Anna,

Geno y Lara

GEOPOLITICS

SESSION 2. MACKINDER’S HEARTLAND THEORY

MACKINDER’S HEARTLAND THEORY

Mackinder
Mackinder was an English geographer and academic politician. He was the director of the London School of Economics and
was considered the founding father of geopolitics as an independent discipline. He influenced US foreign policy during the
end of the Cold War. He created a theory in 1904 about political history as a continuing struggle between land and sea
power, the continental power being the ultimate winner.

Mackinder interpreted the world historical processes based on the idea that the world was inherently divided into isolated
areas each of which had a special function to perform. On the “Geographical Pivot of History,” he stated that world’s
terrestrial surface was segmented into three basic geographical regions:
• The World-Island, comprising the interlinked continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa. This was the largest, most
populous, and richest of all possible land combinations.
• The offshore islands, including the British Isles and the islands of Japan.
• The outlying islands, including the continents of North America, South America, and Australia.

Mackinder relied on the interlinking of continents to come up with the dichotomy whereby interlinked continents were
classified in a common region. According to Mackinder, the World-Island was made up of Europe, Asia, and Africa. World-
Island was the largest of the three regions, accounting for two-thirds of the earth’s terrestrial surface and home to about
87.5% of the world’s population. World-Island was also the richest of the three world regions in resources. This Heartland
was perceived as the greatest natural fortress on earth surrounded on all sides by geographical barriers. Mackinder stated
that the Heartland was made up of the territory originally occupied by the Russian Empire and by the Soviet Union soon
after that.

The Heartland Theory 1904.
In his book “How to rule the world” he exposes the Heartland Theory. According to the theory, the core of global influence
lies in what is known as the Heartland, a region of the world that includes Central Asia, the High Seas and Eurasia due to its
sheer size, a wealth of resources, and a high population.

The theory considers that whoever controls the heartland will control the island and whoever controls the world island
(Eurasia and Africa) will rule the world. The theory is a general and simple theory about the past and future dynamic and
rationale of world domination, as he claims that the nation that has control of present Central Russia, Central Asia and
Siberia will eventually extend its domain over a greater area, leading to world domination. But why? Because eastern Europe
holds some of the greatest resources in the world in terms of raw materials and agriculture – the basic ingredients you need
to control a large military, which would make it easy to gradually take over the rest of the world. Moreover, Mackinder
thought that after gaining control of the Heartland and all its resources, one could easily gain the World Island by controlling
the coasts and warm water ports, or the key areas that made international trade possible.

However, while the Heartland has as much as 50% of the resources in the world, the region is largely under-developed, and
its residents live in relatively poor conditions. Countries of Eastern Europe enjoy proximity to the Heartland and therefore
are in literally the best position to take advantage of its resources. However, the Heartland has been under Russian authority
for hundreds of years and so to capture the Heartland, countries needed to prevent the expansion of Russian influence in
the Heartland at the very least. Mackinder believed that countries from other world regions (the offshore islands and the
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outlying islands) were hindered from making a successful invasion in the Heartland by the geographical barriers surrounding
the Heartland (the Carpathian Mountains to the west, the Hindukush Ranges to the South, and the Altai to the east and the
Baltic Sea to the north). Only countries in Eastern Europe were seen as potential candidates of launching a successful
invasion in the Heartland.

Main ideas:
• The world-island of Eurasia should never be dominated
by a single power or a coalition of powers.
• Land power could always defeat sea power, specially in
the age of railways (opposite to Mahan1).
• British Navy would be no match for any power or
coalition that dominates the Eurasian landmass.
• He identified a particular area on the Eurasian
landmass that he deemed of critical geo-strategic
importance (‘Pivot area’). The ‘pivot area’ is
surrounded by the ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ crescents (as
mentioned earlier).

General considerations:
• General and simple theory about the past and future dynamic and rationale of world domination
• Mackinder’s view is that the control of present Central Russia + Central Asia + Siberia could drive world domination.
• Never fully tested by reality, although some authors support the fact that it’s been close or could be (Nazi-soviet
Pact 1939, Rise of China). In fact, some historians believe that the theory was the inspiration behind Germany’s
invasion of Russia during the Second World War.
• Although its limitations and simplicity it helped to shape US foreign policy during the Cold War.
• Mackinder’s theory was updated by Spykman.

Central Asia and Land power.

Until the 15th c. power was mainly derived from the physical control of landmass (infantry and cavalry). All main invasions
came from Central Asia during centuries (Both Roman Empires, Great Wall of China, Gengis Khnan). From the 16th c.
maritime expansion of European Powers implied a shift from land power to sea power, which provided control over distant
possessions and ensured strategic access. However, the expansion of railways from the 19th c. represented a geopolitical
shift from ‘sea power’ to ‘land power’. In early 20th c. although Russia dominated the pivot, it did not have enough political,
economic and demographic development.

Mackinder’s Britain. The context.
When Mackinder developed his theory, Britain had the most extent empire in the world, nevertheless Mackinder was
concerned with power relationships that surrounded the empire. The British industrial production was surpassed by the
United States in Germany in the late 19th century. European continent under the Balance of power scheme was established
after the Napoleonic wars, which was a peaceful period. The British sea power had no parallel, however land powers casted
doubts. It is important to highlight that the mentioned theory came nine years after the “Great Game” ended. The Great
Game was the 19th century Anglo-Russian geopolitical rivalry in Central Asia, with yhe main tensions and confrontations
taking place between 1830-1895 and the competition being centered around Afghanistan and the surrounding regions. It
was secretive and non-declared war in mountain passes, canyons and deserts in Central Asia which ultimately triggered two
Anglo-Afghan Wars in 1839-1842 and 1878-1880.

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Mahan believed that national greatness was inextricably associated with the sea, with its commercial use in peace and its control in war. The
primary mission of a navy was to secure the command of the sea, which would permit the maintenance of sea communications for one's own
ships while denying their use to the enemy and, if necessary, closely supervise neutral trade. According to Mahan, the economic future of the
nation depended on gaining new markets abroad and a powerful navy was essential to protect these markets.
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Applicability

During the Second World War, Mackinder’s theory was put to the test. The
Heartland (or pivot area) could have become the focus of power if either
Russia had united with Germany or Russia had been overthrown by China
and Japan. The Nazi party was in favor of the concept during World War II.
The idea was very popular with the party, and they sought to achieve it.
Mackinder's theory also may have influenced Western powers' strategic
thinking during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United
States, as the Soviet Union had control over the former East Bloc countries.

Since the theory was formulated at the end of the railway age, Mackinder saw it as a high point of communication that was
capable of uniting the whole Heartland into one cohesive unit. In the age of modern warfare, Mackinder's theory is widely
considered outdated. At the time he proposed his theory, he took into consideration world history only in the context of
conflict between land and sea powers. Nations with large navies were at an advantage over those that could not successfully
navigate the oceans, Mackinder suggested. Of course, in the modern era, the use of aircraft has greatly changed the ability
to control territory and provide defensive capabilities.

Yet, while the Heartland Theory was drafted in the early 20th century, before the world was plunged into the two World
Wars and a Cold War soon after that, some scholars can link recent events of the 21st century as examples of the Heartland
Theory in action. Based on Mackinder’s map, China is a constituent of the World-Island as are other major global powers
including the EU, India, and Russia. In recent years, China’s influence in countries of the World-Island has been on an upward
trend, with the country using economic support to gain patronage and loyalty from the countries. Some see China's
prominence in international affairs as culminating with the country being the global power. China needed to first emerge
as the largest economy in Asia-Europe, before it eventually surpasses the United States as the global superpower, fulfilling
what Mackinder stated: “who rules the World-Island commands the world.”

Criticism

Mackinder wrote down the theory in the turn of the 20th century, a period when modern technological advancements were
still in their infancy. Mackinder also didn’t foresee the kinds of military technology we would have in the future, like nuclear
weapons, high tech missiles, military air craft, etc. that complicates any scheme of taking over the world through the
Heartland Theory. Perhaps this is why the USSR and Hitler eventually failed in their plots.

In addition, the writer claimed that the existing natural barriers would protect the Heartland from foreign invasion.
However, modern warfare features long-range missiles and fighter jets which easily cancel out the “natural barrier.” History
has also proven the flaws of the theory. The Mongol Invasions which swept through the Heartland did not have the
aforementioned modern weapons but were nonetheless able to conquer vast regions of the “impenetrable” heartland.

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SESSION 3.

THE 10 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS OF WWI (mirarlos todos pero más importantes los que están en azul).

a) Total War
• WWI was the first ‘Total war’ in history (not the last)
• National industries and economies focused and devoted to war effort

• Implied rationed consumption, central economic planning and incorporation of women to production
• Supply of raw materials, transportation and energy became strategic in war effort

• States took massive amounts of debt to finance an unprecedented production effort
• ‘Total war’ implied an active and central role of the State in economy

b) The British Blockade
• Led by Britain, it was a naval operation conducted by the Allied Powers during and after WWI in order to
block.
• It aimed to restrict the maritime supply of goods to the Central Powers (specially Germany, which heavily
relied on imports)
• By 1915, Germanyʹs imports had already fallen by 55% from their prewar levels and the exports were 53%
of what they were in 1914.
• It caused shortages in vital raw materials such as coal and non-ferrous metals...
...but also deprived
Germany of supplies of fertilizer that were vital to agriculture
• Food shortages caused looting and riots, not only in Germany, but also in Vienna and Budapest.
• A rationing system initially introduced in January 1915 aimed to ensure that a minimum nutritional need
of 1,000 cal.
By 1917, disorders caused by malnutrition such as scurvy, tuberculosis, and dysentery were
common among Central Powers citizens
• A case of Sea power

• It is considered one of the key elements in the eventual Allied victory in the war

• The German Board of Public Health in Dec 1918 claimed that 763,000 German civilians died from starvation
and disease caused by the blockade (until the end of Dec 1918)

c) 1917
Two historical events that took place that year, which were a turning point for WWI and also for the entire 20th
century.

Soviet revolution and armistice
A little bit of context:
• The 19th c. shows in Russia a very different outlook vs. its European peers: its political, economic and social
situation was materially behind

• The Romanov dynasty had ruled Russia for centuries with the strong support of the church, bureaucracy
aristocracy and landowners
• Nicholas II, the new Tsar, took office in 1895

• Late industrialization (with French support) and the emergence of middle class triggered political reforms,
that were unattended

• The defeat in the Russo Japanese War and social demands broke out in the 1905 Revolution

• Strikes, uprisings and mutinies of workers, peasant and some sections of the army (not coordinated)
• The 1905 Revolution was subdued the promise of limited civil rights and a modest parliamentary system
(Duma)

• Between 1906 and 1916 strikes and protests became more frequent despite marginal reforms in land
property.
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• The breaking of WWI accelerated popular protests and demands
• War largely worsened conditions in Russia (unprepared troops, poor logistics, famine)
Liberals strived for
parliamentary reforms, Bolsheviks aimed for direct revolution and most farmers simply demanded ‘peace,
bread and land’

Then came 1917…
• The first Revolution came in March 1917 and resulted in the abdication of the Tsar and Russia becoming a
republic
• An unelected provisional government was formed but in parallel councils of workers and soldiers spread
quickly (‘soviets’)
• Lenin remained exiled until the March Revolution (the Germans ‘facilitated’ his return)
• When Lenin returned he urged the Bolsheviks to organize a second revolution, which was planned by
Trotsky (later to organize the Red Army)

• The second Revolution, through which the Bolsheviks seized power came in October 1917 but was unable
to take full control of the whole country
• A civil war broke out between Reds (Communists) and Whites (Non-Communists)

• Western powers supported the Whites, with troops and equipment (including US, Britain, France and
Japan)
• The Reds prevailed and had won the war by 1921
• Brest-Litovsk Agreement
o Harsh treaty on March 3rd 1918 between Bolskvik Gov’t and Central Powers to put and end to the
participation of Russia in WWI
o Russia renounced to any claims on Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine and Lithuania
and parts of the Caucasus (1/3 of total population)...

o ...and nearly half the agricultural production, industry and resources (coal, oil, iron)
o Russia was allowed to default all the Imperial Russia commitments but had to pay war reparations
**WWI armistice in Nov 1918 would cancel this agreement

US involvement in WWI
• Although many countries were drawn into the conflict of World War I, the United States maintained a policy
of isolationism advocated by President Wilson. à Most Americans saw no reason to get involved in a war
3,000 miles away

• Elected in 1912 as the 28th president of the United States, Thomas Woodrow Wilson served from 1913 to
1921.The president vowed to keep the country out of the war, but attacks on American lives eventually
made this impossible.
• Some German-Americans supported Germany, yet many Americans felt closer to Britain
• Importantly, US economic interests were far stronger with the Allies
• British and Germans imposed naval blockades on each other
• The Germans used submarines to prevent shipments to the North Atlantic (any ship found in the waters
around Britain would be sunk)
• The US supplied the allied forces dynamite, cannon powder, submarines, copper wire and tubing and other
war materials
• On May 7, 1915, a German U-boat sank the British liner R.M.S. Lusitania off the coast of Ireland, killing
1,198 people with 128 Americans among the fatalities.
• On February 1917 Germany declares unrestricted U-boat warfare

• The US breaks diplomatic relations with Germany two days after
• President Wilson, until then, had been neutral (at least officially)
• A German U-boat sank the British passenger liner killing all aboard (1,200 people) including 128 Americans

• The Germans claimed the ship was carrying Allied ammunition
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• US citizens were outraged and public opinion turned against Germany
• The Zimmerman Telegram (1917): A secret telegram from the German foreign minister to the German
Ambassador in Mexico, was intercepted by a British agent.
It proposed an alliance with Mexico and a
return of their “lost territories” in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona.
Shortly after, four U.S. merchant ships
were sunk by German submarines.
• On April 2, 1917 President Wilson delivered his declaration of war speech.
Wilson proclaimed, “The world
must be made safe for democracy.” Congress passed the resolution a few days later
• That same year Russia surrendered to the Germans in and the Central Powers were able to focus on the
Western Front
• The US contributed to the exhausted Allies with fresh troops that were crucial in the Western front
By
1918, nearly 2 million US soldiers had been deployed in Europe.
• US participation in WWI compensated by far the drop-off of Russia from the conflict in 1917


d) Rise of new powers (US, USSR), decline of Europe
Rise of new powers
• USA:
o The impact of the Great War on the United States saw political, economic and social changes. The
United States emerged from the war as a world military and industrial leader.
o Unlike the war-torn cities of Europe the homes and industries of the nation were relatively
unscathed by the Great War. The late entry of the US meant that fewer men had lost their lives
than in Europe.
o Production and efficiency in industries and factories had increased. Technology had advanced and
the nation had entered the age of steel and electricity. à America had emerged as a world
industrial leader and the US economy was booming, profits were increasing which led to the period
in American history called the Roaring Twenties with a massive rise in consumerism for the
wealthy.
o The Progressive Movement 1890 - 1920 gave rise to the many social and political Progressive
Reforms changing the lifestyles and expectations of Americans.
o The role of women changed during Great War, and many women took on the jobs of men. The
influence and expectations of women and their role in society increased.
o The 19th Amendment was passed by Congress on June 4, 1919 and the Women's Suffrage Clause,
was ratified on August 18, 1920. Women's suffrage gave the right of a woman to vote
o There was a boom in the economy and industries were enjoying an increase in profits. However,
inflation was high and, in an attempt to reduce operating costs, businesses laid off workers and
reduced wages. à inflation increased the cost of living, the cost of housing, food, clothing and
other essentials. In 1919 prices rose at an average of more than 15%.
o Revolution in fashions (specially in women’s clothes, hair and habits) originated in the
US
Automobile mass production spread in the 1920 altering lifestyles.
o Massive impact of Jazz and Hollywood movies

o New York was more populated in 1920 than any European capital (influx of intellectuals and artists)
o Middle class no more ‘a class’ but an overall phenomenon
o American popular culture and lifestyles begin to be near- universal (as well as consumption)

o American soft power boomed

• USSR
o The Soviet Union benefited from Germany's loss, as one of the first terms of the armistice was the
abrogation of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
o the Red Army's victory over what became characterised under Stalin as 'The Three Campaigns of
the Entente' (a loaded reference to the efforts of Kolchak, Denikin and Iudenich, who were
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portrayed as being 'puppets' of western capitalism), in a civil war that cost perhaps ten million
lives, assumed a hallowed place in Soviet and Russian history.
o It was this victory that helped forge post-tsarist Russia's self-image as a strong country that had
stood up to the bullying of the west, and that lay at the root of the Cold War. Even Gorbachev,
often seen as a friend of the west, was prone to mentioning it; and it cannot be far from President
Putin's mind as events unfold in the Middle East.

Decline of Europe
• The various treaties that had settled territorial boundaries were based on nationalism. As regards the map
of Europe, the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empires were broken up and drastically shrunk, while
Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia were all born or reborn as nation states. Russia underwent the
Bolshevik Revolution that would have a major impact on European and world history. Germany was
reduced in size and forced to pay substantial reparations. The Kaiser went into exile, and Germany plunged
into economic and political chaos that paved the way for the rise of Hitler. The new countries were poor
and often in conflict with each other.
• The human cost of the First World War was horrendous. More than 16 million people, both military and
civilian, died in the war. An entire generation of young men was wiped away. In 1919, the year after the
war was over in France, there were 15 women for every man between the ages of 18 and 30. It is tragic to
consider all of the lost potential, all of the writers, artists, teachers, inventors and leaders that were killed
in ‘the war to end all wars.’
• Rise of nationalism in colonies (India, Egypt, etc)
o By the mid-1920s, France faced the dual challenge of suppressing revolt in Syria and containing
the Rif campaign of Abd el-Krim (1882-1963) in Morocco.
o 1919-22 was a period of imperial crisis for Britain, witnessing the accretion of a number of serious
nationalist challenges to imperial rule
§ During the spring of 1919 alone Egypt flared up in revolutionary unrest
§ By 1920 the scale of crisis had become even greater, with a tribal rebellion in
Mesopotamia so extensive that over 60,000 troops were required to contain it
• Lower European attachment to colonial empires (intellectuals, lower popular support)

e) Four empires defeated, Eastern Europe redrawn
1. Ottoman Empire:
o At the end of the war, the Allies occupied Constantinople (İstanbul) and the Ottoman government
collapsed. The Treaty of Sèvres, a plan designed by the Allies to dismember the remaining Ottoman
territories, was signed on 10 August 1920, although it was never ratified by the Sultan.
o The League of Nations granted Class A mandates for the French Mandate of Syria and
Lebanon and British Mandate of Mesopotamia and Palestine, the latter comprising two autonomous
regions: Mandate Palestine and the Emirate of Transjordan. Parts of the Ottoman Empire on
the Arabian Peninsula became part of what is today Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The dissolution of the
Ottoman Empire became a pivotal milestone in the creation of the modern Middle East, the result
of which bore witness to the creation of new conflicts and hostilities in the region
2. Austria-Hungary:
o With the war having turned decisively against the Central Powers, the people of Austria-Hungary
lost faith in their allied countries, and even before the armistice in November, radical nationalism
had already led to several declarations of independence in south-central Europe after November
1918. As the central government had ceased to operate in vast areas, these regions found
themselves without a government and many new groups attempted to fill the void. During this same
period, the population was facing food shortages and was, for the most part, demoralized by the
losses incurred during the war.

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o Establishment of the Republic of German Austria and the Hungarian Democratic Republic,
disavowing any continuity with the empire and exiling the Habsburg family in perpetuity.
3. German
o In Germany, there was a socialist revolution which led to the brief establishment of a number of
communist political systems in (mainly urban) parts of the country, the abdication of Kaiser Wilhelm
II, and the creation of the Weimar Republic.
o On 28 June 1919 the Weimar Republic was forced, under threat of continued Allied advance, to sign
the Treaty of Versailles. Germany viewed the one-sided treaty as a humiliation and as blaming it for
the entire war. While this was not the intent of the treaty, the notion took root in German society
and was never accepted by nationalists, although it was argued by some, such as German
historian Fritz Fischer. The German government disseminated propaganda to further promote this
idea, and funded the Centre for the Study of the Causes of the War to this end.
o The treaty required Germany to permanently reduce the size of its army to 100,000 men, and
destroy their tanks, air force, and U-boat fleet (her capital ships, moored in Scapa Flow, were scuttled
by their crews to prevent them from falling into Allied hands).
o Germany saw relatively small amounts of territory transferred to Denmark, Czechoslovakia, and
Belgium, a larger amount to France (including the temporary French occupation of the Rhineland)
and the greatest portion as part of a reestablished Poland.
4. Russian: The Soviet Union benefited from Germany's loss, as one of the first terms of the armistice was the
abrogation of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. At the time of the armistice Russia was in the grips of a civil
war which left more than seven million people dead and large areas of the country devastated. The nation
as a whole suffered socially and economically. As to her border
territories, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia gained independence. They were occupied again by the Soviet
Union in 1940. Finland gained a lasting independence, though she repeatedly had to fight the Soviet Union
for her borders. Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan were established as independent states in the Caucasus
region. These countries were proclaimed as Soviet Republics in 1922 and over time were absorbed into the
Soviet Union

f) Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916)
Secret convention made during World War I between Great Britain and France, with the assent of imperial Russia,
for the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. The agreement led to the division of Turkish-
held Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine into various French- and British-administered areas. Negotiations were
begun in November 1915, and the final agreement took its name from its negotiators, Sir Mark Sykesof Britain and
François Georges-Picot of France.

g) New social role of the state (+interventionism)
In the immediate aftermath of the war, acute social tensions pushed governments to continue state intervention
in the social and economic sphere. Mass society held the state responsible for the social question and the
accomplishment of extensive social reforms. This new pressure came from below, from those who had served in
national armies or had been mobilized for the war economy. Trade unions, which had cooperated with the state
and employers during the war, now wanted more influence for the working class in the production system. In
addition, war victims and veterans organized themselves into large pressure movements.

h) Social, political and economic unrest in Europe

i) The League of Nations
• League of Nations, an organization for international cooperation established on January 10, 1920, at
the initiative of the victorious Allied Powers at the end of World War I.
• The terrible losses of World War I produced, as years went by and peace seemed no nearer, an ever
growing public demand that some method be found to prevent the renewal of the suffering and

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destruction which were now seen to be an inescapable part of modern war. So great was the force of this
demand that within a few weeks after the opening of the Paris Peace Conference in January 1919,
unanimous agreement had been reached on the text of the Covenant of the League of Nations. Although
the League was unable to fulfill the hopes of its founders, its creation was an event of decisive importance
in the history of international relations.
• Members of the League of Nations were required to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all
other nation-states and to disavow the use or threat of military force as a means of resolving international
conflicts.
• However, the League ultimately failed to prevent the outbreak of the Second World War, and has therefore
been viewed by historians as a largely weak, ineffective, and essentially powerless organization.44start
superscript, 4, end superscript Not only did the League lack effective enforcement mechanisms, but many
countries refused to join and were therefore not bound to respect the rules and obligations of membership.

j) A punitive peace treaty: The Treaty of Versailles
• The Treaty of Versailles was signed on June 28, 1919, and officially ended the war between Germany and
the Allied Powers.
• Terms of the Treaty:
o The controversial War Guilt clause blamed Germany for World War I and imposed heavy debt
payments on Germany. à The Treaty established a blueprint for the postwar world. One of the
most controversial terms of the treaty was the War Guilt clause, which explicitly and directly
blamed Germany for the outbreak of hostilities. The treaty forced Germany to disarm, to make
territorial concessions, and to pay reparations to the Allied powers in the staggering amount of $5
billion.
Although US President Woodrow Wilson was opposed to such harsh terms, he was
outmaneuvered by French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau. France was the only Allied power
to share a border with Germany, and therefore suffered the bulk of the devastation and casualties
from the German war machine. The French aimed to weaken Germany to the greatest extent
possible.
• Consequences:
o The Treaty of Versailles was a major contributing factor in the outbreak of the Second World War.
o When Adolf Hitler came to power in Germany in 1934, his government began to violate many of
the terms of the Treaty of Versailles. Not only did Hitler announce a moratorium on all debt
payments and cease making reparations, but he began to build up the German armed forces in
earnest.66start superscript, 6, end superscript Some historians believe that the onerous terms of
the treaty laid the psychological and economic groundwork for the rise of the Nazi party, which
capitalized on German resentment of the burdens imposed by the Allied powers after the First
World War


ASSESSMENT OF THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS. ACHIEVEMENTS AND FAILURES.

a) Achievements
• It helped in the reduction of trade in dangerous drugs, women and children.
• In the 1920's, its membership increased most notably when Germany was included in 1926.
• In 1923, the League faced further problems in Turkey. The League failed to stop a bloody war in Turkey
• Helped to end the war between Greece and Bulgaria in 1925.
• Ensured the signing of peace pacts intended to promote security.
• Provision of relief for famine stricken, disease zones refugees and war casualties.
• Successfully restored financial stability in Austria which had been affected by the economic slump after World War
I.
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• Establishment of the International Health Organization (ILO) thus improving workers' welfare through the
application of labour laws like minimum wages, old age pension and maximum working hours.
• The league's presence gave a platform for situations to be dealt with in discussion instead of force.















b) Failures
• Closer to a ‘Victor’s club’ (of France and Britain) rather than a ‘League of Nations’ (key members did not join or left)
• It could only made recommendations, never binding resolutions
• No economic or military mechanisms to enforce non- compliant members

• Rise of parallel diplomacy

• Increasingly non-effective in an spiral of isolationism militarism and aggressive foreign policies
• All of the victorious great powers had joined after the war except America, only France and the United Kingdom
had been with the League from start to finish. The league could not really act on the big nations who could ignore
the league's "collective security" which was their act on aggressors instead of deploying an army. So it could not
enforce its decisions.
• In 1923 the Corfu incident demonstrated to the world that the League could not deal at all with acts of aggression.
In 1931 when Japan invaded Manchuria, all the league could do was condemn Japan who left the league and
continued the aggression against China.
• When Italy attacked Abyssinia all the league could do was condemn Italy and place sanctions on it, but they didn’t
put sanctions on the oil, which would have been an effective option. Britain and France didn't give the league proper
support. The league could not prevent Italy from completing the invasion of Abysinnia.
• In spite of all its efforts, however, it could not prevent the Second World War.

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c) League’s overall assessments
• Pioneer and groundbreaking attempt of new int’l order based on dialogue and collective security

• Promoted greater int’l cooperation, discussion and diplomacy Uneven performance and impact
• Flawed from the beginning with key absences (US, Germany, Russia) Comprehensive vision of global affairs
(health, labour conditions, humanitarian work, international justice)
Quite successful is preventing conflicts
between small states and minor powers, not that much when interests of major powers were involved or in
effective disarmament
• Efficacy taken away by events: parallel diplomacy, economic crisis, return to isolationism, decline of int’l
cooperation and rise of nationalism

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SESSION 4.

CAUSES OF THE RISE OF THE JAPANESE EMPIRE (1905-1941) AND CONSEQUENCES

Causes:
o Japan had chosen an isolationist policy (‘Sakoku’), keeping largely medieval a social and political organization
(Shogunate).
o US war ships forced Japan establish commercial relations in 1854.
o In 1868: end of Tokugawa Shogun after 220 years, Emperor restored to head of state. à Although there had been
economic difficulties and social unrest before 1868, which had indicated problems within Japanese feudalism and
which had created difficulties for the last shogun, it was undoubtedly the arrival of Western powers which finally
led to the end of the shogunate.
o This increasing Western influence had led to a rise of Japanese nationalism which, after 1868, was expressed in
several ways:
o After 1868, Japan’s new rulers were determined to adopt Western science and technology, in order to
make Japan strong.
o As early as April 1868, they introduced the Charter Oath of Five Articles: Article Five explicitly stated how
the new Japan was going to seek knowledge throughout the world.
o In addition, the creation of a modern army and navy was a top priority.
o In 1869 : Emperor Meiji Mutsihito (Meiji = Enligtened rule) starts a new age for Japan. The Meiji Restoration started
a wide and deep set of economic, social and institutional changes, moving Japan from feudal to modern form. à
Japan undertook an extraordinary program of imitating and adopting the technology, forms of organization and
know-how’s of Western Powers. The military went through a process of modernisation, which included adapting
German military tactics and the creation of a new navy with the assistance of the British. This lead to Japan's victory
over China in the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95), thus positioning Japan as a world power.
o Japan’s economy industrialized and expanded fast in late 19th and early 20th century à
With the turn of the 20th
c., Japan emerged as a strong rising power.
o Russo-Japanese War (1904-05): Victory over Russia, concerned US (Pacific Ocean) and European Powers (British,
Dutch colonies).
o Russia's demand for return of Liaodong Peninsula to China, backed by Britain, and the U.S., after the
success of Japan over China.
o Russia's taking over the Liaodong Peninsula (25 year lease), and building the Chinese Eastern Railway in
Manchuria. Also Russian military presence in Korea. (McClain, 302)
o Japanese decision for war:
§ Take over Chinese territory because Russia refused to concede.
§ Also to enhance Japan's prestige and standing among the Great Powers.
o However, Japan was not self-sufficient in coal, iron and other essential raw materials.
o As European powers did before, Japan sought an empire to supply its growing industrializations and economy.
Moreover, as China experienced significant political instability for much of the 1920s and 1930s, Japanese
expansionists saw this as offering an easy way of solving Japan’s problems.
o Japan secured former German Pacific Islands and Germany's former economic privileges on the Shandong
Peninsula. This established Japan as an economic power in Asia and the main naval power in the Western Pacific.
However, As an ally in WWI, Japan was disappointed with the minor gains after the conflict (few German colonies
- Pacific islands).
o Corporate and military sectors, demanded Gov’l to pursue aggressive foreign policy, weakening parliamentary
democracy.
o In 1927, the ‘Tanaka Plan’ envisaged Japanese expansion throughout Asia and the world. à The famous Tanaka
Memorial was a document submitted to the Japanese emperor in 1927 by Baron Tanaka, the premier of Japan. This
document outlined in detailed steps a program of Japanese imperialist expansion, beginning with establishment of
Japanese control in Manchuria and leading eventually to domination of all China, Indonesia, the South Sea Islands,
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the Maritime Provinces of USSR and, eventually, India and the whole Pacific basin.
o Japan’s militarism rose strongly from the 1920-30s, mirroring the rise of Nazism.
o The 1929 crisis severely affected Japan with tariffs to its exports and denials of many countries for Japanese
migrants.
o By early 1930s, political power had been utterly concentrated around the Emperor and the military establishment
à The political structure of Japan at this time was inherited from the Meiji era and was increasingly dominated by
the military. During the Meiji period, the government was controlled by a small ruling group of elder statesmen
who had overthrown the shogun and established the new centralized Japanese state. These men used their position
to coordinate the bureaucracy, the military, the parliament, the Imperial Household, and other branches of
government. Following their deaths in the early 1920s, no single governmental institution was able to establish full
control, until the 1931 Manchurian Incident, when Japan took control of Manchuria. This began a process in which
the military behaved autonomously on the Asian mainland and with increasing authority in politics at home.

Consequences:
o From 1931, Japan launched a series of military campaigns across East Asia and the Pacific which, initially, were
highly successful. Sometimes referred to as either the ‘Fifteen-Year War’ or ‘The Greater Asia War’, this Pacific War
is more often seen as a part – though an important
part – of the general Second World War. In some ways, it can be argued that the Second World War actually began
in 1931 in Asia, rather than in 1939 in Europe.
o Why invasion in Manchuria? caused by changed political situation in China in late 1920s and growth of
Japanese nationalism and militarism due to their own political and economic crises.
o The conclusion of the Nazi-Soviet pact in August 1939 was a great shock to pro-German groups in the Japanese
government, who regarded the Russians as dangerous. And after German forces overran France and the rest of
western Europe in the spring and summer of 1940, the Japanese began to fear that Germany would also seek
political control of French Indochina and the Netherlands East Indies.
o These territories were part of Japan's vital supply route for men and materials to and from the Chinese mainland,
and the Japanese were worried that German influence was thus affecting their interests in south east Asia. Neither
were they sanguine about Hitler's long-term intentions.
o Foreign Minister Matsuoka, therefore, advocated strengthening political ties with the Axis, and a 'Tripartite Pact'
was concluded in September 1940. à They agreed that Germany and Italy would dominate Europe leaving Japan
to dominate East Asia.
o At the same time, Japan was faced with an 'ABCD encirclement' of America, Britain, China and the Dutch, all of
which threatened Japanese markets and interests in Asia. The Japanese thus felt obliged to strengthen their own
position further south, and embarked on a southward advance into French Indochina.
o The Japanese also began negotiations with the Netherlands East Indies to increase the quota of oil exports to Japan
in case oil exports from the US ceased.
o In June 1941 negotiations with the Netherlands East Indies broke down and on 2 July the Japanese endorsed a
further push forward for their 'southward advance' while secretly preparing for war with the Soviets. When Japan
occupied southern Indochina that same month, the United States imposed a de facto oil embargo.
o By early September the emperor himself was becoming concerned about the hawkish tone of the military vis-à-vis
negotiations with the United States. But a memorandum issued by US Secretary of State Cordell Hull, on 26

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November, demanding that Japan withdraw completely from China and Indochina, played into the hands of
Japanese hardliners. On that day the Japanese fleet sailed for Pearl Harbor.
o Japan's annexation of territory throughout SE Asia in 1941-2 was the immediate cause of war in the Pacific during
World War Two. However, it was Japan's insistence on retaining its Chinese territory and US insistence that Japan
relinquish this territory, that created the real tensions between the two.
o The tripartite pact (between Japan, Germany and Italy) of September 1940 was also a major stumbling block to
good relations between the US and Japan. On the US side, there was prejudice and misconception, but the Japanese
government was also misled by military factions, who had learned the wrong lessons from their two short imperial
wars with China and Russia. They believed that Allied weakness in south east Asia and American isolationist
sentiment would mean another short war. This, however, was not to be. What the Japanese had done was to
awaken the fury of America, and to set in train a war that would end in their total defeat.


WWI VS. WWII AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL COMPARISON.

I. Until what extent can we say it is a unique conflict?

A Thirty-year war:
• Conflicts that involved European powers between 1918 and 1939 (after WWI and before WWII outbreak):
o Russian civil war 1920, Spanish Civil War 1936, Japanese invasion of Manchuria 1931. à Conflict between the
powers was alive, it did not cease with armistice in 1918
• At both times, expansionism of powers was a driving force: In WWI imperial powers reasserting their power over
territories, in WWII German (invasion of Poland) and Japanese (East Asia) expansionist aggression
• WWII grew out of unresolved problems of WWI
o (Treaty of Versailles- humiliating terms of peace imposed upon Germany):
o Redivision of the world, nationalism.
o Economic distress and military build-up. Period of peace was to develop new weapons and grow new soldiers
• The underlying motive for both wars remains in the will of powers of maintain their sphere of influence and hegemony
in the world.
o Germany wanted to reassert its position in world order,
o Britain wanted to maintain its hegemony in sea power to control her overseas colonies,
o France to maintain her superiority in continental Europe as she had done along 19th century

Two separate conflicts:

• Motives were different: In WWI the impulse was expansion of empires and control of territories à scramble for
Colonies and competition for empire.
• On the other hand, WWII had an ideological basis of: liberal democracy, communism or fascism to replace the failing
colonial empires
• At least two powers from WWI switched sides in WWII:
o Italy, Japan Which shows different interests and objectives
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• Military techniques changed (different countries + objectives):
o There was no longer trench warfare
o Mechanisation
o Air power
o Radio communication
o All this allowed mobility of battle field in WWII (cities à civilians were attacked)
• Two interrelated conflicts does not mean it is one sole conflicts: peace abruptly stopped the fighting.
• It can be argued that the results of WWI triggered the right conditions for the outbreak for a second war. However, this
does not mean they are the same conflicts, as motives were diverse.
• WWI initiated as a quarrel between European powers for economic and political control of northwestern Europe. WWI
revolved around Europe. WWII was much more global: Japanese expansionism in East Asia was moved by objectives
that had nothing to do with WWI

I. Geopolitical comparison

WWI WWII

o Territory, empire o Ideology
o Land and Sea o Land, sea, air and atomic (+ intelligence)
o One continent o Three continents
o Military o Civilian and military
o Punitive o Occupation and reconstruction
o New borders, low human displacement o Old borders, high human displacement

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WORLD WAR I WORLD WAR II

Period and duration 1914 to 1918; 4 years 1939-1945; 6 years

Triggers and causes Assassination of Archduke Francis Political and economic instability in
Ferdinand of Austria in June 1914. Germany. The harsh conditions of the
Militarism, Imperialism, nationalism and Treaty of Versailles Rise of power of Adolf
alliance system. Hitler and his alliance with Italy and Japan
to oppose the Soviet Union

Conflict between The Central Powers (Germany, Austria- The Axis Powers (Germany, Italy, and
Hungary, and Turkey) and the Allied Japan) and the Allied Powers (France,
Powers (France, Britain, Russia, Italy, Britain, the U.S., the Soviet Union, and
Japan, and (from 1917) the U.S.) China)

Methods of warfare Fought from lines of trenches and Nuclear power and missiles were used,
supported by artillery and machine guns, modern concepts of covert and special
infantry assault, tanks, early airplanes operations. Submarines and tanks were
and poisonous gas. Mostly static in also more heavily used. Germany used the
nature, mobility was minimal. Blitzkrieg fighting method.

Outcomes The German, Russian, Austro-Hungarian The war ended with the total victory of the
and Ottoman empires were defeated. Allies over Germany and Japan in 1945.
Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires The Soviet Union and the United States
ceased to exist. The League of Nations emerged as rival superpowers. The United
was formed in the hope of preventing Nations was established to foster
another such conflict. international cooperation and prevent
conflicts.

Post-war politics Resentment with the onerous terms of There was a Cold War between the United
the Treaty of Versailles fuelled the rise of States and Russia after the end of the
Adolf Hitler's party in Germany. Second World War until the collapse of
the USSR (1947-1991). The wars in
Afghanistan, Vietnam and Korea were, in
a sense, proxy wars between the two
nations.

Nature of war War between empires for acquiring War of ideologies, such as Fascism and
colonies or territory or resources. Communism.

American president during the Woodrow Wilson FDR, Harry Truman

war

British Prime Minister during H. H. Asquith (1908-1916); David Lloyd Winston Churchill
the war George (1916-1922)

Predecessor Napoleonic Wars World War I

Successor World War II Cold War

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SESSION 5. TRUMAN VS. EISENHOWER DOCTRINES. ORIGINS OF COLD WAR. HOW AND WHY THE
COLD WAR ENDED.

TRUMAN VS. EISENHOWER DOCTRINE

Defense by deterrent was the main objective during the Cold War as the United States moved to defend democracy by
blocking the communist infiltration of vulnerable countries. In order to protect targeted countries from communism,
Presidents Harry S. Truman, and Dwight D. Eisenhower moved to establish doctrines that served similar purposes qas the
result of different circumstances. Each doctrine was enacted to protect different regions, to protect those regions from
communist threat, and to halt the communist influence of independent nations.

The doctrines were both motivated to decrease communist infiltration; however, each doctrine was enacted in order to
defend certain regions that were under threat during its time.

• The Truman doctrine was influenced by the fact that Great Britain could not afford to assist “the Greek Government
in its civil war against the Greek communist party”. Truman also pressured Congress to assist Turkey because it was
also relying on British support in 1947. The Truman doctrine gained the public and congressional support to provide
$400 million to aid Greece and Turkey.
• Similarly, the Eisenhower doctrine “was a continuation of the U.S. policy of containment of or resistance to any
extension of the Soviet sphere of influence”). In January 1957, the Eisenhower doctrine provided $200 million in
aid to Middle Eastern countries which required “military and economic” support in order to cease communist
aggression.

Both doctrines were intended to halt communism, but they were enacted because of different threats.

• The Truman Doctrine was intended to obstruct communism in Mediterranean countries because “Stalin had
stepped up Soviet support of Communist guerillas in Greece and Turkey”. Truman feared that communist influence
in Greece and Turkey would eventually infiltrate the Middle East without American intervention.
• Only ten years later, the Eisenhower Doctrine was enacted because of communist aggression in the Middle East.
“Eisenhower feared that radical nationalism would combine with international communism in the region and
threaten Western interests”). He feared this because communist countries supplied Egypt with arms and because
Arab states were showing hostility and gaining strong communist support “against an Israeli, French, and British
attack on Egypt in October 1956”.

TRUMAN DOCTRINE

To the new administration of Harry Truman, this behavior was reminiscent of Hitler's in the 1930s. Like many of the
statesmen of his age, he believed that the proper means of responding to an international bully was a credible threat of
force; "appeasement" was a dirty word, as it would only lead to new demands. Thus Truman decided on a strategy known
as "containment," in which the Soviets would be prevented—militarily if necessary—from using force to export their
ideology abroad. Containment would, in fact, remain the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy for the next fifty years.
Containment assumed many different forms. Under the Truman Doctrine the president pledged to defend "free peoples"
everywhere through economic and military aid. The Marshall Plan provided billions of dollars for economic recovery to
Western Europe, lest misery in France, Germany, and Italy lead to communist electoral victories in those countries. The
North Atlantic Treaty Organization was a formal military alliance, and a clear message to Moscow—the United States would
fight to defend Western Europe. Ultimately it would lead to actual war in Korea.

Foreign policy aiming to counter Soviet geopolitical ambition during the Cold War. Announced to Congress by President
Truman on March 1947. It implied American support for other nations threatened by Soviet communism expansion:
o “I believe it must be the policy of the Us to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed
minorities or by outside pressure”.
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o “I believe that we must assist free peoples to work out their own destinies in their own way”.
o “I believe that our helps should be primarily through economic and financial aid which is essential to economic
stability and orderly political processes.

This new policy argued that all countries had to choose the ‘freedom of the West or the subjugation of communism’.
Additionally, Truman announced US readiness to assist any state resisting either ‘foreign pressures’ or ‘armed minorities’.
The US Congress finally approved aid for Greece ($300m) which were key to defeat communism in the civil war and for
Turkey ($100m), which was key to secure Turkey in the western bloc.

Made a dichotomy between Democracies and Communist regimes. It was never an unconditional ‘crusade for democracy’.
Not coherent 100% in its goal to limit the expansion of Communism (i.e. ongoing Civil War in China) or promoting democracy
(i.e. Spain). The doctrine was always selective and flexible. The main focus was Europe + Iran and Turkey (only these two) in
the Middle East

Truman Doctrine drove the beginning of:

• CIA(1947)
• US National Security Council (1947)
• US Department of Defense (1949)
• NATO (1949)
• Marshal Plan (1948-52)

EISENHOWER DOCTRINE.

Continuity of Truman Doctrine, but more military emphasis than ideological. More clear support to autocracies (Spain,
Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Iran). National Security Advisor position created. Richard Nixon became Vice President... ...Allan
Foster Dulles, Secretary of State.

Geopolitical Context.
• Communist China since 1949.
• China and USSR, dominate the core of Eurasia.
• USSR develops nuclear weapons.
• Richard Nixon became Vice President...
• ...Allan Foster Dulles, Secretary of State

• Rise of Anti-Colonialism Conference, 1955

The Badung Conference (1955): 29 African and Asian states met in Indonesia. Represented 1.5b people, 55% of world
population at the time.Organised by Indonesia, Burma, Pakistan, Ceylon (Sri Lanka) and India. Aimed to promote Afro-Asian
economic and cultural cooperation and to oppose colonialism or neocolonialism by any nation.Kick-off of the Non-Aligned
movement The Eisenhower Do
The entire Middle East becomes central to US Foreign Policy (until then, only Iran and Turkey)

Key factors:

1. Oil dependency
2. Growing influence of Israel vs. Arab countries
3. Rise of Socialism (Egypt, Syria, Iraq
4. Growing USSR influence

5. Rise of anti-colonial influence

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ORIGINS OF COLD WAR

11 key factors.
a) Riga Axioms 1920s
b) Disagreements about Europe (1946)
c) Stalin’s Speech (9 Feb 46)
d) Long Telegrams (22 Feb 46)
e) Containment Theory
f) Fulton Speech (5 Mar 46)
g) Iran Crisis (1946)
h) Turkey Crisis (1946)
i) Greece Crisis (1946)
j) Clifford-Elsey Report (1946)

a) Riga Axioms

Historians disagree on the date when the Cold War began, but they agree generally that the issue which gave it life and
sustained it was Eastern Europe. Still, for Daniel Yergin, the open rift which occurred in 1945 rested, in large measure, on a
body of theory about the U.S.S.R. which had dominated the thought of Soviet experts in the American government for a full
generation. Yergin defines this official anti-Soviet dogma as the Riga axioms, named after the Baltic port of Latvia, where
United States diplomats gathered information on Bolshevik Russia during the years of non-recognition (1920-1933).

In 1945 a perception of Russia as a potentially cooperative great power ("the Yalta axioms") contended among American
policymakers with the perception of an implacable Soviet ideology bent on world conquest ("the Riga axioms" as developed
by Foreign Service officers in the 1920s and early 1930s and reintroduced after Roosevelt's death). By 1947 the Riga axioms
were unchallenged.

The Riga alumni, who included George F. Kennan, Charles E. Bohlen, Elbridge Durbrow, and Loy W. Henderson, shared the
conviction that Soviet foreign policy flowed directly from Marxist-Leninist ideology, that the horrors of Stalinist rule within
Russia would produce external policies equally totalitarian in purpose. The USSR, in short, was a revolutionary state,
committed to unrelenting ideological warfare in its drive for world mastery. With such a country, the Riga alumni agreed,
the West could never coexist with any success. What broke this group’s influence, at least momentarily, was the Nazi
invasion of Russia in June 1941, for this prompted President Franklin D. Roosevelt, much to the dismay of some Soviet
experts, to support the Russian military cause.

b) Disagreement about Europe

Russia’s dominance of Eastern Europe in 1945 propelled the United States and the U.S.S.R. into an inescapable confrontation
across a weakened and disorganized Western Europe. No longer could the common enemy sustain the Grand Alliance. “That
tie,” admitted Stalin, “no longer exists, and we shall have to find a new basis for our close relations in the future. And that
will not be easy,” It proved to be impossible. The task of disengaging massive armies from the heart of Europe, where they
had met under conditions that engaged the long-term interests of the major powers, was more than traditional diplomacy
could accomplish. For the United States and Britain, the best of all worlds still conformed overwhelmingly to that fashioned
at Versailles. For the Soviets, the postwar era required, if it would satisfy Russia’s historic purposes, the elimination of the
Versailles Treaty’s essential provisions, especially its Eastern European settlements and its reaffirmation of Western
predominance in Europe. This massive divergence of purpose, rendered inflexible by a profound conflict over the ultimate
intentions implied by competing ideological imperatives, gradually disintegrated into a Cold War.

Russia’s postwar behavior had permitted the Riga alumni to stage a massive counterattack on the wartime perceptions of
the U.S.S.R., to reassert their convictions of Soviet expansionism, and to build an overpowering anti-Soviet consensus within

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the foreign policy bureaucracy. Their easy intellectual triumphs reflected their own high professional standing in the
government as well as an international environment which encouraged distrust of the Kremlin. The pressures on President
Harry S. Truman to adopt a hard line toward the Kremlin were profound, and Yergin records them with fascinating detail.
With the exception of Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson, who favored recognition of the Soviet sphere, all of Truman’s
advisers agreed that the Russians, if treated firmly, could be brought to an acceptance of American objectives for
postwar Europe.

c) Long Telegram

George Kennan (Riga Axiom representative), the American charge d’affaires in Moscow, sends an 8,000-word telegram to
the Department of State detailing his views on the Soviet Union, and U.S. policy toward the communist state. Kennan’s
analysis provided one of the most influential underpinnings for America’s Cold War policy of containment.

The lengthy memorandum began with the assertion that the Soviet Union could not foresee “permanent peaceful
coexistence” with the West. This “neurotic view of world affairs” was a manifestation of the “instinctive Russian sense of
insecurity.” As a result, the Soviets were deeply suspicious of all other nations and believed that their security could only be
found in “patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power.” Kennan was convinced that the Soviets would try
to expand their sphere of influence, and he pointed to Iran and Turkey as the most likely immediate trouble areas. In
addition, Kennan believed the Soviets would do all they could to “weaken power and influence of Western Powers on
colonial backward, or dependent peoples.” Fortunately, although the Soviet Union was “impervious to logic of reason,” it
was “highly sensitive to logic of force.” Therefore, it would back down “when strong resistance is encountered at any point.”
The United States and its allies, he concluded, would have to offer that resistance.

Kennan’s telegram caused a sensation in Washington. Stalin’s aggressive speeches and threatening gestures toward Iran
and Turkey in 1945-1946 led the Truman administration to decide to take a tougher stance and rely on the nation’s military
and economic muscle rather than diplomacy in dealing with the Soviets. These factors guaranteed a warm reception for
Kennan’s analysis. His opinion that Soviet expansionism needed to be contained through a policy of “strong resistance”
provided the basis for America’s Cold War diplomacy through the next two decades.

Kennan’s thought in a nutshell:
• The USSR is inherently expansionist

• Soviet expansionism has to be contained in regions vital to US interests

• Played a major role in the development of Cold War during decades
Advocate of a ‘Policy of containment’ (key to
Truman’s Doctrine)

• Later in his life he became more moderate and prone to establish open dialogue with the USSR

d) Containment Theory

U.S. policy for limiting Soviet expansion had developed with remarkable speed. Soon after the collapse of hopes for world
peace in 1945 and 1946, the Truman administration had accepted the danger posed by Soviet aggression and resolved to
shore up noncommunist defenses at their most critical points. This policy, known as containment, a term suggested by its
principal framer, George Kennan, resulted in the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan, as well as in the decision to make
the western zones of Germany (later West Germany) a pillar of strength.

Kennan showed that Soviet communism and American-style capitalism were at odds with each other, and were destined to
clash. For their part, Kennan argued that Soviet ideology would push the Russians to do several things. The Soviets would
attempt to undermine capitalist societies in the West and aggressively expand their territory unless they were checked by
outside pressure.

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To counter the Soviet threat, he continued, the United States should 'contain' communism and halt its expansionism
wherever it attempted to advance around the globe. Containment, however, shouldn't involve direct military confrontation
between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, Kennan asserted, because atomic warfare could spell nuclear disaster. Containment
strategy also couldn't embrace cooperation with the Soviets, because communist extremism made that unlikely.

The answer, for Kennan, was a U.S. response of 'unalterable counterforce' over the long term. If America steadily resisted
and contained Soviet expansionism year after year and decade after decade, the Soviet advance would eventually be
stopped. This policy of containment, Kennan concluded, would inevitably lead to the dissolution of the Soviet Union itself.

When the Soviet Union countered this development in June 1948 by blocking all surface routes into the western-occupied
zones of Berlin, Britain and the United States supplied the sectors by air for almost a year until the Soviet Union called off
the blockade. A logical culmination of U.S. policy was the creation in 1949 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO),
a military alliance among 12 (later 16) nations to resist Soviet aggression.

However, containment worked less well in Asia. In December 1945 Truman sent General Marshall to China with instructions
to work out an agreement between the communist rebels and the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek. This was an
impossible task, and in the subsequent fighting Mao Zedong’s communist forces prevailed. The Nationalist government fled
to Taiwan in 1949, and the United States then decided to concentrate its East Asian policy upon strengthening
occupied Japan, with much better results.

e) Iran Crisis

In 1941 two Allied countries (Britain and Russia) occupied Iran
The geopolitical purpose was not only to rely in the Arctic
Convoy and allow supply lines to the USSR from the south. The agreement among the Allies is that six months after the
conflict all Allied troops would be evacuated.

The USSR did not withdraw its troops, which was seen as a provocation by Britain and the US
Additionally, two new
republics (Azerbaijan and Mahabad) were born (with USSR support) from former Iranian territory. A short conflict between
Iran and USSR ended with the withdrawal of Soviet troops.



HOW AND WHY THE COLD WAR ENDED

**Possible exam questions: WHY THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED? Or WHY THE COLD WAR ENDED?

Combination of 6 factors.
1. Gorbachev policies
2. US Strategy Defence Initiative
3. The disaster of Afghanistan (Mujahideen financed by the US (R.Reagan) to fight against the communists). AlQaeda
(Osama Bin Laden)
4. Nationalist movements
5. Aging and less ideological Politburo
6. Inefficient economy (guns vs. butter dilemma)

1. Gorbachev policies
Gorbachev, the last leader of the USSR, came to power in 1985 with a vision of reform led by two ideas: perestroika and
glasnost. Under Gorbachev’s plan for perestroika, the Soviet Union would begin to move towards a hybrid Communist-
Capitalist system (like modern China).

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• Reforms to the economy were coupled with a reorganization of the Party elite that would bring younger
members to the forefront
• Glasnost aimed to relax
• Personal restrictions to Soviet people
Gorbachev’s
• Reforms did more to speed the fall of the Soviet Union than they did to save it

2. US Strategy Defense Initative:
• Ronald Reagan became president in Jan 1981 and became a declared and harsh opponent to the USSR (call it
‘evil empire’) He led a massive increase in American military spending, as well as R&D better weapons
• Reagan fostered the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which nullified the Soviet nuclear arsenal by destroying
missiles as they fell and made a nuclear war theoretically winnable for the US
• The USSR was unable to catch-up with this program

3. The disaster of Afghanistan
Though the Afghanistan war initially was visualized by Soviet leaders as a small-scale intervention, it grew into a
decade-long war involving nearly one million Soviet soldiers, killing and injuring some tens of thousands of them.
The repeated failures in this war changed the Soviet leadership’s perception of the efficacy of using force to keep
non-Soviet nationalities within the Union (perception effects), devastated the morale and legitimacy of the army
(military effects), disrupted domestic cohesion (legitimacy effects), and accelerated glasnost (glasnost effects).
War failures weakened the military and conservative anti-reform forces and accelerated glasnost and perestroika.
Import- antly, these failures demonstrated that the Soviet army was not invincible, thereby encouraging non-
Russian republics to push for independence with little fear of a military backlash.

4. Nationalist movements
• The USSR was a very complex state, composed of many different republics (often resentful to Russia for
historical reasons)
Dozens of oppressed ethnicities, languages, and cultures, created tensions along the
outlying provinces, especially those in continental Europe and Central Asia
• During the 1980s, nationalist movements in Eastern Europe drove regime change in Poland, and the movement
soon spread to neighboring countries in Eastern Europe

• Former Soviet parts began to split along ethnic lines, and separatist movements grew in Ukraine, Belarus and
the Baltic States

5. Aging and less ideological Politburó
• Khruschev was the last of the Soviet leaders to work directly under the leadership of the original
revolutionaries, and from 1963, the Politburo drifted in conservative and inconsistent policies
• Increasing wealth and power of the Communist party elite became evident, and did not help to their popularity
• Younger soviet generations began to disengage from communist orthodoxy and ambitioned new material and
political horizons

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6. Inefficient economy (bread v. butter)
• The USSR had a rigid economy, led by central planning and limited exposure to world economy in a moment
of higher global dynamism
Economic resources had to be consistently devoted (up to 15-25% of GDP) to catch-
up with the geopoliYcal logics of the Cold War, puyng pressure to consumpYons goods
• Availability of certain food, clothes or shoes were not uncommon, which led to long lines, scarcity of basic
goods and public discontentment

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SESSION 6.

ONE OF THE (UNLIKELY) LEADERS OF 1979, HOW DID HE/SHE SHAPED REGIONAL/GLOBAL AFFAIRS

Take your selected game changer of 1979, and explain why he or she was important in shaping geopolitical events:
• Ayatollah Khomeini: Iran
• Margaret Thatcher: first woman to become prime minister, conservative revolution
• Deng Xiaoping: changed to mixed economy
• Pope John Paul II
Important: you only need to be able to explain one!

1. Margaret Thatcher

Introduction: Margaret Thatcher as a game changer

Margaret Thatcher (1925-2013), the United Kingdom’s first and thus far only female prime minister, served from 1979 until
1990. During her time in office, she reduced the influence of trade unions, privatized certain industries, scaled back public
benefits and changed the terms of political debate, much like her friend and ideological ally, U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
Nicknamed the “Iron Lady,” she opposed Soviet communism and fought a war to maintain control of the Falkland Islands.
The longest-serving British prime minister of the 20th century, Thatcher was eventually pressured into resigning by
members of her own Conservative Party

Margaret Thatcher as prime minister

Margaret Thatcher rejected the economic theories of John Maynard Keynes, who advocated deficit spending during periods
of high unemployment, instead preferring the monetarist approach of Chicago economist Milton Friedman. At her first
conference speech, she chastised the Labour Party on economic grounds, saying, “A man’s right to work as he will, to spend
what he earns, to own property, to have the state as servant and not as master—these are the British inheritance.” Soon
after, she attacked the Soviet Union as “bent on world dominance.” A Soviet army newspaper responded by calling her “the
Iron Lady,” a nickname she immediately embraced.
The Conservatives, helped out by a “winter of discontent” in which numerous unions went on strike, won the 1979 election,
and Thatcher became prime minister. During her first term, the government lowered direct taxes while increasing taxes on
spending, sold off public housing, put in austerity measures and made other reforms, even as rising inflation and
unemployment caused Thatcher’s popularity to temporarily wane. In April 1982 Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, a
sparsely populated British colony located 300 miles from Argentina and 8,000 miles from the United Kingdom. Thatcher
dispatched troops to the area. On May 2, a British submarine controversially sank an Argentine cruiser that was outside of
an official exclusion zone, killing over 300 people on board. Later in the month, British troops landed near San Carlos Bay in
East Falkland and, despite persistent air attacks, were able to capture the capital of Port Stanley and end the fighting.
The war and an improving economy propelled Thatcher to a second term in 1983. This time around, her government took
on the trade unions, requiring them to hold a secret ballot before any work stoppage and refusing to make any concessions
during a yearlong miners’ strike. In what became a key part of her legacy, Thatcher also privatized British Telecom, British
Gas, British Airways, Rolls-Royce and a number of other state-owned companies.
On the foreign policy front, Thatcher often found herself allied with U.S. President Ronald Reagan, whom she later described
as “the supreme architect of the West’s Cold War victory.” Her relationship with her own continent’s leaders was more
complicated, particularly since she believed the Europe Union should be a free-trade area rather than a political endeavor.
“That such an unnecessary and irrational project as building a European superstate was ever embarked upon will seem in
future years to be perhaps the greatest folly of the modern era,” she wrote in her 2002 book “Statecraft.” In Asia,
meanwhile, she negotiated the eventual transfer of Hong Kong to the Chinese. In Africa she had a mixed record, facilitating
the end of white minority rule in Zimbabwe but opposing sanctions against apartheid South Africa.

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Margaret Thatcher’s fall from power

After Thatcher was elected to a third term in 1987, her government lowered income tax rates to a postwar low. It also
pushed through an unpopular “community charge” that was met with street protests and high levels of nonpayment. On
November 14, 1990, former Defense Minister Michael Heseltine challenged her for leadership of the party, partly due to
differences of opinion on the European Union. Thatcher won the first ballot but by too small of a margin for outright victory.
That night, her cabinet members visited her one by one and urged her to resign. She officially stepped down on November
28 after helping to assure that John Major and not Heseltine would replace her.
Thatcher remained in parliament until 1992, at which time she entered the largely ceremonial House of Lords and began to
write her memoirs. Though she stopped appearing in public after suffering a series of small strokes in the early 2000s, her
influence remained strong. In fact, many of her free market policies have since been adopted, not only by Conservatives,
but also by Labour Party leaders like Tony Blair. In 2011, the former prime minister was the subject of an award-winning
(and controversial) biographical film, “The Iron Lady,” which depicted her political rise and fall. Margaret Thatcher died on
April 8, 2013, at the age of 87.

2. Pope John Paul II.

Game changer that allows us to talk about “the end of history”: Pope John Paul II and the collapse of the Soviet Union

Introduction: Pope John Paul II as a game changer

On October 22, 1978, John Paul II was elected as Pope, and it didn’t take long until he started showing he had his part in re-
establishing the papacy as a major force in the geopolitics of the world, which is often underestimated and largely
unrecognized. His powerful impact on the church and on the world at large will be carried over well into the new millennium.
As he became pope at a critical time for Eastern Europe and the communist bloc, his part in the events of the 1970s and
’80s needs to be appreciated to understand the so-called “end of history” and the part he took in it as a “game changer”.

John Paul’s most lasting effect in terms of geopolitics is the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe through a series of
mostly peaceful political revolutions that swept the region in 1989. Though he certainly did not achieve this single-handedly,
he was a key figure in the unfolding drama.

The visit to Poland

The celebrations to commemorate Stanislaus in Poland were scheduled for May 1979, some eight months after Wojtyla
(JPII) ascended as supreme pontiff. Now as Pope John Paul II, he intended to return home to participate in those events.
The Communist Party sought to block the visit but only managed to defer the date.

The end result, however, was a major triumph for the church. Instead of visiting two cities over a two-day period, John Paul
II was now able to visit six cities over a nine-day period. The fact that this visit was to be a month late did not matter. The
church simply extended the celebrations by a month. The result was a public relations disaster for the Communist Party.

In June 1979, less than a year after his election, John Paul visited his native Poland. In massive public liturgies and gatherings,
he reminded Poles of their long history and Christian heritage (which the Soviet regime had tried to erase). Within a year,
the illegal labour union Solidarity* was born. Led by shipyard worker Lech Walesa and encouraged by the enthusiastic
support of the pope, the union drew the world’s attention to the repressive policies of the Soviet Union. The Polish
government was forced to negotiate with the union and in early 1989 agreed to free elections.

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The solidarity movement

Solidarity became known to the Western world as the name of a Polish trade union that blossomed from the Gdansk
shipyards in the late 1970s. Its champion was Lech Walesa, who later became president of postcommunist Poland.

But Solidarity was more than a trade union, it “was really a social movement, motivated by civil and national demands as
much as by economic and social ones. If it had one overriding aim, it could be summed up thus: to restore dignity to life
and work, and to demand the justice and truthfulness which went with it.”.

The momentum of these events, supported by the pope’s continual insistence on respect for human rights, led to the
political transformation of Eastern Europe. By the end of 1991, more than a dozen countries had declared their
independence and the Soviet Union was dissolved. This alone “makes him one of the most significant figures in the history
of the 20th century,”.

Pope John Paul II had indeed allowed his fellow Polish citizens to see for themselves, and become even more aware than
they already were of how strong and generalised the opposition to the communist regime had grown, of how strong civil
society already was.

Not being able to refuse him the permission to visit his native country, the regime was forced to tolerate gigantic
demonstrations – the first free ones for more than thirty years in the Soviet bloc – where the vast majority of the population
took the opportunity to show all its estrangement from the political establishment. And that was a huge boost for all the
civil societies in all countries of the Warsaw pact, beginning with Poland itself and its Solidarity movement.

This does not exactly mean that communism collapse because of Pope John Paul II. Perhaps, what happened is that it was
no longer able to compete with the new Western economy based on new digital technologies, as the large-scale
introduction of these technologies was plainly incompatible with a totalitarian control over their population.

But the popularity and, even more, the charismatic personality of religious leaders can sometimes be linked to a social
change, in this case, the empowerment of the Polish people in demonstrating against the Soviet domination.


THE NUCLEAR TRIAD

The three-branched nuclear capability and delivery system aims to reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of
a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack. It also ensures a credible threat of a second strike, and thus increases a
nation's nuclear deterrence.

Three alternative lunching platforms:

• ICBMs: Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles
o Land base
o Vulnerable to first strike
o Accurate
o Less expensive
• SLBMs: Submarine-launched ballistic missiles
o Sea based
o Quick response
o Expensive
o Survives first strike
o Unpredictable and difficult to detect
• Strategic Bombers: Air-based nuclear delivery system

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o Air based
o Flexible
o Slow
o Vulnerable
o Accurate

The nuclear triad emerged as a strategic concept during the Cold War as the surest means of deterring another nuclear
power from attacking the United States. ICBMs act as the first-response weapon; ballistic missile submarines act as an
undetectable, and therefore survivable, second strike; and strategic bombers offer the flexibility of first or second strike but
can be most easily recalled. Each component complicates an adversary’s decision to attack. In theory, an adversary will not
strike unless it can overcome each of the three components of the triad and the expense and low likelihood of success
deters it from attacking first.

The idea of the Triad Doctrine was that each should be able independently to impose unacceptable damage on the Soviet
Union. If two legs were destroyed the third could retaliate. The Nuclear Triad Club was formed by USA, China, India and
Russia.

The purpose of maintaining the triad was to complicate Soviet efforts to launch a disarming nuclear attack against the United
States: an attack that maximized destruction of land based ICBMs, for example, would not harm SLBMs deployed safely at
sea. The triad also protected the United States from an unexpected technological development or a catastrophic failure in
a specific weapon system. For instance, if bombers became vulnerable to a new type of air defense or if they were grounded
because of some structural problem, the other two legs of the triad would still be able to deter the Soviet Union. In theory,
each leg of the triad was supposed to be able to launch a second-strike attack capable of inflicting an amount of damage
unacceptable to the Soviet leaders, thereby deterring nuclear attack and generating crisis stability. Each leg of the triad was
supposed to be able to absorb a Soviet nuclear strike and still "assure destruction" of the Soviet Union.

Brief history

For a time after World War II, America held the upper hand with regards to nuclear superiority. It used this threat of "massive
retaliation" as a means to deter Soviet aggression. By the late 1950s, the Soviet Union had built up a convincing nuclear
arsenal that could be delivered on the territory of the United States and Western Europe.

By the mid-1960s, unilateral deterrence gave way to "mutual deterrence," a situation of strategic stalemate. The
superpowers would refrain from attacking each other because of the certainty of mutual assured destruction, better known
as MAD. This theory is still a major part of the defense policies of the United States and Russia.

Both superpowers recognized that the first requirement of an effective deterrent was that it should survive or "ride out" a
surprise "counterforce" targeted attack without being decimated--a task made difficult by the ever increasing numbers of
accurate delivery systems, "penetration aids," and multiple warheads.

This led to the foundation of the nuclear triad, or use of three different types of delivery systems (bombers, missiles, and
submarines) to assure that a second-strike capability existed able to cause massive destruction to the attacking nation.

The reality is that most of the direct conflict associated with the US- Soviet rivalry during the Cold War took place in Asia. If
the US-Chinese rivalry is added to the equation, nuclear doctrine and strategy were tested far more often in the Asian
theater than they were in Europe. In addition to (or perhaps because of ) the almost constant existence of conflict in Asia,
the United States also had the problem of potentially unstable or ill-equipped allies who were considering development of
their own nuclear arsenals. At one point or another, the United States engaged Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Australia
in quiet but firm efforts to convince them that pursuit of nuclear weapons was unnecessary due to US extended deterrence

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Current challenges

From the policy perspective, the US “victory” in the Cold War has come, for many, to represent clear evidence that the
nuclear triad, and US strategic deterrence in general, have been successful. As a result, the United States continues to
maintain the same general framework developed over 60 years ago to combat an aggressive Soviet Union that no longer
exists.

For over 50 years, the structure of the US nuclear triad has remained the same. Relying on strategic bombers,
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), the United States has sought to
deter strategic threats from a variety of sources. The current threat environment, however, is radically different from what
was being considered when the triad was created. From the continued evolution of terrorism to the increasing threat of
cyberattacks, both the nature of the threats facing the United States and the deterrence frameworks necessary to counter
them have changed. The United States needs to critically reassess the current triad with an eye toward eliminating
redundant or potentially ineffective delivery systems such as the strategic nuclear bomber.

Because of the general transition from states to non-state actors as the primary threat and the associated transition in focus
from nuclear conflict to terrorism and cyberwar, the utility of the US nuclear deterrent has diminished. There is no doubt
that the global war on terrorism has illustrated the continued essential need of strategic bombing capabilities within
conventional theaters. It is when one considers their decreasing effectiveness as a delivery platform, in conjunction with
increasing costs relative to the other platforms, that the overall viability of the strategic bomber must be questioned.

While there is certainly a need to maintain traditional strategic deterrence vis-à-vis states such as Russia and China, the
threat of terrorism and irregular warfare, as represented by increasing conflict with weak states and non-state actors, has
changed the dynamic within which the United States promotes its current deterrence policy. This perspective is highlighted
further by the rise of both the cyber and space domains as areas in need of significant investments in deterrence
capabilities. The United States must begin to recognize that despite its enormous economic strength, the ability to invest in
a truly dynamic deterrence framework remains limited. It must begin to recognize that US deterrence efforts need to
address new and more dynamic types of threats and attacks.

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SESSION 7. USA

EXAMPLES ON HOW TRUMP COULD GO AGAINST THE ORDER OF 1945 (NATO; CLOSER TIES WITH RUSSIA, FREE
TRADE AND ONE-CHINA POLICY) à Exam question: be able to give three examples and explain them.

NATO
Trump has been very critical of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization which has been a cornerstone for American foreign
policy for more than 60 years. He has attacked the organization by stating it is obsolete and characterized its members as
ungrateful allies who only benefit from the United States.
From a perspective Trump’s rhetoric only gives a voice to long standing American concerns about most NATO members who
do not meet their goals of spending at least 2% of its GDP on defense while the United States is the largest spender in the
World. Recently the Defense Secretary (James Mattis) traveled to the NATO headquarters in Brussels to deliver Trump’s
warning. He told NATO members that Washington would create a more moderate commitment to the alliance if others
don’t take the same measures to increase their defense spending. Only five members out of the 27 meet the spending
requirement (US, UK, Estonia, Greece and Poland). Mr.Mattis also hailed NATO as a fundamental bedrock of trans-Atlantic
cooperation allaying European concern over Trump’s previous comments about the Alliance.

The true meaning of this is not clear. Many assume the US would not weaken the alliance by limiting its own contributions
and many believe that the warning done will be enough to prevent any American action, nevertheless it is the first time an
American leader has taken such defensive action in NATO.

Closer ties with Russia
During the US election campaign, Trump praised Russia and its president for its strong leadership with whom he would love
to have a good relationship. This all occurred before US Intelligence agencies determined Russia was responsible for the
Democratic Party hacking during the campaign. Trump has dismissed all publications that Russia allegedly has compromising
material on him saying these are “fake news”. Michael Flynn, the national security adviser resigned after misleading Vice-
President Pence over whether he discussed sanctions with Russia’s ambassador in the weeks prior to the inauguration,
which would violate a law that prohibits private citizens from conducting diplomacy.
American-Russian relations have become significantly strained during the Obama administration over Ukraine, Syria and
cyber-hacking. This appears to be a bilateral relationship where the dynamics could change significantly under Trump’s
administration.

End to free trade
Donald Trump's trade policies would amount to the single biggest change to the way America does business with the rest
of the world in decades.
He has threatened to scrap a number of existing free trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement
between the US, Canada and Mexico, which he blames for job losses. He has even suggested withdrawing the US from the
World Trade Organization. Since winning the election, he has focused on threatening companies, particularly automobile
makers, that he will slap a tariff of 35% on goods manufactured in Mexico.

On his first day in office, Mr Trump abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade deal brokered by
President Obama and representing 40% of the world's economic output.
The deal had yet to be ratified by a divided Congress, but Mr Trump's executive order withdrew US participation altogether.
The thrust behind his trade policy will be to create jobs in the US, close the trade deficit, and get "good deals" for Americans.
China, in particular, is in the crosshairs, and not just on trade.

End to One-China policy
After breaking decades of US protocol by taking a call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in early December, Mr Trump
has agreed to honour the so-called "One China" policy.

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Beijing sees Taiwan as a province, and denying it the trappings of an independent state is a key priority of Chinese foreign
policy, something the US has recognised with its "One China" policy.
Though the US is Taiwan's main military ally, no US president or president-elect had spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader
for decades.

But Mr Trump reversed his hardline stance with China and backed the longstanding "One China" agreement during a call
with Chinese President Xi Jinping in early February. A statement from Beijing said China appreciated Mr Trump's
acknowledgement of the One China policy, calling the two nations "co-operative partners" who could "push bilateral
relations to a historic new high".
Taiwan, meanwhile, said it would continue "close contact" with the US, pointing out that maintaining good ties with
Washington and Beijing was key to regional stability.

Mr Trump is showing a degree of pragmatism on other China-related issues. He has backed away from a previous pledge to
label China a currency manipulator when he takes office. He now says he will "talk to them first".

Iran nuclear accord could be rethought
For President Obama, the deal that saw sanctions against Iran lifted in exchange for guarantees it would not pursue nuclear
weapons was a "historic understanding". But for Donald Trump, echoing Republican concerns, it was "the worst deal I think
I've ever seen negotiated".

He had said dismantling it would be his "number one priority" but now says he doesn't want to specify what he will do.
"Who plays cards where you show everybody the hand before you play it?" he said in an interview with the Times.
Getting rid of the deal would have a huge impact on the Middle East. Iran is a key player in the Syrian conflict and a rival of
Saudi Arabia and Israel, for instance. Already Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has urged Trump to stay committed to the
nuclear deal. He suggested the US would have to respect the accord given that it was thrashed out with several world
powers. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was more blunt. "If they tear it up, we will burn it," The Associated
Press quoted him as saying.
Relations to the countries did not get off to a good start after the Trump presidency began - the US placed new sanctions
on Iran after it conducted a ballistic missile test. "Iran is playing with fire," President Trump tweeted.

More nuclear weapons in Asia?
A Donald Trump presidency raises major security questions in Asia. Not only did he shock China with comments on Taiwan
before his inauguration, but his secretary of state Rex Tillerson has spoken of blocking China's access to artificial islands it
has been building in the South China Sea, prompting warnings of a "military clash" from a state-run newspaper.
Japan and South Korea have both been singled out by Mr Trump for relying too much on the US. He has even said they
would benefit from having their own nuclear arsenals.
Then there is the region's renegade state, North Korea, which is currently developing its own nuclear weapons. Mr Trump
faces the task of curbing those ambitions, something that has eluded successive US leaders. How he might do this is unclear
but he has proposed negotiating directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
In response to a recent announcement that North Korea was close to testing long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear
warheads, Mr Trump simply tweeted : "It won't happen."
Whether he has a strategy in mind is unknown, but US politics' most unpredictable president tackling the world's most
unpredictable state makes North Korea a likely flashpoint in the coming years.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY ISSUED BY TRUMP. 4 PILLARS: PROTECT THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE, PROMOTE PROSPERITY, PRESERVING PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH; ADVANCE ADVANCE AMERICAN
INFLUENCE

In Trump’s National Security Strategy there are four major pillars: to protect the American People, to promote prosperity,
preserve peace through strength and advance the American Influence.

1. Protect the American People

In reference to the protection of the American people Trump has stated that “Americans have long recognized the benefits
of an interconnected world, where information and commerce flow freely. Engaging with the world however does not mean
the US should abandon its rights and duties as a sovereign state or compromise its security”. He also adds that while North
Korea seeks the capability to kill millions of Americans with nuclear weapons, Iran supports terrorist groups and Jihadist
terrorist organization are determined to attack the US and radicalize Americans. All of this being accompanied by the lack
of action of non-state actors who undermine the social order. “Adversaries target sourced of American strength including
our democratic system and our economy. They steal and exploit our intellectual property, interfere in our political process
and target our aviation and maritime sectors”. He calls for the reestablishment of lawful control of borders as a first attempt
to protect the “American Homeland”. Also, he states that “we” must prevent nuclear, chemical, radiological and biological
attacks, as well as block terrorists from reaching the homeland and reduce drug and human trafficking. The national security
strategy focuses on securing US borders and territory, highlighting the following measures:

Defend against weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
Through the Priority Actions of defending against weapons of mass destruction and that the priority actions are to enhance
missile defense, detecting and disrupting weapons of mass destruction, enhancing counterproliferation measures and
target terrorists that use weapons of mass destruction.

Combat of biothreats and pandemics
Through the Priority Actions of detecting and containing biothreats at their source, supporting biomedical innovation and
improving emergency response.

Strengthening of Border Control and Immigration Policy
Through the Priority Actions of enhancement of border security, enhanced vetting (vetting prospective immigrants, refugees
and other foreign visitors to identify individuals who pose a risk to national security), enforcing immigration laws, bolstering
transportation security. It is believed that terrorists, drug traffickers, and criminal cartels exploit porous borders and
threaten U.S. security and public safety. As such, the United States affirms their sovereign right to determine who should
enter the country and under what circumstances.

The pursuit of threats at their source (mainly to defeat Jihadist Terrorists)
Through the Priority Actions of the disruption of terror plots, taking direct action through the US military and other operating
agencies, elimination of terrorist safe havens, severing the source of strength by disrupting the financial, material and
personnel supply chains of terrorist organizations and combating radicalization and recruitment in communities.

Dismantle of transnational criminal organizations
Through the Priority Actions of improving strategic planning and intelligence, defending communities by supporting public
health in order to halt the growth of illicit drug use, in depth defense through US agencies and countering cyber criminals.

Keeping America Safe in the Cyber Era
Through the Priority Actions of identification and prioritization of the risks, building defensible government networks,
deterring and disrupting malicious cyber actors, improving information sharing and sensing, deploying layered defenses.

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Promotion of American resilience
Through the Priority Actions of improving risk management, building a culture of preparedness, improving planning and
incentivizing information sharing.

2. Promote American Prosperity

Rejuvenate the Domestic Economy
Through the Priority Actions of reducing regulatory burdens by eliminating unnecessary regulations that stifle growth,
promoting tax reforms that create simpler and more fair taxes that are pro-growth, improving American infrastructure,
reducing the debt through fiscal responsibility and by supporting education and apprenticeship programs.

Promote Free, Fair and Reciprocal Economic Relationships
Through the Priority Actions of adopting new trade and investment agreements and modernizing existing ones, countering
unfair trade practices, countering foreign corruption, working with like-minded partners and facilitating new market
opportunities,

Lead in Research, Technology, Invention and Innovation
Through the Priority Actions of understanding worldwide science and technology trends, attract and retain inventors and
innovators, leveraging private capital and expertise to build and innovate and rapidly fielding inventions and innovations by
regaining the element of “surprise”.

Promote and Protect National Security Innovation Base
Through the Priority Actions of understanding the challenges by developing a capability to integrate, monitor and better
understand the national security implications of unfair industry trends and the actions of rivals. Other actions include
protecting intellectual property, tightening visa procedures in order to reduce economic theft by non-traditional intelligence
collectors, protecting data and underlying infrastructure.

Embrace Energy Dominance
Through the Priority Actions of reducing barriers by promoting clean and safe development energy sources while limiting
regulatory burdens that encumber energy production and constrain economic growth, promoting exports, ensuring energy
security, attaining universal energy access and furthering America’s technological edge in energy including nuclear
technology and better carbon-capture technologies.

3. Preserve Peace Through Strength

Renew Capabilities:
Military
Through the Priority Actions of modernization so that the military can defeat their adversaries by using weapon systems
that overmatch theirs. Also through the acquisition of new approaches to make better deals on behalf of the American
people to avoid cost overruns and eliminate bloated bureaucracies. Furthermore, through the increase in force capacity by
growing the force while modernizing and ensuring readiness. Also through improving readiness and retaining a full-spectrum
force.

Defense of the Industrial Base
Through the Priority Actions of understanding the problem through an evaluation of the defense industrial base,
encouraging homeland investment and protecting and growing critical skills in the trade of high-technology.

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Nuclear Forces
Through the Priority Actions of sustaining US nuclear weapons, modernizing US Nuclear Forces and infrastructure and
maintaining stable deterrence by avoiding miscalculation through discussions with other states to build predictable
relationships that reduce a nuclear risk.

Space
Through the Priority Actions of advancing space as a priority domain goals and development strategy that integrates all
space sectors to support innovation and American Leadership, promoting space commerce (by simplifying and updating
regulations for commercial space activity) and maintaining lead in exploration.

Cyberspace
Through the Priority Actions of improving attribution, accountability and response by investing in capabilities to support
and improve their ability to attribute cyber-attacks, by enhancing cyber tools and expertise and improving integration and
agility of authorities and procedures across the US.

Intelligence
Through the Priority Actions of improving their understanding to prevent the theft of sensitive and proprietary information,
harnessing all information at their disposal and fusing information and analysis.

Diplomatic and Statecraft:
Competitive Diplomacy
Through the Priority Actions of preserving a forward diplomatic presence by maintaining face to face relations, advancing
American Interests (diplomats must build and lead coalitions that advance shared interests and articulate America’s vision
in international platforms) and catalyzing opportunities.

Tools of Economic Diplomacy
Through the Priority Actions of reinforcing economic ties with allies and partners, deploying economic pressure on security
threats and by severing sources of funding by denying revenue to terrorist and other illicit actors.

Information Statecraft
Through the Priority Actions of prioritizing the competition by improving their understanding of how adversaries gain
informational and psychological advantages, driving effective communications, activating local networks, sharing
responsibility and by upgrading, tailoring and innovating,

4. Advance American Influence

Encouraging Aspiring Partners:
Developing Countries
Through the Priority Actions of mobilizing resources so that US companies have incentives to capitalize on opportunities in
developing countries and pursuing that the US government does not become an obstacle for US companies wanting to
expand in the developing world. Furthermore, by capitalizing on new technologies in their diplomatic and development
programs in order to reduce corruption, increase transparency and help ensure that money reaches its intended destination.
Finally, through the action of incentivizing reforms and encouraging states to improve governance, rule of law and
sustainable development.

Fragile States
Through the Priority Actions of commiting to selectivity by giving priority to strengthening states where state weakness or
failure would magnify threats to the American homeland, working with reformers to solve political problems at the root of

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most state fragility and by synchronizing actions through the use of diplomatic, economic and military tools simultaneously
when assisting aspiring partners.

Achieve Better Outcomes in Multilateral Forums
Through the Priority Actions of exercising leadership in political and security bodies, shaping and reforming international
financial and trade institutions, ensuring common domains remain free by providing leadership and technology to shape
and govern common domains and supporting peaceful resolution of disputes under International Law but will use all of its
instruments to defend US interests and ensure common domains remain free. Furthermore by protecting a free and open
internet.

Champion American Values
Through the Priority Actions of supporting the dignity of individuals, defeating transnational terrorist organizations,
empowering women and youth through the protection of women’s rights, as well as protecting religious freedom and
religious minorities and reducing human suffering by catalyzing international responses to man-made and natural disasters
and provide expertise where needed.

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SESSION 8. CHINA

THE NEW SILK ROAD

The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, also known as the One Belt and One Road Initiative,
(OBOR) is a development strategy proposed by the Chinese government that focuses on connectivity and cooperation
between Eurasian countries. It is meant to increase Chinese construction of ports in countries along maritime routes that
are already used in seaborne trade. Through this initiative, China is reviving the historic Silk Road trade route that runs
between its own borders and Europe. Announced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the idea is that two new trade corridors
– one overland, the other by sea – will connect the country with its neighbors in the west: Central Asia, the Middle East and
Europe. US analysts coined the term 'String of Pearls to this Chinese doctrine that aims to project economic and military
influence.

There are 2 main objectives with this project:

• Geo-economic: they want to overcome the limitations of the GDP composition, by co-investing with other countries
(investment expanded), expanding also exports
o The new trade route would serve as an outlet for China’s vast industrial overcapacity – mainly in steel
manufacturing and heavy equipment -. As China’s domestic market slows down, opening new trade
markets could go a long way towards keeping the national economy buoyant.
o One strong incentive is that Trans-Eurasian trade infrastructure could bolster poorer countries to the
south of China, as well as boost global trade. Domestic regions are also expected to benefit, especially the
less-developed border regions in the west of the country, such as Xinjiang.
o The economic benefits, both domestically and abroad, are many, but perhaps the most obvious is that
trading with new markets could go a long way towards keeping China’s national economy buoyant.
o Among domestic markets set to gain from future trade are Chinese companies – such as those in transport
and telecoms – which now look poised to grow into global brands.

• Geopolitical: they rely heavily in maritime lines. China is very insecure because if the US made an aggressive policy
of securisation. Though the land routes, China keeps the US away from its matters.
o The superpower status the US has achieved is to a great extent grounded on the security blanket it offered
to its allies. Geopolitically, China decided a long time ago that security was too expensive an offer to make.
Instead, this new superpower may offer connectivity à If combined with enhanced global connectivity,
China's enormous gravity could become an even more meaningful engine for the global economy.
o Beijing’s rationale is clear: these are large, resource-rich nations within its reach, with a
severe infrastructure deficit, which China has the resources and expertise to correct. By boosting
connectivity, China can spur growth in the short term, gain access to valuable natural resources in the mid-
term and create new booming markets for its goods long into the future.
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o Enhances multilateral diplomacy: relationships with the ASEAN region, Central Asia and European
countries stand to improve significantly if China directs more of its capital into developing infrastructure
overseas. Moreover, by striking up economic and cultural partnerships with other countries, China cements
its status as a dominant player in world affairs.
o From a U.S. perspective:
§ This vision contrasts with Trump’s withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement,
and open questioning of key Asian alliances, which have weakened the U.S. as a Pacific power. In
addition, his announcement of America’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord has left the
world looking to China for leadership on this and other issues.
§ However, constructing ports will not provide China with permanent bases for Chinese destroyers
or armies – the countries in question have yet to agree to host them. More important, the Chinese
navy, despite its impressive advances over the past 25 years, is not capable of extended, long-term
deployments in countries far away from the mainland.

Examples of this plan: China was the power pushing the harder in the negotiations with Iran to open its market (cease
developing nuclear weapons in exchange of lifting the sanctions), or was the one rescuing the port of Athens, and insisted
in the process of the EU rescuing Greece to avoid it to leave the Union.

Which other countries stand to gain?
• Sixty-two countries could see investments of up to US$500 billion over the next five years, with most of that
channeled to India, Russia, Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, the Philippines and Pakistan.
• Chinese companies are already behind several energy projects, including oil and gas pipelines between China and
Russia, Kazakhstan and Myanmar. Roads and infrastructure projects are also underway in Ethiopia, Kenya, Laos and
Thailand.
• Pakistan is one of the New Silk Road’s foremost supporters. As a country that stands at one end of the China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor, it is poised to benefit from $46 billion in new roads, bridges, wind farms and other
China-backed infrastructure projects.

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SESSION 9. EUROPE

THE RODRIK TRILEMMA AND THE GREEK CASE.

Rodrick argues that we cannot have “deep economic integration” (he
uses the term “hyper-globalization”), national sovereignty (nation
state), and democratic politics all at once. We can have at most two
out of three.

All three objectives are desirable in their own right, Rodrik explains.
The problem is that only two of the three can co-exist at any given
time; the trifecta is impossible to achieve in practice. In short, Rodrik
points to three ideal-type responses to the structural trilemma: the
“golden straitjacket” (when autonomous nation-states agree to
cooperate in the name of deep economic integration, regardless of what democratic publics might desire); “global
federalism” (the privileging of deep economic integration and democratic politics over the nation-state); and the “Bretton
Woods compromise” (whereby democratic nation-states accept an international economic order characterized by only
limited economic integration).

One option is to go for global federalism, where we align the scope of (democratic) politics with the scope of global markets.
Realistically, though, this is something that cannot be done at a global scale. It is pretty difficult to achieve even among a
relatively like-minded and similar countries, as the experience of the EU demonstrates.

Another option is to maintain the nation state, but to make it responsive only to the needs of the international economy.
This would be a state that would pursue global economic integration at the expense of other domestic objectives. The
nineteenth century gold standard provides a historical example of this kind of a state. The collapse of the Argentine
convertibility experiment of the 1990s provides a contemporary illustration of its inherent incompatibility with democracy.

Finally, we can downgrade our ambitions with respect to how much international economic integration we can (or should)
achieve. So, we go for a limited version of globalization, which is what the post-war Bretton Woods regime was about (with
its capital controls and limited trade liberalization). It has unfortunately become a victim of its own success. We have
forgotten the compromise embedded in that system, and which was the source of its success.

Rodrik’s trilemma applied to the Greek case

The Greek crisis can be seen as a perfect illustration of a trilemma articulated by Dani Rodrik. Rodrik argues that it is
impossible to sustain at the same time (financial and trade) globalization, sovereignty and democracy. He states that
globalization has eroded national governments’ ability to manoeuvre independently and protect social groups most affected
by the downsides of globalization.

What follows from this trilemma, is that we must choose between national self-determination, national democratic politics
and globalization. For him it is clear that globalization is what we can have less of. However, despite the deceptive simplicity
of isolationist discourses this option is not immediately available for Greece or the EU, at least not in the short term, as the
costs of exit from the euro are prohibitively high both for Greece and the Eurozone.

Tsipras made a promise to the people: after many problems in the Greek economy, all cuts to the welfare state will be over
if you vote for me. Therefore, he had a promise to deliver (otherwise economy breaks). After a victory by the left-wing Syriza
party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International
Monetary Fund and the European Union. Syriza’s electoral success is a manifestation of popular antipathy towards the

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golden straitjacket brand of globalization. For Syriza and their fellow travelers, the short-term pain of austerity cannot be
countenanced because it is fundamentally at odds with the popular will.

Clearly, then, Syriza’s favored alternative to the hated golden straitjacket most resembles Rodrik’s description of Bretton
Woods: a bargain that allows nation-states such as Greece to take “time out” from deep integration to cater to exigencies
on the domestic front, but still preserves some basic level of state-to-state economic cooperation.

However, Tsipras’ demands for national autonomy will run up against the structural constraints of the trilemma. At some
point, exceptions for Greece become incompatible with the deep economic integration so cherished across Europe. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions.
After having been elected, the EU established the obligation to keep making cuts, in order to honor the functioning of the
Eurozone (limit in the fiscal deficit).

Tsipras chose to break the promise made to the Greek people. According to the frame of the Rodrik Trilemma, democracy
lost against state sovereignty and economic integration. The alternatives were to leave the Eurozone (economic integration
would have lost) or to make European institutions directly elected by citizens (state sovereignty would have lost).

Economic
integration (HQ EU -
Brussels)

Sovereignty Democracy (Greek

(Tsipras, Syriza) people)

Summarizing, the Trilemma in the case of Greece is the following:
Ø As long as Greece is part of the EU, it has some degree of national sovereignty, but it doesn't really have democracy.
In the context of the crisis, being part of the EU means the electorate and politicians do not have a choice regarding
how payment and recovery may be achieved.
Ø Greek citizens cannot directly elect EU bureaucrats - there are no EU wide elections for a federal government.
Moreover, Greece has to abide by outside guidance to reform the economy and the state (there is no choice but to
accept an unalterable package of measures imposed from the outside).
Ø If Greece exits the EU, it is opting for more democracy (within Greece) and national sovereignty. But, the price it
has to pay is less economic integration.

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SESSION 10. RUSSIA

At the nuclear security summit at the Hague, Obama warned that “Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its
immediate neighbors — not out of strength but out of weakness." On the other hand, At the Senate Armed Services
Committee Hearing James R. Clapper, Director of the USA National Intelligence, said that “Russia has demonstrated its
military capabilities to project itself as a global power, command respect from the West, maintain domestic support for the
regime, and advance Russian interests globally”.

Exam question: IS RUSSIA A REGIONAL OR A GLOBAL POWER? (find arguments for both sides, be able to give an opinion
and defend both positions).

Introduction:

First of all, it is essential to take into account some data in order to base our analysis. Russia is the largest country in the
world by surface area, but it is the ninth most populous (over 144 million people) The European western part of the country
is much more populated and urbanized than the eastern. However, in any case it is characterized by a high-developed area.

Historical context: The Russian Revolution led to the formation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the world's first
constitutionally socialist state. The Soviet Union played a decisive role in the Allied victory in World War II and emerged as
a recognized superpower and rival to the United States during the Cold War. In 1991, with the fall of the USSR, fifteen
republics became independent and it turned about the Russian Federation.

a) Russia as a Regional player:

• One of the main arguments to understand Russia as a regional power is the set of mind of the population. In this
sense, it is true that during the Soviet Union period, the aim of their leaders was to expand their socialism system
all over the world. However, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, there has been a change in their point of view.
There is no goal of expands itself but to restructure and develop its own country from within. It is true that from
the outside, it may seem that Russia is infiltrating in the national sovereignty of its neighbours, and so it is. However,
we must understand that intervention in Ukraine was, from their point of view, a protection to their own system
after the losses that they have suffered in the last thirty years.

• Another argument to understand Russia as a regional power is
their lack of economic power in the international field. As we can
see in this data of the World Bank, the GDP of the Russian
federation is lower than many other countries (smaller than Italy
and almost the same as Spain). It is worst when we take in
relation with its size and that during the second half of the XX
century; it has been one of the powers that led the bilateralism
worldwide. Related with its evolution in the next years it is not
easy to determine because there are different points of view,
even between the Russian bank (who estimates a growth of 1,5%-2%) and the Russian Senate who approximates a
7%-8%.

• It is true that Russia has interfered in some international aspects such as Ukraine and Syria. However the lack of
power or even influence in Latin American or in Africa shows the lack of power in the international field. The small
relation with Argentina or the old relation with Cuba in the 60's is not relevant in the global sphere. It is directly
related with the lack of soft power at the negotiations. Moreover, Latin America has one of the higher rates of

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growth in the world, and the XXI century will be the expansionism of the African economy. The lack of influence in
these areas shows the lack of global power.

• In relation to the last point, Russia lacks soft power. For example, nowadays it's in a major diplomatic row with the
UK, which blames Moscow for the poisoning of a former spy, his daughter, and a British policeman in the English
countryside. The UK's top defense official said Thursday that Russia was "ripping up the international rulebook."

• In a subjective interpretation it is also important to underline the lack of social influence in the rest of the global
population. An example of that is that between the 20 best universities of EEUU (according to US news) have more
of 10% of international students. Their elections are followed worldwide and they are the cradles of the occidental
culture. This situation is also shown in films, singers or even trends. It is the opposite situation of the Russian
Federation. Another great example is that between the eight bigger companies of media, four are North American,
one Mexican, one Brazilian, one British and the last one Chinese.

• Another economic aspect is the value of the ruble:
o 1 RUB =0,0162527EUR /// 1 RUB =0,0176922USD /// 1 RUB =1,13422INR (Indian ruble)
Once we compare the Russian ruble with the principal coins in the world, we see that the value of this ruble is very
weak. In fact it is in similar levels to the Indian coin.

• Another argument of their regionalist system is the weakness of their international market. First of all we have to
focus on the exports: Petroleum and its by-products, cereals and wood. However, Russia requires the international
market to achieve machinery and equipment, consumer goods, medicines, meat, sugar and many other basic
products. From this data we obtain that it is a country with a lack of diversification, that they exports are weak and
vulnerable. The price of the products that Russia sells has been decreasing and its fluctuation is very unstable. Even
the exports decreased 18% in 2015, there is still surplus (superavit) because the imports are also reduced. However,
the trend is of lower international market value. Therefore, we can say that Russia has not only a small economy
compared to other big powers, but on top of that it is non-diversified, and hence, susceptible to crisis. It produces
little of value beyond hydrocarbons. Its economy is mainly based on extracting raw materials and shipping them
abroad--typical for a third world country, not a world leader (exports are a great part of GDP WITH companies such
as Gazprom2 or Rosfnet). John McCain likes to joke that Russia is a "gas station masquerading as a country." They
could cut off their energy production and it would hurt countries outside their immediate region, but so could Saudi
Arabia and no one mistakes them for a great world power. Russia's struggles to find its footing outside of its energy
exports.

• An extreme situation is the life expectancy. It is 70.5 years, and it is the number 110 in a list of 153 countries. Libya,
El Salvador or even Bangladesh are in a better position than Russia. As you can see in this graphic and in the previous
map, Russia is one of the worst countries in this sense and it is the one of the few that has not suffered an
improvement over the last few decades. Graphic: USA China and Russia.

2
Major supplier of natural gas to Europe, and has a partial monopoly in Eastern Europe.
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This graphic shows the Gini Coefficient of some of the main countries in the world. It is from 0 to 1 and closer to
the 1, less equal a society is. Russia is less equal than USA, what implies a tiny middle class. In the case of Russia
this reflects a stagnant economy without a strong middle class that could have the enough capital to revive the
economic slowdown that the country has suffered.
Moreover, it remains burdened with Soviet era infrastructure, and its ability to meet the educational and medical
needs of its population is rapidly declining.

• Nuclear power, but not the only country: Russia could launch nuclear missiles and that would greatly affect
countries outside of their geographic region, but so could Israel and they're not considered more than a regional
power.

• Not innovators: Its economy resembles the Soviet Union's still, because it's totally dominated by big, government-
owned companies, with the concomitant lack of innovation and opportunity for upward mobility.

b) Russia as a Global player:

• Russia is the biggest country in the world. Its size is more
than 17.000.000km2 and it has eleven time zones. It is
four times bigger than the EU. Moreover, it is almost
impossible that a country that connects both with Finland
and North Korea will not be an essential actor in the
international field. Russia has focus on determine a
relation with its neighbours, and taking into account that Russia has an extensive coastline of over 37,000 km along
the Arctic and Pacific Oceans, as well as numerous seas. In, it shares maritime borders also with Japan and the
United States, specifically with the state of Alaska. + Eurasian geographic location.

• The Russian Federation is recognized in international law as a continuation of the legal personality of the former
Soviet Union. It is for this reason that Russia continues to implement the commitments of the Soviet Union, such
as the permanent seat of the Soviet Union in the United Nations Security Council, as well as membership in other
international organizations, in addition to rights and obligations Under international treaties, property and debts.
Russia's foreign policy is multifaceted. Russia maintains diplomatic relations with 178 countries and has 140
embassies. Being one of the countries that can veto the UN Security Council, it already makes it, in itself, an
essential agent in the development of international politics. In addition its role in other international organizations
such as BRICS and being member of the G8, Council of Europe, OSCE and APEC should be highlighted.

• The Russian government's published 2015 military budget is about US$90.3 billion, the third largest in the world
behind the US and China. According to Global Peace Index, Russia is the sixth least peaceful out of 162 countries in
the world, principally because of its defence industry. Russia has historically ranked low on the index. Moreover, it
is essential to underline their enormous nuclear power based on more than 7000 nuclear weapons. However, even
they have a big military power, the true is that it is very far from the USA one. In fact the Russian expenditure is a
bit more of the 10% of the American one. In 2014 their military spent, of China, USA and Russia was the 15% of
their GDP. Additionally, Russia is the main weapons supplier to Iran and will build more nuclear power plants like
Busheir.

• Another key aspect to underline the relevance of Russia in the international field is their relevance and links with
extreme politics. It has been reflected with many cases such as the Syria of Bashar al Asad, the Venezuela of
Maduro, Iran, China is complicated because even there is many interest with fuel, the fact of helping Russia with
the Crimean problem will suppose a problem with their own territories such as Tibet, Xinxiang o Taiwan. So we can
say Russia has a lot of influence in the international arena:

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o Example: United States European Command (EUCOM) said that deterring Russia was its top priority in
Europe. To restrain Russia, the American military suggests refocusing the US' military priorities in its NATO
activities from operations in other world regions back to Europe. In addition, they have planned to
strengthen the NATO Eastern European wing, bilateral cooperation with these countries and the US, and
facilitating NATO's adoption of eastern European countries that are not yet included in the Alliance. NATO
and EUCOM are planning a new military operation near the Russian border, could possibly develop into an
armed conflict with Russia.
o Example 2: Syrian President Bashar Assad owes his survival to $4-5 billion of Russian military aid as well as
Iranian help. Russia played a key role in ensuring a lenient nuclear deal for Iran.

• In recent years, Russia has frequently been described in the media as an energy superpower. The country has the
world's largest natural gas reserves, the 8th largest oil reserves, and the second largest coal reserves. Russia is
the world's leading natural gas exporter and second largest natural gas producer, while also the largest oil exporter
and the largest oil producer. Russia is the 3rd largest electricity producer in the world and the 5th largest renewable
energy producer, the latter because of the well-developed hydroelectricity production in the country. However,
Russia is very dependent to the prices of these products that have been reduced overt the last few years.
o Many former Soviet nations in eastern Europe rely heavily on Russian oil and gas to fuel their economies,
with Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Lithuania among them. Most are trying to diversify their
energy sources to reduce their dependence on the Russian state.
o Roughly a third of the European Union's natural gas still comes from Russia, which has made it difficult for
the union to impose sanctions on the country.
o In Iraq, Russian state oil company Rosneft has signed contracts to gain control of the main oil pipeline in
the Kurdistan region, boosting Russia's influence there.
o It has also teamed up with Saudi Arabia -- another country with an oil-dependent economy -- and agreed
to extend oil production cuts to buoy global prices.

• In relation to what we have previously said, it is true that their sphere of influence is reduced to their neighboring
countries. However, we can also perform a broader interpretation by understanding this power as a global player.
Russia has focused on the Caucasus and Middle East. So, it is also important to highlight Russia’s imperial mindset,
through examples like the annexation of Crimea in 2014, war with Georgia on 2008, war to crush the Chechen
independence, key actor in Syrian Civil war, alliance with Turkey and Iran.

• The imperial mindset has grown again. Putin is one of the most powerful men in the world, in accordance to
Forbes. His power does not only stems from leading one of the biggest superpowers in the world but also because
of his high rate of approval and endorsement by the civil population. In no other democracy is the president so
strongly supported. (87% of approval when the maximum of Obama was the 40%) From my point of view he is a
hyper paternalist leader. He can be defined as the leader of an authoritarian state, where the executive power (the
president) dominates over the legislative and judicial sectors and is responsible for foreign and security policy,

• Russian achievements in the field of space technology and space exploration are traced back to Konstantin
Tsiolkovsky, the father of theoretical astronautics. In 1957 the first Earth-orbiting artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, was
launched; in 1961 the first human trip into space was successfully made. Many other Soviet and Russian space
exploration records ensued, including the first spacewalk performed and Luna 9.

• Russia was the first country to develop civilian nuclear power and to construct the world's first nuclear power
plant. (Atomic Power Station 1 Obninsk in 1954) Currently the country is the 4th largest nuclear energy producer.
The sector is rapidly developing, with an aim of increasing the total share of nuclear energy from current 16.9% to
23% by 2020.

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• Ability to spread fake news: the art of “fake news” was pioneered by the Russians in the 1990s and 2000s, and they
used it to try to help Trump win the 2016 presidential election. For example, recently Germany accused Russia of
propagating fake news to stir far-right sentiments in the country.

• Regarding intelligence, Russia’s secret services are one of the few things that did not undergo serious degradation
after the Soviet Union, though it did undergo a major restructuring. For example, in 2017, officials in Montenegro
alleged that Russian security services were involved in a plot to overthrow the government, after Montenegro was
formally invited to join NATO. Russia denied the allegations.

• Cyber-meddling: Accusations that Russia meddled in the 2016 US election à US intelligence agencies accuse Russia
of hacking into and releasing the emails Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman and other servers belonging to the
Democratic Party. This was in an attempt, they say, to influence the outcome of the vote.

So, in brief:
Global Regional

• Size + borders • Language

• Security Council of UN • Mindset
• Big military • GDP lower than Italy (nominal)
• 7.000 nuclear weapons • No/low soft power
• Influence in politics • No strong currency (rubble depreciated)
• Exports energy and resources • Military expense 1/10 of the US
• Diplomatic weight • The exports are very vulnerable in:
• First in space o Price
• Intelligence o Diversification
• Cyber-meddling • Life expectancy
• Ability to spread fake news • Tiny middle class (can’t attend people)
• Not innovators
• Not only power nuclear power

Possible conclusion/personal opinions:
• Until the recent campaign in Syria, Russia had talked of itself as a global power, but behaved like a regional
power.
• Russia is a regional power because of bad management at the very top, in short. And it will remain one until
or unless its leadership stops trying to rebuild the Soviet empire and devotes itself to making a modern
state.
• It is not that Russia has become a global power, but rather that those who used to be global powers have
declined. So, we can say that Russia has become a great power filling the void left by other former great
powers that have now shrunk in size, power and influence.
o Europe: Today with weak power projection the three main powers have less than 1,000 mainline
battle tanks and few aircraft carriers. Weak economic growth (1.5%/year), disputes among its 28
members, migration from the Middle East, serious problems with weaker members such as Greece,
promote domestic over international issues.
o US: the rise of popular neo-isolationist Presidential candidates, the slowest economic recovery since
the Great Depression, decline in its manufacturing sector, administration talk of reducing the size of
the American military to the 1940 level, and the Obama semi-withdrawal from the Middle East, the
door that had been shut to Russia has been open.
• Russia has annexed Crimea from Ukraine, meddled in a US election and helped turn the tide of the Syrian
war in Bashar al-Assad's favor.
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SESSION 11. THE MIDDLE EAST

THE SUNNI – SHIA DIVIDE

Origins and key differences

Sunnis:
• The great majority of the world's more than 1.5 billion Muslims are Sunnis - estimates suggest the figure is
somewhere between 85% and 90%. In the Middle East, Sunnis make up 90% or more of the populations of Egypt,
Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
• The name "Sunni" is derived from the phrase "Ahl al-Sunnah", or "People of the Tradition". The tradition in this
case refers to practices based on what the Prophet Muhammad said, did, agreed to or condemned.
• All Muslims are guided by the Sunnah, but Sunnis stress its primacy. Shia are also guided by the wisdom of
Muhammad's descendants through his son-in-law and cousin, Ali.
• Sunni life is guided by four schools of legal thought, each of which strives to develop practical applications of the
Sunnah










Shia
• Shia constitute about 10% of all Muslims, and globally their population is estimated at between 154 and 200 million.
• Shia Muslims are in the majority in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Azerbaijan and, according to some estimates, Yemen. There
are also large Shia communities in Afghanistan, India, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Qatar, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia
and the UAE.
• In early Islamic history, the Shia were a movement - literally "Shiat Ali" or the "Party of Ali". They claimed that Ali
was the rightful successor to the Prophet Muhammad as leader (imam) of the Muslim community following his
death in 632.
• There are three main branches of Shia Islam today - the Zaidis, Ismailis and Ithna Asharis (Twelvers or Imamis). The
Ithna Asharis are the largest group and believe that Muhammad's religious leadership, spiritual authority and divine
guidance were passed on to 12 of his descendants, beginning with Ali, Hassan and Hussei













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DIFFERENCES

• Leadership: The division between Shia and Sunni dates back to the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632. This
event raised the question of who was to take over the leadership of the Muslim nation.
o Sunni Muslims agree with many of the Prophet's companions at the time of his death: that the new leader
should be elected from among those capable of the job. For example, following Prophet Muhammad's
death, his close friend and adviser, Abu Bakr, became the first Caliph (successor or deputy of the Prophet)
of the Islamic nation.
o Shia Muslims believe that following the Prophet Muhammad's death, leadership should have passed
directly to his cousin and son-in-law, Ali bin Abu Talib. Throughout history, Shia Muslims have not
recognized the authority of elected Muslim leaders, choosing instead to follow a line of Imams which they
believe have been appointed by the Prophet Muhammad or God Himself.
• Place of residence
o Sunni Muslims make up an 85 percent majority of Muslims all over the world. Countries like Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia are predominantly Sunni.
o Significant populations of Shia Muslims can be found in Iran and Iraq. Large Shiite minority communities
are also in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, and Lebanon.
• Religious leadership
o Sunni Muslims counter that there is no basis in Islam for a hereditary privileged class of spiritual leaders,
and certainly no basis for the veneration or intercession of saints. They contend that leadership of the
community is not a birthright, but rather a trust that is earned and may be given or taken away by the
people.
o Shia Muslims believe that the Imam is sinless by nature and that his authority is infallible because it comes
directly from God. Therefore, Shia Muslims often venerate the Imams as saints. They perform pilgrimages
to their tombs and shrines in the hopes of divine intercession. This well-defined clerical hierarchy can play
a role in governmental matters as well. Iran is a good example in which the Imam, and not the state, is the
ultimate authority.
• Religious texts and practices:
o Shia Muslims tend to feel animosity towards some of the companions of the Prophet Muhammad. This is
based on their positions and actions during the early years of discord about leadership in the community.
Many of these companions (Abu Bakr, Umar ibn Al Khattab, Aisha, etc.) have narrated traditions about the
Prophet's life and spiritual practice. Shia Muslims reject these traditions and do not base any of their
religious practices on the testimony of these individuals. This naturally gives rise to some differences in
religious practice between the two groups. These differences touch all detailed aspects of religious life:
prayer, fasting, pilgrimage, and more.

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Current champions and allies

There are 1.6 billion muslims in the world, out of which 85% are Sunnis and 15% are Shia. They are spread all over the globe
– from Morocco to Indonesia - and make up the dominant religion in North Africa and the Middle East.
Only lran, Iraq, Azerbaijan and Bahrain have a Shia majority, although there are also significant Shia populations in Yemen,
Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria and Qatar.
Despite being members of the religious minority, the Saudi-backed Kingdom of Bahrain has long been ruled by the Sunni
House of Khalifa. Equally Iraq was ruled by the Sunni Saddam Hussein for more than 20 years, during which time he brutally
oppressed Shia Muslims
The current conflict in Iraq is fuelled by sectarian rivalries too, which embattled President Bashar al-Assad and his family
members of the Shia Alawite-sect, while many of the insurgent groups in his country – including the Islamic State terror
group – are Sunni adherents. The United States usually allies itself with Sunni-led countries. That's because 40 percent of
its imported oil passes through the Strait. However, it allied with the Shiites in the Iraq War to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

The two major powers in the Middle East are Saudi Arabia, an Arab population ruled by a Sunni majority, and Iran, a Persian
population ruled by a Shia majority. The Sunni-Shiite split is represented as a religious one. It's also an economic battle
between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has a sizable Shia minority of roughly 10 percent, and millions of adherents of a puritanical brand of Sunni
Islam known as Wahhabism (an offshoot of the Sunni Hanbali school) that is antagonistic to Shia Islam. The transformation
of Iran into an overtly Shia power after the Islamic revolution induced Saudi Arabia to accelerate the propagation of
Wahhabism, as both countries revived a centuries-old sectarian rivalry over the true interpretation of Islam. Many of the
groups responsible for sectarian violence that has occurred in the region and across the Muslim world since 1979 can be
traced to Saudi and Iranian sources.

A) SUNNI
- Saudia Arabia - Led by the royal family of Sunni fundamentalists.
- Syria - Ruled by 13 percent Shia minority. Allied with Shia-ruled Iran and Iraq. Passes arms from Iran to
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Persecutes Sunni minority, some of whom are with the Islamic State group. United
States and neighboring Sunni countries back the Sunni, non-Islamic State group rebels.
- Egypt - Ruled by 90 percent Sunni majority. It persecutes Christians and Shias.
- Jordan - Kingdom ruled by 92 percent Sunni majority.
- Turkey - Sunni majority rules benignly over Shiite minority (15 percent). But Shiites are concerned that
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is becoming more fundamentalist like Saudi Arabia.
- Afghanistan, Libya, Kuwait, Pakistan, Qatar, Yemen - Sunni majority rules Shia minority.
- The Islamic State group - Sunnis that have claimed territory in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.

B) SHIA
- Iran - Led by Shia fundamentalists, with only 9 percent Sunni.
- Iraq - Ruled by 63 percent Shia majority after United States toppled Sunni leader Saddam Hussein. This shifted
the balance of power in the Middle East. The Shia reaffirmed their alliance with Iran and Syria. Although the
United States wiped out al-Qaida leaders, the Sunni insurgents became the Islamic State group
- Lebanon - Ruled jointly by Christians (39 percent), Sunni (22 percent), and Shia (36 percent).
- Bahrain - Sunni minority (30 percent), backed by Saudi Arabia and United States, rules Shia majority.

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Two proxy wars: Syria and Yemen (who supports who and why)

- Yemen: In March 2015, the president of Yemen, Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was forced to flee the country by Houthi
rebels. The Zaidi Shia Houthis were supported by elements of Yemen’s military loyal to the country's former president,
Ali Abdullah Saleh. In response, Saudi Arabia formed a coalition of a dozen countries to restore Yemen's internationally
recognized government to power.
The current civil war in Yemen has become a sectarian proxy war, with Iran backing the Shia Houthi rebels who
overthrew the country’s Sunni-dominated government, while a Saudi-led coalition has since intervened to reinstall the
Sunni leadership. This coalition includes Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan and
Senegal. Several of these countries have sent troops to fight on the ground in Yemen, while others have only carried
out air attacks.
- Syria: The Sunni Arabs in Syria are the biggest supporters of the rebel forces, and in recent years have developed
increasingly hostile feelings towards the Shia Muslim Assad government. They have always been the majority in a
country that is lead by the minority. Shia Islam is the second big sect of after Sunni Islam, to which about 12% of
Syrians adhere to. The majority of these followers are Alawites, as is President Assad. Although the Alawites are a
minority in the country, they have held control over almost all aspects of the government since 1971 when the father
of Bashar al-Assad took power. The Shiites around the world are mainly supported and funded by Iran, as a
counterweight to Saudi Arabia. The Shiites are seen as heretics by many Sunni Islamists, and as such almost all Shias in
Syria support the Assad regime, as they (somewhat justifiably) fear a massacre or even a genocide in revenge should
the Sunni groups come to power.

Sunni (S. Arabia) Shia (Iran)
Syria Rebels Assad’s government
Yemen Hadi’s government Houties & Saleh’s supporters

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SESSION 12: LATAM & AFRICA

Exam question: 10 plausible factors that help us explain why Africa is behind (economic, political, geographical factors)

1. Africa has many landlocked countries (geographically unlucky), which prevents exports and access to goods. most
landlocked countries in Africa are surrounded by unstable and conflict-filled countries. This gives them little sea
power and very little trade opportunities which eventually stumps their economy. Uganda, a landlocked country
bordered by South Sudan and Democratic Republic of Congo stands as a good example.
2. There are many linguistic barriers (many languages) which make communication very complicated.
3. Disease spread by animals such as malaria kill a lot of people. Africa is the most affected continent because the
most predominant species that leads to death in many of the cases of Malaria is able to survive in the very tropical
climate of Africa. This has a major impact on health in general and decreases life expectancy, while in other places
such as Central America many countries have been able to eradicate this disease.
4. Their geography does not help, it is difficult to build in the geography of Africa because of the climatic complications
and it being the most tropical of all continents.
5. Slavery was also a major issue; Arabs took 18m slaves into trade. This has meant that the continent has always had
to struggle with major social issues that create unrest. While other continents were able to pursue other objectives,
people in Africa were still fighting for basic rights, meaning that they fell behind.
6. Women cannot access jobs, in many countries women are still not equal before the law, and even in countries
where they are the male head of the household is still the one to decide over the women in the family. If women
are only working “traditional jobs” then they are missing out on the opportunity to earn money and to make their
society more productive and efficient. This not only does not allow for economic development but in comparison
to other western countries, this leaves Africa very far behind in terms of Human Rights and social policy.
7. The lack of investment in science and technology, the constant pursuit for military and economic supremacy can
only be achieved through scientific and technological innovation.
8. Underage marriage is one of the most important social issues that African people have to deal with. As mentioned
before, the lack of equal rights for women in the continent leaves Africa far behind, half of the population is left
without little to no protection whatsoever which does not allow for a society to develop properly. Furthermore,
many of these young women end up having plenty of children, many for whom which they cannot properly care
for. This continues a vicious cycle where young women lack education and do not have equal opportunities in
comparison to their male counterparts who have to work harder in order to earn enough to sustain large families.
9. The political instability in Africa overall makes it harder for people to prosper. Corruption, coups and the lack of
democracy have lead to great instability in the country where very few countries have been able to maintain some
kind of peace. Even countries like South Africa or Nairobi who have established themselves as democracies have
not seen a shift in the political parties that control the countries, which could lead to massive corruption. President
Johnson-Sirleaf claims that "Africa is not poor, it is poorly managed."
10. The lack of innovation makes daily life very complicated. People in Africa live without basic commodities that
westerns do not have to live without, such as: running water, electricity, appliances, railways, etc. These
commodities make our lives more efficient, while people in Africa have to work harder to achieve basic objectives.
11. Lack of a division of powers, with no strong judicial system. In many well-known African conflicts international
organizations have had to intervene in order to provide justice due to the lack of resources the countries have. Take
for example the Rwandan Genocide, many of the Gacaca Courts3 that were established left mixed legacy, where
people were intimidated, corruption took over and many of the decisions made were flawed.
12. Civil wars and terrorism, through groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria or ISIL. These terrorist acts have not only
resulted in deaths and injuries but have also affected the socio-economic divisions in the country. Apart from
business disruption, the revolts and attacks have caused sporadic migration, abandonment of professions and jobs,
discouraged foreign investment, food scarcity and dehumanized people.

3
The Gacaca courts are a method of transitional justice and are designed to promote communal healing and rebuilding in the wake of the
Rwandan Genocide.
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13. Lack of education and knowledge gap: Even up to today, some African households cannot afford basic
education for their children. Although some governments in the region have taken up the matter of basic education
provision as a government project, many areas lack schools and even where schools are, they are sparsely located
posing a challenge to the young children who would rather help at home than make the long walk to school.
Inadequate skills and knowledge cripples the economy as there is no skilled labor to drive the nation.

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