Afghan Conundrum 1979 - 2019

I. Introduction
“Afghan is a place where empires come to die.” (A. G. Durran)
1. Alexander
2. British
3. Soviet Union
4. America

II. Background
Before 1978, Badshahi Nizaam by King Zahir Shah (1933-1973  Most
peaceful time period (1930-75) because he accommodated people in
nation fabric), on constitution 1964 of Afghanistan. In 1950s, King tried
to bring modernism by aligning Afghanistan to Turkey.
- 52 ethnicity in Afghanistan, with 42% is Pashtun, dominant
population a Pushtun.
1. 1978 PDPA – Saur revolution
 Saur Revolution (or April Revolution or April Coup) a
communist revolution
 Led by the Soviet-backed People's Democratic Party of
Afghanistan (PDPA) against the rule of Afghan President
Mohammed Daoud Khan on 27–28 April 1978. Daoud Khan and
most of his family were killed at the presidential palace.
 Precursor to 1979 Intervention of the Soviets
2. Soviet Intervention (1979-1988)
 Due to Godly nature of Afghan, PDPA feared of Afghan and
requested Soviet to intervene.
 Brezhnev Doctrine: Any threat (international or domestic) to
socialist (communist) rule in any state of the Soviet bloc in
Eastern Europe was a threat to them all, and therefore justifies
the intervention of fellow socialist states.
 Majority of organization i.e. OIC, UN condemn the intervention
 IUM (Islamic Unity of Afghanistan Mujahideen) or (Seven Party
Mujahideen Alliance or Peshawar Seven) was created by
Pakistan, where CIA and ISI, initially, trained 96000
transnational Mujahideen. Against PDPA and the Soviets.
  A call from Imam of Khana Kaba that Godless enemy has
occupied Afghanistan; come forward and we fight with him.
Muslim Mujahideen from all over the world came forward and
were settled in FATA region.
 IUM did not do well up till 1984, then Pakistan requested
America for FIM-92 Stinger missile (MANPADS-Man Portable
Air Defence System)
 In 1988, Soviets were trying to get out of Afghanistan through
some reason/process

3. 1988-1992: Najeebullah Years

 Geneva Accords (14 April 1988): the agreements on the
settlement of the situation relating to Afghanistan, were signed
at the Geneva headquarters of the United Nations, between
Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the United States and the
Soviet Union serving as guarantors
 Pro-Soviet government: Najeebullah (president 1987-1992),
meanwhile in 1991 USSR disintegrated.
 Al-Qaeda (1988) and IUM tried to topple government because
they wanted their supremacy after years of struggle
 Peshawar Accord (26 April 1992): The accord proclaimed an
Afghan interim government “Islamic State of Afghanistan”
which as paralysed right from the start. Because Mujahideen
wanted complete government.
 Islamabad Accord (7 March 1993): was a peace and power-
sharing agreement b/w interim government and Hekmatyar
(current leader of Hezb-e-Islami)

4. 1992-1995 Civil War

 The war between government and its people, i.e. within a
state, is called a civil war
 Opium production, human right violation and rule of lords’ law
are on rise
 A family was raped on check-post, it was a red-line. Taliban
(student) was looked up for help. Mullah Umer attacked the
post with 40 taliban and publically executed.
  Mullah Umer defeated most of the war-lords in Afghanistan in
6 months.
5. 1995-2001 Rise and Fall of Taliban
 Taliban came into power with assistance from Pakistan, 3
countries recognized Afghanistan which were Pakistan, UAE,
Saudi Arabia.
 Pakistan called America to disarmament and de-radicalize the
society as you promised when you helped in radicalizing the
society. To dilute the rigidity government, but America denied.
America was busy in celebrating New World Order (NWO)
 1997, Usama Bin Laden (Al-Qaeda) will acquire nuclear
material and will use it against USA (on symbols of authority)or
else USA must leave Muslim countries.
 Taliban vs. Al-Qaeda: (Usama Bin Laden’s daughter was
married to Mullah Umer). Later Bin Laden settled in Kenya by
agreeing with an unknown party to have their govt. while
certain areas are bin Laden’s. That political party won election
in 1998, was funded by Saudi Binladin Group. Al-Qaeda shifted
to Kenya.
 Ahmed Shah Masood (leader of Northern Alliance – Guerrilla
Commander) was believed as a threat to Al-Qaeda after 9/11
incident, which was not happened yet, because he was against
Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
 Ahmed Shah Masood was killed 2 days before 9/11 incident on
9 Sep 2001. A German News Agency was hired, 2 men came in
Afghanistan in 1st week of September to interview Afghan
Taliban. A dummy interview, motive was to reach Ahmed Shah
Masood. September 6, reached him to have interview, he
denied. They, then, said that they will create a propaganda in
Europe against you because you are not addressing your
narrative.
 They met in a cave with only 2 interviewers, actually khudkush
bomber, a bomb was in the camera. All 5 people died in bomb
blast inside the cave. Al-Qaeda neutralize the threat before
9/11.
III. Post 9/11 Scenario in Afghanistan
1. US Intervention in 2001
  Previously 1992, World Trade Centre was attacked planned by
CIA.
 2896 people killed in 9/11 incident. Pakistan said we will
provide absolute cooperation just provide us the evidence. USA
provided video and photographs which were presented to
Mullah Umer. He asked in America is there punishment on
these types of evidence, American diplomats astonished,
American diplomats said no. Mullah Umer said how I can
punish 100 people on this basis. He demanded
a. Actionable evidence
b. Sharia Rule: will punish them in Afghanistan according to
Sharia Rule, we don’t believe in American Law.
 USA Launched Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF – 7 Oct
2001) for Global War on Terror. Which laid to fall of Taliban
 Americans confused Entry in Afghanistan with Victory.
2. New Puppet Government
 2001-2004 Americans as victorious, formed a puppet
government
 2007 Taliban regrouped, reorganized, remobilize and
rearmament to re-launch operations. We see re-emergence
and resurgence on Taliban
 2011, Obama (Drones in Chief) called 1,40,000 NATO forces,
2,50,000 Afghan National Army launched operation against
NATO which failed.
 “Geography is the mother of Strategy” (Nebola).
2014, Obama said we will leave Afghanistan on killing Usama
Bin Ladin. Ijaz Shah (Home Minister of Pakistan) was alleged of
giving place to Usama Bin Laden, who killed Benazir Bhutto and
slapped Nawaz Sharif.
3. Rise and Rise of Taliban
 Obama’s Talk and Fight Policy: To target their leader along with
dialogue. (Mullah Umer died a natural death, Mullah Akhtar
Mansour was killed in Balochistan)
 2016, leaving Afghanistan
4. Peace Process in Doha
  Qatar (Doha) office was made in 2013 where Afghanistan
leaders are stationed to have peace talk among Afghanistan,
USA and other countries.
 Currently, 8th Round of Doha Peace Process

IV. US – Taliban Talks in Doha

1. Background
US special envoy for Afghan peace process ‘Zalmay Khalilzad’ an
Afghan American diplomat
o Military strategy was failed to there must be political solution
o Trump promised to have electoral campaign is Afghanistan
2. 4-point agenda for peace deal in Afghanistan
1. Counter terrorism assurances
 Good for everyone
2. Troops withdrawal
 No withdrawal timeline. Zalmay Khalilzad, “Nothing is
agreed until everything is agreed”.
 Taliban saying first you go then we will go
3. Intra Afghan dialogues and negotiations
 Taliban says government is a puppet govt., we will not
negotiate because of their legitimacy will increase. We
can negotiate across the board leaders in Afghanistan in
private capacity where govt. can also take part.
 Afghan govt. gave a list of 500 people for negotiation,
Taliban said it’s not a Walima. They said to have to have
atmost 50 individuals without women.
4. Permanent and comprehensive cease-fire
 Taliban saying that unless every US soldier does not
leave Afghanistan, we will not cease-fire even
temporarily.

3. Challenges
 Domestic Issues: Like who is to lead Afghanistan?
 Regional Involvement: India, Pakistan, Iran, America with their
strategic interests
 American Attitude: Talk and Fight Strategy
  Taliban Ambitious: they have no leniency and flexibility
4. Way forward
 NOT with ‘Challenges’
V. Post US withdrawal Scenario
1. Negotiated Withdrawal: to agree on 4-point agenda
 Positive features: Long time peace, peaceful global image of
USA, intra Afghan settlements, who to govern the state,
stability which leads to no interference by any other country.
2. Hastily Withdrawal: Trump is disheartened and wants immediate
withdrawal
 Negative Features: mark as failure of NATO, no viable long
time peace, chances of re-civil war on who to govern, regional
insecurity and greater chances of insurgency in neighbouring
countries,

VI. Conclusion

VII. References
1. Ahmed Rashid: “Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in
Central Asia”
2. Ahmed Rashid: “Decent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure
on Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia”
3. Antonia Giustozzi: “Kuran Kalashnikov and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban
Insurgency in Afghanistan”
4. Dick Camp: “Boots on the ground: The Fight to Liberate Afghanistan
from Al-Qaeda and the Taliban”

NOTES
 Geneva Conventions: To establish the standards of international law
for humanitarian treatment in war after WW2.