Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

Steady performance amid challenging environment CMP ` 2,619

Bajaj Auto’s (BJAUT) 1QFY20 EBITDA was ` 12bn (-6.5% YoY) and margins Target / Upside ` 2,950 / 13%
was 15.4% (-182 bps YoY/-27bps QoQ), broadly in line with our estimates.
The management expects 2W industry volume to remain subdued in the BSE Sensex 37,935
near-term, due to challenging macro conditions, we however expect BJAUT NSE Nifty 11,284
to outperform the industry’s growth rate. We maintain our positive stance,
Scrip Details
given its 1) wide product portfolio and diversified geographical mix, 2)
continued boost of distribution network, and 3) strong cash balance (22% Equity / FV ` 2,894mn / ` 10
of current market cap). However, margin recovery is unlikely in the Market Cap ` 758bn
medium term, given its aggressive market share aspirations and the related US$ 11bn
high regulation-led cost pressures. We lower our EPS estimates by 5/7%
52-week High/Low ` 3,150/` 2,420
for FY20/21E, factoring in weak 3W volume and cost pressure. We expect
8% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E, primarily led by 8% growth in revenue (+4% Avg. Volume (no) 4,80,147
volume, 4% in ASP). We recommend Accumulate rating, with a SOTP-based NSE Symbol BAJAJ-AUTO
TP of ` 2,950 (16x FY21E core EPS + cash + 40% discount for the KTM stake). Bloomberg Code BJAUT IN
Dealer inventory was higher at 7-8 weeks, while factory inventory was Shareholding Pattern Jun'19(%)
almost zero. Management expects onset of festival season likely to boost Promoters 53.5
Result Update

sales and bring inventory level down to normal level of 5 weeks. Bajaj Auto MF/Banks/FIs 8.6
launched 3 new products in Q1FY20 - Platina 110H, CT110 kick start and
CT110 electric start in 1Q. Company is likely to announce a 125cc variant in FIIs 15.1
the upcoming 3 weeks. Bajaj Auto is well equipped to launch electric 2w Public / Others 22.8
and is awaiting a strategic time to launch the same. Management expects
2W export continue to do well while 3W export volume to be impacted by Valuation (x)
adverse legislative developments in Egypt. FY19A FY20E FY21E
P/E 17.5 16.5 15.1
Focused on product and network expansion
As part of its strategy, the company undertook selective pricing action (in EV/EBITDA 15.0 14.4 12.7
CT100), product actions (in Pulsar), and increased marketing efforts. This ROE (%) 22.9 20.4 20.3
drove a 220bp market share recovery to 18.3% in FY19, as compared to RoACE (%) 20.8 19.9 19.8
16.2% in FY18. Although, the focus on the entry-level segment is EBITDA
dilutive, it is helping the company win back mass/rural customers and
energizing dealer relations (via volume thrust). Its focus on improving Estimates (` mn)
market share by improving the distribution network (+10% YoY dealership FY19A FY20E FY21E
addition) and product expansion appears to be working. Revenue 3,02,500 3,20,839 3,54,400
EBITDA 49,820 51,069 55,375
Q1FY20 Result (` Mn)
PAT 46,752 46,013 50,114
Particulars Q1FY20 Q1FY19 YoY (%) Q4FY19 QoQ (%)
EPS (`) 149.8 159.0 173.2
Revenue 77,558 74,193 4.5 73,952 4.9
Total Expense 65,576 61,378 6.8 62,329 5.2
EBITDA 11,982 12,815 (6.5) 11,623 3.1
Depreciation 601 700 (14.0) 608 (1.1)
EBIT 11,381 12,115 (6.1) 11,014 3.3
Other Income 4,413 4,044 9.1 4,327 2.0 Analyst: Abhishek Jain
Interest 5 3 74.2 3 86.2 Tel: +9122 40969739
EBT 15,788 16,156 (6.1) 18,759 (15.8) E-mail: abhishekj@dolatcapital.com
Tax 4,531 5,003 (9.4) 5,703 (20.5)
RPAT 11,257 11,153 0.9 13,056 (13.8)
Associate: Ketul Dalal
APAT 11,257 11,153 0.9 9,636 16.8 Tel: +91 22 4096 9770
(bps) (bps) E-mail: ketuld@dolatcapital.com
Gross Margin (%) 28.3 28.6 (31) 27.7 54
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.4 17.3 (182) 15.7 (27)
NPM (%) 14.5 15.0 (52) 17.7 (314)
Tax Rate (%) 28.7 31.0 (227) 30.4 (170)
EBIT Margin (%) 14.7 16.3 (166) 14.9 (22)

July 26, 2019

 Key Concall Highlights
 Bajaj Auto management has remained cautious of the industry growth due
to the overall slowdown faced by the auto industry. However, the
management is confident of outperforming the industry growth rates.
 Dealer inventory at 7-8 weeks (3 weeks above average). Company has been
destocking gradually. Onset of festival season likely to boost sales and bring
inventory level down to normal level of 5 weeks. No inventory maintained
at factory.
 Bajaj Auto launched 3 new products in Q1FY20 - Platina 110H, CT110 kick
start and CT110 electric start. Company is likely to announce a 125cc variant
in the upcoming 3 weeks. Company is well equipped to launch electric 2w
and is awaiting a strategic time to launch the same
 Bajaj Auto has 18.3% market share in the domestic motorcycle segment in
Q1FY20 vs 16.3% in Q1FY19. Retail share in the domestic motorcycle market
is nearly 19%.
 ASP outperformance driven by price increases due to CBS and ABS (~` 4500).
Company has also taken a price hike of 1.5-2% in the 3w segment.
 The Motorcycle Segment has a network of 700 dealers, 250 branches and
3,000 sub-dealers. Bajaj Auto added 10% dealers to the network in FY19 and
has plans to add further 40-50 dealers in the coming 6 months.
 Commodity prices have witnessed marginal dilution on a sequential basis
and are expected to remain at similar levels for Q2FY20.
 The management expects EBITDA margins to largely remain range bound as
positive impact of softening commodity prices offset by partial pass-through
of regulatory costs. Insurance and ABS/CBS cost has pushed the prices up by
8-10%.
 All of the international markets for BJAUT are performing well, except Egypt
where has impacted sales where Bajaj sells 10k 3W /month and has 95%
market share.
 Export revenue breakup – Q1FY20 ` 30.5bn (vs Q1FY19 – ` 30bn and Q4FY19
– ` 28bn)

Key Assumptions Sheet

(in units) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Domestic Sales 22,54,540 23,44,213 29,40,146 30,31,619 31,91,116
% YoY 4.7 4.0 25.4 3.1 5.3
2W 20,01,393 19,74,576 25,41,320 26,53,973 27,99,577
% YoY 5.4 (1.3) 28.7 4.4 5.5
3W 2,53,147 3,69,637 3,98,826 3,77,646 3,91,539
% YoY (0.7) 46.0 7.9 (5.3) 3.7

Exports Sales 14,08,998 16,60,972 20,74,330 21,45,305 23,25,406

% YoY (19.0) 17.9 24.9 3.4 8.4
2W 12,17,762 13,94,757 16,95,553 18,04,405 19,53,825
% YoY (16.6) 14.5 21.6 6.4 8.3
3W 1,91,236 2,66,215 3,78,777 3,40,899 3,71,580
% YoY (31.7) 39.2 42.3 (10.0) 9.0
Source: DART, Company

July 26, 2019 2

 Net Revenue Supported by Increase in ASP Net ASP Improved on Richer Mix
1,00,000 50 66,000 10
80,000 40 64,000 6
30 62,000
60,000 2
20 60,000
40,000 -2
10 58,000
20,000 0 -6
56,000
0 (10) 54,000 -10
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Net Revenue (Rs mn) % Growth (YoY) Net ASP % Growth (YoY) (RHS)
Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

Volume Growth Remained Strong YoY Motorcycle Sales Mix

1,400 50% 100%
40%
1,200
80% 42% 43% 39% 44% 41% 37% 38% 49% 46%
30%
20% 60% 9% 5% 4%
1,000 15% 9% 9% 3% 3%
10% 18%
40%
800 0% 58% 58% 48% 51%
-10% 20% 43% 48% 52% 38% 50%
600 -20% 0%
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Total Volume ('000) % YoY (RHS) Economy Executive Premium
Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

Motorcycle Market Share 2-Wheeler v/s 3-Wheeler Sales Mix

21% 20.4% 100%
20% 19.0% 13% 14% 14% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 16%
18.7% 80%
19% 18.3%
18% 17.0% 60%
16.3%
17% 16.4% 87% 86% 86% 82% 82% 84% 84% 86% 84%
40%
16% 15.3%
20%
15% 14.0%
14% 0%
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

13%
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

2W 3W

Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

July 26, 2019 3

 Domestic v/s Export Mix Gross Margin Improved QoQ
1,400 50% 21,000 34
1,200 40%
535 524 32
1,000 538 478 550 30% 19,000
403
800 424 426 20% 30
600 410 10%
17,000
400 669 577 619 689 805 735 712 697 0% 28
200 479 -10%
0 -20% 15,000 26

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Dom ('000) Exports ('000) % YoY (RHS) Gross profit/vehicle (Rs) Gross margin (%) (RHS)

Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

EBITDA Margin Under Pressure 1 Year Forward P/E Band

15,000 21 24
12,500 20 22
10,000 19 20
7,500 18 18
5,000 17 16
2,500 16 14
0 15 12
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA Margin (%) PE Avg Core P/E +1 SD -1 SD
Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company

Peer Valuation
Mcap Rating Adj EPS (`/sh) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%)
Company (` Bn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E
TVS Motor Co. 180.4 Sell 14.1 15.7 18.1 26.9 24.3 21 13.5 12 10.6 21.5 20.6 20.5
Bajaj Auto 757.4 Accumulate 149.7 161.9 179.0 17.6 16.3 14.7 11.5 10.7 9.1 22.9 20.4 20.3
Eicher Motors 468.4 Sell 813.9 803.8 900.1 21.4 21.0 21.2 19.0 13.6 13.3 27.6 22.3 20.8
Hero Motocorp 491.9 Reduce 169.5 161.8 174.7 13.0 14.2 14.9 13.8 9.1 9.3 27.5 24.0 23.6
Source: Company, DART

July 26, 2019 4

 Profit and Loss Account
(` Mn) FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E
Revenue 2,51,649 3,02,500 3,28,798 3,62,474
Total Expense 2,03,815 2,52,679 2,74,329 3,01,671
COGS 1,74,101 2,18,243 2,36,534 2,60,058
Employees Cost 10,691 12,554 14,001 15,795
Other expenses 19,023 21,882 23,794 25,818
EBIDTA 47,834 49,820 54,469 60,803
Depreciation 3,148 2,657 3,212 3,243
EBIT 44,686 47,163 51,257 57,560
Interest 13 45 8 9
Other Income 13,473 16,493 18,098 19,622
Exc. / E.O. items (320) 3,420 0 0
EBT 57,826 67,032 69,346 77,173
Tax 17,145 20,280 20,760 23,034
RPAT 40,681 46,752 48,586 54,138
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Profit/Loss share of associates 0 0 0 0
APAT 41,001 43,332 48,586 54,138

Balance Sheet
(` Mn) FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Reserves & Surplus 1,88,145 2,14,905 2,33,091 2,64,782
Net Worth 1,91,039 2,17,799 2,35,984 2,67,676
Total Debt 0 0 0 0
Net Deferred Tax Liability 3,234 5,427 6,093 6,374
Total Capital Employed 1,94,273 2,23,226 2,42,078 2,74,050

Applications of Funds
Net Block 19,235 17,639 20,480 23,184
CWIP 112 480 500 500
Investments 1,75,883 1,91,594 1,92,382 1,93,209
Current Assets, Loans & Advances 39,092 64,091 84,373 1,21,406
Inventories 7,428 9,615 9,909 10,924
Receivables 14,919 25,597 22,520 19,862
Cash and Bank Balances 7,780 9,228 25,117 61,543
Loans and Advances 4,578 10,422 17,097 18,849
Other Current Assets 4,387 9,229 9,729 10,229

Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions 40,048 50,578 55,657 64,250

Payables 32,443 37,867 34,573 38,019
Other Current Liabilities 7,605 12,711 21,084 26,231

Net Current Assets (956) 13,512 28,716 57,156

Total Assets 1,94,273 2,23,226 2,42,078 2,74,050
E – Estimates

July 26, 2019 5

 Important Ratios
Particulars FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E
(A) Margins (%)
Gross Profit Margin 30.8 27.9 27.8 27.5
EBIDTA Margin 19.0 16.5 15.9 15.6
EBIT Margin 17.8 15.6 14.9 14.7
Tax rate 29.6 30.3 29.9 29.9
Net Profit Margin 16.2 15.5 14.3 14.1
(B) As Percentage of Net Sales (%)
COGS 69.2 72.1 72.2 72.5
Employee 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5
Other 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.4
(C) Measure of Financial Status
Gross Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Coverage 3411.2 1052.8 5982.1 5792.4
Inventory days 11 12 11 11
Debtors days 22 31 25 20
Average Cost of Debt 1.5
Payable days 47 46 39 39
Working Capital days (1) 16 30 52
FA T/O 13.1 17.1 15.7 15.3
(D) Measures of Investment
AEPS (`) 141.7 149.8 159.0 173.2
CEPS (`) 152.6 158.9 170.1 184.4
DPS (`) 60.0 60.0 65.0 65.0
Dividend Payout (%) 42.3 40.1 40.9 37.5
BVPS (`) 660.3 752.7 806.7 902.3
RoANW (%) 22.5 22.9 20.4 20.3
RoACE (%) 22.2 20.8 19.9 19.8
RoAIC (%) 24.9 23.6 22.2 24.3
(E) Valuation Ratios
CMP (`) 2619 2619 2619 2619
P/E 18.5 17.5 16.5 15.1
Mcap (` Mn) 7,57,687 7,57,687 7,57,687 7,57,687
MCap/ Sales 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.1
EV 7,49,907 7,48,458 7,34,677 7,02,130
EV/Sales 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.0
EV/EBITDA 15.7 15.0 14.4 12.7
P/BV 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.9
Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5
(F) Growth Rate (%)
Revenue 15.6 20.2 6.1 10.5
EBITDA 8.2 4.2 2.5 8.4
EBIT 8.6 5.5 1.5 8.9
PBT 8.4 15.9 (2.0) 8.8
APAT 7.1 5.7 6.2 8.9
EPS 7.1 5.7 6.2 8.9

Cash Flow
(` Mn) FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E
CFO 57,594 35,206 50,904 61,782
CFI 76,504 1,46,661 1,52,478 1,65,956
CFF (21,170) (20,879) (22,579) (22,580)
FCFF 55,493 33,776 44,831 55,835
Opening Cash 1,38,025 1,71,436 1,88,595 2,03,164
Closing Cash 1,71,436 1,88,595 2,03,164 2,36,539
E – Estimates

July 26, 2019 6

 DART RATING MATRIX
Total Return Expectation (12 Months)
Buy > 20%
Accumulate 10 to 20%
Reduce 0 to 10%
Sell < 0%

Rating and Target Price History

Month Rating TP (`) Price (`)

(`) BJAUT Target Price
Feb-18 Reduce 3,412 3,144
3,430
May-18 Accumulate 3,265 2,796
3,210 Jul-18 Reduce 2,843 2,649
2,990 Oct-18 Sell 2,461 2,478
Jan-19 Sell 2,502 2,555
2,770
May-19 Reduce 3,260 3,040
2,550 Jun-19 Reduce 3,170 2,833
2,330
Dec-18
Apr-18
May-18

Apr-19
May-19
Jan-18

Mar-18

Jun-18

Oct-18
Aug-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Jun-19
Feb-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

*Price as on recommendation date

DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities amit@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9745

CONTACT DETAILS

Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines

Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales dineshb@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9709
Kartik Sadagopan VP - Equity Sales kartiks@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9762
Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales kapil@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9735
Ashwani Kandoi AVP – Equity Sales ashwanik@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9725
Lekha Nahar Manager – Equity Sales lekhan@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9740
Equity Trading Designation E-mail
P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading sridhar@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9728
Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading chandrakant@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9707
Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading shirisht@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9702
Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives kartikm@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9715
Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist bhavinm@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9705

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