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Medfield Pharmaceuticals
Medfield Pharmaceuticals
ASSIGNMENT
CASE 4: MEDFIELD
PHARMACEUTICALS
Prepared By –
Sreya De (G19093)
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INDEX
1. Case Background…………………………………………………………………….Page 3
4. Summary………………………………………………… …………………………….Page 17
5. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………..Page 17
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Case Background
Set in the year 2010, this case talks about a pharmaceutical company called Medfield
Pharmaceuticals and a major strategic dilemma faced by its CEO and founder, Susan Johnson.
Fleximat, Medfield’s star product, that earned the highest revenue of its sales, was nearing the end
of its patent life. This would drastically affect Medfield’s future cashflows. In this scenario, Susan
received the offer to sell the company for $750 million.
Although the company had experienced excellent growth over the years with total sales amounting
to $329 million, given the scenario of the 2009 drug market with high drug developing costs, few
patents to be found, lesser breakthroughs to be seen, Susan was in a fix whether to accept the offer
of $750 million or not.
Let us now analyze the different case alternatives and critical financial decisions, that she might
have thought about.
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Critical Financial Problems Identified in the Case
5 critical problems identified in the case –
1) Whether Susan should go ahead with extension of the patent life of
Medfield’s flagship product, Fleximat or exit the business by selling off the
company for $750 million?
After analyzing the case, we came to know that the patent life for Fleximat, which was the
flagship product of Midfield Pharmaceuticals was going to expire in a period of 2 years.
As the pharmaceutical industry has a very diverse and competitive environment, decisions
need to be taken fast as to whether Susan should go ahead with extension of the patent life
for Medfield’s flagship product or exit the business on a high note.
As per the analysis made, if Susan continues to not change anything and run the company
as is based on the forecast provided by her internal department, we see that the net present
value for her enterprise comes out to be around $439.07 dollars. On the other hand, if Susan
continues to take and extend Fleximat’s life through reformulations, the net present value
comes out to be around $484.77 million. And lastly, if the company decides to continue
with all products reformulated, the net present value comes out to be around $316.61
million. Therefore, it would be good enough to sell off the company for $750 million.
The forecast that Susan asked from her department to take the most important decision for
her company was quite good enough. The factors like direct cost of sales, direct marketing
costs, general and administrative expenses, capital expenditures etc. have been very
practically judged and were assigned realistic figures for the same. Also, the initial sales
value for Reximet which was the newly approved product was assigned a decent sales
figure of $80 million to project precise forecasting and financials of the company.
The pharmaceutical industry has the power to generate billions of dollars in revenues.
Afterall, it is directly related to the healthcare industry. In the United States, it was the most
profitable industry from 1995 to 2002 and drug manufacturers had profits at par with their
expectations. Most of these revenues were generated through drugs for various ailments
which protected by patents. A lot of factors came into play at a later stage in the first decade
of the 21st century. These factors were the economic downturn, healthcare reforms and
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patent expiry for various drugs. It was becoming quite difficult to generate new drugs and
the best way for survival of the pharmaceutical industry was through reformulations.
However, in our opinion, pharmaceutical industry had a lot of scope for a company to stay
comfortably profitable. With new ailments and discoveries made everyday, the company
should be on the lookout to invest money intelligently. It would be flawed to assume that
the pharmaceutical industry is dead. In line with new ways of treatment and diseases on
the rise due to various factors like diet, environment etc, the company was capable enough
to generate new products and earn revenue in the form of patent protection, larger sales etc.
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Analysis and Interpretations for Solving the Case
In the given situation, Susan Johnson has the following options for analyzing the buyout offer of
$ 750 million:
1. Comparison of the offer with the Net Present Value of the company’s cash flows without
making any changes to the existing product line and life of any product.
a. Fleximat
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fleximat
% change 2.00% 2.00% -50.00% -50.00% -50.00%
Sales 210.56 214.77 219.07 109.53 54.77 27.38
Cost of Sales 47.46 49.4 50.39 25.20 12.60 6.30
b. Lodamadal
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Lodamadal
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -50.00% -50.00% -50.00%
Sales 39.67 40.46 41.27 42.10 42.94 43.80 21.90 10.95 5.47
Cost of Sales 10.55 9.31 9.49 9.68 9.88 10.07 5.04 2.52 1.26
c. Orsamorph
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Orsamorph
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 78.97 80.55 82.16 83.80 85.48 87.19 88.93 90.71 92.53 94.38
Cost of Sales 18.46 18.53 18.90 19.27 19.66 20.05 20.45 20.86 21.28 21.71
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d. Reximet
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Reximet
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 80 81.60 83.23 84.90 86.59 88.33 90.09 91.89
Cost of Sales 18.46 18.77 19.14 19.53 19.92 20.32 20.72 21.14
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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Sales 188.09 186.27 190.00 193.80 197.67 201.63 205.66 155.59
Cost of Sales 43.26 42.84 43.70 44.57 45.46 46.37 47.30 35.79
Research 35.74 35.39 36.10 36.82 37.56 38.31 39.08 29.56
Direct Marketing 50.79 50.29 51.30 52.33 53.37 54.44 55.53 42.01
General & Administrative 7.52 7.45 7.60 7.75 7.91 8.07 8.23 6.22
PBT 50.79 50.29 51.30 52.33 53.37 54.44 55.53 42.01
Taxes 16.25 16.09 16.42 16.74 17.08 17.42 17.77 13.44
NOPAT 34.53 34.20 34.88 35.58 36.29 37.02 37.76 28.57
NPV 16.57 15.13 14.22 13.37 12.57 11.81 11.11 7.74
2034
Total Sales 14.57
Cost of Sales 3.35
Research 2.77
Direct Marketing 3.93
General & Administrative 0.58
PBT 3.93
Taxes 1.26
NOPAT 2.67
NPV 0.35
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2. Comparison of the offer with the Net Present Value of the company’s cash flows if
Fleximat is sold as a generic drug after the patent period is over.
Sale of Fleximat:
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Total Sales 233.80 231.91 230.08 233.81 237.61 241.49 245.44
Cost of Sales 53.77 53.34 52.92 53.78 54.65 55.54 56.45
Research 44.42 44.06 43.72 44.42 45.15 45.88 46.63
Direct Marketing 63.13 62.61 62.12 63.13 64.15 65.20 66.27
General & Administrative 9.35 9.28 9.20 9.35 9.50 9.66 9.82
PBT 63.12633 62.61492 62.12285 63.12872 64.1547 65.2012 66.26863
Taxes 20.20 20.04 19.88 20.20 20.53 20.86 21.21
NOPAT 42.9259 42.57815 42.24354 42.92753 43.6252 44.33682 45.06267
NPV 22.35 20.43 18.68 17.50 16.39 15.35 14.38
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Net Present Value (Generic Fleximat) $ 484.77 M
3. Comparison of the offer with the Net Present Value of the company’s cash flows if
Fleximat is reformulated.
Sale of Fleximat:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fleximat
% change 2.00% 2.00% -50.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 210.56 214.77 219.07 109.53 111.72 113.96 116.24 118.56
Cost of Sales 47.46 49.4 50.39 25.20 25.70 26.21 26.73 27.27
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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Sales 309.03 309.62 315.82 322.13 261.84 233.71 221.70 155.59
Cost of Sales 71.08 71.21 72.64 74.09 60.22 53.75 50.99 35.79
Reformulation Costs
Marketing Costs
Research 58.72 58.83 60.01 61.21 49.75 44.40 42.12 29.56
Direct Marketing 83.44 83.60 85.27 86.98 70.70 63.10 59.86 42.01
General & Administrative 12.36 12.38 12.63 12.89 10.47 9.35 8.87 6.22
PBT 83.44 83.60 85.27 86.98 70.70 63.10 59.86 42.01
Taxes 26.70 26.75 27.29 27.83 22.62 20.19 19.15 13.44
NOPAT 56.74 56.85 57.98 59.14 48.07 42.91 40.70 28.57
NPV 27.23 25.14 23.64 22.22 16.65 13.69 11.97 7.74
2033 2034
Total Sales 29.14 14.57
Cost of Sales 6.70 3.35
Reformulation Costs
Marketing Costs
Research 5.54 2.77
Direct Marketing 7.87 3.93
General & Administrative 1.17 0.58
PBT 7.87 3.93
Taxes 2.52 1.26
NOPAT 5.35 2.67
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NPV 0.76 0.35
4. Comparison of the offer with the Net Present Value of the company’s cash flows if all the
drugs are reformulated.
Fleximat:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fleximat
% change 2.00% 2.00% -50.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 210.56 214.77 219.07 109.53 111.72 113.96 116.24 118.56
Cost of Sales 47.46 49.40 50.39 25.19 25.70 26.21 26.73 27.27
Lodamadal:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Lodamadal
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -50.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 39.67 40.46 41.27 42.10 42.94 43.80 21.90 22.34 22.78
Cost of Sales 10.55 9.31 9.49 9.68 9.88 10.07 5.04 5.14 5.24
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Orsamorph:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Orsamorph
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 78.97 80.55 82.16 83.80 85.48 87.19 88.93 90.71 92.53 94.38
Cost of Sales 18.46 18.53 18.90 19.27 19.66 20.05 20.45 20.86 21.28 21.71
Reximet:
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reximet
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 80 81.60 83.23 84.90 86.59 88.33 90.09 91.89 93.73
Cost of Sales 18.46 18.77 19.14 19.53 19.92 20.32 20.72 21.14 21.56
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2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Reximet
% change 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% -50.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Sales 112.02 114.26 116.54 58.27 59.44 60.63
Cost of Sales 25.76 26.28 26.81 13.40 13.67 13.94
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2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Total Sales 165.11 165.08 165.11 168.41 171.78 175.22 118.12
Cost of Sales 37.98 37.97 37.98 38.74 39.51 40.30 27.17
Reformulation Costs 35.00 35.00
Marketing Costs 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
Research 31.37 31.37 31.37 32.00 32.64 33.29 22.44
Direct Marketing 44.58 44.57 44.58 45.47 46.38 47.31 31.89
General & Administrative 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.74 6.87 7.01 4.72
PBT 19.58 19.57 44.58 45.47 -13.62 -12.69 6.89
Taxes 6.27 6.26 14.27 14.55 -4.36 -4.06 2.21
NOPAT 13.32 13.31 30.31 30.92 -9.26 -8.63 4.69
NPV 3.33 3.06 6.43 6.05 -1.67 -1.43 0.72
2033 2034
Total Sales 120.48 91.15
Cost of Sales 27.71 20.96
Reformulation Costs
Marketing Costs 25.00 25.00
Research 22.89 17.32
Direct Marketing 32.53 24.61
General & Administrative 4.82 3.65
PBT 7.53 -0.39
Taxes 2.41 -0.12
NOPAT 5.12 -0.27
NPV 0.72 -0.03
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Summary:
After, calculating total cash flows for all the products of Medifield, for all possible scenarios, we
discounted the cash flows of all the respective years at the rate of 8.5% and calculated the
cumulative cash flow for the time period till which Reximet’s patent life prevails. Through these
parameters we were able to calculate the corresponding NPVs and compare with Medifield’s buy
out value of $750 million.
1. Current Scenario: Without any modifications to the current scenario, the NPV comes out
to be $439.07 million.
2. Manufacturing the generic form of Fleximat in-house: NPV comes out to be $484.77
miillion.
3. Reformulating Fleximat: NPV comes out to be $424.33 million.
4. Reformulating all the drugs: NPV comes out to be $ 316.61 million.
5. Making the generic form of all the drugs in-house: We won’t be able to calculate the total
NPV of Medifield, as the duration till which all the drugs will be in the market would be
difficult to estimate.
Since the highest possible NPV comes out to be $ 484.77 million, which is considerably less than
the buyout value of $750 million, Susan should accept the buyout offer and sell off Medifield
Pharmaceuticals. However, she should also ensure that the company’s values and culture, of
bettering lives through medicine, are not lost.
Conclusion:
We therefore recommend that Susan Johnson should sell-off Medifield
Pharmaceuticals for $750 million.
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