Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019

September 23rd 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 30.8 38.5 12.3 15.1 - 3.3
Quebec 19.5 34.8 9.8 9.8 22.7 2.5
Ontario 34.9 37.4 13.4 8.9 - 3.4
Prairies 50.7 23.9 12.9 7.1 - 4.2
Alberta 61.4 17.6 10.5 5.7 - 4.2
BC 33.0 28.4 17.2 16.8 - 3.6
Canada* 35.0 32.8 12.8 10.2 4.9 3.2

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 23 2 0 0
Quebec 13 42 2 0 20 1
Ontario 49 60 12 0 0
Prairies 21 6 1 0 0
Alberta 33 0 1 0 0
BC 22 9 5 5 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 145 143 23 5 20 1 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.

Avalon 28% 43% 11% 15% 3%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 23% 62% 2% 13% 3%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 31% 56% 1% 13% 3%
NFL

Labrador 26% 52% 9% 12% 3%

Long Range Mountains 25% 55% 6% 14% 3%
St. John's East 20% 28% 39% 13% 3%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 18% 39% 31% 13% 3%
Cardigan 29% 46% 6% 18% 3%
Charlottetown 28% 37% 18% 18% 3%
PEI
PEI Egmont 41% 30% 14% 15% 4%
Malpeque 30% 43% 6% 21% 3%
Cape Breton--Canso 28% 53% 3% 16% 3%
Central Nova 39% 40% 5% 16% 4%
Cumberland--Colchester 39% 45% 1% 16% 4%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 27% 39% 19% 15% 3%
Halifax 22% 33% 30% 15% 3%
NS

Halifax West 28% 49% 7% 16% 3%

Kings--Hants 31% 52% 1% 15% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 28% 29% 29% 15% 4%
South Shore--St. Margarets 35% 38% 12% 15% 4%
Sydney--Victoria 25% 52% 8% 15% 3%
West Nova 38% 44% 2% 16% 4%
Acadie--Bathurst 21% 32% 33% 14% 3%
Beauséjour 24% 50% 10% 16% 3%
Fredericton 41% 30% 5% 25% 4%
Fundy Royal 50% 22% 13% 16% 5%
Madawaska--Restigouche 29% 37% 20% 14% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 46% 28% 10% 15% 4%

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 34% 39% 11% 17% 4%
New Brunswick Southwest 51% 25% 8% 17% 5%
Saint John--Rothesay 43% 30% 12% 15% 4%
Tobique--Mactaquac 49% 27% 6% 17% 4%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 13% 33% 19% 10% 22% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 11% 30% 24% 10% 24% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 11% 46% 15% 10% 17% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 15% 46% 5% 10% 22% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 15% 43% 8% 10% 22% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 11% 43% 8% 9% 27% 2%
Beauce 30% 20% 0% 9% 11% 30%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
35% 26% 6% 9% 22% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 33% 25% 8% 10% 19% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 14% 23% 6% 10% 44% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 51% 20% 0% 11% 15% 4%
 Beloeil--Chambly 12% 27% 13% 9% 35% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 14% 20% 25% 9% 31% 2%
Bourassa 13% 54% 0% 10% 21% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 15% 43% 8% 10% 22% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 16% 49% 9% 9% 15% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 45% 23% 3% 10% 16% 4%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 14% 38% 7% 9% 28% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 44% 30% 2% 10% 12% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 16% 36% 11% 9% 26% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 14% 52% 8% 9% 15% 2%
Drummond 21% 26% 13% 10% 28% 3%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 9% 37% 19% 8% 24% 2%
Gatineau 12% 54% 10% 9% 13% 2%
Hochelaga 11% 30% 15% 11% 32% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 15% 56% 1% 9% 16% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 11% 52% 15% 10% 10% 2%
Joliette 14% 29% 7% 10% 38% 2%
Jonquière 28% 25% 11% 10% 24% 3%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 11% 28% 12% 10% 37% 2%
La Prairie 15% 36% 7% 10% 30% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 31% 24% 11% 9% 21% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 19% 61% 0% 10% 8% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 10% 41% 15% 10% 21% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 14% 32% 7% 10% 34% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 8% 24% 22% 11% 32% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 22% 49% 1% 10% 17% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 51% 21% 0% 9% 15% 4%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 13% 35% 8% 11% 31% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 12% 30% 14% 10% 32% 2%

Louis-Hébert 30% 35% 3% 10% 18% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 52% 21% 0% 9% 14% 4%
Manicouagan 14% 30% 0% 10% 44% 3%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 16% 42% 5% 10% 26% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 38% 28% 5% 10% 16% 3%
Mirabel 14% 26% 11% 10% 36% 2%
Montarville 14% 32% 9% 10% 32% 3%
Montcalm 14% 28% 5% 10% 42% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
31% 27% 11% 9% 19% 3%
Mount Royal 36% 46% 0% 8% 7% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 17% 55% 8% 10% 8% 2%
Outremont 13% 33% 26% 11% 14% 2%
Papineau 8% 53% 11% 11% 16% 2%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 13% 27% 9% 16% 33% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 22% 56% 3% 9% 9% 2%
Pontiac 17% 55% 6% 10% 11% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 46% 21% 5% 10% 15% 4%
Québec 25% 29% 10% 11% 23% 3%
Repentigny 15% 28% 4% 10% 40% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 34% 24% 8% 9% 22% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
11% 27% 29% 9% 23% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 14% 33% 11% 10% 30% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 12% 27% 11% 11% 37% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 8% 21% 33% 11% 25% 3%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 20% 27% 12% 10% 29% 3%
Saint-Jean 14% 32% 13% 10% 29% 2%
Saint-Laurent 21% 58% 0% 9% 10% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 14% 64% 0% 9% 11% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 19% 41% 5% 9% 24% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 13% 29% 13% 9% 33% 2%
Shefford 16% 38% 7% 10% 27% 2%
Sherbrooke 13% 30% 20% 10% 26% 2%
Terrebonne 15% 28% 7% 10% 38% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 16% 33% 6% 10% 32% 3%
Trois-Rivières 22% 30% 14% 9% 22% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 17% 46% 7% 10% 19% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 14% 48% 10% 12% 13% 2%
Vimy 17% 47% 2% 10% 21% 2%
Ajax 35% 49% 5% 8% 3%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 25% 27% 37% 7% 4%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 45% 41% 3% 8% 3%
Barrie--Innisfil 47% 29% 9% 11% 3%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 43% 33% 8% 12% 4%
Bay of Quinte 35% 44% 9% 9% 3%
Beaches--East York 17% 43% 27% 10% 3%
Brampton Centre 34% 43% 13% 7% 3%
Brampton East 24% 46% 20% 6% 3%
Brampton North 33% 43% 14% 7% 3%
Brampton South 35% 46% 8% 7% 3%
Brampton West 30% 50% 10% 7% 3%
Brantford--Brant 42% 24% 22% 8% 4%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 45% 32% 9% 11% 4%
Burlington 42% 39% 6% 9% 3%
Cambridge 39% 37% 11% 10% 3%
Carleton 47% 35% 3% 11% 3%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 40% 34% 17% 7% 4%
Davenport 11% 38% 38% 10% 3%
Don Valley East 29% 51% 7% 9% 3%
Don Valley North 38% 45% 5% 9% 3%
Don Valley West 38% 47% 3% 9% 4%
Dufferin--Caledon 44% 32% 5% 15% 3%
Durham 46% 28% 13% 9% 3%
Eglinton--Lawrence 42% 43% 3% 8% 4%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 51% 26% 13% 7% 4%
Essex 37% 15% 38% 6% 4%
Etobicoke Centre 37% 47% 5% 8% 3%
Etobicoke North 23% 57% 9% 8% 3%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 32% 48% 8% 9% 3%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 44% 32% 11% 9% 3%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 37% 46% 5% 9% 4%
Guelph 27% 42% 9% 18% 4%
Haldimand--Norfolk 46% 32% 11% 7% 4%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 45% 24% 17% 11% 4%
 Hamilton Centre 17% 29% 39% 11% 4%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 26% 33% 29% 8% 3%
Hamilton Mountain 27% 27% 32% 9% 5%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 32% 41% 13% 10% 3%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 42% 35% 10% 10% 3%
Humber River--Black Creek 20% 61% 8% 8% 3%
Huron--Bruce 46% 31% 10% 9% 3%
Kanata--Carleton 39% 43% 4% 10% 3%
Kenora 30% 29% 31% 7% 3%
Kingston and the Islands 23% 48% 14% 11% 3%
King--Vaughan 44% 41% 4% 7% 3%
Kitchener Centre 30% 42% 14% 10% 4%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 36% 35% 13% 11% 5%
Kitchener--Conestoga 43% 35% 7% 10% 5%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 48% 25% 15% 7% 4%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 48% 26% 11% 10% 4%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau48%
Lakes 33% 6% 11% 3%
London North Centre 32% 46% 12% 7% 3%
London West 36% 41% 12% 6% 4%
London--Fanshawe 30% 28% 31% 7% 4%
Markham--Stouffville 43% 43% 3% 8% 3%
Markham--Thornhill 33% 49% 8% 7% 3%
Markham--Unionville 50% 36% 2% 8% 3%
Milton 45% 33% 8% 9% 4%
Mississauga Centre 34% 49% 7% 7% 3%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 36% 49% 6% 7% 3%

Mississauga--Erin Mills 39% 44% 7% 7% 3%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 41% 42% 6% 8% 4%
Mississauga--Malton 27% 54% 10% 7% 3%
Mississauga--Streetsville 41% 42% 7% 8% 3%
Nepean 37% 45% 5% 10% 3%
Newmarket--Aurora 43% 39% 6% 9% 3%
Niagara Centre 31% 29% 28% 8% 3%
Niagara Falls 40% 29% 19% 9% 4%
Niagara West 51% 27% 9% 9% 5%
Nickel Belt 18% 36% 35% 7% 3%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 31% 45% 13% 8% 3%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 40% 35% 12% 10% 3%
Oakville 42% 42% 3% 9% 3%
Oakville North--Burlington 43% 40% 5% 9% 4%
Orléans 31% 52% 5% 9% 3%
Oshawa 39% 20% 29% 9% 4%
Ottawa Centre 15% 35% 35% 11% 4%
Ottawa South 25% 52% 9% 11% 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean 31% 49% 7% 11% 3%
Ottawa--Vanier 20% 50% 16% 11% 4%
Oxford 48% 27% 14% 7% 4%
Parkdale--High Park 13% 36% 37% 10% 4%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 42% 33% 7% 13% 4%
Perth--Wellington 45% 30% 12% 10% 3%
Peterborough--Kawartha 35% 36% 16% 9% 3%
Pickering--Uxbridge 38% 44% 6% 9% 3%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 52% 28% 7% 10% 4%
Richmond Hill 43% 40% 5% 8% 3%
Sarnia--Lambton 40% 22% 28% 6% 4%
Sault Ste. Marie 33% 38% 19% 7% 3%
Scarborough Centre 33% 44% 8% 9% 6%
Scarborough North 28% 42% 19% 8% 3%
Scarborough Southwest 22% 46% 20% 9% 3%
Scarborough--Agincourt 38% 46% 5% 8% 3%
Scarborough--Guildwood 27% 54% 8% 8% 3%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 28% 54% 7% 9% 3%
Simcoe North 45% 32% 8% 12% 3%
Simcoe--Grey 48% 31% 7% 11% 3%
Spadina--Fort York 16% 48% 24% 9% 3%
St. Catharines 38% 37% 13% 8% 3%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 49% 32% 6% 10% 4%
Sudbury 23% 41% 25% 8% 3%
 Thornhill 59% 28% 3% 6% 5%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 22% 37% 27% 10% 3%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 19% 39% 20% 19% 3%
Timmins--James Bay 22% 28% 40% 7% 3%
Toronto Centre 13% 52% 23% 10% 3%
Toronto--Danforth 11% 37% 37% 12% 3%
Toronto--St. Paul's 27% 49% 12% 10% 3%
University--Rosedale 18% 44% 25% 10% 3%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 44% 43% 2% 6% 5%
Waterloo 32% 43% 12% 10% 3%
Wellington--Halton Hills 51% 29% 6% 11% 3%
Whitby 42% 39% 7% 8% 3%
Willowdale 37% 47% 4% 9% 3%
Windsor West 22% 20% 49% 6% 4%
Windsor--Tecumseh 29% 21% 41% 6% 4%
York Centre 43% 41% 4% 9% 3%
York South--Weston 19% 40% 27% 9% 5%
York--Simcoe 51% 29% 6% 10% 3%
Brandon--Souris 61% 25% 0% 10% 4%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
48% 39% 1% 8% 4%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 22% 31% 37% 6% 4%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 63% 19% 5% 9% 4%
Elmwood--Transcona 45% 15% 28% 8% 4%
Kildonan--St. Paul 50% 33% 7% 6% 4%
Portage--Lisgar 74% 14% 0% 8% 4%
Man.

Provencher 66% 22% 0% 8% 4%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 38% 45% 5% 7% 4%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 64% 19% 4% 8% 4%
Winnipeg Centre 23% 42% 21% 9% 4%
Winnipeg North 26% 56% 8% 8% 3%
Winnipeg South 44% 45% 0% 7% 4%
Winnipeg South Centre 38% 47% 3% 8% 4%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 69% 8% 13% 5% 4%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 73% 7% 9% 7% 5%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 38% 25% 27% 5% 4%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 70% 6% 13% 6% 4%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 62% 10% 18% 6% 4%
Prince Albert 57% 12% 22% 5% 4%
Regina--Lewvan 41% 19% 29% 7% 4%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 50% 14% 24% 7% 4%

Regina--Wascana 35% 48% 7% 7% 4%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 47% 18% 24% 7% 4%
Saskatoon--University 48% 17% 25% 7% 4%
Saskatoon West 39% 16% 33% 7% 4%
Souris--Moose Mountain 75% 5% 9% 6% 4%
Yorkton--Melville 65% 9% 15% 6% 4%
Banff--Airdrie 64% 21% 6% 6% 4%
Battle River--Crowfoot 80% 5% 6% 6% 4%
Bow River 79% 9% 4% 4% 4%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 47% 38% 5% 7% 4%
Calgary Confederation 48% 35% 6% 7% 4%
Calgary Forest Lawn 51% 28% 9% 7% 6%
Calgary Heritage 65% 18% 6% 6% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 68% 15% 7% 7% 4%
Calgary Nose Hill 62% 19% 8% 7% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 62% 23% 5% 6% 4%
Calgary Shepard 67% 17% 6% 7% 4%
Calgary Signal Hill 62% 22% 4% 7% 5%
Calgary Skyview 43% 39% 7% 6% 4%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 38% 30% 23% 5% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 44% 14% 32% 5% 5%
Edmonton Manning 49% 20% 22% 5% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 44% 34% 12% 5% 5%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 53% 22% 16% 5% 4%

Edmonton Strathcona 37% 14% 39% 5% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 52% 27% 12% 4% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 66% 16% 9% 5% 4%
Foothills 76% 8% 6% 6% 4%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 61% 23% 7% 4% 5%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 73% 10% 7% 6% 5%
Lakeland 73% 9% 9% 5% 5%
Lethbridge 58% 13% 19% 5% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 70% 13% 9% 5% 4%
Peace River--Westlock 70% 8% 13% 5% 5%
Red Deer--Mountain View 75% 8% 7% 5% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 71% 10% 10% 5% 4%
St. Albert--Edmonton 58% 21% 12% 5% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 68% 13% 9% 5% 5%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 71% 11% 9% 6% 4%
Yellowhead 72% 9% 8% 5% 5%
Abbotsford 52% 26% 6% 12% 4%
Burnaby North--Seymour 33% 28% 21% 15% 4%
Burnaby South 26% 21% 32% 12% 9%
Cariboo--Prince George 41% 25% 18% 11% 4%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 43% 31% 12% 11% 4%
Chilliwack--Hope 46% 27% 10% 12% 5%
Cloverdale--Langley City 39% 37% 7% 13% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 36% 27% 18% 13% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 32% 17% 26% 22% 3%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 27% 19% 24% 27% 3%
Delta 37% 41% 6% 12% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 22% 22% 24% 30% 3%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 34% 39% 13% 12% 3%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 39% 24% 22% 11% 4%
Kelowna--Lake Country 44% 39% 7% 8% 4%
Kootenay--Columbia 41% 13% 27% 14% 4%
Langley--Aldergrove 47% 31% 4% 14% 5%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 40% 30% 13% 13% 4%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 27% 13% 19% 39% 3%
New Westminster--Burnaby 25% 23% 32% 14% 6%
North Island--Powell River 30% 20% 28% 18% 3%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 43% 23% 18% 12% 4%

BC North Vancouver 31% 48% 0% 17% 3%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 36% 26% 21% 14% 4%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 34% 24% 25% 13% 4%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
56% 18% 8% 12% 5%
Richmond Centre 48% 34% 3% 12% 4%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 23% 11% 1% 62% 3%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 32% 14% 38% 12% 4%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 34% 22% 28% 12% 4%
South Surrey--White Rock 45% 36% 2% 13% 4%
Steveston--Richmond East 43% 37% 3% 13% 4%
Surrey Centre 25% 38% 21% 13% 3%
Surrey--Newton 20% 48% 17% 11% 3%
Vancouver Centre 19% 50% 12% 15% 4%
Vancouver East 14% 25% 39% 19% 3%
Vancouver Granville 17% 27% 9% 12% 3% 32%
Vancouver Kingsway 24% 24% 35% 13% 4%
Vancouver Quadra 28% 53% 3% 13% 3%
Vancouver South 35% 43% 6% 12% 3%
Victoria 16% 22% 21% 38% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky31%
Country47% 1% 18% 3%
Yukon 28% 47% 13% 10% 3%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 22% 43% 22% 10% 3%

Nunavut 28% 41% 19% 9% 3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats