Youth Voices on Brexit – Fact Sheet

The Referendum
On June 23, 2016, the UK voted in a public referendum to leave the European Union. The
margin was very small, 51.9 percent voted to leave, and 48.1 voted to remain.
In England, a majority of 53.2% voted to leave. In Wales, a majority of 51.7% voted to leave.
However, both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. You can see from the
infographic that a majority of 55.8% of NI voted to remain, while 62% voted to remain in
Scotland.
In order to be able to leave, there is a European legal requirement that the Prime Minister
must trigger Article 50 by notifying the EU of their intent to leave the Union. And, shortly
after the vote, on March 29, 2017 the newly appointed Prime Minister, Theresa May did this
by writing a letter to Donald Tusk, who is the European Council’s president. The terms of
Article 50 allow the government two years to negotiate an exit deal, but we still do not have
one in place.
How did we get here?
On January 23, 2013, David Cameron promised that if he was re-elected as Prime Minister,
there would be a referendum on membership of the EU.
The Conservatives were re-elected in 2015, and David Cameron fulfilled his promise by
holding a referendum on 23 June 2016.
The day after the referendum vote, David Cameron (who advocated for the UK to remain in
the EU) stepped down as Prime Minister.
On 13 July 2016, Theresa May became Prime Minister in his place. She called an election in
2017, with the hopes of strengthening her party’s position by obtaining a majority. But the
election resulted in a hung parliament after the Conservative party lost 13 of their seats.
Theresa May was then forced to enter into a confidence and supply agreement with the
DUP – who has maintained a pro-Leave stance. Theresa May negotiated a Withdrawal
Agreement with the EU, but it was voted down twice in Parliament.
In June of this year, she bowed to the pressure from her own party and resigned. In July,
Boris Johnson was elected leader of the Conservative Party and became Prime Minister of
the UK. Things have become increasingly complicated since then, but we won’t get into all
the details.
We can trace the origins of Brexit even further back though.
Relationship Status: It’s always been complicated
The UK has always had a complicated relationship with the EU. A significant portion of the
population has been resistant or opposed to UK membership within European institutions.
When the European Economic Community (EEC) was formed in 1957 – the predecessor to
the EU - the UK initially declined to join. Although it later changed its mind, the UK didn’t
officially join until 1973.
The government’s decision to join was reaffirmed in 1975 with a referendum. Support was
relatively high at that time with a majority of 67.2% voting for the UK to remain part of the
EEC.
Despite this high level of support, segments of both the Labour and Conservative parties
have remained either ambivalent or hostile to European integration.
Also, explicitly anti-EU parties – such as UKIP – formed in the early 1990s in response to the
Maastricht Treaty, which formalised the transition from the EEC to the EU.
This political uncertainty and scepticism towards the EU has also been reflected in the way
in which the UK has negotiated its membership within the EU. The UK has refused to be part
of many elements of the EU - such as the euro, immigration measures, and a number of
areas for justice and security cooperation.
So you can see from these brief examples, that throughout the existence of the EEC and the
EU, there have always been feelings of resistance and reluctance within the UK to fully
embrace this relationship.
Why Did Brexit Happen?
There is not one simple reason – there are a number of interconnected and complex
reasons for this.
Economics: Opponents of the EU argued that it is a dysfunctional economic entity. They said
that the EU failed to addressed economic problems that had remained since the recession in
2007/2008.
Some also believed that the UK would be able to negotiate better trade agreements with
non-EU countries, if it was outside the EU.
Sovereignty: The leave campaign used a very effective message of ‘taking back control’ –
taking control away from multinational institutions (like the EU) and putting it back in the
hands of nation states.
There is a related argument that this can be linked with the broader rise in nationalism
across the world. The election of Donal Trump as President of the US is often used as
another example of this.
Immigration: Studies have shown that negative feelings towards migrants was a major
factor in people’s decision to vote to leave. The Leave Campaign used images of the refugee
crisis and this language of ‘taking back control’ of our borders in its public campaigns.
Health Care: The Leave Campaign’s promise of putting the money currently paid to the EU
(which they said was £350 million) into the NHS instead was very effective. Research on this
topic has shown that this would not be possible – that this is not how much money the UK
puts into the EU, it doesn’t include the money that comes from the EU to fund the NHS, and
it also doesn’t account for all the other ways that the money would need to be spent.
Possible Future Scenarios
No deal: Under the leadership of Boris Johnson, if that continues, the likelihood of the UK
leaving the EU without a deal. Basically what this would mean is that all of European law
would cease to apply in the UK and it would be immediately removed from most EU
institutions. It would still be able to negotiate a future relationship with the EU, but it would
be doing this completely outside of the organisation.
In a no deal scenario, there will be some kind of border put up on the island of Ireland.
Withdrawal Agreement: the UK is still able to leave the EU under the deal that was
negotiated by Theresa May. This would involve a transition period where the UK would have
two years to continue to apply all EU law and to remain a member of EU institutions. This
would provide the government with time to negotiate the relationship it wants.
The most controversial aspect of the Withdrawal Agreement is the ‘backstop’. Basically, in
order to avoid creating a border in Ireland, the backstop would require the whole of the UK
to make sure that its laws and regulations were in line with the EU Single Market and
Customs Union. This would basically mean that the UK would be following the rules of the
EU but would not have any control to influence or make these rules.
The backstop is supposed to be a ‘back up’ option. Basically this means that the problem of
the Irish border is supposed to be solved though with the future negotiations (meaning that
they wouldn’t have to rely on the backstop because they would figure this out with some
kind of agreement, for example, a free trade agreement between the UK and EU).
The UK could also potentially negotiate a different deal, but the time for doing this is very
limited and there doesn’t appear to be any serious proposals on what this could entail.
Renege on Article 50: The UK can still legally ‘untrigger’ Article 50 and decide instead to
continue to be a member of the EU. The EU has said that it would welcome the UK to
continue to be a member under the same terms that it currently enjoys. The public
however, might have a problem with this as it goes against the referendum vote.
2nd Referendum: The other option would be for the government to hold a second
referendum. One of the problems with the first referendum is that we didn’t really
understand what would happen if we left – what the consequences would be. Academics
didn’t know, politicians didn’t know, and the general public didn’t know. So there would be
an opportunity for people to have all of the current research findings and make a more
informed decision. That said, at the moment, there doesn’t appear to be the political will to
do this.
Brexit Issues
Research on Brexit has raised a vast number of issues that need to be addressed before the
UK leaves the EU. Some of these are highlighted below:
Health:
There are concerns over the availability of medicines after Brexit because the UK currently
doesn’t manufacture these (they are imported from other European countries). For
example, issues have been raised about the availability of insulin as well as a number of
cancer treatments.
There are also serious concerns about the impact on staffing the health service. A very large
number of doctors and nurses come from European countries and their status here is not
guaranteed after Brexit.
A further issue is uncertainty surrounding UK citizens being able to continue accessing
health care in EU countries, including across the border. Part of this complication is whether
or not patient’s data will be able to be shared. This is currently possible because EU law
ensures that each EU Member State has sufficient data protection laws in place. But, this
might change in the future if the UK decides to change its domestic data protection law.
Education:
As an EU Member States, UK citizens are able to attend universities in other EU countries
and avail of relatively low tuition rates. The future of this arrangement has been questioned
as UK citizens will likely not have access to these reduced rates. Also, it is likely that students
attending university in the UK will no longer have access to Erasmus exchange programmes
with European universities.
There are also concerns about the future ability of young people to attend primary and
secondary across the border on the island of Ireland. There are related concerns about the
ability of teachers to be able to teaching in schools across the border.
Peace:
Serious concerns about the future of the peace process in NI have been raised by both
academics and the PSNI. If any infrastructure appears on the border, dissident republican
groups have stated that they will remove it with any means necessary. There are concerns
that this will create a vicious cycle that will threaten the peace process. (For example, if
infrastructure is destroyed, the police may have to begin heavily policing these areas to
protect the infrastructure, which may mean that they will be easier targets for dissident
groups).
Peace funding has been essential for development and community building in NI. The EU
provides this money through its peace funding programmes. The EU has guaranteed that it
will continue the funding in the immediate post-Brexit future, but it is unlikely to continue
indefinitely.
Brexit has generally been very divisive. It has had a negative impact generally on the peace
process and on community cohesion.
Policing and Security:
EU law and measures have been an essential part of facilitating police cooperation on the
island of Ireland. It has also helped to create new levels of human rights protections and
oversight mechanisms.
In the increasingly globalised world, crime has also become an increasingly cross-border
issue. Part of tackling this has been creating regional and international police mechanisms to
facilitate policing cooperation across borders. Another element of this has been the ability
to share data. European tools have been key parts of both of these and the UK stands to
lose access to them after Brexit.
Food:
There is a very high likelihood of fresh food shortages as a lot of the fruits and vegetables
are imported from European countries – particularly in a no deal Brexit scenario. Relatedly,
food prices will likely increase across a range of food products – both domestically produced
and imported.
In the longterm, there are also likely to be food related issues in NI. Currently, the EU
provides payments to NI farmers that makes farming a viable career option. If fewer people
are able to farm, locally sources food will become more difficult to get.
Economy:
Brexit has already had a serious impact on the value of the British Pound. The value of the
Pound has dramatically decreased since the UK voted to leave the EU.
There are also estimates completed by economists that predict an economic decline across
the UK. NI stands to be hardest hit by this decline. The most generous estimates are that the
economy in NI will decrease by 3%. Others have predicted that the decline will be similar to
what happened during the 2007/8 recession.
The UK leaving the EU has also mean that a number of businesses have left the UK and
relocated to European countries. This will also result in job losses across the country.
What’s Next?
Much of the research has shown that there are a number of reasons to be concerned about
Brexit. While it is difficult to paint a rosy picture, there are some ways in which the UK could
benefit from Brexit, if there was political will to do so.
For example, the UK could build in more human rights protections and environmental
standards protections into its future arrangements with the EU than currently exist now.
Brexit has also caused a lot of people to become more involved in politics. People are taking
an interest and trying to influence the positions being taken by the government.