Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019

September 18th 2019, 1am Pacific time

% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.

Atlantic 32.8 42.6 10.0 11.2 - 2.8
Quebec 21.9 37.6 7.9 8.3 20.0 3.2
Ontario 33.7 39.7 13.4 9.9 - 2.7
Prairies 48.2 25.1 14.3 8.5 - 2.5
Alberta 59.3 19.2 10.2 6.8 - 3.3
BC 35.1 29.4 16.3 15.2 - 2.4
Canada* 35.4 34.5 12.0 10.0 4.2 2.8

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 25 0 0 0
Quebec 13 53 1 0 11 0
Ontario 39 73 9 0 0
Prairies 21 6 1 0 0
Alberta 33 0 1 0 0
BC 23 9 5 4 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 136 169 17 4 11 0 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.

Avalon 31% 48% 8% 10% 3%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 25% 67% 0% 9% 2%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 32% 59% 0% 9% 3%
NFL

Labrador 29% 57% 7% 8% 3%

Long Range Mountains 27% 59% 4% 11% 2%
St. John's East 23% 34% 34% 10% 3%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 20% 45% 26% 9% 3%
Cardigan 31% 51% 4% 15% 3%
Charlottetown 30% 42% 15% 14% 3%
PEI
PEI Egmont 44% 34% 11% 11% 3%
Malpeque 32% 47% 4% 17% 3%
Cape Breton--Canso 31% 57% 1% 11% 3%
Central Nova 41% 44% 3% 12% 3%
Cumberland--Colchester 40% 48% 0% 11% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 29% 44% 16% 12% 3%
Halifax 25% 38% 25% 12% 3%
NS

Halifax West 30% 54% 4% 12% 3%

Kings--Hants 33% 56% 0% 11% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 31% 34% 24% 11% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 37% 42% 9% 11% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 27% 56% 6% 11% 3%
West Nova 40% 48% 0% 12% 4%
Acadie--Bathurst 24% 37% 28% 11% 3%
Beauséjour 26% 54% 8% 12% 2%
Fredericton 43% 34% 2% 21% 3%
Fundy Royal 52% 26% 10% 12% 4%
Madawaska--Restigouche 32% 41% 17% 10% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 49% 32% 8% 11% 4%

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 36% 43% 9% 13% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 53% 29% 5% 13% 4%
Saint John--Rothesay 45% 34% 10% 11% 4%
Tobique--Mactaquac 51% 32% 4% 13% 4%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 16% 36% 16% 9% 20% 3%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 13% 34% 22% 8% 21% 3%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 13% 49% 13% 8% 14% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 18% 49% 3% 8% 20% 3%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 17% 46% 6% 8% 19% 3%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 13% 46% 7% 8% 24% 3%
Beauce 32% 22% 0% 7% 8% 31%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
37% 28% 4% 8% 19% 4%
Beauport--Limoilou 36% 28% 6% 9% 16% 5%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 17% 26% 4% 8% 41% 3%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 52% 22% 0% 9% 12% 5%
 Beloeil--Chambly 15% 32% 12% 8% 29% 3%
Berthier--Maskinongé 16% 23% 23% 8% 27% 3%
Bourassa 15% 56% 0% 8% 18% 3%
Brome--Missisquoi 17% 46% 6% 9% 19% 3%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 18% 52% 7% 8% 12% 3%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 47% 26% 1% 8% 14% 5%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 17% 41% 6% 8% 25% 3%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 46% 32% 0% 8% 11% 3%
Compton--Stanstead 18% 39% 9% 8% 22% 3%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 16% 55% 7% 8% 11% 2%
Drummond 23% 29% 11% 9% 24% 3%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 12% 40% 18% 7% 21% 2%
Gatineau 14% 57% 8% 8% 10% 2%
Hochelaga 13% 33% 13% 10% 29% 3%
Honoré-Mercier 18% 58% 0% 8% 14% 3%
Hull--Aylmer 14% 55% 13% 8% 8% 2%
Joliette 17% 32% 4% 9% 35% 3%
Jonquière 23% 32% 8% 8% 25% 3%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 14% 31% 10% 8% 34% 3%
La Prairie 18% 39% 5% 8% 27% 3%
Lac-Saint-Jean 33% 26% 9% 8% 19% 4%
Lac-Saint-Louis 22% 63% 0% 9% 4% 3%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 13% 44% 14% 9% 18% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 16% 36% 5% 8% 32% 3%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 11% 26% 20% 10% 30% 4%
Laval--Les Îles 24% 51% 0% 8% 14% 3%
Lévis--Lotbinière 52% 23% 0% 8% 12% 5%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 16% 38% 7% 9% 28% 3%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 15% 33% 12% 9% 29% 3%

Louis-Hébert 33% 37% 1% 9% 16% 4%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 53% 23% 0% 8% 11% 5%
Manicouagan 16% 32% 0% 8% 41% 3%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 18% 45% 2% 8% 23% 3%
Mégantic--L'Érable 41% 31% 3% 8% 14% 4%
Mirabel 17% 29% 9% 9% 33% 3%
Montarville 17% 35% 7% 8% 29% 4%
Montcalm 16% 31% 2% 8% 39% 3%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
33% 30% 10% 8% 17% 4%
Mount Royal 38% 48% 0% 7% 3% 4%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 19% 58% 7% 9% 4% 2%
Outremont 16% 36% 25% 10% 10% 3%
Papineau 11% 55% 9% 9% 13% 2%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 16% 30% 7% 15% 29% 3%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 24% 59% 2% 7% 5% 3%
Pontiac 20% 58% 4% 8% 8% 3%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 49% 24% 3% 8% 12% 5%
Québec 28% 31% 8% 9% 20% 4%
Repentigny 18% 31% 2% 9% 37% 3%
Richmond--Arthabaska 36% 27% 6% 8% 19% 4%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
13% 30% 27% 8% 20% 3%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 17% 36% 8% 8% 27% 3%
Rivière-du-Nord 15% 30% 9% 9% 34% 3%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 11% 23% 31% 9% 22% 3%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 23% 30% 10% 9% 26% 3%
Saint-Jean 17% 35% 11% 8% 26% 3%
Saint-Laurent 23% 60% 0% 8% 6% 3%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 17% 65% 0% 8% 8% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 22% 44% 3% 8% 21% 3%
Salaberry--Suroît 16% 32% 11% 8% 30% 3%
Shefford 18% 41% 6% 9% 23% 3%
Sherbrooke 16% 33% 18% 8% 22% 3%
Terrebonne 18% 31% 4% 8% 35% 3%
Thérèse-De Blainville 19% 36% 4% 9% 29% 4%
Trois-Rivières 24% 33% 12% 8% 19% 4%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 19% 49% 5% 8% 16% 3%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 17% 51% 9% 11% 10% 2%
Vimy 20% 50% 0% 9% 18% 3%
Ajax 33% 51% 5% 9% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 24% 29% 36% 8% 3%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 44% 43% 3% 8% 3%
Barrie--Innisfil 45% 31% 9% 12% 3%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 40% 36% 7% 13% 3%
Bay of Quinte 33% 45% 9% 10% 2%
Beaches--East York 16% 45% 27% 10% 2%
Brampton Centre 33% 44% 12% 8% 2%
Brampton East 23% 48% 20% 7% 2%
Brampton North 32% 44% 14% 8% 2%
Brampton South 34% 48% 8% 8% 2%
Brampton West 29% 51% 10% 7% 2%
Brantford--Brant 40% 26% 21% 9% 4%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 42% 35% 9% 12% 3%
Burlington 40% 40% 6% 10% 2%
Cambridge 37% 38% 11% 11% 2%
Carleton 45% 38% 3% 12% 3%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 38% 35% 17% 7% 3%
Davenport 10% 40% 37% 11% 2%
Don Valley East 28% 53% 7% 10% 2%
Don Valley North 36% 46% 5% 10% 2%
Don Valley West 36% 49% 3% 9% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 42% 35% 5% 16% 3%
Durham 43% 30% 13% 10% 3%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 44% 3% 9% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 49% 28% 13% 7% 3%
Essex 36% 17% 38% 6% 3%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 48% 5% 9% 2%
Etobicoke North 22% 58% 9% 9% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 49% 8% 10% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 42% 34% 11% 10% 3%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 35% 48% 5% 10% 3%
Guelph 25% 44% 9% 19% 3%
Haldimand--Norfolk 45% 34% 11% 8% 3%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 43% 26% 16% 12% 3%
 Hamilton Centre 15% 31% 39% 12% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 24% 34% 29% 9% 3%
Hamilton Mountain 25% 29% 32% 9% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 31% 43% 13% 11% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 40% 37% 10% 11% 3%
Humber River--Black Creek 19% 62% 8% 9% 2%
Huron--Bruce 43% 34% 10% 10% 3%
Kanata--Carleton 37% 45% 4% 11% 2%
Kenora 28% 31% 31% 7% 3%
Kingston and the Islands 22% 50% 14% 12% 3%
King--Vaughan 43% 43% 4% 8% 3%
Kitchener Centre 29% 43% 14% 11% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 35% 37% 13% 12% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 37% 7% 11% 4%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 47% 27% 15% 8% 3%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 46% 28% 11% 11% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau45%
Lakes 35% 6% 11% 3%
London North Centre 31% 47% 12% 8% 2%
London West 35% 43% 12% 7% 4%
London--Fanshawe 29% 30% 31% 8% 3%
Markham--Stouffville 41% 44% 3% 9% 2%
Markham--Thornhill 31% 51% 8% 8% 2%
Markham--Unionville 48% 38% 2% 9% 3%
Milton 43% 35% 8% 10% 4%
Mississauga Centre 32% 50% 7% 8% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 34% 50% 6% 7% 2%

Mississauga--Erin Mills 38% 45% 7% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 40% 43% 5% 8% 3%
Mississauga--Malton 26% 55% 10% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 39% 44% 6% 8% 2%
Nepean 35% 47% 5% 11% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 42% 41% 6% 10% 3%
Niagara Centre 29% 31% 28% 9% 3%
Niagara Falls 38% 31% 18% 10% 3%
Niagara West 49% 29% 8% 10% 4%
Nickel Belt 16% 38% 35% 8% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 47% 13% 8% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 38% 37% 12% 11% 3%
Oakville 40% 44% 3% 10% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 41% 41% 5% 10% 4%
Orléans 29% 53% 5% 11% 2%
Oshawa 37% 22% 28% 10% 3%
Ottawa Centre 14% 37% 35% 12% 3%
Ottawa South 23% 54% 9% 12% 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean 29% 50% 7% 12% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 51% 16% 12% 3%
Oxford 46% 29% 14% 8% 3%
Parkdale--High Park 12% 37% 36% 11% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 40% 36% 7% 14% 3%
Perth--Wellington 42% 32% 12% 11% 3%
Peterborough--Kawartha 34% 38% 16% 10% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 37% 45% 6% 9% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 49% 30% 7% 11% 3%
Richmond Hill 42% 42% 5% 9% 3%
Sarnia--Lambton 38% 24% 28% 7% 3%
Sault Ste. Marie 31% 40% 19% 8% 3%
Scarborough Centre 31% 45% 8% 10% 5%
Scarborough North 26% 43% 18% 9% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 20% 47% 20% 10% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 47% 4% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 26% 55% 8% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 26% 55% 7% 10% 2%
Simcoe North 43% 34% 8% 13% 3%
Simcoe--Grey 45% 33% 7% 12% 3%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 50% 24% 10% 2%
St. Catharines 36% 39% 13% 9% 3%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 46% 35% 6% 11% 3%
Sudbury 21% 43% 25% 9% 2%
 Thornhill 57% 29% 3% 7% 4%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 21% 39% 27% 11% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 17% 41% 20% 20% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 20% 30% 39% 8% 3%
Toronto Centre 12% 53% 23% 10% 2%
Toronto--Danforth 10% 38% 37% 13% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 26% 50% 11% 11% 2%
University--Rosedale 17% 45% 25% 11% 3%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 42% 44% 2% 7% 4%
Waterloo 31% 44% 12% 11% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 49% 31% 6% 12% 3%
Whitby 41% 40% 7% 9% 3%
Willowdale 36% 48% 4% 10% 2%
Windsor West 21% 22% 48% 7% 3%
Windsor--Tecumseh 27% 23% 41% 6% 3%
York Centre 42% 42% 4% 10% 2%
York South--Weston 18% 41% 26% 10% 5%
York--Simcoe 49% 32% 6% 11% 3%
Brandon--Souris 59% 27% 0% 12% 2%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
46% 41% 2% 10% 2%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 18% 32% 40% 7% 2%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 60% 20% 7% 10% 3%
Elmwood--Transcona 41% 17% 30% 9% 2%
Kildonan--St. Paul 48% 34% 8% 7% 2%
Portage--Lisgar 72% 15% 0% 10% 3%
Man.

Provencher 64% 24% 0% 10% 2%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 35% 47% 6% 9% 2%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 62% 21% 6% 9% 3%
Winnipeg Centre 20% 44% 23% 11% 2%
Winnipeg North 22% 58% 9% 9% 2%
Winnipeg South 41% 47% 1% 9% 2%
Winnipeg South Centre 35% 49% 5% 10% 2%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 67% 9% 14% 7% 3%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 72% 8% 10% 8% 3%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 35% 26% 30% 6% 2%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 69% 7% 15% 7% 3%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 60% 11% 19% 7% 3%
Prince Albert 55% 12% 24% 7% 2%
Regina--Lewvan 39% 20% 31% 8% 2%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 48% 15% 26% 9% 2%

Regina--Wascana 33% 48% 8% 8% 2%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 45% 18% 26% 8% 2%
Saskatoon--University 45% 17% 27% 8% 2%
Saskatoon West 37% 17% 36% 8% 2%
Souris--Moose Mountain 74% 6% 10% 7% 3%
Yorkton--Melville 64% 10% 16% 7% 3%
Banff--Airdrie 63% 22% 5% 7% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 79% 6% 6% 7% 3%
Bow River 78% 10% 4% 5% 3%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 45% 40% 4% 8% 3%
Calgary Confederation 46% 37% 6% 9% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 48% 30% 8% 9% 5%
Calgary Heritage 63% 20% 6% 8% 3%
Calgary Midnapore 66% 16% 6% 8% 3%
Calgary Nose Hill 60% 21% 7% 8% 4%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 60% 25% 4% 8% 3%
Calgary Shepard 65% 18% 5% 8% 3%
Calgary Signal Hill 60% 24% 4% 8% 4%
Calgary Skyview 41% 41% 7% 8% 3%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 36% 32% 23% 6% 3%
Edmonton Griesbach 41% 16% 33% 6% 4%
Edmonton Manning 47% 22% 22% 6% 3%
Edmonton Mill Woods 42% 36% 12% 6% 4%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 51% 24% 16% 6% 4%

Edmonton Strathcona 34% 16% 39% 6% 4%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 50% 29% 12% 5% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 65% 17% 8% 6% 4%
Foothills 75% 10% 5% 7% 3%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 60% 24% 6% 5% 4%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 72% 11% 7% 7% 4%
Lakeland 72% 10% 9% 6% 4%
Lethbridge 57% 15% 19% 6% 3%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 69% 14% 8% 6% 3%
Peace River--Westlock 68% 9% 13% 6% 4%
Red Deer--Mountain View 74% 10% 7% 6% 3%
Red Deer--Lacombe 70% 11% 10% 6% 3%
St. Albert--Edmonton 56% 23% 12% 6% 3%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 66% 15% 9% 6% 4%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 70% 12% 9% 7% 3%
Yellowhead 71% 10% 8% 6% 4%
Abbotsford 54% 27% 5% 11% 2%
Burnaby North--Seymour 35% 30% 20% 13% 3%
Burnaby South 28% 23% 31% 10% 8%
Cariboo--Prince George 44% 27% 18% 10% 2%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 46% 32% 11% 10% 2%
Chilliwack--Hope 48% 28% 10% 11% 3%
Cloverdale--Langley City 42% 39% 6% 12% 2%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 39% 28% 18% 11% 4%
Courtenay--Alberni 35% 18% 25% 20% 2%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 30% 20% 23% 25% 2%
Delta 40% 43% 5% 11% 2%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 24% 23% 23% 28% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 36% 40% 12% 10% 2%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 42% 25% 21% 10% 2%
Kelowna--Lake Country 46% 40% 6% 6% 2%
Kootenay--Columbia 44% 15% 26% 13% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 50% 32% 3% 12% 3%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 42% 32% 13% 11% 2%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 29% 14% 18% 37% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 28% 24% 31% 13% 5%
North Island--Powell River 33% 21% 27% 17% 2%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 45% 24% 17% 11% 2%

BC North Vancouver 33% 49% 0% 15% 2%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 39% 27% 20% 12% 2%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 37% 26% 24% 11% 2%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
59% 19% 7% 11% 4%
Richmond Centre 51% 35% 2% 10% 2%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 25% 12% 0% 61% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 34% 15% 37% 11% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 37% 24% 26% 11% 2%
South Surrey--White Rock 48% 37% 0% 11% 3%
Steveston--Richmond East 45% 39% 2% 11% 3%
Surrey Centre 27% 39% 20% 11% 2%
Surrey--Newton 22% 50% 16% 10% 2%
Vancouver Centre 20% 52% 12% 13% 3%
Vancouver East 15% 27% 38% 18% 2%
Vancouver Granville 19% 29% 8% 10% 2% 33%
Vancouver Kingsway 26% 26% 34% 11% 3%
Vancouver Quadra 29% 55% 2% 12% 2%
Vancouver South 37% 45% 6% 10% 2%
Victoria 19% 23% 20% 36% 2%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky33%
Country49% 0% 16% 2%
Yukon 28% 49% 12% 9% 3%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 22% 44% 21% 10% 3%

Nunavut 29% 43% 18% 8% 3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats