Hypothesis Development

 Definition of a hypothesis
A hypothesis can be defined as a tentative, yes testable, statement, which predicts
what you expect to find in your empirical data. Hypothesis are derived from the
theory on which your conceptual model is based and are often reltional in nature.
Along these lines, hypotheses can be defined as logically conjectured relationships
between two or more variables expreseed in the form of testable statements. By
testing the hypotheses and confirming the conjectured relationships, it is expected
that solutions can be found to correct the problem encountered.

Example : “ Workforce diversity has a positive effect on organizational

effectiveness.” it is a testable statement. By measuring the extent of workforce
diversity and organizational effectiveness, we can statiscally examine the
relationship between these two variables to see if there is a significant ( positive )
correlation between the two. If we do find this to be the case, then the hypothesis is
susbstantiated. If a significant correlation is not found, then the hypothesis has not
bees substantiated. By convention in the social sciences, to call a realationship
“stastically significant”, we should be confidenr that 95 times out of the observed
reltionship will hold true. There should be only a 5% chance that the relationship will
not be detected.

 Statement of Hypotheses: formats

1. If then Statements
As already stated, a hypothesis can be defined as at testable statementof the
relationship among variables.a hypothesis can also test whether there are
differences between two groups (or among several groups) with respect to any
variable or variables. To examine whether or not the conjectured relationships or
differences exist, these hypotheses can be set either as propositions or in the form
of if-then statement . the two formats can be seen in the following two examples.

Example :
Young women will be more likely to express dissatisfaction with their body
weight, when they are more frequently exposed to images of thin models in
advertisements.

If young women are more frequently exposed to images of thin models in

advertisements, then they will be more likely to express dissatisfaction with
their body weight.
2. Directional and Nondirectional Hypotheses
If, in stating the relationship between two variables or comparing two groups,
terms such as positive, negative, more than , less than, and the like are used, then
these are directional hypotheses vecause the direction of the relationship between
the variables (positive/negative) is indicated, as in the first example below, or the
nature of the difference between two groups on a variable (more than/less than)
is postulated, as in the second example.

Example :
The greater the stress experienced in the job, the lower the job satisfaction of
employees.

Women are more motivated than men.

On the other hand , nondirectional hypotheses are those that do postulate a

relationship or difference, but offer no indication of the direction of these
relationships or differences. In other words, though it may be conjectured that
there is a significant relationship between two variables, we may not be able to
say whether the relationship is positive or negative, as in the first example below.
Likewise, even if we can conjecture that there will be more and which less on
that variable, as in the second example.

Example :
There is a relation between arousal – seeking tendency and consumer
preferences for complex product designs.

There is a difference between the work ethic values of American and Asian
employees.

Nondirectional hypoyhesesare formulated either because the relationship or

differences have never been explored, and henc there is no basis for indicating
the direction, or because there have been conflicting findings in prevoius research
studies on the variables. In some studies a positive relationship might have been
found, while in others a negative relationship might have been traced. Hence, the
current researcher might only be able to hypothesize that tehere is a significant
relationship, but the direction may not be clear. In such cases, the hypotheses can
be stated nondirectionally. Note that in the first example there is no clue as to
 whether arrousal – seeking tendency and preferences for complex product
designs are positively or negatively correlated, and in the second example we d
do not know whether the work ethic values are stronger in Americans or Asians.
However, it would have been possible to state that arrousal – seeking tendency
and preferences for complex product designs are positively correlated, since
prevoius research has indicated such a relationship whenever the direction of the
relationship is known.
3. Null and Alternate Hypotheses

The hypothetico‐deductive method requires that hypotheses are falsifiable:

they must be written in such a waythat other researchers can show them to be
false. For this reason, hypotheses are sometimes accompanied by nullhypotheses.
A null hypothesis (H0) is a hypothesis set up to be rejected in order to support
an alternate hypoth-esis, labeled HA. When used, the null hypothesis is presumed
true until statistical evidence, in the form of ahypothesis test, indicates otherwise.
For instance, the null hypothesis may state that advertising does not affectsales, or
that women and men buy equal amounts of shoes. In more general terms, the null hypothesis
may statethat the correlation between two variables is equal to zero or that the
difference in the means of two groups in thepopulation is equal to zero (or some
other definite number). Typically, the null statement is expressed in terms ofthere being no
(significant ) relationship between two variables or no (significant ) difference between two
groups.The alternate hypothesis, which is the opposite of the null, is a statement
expressing a relationship between two variables or indicating differences
between groups.
To explain further, in setting up the null hypothesis, we are stating that
there is no difference between whatwe might find in the population
characteristics (i.e., the total group we are interested in knowing somethingabout)
and the sample we are studying (i.e., a limited number representative of the total
population or group thatwe have chosen to study). Since we do not know the true
state of affairs in the population, all we can do is to drawinferences based on what
we find in our sample. What we imply through the null hypothesis is that any
differ-ences found between two sample groups or any relationships found
between two variables based on our sampleare simply due to random sampling
fluctuations and not due to any “true” differences between the two popula-tion groups (say, men
and women), or relationships between two variables (say, sales and profits). The
nullhypothesis is thus formulated so that it can be tested for possible rejection. If
we reject the null hypothesis, thenall permissible alternate hypotheses relating to
the particular relationship tested could be supported. It is thetheory that allows us
to have faith in the alternate hypothesis that is generated in the particular research
 investi-gation. This is one more reason why the theoretical framework should be
grounded on sound, defendable logicto start with. Otherwise, other researchers
are likely to refute and postulate other defensible explanations throughdifferent
alternate hypotheses.
The null hypothesis in respect of group differences stated in the example “
Women are more motivated than men ” would be:
H0 : µ M = µ W
or
H0 : µ M - µ W = 0

where H0 represents the null hypothesis μM is the mean motivational level of the
men, and μW is the mean motivational level of the women. The alternate for the
above example would statiscally be set as follows :

HA: µM < µW
which is the same as
H0: µW > µM

Where HA represents the alternate hypothesis and µM and µW are the mean
motivation levels of men and women respectively.
For the nondirectional hypothesis of mean group differences in work ethic
values
in the example “ There is a difference between the work ethic values of
American and Asian employees ” the null hypothesis would be :
H0: µAM = µAS
or
H0: µAM - µAS = 0
When H0 represents the null hypothesis, µAM is the mean work ethic value of

Americans and µAS is the mean work ethic value of Asians.

The alternate hypothesis for the above example would statistically be set as :
HA: µAM ≠ µAS
When HA represents the null hypothesis, µAM is the mean work ethic value of

Americans and µAS is the mean work ethic value of Asians respectively.The
null hypothesis for the relationship between the two variables in the
example “ The greater the stress experienced in the job, the lower the job
satisfaction of employees, ” would be H0 : There is no relationship between
stress experienced on he job and the job satisfaction of employees. This would
be statistically expressed by :
 H0 : ρ = 0
where ρ represents the correlation between stress and job satisfaction, which
in this case is equal to 0 ( i.e., no correlation ).
The alternate hypothesis for the above null, which has been expressed
directionally, can be statistically expressed as :
HA : ρ < 0 ( The correlation is negative )
For the example, “ There is a relationship between age and job satisfaction,”
which has been stated nondirectionally, the null hypothesis would be
statistically expressed as :
H0 : ρ = 0
Whereas the alternate hypothesis would be expressed as :
HA : ρ ≠ 0
Having formulated the null and alternate hypothesis, the appropriate
statistical tests (t-tests. F - tests) can then be applied, which indicate wheteher
or not support has been found for the alternate hypothesis – taht is, thar there
is a significant difference between groups or that there is a significant
relationship between variables, as hypothesized. The steps to be followed in
hypothesis testing are :
1. State the null and the alternate hypotheses.
2. Choose the appropriate statistical test depending on whether the
data collected are parametric or nonparametric.
3. Determine the level of significance desired (p = 0.005, or more,
or less ).
4. See if the output results from computer analysis indicate that the
significance level is met. If, as in the case of Pearson correlation
analysis in Excel software, the significance level is not indicated
in the print-out, look up the critical values that define the regions
of acceptance on the appropriate table (i.e.,( t, F, x2). The critical
value demarcates the region of rejection from that of acceptance
of the null hypothesis. Whwn the resultant value is larger than the
critical value, the null hypothesis is rejected, and the alternate
accepted. If the calculated value is less than the critical value, the
null is accepted and the alternate rejected.