Miracles

First published Mon Oct 11, 2010; substantive revision Wed Jan 23, 2019

A miracle (from the Latin mirari, to wonder), at a first and very rough approximation, is an event
that is not explicable by natural causes alone. A reported miracle excites wonder because it
appears to require, as its cause, something beyond the reach of human action and natural causes.
Historically, the appeal to miracles has formed one of the primary lines of argument in favor of
specific forms of theism, the argument typically being that the event in question can best (or can
only) be explained as the act of a particular deity.

 1. Concepts and Definitions

o 1.1 Miracles as events that exceed the productive power of nature
o 1.2 Miracles as violations of the laws of nature
o 1.3 The relevance of religious context
 2. Arguments for Miracle Claims
o 2.1 Categorical and confirmatory arguments
o 2.2 Four types of arguments
 3. Arguments against Miracle Claims
o 3.1 General arguments
o 3.2 Particular arguments
o 3.3 The impact of Hume’s “Of Miracles”
 4. Arguments from Miracles
o 4.1 Would miracles be evidence for the existence of God?
o 4.2 How much would credible miracle reports establish?
 Bibliography
 Academic Tools
 Other Internet Resources
 Related Entries

1. Concepts and Definitions

The philosophical discussion of miracles has focused principally on the credibility of certain
claims in the Jewish and Christian scriptures. But inquiry into the credibility of specific miracle
claims inevitably raises questions regarding the concept of a miracle, and arguments regarding
particular claims cannot be evaluated until the nature of that concept has been at least reasonably
clarified.

1.1 Miracles as events that exceed the productive power of nature

A common approach is to define a miracle as an interruption of the order or course of nature

(Sherlock 1843: 57). Some stable background is, in fact, presupposed by the use of the term, as
William Adams (1767: 15) notes:

An experienced uniformity in the course of nature hath been always thought necessary to the
belief and use of miracles. These are indeed relative ideas. There must be an ordinary regular
course of nature, before there can be any thing extraordinary. A river must flow, before its stream
can be interrupted.

As it stands, however, this definition leaves us wanting a more precise conception of what is
meant by the order or course of nature. We might therefore try to tighten the definition by saying
that a miracle is an event that exceeds the productive power of nature (St. Thomas
Aquinas, SCG 3.103; ST 1.110, art. 4), where “nature” is construed broadly enough to include
ourselves and any other creatures substantially like ourselves. Variations on this include the idea
that a miracle is an event that would have happened only given the intervention of an agent not
wholly bound by nature (Larmer 1988: 9) and that a miracle is an event that would have
happened only if there were a violation of the causal closure of the physical world.

1.2 Miracles as violations of the laws of nature

David Hume (Hume 1748/2000; cf. Voltaire 1764/1901: 272) famously defined a miracle as “a
violation of the laws of nature,” and this definition has been the focus of lively discussion ever
since. Hume evidently means to denote something beyond mere changes in the regular course of
nature, raising the bar higher for something to qualify as a miracle but also raising the potential
epistemic significance of such an event if it could be authenticated.

Bringing the concept of natural laws into the definition of “miracle” is, however, problematic,
and for a variety of reasons many writers have found it untenable (Brown 1822: 219–33; Beard
1845: 35; Lias 1890: 5–7; Huxley 1894:154–58; Joyce 1914: 17; Hesse 1965; Montgomery 1978;
but see Wardlaw 1852: 27–41). First, the concept of a miracle predates any modern concept of a
natural law by many centuries. While this does not necessarily preclude Hume’s concept, it does
raise the question of what concept or concepts earlier thinkers had in mind and of why the
Humean concept should be thought preferable (Tucker 2005). One benefit of defining miracles in
terms of violations of natural law is that this definition entails that a miracle is beyond the
productive power of nature. But if that is the key idea, then it is hard to see why we should not
simply use that as the definition and leave out the problematic talk of laws.
Second, it becomes difficult to say in some cases just which natural laws are being violated by
the event in question (Earman 2000). That dead men stay dead is a widely observed fact, but it is
not, in the ordinary scientific use of the term, a law of nature that dead men stay dead. The laws
involved in the decomposition of a dead body are all at a much more fundamental level, at least at
the level of biochemical and thermodynamic processes and perhaps at the level of interactions of
fundamental particles.

Third, there are deep philosophical disagreements regarding the nature and even the existence of
natural laws. On Hume’s own “regularity” view of natural laws, it is difficult to see what it would
mean for a natural law to be violated. If the natural laws are simply compendious statements of
natural regularities, an apparent “violation” would most naturally be an indication, not that a
supernatural intervention in the course of nature had occurred, but rather that what we had
thought was a natural law was, in fact, not one. On metaphysically rich conceptions of natural
laws, violations are problematic since the laws involve relations of necessity among universals.
And on the view that there are no natural laws whatsoever, the set of events satisfying the
Humean definition of a miracle is, trivially, empty.

Speaking of miracles as violations of the laws of nature also raises questions about the nature of
violation. Richard Swinburne (1970) has suggested that a miracle might be defined as a non-
repeatable counter-instance to a law of nature. If a putative law has broad scope, great
explanatory power, and appealing simplicity, it may be more reasonable, Swinburne argues, to
retain the law (defined as a regularity that virtually invariably holds) and to accept that the event
in question is a non-repeatable counter-instance of that law than to throw out the law and create a
vastly more complex law that accommodates the event.

One way to get around all of these problems and still retain the Humean formulation is simply to
redefine the laws of nature. J. L. Mackie sums up this perspective neatly:

The laws of nature … describe the ways in which the world—including, of course, human
beings—works when left to itself, when not interfered with. A miracle occurs when the world is
not left to itself, when something distinct from the natural order as a whole intrudes into it.
(Mackie 1982: 19–20)

With the notion of “natural law” thus redefined, the “violation” definition becomes virtually
equivalent to the earlier definition of a miracle as an event that exceeds the productive power of
nature. And in Mackie’s formulation it has the desirable feature that it makes evident the
connection between a miracle and supernatural agency.

1.3 The relevance of religious context

Beyond all of these considerations, some authors have made a case for the restriction of the term
“miracle” to events that are supernaturally caused and have some palpable religious significance.
An insignificant shift in a few grains of sand in the lonesome desert might, if it exceeded the
productive powers of nature, qualify as a miracle in some thin sense, but it would manifestly lack
religious significance and could not be used as the fulcrum for any interesting argument.
Considerations such as this have led many authors to build both the type of agency and some
intimation of the purpose into the definition of a miracle. Thus, Samuel Clarke (1719: 311–12)
writes that

the true Definition of a Miracle, in the Theological Sense of the Word, is this; that it is a work
effected in a manner unusual, or different from the common and regular Method of Providence,
by the interposition either of God himself, or of some Intelligent Agent superiour to Man, for the
Proof or Evidence of some particular Doctrine, or in attestation to the Authority of some
particular Person.

Hume also, in one of his definitions of “miracle,” speaks of an event brought about “by a
particular volition of the Deity, or by the interposition of some invisible agent” (Hume
1748/2000: 87). Since the paradigmatic cases under discussion are for the most part claims that,
if true, would answer to the theological dimension of Clarke’s description, one might take a
supernatural cause to be a necessary condition for an event’s being a religiously significant
miracle and use the word “miracle” in this sense where there is no danger of confusion. On the
other hand, Basinger (2018: 4) argues that incorporating the condition of supernatural agency into
the definition of a miracles would have the awkward consequence that the question of whether an
event is considered miraculous would depend upon an individual’s psychological sense; and
while such definitions are possible, they are out of the main stream of discussion in the literature
on miracles.

On the whole, then, the project of giving a definition for the term “miracle” appears to have
reached a point where further refinements offer only diminshing returns. A miracle is an event
that exceeds the productive power of nature, and a religiously significant miracle is a detectable
miracle that has a supernatural cause. For practical purposes, we need nothing further. The
paradigmatic claims under discussion—that a man who has died was raised to life again several
days after his death, for example, or that water was changed instantaneously into wine—satisfy
not only this definition but also most of the alternative proposals that have been seriously
advanced.

2. Arguments for Miracle Claims

“Miracles, indeed, would prove something,” admits the eponymous skeptic in
Berkeley’s Alciphron. “But what proof have we of these miracles?” (Berkeley 1732/1898: 364)
There is no lack of answers in the literature. But the variety of premises, the multiplicity of
argumentative structures, and the diversity of aims employed to this end can be bewildering.

Many arguments for miracles adduce the testimony of sincere and able eyewitnesses as the key
piece of evidence on which the force of the argument depends. But other factors are also cited in
favor of miracle claims: the existence of commemorative ceremonies from earliest times, for
example, or the transformation of the eyewitnesses from fearful cowards into defiant proclaimers
of the resurrection, or the conversion of St. Paul, or the growth of the early church under
extremely adverse conditions and without any of the normal conditions of success such as wealth,
patronage, or the use of force. These considerations are often used jointly in a cumulative
argument. It is therefore difficult to isolate a single canonical argument for most miracle claims.
The various arguments must be handled on a case-by-case basis.

2.1 Categorical and confirmatory arguments

Two dimensions of classification help to bring into focus the nature of the various arguments that
have been advanced on behalf of miracle claims, one having to do with the aims of the arguments
and the other having to do with their structure.

We may first distinguish between arguments designed to show that their conclusions are true,
reasonable, or justified, on the one hand, and arguments designed to show that their conclusions
are more reasonable or more justified than they were apart from the considerations adduced. The
former we may stipulatively call categorical arguments; the latter, confirmatory arguments.
When the arguments are probabilistic in nature, this reduces to Richard Swinburne’s terminology
of P-inductive and C-inductive arguments, the former intending to show that the conclusion (in
this case that the miracle in question has actually occurred) is probable to some specific degree,
or at least more probable than not, and the latter intending to show that the conclusion is more
probable given the evidence presented than it is considered independently of that evidence
(Swinburne, 2004). But the broader distinction between arguments that purport to command our
rational assent and arguments that have the more modest goal of showing their conclusions to be
to some (perhaps specified) extent confirmed is one that can be employed independently of the
use of the language of probability.

2.2 Four types of arguments

In addition to this classification of the aims of an argument, there is a more common distinction
among arguments in terms of their structure. Broadly speaking, most arguments for miracle
claims fall into one of four structural categories: deductive, criteriological, explanatory, or
probabilistic. A valid deductive argument is one in which, given the truth of the premises, the
conclusion must also be true. A criteriological argument sets forth some criteria ostensibly met
by the claim in question and concludes that the satisfaction of those criteria reflects well on the
claim—that it is certain, or true, or likely to be true, or plausible, or more plausible than it would
have been had it not met the criteria. An explanatory argument is typically contrastive: it aims to
show, for example, that one hypothesis is a better explanation of a certain body of facts than any
rival hypothesis or than the disjunction of all rival hypotheses. A probabilistic argument aims to
show that the conclusion is more probable than not, or that it is more probable than some fixed
standard (say, 0.99), or that it is far more probable given the evidence adduced than it is
considered independent of that evidence.
 The latter three categories are not mutually exclusive. An argument may be put forward as
criteriological but be best analyzed, on reflection, as explanatory; an explanatory argument may
be best analyzed in probabilistic terms. But the fourfold classification will do for a first rough
sorting.

2.2.1 Deductive arguments

Deductive arguments for miracle claims are relatively rare in serious modern discussions, since
they are subject to peculiar liabilities. Here, for example, is a deductive reconstruction of an
argument given by William Paley (1859), broadly modeled on the version given by Richard
Whately (1870: 254–258) and other Victorian logicians:

1. All miracles attested by persons, claiming to have witnessed them, who pass their lives in labors,
dangers, and sufferings in support of their statements, and who, in consequence of their belief,
submit to new rules of conduct, are worthy of credit.
2. The central Christian miracles are attested by such evidence.
Therefore,

3. The central Christian miracles are worthy of credit.

There are several strategies available for pressing a critique of this argument. In ancient times,
premise 2 was generally conceded, while premise 1 was contested; since the Enlightenment, it
has become somewhat more common for critics to contest premise 2 as well. There are also
indirect approaches that exploit the deductive structure of the argument to argue that something
must be wrong with the argument without getting bogged down in the details of a specific
critique. Adding further true premises does not reduce the support that a deductive argument
gives to its conclusion; but the addition of such premises may bring to light some awkward
consequences. One interpretation of one part of Hume’s strategy in “Of Miracles,” part 2 is that
he has in mind the addition of a further premise:

2*. Various non-Christian miracles are attested by such (or better) evidence,

the conclusion envisaged being, of course, that

3*. Various non-Christian miracles are worthy of credit.

The strategy is intended as a reductio ad absurdum of the first premise, since prima facie it is not
the case that both the Christian miracles and the non-Christian miracles are worthy of credit.
Paley does not cast his own argument into a deductive form, but he does attempt to forestall this
sort of criticism by adding, in rounding out Part 1, an additional claim for which he offers several
lines of argument:
 [T]here is not satisfactory evidence, that persons professing to be original witnesses of other
miracles, in their nature as certain as these are, have ever acted in the same manner, in attestation
of the accounts which they delivered, and properly in consequence of their belief of those
accounts. (Paley 1859: 181)

2.2.2 Criteriological arguments

A classic formulation of a criteriological argument for miracles is employed by Charles Leslie

(1697/1815: 13), who argues that we may safely believe an historical claim that meets four
criteria:

1. That the matters of fact be such, as that men’s outward senses, their eyes and ears, may be judges
of it.
2. That it be done publicly in the face of the world.
3. That not only public monuments be kept up in memory of it, but some outward actions to be
performed.
4. That such monuments, and such actions or observances, be instituted, and do commence from the
time that the matter of fact was done.
The first two criteria, Leslie explains, “make it impossible for any such matter of fact to be
imposed upon men, at the time when such fact was said to be done, because every man’s eyes
and senses would contradict it.” The latter two criteria assure those who come afterwards that the
account of the event was not invented subsequent to the time of the purported event. Leslie points
out that these criteria are not necessary conditions of factual truth, but he insists that they are—
taken jointly—sufficient. Hence we may speak of Leslie’s principle: If any reported event meets
all four of these criteria, then its historicity is certain.

In assessing a criteriological argument, we need to ask not only whether the event in question
meets the criteria but also whether the criteria themselves are good indicators of truth. An
argument for the criteria that Leslie gives cannot proceed wholly a priori, since there is not a
necessary connection between an event’s satisfying the criteria and its being true. In this case,
perhaps the most promising approach would be to argue that the criteria effectively rule out
explanations other than the truth of the claim. Leslie’s remarks suggest that this is the direction
he would go if challenged, but he does not offer a fully developed defense of his criteria.

Leslie’s argument is, in the sense outlined above, categorical—he holds that, as the claim of the
resurrection meets all four criteria (the memorials being supplied by the Christian
commemoration of the last supper and the transfer of the day of worship from the Sabbath
(Saturday) to the first day of the week (Sunday)), the certainty of the matter of fact in question is
“demonstrated.” This rather bold claim opens the possibility of refutation of Leslie’s principle by
counterexample, though reportedly Conyers Middleton, a contemporary of Hume whose critique
of the ecclesiastical miracles was notable for its thoroughness, searched vainly for years for a
 counterexample to Leslie’s principle. Be that as it may, a criteriological argument may also be
constructed on the basis of a more modest principle, such as that if any reported event meets all
four of these criteria, then it is reasonable to accept its historicity.

The chief difficulty with criteriological arguments, whether bold or modest, is that they provide
no means for taking into account any other considerations that might weigh against the historical
claim in question. Intuitively, extreme antecedent improbability ought to carry some weight in
our evaluation of the credibility of a factual claim. A defender of a criteriological argument might
respond that so long as the bar is set high enough, antecedent improbability will be overwhelmed
by the fact that the event does indeed meet the stipulated criteria. But this is a claim that requires
argument; and the bolder the conclusion, the more argument it requires.

2.2.3 Explanatory arguments

A third approach to arguing for a miracle claim is to argue that it is the best explanation for a
small set of widely conceded facts. A typical “minimal facts” argument for the resurrection of
Jesus starts with a list of facts such as these (Habermas 1996: 162):

1. Jesus died by crucifixion.

2. His disciples subsequently had experiences which they believed were literal physical appearances
of the risen Jesus.
3. The disciples were transformed from fearful cowards into bold proclaimers who were willing to
face persecution and death for their message.
4. Paul, who had previously been a persecutor of the Christians, had an experience that he also
believed was an appearance of the risen Jesus.
None of these four facts is, in itself, a supernatural claim, and virtually all critical scholars with
relevant expertise concur in these facts on ordinary historical grounds. The explanatory argument
starts with this scholarly consensus and contends that all alternative explanations for these facts
are inferior to the explanation that Jesus actually did rise from the dead. The conclusion is
therefore typically categorical.

One advantage of this approach over the criteriological approach is that the inference is explicitly
contrastive: the argument engages directly with alternative explanations of the data. Such
engagement brings with it the burden of examining a variety of alternative explanations, a burden
that is sometimes discharged by reference to established criteria of historical explanation (Craig
2008: 233).

This sort of explanatory argument may be contested in at least five ways, a number of which have
been explored. First, one might try, the scholarly consensus notwithstanding, to dispute the facts
asserted. (Crossan, in Copan 1998) If successful, this strategy would undermine the positive
argument. Second, one might grant, if only for the sake of the argument, the prima facie force of
the positive argument but attempt to neutralize it by widening the factual basis to include a
matching set of facts, equally well attested, for which the falsehood of the resurrection account is
the best explanation. Third, one might argue that the relative merits of the miraculous and non-
miraculous explanations have been improperly assessed and that, rightly considered, one or more
of the non-miraculous explanations is actually preferable as an explanation of the facts in
question. (Lüdemann, in Copan and Tacelli 2000) Fourth, one might produce a non-miraculous
explanation not addressed in the explanatory argument and argue that it is superior to the
miraculous explanation (Venturini 1800; cf. O’Collins and Kendall 1996). Fifth, one might
contest the implication that an explanation that is superior to its rivals in pairwise comparisons is
actually more reasonable to believe than not. It is not difficult to imagine (or even to find) cases
where one explanation is marginally better than any given rival but where the disjunction of the
rival explanations is more believable. This final criticism applies only when the explanatory
argument is categorical; but in that case, a further argument would be necessary to close off this
line of criticism.

2.2.4 Probabilistic arguments

A fourth method of arguing for a miracle claim is to employ the machinery of Bayesian
probability and argue that some fact or set of facts renders the conclusion probable (for a
categorical argument) or significantly more probable than it was taken apart from those facts (for
a confirmatory one). The argument could be cast in categorical form using the odds form of
Bayes’s Theorem. It is a simple consequence of Bayes’s Theorem that, where ‘MM’ is the claim
that a miracle has taken place and ‘EE’ is some evidence bearing on that claim, and where all of
the relevant terms are defined,
P(M∣E)P(∼M∣E)=P(M)P(∼M)×P(E∣M)P(E∣∼M)P(M∣E)P(∼M∣E)=P(M)P(∼M)×P(E∣M)P(E∣∼M)
Verbally, this says that the posterior odds on MM (that is, the ratio of the posterior probability
of MM to the posterior probability of its negation) equal the product of the prior odds and the
Bayes factor. More colloquially, MM becomes more plausible when we take into account
evidence EE that is more to be expected if MM is true than if MM is false. A categorical
argument of this sort would involve plugging in values (either point-valued or interval-valued)
for each term in this equation and concluding that P(M∣E)>kP(M∣E)>k, where kk is some
constant with a value greater than or equal to 0.5. The evaluation of such an argument is likely to
turn principally on the relative magnitudes of P(M)P(M) and P(E∣∼M)P(E∣∼M), since in many
contexts the disputants will grant that the other two probabilities that appear on the right side of
the equation—P(∼M)P(∼M) and P(E∣M)P(E∣M)—are very close to 1. A confirmatory
probabilistic argument might proceed from the same premises but dispense with the ratio of the
priors, focusing on the fact that the ratio P(E∣M)/P(E∣∼M)P(E∣M)/P(E∣∼M) is top heavy.
The equation may give the impression that what is going on is rather arcane. In fact, the
mathematics is simply a means of making explicit a common process of reasoning described well
by Joseph Butler (1736/1819: 194):
[T]he truth of our religion, like the truth of common matters, is to be judged of by all the
evidence taken together. And unless the whole series of things which may be alleged in this
argument, and every particular thing in it, can reasonably be supposed to have been by accident
(for here the stress of the argument for Christianity lies); then is the truth of it proved: in like
manner, as if in any common case, numerous events acknowledged, were to be alleged in proof
of any other event disputed; the truth of the disputed event would be proved, not only if any one
of the acknowledged ones did of itself clearly imply it but, though no one of them singly did so,
if the whole of the acknowledged events taken together could not in reason be supposed to have
happened, unless the disputed one were true.

Allowing for the change in terminology over the centuries, Butler’s description can be read as a
verbal explication of the categorical form of the Bayesian argument. If the facts can be accounted
for without difficulty on the supposition of MM but not, without great implausibility, on the
assumption of ∼M∼M, then they provide significant evidence in favor of MM. On this reading,
Butler is tacitly assuming that the prior probability of MM is not so low as to overcome the
cumulative force of the evidence in its favor.
Historically, probabilistic arguments for miracles have centered on the credibility of eyewitness
testimony to the miraculous. Where Ti(M)Ti(M) stands for “Witness ii testifies that MM,” we
may write the relevant form of Bayes’s Theorem as
P(M∣T1(M)&…&Tn(M))P(∼M∣T1(M)&…&Tn(M))=P(M)P(∼M)×P(T1(M)&…&Tn(M)∣M)P(T
1(M)&…&Tn(M)∣∼M)P(M∣T1(M)&…&Tn(M))P(∼M∣T1(M)&…&Tn(M))=P(M)P(∼M)×P(T1
(M)&…&Tn(M)∣M)P(T1(M)&…&Tn(M)∣∼M)
If we assume that these testimonies are independent of each other relative both to MM and
to ∼M∼M—an assumption that should not be made casually (Kruskal 1988)—we can replace the
final term on the right with the product
P(T1(M)∣M)P(T1(M)∣∼M)×…×P(Tn(M)∣M)P(Tn(M)∣ ∼M)P(T1(M)∣ M)P(T1(M)∣ ∼M)×…×P
(Tn(M)∣ M)P(Tn(M)∣ ∼M)
On the further simplifying assumption that all of the testimonies are of equal weight, this product
reduces to

[P(T1(M)∣ M)P(T1(M)∣ ∼M)]n[P(T1(M)∣ M)P(T1(M)∣ ∼M)]n

If P(T1(M)∣ M)/P(T1(M)∣ ∼M)>1P(T1(M)∣ M)/P(T1(M)∣ ∼M)>1, it follows at once that the
claim, arguably attributable to Hume, that the evidence of testimony can never overcome the
antecedent presumption against a miracle, is false. As Charles Babbage puts it:
[I]f independent witnesses can be found, who speak truth more frequently than falsehood, it
is ALWAYS possible to assign a number of independent witnesses, the improbability of the
falsehood of whose concurring testimony shall be greater than the improbability of the alleged
miracle. (Babbage 1837: 202, emphasis original; cf. Holder 1998 and Earman 2000)

Ahmed (2015) argues that the anti-Humean argument leveled by Babbage (1837), Holder (1999),
and Earman (2000) requires an assumption of the conditional independence of successive
testimonies to the putative event, an assumption that is plausibly always violated both conditional
on the assumption of its truth and conditional on the assumption of its falsehood. In the abstract
to his article, Ahmed summarizes his point by saying that “even multiple reports from non-
collusive witnesses lack the sort of independence that could make trouble for Hume.” This
enthusiastic promise is tempered, however, by Ahmed’s recognition later in the same article that
something very much like the same critique can be leveled granting that conditional
independence fails in both cases, provided that the ratio of the likelihoods does not converge to 1
too quickly. So in his own summary, his arguments “do not after all realize the ‘everlasting check
to all kinds of superstitious delusion’ that Hume envisaged” (Ahmed 2015: 1042).

The evaluation of a serious cumulative argument for a particular miracle claim requires the
consideration of historical details that go beyond the bounds of philosophy as a discipline
(McGrew and McGrew 2009). But some general points regarding its structure are of
philosophical interest. If the argument is categorical, then its conclusion is (at least) that, where
“EE” stands for the sum of the relevant evidence, P(M∣ E)>0.5P(M∣ E)>0.5. But where “GG”
stands for “God exists” (where “God” is conceived classically, as an eternal, personal being of
maximal power, knowledge, and goodness who created the universe), it is generally
acknowledged that P(M∣ G)≫P(M∣ ∼G)P(M∣ G)≫P(M∣ ∼G) and that
either P(M∣ ∼G)=0P(M∣ ∼G)=0 (if miracles are strictly the prerogative of God) or at
least P(M∣ ∼G)≈0P(M∣ ∼G)≈0. The evaluation of the claim that a miracle has occurred will
therefore be sensitive to the probability of the claim that God exists, and the evaluation of the
categorical form of the argument will therefore depend on the overall evaluation of the evidence
of natural theology and of atheological arguments such as the problem of evil. By far the most
sophisticated and elaborate development of such an argument is to be found in the work of
Richard Swinburne (1970, 1977, 1979, 1992, 2003), who has pioneered the application of
Bayesian probability to questions in the philosophy of religion and whose work spans the full
range of natural theology.
The confirmatory form of the probabilistic argument is more modest; it aims to show that there is
a considerable contribution to the argument for MM arising from the facts indicated (McGrew
and McGrew 2009). It has been objected (Oppy 2006: 5–6) that probabilistic arguments of this
sort are of no interest unless they are founded on all of the relevant available evidence. But this
objection would, if legitimate, count equally against the use of arguments from comparison of
likelihoods in scientific reasoning, where they are ubiquitous. More cautiously, one might ask
why an argument that places no definite restrictions on the probability of MM should be of any
interest. One answer would be that a successful confirmatory argument may shift the burden of
proof. If there is a substantial body of evidence in favor of MM, it is incumbent on those who
deny MM to explain in some detail either (1) why the antecedent presumption
against MM should override this evidence or (2) what the other evidential considerations are that
mitigate against MM.

3. Arguments against Miracle Claims

 Arguments against miracle claims, like arguments in their favor, come in a variety of forms,
invoke diverse premises, and have distinct aims. We may distinguish general arguments,
designed to show that all miracle claims are subject in principle to certain failings, from
particular arguments, designed to show that, whatever may be the case in principle, such miracle
claims as have historically been offered are inadequately supported.

3.1 General arguments

General arguments against miracle claims fall into two broad classes: those designed to show that
miracles are impossible, and those designed to show that miracle claims could never be
believable.

3.1.1 Arguments that miracles are impossible

The boldest claim that could be made against reported miracles is that such events are impossible.
Insofar as the definition of “miracle” in question is one that involves divine agency, any
argument that demonstrated the non-existence of God would be eo ipso a demonstration that
miracles do not take place; and an argument that demonstrated that the existence of God is
impossible would demonstrate that miracles are likewise impossible. But the more common
arguments for this conclusion are more modest; rather than setting out to show the existence of
God to be impossible, they typically invoke theological premises to show that if there were a
God, then miracles would not occur.

In chapter 6 of his Tractatus Theologico-Politicus, Baruch Spinoza sets out to argue for the claim
that nature cannot be contravened, but that she “preserves a fixed and immutable course,” in
consequence of which a miracle is “a sheer absurdity” (Spinoza 1670/1862: 123, 128). His
argument for this claim is somewhat difficult to follow, but it appears to run approximately like
this:

1. The will of God is identical with the laws of nature.

2. A miracle is a violation of the laws of nature.
3. Necessarily, God’s will is inviolable.
Therefore,

4. Miracles cannot happen.

Spinoza’s argument is unlikely to persuade anyone who does not start out with his identification
of the laws of nature with the will of God. From a more traditional theistic standpoint, the
argument is simply an elaborate exercise in begging the question.

A non-theological version of this argument, sometimes mistakenly attributed to Hume, is actually

due to Voltaire (1764/1901: 272):
A miracle is the violation of mathematical, divine, immutable, eternal laws. By the very
exposition itself, a miracle is a contradiction in terms: a law cannot at the same time be
immutable and violated.

The trouble with this crude argument is once again in the definition of “miracle,” which here goes
beyond a mere violation concept in adding immutability, which generates the contradiction. One
retort that historically proved attractive is to accept the violation concept but deny that the laws of
nature are immutable; instead the truly immutable laws are higher laws—laws that govern not
only the behavior of physical entities but the interactions of physical and non-physical entities—
and what appear to us to be violations of the laws of nature are really nothing less than instances
of a higher law (Trench 1847:14–17; cf. Venn 1888: 433 ff).

A more subtle version of a theological objection can also be found in the entry “Miracles” in
Voltaire’s Philosophical Dictionary (1764/1901: 273):

[I]t is impossible a being infinitely wise can have made laws to violate them. He could not …
derange the machine but with a view of making it work better; but it is evident that God, all-wise
and omnipotent, originally made this immense machine, the universe, as good and perfect as He
was able; if He saw that some imperfections would arise from the nature of matter, He provided
for that in the beginning; and, accordingly, He will never change anything in it.

It is therefore impious to ascribe miracles to God; they would indicate a lack of forethought, or of
power, or both.

This argument was popular during the deist controversy of the early and mid 18th century, and
the orthodox response is summed up well by Paley (1859: 12): “[I]n what way can a revelation be
made but by miracles? In none which we are able to conceive.” Paley’s point is not merely
negative; rather, it is that only by setting up a universe with regularities that no mere human can
abrogate and then suspending them could God, if there were a God, authenticate a revelation,
stamping it with divine approval by an act of sovereignty. If there is a God who wishes to
authenticate a communication to man in an unmistakable fashion, then, in Paley’s view, an
authenticating miracle is inevitable. It is therefore not at all impious to ascribe miracles to God,
and they imply no limit either on His knowledge or on His power; they are both a sign of His
approval and evidence of His benevolent foresight.

3.1.2 Arguments that miracle claims could never be rationally believed

The principal argument against the rational credibility of miracle claims derives from Hume. “A
miracle,” he writes,

is a violation of the laws of nature; and as a firm and unalterable experience has established these
laws, the proof against a miracle, from the very nature of the fact, is as entire as any argument
from experience can possibly be imagined. (Hume 1748/2000: 86–87)
He ends the first Part of his essay “Of Miracles” with a general maxim:

The plain consequence is (and it is a general maxim worthy of our attention), “That no testimony
is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood
would be more miraculous, than the fact, which it endeavours to establish: And even in that case,
there is a mutual destruction of arguments, and the superior only gives us an assurance suitable to
that degree of force, which remains, after deducting the inferior.”

The maxim itself is open to interpretive disputes. George Campbell (1762/1839) considers it to
be trivial, a judgment with which Earman (2000) concurs. One simple way to arrive at it from a
Bayesian point of view is to take the initial equation

P(M∣ E)P(∼M∣ E)=P(M)P(∼M)×P(E∣ M)P(E∣ ∼M),P(M∣ E)P(∼M∣ E)=P(M)P(∼M)×P(E∣ M

)P(E∣ ∼M),
where EE is the proposed evidence for a miracle, and make the simplifying approximation
that P(E∣ M)≈P(∼M)P(E∣ M)≈P(∼M), since both terms are close to 1. Then the right side
reduces to the ratio of the two remaining “small” terms, P(M)/P(E∣ ∼M)P(M)/P(E∣ ∼M), which
will be a fair approximation of the posterior odds. Then the posterior probability of M will
exceed 0.5 just in case P(M)>P(E∣ ∼M)P(M)>P(E∣ ∼M). This interpretation is endorsed by
Holder (1998) but challenged by Millican (2002), who also surveys various other probabilistic
interpretations of Hume’s maxim.
Millican (2011) argues that many interpreters of Hume have overlooked a critical distinction
between a type of testimony and a token of that testimony, where the latter is a particular instance
of testimony asserting the occurrence of one particular event. Under the token interpretation,
Millican grants, Hume’s maxim would be trivial. But on the former interpretation, all testimony
belongs to a type that has a characteristic or typical probability of falsehood. According to
Millican, it is that typical probability that Hume has in view when constructing his maxim rather
than the particular probability of falsehood of a specific piece of evidence.

Hume immediately illustrates this maxim by applying it to the case of testimony to a resurrection:

When anyone tells me, that he saw a dead man restored to life, I immediately consider with
myself, whether it be more probable, that this person should either deceive or be deceived, or that
the fact, which he relates, should really have happened. I weigh the one miracle against the other;
and according to the superiority, which I discover, I pronounce my decision, and always reject
the greater miracle. If the falsehood of his testimony would be more miraculous, than the event
which he relates; then, and not till then, can he pretend to command my belief or opinion. (Hume
1748/2000: 87–88)

Is this an argument, or even an elliptical statement of one premise in an argument? And if so,
what is its structure? The traditional interpretation has been that it is an argument from the nature
of the case, the conclusion being that a miracle story could not be believed on testimony even
under the most favorable circumstances. As far as we can tell, all of Hume’s contemporaries,
 including John Leland (1755), William Adams (1767), Richard Price (1777), and George
Campbell (1762/1839), read him this way. There is, however, considerable recent disagreement
as to whether Hume intended Part 1 of his essay as an argument, disagreement that arises in part
from the apprehension on the part of some of Hume’s defenders that if it is an argument, it is not
very good. The interpretive issues are too extensive to summarize; see Flew (1961), Levine
(1989: 152), Johnson (1999), Earman (2000), Fogelin (2003), McGrew (2005), and Hájek (2008).
But it is beyond contesting that some such argument, widely attributed to Hume, has been
tremendously influential.

A very simple version of the argument, leaving out the comparison to the laws of nature and
focusing on the alleged infirmities of testimony, can be laid out deductively (following Whately,
in Paley 1859: 33):

1. Testimony is a kind of evidence very likely to be false.

2. The evidence for the Christian miracles is testimony.
Therefore,

3. The evidence for the Christian miracles is likely to be false.

This is, however, much too crude an argument to carry any weight, since it turns on a simple
ambiguity between all testimony and some testimony. Whately offers an amusing parody that
makes the fallacy obvious: Some books are mere trash; Hume’s Works are [some] books;
therefore, etc.

Another crude argument that focuses solely on the improbability of miracle claims (Ehrman
2003: 228–229) may be laid out thus:

1. A miracle is by definition the most improbable of events; the probability of a miracle is

infinitesimally remote.
2. An historian can establish only what probably happened in the past.
Therefore,

3. An historian can never establish that a miracle happened.

Waiving the tendentious definition in premise 1, the supposed contradiction involved in denying
the conclusion—“that the most improbable event is the most probable” (Ehrman 2003: 229)—is
merely verbal, arising from a failure to distinguish between the probability of a miracle claim
considered apart from the evidence and the probability of the claim given that evidence.

Flew (1966: 146; cf. Bradley 1874/1935) offers a more sophisticated criticism, arguing from the
nature of historical inquiry that rational belief in miracles is precluded:
The basic propositions are: first, that the present relics of the past cannot be interpreted as
historical evidence at all, unless we presume that the same fundamental regularities obtained then
as still obtain today; second, that in trying as best he may to determine what actually happened
the historian must employ as criteria all his present knowledge, or presumed knowledge, of what
is probable or improbable, possible or impossible; and, third, that, since miracle has to be defined
in terms of practical impossibility the application of these criteria inevitably precludes proof of a
miracle.

The most obvious rejoinder here is that the believer in miracles does not generally believe that
there are no dependable regularities in the physical world; it is in the nature of a miracle to be an
exception to the ordinary course of nature. The feared undermining of the principles of historical
inquiry is therefore an illusion generated by exaggerating the scale on which the order of nature
would be disrupted were a miracle actually to occur.

An alternative reading of Hume, proposed by Dorothy Coleman (1988: 338–339), is that

an event that has no ready natural explanation is not necessarily an event that has no natural
cause. To be a miracle, an event must be inexplicable not in terms of what appears to us to be the
laws of nature but in terms of what laws of nature actually are…. [O]ne must ask if it is always
more likely, i.e., conformable to experience, that those claiming the event to be a miracle are
mistaken rather than that the event is a genuine violation of a law of nature. Counterinstances of
what are taken to be natural laws are not by themselves evidence establishing that no natural law
could possibly explain them: at most they provide grounds for revising our formulations of
natural laws or seeking an improved understanding of the nature of the phenomena in question.
At the very least they provide grounds for suspending judgments about the nature of their cause
until more evidence is available. On the other hand, past experience shows that what are at one
time considered violations of natural laws are frequently found at some later time not to be so.
Proportioning belief to evidence, therefore, it is more reasonable to believe that the claim that an
event is a miracle is mistaken than it is that the event is a violation of natural law.

There is not much to commend this line of argument as a reading of Hume; both the casual
attitude toward our identification of the laws of nature and the willingness to grant the occurrence
of the event jar with Hume’s own presentation of his view. As Hajek (2008: 86–87) stresses,
Hume is unambiguously arguing that we should disbelieve testimony to an event’s occurrence,
when that event really would be miraculous.

As an independent objection to belief in reported miracles, Coleman’s argument has limited

force. On a ceteris paribus conception of natural laws, apparent counterevidence to a putative law
may, depending on circumstances, reduce the probability of the law only slightly, the majority of
the impact of the evidence going to raise the probability that all else is not, in the present case,
equal. There is no general principle that would license the conclusion that it is more reasonable to
accept the falsehood of the putative law than to suppose the causal closure of nature to be
violated. Everything depends on the details of specific cases.
 A more faithful representation of Hume’s reasoning brings back in the comparison between “two
opposite experiences,” reconstructing his argument along these lines:

1. The argument against a miracle, from the nature of the case, is as strong as any argument from
experience could possibly be.
2. The argument for a miracle, from testimony, is at best a strong but somewhat weaker argument
from experience.
3. In any case where two arguments from experience point to contradictory conclusions, the
stronger argument must prevail.
4. A conclusion is credible only if the argument supporting it is not overcome by a stronger
argument for a contradictory conclusion.
Therefore,

5. The argument for a miracle, from testimony, cannot even under the most favorable circumstances
render belief in a miracle credible.
Hume’s early critics objected vigorously to the claims embodied in the first two premises. Price
(1777: 402; cf. Adams 1767: 10–11 and Paley 1859: 13–14) retorts against the claim in premise 1
that “a miracle is more properly an event different from experience than contrary to it.” The
presumptive case against the resurrection from universal testimony would be as strong as Hume
supposes only if, per impossible, all mankind throughout all ages had been watching the tomb of
Jesus on the morning of the third day and testified that nothing occurred. Even aside from the
problems of time travel, there is not a single piece of direct testimonial evidence to Jesus’ non-
resurrection. Premise 1 is therefore a wild overstatement.

Adams (1767: 37) mounts an attack on premise 2 by drawing attention to the manner in which
the lives of the apostles corroborate their testimony:

That men should love falshood rather than truth—that they should chuse labour and travail,
shame and misery, before pleasure, ease, and esteem—is as much a violation of the laws of
nature, as it is for lead or iron to hang unsupported in the air, or for the voice of a man to raise the
dead to life: but this, I have granted to the author, is, not miraculous, but impossible, and shall
therefore have his leave, I hope, to assert, that falshood, thus attested, is impossible—in other
words, that testimony, thus tried and proved, is infallible and certain.

And he drives home the point by a quotation from Hume himself:

We cannot make use of a more convincing argument, than to prove that the actions ascribed to
any person are directly contrary to the course of nature, and that no human motives, in such
circumstances, could ever induce him to such a conduct. (Adams 1767: 48, quoting Hume
1748/2000: 65)
 This argument, of course, proves at best only the sincerity of the witnesses. But in the present
case, he goes on to argue, the nature of the facts attested precludes the possibility that the
witnesses are themselves deceived (Adams 1767:37–38; cf. Jenkin 1708: 488–93).

Alan Hájek (2008: 88) offers a more detailed reconstruction of this argument. The first stage
corresponds to the argument in “Of Miracles,” Part I:

1. A miracle is a violation of the laws of nature.

2. A law of nature is, inter alia, a regularity to which no exception has previously been experienced.
Thus,

3. There is as compelling a ‘proof’ from experience as can possibly be imagined against a miracle.
4. In particular, the proof from experience in favour of testimony of any kind cannot be more
compelling.
5. There is no other form of proof in favour of testimony.
Therefore,

6. The falsehood of the testimony to a miraculous event is always at least as probable as the event
attested to (however good the testimony seems to be).
However,

7. Hume’s balancing principle. The testimony should be believed if, and only if, the falsehood of
the testimony is less probable than the event attested to.
Therefore, (by 7 and 8):

8. Conclusion 1. Testimony to a miraculous event should never be believed—belief in a miracle

report could never be justified.
Hájek makes a strong case that this is a faithful reconstruction of Hume’s reasoning. But as he
goes on to point out, this argument is problematic at multiple points. The definition in 1 is at the
least not forced upon us; and the inference from 1 and 2 to 3 overlooks the possibility that a
regularity to which no exception has previously been experienced is also a regularity of which
no instance has previously been experienced—a possibility that is countenanced on some major
conceptions of laws—or that the law in question has not been instanced very often (Hájek 2008:
91). Hume might reply that, while this is theoretically possible, it does not hold in the cases of
interest. But even granting that reply, Hájek points out that 5 may be questioned; and 6 is deeply
problematic, since lack of analogy is at best an obscure reason for concluding that an event is
maximally improbable. For if strength of analogy is a critical determinant in a rational agent’s
probability function, then he should be comparably skeptical regarding all spectacular scientific
discoveries—“And that is absurd” (Hájek 2008: 103).
Larmer (2013) surveys a wide range of in-principle objections to justified belief in miracle claims
in general and argues that all of them fail to deliver the promised conclusion.

3.2 Particular arguments

Because the field of arguments for miracles is so wide, a consideration of all of the criticisms that
have been leveled against particular arguments for miracles would fill many volumes. But four
particular arguments raised by Hume are sufficiently well known to be of interest to
philosophers.

In Part 2 of his essay “Of Miracles,” Hume argues that there never was a miraculous event
established on evidence so full as to amount to an “entire proof.” The considerations Hume
marshals in this section had, for the most part, been canvassed thoroughly during the deist
controversy in the preceeding half century; Hume’s credit in this Part is not that of originating the
arguments but rather that of stating them clearly and forcefully.

3.2.1 The argument from inauspicious conditions

First, Hume lists a set of conditions that would, in his view, be necessary in order for an
argument from testimony to have its full force, and he argues that no miracle report has ever met
these conditions:

[T]here is not to be found, in all history, any miracle attested by a sufficient number of men, of
such unquestioned good sense, education, and learning, as to secure us against all delusion in
themselves; of such undoubted integrity, as to place them beyond all suspicion of any design to
deceive others; of such credit and reputation in the eyes of mankind, as to have a great deal to
lose in case of their being detected in any falsehood; and at the same time attesting facts,
performed in such a public manner, and in so celebrated a part of the world, as to render the
detection unavoidable: All which circumstances are requisite to give us a full assurance in the
testimony of men. (Hume 1748/2000: 88)

Hume does not elaborate on these conditions, and it is difficult to say how he might have
responded to Leland’s charge that they are not necessary and would in some cases cut the other
direction. For example, Leland argues that meeting the condition of “credit and reputation” would
actually have weakened the evidence for the Christian miracles:

It might have been said with some shew of plausibility, that such persons by their knowledge and
abilities, their reputation and interest, might have it in their power to countenance and propagate
an imposture among the people, and give it some credit in the world. (Leland 1755: 90–91; cf.
Beckett 1883: 29–37)

3.2.2 The argument from the passions of surprise and wonder

Thomas Morgan (1739: 31) raises a second charge in these words:

Men are the more easily imposed on in such Matters, as they love to gratify the Passion
of Admiration, and take a great deal of Pleasure in hearing or telling of Wonders.

The implication is twofold: miracle stories are more likely than other falsehoods to be told, since
they cater to a natural human desire to be amazed; and they are more likely than other falsehoods
to be believed, since the same passions conduce to their uncritical reception. Hume, perhaps
following Morgan, makes much the same point in nearly the same words. But he goes beyond
Morgan in specifying a further exacerbating factor: the religious context of a miracle claim, he
urges, makes the telling of a miracle story even more likely.

[I]f the spirit of religion join itself to the love of wonder, there is an end of common sense; and
human testimony, in these circumstances, loses all pretensions to authority. A religionist may be
an enthusiast, and imagine he sees what has no reality: He may know his narrative to be false,
and yet persevere in it, with the best intentions in the world, for the sake of promoting so holy a
cause: Or even where this delusion has not place, vanity, excited by so strong a temptation,
operates on him more powerfully than on the rest of mankind in any other circumstances; and
self-interest with equal force. (Hume 1748/2000: 89)

But as George Campbell points out (1762/1839: 48–49), this consideration cuts both ways; the
religious nature of the claim may also operate to make it less readily received:

[T]he prejudice resulting from the religious affection, may just as readily obstruct as promote our
faith in a religious miracle. What things in nature are more contrary, than one religion is to
another religion? They are just as contrary as light and darkness, truth and error. The affections
with which they are contemplated by the same person, are just as opposite as desire and aversion,
love and hatred. The same religious zeal which gives the mind of a Christian a propensity to the
belief of a miracle in support of Christianity, will inspire him with an aversion from the belief of
a miracle in support of Mahometanism. The same principle which will make him acquiesce in
evidence less than sufficient in one case, will make him require evidence more than sufficient in
the other….

… [T]hat the evidence arising from miracles performed in proof of a doctrine disbelieved, and
consequently hated before, did in fact surmount that obstacle, and conquer all the opposition
arising thence, is a very strong presumption in favour of that evidence; just as strong a
presumption in its favour, as it would have been against it, had all their former zeal, and
principles, and prejudices, co-operated with the evidence, whatever it was, in gaining an entire
assent.

Moreover, as Campbell (1762/1839: 49) immediately points out,

there is the greatest disparity in this respect, a disparity which deserves to be particularly attended
to, betwixt the evidence of miracles performed in proof of a religion to be established, and
in contradiction to opinions generally received; and the evidence of miracles performed in
support of a religion already established, and in confirmation of opinions generally received.

It is, therefore, a debatable question whether the consideration of the passions evoked by tales of
the miraculous works for or against the miracle claim in any given instance. This is not an issue
that can be settled in advance of a detailed consideration of the facts.

3.2.3 The argument from ignorance and barbarism

A third general argument is that miracle stories are most popular in backward cultures. As John
Toland (1702: 148) puts it,

it is very observable, that the more ignorant and barbarous any People remain, you shall find ’em
most abound with Tales of this nature …

The unstated moral to be drawn is that both the production and the reception of miracle stories
are due to a failure to understand the secondary causes lying behind phenomena, while increasing
knowledge and culture leaves no room for such stories. Hume (2000: 90–91) also borrowed this
line of reasoning.

But the supposed trajectory of societies from ignorant superstition to enlightened rationalism
owes a good deal more to selective illustration than one would suspect from reading Toland and
Hume. Campbell (1762/1839: 70) points out that in the Qur’an Mohammed made no claim to
work public miracles, though by Toland’s (and Hume’s) reasoning the circumstances would have
been most propitious for such tales. Coming forward in time, miracle stories abounded in the
18th century, as Hume well knew. And renowned scientists such as Isaac Newton and Robert
Boyle were well known defenders of the Christian miracle claims. Other forces are at work in the
creation and acceptance of miracle stories besides the relative level of civilization and education.

3.2.4 The argument from parity

As a fourth and final argument, Hume sketches some accounts of purported miracles outside of
the canonical Christian scriptures—two cures ascribed to Vespasian, one Catholic miracle
reported to have been worked at Saragossa, and some cures ascribed to the influence of the tomb
of the Jansenist Abbe Paris in the early 1700s—and suggests that their affidavits are in various
respects as good as one could wish for. Hume clearly expects his Protestant readers to reject these
stories with disdain. He leaves unstated the obvious conclusion: by parity, his readers should also
reject the miracles of the New Testament.

Setting Protestants and Catholics by the ears over the miracles of later ecclesiastical history was
an old game by Hume’s time, and a small industry had grown up on the Protestant side providing
criteria for sifting the genuine apostolic miracles from their Catholic counterfeits (Leslie
1697/1815, Douglas 1757, Warfield 1918). Hume’s contemporary critics rose to the challenge
and argued vigorously that his descriptions of the alleged “miracles,” Pagan, Catholic, and
Jansenist, distorted the historical sources and were hopelessly one sided (Leland 1755: 102 ff,
Adams 1767: 74 ff, Campbell 1762/1839: 96 ff, Douglas 1757: 96 ff).

Aside from these specific criticisms, one important general line of argument emerges in the
criticisms, articulated well by Adams (1767: 73):

There is a wide difference betwixt establishing false miracles, by the help of a false religion, and
establishing a false religion by the help of false miracles. Nothing is more easy than the former of
these, or more difficult than the latter.

All attempts to draw an evidential parallel between the miracles of the New Testament and the
miracle stories of later ecclesiastical history are therefore dubious. There are simply more
resources for explaining how the ecclesiastical stories, which were promoted to an established
and favorably disposed audience, could have arisen and been believed without there being any
truth to the reports.

3.3 The impact of Hume’s “Of Miracles”

Hume’s critique of the credibility of reported miracles provoked a tidal wave of responses, of
which the most important are Adams (1767), Leland (1755), Douglas (1757), Price (1777), and
Campbell (1762/1839). There is not yet anything approaching a comprehensive survey of these
responses. For limited but still useful historical discussions of Hume and his influence, see
Leland (1755: 47–135), Lechler (1841: 425 ff), Farrar (1862: 148 ff), Stephen (1876: 309 ff),
Burns (1981: 131 ff), Craig (1985), Houston (1994: 49–82), Tweyman (1996), Earman (2000),
and Beauchamp’s introduction to the critical edition of Hume’s Enquiry (Hume 1748/2000).

As Charles Sanders Peirce notes (Peirce 1958: 293), the Humean in-principle argument has left
an indelible impression on modern biblical scholarship. Humean considerations are expressly
invoked in the work of the great German critic David Friedrich Strauss (1879: 199–200),
transformed into one of the “presuppositions of critical history” in the work of the philosopher F.
H. Bradley (1874/1935), rechristened as the “principle of analogy” in the writings of the
theologian Ernst Troeltsch (1913), and endorsed, explicitly or implicitly, in many contemporary
studies of the historical Jesus (Dawes 2001: 97–106) and the New Testament (Ehrman 2003:
228–30). Commitment to something like Hume’s position lies on one side of a deep conceptual
fault line that runs through the discipline of biblical studies.

The Humean objection has also been vigorously contested as destructive not only of miracle
stories but of common sense as well. The 19th century saw a proliferation of satires in which
Humean scruples about accepting testimony for extraordinary tales were applied to the events of
secular history, with consequences that are equally disastrous and humorous (Whately
1819/1874, Hudson 1857, Buel 1894). Whately’s satire, which is the most famous, “establishes”
on the basis of many historical improbabilities that Napoleon never existed but was a mythic
figure invented by the British government to enhance national unity. Each of these satires makes
the same point. One may legitimately require more evidence for a miracle story than for a
mundane story (Sherlock 1729/1843: 55); but in exaggerating this sensible requirement into an
insuperable epistemic barrier, Hume and his followers are applying a standard that cannot be
applied without absurdity in any other field of historical investigation.

A curious feature of recent discussions is that Hume’s critique of reported miracles has itself
come under heavy fire and is now viewed in some quarters as requiring defense. For a range of
views on the matter, see Levine (1989: 152 ff), who maintains that Part 1 contains an argument
but that the argument is a failure, Johnson (1999), who argues that Part 1 is confused and unclear
and that various attempts to clarify it have failed to elicit a compelling line of argument, Earman
(2000), who argues that Part 1 is an “abject failure,” Fogelin (2003), who aims to rehabilitate
Hume against the critiques of Johnson and Earman in particular, and Millican (2013), who argues
vigorously that the interpretation of Hume’s argument offered in Earman (2000) is flawed in
multiple ways. Millican (2011) offers a sympathetic reconstruction of Hume’s critique in the
wider context of Hume’s other metaphysical and epistemological work.

4. Arguments from Miracles

Granting for the sake of argument that a reported miracle, in the sense of an event beyond the
productive capacity of nature, has been established, what follows? Historically, many participants
in the discussion have been ready to grant that, at least when the religious significance of the
event is obvious and the doctrine or claim it ostensibly attests is not otherwise objectionable, the
miracle must have been worked by God and that it provides significant confirmation for the
doctrine or claim. Indeed, the enduring popularity of the argument from miracles underscores the
truth of Butler’s observation that miracles are one of the “direct and fundamental proofs” of
Christianity (Butler 1736/1819: 173).

4.1 Would miracles be evidence for the existence of God?

There are two exceptions to this general acquiescence in the evidential value of miracles. First,
there is a question regarding the identity of the cause. If God alone can work miracles, this is
easily settled; but this claim has been a point of contention in the theological literature, with some
writers (Clarke 1719: 305 ff; Trench 1847) maintaining that lesser, created spirits may work
miracles, while others (e.g. Farmer 1771, Wardlaw 1852, Cooper 1876) vigorously deny this. The
point is of some interest to the evaluation of arguments for miracles, since as Baden Powell
points out, there is a distinction

between an extraordinary fact,—which is a proper matter for human testimony—and the belief in
its being caused by Divine interposition, which is a matter of opinion, and consequently not
susceptible of support by testimony, but dependent on quite other considerations. (Powell 1859:
287–88, following up on a distinction made in Less 1773: 260–62)

Powell is quite right to say that testimony is not the proper source for evidence of the
supernatural nature of the event. But it does not follow that all opinions on the point are equally
reasonable. The very description of the event—and even more, of the context in which it
occurs—might render any naturalistic alternatives non-starters. Whether this is the case will
depend, not on general considerations, but on the details of the case in question.

Second, it is occasionally argued that, contrary to what most philosophers and theologians have
assumed, actual confirmed cases of miracles could not count in favor of the existence of God.
George Chryssides (1975) argues that a miracle, conceived as a violation of a scientific law,
could never be attributed to any agent, divine or otherwise, since the assignment of agency
implies predictability. This bold contention has not attracted many defenders. Gregory Dawes
(2009) pursues a related but more moderate line of argument, urging that it is difficult to meet the
standard necessary to attribute particular events to the personal agency of God. But Dawes does
not present this as an absolute barrier to theistic explanations.

Overall (1985) argues for the more radical contention that a miracle would count as
evidence against the existence of God, on three grounds: (1) if order and harmony are evidence
for the existence of God, then a miracle, which entails a breach in the order and harmony of the
universe, must count against the existence of God; (2) the inevitable controversies over the
identification and authentication of a miracle are an impediment to the growth of scientific
knowledge and philosophical comprehension; and (3) an omnipotent God who does intervene in
His creation would be obliged, on pain of moral defect, to intervene more often and more
evenhandedly than He is supposed to have done in the Christian tradition.

These considerations have not, however, moved many philosophers to endorse Overall’s position.
Argument (1), besides giving a tendentious characterization of a miracle, exemplifies a fallacy in
probabilistic reasoning, assuming that if FF entails ∼E∼E and EE is evidence for HH, then FF is
evidence against HH, which is not in general true. Claim (2) is arguably simply false, as such
controversies do not appear noticeably to have impeded the progress of science or philosophy.
Argument (3) will be effective against a certain sort of theological position, but it is not one that
many believers in miracles actually hold. For further discussion of this issue, see the exchanges
between Larmer and Overall (Larmer 1988: 75–82, Overall 1997, Overall 2003, and Larmer
2004).

4.2 How much would credible miracle reports establish?

In the final analysis, the relevance of background beliefs looms large. To say this is not to
endorse a lazy and unprincipled relativism; rather, the point is that one’s considered rational
judgment regarding the existence and nature of God must take into account far more than the
evidence for miracle claims. That is not to say that they could not be an important or even, under
certain circumstances, a decisive piece of evidence; it is simply that neither a positive nor a
negative claim regarding the existence of God can be established on the basis of evidence for a
miracle claim alone, without any consideration of other aspects of the question.
 For the evidence for a miracle claim, being public and empirical, is never strictly demonstrative,
either as to the fact of the event or as to the supernatural cause of the event. It remains possible,
though the facts in the case may in principle render it wildly improbable, that the testifier is either
a deceiver or himself deceived; and so long as those possibilities exist, there will be logical space
for other forms of evidence to bear on the conclusion. Arguments about miracles therefore take
their place as one piece—a fascinating piece—in a larger and more important puzzle.

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