Singur
HealthCentre.
Methodofenquiry.The applicationofthetheorywhichis to be devel-
opedrequiresa comparison
oftheentrieson:
1. The registrar's
list (referredto as R)
2. The resultof a completehouse-to-house canvasscarried
out by an interviewer(referred of
to as I) and the classification
theentriesontheselistsintothefollowing fourexhaustivegroups:
C, the numberof entriesrecordedin I and also in R (such
entries,beingfoundon bothlists,are assumedto be correct
withoutinvestigation).
N1, entriesrecordedonlyin R but not in I, and afterin-
vestigation
foundto be correct.
N2, entriesrecordedonlyin I but not in R, and afterin-
vestigation
foundto be correct.
X, entriesrecorded
on onelistortheother,butnotboth,and
foundafterinvestigation
to be incorrect.
Thisis a completeclassification
oftheentrieson thelistsbutnotof
theevents.Therewillalso be a numberY ofeventswhichare missed
by bothlists;thisnumberwillbe estimatedlaterbyapplicationofthe
theory.
Theory.Let N be thetotalnumberofevents(birthsor deaths)in the
specified
period.Thenan estimateV ofN is furnished by theformula
I= C+Ni+N2+N1N2/C whereinN1N2/Cis an estimateofthenum-
ber ofeventsY missedby bothR and I. This formulaofestimation
assumesthatthe chanceofan eventbeingmissedon eitherlistis in-
dependentof the chanceof beingmissedon the other.A methodis
presented lateron forinvestigating the validityofthe assumption of
independence and forintroducing a modificationwherenecessary.
It can be shownthat:i. 1 is an unbiasedestimatein thelimitwhen
N becomeslargeand the assumption just mentionedis valid;ii. the

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 103
maximum estimateisequalto RV
likelihood inthelimit;iii. thestandard
The last formulawillbe developedin the
errorofN is N/Nqiq2/p`p2.~
appendix.Here,
Pi = thechanceofR detecting
an event
P2 = thechanceofI detecting
an event
Pi + qi = P2 + q2 = 1.

It follows thatthebettertheperformance in either

R orI, thehigher
be pi orP2, thesmallerbe q, orq2and themoreprecisebe theestimate
IVofthetotalofevents.It follows, moreover,thattheprecision ofN,
expressedas a proportion (namelyas a coefficientof variation),is
/Vq1q2/Np1p2, wherefore if the theorybe applied over an area large
enoughto containa largenumberN ofevents,thetotalnumberN of
eventswillbe estimatedwithgreatrelativeprecision.
The symbolpi is a measureof performance ofthe registrar,
an es-
timate for which is Pi = C/(C+N2). This estimate 1i of pi is subject
to a coefficient
ofvariationof
q/ N-C-N2
,
'(C + N2)p1 N-1

Thiserrordecreasesas C+N2 increases. Forperfectperformance onthe

partofthe interviewer, C+N2= N, and thereis thenno errorin es-
timatingthe performance ofthe registrar.
The foregoing development In practicethereare
is oversimplified.
someproblems to take accountof-incompleteinvestigation oftheR
lists; incompletecoverageof the populationin the house-to-house
canvass.Specialtypesof events,like thoseoccurring in institutions,
are best takencare of as a separategroup.Then again thereis the
problemof investigating the assumptionmentionedabove, and of
measuring and correctingforthecorrelationbetweenthechanceofan
eventbeingmissedby R and beingmissedby I. These pointswillbe
examinedin thefollowing paragraphs.
ofincomplete
Effect oftheregistrar's
investigation lists.In theinvestiga-
tionoftheR-liststheremay be someentriesleftoverunclassified by
reasonofincompleteness or simplefailureforany
ofentry,illegibility,
reasonwhatever onthepartoftheinvestigator to finishhisjob. So long
as the correctentriesamongstthe unclassifiedentrieson the R-list
constituteunbiasedsamplesfromthe two categoriesC and N1men-

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104 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 1949

tionedearlier,
theomissionoftheunclassified entriesfromthecalcula-
tionsdoesnotaffecttheestimation ofN, thetotalnumberofevents.
The estimateof the extentof registration will be too low if the un-
classified
entriescontain,as is likely,correctentriesclassifiable
as C.
If the unclassified
entriesare all countedas correct,contrary to fact,
the calculations
willlead to an overestimate oftheextentofregistra-
tion.
Effectof incompleteness
of coverageof the population. As in every
populationenquiry,therewill be somefailuresto elicitinformation
fromall the households.This willhappenwhensomehouseholdsin
whichan event took place have moved away temporarily or per-
manently, orwhenno responsiblepersoncan be foundat hometo give
theinformation.So longas theeventsin theuninterviewed portionof
householdsare includedin the R-listto the same extentas thosein
the interviewedhouseholds,the estimationof N is unaffected. The
calculationofN maytherefore be littleaffected
by incompleteness of
coverageofthepopulation.
The effectof institutionalevents.In rural areas the bulk of the births
are domiciliary, but thereare somesmallscatteredhospitalsdrawing
patientsfroma widearea,and a highproportion oftheeventsthattake
place in themare fornon-residents. The R-listmay containsomeor
even all of the entriesfor these institutional events because the
registraris ableto ascertain
thisinformation easilyandaccuratelyfrom
the institutions.The interviewer,on the otherhand,will,by the na-
tureofa house-to-house canvass,failto discoveran institutional
event
concerning peoplewho had no familyconnections in the area. In-
stitutionalevents,as they are accuratelyascertainable,are best
handledas a separateblockand notas a problemofestimation.
The effectof correlationbetweeneventsmissed on bothlists. The first
step is to definethis correlation. The registrar and his co-workers
willdetectsomeeventsand missothers.The probability thatthe in-
terviewer [I] willdetectan eventthatwas missedby R maybe differ-
entfromtheprobability thathe willdetectan eventthatwas recorded
byR. Ifthesetwoprobabilities areequalthereis complete
independence,
but otherwise thereis not,in whichcase theformulagivenabovefor
the estimationof the total numberof eventswill be incorrect. The
extentoftheerrorcanbe investigated. If as before,
pi= theprobability oftheregistrardetecting an event
q =the probability oftheregistrarmissingit

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 105
inthe4 groupswillbe shownbytheaccompany-
thentheprobabilities
ingtable,whichdefinesfournewprobabilities, P21,P22, Q21, Q22. p and
q are alwayscomplementary:P21+q21= P22+q22 = 1-

Group Probability

C Detectedby both PlP21

N1 Detected by registraronly pjq21
N2 Detectedby interviewer only q1p22
Y Missedby both qlqn

betweentheeventsmissedbyboth
independence
Ifthereis complete
R and I, then P21=P22=P2, introduced previously,and q21 = 22= q2.
Whenthereis dependencethe expectedvalue of the estimateof the
numberofeventsY missedbybothR and I willbe closeto
Nplq2lqlp22

PlP21

is
The difference
whereasthecorrectvalueis Nqiq22.

Nplq2lqlp22 (P22
-Nqlq22 = Nql -1j.
PIP21 P21 /

So if P21> pM, the total numberof eventsis underestimated and if

P21< P22, theconverse.We surmisethatP21> P22 is likelyto be thecase.
Similarly, the registrar's
in the case of dependance, performance is
estimated as instead of pi, the differencebeing
p1p21/(p1p21+qip22)
If P21>P22 the registrar'sperformanceis
(p21-p22)plql/(p1p21+qip22).
and ifp21< p22,theconverse.
overestimated
If
pi = .8 q,q=.2
P21 = .6 q21 = .4
P22 = .4 q22 = .6
ofthetotalnumberofeventswillbe
thebias in theestimation
1 p22\
ql -- 1 =-.067 or -6.7 percent.
T b P21
This bias may be much moreimportantthan the standarderrorof an

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106 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 19

estimateofthetotalnumberofeventsmadeundertheassumption
of
zero correlation.
Methodto reducetheeffect ofcorrelation.
It is important to notethat
correlation signifies
heterogeneityin thepopulationforit impliesthat
eventsthat fail to be detecteddo not forma randomsamplefrom
the wholepopulationof events.This heterogeneity may ariseonlyif
thereare differencesin thereporting ratesfordifferent
segments ofthe
population, in thegroupoffailures
resulting beingweighted dispropor-
tionatelyby thedifferent segments.
It therefore thatthecorrelation
follows canbe minimized bydividing
the populationinto homogeneous groupsand calculatingthe total
numberofeventsseparately foreach group;thenby additiongetting
the grandtotal. In orderto put thissuggestion intopractice,let us
considerthe difference betweentwo estimatesofthe totalnumberof
events:i. by dividingthe populationinto homogeneous groupsand
estimating theeventsin each groupseparately, thenforming a grand
total;ii. bytreatingtheentirepopulation as a unit.Let thepopulation
be comprisedof k homogeneous groups,withN, eventsin the i-th
group (i= 1, 2, * * *, k). Then let p1(i)be the probabilityof the regis-
trardetecting an eventin the i-thgroup,and p2(i) the corresponding
probability
forthe interviewer. The expectedvalue ofthe numberof
eventsmissedby bothin thei-thgroupis Niql0(ti and fortheentire
populationthetotalmissedby bothwillbe 2N,qj(i)q2(i). As by defini-
tionthereare onlyk homogeneous groups,thisvaluewillbe estimated
withoutbias whenthegroupsare treatedseparately.But iftheentire
populationofeventswerepooled,theexpectedvaluefortheestimate
ofthenumberofeventsmissedby bothwouldbe closeto
[ENip, (i)q2'(i][ Niql (')P2 (i)]

E2Nip,(i)P2(i)
in thetwovalueswillbe
The difference
[E Nip,(i)q2(i)] [ZENiqi(i)p2(i)] -
N2SlS2r
SNipi(i)P2(i) ,. - -Nqinq<)-S'p,(i)P2(i)-

where
A[pi (i) - pi1j2
S12 = -Ni -
Ni
ENi[P2( i)- P2]2
S2 2=

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 107

N= EZNs Pi N2 N -

and

S12 Ni
E [pIi(i) -1] [p2(i) -P2
r=~~ =
SAs2 Ss2 EN

is the correlation betweenp1ii)and p2(i),weightedby Ni,

coefficient
thenumberofeventsto whichtheyhavereference. If r> 0, thentreat-
ingthe entirepopulationas a unit,we are led to an underestimation
ofthenumberofeventsmissedby bothpartiesand therefore an un-
derestimation of the total numberof events.This also resultsin an
overestimate If thisis thecase,thepopu-
oftheextentofregistration.
lationneedbe dividedonlyto thestagewhenfurther divisionshowsno
increasein thetotalnumberofevents.It shouldbe possibleby actual
trialwithsomerealdata to decidewhether (e.g.,in computing number
ofdeaths)5-yearage groupsare a moreeffective subdivision than10-
year age groups;and whetherinfantdeathsshouldbe treatedsep-
arately.
The enquiryin SingurHealthCentre.The SingurHealth Centrecon-
sists of fourcontiguousUnion Boards,' viz., Singur,Balarambati,
Bora, and Begumpur,situatedin the Seramporesub-division of the
Hooghlydistrict. The villageSingurwhichservesas theheadquarters
is only21 milesaway fromCalcuttaand is easilyaccessibleby rail
fromCalcutta.The totalarea ofthe Centreis about33 squaremiles
and comprised of 68 villageswitha totalpopulationof about 64,000
distributedover12,000families livingin about8,300houses.As is usual
in WestBengal,thevillagers liveclosetogether in a compactblockand
widefieldsseparatesuchblocks.Since 1944thisarea has formedthe
controlledpracticefieldoftheAllIndiaInstitute ofHygieneandPublic
Health,Calcutta,fortheirexperiment in PublicHealthMethodology.
Procedureforregistration.
The procedure fortheregistrationofbirths
and deathsin thisarea followscloselythe methodadoptedin other
partsof Bengal.The Chowkidar, i.e., the villageheadman,is the re-
portingagentand is requiredto submitperiodically to the Sanitary
Inspector,2whois theregistrar ofthearea a listofbirthsand deaths.

1 The Bengal Province is divided into divisions,the divisionsinto districts,the districtsinto

subdivisions,the subdivisionsinto thanas,and the thanasinto UnionBoards.
'A SanitaryInspectoris usually in chargeof the healthactivitiesof a thana.

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108 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 1949

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 109
With a view to improvingthe registrationin this area, the voluntary
services of a villagerhave been enlisted.He is not only expected to
assist the Chowkidar,who may be illiterate,by making entriesin the
Chowkida's register,but also to informthe registrardirectlyon all
birthsand deaths in the village. The registraralso obtains a list of
births,raaternal and infant deaths as known to the Maternity and
Child WelfareDepartment,and by co-ordinatingthe information from
the threesourcesis expectedto improvebirthand death registration.
For all practical purposesthe voluntaryagency began operatingonly
fromJanuary1946.
Methodof enquiry.The enquiryin the Singur Centre covering1945
and 1946 was startedon the 17thFebruary1947. The fieldworklasted
foreleven weeks. In this enquiryan interviewercalled on everyhouse-
hold to enumeratethe residentpopulation (separatelyas presentand
absent) and visitors with particulars of community,age, sex, and
maritalstatus, and to list all birthsand deaths which occurredin the
village during1945 and 1946, listingseparatelywith relevantparticu-
lars those that occurredoutsidethe SingurHealth Centre.The lists so
preparedare the I-list which,as was mentionedearlier,were compared
with the registrationbooks (the R-list). In the field-organization as
actually employed,there were four investigatorswho worked at the
comparisonsand supervisedthe workofthe 16 interviewers. The inter-
viewers and the investigatorswere selected fromthe village popu-
lation as it was thoughtthat they would be able to obtain betterco-
operationthan an outsider.
It shouldbe emphasizedthatthecomparisonofthetwolistsis crucial.
The establishmentof the identityof two entries,one on one list and
one on the other,sometimesrequiresextremeperseverance.In some
cases the registrar'sentryis by hearsay,and part of it may be wrong,
and oftenmuch consultationis required.The interviewer'sentry,how-
ever,is fortunatelyaccompaniedby a house-numberor othermeans of
identification by whichthe information may be verifiedifnecessary.
Basic data obtainedfromtheenquiry.Table I showsthe resultsofthe
investigators'comparisonsof the R and I-lists. As mentionedearlier,
thereare some problemsarisingfromillegibleand incompleteentries,
the movementsof the population and institutionalbirths.The table
gives some idea of the magnitudeof these problems.For example the
non-verifiable entrieson the registrars'listsrunto roughly10% or more
of theirtotal entries.In view of theirmagnitudethe assumptionthat
the unverifiableentriesare a representativesample of all entries,an
assumptionthat will be made in the calculations,becomesall the more

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110 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 1949

important.The need ofmorecarefulregistrationin the futureis appar-

ent.
No separate account was maintained of the number of correctly
registeredevents occurringin familiesthat had migratedout of the
village priorto the interviewers'survey.The assumptionwill be made
that the registrarswould have recordedthis categoryto the same de-
gree as forthe non-migrants, but the numberis small and under the
conditionsofthe Indian village,thisassumptionis not important.
In this enquirythe non-residentinstitutionalbirthsand deaths are
consideredseparatelyand excludedfromthe table, as indicated. Insti-
tutional facilitiesexist only in the Singur Union Board. The number
of the institutionalbirthsto non-residentswas about 8% in 1945 and
1946. The number of institutionaldeaths of non-residentswas only
about 3%.
Estimationof total birthsand deaths. In order to investigate the
homogeneityof smallergroupscomprisingthe whole,so as to arriveat
the best estimate of the total number of events, calculations were
carriedout-
i. forthe Centreas a whole (birthsand deaths)
ii. foreach Union Board separately; then these figureswere
combined(birthsand deaths)
iii. formales and femalesseparatelyforthe Centreas a whole;
thenthesefigureswerecombined(deaths only)
iv. forage groupsby sex forthe Centre as a whole; then the
figureswerecombined(deaths only)
In 1945 the total numberof deaths as estimatedby thesefourmeth-
ods were 2234,2238,2245,and 2418 respectivelyeach with a standard
errorof approximately70. In 1946 the numberof deaths as estimated
bythefourmethodswere1,696,1,684,1,698and 1,765,each witha stand-
ard errorofapproximately40. The closenessofthe firstthreeestimates
indicatesthat the chancesofthe registrarand the interviewerdetecting
an event did not vary to any marked extent between Union Boards
and the sexes. The increaseobtainedby the fourthmethodclearlyindi-
cates that the chances of the interviewerand the registrardetectinga
death may differconsiderablywiththe age ofthe dead person.Positive
correlationis indicated.
Higher percentagesof deaths in the youngerage-groupsweremissed
by both R and I as comparedwith adult age groups. The proportion
missed also show a tendencyto increase in the more advanced age-
groups.It would be interesting to ascertainwhetherthe estimatecould
be increasedstill furtherby finersubdivisionof age groupsor by sub-

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 1ll

divisionin regardto other characteristicswithineach group, but no

furtheranalyseswereconducted.
As forbirths,the total numberestimatedfromthe data ofthe entire
Centre was 2908 for1945 and 3744 for 1946. Separate estimationfor
thefourUnion Boards whentotalledyields2915 and 3775 forthe same
years.It is to be notedthat whilethe latterfiguresare the higherofthe
two, the figurefor 1945 is higherby only 1/7thof the standard error
and the figurefor1946 is higherby a wholestandarderror.
The highestfigureobtained by breakingthe populationinto groups
in various ways, and adding the estimatednumberof events,is to be
accepted as nearest the true figure.The nonresidentinstitutional
events,whichwereleftout of considerationmay be added in to get the
total numberofeventsoccurringin the area.
Estimationof ratesand incompleteness For computing
of registration.
birthand death rates over an area, the populationbase is furnishedby
the house-to-housecanvass. The total numberof correctentriesin the
R-list judged against the total estimatednumberof events,measures
the extentof registration.Tables II and III show the resultsobtained
forratesand forcompletenessofregistration.

TABLE II
BIRTH AND DEATH RATES IN 1945 AND 1946, SINGUR HEALTH CENTRE

1945 1946

R Standard Standard
Rate err
error Rate ero
error

Birth rate per 1,000 population 46.1 0.8 59.8 1.0

Death rate per 1,000 population 37.7 1.2 27.5 0.7
Specificdeath rate (males) 36.4 1.6 27.3 1.0
Specificdeath rate (females) 39.2 2.1
2 27.8 1 1.0

TABLE III
PERCENTAGE OF BIRTH AND DEATH REGISTRATION DURING 1945 AND 1946

Birth registration Death registration

Union board
1945 1946 1945 1946

Singur 60.4-67.9 70.9-77.1 38.1-46.9 42.0-49.1

Balarambati 51.5-55.8 53.3-57.8 45.8-55.9 50.8-58.0
Bora 53.1-61.3 56.0-66.0 54.9-66.5 52.6-63.4
Begumpur 47.4-50.3 61.3-64.7 42.6-46.4 44.9-48.1

Note (1) The rangeis due to non-verified entrieson the R-list.

Note (2) The figuresare subject to a standarderrorof about 3 per cent.

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112 AMERICAN STATISTJCAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 1949

Onecomment maybemadeinregardtothebirthratefor1946,which
appearsto be veryhigh.Possibleexplanationmay be the improved
economicsituationafterthe famineof 1943,and demobilization. An-
otherpossibleexplanation is failureoftheinvestigatorto establishthe
identity ofentriesin theR and I lists,butifthiswereso, it shouldbe
moreapparentfor1945,whichit is not,as thebirthratesfor1945are
muchlower.An improbable explanationis thateach UnionBoard is
composedof extremelyheterogeneous sectionsdisplayingnegative
correlation betweenthe probabilities of detectionof eventsby the
Registrar andtheinterviewers.
Another comment shouldbe made.The completeness ofregistration,
recorded in Table III, is based on thenumberofcorrect entriesin the
R-listjudged againstthe estimatedtotal numberof events.Official
publishedratesin all countries arebased on thetotalnumberofregis-
trars'entries, correctplusincorrect, and theusual practiceofinflating
official
ratesto correct forincompleteness ofregistration
yieldsspurious
results:theratesare alreadypartlyinflated owingto incorrect entries.
Properinflation (correction ofrates)is possibleonlyby comparing the
registration listswiththe resultsof a populationsurveyand making
estimatesofthetotalnumberofeventsand theproportion ofincorrect
entriesin the registration lists.
The precisionof estimatednumberof events.From the fact that the
coefficientof variationof a total estimatednumberofevents is
it willbe seenthatthelowertheefficiency
V/q1q2/N.p1p2, ofdetection of
an eventon eitherthe I or R-lists(pi or p2), thegreaterthestandard
errorofthetotal.In thisenquiry, in spiteofthefactthatlocal people
werehiredand trainedespeciallyforthiswork,the efficiency of the
interviewingwas not ofhighorder:only67.2%0ofthe birthsin 1946
and 52.8% in 1946weredetectedbytheinterviewers. The correspond-
ingpercentages fordeathswere50.7 and 32.3. Methodsofimproving
the performance of the interviewers mustbe sought,and it appears
thattheintervaloftimeto be coveredby thesurveymustnotextend
toofarback.
It is highlyimportant to bearin mindthatregardless ofthe inter-
viewers'performance, the methodproposedhereforestimating the
totalnumberof,N, eventsis notsubjectto bias,3butpoorperformance
doesincreasetheerroroftheestimateofN. It also increases thestand-
arderroroftheestimateoftheregistrars' performance.
The coefficientofvariationis also influenced by N. It is important
to notethatN in theformula refersto anytotal-not just a totalover
a In maldngthisstatementthe case of p2 (or pi) =0 is consideredtrivialand is excluded.

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 113
an area, but a total forany subgroup,such as an age or sex classes for
whichan estimateis prepared.For the area and sex classes that were
used here,the standarderrorsof the estimatedtotals varied from1 to
10%. Over a larger area, or over broader classes, the coefficients of
variation would be reduced by the presenceof the factor-/N in the
denominator'.
Costs.A fewwordsregardingthe cost of thisparticularenquirymay
be helpfulin planningfutureenquiries.The cost of the field-work, in-
cluding salaries and overhead charges, amounted to Rs. 4,000. The
cost oftabulationand analysis amounted to Rs. 1,500. The total cost
was thus Rs. 5,500 or about 11 annas (2 U. S. cents) per capita in the
area ofenquiry.For variousreasons(thisbeinga pilotstudyand a com-
plete listingof the population being desirable for other reasons), the
entire population was covered withoutthe introductionof sampling.
In designingan enquiryfora largerarea such as a provinceor even a
district,samplingwouldbe used.
For each area in the sample therecan be calculatedthe total number
of events and the rate: also the efficiency
pi of the registrar'sperform-
ance. For each sample-area, supposedly completely canvassed (no
sub-sampling)therewill be an errorin estimatingeitherthe rate or the
registrar'sperformance.The coefficient of variationin the rate will be
the expressionalready given earlier, viz. v/qiq2/N pip2.Likewise, the
coefficientofvariationofthe estimateofpi, the registrar'sperformance,
is

V fq N-C-N2
(C+N2)pl N-1

Each symbolrefersto the particulararea covered.These errorsare not

erased by takinga completecanvass. (As a matteroffact,the particu-
lar enquirydescribedherewas a completecanvass, yet subject to these
errors.)
When samplingis introducedto study a whole District,the estima-
tion ofthe total numberof events,the rates,and the over-allefficiency
of registrationwill be made by combiningthe data froma numberof
sample-areas.An additionalerroris then introducedfor a Districtas a
whole because of variabilitybetweenthe sample areas. The variability
betweenthe rates of the individualsample-areasmay be much smaller
than the variabilitybetweentheirtotal events,as it is usually difficult
to definesample-areasof equal populations.It followsthat usually a
much smallersample will providea standard errorof (e.g.) 4 per cent

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 114 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, MARCH 1949

in an over-allratefora Districtthanis requiredto providethesame

precisioninthetotalnumberofevents.
The costofattaining(e.g.) a 4% errorofsampling willdependonthe
particulardesignofsamplethatis used;and thedesignin turnwill,for
greatesteconomy, dependon thedensityand distribution ofthepopu-
lation,on thevariability
ofthebirthand deathratesoverthearea for
whichestimatesare to be prepared, onthe costsofpurchasing or pre-
paringmaps and listsby whichthe samplingproceduremay be for-
mulated,on the qualityofpersonnel availableto carryout thework,
etc.
applicableto largepopulations,
As a generalprinciple, so faras the
errorsofsamplingare concerned, the total numberof cases (i.e., the
totalnumberofpeople,households, areas,orwhatever unitconstitutes
theelements ofsampling)to be includedin thesurveydependsalmost
entirelyon theprecision
ofsampling thatis desiredin theestimation of
thetotalnumberofevents,orin therate(whichever is theaim ofthe
survey)and hardlyat all on thetotalnumberofinhabitantsin thearea to
be covered.4
In India,the birthand deathratesshouldbe estimatedat leastby
theDistrict(roughly 1 to 2 millioninhabitants),
and forsmallerareas
if fundswould permit.Roughlyspeaking,to attain an over-all
standarderrorof5% (a reasonableaim forthe present),thecostofa
surveywillrunbetweenRs. 10,000and 15,000fora district.
provided.A survey of this type also provides5
Additionalinformation
valuableancillaryinformation regarding othercharacteristicsof the
populationsuch as size of family,age and sex distribution,marital
status,occupationand industry, rates,grossand net
specificfertility
reproductionrates,and otherinformation, but the list cannotbe ex-
becausetheinterest
tendedindefinitely ofthefieldworkers mustnotbe
toofarfromthemainaimsofthesurvey.
dissipated
APPENDIX

THE STANDARD ERROR OF N

valueforthestandarderrorofR.
Anapproximate
(C + N1)(C + N2)
N =
C
4 It is presumedin this statementthat the physicalfacilitiesforsampling(maps,lists,personnel,

payment,etc.) are about the samneover all partsof the area to be covered.
5 As a matterof fact,the surveysreportedhave providedmostof these additionalitems,and the

cost mentionedincludesthem.

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ESTIMATING BIRTH AND DEATH RATES 115
can be obtainedby the applicationofthe formulathatthe variance
Vf(x)ofa function
f(x) ofx is approximately
givenby
(Of)2

where( )E denotesthe substitution of the expectedvalues forx

appearinginsidethebracketafterdifferentiation,
and V(x) denotesthe
varianceofx.
If C+N1, C+N2 and N are fixed,it is knownthat the expected
valueE(C) andthevarianceV(C) ofC aregivenrespectively
by
E(C) = Nplp2
and
V(C) Nplqlp2q2
where
C + N1 C + N2
p =
N i P2 N and pi + q =p2 + q2=1.

Underthesameconditions,
thevarianceV(X) ofA is

V(N) = (C + N1)2(C + N2)2V(c)

whichbytheapplication
oftheformula
givenabovereducesto

Nqlq2
P1P2
The standarderrorofN is therefore

aprxia/Nqel2
V P1P2
approximately.

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