310 • CHAPTER 8 FORECASTING
25. The following data were collected on the study of the rela-
tionship between a company’s retail sales and advertising dollars:
CASE: Bram-Wear
Lenny Bram, owner and manager of Bram-Wear, was analyzing
performance data for the men’s clothing retailer. He was con-
cerned that inventories were high for certain clothing items,
meaning that the company would potentially incur losses due to
the need for significant markdowns. At the same time, it had run
out of stock for other items early in the season. Some customers
appeared frustrated by not finding the items they were looking
for and needed to go elsewhere. Lenny knew that the problem,
though not yet serious, needed to be addressed immediately.
Background
Bram-Wear was a retailer that sold clothing catering to young,
urban, professional men. It primarily carried upscale, casual
attire, as well as a small quantity of outerwear and footwear.
Its success did not come from carrying a large product variety,
but from a very focused style with an abundance of sizes and
colors.
Bram-Wear had extremely good financial performance over
the past five years. Lenny had attributed the company’s success
to a group of excellent buyers. The buyers seemed able to accu-
rately target the style preferences of their customers and cor-
rectly forecast product quantities. One challenge was keeping up
with customer buying patterns and trends.
The Data
To determine the source of the problem, Lenny had requested
forecast and sales data by product category. Looking at the sheets
of data, it appeared that the problem was not with the specific
styles or items carried in stock; rather, the problem appeared to
(a) Obtain a linear regression line for the data.
(b) Compute a correlation coefficient and determine the
strength of the linear relationship.
(c) Using the linear regression equation, develop a forecast of
retail sales for advertising dollars of $40,000.
be with the quantities ordered by the buyers. Specifically, the
problem centered on two items: an athletic shoe called Urban
Run and the five-pocket cargo jeans.
Urban Run was a popular athletic shoe that had been carried
by Bram-Wear for the past four years. Quarterly data for the past
four years are shown in the table. The company seemed to al-
ways be out of stock of this athletic shoe. The model used by
buyers to forecast sales for this item had been seasonal exponen-
tial smoothing. Looking at the data, Lenny wondered if this was
the best method to use. It seemed to work well in the beginning,
but now he was not so sure.
The data for the five-pocket cargo jean seemed also to point
to a forecasting problem. When the product was introduced last
year, it was expected to have a large upward trend. The buyers
believed the trend would continue and used an exponential
smoothing model with trend to forecast sales. However, they
seemed to have too much inventory of this product. As with the
Urban Run athletic shoe, Lenny wondered if the right forecast-
ing model was being applied to the data. It seemed he would
have to dig out his old operations management text to solve this
problem.
 CASE: THE EMERGENCY ROOM (ER) AT NORTHWEST GENERAL (A) • 311
Case Questions
1. Is seasonal exponential smoothing the best model for
forecasting Urban Run athletic wear? Why?
2. Explain what has happened to the data for Urban Run.
What are the consequences of continuing to use seasonal expo-
nential smoothing? What model would you use? Generate a fore-
cast for the four quarters of the fourth year using your model.
Determine your forecast error and the inventory consequences.
CASE: The Emergency Room (ER) at Northwest General (A)
Jenn Kostich is the new department director for emergency ser-
vices at Northwest General Hospital. One of her responsibilities is
to ensure proper staffing in the emergency room (ER) by schedul-
ing nurses to appropriate shifts. This has historically been a prob-
lem for the ER. The former director did not base nurse schedules
on forecasts, but used the same fixed schedule week after week.
Jenn had recently received her degree in operations manage-
ment. She knew that schedules needed to be based on forecasts
3. Is exponential smoothing with trend the best model for
forecasting five-pocket cargo jeans? Why?
4. What method would you use to forecast monthly cargo
jean demand for the second year given the previous year’s
monthly demand? Explain why you selected your approach.
Generate the forecasts for each month of the second year with
your method. Determine your forecast error and the inventory
consequences.
of demand. She needed to start by analyzing historical data in
order to determine the best forecasting method to use. Jenn’s as-
sistant provided her with information on patient arrivals in the
ER by hour and day of the week for the previous month, Octo-
ber. October was considered a typical month for the ER, and
Jenn thought it was a good starting point. Jenn reviewed the in-
formation (shown in the chart) that she had requested and won-
dered where to begin.
 CASE STUDY 189

Internet Homework Problems

See our Internet home page, at www.pearsonhighered.com/render, for additional homework
problems, Problems 5-42 to 5-50.

Case Study
Forecasting Attendance at SWU Football Games
Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in
Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort
Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical
town–gown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the
small city, with more students during fall and spring than per-
manent residents.
A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the
Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in college
football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive
and long-desired number-one ranking, in 2005 SWU hired the
legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. Although the number-
one ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Satur-
day home games each year increased. Prior to Pitterno’s arrival,
attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Sea-
son ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announce-
ment of the new coach’s arrival. Stephenville and SWU were
ready to move to the big time!
The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not
NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium,
built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table
indicates attendance at each game for the past six years.
One of Pitterno’s demands upon joining SWU had been a
stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With atten-
dance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue
head-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes
in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.
SWU’s president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for
his vice president of development to forecast when the existing
stadium would “max out.” He also sought a revenue projection,
assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2011 and a 5% in-
crease each year in future prices.
Discussion Questions
1. Develop a forecasting model, justify its selection over
other techniques, and project attendance through 2012.
2. What revenues are to be expected in 2011 and 2012?
3. Discuss the school’s options.

Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2005–2010

2005 2006 2007

GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT
1 34,200 Baylor 36,100 Oklahoma 35,900 TCU
2* 39,800 Texas 40,200 Nebraska 46,500 Texas Tech
3 38,200 LSU 39,100 UCLA 43,100 Alaska
4** 26,900 Arkansas 25,300 Nevada 27,900 Arizona
5 35,100 USC 36,200 Ohio State 39,200 Rice

2008 2009 2010

GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT
1 41,900 Arkansas 42,500 Indiana 46,900 LSU
2* 46,100 Missouri 48,200 North Texas 50,100 Texas
3 43,900 Florida 44,200 Texas A&M 45,900 Prairie View A&M
4** 30,100 Miami 33,900 Southern 36,300 Montana
5 40,500 Duke 47,800 Oklahoma 49,900 Arizona State

*Homecoming games
**During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of
tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.
Source: J. Heizer and B. Render. Operations Management, 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2001, p. 126.
190 CHAPTER 5 • FORECASTING

Case Study
Forecasting Monthly Sales
For years The Glass Slipper restaurant has operated in a resort shore. They also knew that hiring the right manager would al-
community near a popular ski area of New Mexico. The restau- low James and Deena the time to begin a semi-retirement in a
rant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year, when the corner of paradise.
ski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area. To make this happen, James and Deena would have to sell
When James and Deena Weltee built The Glass Slipper, The Glass Slipper for the right price. The price of the business
they had a vision of the ultimate dining experience. As the view would be based on the value of the property and equipment, as
of surrounding mountains was breathtaking, a high priority was well as projections of future income. A forecast of sales for the
placed on having large windows and providing a spectacular next year is needed to help in the determination of the value of
view from anywhere inside the restaurant. Special attention was the restaurant. Monthly sales for each of the past 3 years are
also given to the lighting, colors, and overall ambiance, result- provided in Table 5.14.
ing in a truly magnificent experience for all who came to enjoy
gourmet dining. Since its opening, The Glass Slipper has devel- Discussion Questions
oped and maintained a reputation as one of the “must visit”
1. Prepare a graph of the data. On this same graph, plot a
places in that region of New Mexico.
12-month moving average forecast. Discuss any apparent
While James loves to ski and truly appreciates the moun-
trend and seasonal patterns.
tains and all that they have to offer, he also shares Deena’s
2. Use regression to develop a trend line that could be used
dream of retiring to a tropical paradise and enjoying a more
to forecast monthly sales for the next year. Is the slope of
relaxed lifestyle on the beach. After some careful analysis of
this line consistent with what you observed in question 1?
their financial condition, they knew that retirement was many
If not, discuss a possible explanation.
years away. Nevertheless, they were hatching a plan to bring
3. Use the multiplicative decomposition model on these
them closer to their dream. They decided to sell The Glass
data. Use this model to forecast sales for each month of
Slipper and open a bed and breakfast on a beautiful beach in
the next year. Discuss why the slope of the trend equation
Mexico. While this would mean that work was still in their
with this model is so different from that of the trend equa-
future, they could wake up in the morning to the sight of the
tion in question 2.
palm trees blowing in the wind and the waves lapping at the

TABLE 5.14 MONTH 2008 2009 2010

Monthly Revenue
(in $1,000s) January 438 444 450
February 420 425 438
March 414 423 434
April 318 331 338
May 306 318 331
June 240 245 254
July 240 255 264
August 216 223 231
September 198 210 224
October 225 233 243
November 270 278 289
December 315 322 335

Internet Case Study

See our Internet home page, at www.pearsonhighered.com/render, for the additional case study
on Akron Zoological Park. This case involves forecasting attendance at Akron’s zoo.
 APPENDIX 5.1 FORECASTING WITH QM FOR WINDOWS 191

Bibliography
Berenson, Mark L., David M. Levine, and Timothy C. Kriehbiel. Business
Statistics: Concepts and Applications, 10th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ:
Prentice Hall, 2006.
Billah, Baki, Maxwell L. King Ralph D. Snyder, and Anne B. Koehler. “Expo-
nential Smoothing Model Selection for Forecasting,” International Jour-
nal of Forecasting 22, 2, (April–June 2006): 239–247.
Black, Ken. Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making, 6th ed.
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2009.
Diebold, F. X. Elements of Forecasting, 2nd ed. Cincinnati: South-Western
College Publishing, 2001.
Gardner, Everette Jr. “Exponential Smoothing: The State of the Art—Part II,”
International Journal of Forecasting 22, 4 (October 2006): 637–666.
Granger, Clive W., and J. M. Hashem Pesaran. “Economic and Statistical
Measures of Forecast Accuracy,” Journal of Forecasting, 19, 7 (Decem-
ber 2000): 537–560.
Hanke, J. E., and D. W. Wichern. Business Forecasting, 9th ed. Upper Saddle
River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2009.
Heizer, J., and B. Render. Operations Management, 9th ed. Upper Saddle
River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2008.
Hyndman, Rob J. “The Interaction Between Trend and Seasonality,”
International Journal of Forecasting 20, 4 (October–December 2004):
561–563.
Hyndman, Rob J., and Anne B. Koehler. “Another Look at Measures of Fore-
cast Accuracy,” International Journal of Forecasting 22, 4 (October
2006): 679–688.
Li, X. “An Intelligent Business Forecaster for Strategic Business Planning,”
Journal of Forecasting 18, 3 (May 1999): 181–205.
Meade, Nigel. “Evidence for the Selection of Forecasting Methods,” Journal
of Forecasting 19, 6 (November 2000): 515–535.
Snyder, Ralph D., and Roland G. Shami. “Exponential Smoothing of Seasonal
Data: A Comparison,” Journal of Forecasting 20, 3 (April 2001):
197–202.
Yurkiewicz, J. “Forecasting Software Survey,” OR/MS Today 35, 3 (August
2008): 54–63.

Appendix 5.1 Forecasting with QM for Windows

In this section, we look at our other forecasting software package, QM for Windows. QM for
Windows can project moving averages (both simple and weighted), do simple and trend-
adjusted exponential smoothing, handle least squares trend projection, solve regression prob-
lems, and use the decomposition method.
To develop forecasts in QM for Windows, select Module on the toolbar and select Forecasting.
Then either click the new document icon or click File—New—Time Series Analysis to enter a new
time series problem. Specify the number of past observations and enter a title, if desired.
To illustrate QM for Windows, we will use the Port of Baltimore data from Table 5.5. The
number of past observations was eight in that example. When you enter those data, the screen
shown in Program 5.8A opens and allows for data input. Once the data is entered, click the

PROGRAM 5.8A
QM for Windows Click the arrow in the Method window to select the desired methods.
Forecasting Methods

Enter the data.

You can change these names by typing over them.

CASE HIGHLINE FINANCIAL SERVICES, LTD.
Highline Financial Services provides three categories of service to or promotion, and competition doesn’t change, predict demand
its clients. Managing partner Freddie Mack is getting ready to pre- for the services the company offers for the next four quarters.
pare financial and personnel hiring (or layoff) plans for the coming Note that there are not enough data to develop seasonal rela-
year. He is a bit perplexed by the following printout he obtained, tives. Nonetheless, you should be able to make reasonably good,
which seems to show oscillating demand for the three categories approximate intuitive estimates of demand. What general obser-
of services over the past eight quarters: vations can you make regarding demand? Should Freddie have
any concerns? Explain.
    Service
Year Quarter A B C     Service
1 1  60 95 93 Year Quarter A B C
  2  45 85 90 2 1 72 85 102
  3 100 92 110   2 51 75   75
  4  75 65 90   3 112 85  110

Examine the demand that this company has experienced   4 85 50 100

for the three categories of service it offers over the preceding
two years. Assuming nothing changes in terms of advertising

Acar, Yavuc, and Everette S. Gardner, Jr. “Forecasting
Method Selection in a Global Supply Chain.” Inter-
national Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 4 (October–
December 2012), 842–48.
Bonomo, Charles. “Forecasting from the Center of the
Supply Chain.” Journal of Business Forecasting
Methods and Systems 22, no. 1 (Spring 2003), p. 3.
Byrne, Robert F. “Forecasting Performance for North
American Consumer Products.” Journal of Business
Forecasting 31, no. 3 (Fall 2012), p. 12.
Hanke, John, and Dean Wichern. Business Forecast-
ing, 9th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson, 2009. SELECTED
Hopp, Wallace J., and Mark I. Spearman. Factory BIBLIOGRAPHY AND
­Physics, 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008. FURTHER READINGS
Wilson, J. Holton, Barry Keating, and John Galt Solu-
tions. Business Forecasting with ForecastX, 6th ed.
New York: McGraw-Hill, 2009.

135
E1C12.qxd 8/2/10 1:03 PM Page 549
a. Using Excel, develop the multiple regression equation
for these data.
b. What is the coefficient of determination for this
regression equation? Do you think the superintendent
is correct in his beliefs?
c. Montgomery County has an average SOL score of 74
with an average teacher’s salary of $27,500 and an
average teacher tenure of 7.8 years. The superintendent
CASE PROBLEM 12.1
Forecasting at State University
During the past few years the legislature has severely re-
duced funding for State University. In reaction, the ad-
ministration at State has significantly raised tuition each
year for the past five years. A bargain five years ago,
State is now considered an expensive state-supported
university. Some parents and students now question the
value of a State education, and applications for admission
have declined. Since a portion of state educational fund-
ing is based on a formula tied to enrollments, State has
maintained its enrollment levels by going deeper into its
applicant pool and accepting less qualified students.
On top of these problems, an increase in the college-
age population is expected in this decade. Key members
of the state legislature have told the university admini-
stration that State will be expected to absorb additional
students during this decade. However, because of the
CASE PROBLEM 12.2
The University Bookstore Student Computer Purchase
Program
The University Bookstore is owned and operated by State
University through an independent corporation with its
own board of directors. The bookstore has three locations
on or near the State University campus. It stocks a range
of items, including textbooks, trade books, logo apparel,
drawing and educational supplies, and computers and re-
lated products such as printers, modems, and software.
The bookstore has a program to sell personal computers
to incoming freshmen and other students at a substantial
educational discount partly passed on from computer
manufacturers. This means that the bookstore just cov-
ers computer costs with a very small profit margin
remaining.
Each summer all incoming freshmen and their par-
ents come to the State campus for a three-day ori-
entation program. The students come in groups of 100
Chapter 12 • Forecasting 549
has proposed to the school board a salary increase
that would raise the average salary to $30,000 and a
benefits program with a goal of increasing the average
tenure to nine years. He has suggested that if the board
passes his proposals the average SOL score will
increase to 80. Is he correct according to the forecasting
model?
economic outlook and the budget situation, State should
not expect any funding increases for additional facili-
ties, classrooms, dormitory rooms, or faculty. The univer-
sity already has a classroom deficit in excess of 25%,
and class sizes are above the average of their peer
institutions.
The president of the university, Tanisha Lindsey, estab-
lished several task forces consisting of faculty and admin-
istrators to address these problems. These groups made a
number of recommendations, including the implementa-
tion of total quality management (TQM) practices and more
in-depth, focused planning.
Discuss in general terms how forecasting might be
used for planning to address these specific problems and
the role of forecasting in initiating a TQM approach. In-
clude in your discussion the types of forecasting methods
that might be used.
throughout the summer. During their visit the students
and their parents are given details about the book-
store’s computer purchase program. Some students
place their computer orders for the fall semester at this
time, while others wait until later in the summer. The
bookstore also receives orders from returning students
throughout the summer. This program presents a chal-
lenging supply chain management problem for the
bookstore.
Orders come in throughout the summer, many only a
few weeks before school starts in the fall, and the com-
puter suppliers require at least six weeks for delivery.
Thus, the bookstore must forecast computer demand to
build up inventory to meet student demand in the fall. The
student computer program and the forecast of computer
demand have repercussions all along the bookstore supply
chain. The bookstore has a warehouse near campus where
it must store all computers since it has no storage space at
(Continued)
E1C12.qxd 8/2/10 1:03 PM Page 550
550 Part 2 • Supply Chain Management
its retail locations. Ordering too many computers not only
ties up the bookstore’s cash reserves, but also takes up
limited storage space and limits inventories for other
bookstore products during the bookstore’s busiest sales
period. Since the bookstore has such a low profit margin
on computers, its bottom line depends on these other
products. As competition for good students has increased,
the university has become very quality-conscious and in-
sists that all university facilities provide exemplary student
service, which for the bookstore means meeting all stu-
dent demands for computers when the fall semester
starts. The number of computers ordered also affects
the number of temporary warehouse and bookstore work-
ers that must be hired for handling and assisting with
PC installations. The number of truck trips from the
warehouse to the bookstore each day of fall registration is
also affected by computer sales.
The bookstore student computer purchase program
has been in place for 14 years. Although the student pop-
ulation has remained stable during this period, computer
CASE PROBLEM 12.3
Cascades Swim Club
The Cascades Swim Club has 300 stockholders, each
holding one share of stock in the club. A share of club
stock allows the shareholder’s family to use the club’s
heated outdoor pool during the summer upon payment of
annual membership dues of $175. The club has not is-
sued any stock in years, and only a few of the existing
shares come up for sale each year. The board of directors
administers the sale of all stock. When a shareholder
wants to sell, he or she turns the stock into the board,
which sells it to the person at the top of the waiting list.
For the past few years, the length of the waiting list has
remained relatively steady at approximately 20 names.
However, during the past winter two events occurred
that have suddenly increased the demand for shares in
the club. The winter was especially severe, and subzero
weather and heavy ice storms caused both the town and
the county pools to buckle and crack. The problems were
not discovered until maintenance crews began to prepare
the pools for the summer, and repairs cannot be com-
pleted until the fall. Also during the winter, the manager
of the local country club had an argument with her board
of directors and one night burned down the clubhouse.
Although the pool itself was not damaged, the dressing
room facilities, showers, and snack bar were destroyed.
As a result of these two events, the Cascades Swim Club
was inundated with applications to purchase shares. The
sales have been somewhat volatile. Following is the his-
torical sales data for computers during the first month of
fall registration:
Year Computers Sold Year Computers Sold
1 518 8 792
2 651 9 877
3 708 10 693
4 921 11 841
5 775 12 1009
6 810 13 902
7 856 14 1103
Develop an appropriate forecast model for bookstore
management to use to forecast computer demand for the
next fall semester and indicate how accurate it appears
to be. What other forecasts might be useful to the book-
store in managing its supply chain?
waiting list suddenly grew to 250 people as the summer
approached.
The board of directors of the swim club had refrained
from issuing new shares in the past because there never
was a very great demand, and the demand that did exist
was usually absorbed within a year by stock turnover. In
addition, the board has a real concern about overcrowd-
ing. It seemed like the present membership was about
right, and there were very few complaints about over-
crowding, except on holidays such as Memorial Day and
the Fourth of July. However, at a recent board meeting a
number of new applicants had attended and asked the
board to issue new shares. In addition, a number of cur-
rent shareholders suggested that this might be an oppor-
tunity for the club to raise some capital for needed
repairs and to improve some of the existing facilities. This
was tempting to the board. Although it had set the share
price at $500 in the past, the board could set it at a much
higher level now. In addition, an increase in attendance
could create a need for more lifeguards.
Before the board of directors could make a decision on
whether to sell more shares and, if so, how many, the
board members felt they needed more information.
Specifically, they would like a forecast of the average
number of people (family members, guests, etc.) who
might attend the pool each day during the summer with
the current number of shares.
E1C12.qxd 8/2/10 1:03 PM Page 551

Chapter 12 • Forecasting 551

The board of directors has the following daily atten- M-198 W-356 F-284 Su-399 T-239 Th-259
dance records for June through August from the previous T-310 Th-322 Sa-417 M-275 W-274 F-232
summer; it thinks the figures would provide accurate W-347 F-419 Su-474 T-241 Th-205 Sa-317
estimates for the upcoming summer. Th-393 Sa-516 M-194 W-190 F-361 Su-369
F-421 Su-478 T-207 Th-243 Sa-411 M-361
M-139 W-380 F-193 Su-399 T-177 Th-238 Sa-595 M-303 W-215 F-277 Su-419
T-273 Th-367 Sa-378 M-197 W-161 F-224 Su-497 T-223 Th-304 Sa-241 M-258
W-172 F-359 Su-461 T-273 Th-308 Sa-368 M-341 W-315 F-331 Su-384 T-130
Th-275 Sa-463 M-242 W-213 F-256 Su-541 T-291 Th-258 Sa-407 M-246 W-195
F-337 Su-578 T-177 Th-303 Sa-391 M-235
Sa-402 M-287 W-245 F-262 Su-400 T-218 Develop a forecasting model to forecast daily demand
Su-487 T-247 Th-390 Sa-447 M-224 W-271 during the summer.

CASE PROBLEM 12.4

Forecasting Passenger Arrivals at the Gotham

International Airport
Since the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the ensuing mea-
sures by the federal Transportation Security Administra-
tion (TSA) to increase airline security, airports have faced
the problem of long waiting lines and waiting times at secu-
rity gates. One of the key components of any effort by the
TSA to operationally improve airport security procedures
while reducing passenger waiting times and inconvenience
is forecasting passenger arrivals at security checkpoints in
order to determine how many security checkpoints and
staff are needed. At the Gotham International Airport, TSA
operations analysts would like to forecast passenger ar-
rivals for next July, the airport's busiest travel month of the
year, for the purpose of determining how many security
checkpoints they should staff during the month in order
that waiting lines and times will not be excessively long.
Demand for airline travel has generally been increasing
during the past three years. There are two main con-
courses at Gotham International, East and West, each serv-
ing different airlines. The following table shows passenger
arrivals at the West concourse for 10 days (selected ran-
domly) in two-hour segments from 4:00 A.M. to 10:00 P.M. for
the month of July for the past three years.

Day 4–6 A.M. 6–8 A.M. 8–10 A.M. 10–noon noon–2 P.M. 2–4 P.M. 4–6 P.M. 6–8 P.M. 8–10 P.M.
1 2400 2700 3200 1400 1700 1800 1600 800 200
2 1900 2500 3100 1600 1800 2000 1800 900 300
3 2300 3100 2500 1500 1500 1800 1900 1100 200
4 2200 3200 3100 2200 1900 2400 2100 1200 400
Year 1 5 2400 3300 3400 1700 2200 2100 2000 1000 600
6 2600 2800 3500 1500 1700 1900 1500 1100 300
7 1900 2800 3100 1200 1500 2000 1400 900 400
8 2000 2700 2500 1500 2000 2300 1900 1000 200
9 2400 3200 3600 1600 2100 2500 1800 1400 200
10 2600 3300 3100 200 2500 2600 2400 1100 400
11 3100 3900 4100 2200 2600 2300 2500 1100 300
12 2800 3400 3900 1900 2100 2500 2000 1200 300
13 2700 3800 4300 2100 2400 2400 2400 1200 400
14 2400 3500 4100 2400 3000 3200 2600 1200 700
Year 2 15 3300 3700 4000 2600 2600 2700 2900 1000 300
16 3500 4000 3800 2300 2700 3100 3000 900 200
17 2900 4100 3900 2400 3000 3200 2500 1100 500
18 3400 3800 4200 2000 2500 3000 2200 1000 300
E1C12.qxd 8/2/10 1:03 PM Page 552

552 Part 2 • Supply Chain Management

Day 4–6 A.M. 6–8 A.M. 8–10 A.M. 10–noon noon–2 P.M. 2–4 P.M. 4–6 P.M. 6–8 P.M. 8–10 P.M.
19 3600 3600 4000 2300 2600 2800 2600 1200 200
20 3700 3700 4000 2200 2600 2700 2400 1200 200
21 4400 4400 4500 2600 3300 3400 3000 1200 400
22 4200 4500 4300 2500 3400 3600 3100 1400 300
23 4500 4500 4700 2700 3400 3500 2900 1200 300
24 4600 4600 4600 2500 3200 3500 2800 1300 300
Year 3 25 4500 4300 4400 2900 3300 3300 3300 1500 400
26 4200 4300 4500 3000 4000 3400 3000 1500 600
27 4500 4500 5100 3300 4000 3700 3100 1200 300
28 4300 4200 4300 2800 3500 4000 3300 1100 400
29 4900 4100 4200 3100 3600 3900 3400 1400 500
30 4700 4500 4100 3000 4000 3700 3400 1200 500

Develop a forecast for daily passenger arrivals at the of year 4. Discuss the various forecast model variations
West concourse at Gotham for each time period for July that might be used to develop this forecast.

REFERENCES

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