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IC Oberoi
IC Oberoi
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
27 February 2019
ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK Market Snapshot
INITIATING COVERAGE Global Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
Oberoi Realty Dow Jones 26,058 (0.1) 11.7
NASDAQ 7,549 (0.1) 13.8
AAA real estate developer
FTSE 7,151 (0.5) 6.3
SECTOR UPDATE CAC 5,239 0.1 10.7
Metals & Mining DAX 11,541 0.3 9.3
Russia 1,193 (0.7) 11.6
Steel prices recover from lows aided by firm input costs
Bovespa 97,603 0.4 11.1
COMPANY UPDATE Nikkei 21,449 (0.4) 7.7
Transport Corporation of India Hang Seng 28,772 (0.6) 11.3
Tata Motors Ltd 183 3.9 0.8 5.8 RELINFRA 133 0.8 9.7 10,635
Coal India Ltd 220 2.7 (2.0) (8.6) TATAMTRDVR 91 1.3 9.1 33,987
BALKRISIND 883 1.1 7.1 2,354
Tata Consultancy Svcs Ltd 2,039 2.7 1.2 7.7
BOSCHLTD 18,763 1.8 6.3 144
Indian Oil Corp Ltd 142 2.6 3.9 3.8
Ultratech Cement Ltd 3,789 1.9 7.6 (5.1) Short Covering
Bajaj Finserv Ltd 6,453 1.9 5.9 (0.4) Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000)
CUMMINSIND 723 2.9 (14.1) 1,434
Nifty Underperformers VGUARD 195 2.3 (11.9) 4,170
KSCL 410 4.0 (8.5) 1,859
Price % Chg % MTD % YTD
AJANTPHARM 1,002 2.9 (5.3) 1,242
Indiabulls Housing Finance L 659 (2.9) (0.8) (22.8)
Hcl Technologies Ltd 1,059 (2.2) 5.3 9.8
Housing Development Finance 1,854 (2.2) (3.6) (5.8)
Icici Bank Ltd 348 (2.1) (4.5) (3.3)
Infosys Ltd 743 (1.6) (0.9) 13.3
State Bank Of India 266 (1.4) (9.3) (10.0)
Jsw Steel Ltd 285 (1.1) 3.6 (7.3)
Bulk Deals
Date Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price
26-Feb-19 Sinclair Pressman Realty Limited Buy 57,159 325.87
26-Feb-19 Sintercom India Limited Bellwether Capital Private Limited Buy 134,000 59.34
26-Feb-19 Vinayakpol Burlington Finance Limited Sell 79,000 7.40
26-Feb-19 Gujarat Raffia Virtue Ceramics Private Limited . Buy 25,000 14.45
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 3
Feb-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
Apr-18
Aug-18
-5 11
1-Jan
8-Jan
15-Jan
22-Jan
29-Jan
5-Feb
12-Feb
19-Feb
26-Feb
27-Nov
4-Dec
11-Dec
18-Dec
25-Dec
-10 -7.5
WPI Inflation (%) 10 Yr Yield (%) 20-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb
Source: Bloomberg
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 4
Dominant Player in Mumbai, with healthy rental income and strong balance sheet:
Initiating with a BUY
Biplab Debbarma, CFA With expected revenue of INR24 bn in FY19E, Oberoi Realty Limited (ORL) is a dominant
+91 22 4031 3427
biplab.debbarma@antiquelimited.com real estate developer in Mumbai, the most lucrative real estate market in India. With a
robust execution track record ORL is one of the strongest brands in Mumbai Metropolitan
Region (MMR) and second largest developers in terms of sales value (INR mn) in last 5 years.
The existing inventory in the ongoing residential projects (excluding Three sixty West) is around
2.79 mn sqft (projects in western and central suburbs) and another 6.68 mn sqft of residential
projects in the pipeline, all in the western suburb. Sales Booking of INR19 bn in residential
expected in FY19 and expected to increase further with the launch of three pipeline projects.
Market data
Sensex : 35,974 The Developer has a diversified product portfolio comprising residential projects and
Sector : Real Estate income generating annuity assets such as Grade A offices, large format retail and luxury
Market Cap (INRbn) : 179.3
hotel. The company also has good mix of residential/ annuity assets in the pipeline.
Market Cap (USDbn) : 2.523
O/S Shares (m) : 363.6 Healthy income profile from Annuity assets, set to become healthier
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 610/351
Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 1,566
The operating assets - the offices (Commerz and Commerz II Phase I), retail (Oberoi Mall)
Bloomberg : OBER IN and the hospitality asset (The Westin) are already generating more than INR3 bn as income
Source: Bloomberg per annum. Another 238-room Ritz Carlton hotel in Worli expected to be operational by end
Valuation of 2019 and to add income of another INR750 mn once the asset stabilizes. In addition,
FY19e FY20e FY21e significant ramp-up of income-producing assets two mixed used (major portion - mall) projects
EPS (INR) 20.6 26.8 29.3
are under construction in Worli (1.70 mn sqft) and Borivali (1.73 mn sqft). The additional
P/E 30.5 23.5 21.5
P/BV 2.9 3 2.3 income-producing assets are expected to be stabilized in 4-5 yrs and add further rental
EV/EBITDA 14.4 12.2 10.6 income to the portfolio. The total income from income-producing portfolio is expected to be
EV/Sales 7.4 6.2 5.5 around INR15 bn in 4-5 yrs timeline.
Source: Bloomberg
A Balance Sheet to Fall for with Attractive Valuations
Returns (%)
1m 3m 6m 12m Although ORL is executing two mixed-use developments at Borivali and Worli, both of which
Absolute 8 15 5 (12) are high capex intensive, the Company has strong balance sheet and has one of the lowest
Relative 8 13 12 (16)
D/E ratio (~ 0.20) in the industry. Although Gross Debt would be around INR14 bn but cash
Source: Bloomberg
and liquid investment is around INR9.7 bn. The debt can easily be serviced with the healthy
Shareholding pattern
income (EBITDA INR3 bn/ yr) from the operational rental assets. Moreover, the cost of debt of
Promoters : 68% the company is quite low (< 9%).
Public : 32%
Others : 0% With NAV of INR525/ share (Thane, Sky City extension and social infrastructure not
Source: Bloomberg included) and potential volume growth due to new project acquisitions, the target price of
Price performance vs Nifty INR630/ share is a significant upside.
120 Leasing risk of Worli Mall, high level of inventory in Mulund micro-market and slow
100
sales velocity of Three-Sixty West are the envisaged downside risk.
80
60
Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19
Oberoi Realty NIFTY
Source: Bloomberg Indexed to 100
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 5
Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm) Cash flow statement (INRm)
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Net Revenue 11,137 12,654 24,436 29,656 32,743 PBT 4,991 6,373 10,715 13,904 15,214
Op. Expenses 5,439 4,995 11,831 14,422 15,943 Depreciation & amortisation 495 491 537 571 573
EBITDA 5,699 7,659 12,605 15,234 16,800 Interest expense 721 1,098 1,451 1,451 1,451
Depreciation 495 491 537 571 573 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (2,181) (6,771) (7,237) (8,874) 2,098
EBIT 5,204 7,169 12,069 14,663 16,227 Tax paid (1,825) (2,108) (3,207) (4,161) (4,553)
Other income 476 266 97 692 438 Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. (391) (212) (97) (692) (438)
Interest Exp. 721 1,098 1,451 1,451 1,451 Other operating Cash Flow (43) 14 - - -
Other Adjustment 31 36 - - - CF from operating activities 1,767 (1,115) 2,161 2,199 14,345
Reported PBT 4,991 6,373 10,715 13,904 15,214 Capital expenditure (763) (773) (995) (3,948) (5,471)
Tax 1,868 1,907 3,207 4,161 4,553 Inc/(Dec) in investments (2,932) (7,231) - - -
Reported PAT 3,122 4,466 7,508 9,743 10,661 Others (1,897) 2,122 (1,426) 54 61
Net Profit 3,122 4,466 7,508 9,743 10,661 CF from investing activities (5,591) (5,883) (2,421) (3,894) (5,410)
Adjusted PAT 3,091 4,429 7,508 9,743 10,661 Inc/(Dec) in share capital 60 17 12,000 - -
Adjusted EPS (INR) 9.1 13.0 20.6 26.8 29.3 Inc/(Dec) in debt 3,820 8,306 - - -
Dividend Paid - (817) (873) (873) (873)
Balance sheet (INRm) Others (527) (996) (1,451) (1,451) (1,451)
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e CF from financing activities 3,353 6,510 9,676 (2,324) (2,324)
Share Capital 3,395 3,396 3,636 3,636 3,636 Net cash flow (471) (488) 9,417 (4,019) 6,611
Reserves & Surplus 53,864 57,528 75,923 84,793 94,581 Opening balance 2,858 2,387 1,900 11,316 7,297
Networth 57,260 60,924 79,559 88,429 98,217 Closing balance 2,387 1,900 11,316 7,297 13,909
Debt 8,686 16,941 16,941 16,941 16,941
Net deferred Tax liabilities (1,100) (1,091) (1,091) (1,091) (1,091) Growth indicators (%)
Others 723 1,008 1,008 1,008 1,008 Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Capital Employed 65,569 77,781 96,417 1,05,287 1,15,075 Revenue(%) - 13.6 93.1 21.4 10.4
Non-Current Assets 10,885 11,227 12,055 11,535 11,012 EBITDA(%) - 34.4 64.6 20.9 10.3
Capital work in progress 1,090 1,124 755 4,653 10,073 Adj PAT(%) - 43.3 69.5 29.8 9.4
Net Fixed Assets 11,976 12,351 12,810 16,187 21,085 Adj EPS(%) - 43.3 58.3 29.8 9.4
Investments 18,302 24,242 24,242 24,242 24,242
Non Current Investments 16,077 24,107 24,107 24,107 24,107 Valuation (x)
Current Investments 2,225 135 135 135 135 Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 53,088 64,010 80,035 86,099 96,178 P/E 69.2 48.3 30.5 23.5 21.5
Inventory 37,664 42,467 46,455 54,919 57,803 P/BV 3.7 3.5 2.9 3 2.3
Debtors 1,058 1,813 2,911 3,891 4,098 EV/EBITDA 31.2 24.9 14.4 12.2 10.6
Cash & Bank balance 3,458 1,167 10,584 6,565 13,176 EV/Sales 16.0 15.1 7.4 6.2 5.5
Loans & advances and others 10,909 18,562 20,086 20,723 21,101
Current Liabilities & Prov. 17,796 22,822 20,670 21,241 26,430
Financial ratios
Liabilities 17,776 22,817 20,666 21,236 26,425
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
RoE (%) 5.4 7.5 10.7 11.6 11.4
Provisions 20 4 4 4 4
RoCE (%) 8.7 10.4 14.0 15.2 15.1
Net Current Assets 35,292 41,189 59,366 64,858 69,749
Asset/T.O (x) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Application of Funds 65,569 77,781 96,417 1,05,287 1,15,075
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Per share data EBIT/Interest (x) 7.2 6.5 8.3 10.1 11.2
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
No. of shares (m) 340 340 364 364 364
Margins (%)
Diluted no. of shares (m) 340 340 364 364 364
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e
EBITDA Margin(%) 51.2 60.5 51.6 51.4 51.3
BVPS (INR) 169 179 219 243 270
EBIT Margin(%) 46.7 56.6 49.4 49.4 49.6
CEPS (INR) 10.7 14.6 22.1 28.4 30.9
PAT Margin(%) 26.6 34.3 30.6 32.1 32.1
DPS (INR) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Source: Company Antique
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 6
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
(Apr-Jan'18)
(Apr-Jan'19)
0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: JPC, Antique
Coking coal futures remain firm Coking coal contract prices increase
315 350 250%
(USD/t)
280 300 200%
250 150%
245
200 100%
210
150 50%
175
100 0%
140 50 -50%
105 0 -100%
3QFY11
2QFY12
1QFY13
4QFY13
3QFY14
2QFY15
1QFY16
4QFY16
3QFY17
2QFY18
1QFY19
FY04
FY07
FY10
70
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Chinese iron ore prices increase North Europe domestic HRC prices decline marginally
250
USD/t) 1,400.0 USD/t
200 1,200.0
1,000.0
150
800.0
100 600.0
400.0
50
200.0
0 -
Feb-11
Dec-11
May-12
Jul-11
Oct-12
Mar-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
May-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Jan-19
Sep-15
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Aug-13
Apr-15
Aug-18
Chinese domestic HRC prices recover from lows Chinese export HRC prices rebound
1,000 (USD/tonne) 900 (USD/tonne)
900 800
700
800
600
700
500
600
400
500 300
400 200
300 100
200 0
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique
Chinese rebar inventory higher YoY Chinese fixed asset investment growth remains weak
1,200 (10,000 tonnes) 40 (% YoY)
35
1,000
30
800
25
600 20
15
400
10
200
5
- 0
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
EBITDA/Ton (USD)
Source: Angang, Antique; * Spot spreads based on 1HCY18 financials of Angang
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,000
1,200
1,400
0
200
400
600
800
Feb-07
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Feb-07
P/E band
P/B band
Jun-07 Jun-07
Feb-07 Oct-07
(INR)
(INR)
Oct-07 Jun-07
Feb-08 Feb-08
Oct-07
EV/EBITDA band
Jun-08
(INR m)
Oct-08 Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-09 Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-09 Feb-09 Jun-09
Oct-09 Jun-09 Oct-09
Feb-10 Oct-09 Feb-10
Tata Steel Limited
Oct-16
Feb-17 Feb-17
Jun-17 Feb-17
Jun-17 Jun-17
Oct-17 Oct-17
Oct-17
Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18
Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
Oct-18 Oct-18
Oct-18
Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19
2x
1x
1.5x
4x
10x
0.5x
2x
6x
4x
6x
8x
8x
27 February 2019 | 11
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Feb-07
Feb-07
P/E band
P/B band
Jun-07
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Oct-07 Jun-07
(INR)
Feb-07 Oct-07
(INR)
Feb-08
Jun-07 Feb-08
EV/EBITDA band
Jun-08
(INR m)
Oct-09 Feb-09
Feb-10 Oct-09
Jun-09 Feb-10
JSW Steel Limited
Jun-10 Oct-09
Oct-10 Jun-10
Feb-10 Oct-10
Feb-11 Jun-10
Jun-11 Oct-10 Feb-11
Oct-11 Feb-11 Jun-11
Feb-12 Jun-11 Oct-11
Jun-12 Oct-11 Feb-12
Oct-12 Feb-12 Jun-12
Feb-13 Jun-12 Oct-12
Jun-13 Oct-12 Feb-13
Oct-13 Feb-13 Jun-13
Jun-13 Oct-13
Feb-14
Oct-13 Feb-14
Jun-14
Feb-14 Jun-14
Oct-14 Jun-14
Feb-15 Oct-14
Oct-14 Feb-15
Jun-15 Feb-15
Oct-15 Jun-15
Jun-15 Oct-15
Feb-16 Oct-15
Jun-16 Feb-16
Feb-16
Oct-16 Jun-16 Jun-16
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
27 February 2019 | 12
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
0
50
100
150
200
250
100
150
200
250
0
50
(150)
(100)
(50)
Feb-07 Feb-07
P/E band
P/B band
1,000,000
1,200,000
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
0
Jun-07 Jun-07
(400,000)
(200,000)
(INR)
Oct-07 Oct-07
(INR)
Feb-07
Feb-08 Jun-07 Feb-08
EV/EBITDA band
Jun-08 Oct-07 Jun-08
(INR m)
Feb-09 Jun-08 Feb-09
Jun-09 Oct-08 Jun-09
Oct-09 Feb-09 Oct-09
Feb-10 Jun-09 Feb-10
Jun-10 Oct-09 Jun-10
Oct-10 Feb-10 Oct-10
Feb-11 Jun-10 Feb-11
Jun-11 Oct-10 Jun-11
Oct-11 Feb-11
Oct-11
Feb-12 Jun-11
Oct-11 Feb-12
Jun-12 Jun-12
Oct-12 Feb-12
Jun-12 Oct-12
Feb-13 Feb-13
Oct-12
Jun-13 Jun-13
Steel Authority of India Limited
Feb-13
Oct-13 Jun-13 Oct-13
Feb-14
Oct-13 Feb-14
Jun-14
Feb-14 Jun-14
Oct-14 Jun-14 Oct-14
Feb-15 Oct-14 Feb-15
Jun-15 Feb-15
Oct-15 Jun-15
Jun-15 Oct-15
Feb-16 Oct-15
Jun-16 Feb-16
Feb-16
Oct-16 Jun-16
Jun-16
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
0.5x
1x
1.5x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
27 February 2019 | 13
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
200
400
600
800
(400)
Feb-07 (200)
Feb-07
P/E band
P/B band
Jun-07
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
0
Jun-07
Oct-07
(INR)
Oct-07
(INR)
Feb-08 Feb-07
Jun-07 Feb-08
EV/EBITDA band
Jun-08
(INR m)
Feb-09 Jun-08 Feb-09
Jun-09 Oct-08 Jun-09
Oct-09 Feb-09 Oct-09
Feb-10 Jun-09 Feb-10
Jun-10 Oct-09 Jun-10
Oct-10 Feb-10 Oct-10
Feb-11 Jun-10
Feb-11
Jun-11 Oct-10
Feb-11 Jun-11
Oct-11
Jun-11 Oct-11
Feb-12 Feb-12
Jun-12 Oct-11
Feb-12 Jun-12
Oct-12
Jun-12 Oct-12
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
1.5x
8x
10x
4x
6x
0.5x
1x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
27 February 2019 | 14
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Feb-07 Feb-07
P/E band
P/B band
1,000,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jun-07 Jun-07
Oct-07 Feb-07 Oct-07
(INR)
(INR)
Feb-08 Jun-07 Feb-08
EV/EBITDA band
Oct-07
(INR m)
Oct-08 Feb-08 Oct-08
Feb-09 Jun-08 Feb-09
NMDC Limited
Oct-16
Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-17
Jun-17 Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17 Jun-17
Oct-17 Oct-17
Feb-18 Feb-18
Jun-18 Feb-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Oct-18 Oct-18
Feb-19 Oct-18
Feb-19 Feb-19
1x
1.5x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
0.5
2x
4x
6x
8x
27 February 2019 | 15
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Feb-11 Feb-11
P/E band
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
P/B band
(20,000)
(10,000)
Jun-11 Jun-11
(INR)
Feb-11
(INR)
Oct-11 Jun-11 Oct-11
EV/EBITDA band
(INR m)
MOIL Limited
Oct-17 Oct-17
Oct-17
Feb-18 Feb-18
Feb-18
Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
0.5x
Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18
Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19
8x
6x
4x
2x
4x
1x
1.5x
2x
8x
12x
16x
27 February 2019 | 16
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 17
Deferred tax/ other liabilities 119 122 122 122 122 PAT 327 (4) 227 (18) 1
Capital Employed 1,374 1,693 1,788 1,854 1,953 EPS 327 (4) 227 (18) 1
Networth 226 280 335 371 409 EBITDA 100.5 21.5 21.1 (15.0) 10.7
Debt 455 407 416 486 553 PAT 154.7 83.9 13.5 (28.6) 4.3
Deferred tax/other liabilities (38) (42) (42) (42) (42) PAT nm nm (785.2) (39.1) 60.1
Capital employed 771 819 843 838 841 EPS nm nm (785.2) (39.1) 60.1
MOIL - Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm) Cash flow statement (INRm)
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e
Revenues 9,898 13,235 14,219 15,202 15,430 PBT 4,619 6,479 7,285 8,047 8,087
Expenses 6,944 7,908 7,995 8,349 8,692 Depreciation 547 624 654 692 730
EBITDA 2,955 5,327 6,224 6,853 6,738 (Inc)/ Dec in working capital (554) 2,251 (975) (177) 53
Depreciation & amortisation 547 624 654 692 730 Tax paid (1,561) (2,259) (2,477) (2,736) (2,750)
EBIT 2,408 4,702 5,570 6,161 6,008 CF from operating activities 3,051 7,095 4,487 5,825 6,121
Other income 2,211 1,777 1,715 1,886 2,079 Capex (902) (1,982) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)
Profit before tax 4,619 6,479 7,285 8,047 8,087 CF from investing activities (902) (1,982) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)
Tax 1,561 2,259 2,477 2,736 2,750 Inc/ (Dec) in share capital and premium (348) - - - -
Reported Profit after tax 3,058 4,220 4,808 5,311 5,337 Dividends & Interest paid (1,763) (1,705) (1,240) (1,550) (1,550)
Adjusted PAT 3,058 4,220 4,808 5,311 5,337 Others (7,628) (2,695)
EPS (INR) 11.9 16.4 18.7 20.6 20.7 CF from financing activities (9,739) (4,400) (1,240) (1,550) (1,550)
Net cash flow (7,590) 713 1,247 2,275 2,571
Balance sheet (INRm) Add: Opening balance 28,501 20,911 21,624 22,871 25,146
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Closing balance 20,911 21,624 22,871 25,146 27,717
Share Capital 1,332 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576
Reserves & Surplus 26,722 25,416 28,984 32,744 36,532 Growth indicators (%)
Networth 28,054 27,992 31,560 35,321 39,108 Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e
Deferred tax/ other liabilities 60 23 23 23 23 Revenue 56.0 33.7 7.4 6.9 1.5
Capital Employed 28,114 28,015 31,583 35,344 39,131 EBITDA 318.7 80.3 16.9 10.1 (1.7)
Gross Fixed Assets 7,346 8,105 8,605 9,105 9,605 PAT 76.8 38.0 13.9 10.4 0.5
Accumulated Depreciation 4,084 4,627 5,281 5,973 6,703 EPS 76.8 38.0 13.9 10.4 0.5
Assumptions
(INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e
Freight Division 8,908 9,710 10,590 11,992 14,238 16,374 18,830
YoY% 7.2 9.0 9.1 13.2 18.7 15.0 15.0
Supply Chain Solutions 7,813 6,310 7,374 9,126 10,294 12,352 14,823
YoY% 11.8 -19.2 16.9 23.7 12.8 20.0 20.0
Seaways Division 1,220 1,402 1,639 2,564 3,539 4,423 5,529
YoY% 7.2 15.0 16.9 56.4 38.0 25.0 25.0
Total Revenue 17,580 17,270 19,425 23,461 27,769 32,778 38,721
YoY% 8.1 -1.8 12.5 20.8 18.4 18.0 18.1
EBITDA
Freight Division 240 284 356 435 484 573 659
Supply Chain Solutions 897 672 779 942 1,050 1,272 1,527
Seaways Division 337 412 507 825 920 1,194 1,438
Total 1,414 1,294 1,620 2,127 2,391 2,980 3,567
YoY% 18.1 -8.5 25.2 31.3 12.4 24.6 19.7
EBITDA Margin %
Freight Division 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5
Supply Chain Solutions 11.5 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.3
Seaways Division 27.6 29.4 30.9 32.2 26.0 27.0 26.0
Total 8.0 7.5 8.3 9.1 8.6 9.1 9.2
PAT 551 561 807 1,232 1,390 1,738 2,095
EPS 7.2 7.3 10.5 16.1 18.2 22.7 27.4
YoY% 19.6 1.9 43.8 52.6 12.9 25.0 20.6
CFO 677 1,087 988 1,801 1,711 2,047 2,467
Capex 1,446 1,035 1,153 1,591 1,800 2,000 2,000
Source: Company, Antique
Change in estimates
Key parameters FY19e FY20e FY21e
New % Chg Old New % Chg Old New % Chg
Revenue (Rs mn) 27,769 (0.2) 32,862 32,778 (0.3) - 38,721 -
EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,391 (1.6) 3,059 2,980 (2.6) - 3,567 -
EBITDA margin (%) 8.6 -12bps 9.3 9.1 -22bps - 9.2 -
Net profit (Rs mn) 1,390 (1.7) 1,763 1,738 (1.4) - 2,095 -
EPS (Rs) 18.2 (1.7) 23.0 22.7 (1.4) - 27.4 -
Source: Bloomberg
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 25
Financials (Consolidated)
Profit and loss account (INRm) Cash flow statement (INRm)
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Net Revenue 19,425 23,461 27,769 32,778 38,721 PBT 1,004 1,525 1,712 2,140 2,580
Op. Expenses 17,805 21,334 25,378 29,798 35,155 Depreciation & amortisation 592 686 781 951 1,123
EBITDA 1,620 2,127 2,391 2,980 3,567 Interest expense 301 322 385 434 471
Depreciation 592 686 781 951 1,123 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (637) (342) (627) (853) (995)
EBIT 1,028 1,441 1,610 2,029 2,444 Tax paid (250) (368) (322) (402) (485)
Other income 122 182 218 223 227 Less: Interest/Dividend Income Recd. (10) (8) (218) (223) (227)
Interest Exp. 301 322 385 434 471 Other operating Cash Flow (13) (13) - - -
Reported PBT 849 1,301 1,443 1,817 2,199 CF from operating activities 988 1,801 1,711 2,047 2,467
Tax 191 287 322 402 485 Capital expenditure (1,153) (1,591) (1,800) (2,000) (2,000)
Reported PAT 658 1,014 1,121 1,415 1,714 Inc/(Dec) in investments (75) 40 (269) (323) (381)
Minority Int./Profit (loss) From Asso. 155 224 269 323 381 Add: Interest/Dividend Income Recd. 5 9 218 223 227
Net Profit 813 1,238 1,390 1,738 2,095 CF from investing activities (1,223) (1,543) (1,851) (2,100) (2,154)
Adjusted PAT 807 1,232 1,390 1,738 2,095 Inc/(Dec) in share capital 25 - - - -
Adjusted EPS (INR) 10.5 16.1 18.2 22.7 27.4 Inc/(Dec) in debt 670 184 600 600 300
Dividend Paid (404) (486) (533) (583) (619)
Balance sheet (INRm) Others 25 - - - -
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e CF from financing activities 316 (303) 67 17 (319)
Share Capital 153 153 153 153 153 Net cash flow 81 (44) (73) (36) (6)
Reserves & Surplus 6,312 7,465 8,707 10,296 12,243 Opening balance 105 187 142 69 34
Networth 6,466 7,618 8,860 10,449 12,396 Closing balance 187 142 69 34 27
Debt 4,213 4,396 4,996 5,596 5,896
Minority Interest 43 47 47 47 47 Growth indicators (%)
Net deferred Tax liabilities 395 445 445 445 445 Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Capital Employed 11,116 12,506 14,348 16,537 18,784 Revenue(%) 12.5 20.8 18.4 18.0 18.1
Net Fixed Assets 5,985 6,821 7,840 8,889 9,766 EBITDA(%) 25.2 31.3 12.4 24.6 19.7
Investments 866 1,044 1,313 1,635 2,016 Adj PAT(%) 43.8 52.6 12.9 25.0 20.6
Non Current Investments 866 1,044 1,313 1,635 2,016 Adj EPS(%) 43.8 52.6 12.9 25.0 20.6
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 5,443 6,113 6,890 7,917 9,159
Inventory 25 33 33 33 33 Valuation (x)
Debtors 3,584 4,249 4,945 5,837 6,896 Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Cash & Bank balance 187 142 69 34 27 P/E 26.6 17.4 15.4 12.3 10.2
Loans & advances and others 1,647 1,689 1,842 2,013 2,203 P/BV 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.7
Current Liabilities & Prov. 1,179 1,472 1,695 1,904 2,157 EV/EBITDA 15.8 12.1 11.0 9.1 7.7
Liabilities 1,126 1,417 1,639 1,849 2,102 EV/Sales 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
Provisions 53 55 55 55 55 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Net Current Assets 4,264 4,641 5,195 6,013 7,002
Application of Funds 11,116 12,506 14,348 16,537 18,784
Financial ratios
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Per share data RoE (%) 13.2 17.5 16.9 18.0 18.3
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e RoCE (%) 12.6 15.6 15.6 16.7 17.3
No. of shares (m) 77 77 77 77 77 Asset/T.O (x) 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
Diluted no. of shares (m) 77 77 77 77 77 Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.62 0.56 0.56 0.53 0.47
BVPS (INR) 84.4 99.4 115.7 136.4 161.8 EBIT/Interest (x) 3.8 5.0 4.7 5.2 5.7
CEPS (INR) 16.3 22.2 24.8 30.9 37.0
DPS (INR) 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Margins (%)
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Source: Company, Antique
EBITDA Margin(%) 8.3 9.1 8.6 9.1 9.2
EBIT Margin(%) 5.3 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.3
PAT Margin(%) 4.2 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.4
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 26
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n ) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY20 FY20 FY20 1m 12m
AGROCHEM
Bayer Cropscience Buy 4,281 4,740 11 147.0 2.1 2.9 5.3 7.1 83.2 117.8 158.2 51.5 36.3 27.1 32.0 18.5 14.3 3.0 12.6 17.7 -1 10
Dhanuka Agri Buy 400 510 28 19.6 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 22.7 27.6 32.1 17.6 14.5 12.5 12.2 9.6 7.7 2.4 17.7 24.3 -4 -38
PI Industries Buy 911 990 9 125.7 1.8 4.2 5.1 6.2 30.4 37.2 44.9 30.0 24.5 20.3 21.5 17.2 14.1 4.7 20.7 27.3 7 2
Rallis India Buy 153 220 44 29.7 0.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 9.0 10.6 12.4 17.0 14.4 12.4 10.2 8.4 7.1 2.1 15.0 21.1 -6 -34
Sharda Cropchem Buy 355 500 41 32.0 0.5 2.3 2.8 3.2 25.9 30.8 35.4 13.7 11.5 10.0 7.4 5.8 4.8 2.1 19.4 28.0 16 -15
UPL Buy 855 910 6 435.4 6.1 21.9 25.9 29.3 43.1 60.5 75.8 19.8 14.1 11.3 11.7 10.2 8.8 3.4 21.9 22.6 14 19
AUTOMOBILES
Apollo Tyres Buy 210 252 20 119.9 1.7 9.1 11.8 13.1 15.8 20.6 22.9 13.2 10.2 9.1 6.9 6.0 5.6 1.0 10.8 11.4 -1 -22
Ashok Leyland Buy 83 148 78 244.5 3.4 19.4 26.3 19.1 6.6 9.0 6.5 12.6 9.3 12.7 6.5 4.4 5.5 2.4 26.1 24.8 1 -39
Atul Auto Buy 301 422 40 6.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 23.0 27.6 28.1 13.1 10.9 10.7 8.4 7.0 6.7 2.2 22.2 33.0 -2 -28
Bajaj Auto Buy 2,859 3,213 12 827.4 11.6 43.5 49.2 51.7 150.5 169.9 178.5 19.0 16.8 16.0 16.7 14.2 13.2 3.4 20.5 29.4 9 -5
Bharat Forge Hold 506 500 (1) 235.7 3.3 10.2 11.8 12.0 21.8 25.3 25.7 23.2 20.0 19.7 13.0 11.6 11.3 4.2 21.1 22.2 6 -34
Ceat Hold 1,077 1,081 0 43.6 0.6 2.8 3.2 3.6 68.1 80.1 90.1 15.8 13.5 12.0 9.6 8.0 6.6 1.4 10.9 12.7 -9 -33
Eicher Motors Buy 20,620 28,672 39 562.6 7.9 23.6 31.1 34.0 869.11,145.71,251.0 23.7 18.0 16.5 15.7 11.5 8.8 4.8 30.1 39.1 3 -24
Hero MotoCorp Hold 2,689 2,786 4 537.1 7.5 35.0 39.1 34.8 175.1 195.7 174.1 15.4 13.7 15.4 10.5 9.3 10.3 3.7 27.2 39.0 1 -24
Mahindra & Mahindra Buy 651 907 39 809.7 11.4 45.6 55.3 55.5 36.7 44.5 44.6 17.7 14.6 14.6 12.0 9.9 9.7 2.2 14.8 13.7 -5 -11
Mahindra CIE Buy 228 350 54 86.2 1.2 5.5 5.8 6.7 14.5 15.4 17.7 15.7 14.8 12.9 - - - 1.8 13.0 15.3 -2 -1
Maruti Suzuki Sell 6,904 5,305 (23) 2,085.7 29.3 78.5 86.1 89.0 259.8 285.1 294.7 26.6 24.2 23.4 16.9 14.8 13.5 4.1 17.8 25.3 6 -23
Minda Corp Buy 126 180 43 28.6 0.4 1.8 2.3 2.5 7.9 10.0 11.3 16.0 12.6 11.2 10.0 8.3 7.2 1.8 17.2 17.2 -14 -34
Minda Industries Hold 309 321 4 81.0 1.1 3.8 4.5 5.2 14.5 17.1 20.1 21.3 18.0 15.4 11.9 9.9 8.5 3.7 22.9 21.0 6 -17
Motherson Sumi Hold 157 168 7 497.2 7.0 19.2 25.7 29.5 6.1 8.1 9.3 25.8 19.3 16.9 9.8 7.6 6.4 3.7 20.8 22.1 4 -28
Schaeffler India Ltd Buy 5,301 6,178 17 88.1 1.2 2.9 3.4 3.7 175.8 205.4 224.4 30.1 25.8 23.6 17.8 15.3 13.7 3.9 16.1 24.3 -1 0
SKF India Buy 1,964 2,067 5 100.8 1.4 3.4 3.9 4.6 66.4 76.3 89.9 29.6 25.8 21.9 18.9 16.0 13.2 4.2 17.5 27.1 2 7
Tata Motors Buy 183 240 32 573.6 8.1 -9.0 49.5 67.6 -2.7 14.6 19.9 -68.8 12.5 9.2 4.1 2.8 2.4 0.6 5.0 3.5 5 -51
Timken India Buy 568 738 30 42.7 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.1 16.5 23.3 28.4 34.4 24.3 20.0 16.3 12.5 10.4 3.9 16.7 23.1 3 -29
TVS Motors Buy 456 745 63 216.7 3.0 7.5 11.3 12.9 15.8 23.7 27.2 28.8 19.3 16.8 14.6 10.2 8.7 5.3 27.5 33.7 -8 -33
BUILDING MATERIALS
Astral Poly Technik Hold 1,100 880 (20) 131.8 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.7 18.8 24.1 31.2 58.7 45.6 35.3 33.6 26.8 21.3 8.8 21.2 28.2 7 35
Century Plyboards India Buy 162 220 36 35.9 0.5 1.7 2.0 2.5 7.5 8.9 11.5 21.6 18.1 14.1 13.3 11.1 9.1 3.1 18.6 18.4 -3 -50
Cera Sanitaryware Hold 2,323 2,500 8 30.2 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.6 87.1 107.4 125.5 26.7 21.6 18.5 15.2 12.4 10.4 3.7 18.1 26.4 -7 -27
Finolex Industries Hold 463 560 21 57.4 0.8 3.8 3.9 4.3 31.0 32.5 35.5 14.9 14.2 13.0 6.7 6.0 5.2 1.8 13.0 18.7 -13 -29
Greenlam Industries Buy 700 930 33 16.9 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 32.5 39.1 46.4 21.5 17.9 15.1 11.2 9.5 8.2 3.3 20.1 23.6 -17 -40
Greenply Industries Buy 145 160 11 17.7 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 6.8 7.9 9.8 21.3 18.3 14.7 12.2 10.2 8.4 1.7 9.7 9.7 10 -58
Kajaria Ceramics Hold 539 550 2 85.7 1.2 2.4 3.2 4.0 15.4 19.8 25.1 35.1 27.1 21.5 18.2 14.5 11.5 4.7 18.8 26.0 0 -6
Somany Ceramics Hold 325 380 17 13.8 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 10.5 17.8 23.5 30.8 18.2 13.8 11.9 8.6 6.9 2.1 11.8 13.0 -6 -50
Supreme Industries Buy 1,110 1,190 7 141.1 2.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 39.2 47.5 55.4 28.3 23.4 20.0 15.8 13.2 11.2 5.7 26.3 33.8 11 -6
CEMENT
ACC Buy 1,384 1,700 23 260.0 3.7 10.7 12.4 13.9 56.9 65.8 74.0 24.3 21.0 18.7 10.8 9.7 8.9 2.3 11.3 16.8 1 -17
Ambuja Cement Hold 212 220 3 421.7 5.9 12.4 13.5 15.1 6.3 6.8 7.6 33.9 31.1 28.0 20.6 18.2 16.4 1.9 6.3 8.7 5 -19
Dalmia Bharat Buy 1,176 1,280 9 226.6 3.2 2.1 3.8 6.5 11.0 19.8 34.0 106.8 59.4 34.6 13.7 12.2 10.2 2.1 3.6 6.0 18
Grasim Industries Buy 781 1,015 30 513.6 7.2 26.1 27.4 28.3 39.7 41.7 43.1 19.7 18.7 18.1 12.3 12.3 11.4 1.0 5.7 7.7 3 -34
JK Lakshmi Cement Buy 316 340 8 37.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.7 7.0 13.9 22.5 45.1 22.7 14.0 12.3 9.2 7.0 2.2 10.2 11.6 8 -27
Orient Cement Hold 69 75 8 14.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.7 4.4 124.4 40.4 15.7 10.3 8.9 6.7 1.4 3.4 7.9 -4 -58
Shree Cements Hold 16,594 17,450 5 578.1 8.1 12.8 15.4 18.2 368.5 441.2 522.8 45.0 37.6 31.7 20.6 16.5 13.8 5.1 14.5 15.7 6 -2
UltraTech Cement Hold 3,789 3,880 2 1,040.5 14.6 21.9 30.7 40.2 79.7 106.2 139.3 47.6 35.7 27.2 19.2 14.8 12.2 3.0 9.5 10.4 8 -9
FMCG & RETAIL
Asian Paints Buy 1,402 1,560 11 1,344.8 18.9 22.5 27.7 33.3 23.4 28.8 34.7 59.8 48.6 40.4 36.9 29.7 24.9 11.9 26.4 35.8 2 27
Bajaj Consumer Care Buy 348 479 38 51.3 0.7 2.3 2.7 3.2 15.4 18.3 21.8 22.5 19.0 16.0 17.3 14.4 11.9 10.3 55.0 68.2 1 -28
Colgate Palmolive Buy 1,245 1,455 17 338.6 4.8 7.7 8.8 9.9 28.2 32.3 36.4 44.2 38.6 34.2 25.7 22.2 19.4 12.7 35.9 53.8 -3 19
Avenue Supermarts BUY 1,469 1,817 24 917.0 12.9 10.8 13.4 18.3 17.4 21.5 29.3 84.6 68.4 50.2 52.0 41.6 30.5 13.0 20.9 30.2 8 14
Emami BUY 399 495 24 181.2 2.5 5.3 6.5 7.5 11.7 14.2 16.5 34.0 28.0 24.2 22.9 19.1 16.1 7.2 27.8 32.7 -5 -28
Future Consumer BUY 46 70 52 88.2 1.2 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 697.6 95.3 66.5 82.5 40.7 29.3 7.9 9.3 10.6 16 -24
Future Lifestyle BUY 427 566 33 83.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.7 9.2 10.6 14.0 46.4 40.2 30.4 16.4 14.2 11.5 4.4 11.5 18.9 1 14
Future Retail Buy 416 680 64 208.9 2.9 7.2 7.7 9.2 14.3 15.4 18.3 29.0 27.0 22.7 21.5 15.6 12.3 4.6 18.6 23.7 -6 -19
Godrej Consumer Hold 654 750 15 668.9 9.4 15.5 18.4 21.9 15.2 18.0 21.4 43.1 36.4 30.6 29.2 24.6 20.7 7.6 22.8 24.1 -16 -8
Hindustan Unilever Hold 1,772 1,786 1 3,836.3 53.9 62.2 73.0 82.0 28.8 33.7 37.9 61.6 52.5 46.7 42.7 36.2 31.8 51.6 98.7 147.2 1 33
ITC Buy 276 356 29 3,374.7 47.4 122.2 137.8 155.1 10.0 11.3 12.7 27.5 24.4 21.7 19.0 16.7 14.7 5.7 24.5 35.8 -1 3
Jyothy Labs Buy 179 213 19 65.7 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 5.3 6.2 7.1 33.5 28.9 25.2 22.2 19.8 17.5 6.1 20.7 21.2 0 3
Kansai Nerolac Hold 454 470 4 244.4 3.4 5.0 6.2 7.2 9.4 11.5 13.4 48.5 39.5 33.8 29.5 24.2 20.8 6.4 17.1 26.1 1 -7
Marico Buy 341 403 18 440.7 6.2 9.6 12.5 14.4 7.5 9.7 11.2 45.8 35.3 30.5 32.3 24.8 21.3 12.4 38.3 50.0 -8 11
Nestle HOLD 10,804 9,800 (9) 1,041.7 14.6 17.5 20.0 23.6 181.4 207.1 245.0 59.6 52.2 44.1 36.5 32.1 26.7 25.9 51.9 77.4 -5 42
Shoppers Stop BUY 481 628 31 42.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 10.7 14.3 18.0 45.1 33.7 26.7 16.6 13.1 10.4 3.7 11.5 16.1 -7 -10
Trent BUY 323 398 23 107.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.9 4.9 6.9 82.7 65.4 46.5 47.0 38.4 27.8 5.7 9.1 11.6 -7 4
V-Mart Retail BUY 2,547 3,040 19 46.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 44.8 59.9 75.0 56.8 42.5 34.0 30.6 23.5 18.1 8.7 22.6 34.9 4 60
V2 Retail BUY 256 448 75 8.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 10.8 13.8 20.9 23.7 18.6 12.3 14.2 8.9 5.7 2.5 14.6 21.5 -6 -36
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 27
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n ) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY20 FY20 FY20 1m 12m
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n ) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY20 FY20 FY20 1m 12m
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) ABVS (INR) P/AdjBV (x) NNPA Ratio (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n ) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY20 FY20 FY20 1m 12m
FINANCIALS
Axis Bank Buy 710 770 8 1,825.7 25.7 47.2 108.8 136.8 241.9 267.5 303.6 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.9 17.0 14.7 1.3 6 29
Bank of Baroda Buy 102 145 43 268.5 3.8 29.1 60.2 87.5 105.9 132.7 157.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 4.1 2.9 2.5 4.5 13.9 0.7 -8 -29
Canara Bank Hold 218 275 26 164.2 2.3 9.3 39.3 53.7 194.4 313.3 390.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 5.6 3.3 2.7 4.1 12.4 0.5 -14 -30
City Union Bank Hold 178 220 24 130.7 1.8 7.0 8.0 9.3 67.1 78.8 92.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 14.9 15.3 1.7 -6 14
DCB Bank Hold 184 200 9 56.9 0.8 3.2 4.1 5.5 87.8 99.7 115.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 13.7 13.7 1.0 2 10
Federal Bank Buy 82 110 35 162.1 2.3 12.1 16.4 20.9 59.7 65.9 74.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.9 9.9 12.0 0.9 -6 -15
HDFC Bank Buy 2,111 2,500 18 5,745.1 80.7 209.9 254.5 308.9 529.3 599.3 684.5 4.0 3.5 3.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 22.5 16.3 1.9 1 10
ICICI Bank Buy 348 445 28 2,243.5 31.5 41.7 145.9 164.0 146.4 170.7 190.1 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.7 15.4 14.5 1.4 -3 6
IndusInd Bank Buy 1,478 1,925 30 890.8 12.5 47.0 61.3 77.1 422.5 518.6 604.7 3.5 2.9 2.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 17.0 17.9 1.9 0 -13
Karur Vysya Bank Hold 68 90 32 54.7 0.8 2.1 4.7 7.8 59.8 65.2 72.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 4.8 3.7 3.1 11.7 7.2 0.6 -26 -32
Kotak Mahindra Bank Buy 1,236 1,425 15 2,358.6 33.1 48.0 59.9 74.6 196.9 222.7 254.8 6.3 5.6 4.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 39.4 13.3 1.7 -2 12
Punjab National Bank Hold 72 90 25 273.2 3.8 -43.6 31.7 64.5 49.0 76.6 88.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 6.9 3.9 3.6 8.9 7.5 0.4 -6 -36
State Bank of India Buy 266 365 37 2,377.1 33.4 27.2 273.9 372.6 162.9 184.7 213.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 8.7 13.6 0.7 -7 -3
South Indian Bank Buy 13 18 36 24.1 0.3 2.3 5.8 7.5 22.9 25.9 29.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.5 1.9 1.5 4.2 10.7 0.6 -1 -51
Union Bank of India Hold 70 95 36 81.4 1.1 4.9 1.9 31.2 59.2 115.6 139.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 7.7 4.3 3.7 43.6 0.8 0.0 -12 -35
YES Bank Buy 230 250 9 530.8 7.5 39.4 56.1 68.9 114.8 138.3 159.7 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 9.4 18.0 1.3 5 -30
NBFCs
Bajaj Finance Hold 2,658 2,924 10 1,536.0 21.6 38.3 53.0 72.3 344.4 423.6 531.6 7.7 6.3 5.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 28.8 24.0 4.1 2 59
Cholamandalam Invst & Fin Buy 1,200 1,536 28 187.7 2.6 12.0 13.1 16.0 366.1 432.4 513.5 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 14.3 19.5 2.4 5 -17
Equitas Holding Hold 112 134 20 38.2 0.5 2.2 3.3 4.3 70.7 79.5 91.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 11.6 12.4 1.7 -4 -24
Gruh Finance Hold 247 290 17 181.4 2.5 4.4 5.1 6.1 22.7 27.3 32.6 10.9 9.1 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 35.6 27.8 2.5 9 -9
HDFC Buy 1,854 2,159 16 3,188.2 44.8 92.3 107.8 123.1 400.4 443.7 493.7 4.6 4.2 3.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 28.8 14.1 2.2 -6 1
LIC Housing Finance Buy 464 440 (5) 234.1 3.3 23.1 26.0 30.1 287.9 329.1 376.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 9.0 16.7 1.3 2 -10
Manappuram Hold 113 107 (5) 95.3 1.3 8.6 10.0 11.6 51.7 59.6 69.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 9.6 20.6 5.1 14 3
M&M Finance Hold 389 454 17 240.5 3.4 13.5 15.0 18.2 124.1 139.8 157.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 16.0 13.8 1.9 -7 -13
Muthoot Capital Buy 789 1,088 38 13.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.7 290.5 361.8 462.8 2.7 2.2 1.7 3.3 3.0 4.0 11.1 21.9 3.4 -13 4
Muthoot Finance Buy 526 651 24 210.7 3.0 19.8 22.1 24.8 216.1 257.8 306.4 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 9.5 21.8 6.3 -2 35
PNB Hsg. Fin. Hold 912 1,140 25 152.7 2.1 9.1 10.4 12.4 433.1 495.7 570.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 14.6 13.5 1.3 2 -26
Repco Home Finance Hold 326 375 15 20.4 0.3 2.5 2.8 3.2 244.7 282.2 324.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 7.2 17.3 2.3 -20 -42
Shriram City Union Buy 1,616 1,999 24 106.7 1.5 9.6 9.2 10.7 750.9 865.7 996.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 4.8 4.1 3.6 11.6 13.6 2.7 -7 -18
Shriram Transport Buy 1,130 1,307 16 256.3 3.6 23.3 26.8 26.8 539.2 637.8 637.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 9.6 16.9 2.3 1 -16
Sundaram Finance Buy 1,562 1,751 12 173.5 2.4 6.2 7.3 8.5 434.1 493.8 493.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 23.9 15.8 2.1 7 -9
Ujjivan Financial Hold 277 315 14 33.6 0.5 2.0 2.8 3.7 159.2 180.3 209.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 11.9 13.4 2.1 -1 -26
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2019 | 30
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