TRIBHUVAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING PULCHOWK CAMPUS Thesis No: T20/070 Deriving Threshold Traffic Levels for Feeder Road Upgrading Using HDM-4 by (ee qd 3 Shuva Raj Neupane N éu A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER IN TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING | LALITPUR, NEPAL. NOVEMBER, 2015ABSTRACT Roads are among the most important and the highest paid public assets in most of the countries in the world. Huge amount is invested for construction and maintenance of the road. Proper planning is required for optimizing capital and resources invested for road projects. In context to Nepal, Construction of roads to paved (sealed) level not only determined on basis of economic appraisal but also by vested interest of political persons and influence able agencies. DESIGN STANDARDS FOR FEEDER ROADS (THIRD REVISION), 1997 derived Threshold Traffic Levels for Feeder Road Upgrading using HDM III. Values obtained were valid in then condition and context. There need to be continuous revisions in the values after certain period of time. HDM-4 is more realistic and has incorporated more parameters and universally accepted than HDM III, so the use of it gives realistic figure. As a result of extensive research in many countries, Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4) was developed as a tool for Economic Analysis. HDM-4 makes use of Road Deterioration and Works Effects (RDWE) model to predict the pavement deterioration over the analysis period and the effects of work improvements. Hence HDM-4 was a tool for investigating various maintenance option and computation of VOC. For the research work, the 100 km stretch of feeder road is selected for the analysis in Hilly and Plain regions so that separate standard can be developed different kinds of toads. The study aims at identifying the best threshold traffic level as decision tool for upgrading of feeder road. HDM-4 is data hungry and asks for huge and fine data. Mostly the data are collected from Planning and Design Branch, HMIS Branch of Department of Roads as well as from Maintenance Branch. Keywords: HDM-4, HDM III, Feeder Road, Vehicle Fleet, IRI, VOC, PIPINTRODUCTION 1 Background a developing country like Nepal, roads and road transport play an important role in economic growth. A variety of benefits accrue as a result of the construction and intenance of roads which are utilized by almost all sectors of the economy. The ity of resources and the demand from various sectors competing with each other a typical scenario of a developing country. It is, therefore essential to allocate the e resources in a most judicious manner with a view to achieve optimum cost fits not only amongst various sectors but also among various schemes. feeder roads are important roads of localized nature. These serve the community's de interest and connect District Headquarters, Major economic centres, Tourism tres to National Highways or other feeder roads. They are designated by letter "followed by 3-digit number. (NRS 2070). Feeder Roads are important roads of a jore localized nature than National Highways (NH). Feeder Roads are of secondary ture in the hierarchy of the road network. Feeder Roads are further classified into ‘ecder Roads (Major) and Feeder Roads (Minor). The Feeder Roads (Major) /FRN prise: major links (i.e. with an AADT of over 100 veh/day) between the National ighways (NH); roads linking District Headquarters/Zonal Headquarters to the fational Highways (NH); links from National Highways (NH) to the major places of lustry, tourism, public utilities and power generation (e.g. hydropower), etc. [DESIGN STANDARDS FOR FEEDER ROADS, 1997] ‘A computer program will help in quickening the process. There are ready made packages for carrying out economic analysis viz., “Road Investment Decision Model” (RIDM) developed by the Indian Roads Congress and “Highway Design and ‘Maintenance Model” (HDM-IIl) developed by the World Bank which were in use for Wer two decades for both technical and economic appraisal of road projects with a jew to prepare road investment programs and to analyze road network strategies.adaptable and user friendly software. The scope of the HDM-4 tool has been broadened considerably beyond traditional project appraisals, to provide a powerful system for the analysis of road management and investment alternatives. Emphasis was placed on collating and applying existing knowledge, rather than undertaking major new empirical studies, although some limited data collection has been undertaken. Wherever possible, creative new approaches were developed for applying technical knowledge to the management needs of different countries. In this report, HDM-4 has been discussed with its application for finding out the Total Transportation Cost of representative roads in different geographic locations of different standards with variation of AADT. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Total road transport costs are the sum of the interdependent costs of road construction, road maintenance and the direct costs to road users (vehicle operating costs). Road agency should always focus on “Reduction of Total Transportation Cost”. DOR policy document “DESIGN STANDARDS FOR FEEDER ROADS, 1997” has derived threshold traffic level for feeder road upgrading estimating total transportation cost for different AADT. It was valid for that time. The cost of construction, maintenance and VOC has increased with time and traffic composition varied accordingly. The standard needs periodic revision which is lagging within DOR. 1.3 Research Objectives ‘The main objective of this study is to find out the threshold level of traffic for feeder road upgrading. Specifically this research work has the following objectives: © Determine Threshold Traffic Levels for Feeder Road Upgrading (Gravel Roads to Paved standard) using HDM-4 as a primary tool for economic analysis. * Determine total transportation cost for different surface type and AADT. ‘* Suggest DOR to update department policy document. 1314 Limitation of Study There are certain limitations in the research that it was felt and recommended for future. 15 - The calibration part is out of scope of this study and has been adopted from the report of Priority Investment Plan (PIP) prepared by DOR. Lack of reliable calibration factors, there might be error in the predicted models. HDM-4 requires huge amount of data to be fed in the system prior to its running. Some data are collected from the drivers, mechanics and the owners of the garage. As there are inconsistencies in the information provided by them, the result might be marred accordingly. As the validation of the outcomes of this result takes few years, validating the outcome could not be done. Few maintenance parameters were chosen for study. Addition of other maintenance practice provides more realistic scenario that requires more time and is out of scope of study. Organization of the Report This report is organized into total six chapters. The introduction to the study and the objectives are presented in chapter-1 whereas Chapter-2 gives the detail information regarding theories that are related. The use and handling of HDM-4 software has also discussed in this chapter. Chapter-3 presents the methodology that it was adopted in order to work over the data. Chapter-4 is related with the collection of various data, mainly from the Department of Roads. Analysis part and presentation of the result is in chapter-5. Chapter-6 deals with the conclusion of the work and recommendation for the future.CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction Traffic is the greatest cause of wear of the road, As traffic load increases, cost to maintain the roads also increases. Unmaintained roads lead to increased VOC. At some point, the cost to pave a road would appear to be recovered by savings in maintenance costs. The relationship between AADT and maintenance costs is, however, neither consistent nor straightforward. Therefore, determination of when it is appropriate to pave a road is not a simple matter. [BenchMark Engineers, P.C. “Paving Decisions for Laramie County Roads”] In order to determine the optimum policy for paving roads, it is necessary to first develop reasonable estimates of the various costs of building, operating, and maintaining the roads. Specifically, we must estimate the costs of upgrading unpaved roads and the costs of maintaining and operating paved and unpaved roads. With such information, we could perform an economic analysis of the alternatives and, in principle, select the most economic alternative. “Making informed decisions on [Technical Advisory Panel, University of Minnesota when to upgrade a gravel road”] .d roads. For very low volume 1 roads require grading, ecessary. These costs tually, it appears \d be repaid by Gravel roads have lower construction costs than pave roads, maintenance costs are also relatively low. Gravel and regular addition of gravel. Dust control is often m cantly as traffic volume and weights increase, Eve diture to improve a gravel road by paving it woul shaping, increase signifi that the capital expen Jower maintenance costs. ent of Roads (DOR) is a government agency whose main Purpose isto ‘The Depart snment policies for the roads sub-sector int translate Gove to the general public service orientated institution. restricted to the following provisions. 10 the provision of a service sblic, DOR is therefore a of Nepal, and especially the travelling pu wut is not necessarily ‘The service should comprise bi 15 oe eee© The construction of a basic road network which meets the present road transport needs of the Country in the three essential areas of: long distance transport; collection and distribution; human and social liaison and development. © The maintenance of the network to provide a reasonable level of serviceability for road users at all times and to protect the considerable capital investment made in the roads. © The provision of measures to ensure a reasonable level of safety for all road users including pedestrians. [The DOR Policy] 2.2 Background 2.2.1 Road Construction Road construction cost includes from very beginning of planning of construction. It includes survey, detailed engineering survey and design of highway. It also includes land acquisition cost. Road construction cost includes physical items cost, furnitures and road safety measures. Road is constructed by contractors and supervised by consultants. Road construction cost includes supervision, quality control and different administrative charges. Road construction cost is capital cost. Capital cost includes earthen road construction that includes Track opening, formation of embankment, earthen/ structural drain, retaining structures and cross drainage structure. Cost for upgrading to gravel road includes sub grade preparation and gravelling. Road construction cost also includes upgrading to bituminous road that may be otta seal, surface dressing, asphalt concrete or rigid pavements. It does not include maintenance and VOC. 2.2.2 Road Maintenance Road Maintenance may be defined as the activities carried out to keep the condition of the road as near as to that of newly constructed road. Road maintenance is the series of interdependent activities carried out on and off the road surface with a view to preserve the asset and to maintain its serviceability. 16Planned maintenance is a systematic and efficient application of routine, recurrent and periodic road maintenance so as to preserve the road asset and provide the desired level of service to the road users. 2.2.2a Types of Road Maintenance The road maintenance activities are grouped into following broad types: a) Routine Maintenance b) Recurrent Maintenance ©) Periodic Maintenance 4) Specific Maintenance €) Preventive Maintenance f) Emergency Maintenance 2.2.2b Purpose of Road Maintenance The purpose of road maintenance may be stated as follows Reducing deterioration Lowering vehicle operation cost ii, Keeping the road open iv. To maintain the safety of the road v. To mitigate the environmental issues 2.2.2¢ Road maintenance in case of Nepal Annual Road Maintenance Plan (ARMP) workshop has been working as an established tool for the maintenance activities of the Strategic Road Network (SRN). ‘SRN includes National Highways and Feeder Roads. Maintenance of Urban Road is carried out by Municipality and Rural roads by District Technical Office (DTO). Maintenance budget is allocated by Road Board Nepal (RBN). RBN collects revenue from Road users (Vehicle Toll, Registration Tax, Fuel revenue). RBN allocates 70% of its budget to DOR and rest 30% to municipalities and DTO. The types of 17maintenance and the methods of allocating budget under each maintenance categories are as follows: i) iii) Routine Maintenance: It is generally carried out manually in case of Nepal. There are pre-determined norms for the number of persor/km of the road which is a function of road types (sealed or unsealed) and terrain. The total cost for routine maintenance is obtained from multiplying the number of labors/supervisors per km by daily wage of the labor/supervisor and the total length of the road network. Recurrent Maintenance: Recurrent maintenance is carried out either by contractual procedure or by force account measure. There are certain coefficients for each maintenance activities like patch work, shoulder repair, gabion wall repair, culvert repair works etc for a unit value of each activity. The total cost required for recurrent maintenance is obtained by multiplying the total quantity to be repaired by unit cost. Periodic Maintenance: The method of carrying out periodic maintenance is as follows: ‘Steps of prioritizing for periodic Maintenance: Step-1 Determine the maintenance cycle in years from the following table Traffic Volume Low ‘Moderate High Less than 250 vpd |Between 250-1500 vpd_ |More than 1500 vpd_ Terrain Plains 3 7 6 Roling 7 7 C 6 Hills 6 6 5 Step-2 ‘Determine age correction factor (ACF) based on road condition 18[SDI 00-17, 18-30 34-50 [Condition Good Fair Poor [ACF plus 2 years zero minus 2 years Step-3 Determine traffic index (TG) from the following table Less than 250 vpd |Between 250-1500 vpd More than 1500 vpd index Value TS O16 os os | Step-4 Determine road condition index (RC) from the following table 0.0-1.7 1.8-3.0 3.1-5.0 Good Fair Poor index Value RC 0 03 4 Step-5 Determine strategic importance from the following table Low importance | Medium importance High importance, [index Value SI 0 0.3 06 ‘Time for resealing= Maintenance cycle (from step-1)-Age of surfacing (in years)+age correction factor (step-2) Ranking Index= TG+RC+SI ‘Where, ‘TG= Traffic Index (from step-3) RC= Road condition (from step-4) Si-Strategic Importance (from step-5) 19Roads for periodic maintenance are selected according to their ranking index and the budget is allocated according to availability. v) Specific Maintenance: For the specific maintenance, each office prepares specific maintenance plan according to the requirement of maintenance on the roads under their jurisdiction. On road and off road maintenance works are carried out later according to the budget allocated. vi) Emergency Maintenance: Estimate for emergency maintenance is done based on past experience of budget requirement. The budget is mainly used in reopening of tracks after the slides/washouts. 2.3 Pavement Deterioration Irrespective of the design and construction standards that have been adopted, all road pavements will deteriorate over time. The deterioration is progressive and is influenced by several factors that can be grouped under three main headings:(Road Pavement Management Discussion Paper, MRCU 1995) i) Environmental- terrain, climate and local practices ii) Traffic- volume and axle load iii) Construction- design and construction standards and quality of construction materials and standards. The effect of pavement deterioration is a reduction in the serviceability of the road and an increase in costs: i) to the government through the premature and rapid depreciation of the large capital investment made in the road. ii) to the road user through the higher costs of operating and using vehicles on the road as the pavement surface becomes rougher with increasing deterioration. Loss of serviceability also subjects the road users to considerable discomfort and an increase in journey time which may further add to the cost of using the road. These costs are significant and will justify measures being taken by the road agency to 20reduce them, both in the national interest and especially in the of the road user. At the same time, the measures themselves will result in a cost to the road agency. The objective of the pavement management is therefore to develop and implement a strategy which provides a reasonable level of service to the road user at a minimum cost to the agency. Since vehicle operating costs constitute around 75% to 95% of total road transport costs for traffic levels above 250 ADT (Road Pavement Management Discussion Paper, MRCU 1995), this objective can be expressed by equation 1 as follows: Me< (——-VOCI-VOC2)... equation 1 Where MC= the discounted costs per km of the measures adopted to provide a serviceable road over time “t” VOCIE= the discounted vehicle operating costs per km on the road over time “t” without the measures. VOC2= the discounted vehicle operating costs per km on the road over time “t” with the measures. The prime concer of the road agencies say Department of Roads shall be in minimizing VOC2 and therefore maximizing vehicle operating cost savings (VOC1- VOC2), while minimizing the costs (Mc) to the government. This concern leads the concemed road agency to an optimal mix and timing of reconstruction, rehabilitation and planned maintenance activities on the roads. 2.4 Deterioration Characteristics and Condition Parameters The starting point of pavement management is to understand the characteristics of pavement deterioration and to determine a means of describing and measuring, as objectively as possible, the condition of the pavement. We shall then be in a position to define the nature and extent of the problem we have to address. 241 Deterioration Characteristics 4 2 6 4 d 21It is needless to say that all road pavements deteriorate over time. However, the deterioration characteristics of unpaved (earthen/gravel) and paved (bitumen) roads follow a very different patter and therefore require a different approach to their management. (Road Pavement Management Discussion Paper, MRCU 1995) Unpaved Roads With unpaved roads the deterioration path is both linear and rapid and offers little choice in the selection of management options. If maintenance is deferred, the consequences become immediately apparent; the pavement deteriorates at a fairly uniform rate until very high levels of roughness are reached and pavement failure occurs. The action of traffic causes corrugation and rutting and when combined with rainfall, creates deeper ruts, potholes, gullies and washouts. In dry weather, the bond within the surface material is weakened resulting in the loss of fine materials as dust and the eventual disintegration of the pavement. Surface roughness, the main factor affecting vehicle operating costs and hence serviceability, is controlled by grading the pavement surface and particular attention should be given to this activity. Additionally, regravelleing will be needed to replace surface material lost from gravel roads. If the road is allowed to disintegrate, reconstruction will be required to restore serviceability for the road user. With routing drainage maintenance only, unpaved roads in Nepal are unlikely to remain serviceable for more than 3 years (two monsoons) Paved Roads The progression of deterioration of paved roads with minimal maintenance follows a distinctly non-linear path which approximates to the curve shown in figure 2.1. From the curve, it can be seen that deterioration essentially passes through three phases. Phase I- can extended to two-thirds the life of the road and is a period of limited visible deterioration with good serviceability and a margin increase in roughenss. Pavements in this phase can be considered in good condition and deterioration where apparent, is usually limited to minor cracking, the occasional potholes and edge damage. 2Phase 2- visible deterioration now apparent and increasing markedly towards the end of the phase with a noticeable rise in the level of roughness; serviceability varying from reasonable to poor. Pavements in this phase can be considered in fair to poor condition and deterioration is characterized by extensive cracking, potholes, wheeltrack rutting, edge and shoulder damage. Phase 3- is the critical stage in the life of the pavement represented by increasingly rapid deterioration leading to radical structural failure of the pavement. Roughness reaches unacceptable levels during this phase resulting in minimal and ultimately total loss of serviceability. Pavements in this condition are no longer able to carry their design loads and can be considered in very poor to failed condition. During phase 1, the road can be kept in a serviceable (good/fair) condition with routine and recurrent maintenance activities alone (it should be remembered that routine drainage activities are essential for any management approach), Phase 2 is reached when deterioration has advanced to the point where periodic maintenance (resealing) is needed. At this point, resealing and continued routine/recurrent maintenance activities will extend the life of the road and keep the pavement in a good to fair condition until such time as traffic loading and the age of the road results in a need for strengthening (structural overlay). This is the start of phase 3 and the application of a structural overlay will reduce roughness to new pavement levels and increases pavement strength to meet traffic requirements for many more years. A new pavement cycle therefore begins which effectively returns to the starting point of phase 1. Provided adequate routine, recurrent and periodic maintenance activities are undertaken, a paved road should rarely require costly reconstruction. Axle load above design level will have a similar effect. If strengthening is then omitted, phase 3 is reached and reconstruction in inevitable. It is interesting to note that in Nepal where, generally, maintenance has been minimal and phase 1 to phase 2 with decreasing serviceability and a major reduction and measuring pavement condition which takes account of the deterioration characteristics. There are 23essentially four primary measures of pavement condition (Road Pavement Management Discussion Paper, MRCU 1995) Figure 2.1: Illustrative Deterioration of Paved Roads Over Time 2.4.2 Pavement condition measurement parameters Prior to having a maintenance strategy, it is necessary to have some means of defining ‘and measuring pavement condition which takes account of the deterioration .s. There are essentially four primary measures of pavement condition characteri (Road Pavement Management Discussion Paper, MRCU 1995) i) Surface roughness ii) Surface distress iii) Structural capacityiv) Pavement texture (friction) Variations are ‘ible ii es riations are possible in these measures depending on the stage of development of the network, the i i network, the importance of the particular road under consideration an hence, the level of management information required. However, all the measures have a to provide a means of determining how well the the road. A common objective, which i performing and meeting the serviceability requirements of t pavement, brief description of the measures and the way in which they are being introduced by the Department of Roads is set out under the headings below. Surface Roughness pavement condition, roughness of the pavement surface is to the road user. As the pavement deterio Je and results in and increase in vehicle Of all the measures of probably of the greatest concern surface becomes rougher and less serviceabl sts, Relationships have been establishes rates, the operating, co: 4 between pavement roughness ing vehicle on the pavement and these relationships have been and the cost for operat erating cost model specific to Nepal incorporated into a vehicle ¢ systems are available for measuring roughness ranging from the more to the relatively inexpensive response 1YPe 1) in meters/km is used to provide ts, The DOR, Planning and of the strategic road ation is held on Vario faser_profilometers national Roughness Index (RT ding roughness measurement jing annual roughness surveys 1p integrator and the inform sophisticates | instruments. The Inte ‘a common scale for recor branch has been conduct Design ing a vehicle mounted bum network by us the HMIS central database. Surface Distress portance to maintenance persons 2S it provides the ration and should trigger some form of the Ne es ocemniadatil ress is of particular im Surface dist ion of pavement deterio first visual indicat remedial action. The ch in the following table. naracteristics vary betwe' 25Although fully automated equipment is now available for gathering distress information, this can only be justified for large and extensively trafficked networks which is not the present case in Nepal. The normal approach is to quantify some or all of the surface distress characteristics by means of a visual examination. The results are then combined into a numerical index from O=good to 5=poor. This is the approach adopted by the DOR Planning and Design branch for conducting annual distress surveys of the SRN. Structural Capacity ‘The structural capacity of a pavement is the measure of a pavement’s ability to carry the design loading. As commercial traffic loads are applied, the pavement becomes progressively weaker until strengthening is carried out or failure occurs. Surface distress and roughness are often, but not necessarily, an indicator of reduced structural capacity and a more accurate means of measuring pavement strength is required. The Structural Number (SN) which is related to the California Bearing Ration (CBR) and the thickness of the individual pavement layers, and pavement deflection are the normal measures of pavement strength with the SN being the most statistically significant. Non-destructive testing in corporating deflection measurements is the most common technique used to assist in evaluating the structural capacity of the pavement. Deflection measurements can be related empirically to future performance and total expectancy and a relationship exists between deflection and Structural Number. Pavement Texture ‘The measurement of pavement texture or friction is principally concerned with safety ‘on paved roads. Under the action of traffic and climate, the road surface loses its texture resulting in reduced skid resistance especially in wet condition. A measurement of pavement friction is therefore necessary to provide an indication of hazardous conditions for traffic so that remedial action, usually in the form of resealing, can be taken. 26The ability of a pavement to provide skid resistance is measured in terms of a Sideways Force Coefficient (SFC) and Sensor Measured Texture Depth (SMTD). The SFC is concemed with the effect of micro texture and the SMTD with coarse or macro texture of the pavement surface. The SMTD is of particular importance for high-speed roads. 2.5 Introduction to HDM-4 The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM-III), developed by the World Bank (Harral et al, 1987; Watanatada et al, 1988), has been used for over two decades to combine technical and economic appraisals of road investment projects, and to analyse strategies and standards. An international study has been carried out to extend the scope of the HDM-III model, and to provide a harmonised systems approach to road management, with adaptable and user-friendly software tools. This has resulted in the development of the Highway Development and Management Tool (HDM-4) (Kerali 2000, Odoki and Kerali 2000). The scope of the HDM-4 tool has been broadened considerably beyond traditional project appraisals, to provide a powerful system for the analysis of road management and investment alternatives. Emphasis was placed on collating and applying existing knowledge, rather than undertaking major new empirical studies, although some limited data collection has been undertaken. Wherever possible, creative new approaches were developed for applying technical knowledge to the management needs of different countries. 27INPUTS MODEL OUTPUTS Vehicle type. volume, yrowth, loading. physical parameters 7 tern. prvpiation road Start of analysis lop eomety pavement shart, nico g Pavement type strength, age, Cracking. mvelling. potholes, nt condition, ad ESAL Rosd Deterioration slept, faulting (paved: wravel thickness (unpaved): roughness G Road geometry and roughness: Fuel, Iobrcant tyres, maintenance, vehicle speed. type: congestion Road User Efiects fined costs, speed. travel time, road parameters: unit costs user cost, Rood works stundards and Reset cracking, ravelling.pot- strategies holes, rutdepth (paved gravel Werks Effects thickness (unpaved): roughness. works quantities and agency costs Gg Road geometry and surice Social and Levels of emissions and energy texture, vehicle characteristics Environmental Eifecs used, and numberof accidents Costs andl benefits inching Economic Analysis ‘exogenous benefits Developmental aiden, environmental and other exoyenous coss andl benefits Total costs by component: net Return to start of analysis oop | present values and rates of retum by section Figure 2.2: Structure of HDM-4(Source: Henry et al., 2002) 28Data Managers Analysis Tools File Converter Ss transfer data ‘to external systems RUE: RoadUserEnects ‘SEE. Safety, Energy and Environmental | PMS: Pavement ManagemenSystem Figure: 2.3: HDM-4 Architecture (Source: Henry et al., 2002) Functions and Cycles When considering the HDM-4 applications, it is convenient to view the highway management process in terms of the following functions (Robinson et al, 1988): Programming Preparation Operations 2.6.1 Planning This involves an analysis of the road system as a whole, typically requiring the preparation of long term, or strategic, planning estimates of expenditure for road development and preservation under various budgetary and economic scenarios. 29Predictions may be made of expenditure under selected budget heads, and forecasts of highway conditions in terms of key indicators, under a variety of funding levels. The physical highway system is usually characterized at the planning stage by lengths of road, or percentages of the network, in various categories defined by parameters such as road class or hierarchy, traffic flow/capacity, pavement and physical condition. The results of the planning exercise are of most interest to senior policy makers in the road sector, both political and professional. Work will often be undertaken by a planning or economics unit within a road agency. 2.6.2. Programming This involves the preparation, under budget constraints, of multi-year road works and expenditure programmes in which those sections of the network likely to require maintenance, improvement, or new construction, are identified in a tactical planning exercise. The programming activity produces estimates of expenditure, under different budget heads, for different treatment types and for different years for each road section. Budgets are typically constrained, and a key aspect of programming is to prioritize works to find the best value for money in the case of a constrained budget. Typical applications are the preparation of a budget for an annual or rolling multi-year work programme for a road network, or sub-network. Programming activities are normally undertaken by managerial-level professionals within a road agency, perhaps ina planning or a maintenance department. 2.6.3 Preparation This is the short-term planning stage where road schemes are packaged for implementation. At this stage, designs are refined and prepared in more detail; bills of quantities and detailed costing are made, together with work instructions and contracts. Typical preparation activities are: the detailed design of an overlay scheme; the detailed design of major works, such as a junction or alignment improvement, lane addition, etc. For these activities, budgets will normally already have been approved. Preparation activities are normally undertaken by relatively junior professional staff and technicians in a technical department of a road agency, and by contracts and procurement staff. 302.6.4 Operations These activities cover the on-going operation of a road agency. Decisions about the management of operations are made typically on a daily or weekly basis, including the scheduling of work to be carried out, monitoring in terms of labour, equipment and materials, the recording of work completed, and the use of this information for monitoring and control. Activities are normally focused on individual road sections with measurements often being made at a relatively detailed level. Operations are normally managed by sub-professional staff, including works supervisors, technicians, clerks of works, and others. 2.7 Management Function The highway management process as a whole can, therefore, be considered as a cycle of activities that are undertaken within each of the management functions of planning, programming, preparation and operations. This is summarized in Table 2 and provides the framework within which HDM-4 needs to be considered. 31Table 2.1: Role of HDM-4 within the Management Cycle Management function HDM-4 Application Examples of common descriptions Planning Strategic analysis system Strategy Analysis ‘Network planning system Pavement management system Programming | Programme analysis system Programme Analysis Pavement management system Budgeting system Preparation Project analysis system Pavement management system Project Analysis Bridge management system Pavement/overlay design system Contract procurement system 2.8 HDM-4 Analytical Framework The HDM-4 analytical framework is based on the concept of pavement life cycle analysis. This is applied to predict the following over the life cycle of a road pavement, which is typically 15 to 40 years (Kerali, 2000): Road deterioration * Road work effects © Road user effects * Socio - Economic and Environmental effects 32The impacts of the road condition, as well the road design standards, on road users are measured in terms of road user costs, and other social and environmental effects. Road user costs comprise: * Vehicle operation costs (fuel, tyres, oil, spare parts, vehicle depreciation, utilization, etc.), * Costs of travel time - for both passengers and cargo, due to road condition and traffic congestion (Hoban, 1987), and ‘© Costs to the economy of road accidents (ie., loss of life, injury to road users, damage to vehicles and other roadside objects). z Roughness Time (years) or Traffic Loading Figure 2.4 Concept of Life-cycle analysis in HDM-4 The social and environmental effects comprise vehicle emissions, energy consumption, traffic noise and other welfare benefits to the population served by the roads. Although the social and environmental effects are often difficult to quantify in monetary terms, they can be incorporated within the HDM-4 economic analyses if quantified externally. It should be noted that in HDM-4, road user effects can be calculated for both motorised transport (motorcycles, cars, buses, trucks, etc.) and non-motorised transport (bicycles, human powered tricycles, animal pulled carts, 33tc.). Figure 2 illustrates the impact of road condition (represented in terms of the IRI) on the costs of different modes of road transport. eso {att Onc Van soo e 20 erga Tuck 2 aes 2 Ate Trek + Traer ‘Road User Cost par Veh-em (hm) | 19 30 ra Figure 2.5: Effect of Road Condition on Vehicle Operating Costs for Rolling Terrain Road User Costs in HDM-4 are calculated by predicting physical quantities of resource consumption and then multiplying these quantities by the corresponding user specified unit costs. It is necessary to ensure that the vehicle resource quantities predicted are in keeping with the range of values observed in the area of application. Economic benefits from road investments are then determined by comparing the total cost streams for various road works and construction alternatives against a base case (without project ot do minimum) alternative, usually representing the minimum standard of routine maintenance. HDM-4 is designed to make comparative cost estimates and economic analyses of different investment options. It estimates the costs for a large number of alternatives year-by-year for a user-defined analysis period. All future costs are discounted to the specified base year. In order to make these 34 150comparisons, detailed specifications of investment programmes, design standards, and maintenance alternatives are needed, together with unit costs, projected traffic volumes, and environmental conditions. 35CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Description of study area ‘The research work will be limited to the analysis of 100 km stretch of feeder roads in Hilly and Terai (Plain) region of Country. The data required will be collected mostly from the Department of Roads, Highway Management and Information System. Program level analysis will be conducted on HDM-4 in the basis of economic analysis. 3.2. Methodology adopted To use HDM-4, data is recorded as road network, vehicle fleet and work standards for all the sections of the selected stretch of road. Here in this report, it is presented what data is required and finally how to get output For creating road network, road sections — Basic, Pavement details, Geometry and condition of pavements are entered in the HDM-4 road network. After this giving the details of vehicles moving on these roads like Base type, No. of wheels, No. of axles, ‘Tyre type, Tyre retread cost, ESAL, Vehicle cost (economic & financial), vehicle fleet is created. Then after, Work standards (maintenance activities) are given into the HDM-4 workspace. For each link various different maintenance alternatives are set for different condition of AADT. Project analysis is done with sensitivity analysis for various condition of ADT. Sensitivity analysis is done for different range of ADT. Now program is to run and if no error found report is generated for output results. If error found it is to be corrected for error and then run.HDM-4 Report gives Cost stream and Economic Evaluation that includes Road agency and user cost strams (Discounted). Economic analysis summary is recorded in terms of NPV/Cost value. 36Le syooforg AemysiHy 403 [apo stsAqeuY pue uoNENjeAg sWoUoDG 405 LEYS MOLY :z"¢ BANS pouad syshjeue 404 sannewsaye wage Uo ssauy8nos anne|nwiny uo paads aiming sannewany suonenba pasapisuos sajaiyon suonenb3 sennewayy quasayip Bude Leh ‘moy-paads lle Jo spaads Bunsixg uomesoyayag ssauygnoy lle uo ssauygnos 112) pue asiy “ya8uay ‘ya 0/94 UDAI St SISKTPUE o1uLOUOD 40} UTBIBord axp Jo YDMO},TRADE ypea soy 3500/AdN anuad se sraBuassed 40 9uIR janedL “OT 1800 uonersaideg 53809 pants aseai5 anoge| soueuaquieW “¢ suedaieds -z end “1 (sexe Buipnjxa) 4294 yoea 404 sannewiaye 12 40} 51509 1859 peoy ue uopenjeng 21WoUODS 10} s1e49 Mold Z°E BANBLY (payipow 8 S861 ‘o1BuIYa wou pardopy}siaafosg AemyaIH 405 FePOW sishjeuy ry) UBtsop jo seah yoe ‘asedwog eae soy 24yen aimng ¥ re eae ea rea oueuaiuiew uonansasue uaisaq anol5 ToapouuoD pue aunjon ayer quasarg3.3. Fitting data in HDM-4 Structure The workspace of HDM-4 can be divided mainly in three segments namely input data segment, application options data segment and configuration data segment, All the data of pavement, vehicle fleet and work standards are fed in their respective data segment. ~ oe — == Configuration Data Figure 3.3: Fitting of data in HDM-4 structure. 3.3.1 Road Network In HDM-4, Road Network stores details of the road that we have wished to analyze. The road network consists of a number of sections. A section typically corresponding to an identifiable length of road, 3.3.2 Vehicle Fleet Vehicle fleet is used to store detail of the vehicle to be included in HDM analysis. It consists of number of vehicle types. Each vehicle type represents a class of vehicle in traffic mix being modeled. 3.3.3 Motorized Vehicle Following vehicles are taken in the analysis under the motorized vehicle category * Car © Medium truck 39* Medium bus * Utilities © Motor Cycle 3.3.4 Maintenance and Improvement Standards In HDM-4, maintenance and improvement standards are used to represent the target or level of condition and response that you aim to achieve. Maintenance standards define the maintenance works required to maintain the target level. Each maintenance standard consists of set of one or more work items. Each works item is, defined in terms of the road surface class to which it applies, an intervention level, an operation type (eg, Reseal, overlay etc) and the resultant effect on the pavement. 3.3.5. Analysis period The main objective of the economic analysis presented in this report is to compute the NPV/Cost ratio for the investment alternatives made on the road sections. The various costs incurred on the development of the road sections are computed over a period of five years and also the economic benefits that accrue during the same period. 3.3.6 Discount Rate Discount rate is taken as 12% 40CHAPTER FOUR: DATA COLLECTION 4.1 Introduction Secondary data from DOR, Planning and Design Branch are used for the maintenance planning. The data are collected in various formats and information is gathered through interviews! discusstions conducted with different engineers/ senior divisional engineers of Department of Roads. 4.2 Details of Data Collection 4.2.1 Road Section -Basies/Geometry The road Section Basics consists of road data namely Link ID, link name, speed flow type, traffic flow pattern, road class, climate zone, surface class, calibration item, length, width and shoulder width. The following road link characteristics will be input in the model. Table 4.1: Road Link Characterstics S.No. | Link Characterstics Unit Hilly Flat 1 Link Length km 100 100 2 | Average Curvature Degreeikm | 200(NRS SO(NRS 2070) 2070) 3 | Average Rise and Fall Metre/km 60 1S 4 | Rainfall Metrelyear | 0.21 021 3 | Carriageway Width Metre 55 [55 (earth/gravel) 6 | Carriageway Width Metre 3.75(NRS__| 3.75 (NRS (paved) 2070) 2070) 7 | Total Shoulder Width Metre 1.0 25 (paved) 8 | Effective Lane 10 10 4.2.2, Road Section Condition 41The road section condition data consists of road roughness value, IRI, expressed in nvkm, area of structural cracks(%), thermal cracks (%), raveled area (%), potholes (no/km), edge break (m2/km), rut depth (mm), texture depth (mm) and drainage condition in addition to link ID and link name as per DOR Database. Gravel Road: the initial roughness is taken as 6,000 mm/km (BI). * Bitumen Road: the initial roughness assuming surface dressing is taken as 4,500 mnv/km (BI). 4.2.3 Road Section -Pavement The road section-pavement data consists of calibration item, surface thickness, last construction year and year of last surfacing among others as per DOR Database. 4.2.5. Vehicle Fleet-Traffic Data The classified traffic count data are collected from the department of Roads PIP 2007. Table 4.2: Traffic Composition Vehicle Class | Car(%) | Utility(%) | Medium Motor Medium Truck(%) | Cycle (%) | Bus(%) Hills 3 16 4 36 21 Plains 8 20 13 6 3 4.2.6 Vehicle Fleet- Basic The vehicle Fleet basis data consists of name of vehicle, base type, number of wheels, number of axles, tyre type, tyre base recaps, tyre retread cost (%), annual km, annual work hours, average life, private use (%), passengers, ESALF, operating weight and file model as per DOR Database. Table 4.3: Economic Costs S.No. | Particulars Unit Cost (Nrs) ] 1. _ | Fuel (Diesel) Tir. 100 2. | Lubricating Oi1 Ltr, 300 3. | Tyre Replacement Single 9500 4. | Maintenance Labour Hour 30 5. | Crew Wages Hour 5 6 | Annual interest % 6 7. [Passenger working time | Hour 12 424.2.7, Maintenance Standards Maintenance and Improvement Standards Periodic maintenance (resurfacing) options followed current DoR practice. Most of the road links are of surface dressing while others are that of asphalt pavement. Ata certain level of deterioration it is impractical to reseal as this has little effect on roughness. In these case, DOR normally scarifies and reshapes the existing pavement, adds a new layer of granular base and new surfacing. The maintenance standards are set after discussion with the maintenance experts of DOR as well as reviewing the previous reports. Table 4.4a: Maintenance policy Routine and Recurrent Traffic Vol. Gravel Road Bitumen Road 30 VPD “Grading once/yr. = Patching 0.5% surface area per yr. -Spot regravelling 5% surface area per yr. -Routine maintenance. Routine maintenance 100 VPD ~Grading once/yr. ~ Patching 0.5% surface area -Spot regravelling 5% surface | Pet ¥™ area per yr. -Routine maintenance. -Routine maintenance 150VPD ~Grading once/yr. = Patching 0.5% surface area -Spot regravelling 5% surface | PTT area per yr. -Routine maintenance. -Routine maintenance 43Table 4.4b: Maintenance Policy Periodic Maintenance ‘Traffic Vol. Gravel Road Bitumen Road 50 VPD “Regravelling Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. -Regravelling Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. ~ Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. - Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. 100 VPD -Regravelling Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. -Regravelling Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. > Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. - Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. 150 VPD -Regravelling Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. -Regravelling Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. ~ Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. - Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. 200VPD_ -Regravelling Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. -Regravelling Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. ~ Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Hilly Terrain every 5 yrs. - Resurfacing (SBST) Roads in Flat Terrain every 6 yrs. 4.2.8 Unit Costs Table 4.4 shows the unit costs of road works adopted for the HDM analyses. These are simplified rates, averaged across districts from east to west, derived from unit rate analyses and compared with recent contract prices. The detailed calculation for unit cost of maintenance is presented in appendix 1 and 2.Table 4.4: Unit Costs of Roadwork Cost Item it > ‘os Unit Roads in Hilly terrain | Roads in Plain terrain ' Economic | Financial | Economic | Financial Spot regravelleing [NR/cum | 2,942.43 3,198.29 2,548.40 2,770.00 Regravelleing NR/cum | 2,499.60 | 2,716.95 2,065.40 2,245.00 Grading NR/km | 12,320.00 [13,391.30 | 12,320.00 | 13,391.30 Patching NRsqm | _757.66 823.54 757.66 823.54 Resealing NR/sq m| 474.65 515.92 474.15 515.38 Routine NB/km [111,401.10 [121,088.15 | 47,128.68 | 51,226.83 Maintenance (E) Routine NR/km 111,401.10 [121,088.15 | 47,128.68 | 51,226.83 Maintenance (G) Routine NR/km | 74,267.40 | 80,725.43 | 50,553.00 | 54,948.91 Maintenance (BT) Earthern Road NR/km | 6,512,400.00 3,774,000.00 Construction Upgrading Earthem |NR/km | 2,694,707.57 1,445,780.00 Gravel Upgrading Gravel | NR/km _ | 5,787,500.00 8,187,500.00 Bitumen 4.2.9 Calibration factors of HDM-4 It is important that prior to using HDM-4 for the first time in any country, the system should be configured and calibrated for local use. Since HDM-4 is designed to be used in a wide range of environments, configuration of HDM-4 provides the facility to customize system operation to reflect the norms that are customary in the environment under study. Calibration of HDM-4 is intended to improve the accuracy of predicted pavement performance and vehicle resource consumption. The pavement deterioration models incorporated in HDM-4 were developed from results of large field experiments conducted in several countries. Consequently, the default equations in HDM-4 if 45used without calibration, would predict pavement performance that may not accurately match that observed on specific road sections. A fundamental assumption made prior to using HDM is that the pavement performance models will be calibrated to reflect the observed rates of pavement deterioration on the roads where the models are applied. Calibration of HDM-4 to the local condition has a big scope of work in itself and cannot be carried out under this thesis work. All the calibration factors are adopted as per Priority Investment Plan (PIP) prepared by DOR. 4.2.10 Climate Zone Since HDM-4 can be used under wide range of temperature and climate condition, it shall be calibrated to climate zone most like to in Nepal to make the result more reliable. The data for climate zone as per DOR DatabaseCHAPTER FIVE: RESULT 5.1 Introduction Analysis in HDM-4 was conducted with the maintenance options and their representative cost. Blacktop road at hilly region gets periodic maintenance (SBSD) once in 5 years. Routine and Tecurrent maintenance is done annually. Blacktop road at plain region gets periodic maintenance once in 6 years, Routine and recurrent maintenance is done annually. Gravel roads periodic maintenance in hilly regions in every 5 years and 6 years in plain region. Routine and recurrent maintenance is done annually. Analysis was done for Period of five years. Project analysis was conducted with sensitivity to AADT, 5.2 Presentation of Result Table 5.1 Total transportation cost of gravel roads hills Capital cost | Periodic T Reourent [Vehicle AADT oo Maintenance | Maintenance | Operating | Total Cost (PM) | Cost (RM) | Cost (VOC) 0 920.71 199.66 147.67 0 | 1268.04 50 920.71 199.66 173.46 252.55 | 1546.38 100 920.71 199.66 199.26 315.59 | 1835.22 150 920.71 199.66 225.05 787.00 | 2132.42 200 920.71 199.66 250.85 1064.26 | 2435.48 250 920.71 199.66 276.64] 1,344.65 | 2741.66 300 920.71 199.66 302.43 1629.13 [3051.93Table 5.2 Total transportation cost of Blacktop roads hills [ | Capital cost. | Pet Odie] Recurrent | Vehicle ] AADT (cc) Maintenance | Maintenance | Operating | Total | Cost (PM) | Cost (RM) | Cost (VOC) | | 1499.5 106.4 303 0] 1636.2 | 50 1499.5 | 106.4 303 8.59 | 1844.79 | 100 1499.5 106.4 303 417.63 | 2053.83 150 1499.5 106.4 303 627.14 | 2263.34 200 1499.5 106.4 303 837.12 | 2473.32 250 1499.5 106.4 303 1047.59 | 2683.79 300 | 1499.5 106.4 303 1258.56 | 2894.76 | Graph 5.2.1 Total transportation cost of roads hills ceNCnTtIS Saeco nET —Linea el Hills) — Linear (Blacktop Hills) 48Table 5.3 Total transportation cost of gravel roads Plain apr | Covi cost Mone ie a ) faintenance | Operating Total Cost (PM) | Cost(RM) | Cost (VOC) 0 521.98 176.59 77.24 0 775.81 50 521.98 176.59 89,25 195.46 983.281 100 521.98 176.59 101.19 399.06 1198.82 150 521.98 176.59 113.17 608.95 1420.69 200 521.98 176.59 125.15 823.72 1647.44 250 521.98 176.59 137.13 1,040.19 1875.89 300 521.98 176.59 149.11 1259.59 2107.27 350 521.98 176.59 161.08 1,481.37 2341.02 400 521.98 176.59 173.06 1705.17 2576.8 450 521.98 176.59 185.04 1,930.70 2814.31 Table 5.4 Total transportation cost of Blacktop roads Plain Periodic | Recurrent ] Vehicle Aap | “PH! °°5 | sfaintenance | Maintenance | Operating Total 2 Cost (PM) | Cost (RM) | Cost (VOC) 0 1340 94.76 233 0 1458.06 50 1340 94.76 23.3 136.51 1594.57 100 1340 94.76 233 273.22, 1731.28 150 1340 94.76 233 410.187 1868.247 200 1340 94.76 23 347.44 2005.5 250 1340 94.76 23.3 685.03 2143.09 300 1340 94.76 233 822.99 2281.05 350 1340 94.76 a 961.36 2419.42 400 1340 94.76 23 1100.2 2558.26 450 1340 94.76 = 1239.52 2697.58 49Graph 5.2: Total transportation cost of roads P| roads Plain 1500) Sern bay Pied art To —Linear (Gravel Plain) pees Rte cc eer) aa 200 etn) ol AADT Table 5.5 Threshold traffic for feeder road upgrading Upgrading stage Threshold Traffic Hilly Region Plain Region Gravel to Bitumen surface (DBSD). 200 395 50CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusion The main objective of this research was to find out threshold traffic for feeder road upgrading. For achieving the above-mentioned objective, the methodology based on the literature reviewed, an analysis was conducted using HDM-4 as a tool for investment choices. Based on the findings of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn. 1. Pavement should be upgraded to Blacktop DBSD then AADT is more than 200 in hills and 395 in plain. 2. For low traffic road it is uneconomical to seal and for heavy traffic road it is economical to seal. Recommendations The recommendations that have emerged from this study are as follows: 1. Road Upgrading should be done after detail economic analysis. 2. DOR shall institutionalize HDM-4 in the organization so as to use it as a tool for investment choices. 3. HDM--4 is a data hungry tool and requires a large volume of data. The outcome of the analysis largely depends on the quality of the data fed into the system. DOR shall focus on collecting the data for HDM purpose also rather than just for scheduled maintenance planning, 4, Calibration of HDM-4 to the local condition is a crucial part. The DOR shall initiate for the calibration and validation of the HDM-4 for the use in Nepal. 51REFERENCES _ | overnment of Nepal, Ministry of Work and ‘Transport, Department of R « " ‘oads, “DESIGN STANDARDS FOR FEEDER ROADS (THIRD REVISION) August 1997, Statistics of Strategic Road Network, 2013/14 (SSRN 2013/14) “al Colliera, Martina Kirchbergera, Mans Soderberb, “The cost of road infrastructure in developing countries” DOR, Sector Wide Road Programme (SWRP) & Priority Investment Plan (PIP), April 2007 ‘artis wertreraeeat ser Pruteoait ara wat wat, DOTM Prof. S. L. Dhingra, “Economic & Financial Evaluation of Transportation Project” BenchMark Engineers, P.C. ,“Paving De: Roads” ns for Laramie County Jaya Lakshmi Uradhanda , “Study of HDM-4: An Application to Indian Conditions” Suresh Poudel, "Maintenance Planning of East-West Highway” Henry R Kerali The University of Birmingham, UK “The Role of HDM-4 in Road Management” Technical Advisory Panel, University of Minnesota “Making informed decisions on when to upgrade a gravel road” Integrated Annual Road Maintenance Plan, 2070-71 Nepal Road Standard, 2070 ‘The cost of road infrastructure in developing countries Scott Shuler, Associate Professor, Colorado State University “Recommended Criteria in the Decision Process for Paving Unsurfaced Roadways” Government of Nepal, Ministry of Work and Transport, Department of Roads, July 1995, The DOR strategy, 1995 Road Pavement Management Discussion Paper, MRCU 1995 Government of Nepal, Ministry of Work and Transport, Department of Roads, December 2001 “ROAD USER COST”, Working Paper, MRCU -e