PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Terms to remember: see LMS account

Completion time per activity
EF = ES + t LS = LF – t
Activity ES EF EF-earliest start time ES – earliest finish time
LS – latest start time LF-latest finish time
t LS LF t-activity time

EXAMPLE: The AUS Company is planning to develop a

new chemical process. They have identified the
following activities:
(a) Develop a project network and determine the
expected project completion time.
(b) What is the probability that project completion
time will meet the 20-week deadline?

Solution:
Step 1: Compute for the expected time and variances.
Show the summary table on expected times and the variance of the activities.
Expected times:
10+4(15)+26
𝑡𝐴 = = 16 𝑡𝐵 = 11 𝑡𝑐 = 5 𝑡𝐷 = 12 𝑡𝐸 = 2 𝑡𝐹 = 4 𝑡𝐺 = 2 𝑡𝐻 = 2 𝑡𝐼 = 4 𝑡𝐽 = 2
6
Variances:
26−10 2
𝛿𝐴2 = ( ) = 7.13 𝛿𝐵2 = 2.78 𝛿𝐶2 = 0.11 𝛿𝐷2 = 0.44 𝛿𝐸2 = 0.11 𝛿𝐹2 = 2.78 𝛿𝐺2 = 0.11 𝛿𝐻2 = 0.11 𝛿𝐼2 = 0.11 𝛿𝐽2 = 0.11
6
Summary table on expected times and variances for AUS company
Step 2: Construct the network diagram

Step3: Determine the completion time per activity.

Activity
time
Step 4: Determine the earliest start time and earliest finish time using forward pass and formula EF = ES + t

A 0 16+0 =16
Example:
16
For C,E,F, G, H, I,J select
the highest EF in its
corresponding
predecessor
Example:
C, select between A&B
C 16 16+5 = 21
5
Step 5: Develop the latest finish time and latest start time using backward pass and formula LS = LF – t
*Start with the last activity.
Copy EF value to LF in the
last activity:
J 25 EF = 27
2 LS = LF – t =25 LF = 27
Solve for LS

* Work backwards, notice

that 25 were allocated to
activity H and I as the latest
finish
*Observe that activities H and I have 23 and 21 weeks respectively. Select the least value for activity. This will serve as the latest
finish time of Activity F. Continue to solve for the latest finish time and latest start time of the remaining activities.

Step 6:Compute for the slack of all activities using the formula Slack = LS – ES =LF – EF. Zero slack means critical path

Based on the table, the critical path is

A → C → G → H → J with 27 weeks to finish the
project.

E(t) = TA + TC + TG + TH + TJ = 16+5+2+2+2=27

(b) Solution for the probability that the project will be done given a 30-week deadline.
*Add the variance of the activities involved in the critical path answer: = 0.13+ 0.11 + 0.11 + 0.11 + 0.11 = 7.57
𝛿 = √𝛿 2 = √7.57 = 2.75
Solve for the z-test value:
T−E(t) 30−27
𝑧= 𝛿
= 2.73
= 1.09

P(X<30) = P(z< 1.09) = P(0 < z < 1.09) = 0.3641

Using z = 1.09 and the z-table, the probability of the project meeting 30 weeks deadline is 0.8641 0r 86.41%

Reference: Quantitative methods by Sirug