What are the Prospects of

Achieving SDGs in Bangladesh?

Exploring a Select Set of Indicators under Business as Usual Scenario
Presented at
Research-Policy Meeting on
Interpreting SDGs for South Asia: In Search of a Regional Framework

Fahmida Khatun
Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)

Syed Yusuf Saadat

Research Associate, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)

Dhaka: 20 November 2018

 CONTENTS

1. Introduction
1.1 Context
1.2 Use of Forecasting Exercise
1.3 Choice of Indicators
1.4 Limitations of the Study
2. Past Progress of SDG Related Indictors in Bangladesh
3. Methodology for Forecasting
4. Prospects of SDG Implementation in Bangladesh
5. Conclusions and Recommendations

2
1. Introduction
1.1 Context

• Bangladesh is one of the 47 countries that has

presented its Voluntary National Review
(VNR) on SDGs to the High Level Political
Forum (HLPF).
• Such reviews, however, do not contain any
future projections of SDG implementation in
the country.
• This research aims to fill in this knowledge
gap by tracking the past performance and
forecasting the future potential of SDG
implementation in the context of Bangladesh.

4
1.2 Use of Forecasting Exercise

• Forecasting and planning go hand-in-hand in

the effective and efficient attainment of goals.
• By predicting the trajectory of selected
indicators, we can better understand the
actions required to attain the SDGs and plan
accordingly.
• The results of this study will guide policy-
making so that SDGs that are currently off-
track may be identified and subsequently
steered in the right direction.

5
1.3 Choice of Indicators

• The basis of choosing the indicators in

this study are as follows:
(i) they were easily expressed in numbers;
(ii) they conveyed the essence of the goal
which they represented; and
(iii) data were readily available for those
indicators.
• Based on these three criteria, one
indicator was chosen to reflect the
status of each SDG.

6
1.4 Limitations of the Study

• Forecast is only valid for the indicator

concerned and does not represent the state of
other targets in the particular SDG
• It is assumed that past trends will continue in
the future
• Unforeseen events are not accounted for

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's

about the future."
- Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

7
2. Past Progress of SDG related
indicators in Bangladesh
SDG 1: End Poverty

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 1.1 Poverty Headcount Ratio at National Poverty Line
(% of population living below national poverty line)
SDG 1.1: Poverty headcount 60
ratio at national poverty line
48.9
50
• In 2000, almost half of the
population (48.9%) were 40
40

below the national poverty 31.5

Per cent
line 30 24.3
• In 2015, the share of 20
population below the
national poverty line fell to 10
24.3%
0
• However, national trends fail 1995 2005 2015
to account for regional Year
differences sdg1.1 Linear (sdg1.1)
Source: World Bank, Global Poverty Working Group.

9
SDG 2: End Hunger

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 2.1 Prevalence of Undernourishment

(3-Year Average) (% of Population)
SDG 2.1: Prevalence of 25
undernourishment
• Incidence of hunger fell 20
from 20.8% in 2000 to
16.3% in 2006 15

Per cent
• Between 2007 and 2012,
incidence of hunger 10
increased
• 15.2% of the population 5

were undernourished in
2016 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Source: FAO estimate

10
SDG 3: Ensure Healthy Lives

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 3.1 Maternal Deaths (Per 100,000 Births)

700
SDG 3.1: Maternal deaths
600
• Maternal deaths have been

(per 100,000 births)

Maternal deaths
500
falling continuously since
400
1986
300
• Only 2001 and 2006 are
exceptional years when 200
maternal deaths rose 100

• Rate of decline has been 0

1998
1986
1989
1992
1995

2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
more gradual in recent
years Year
Source: Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics, BBS

11
SDG 4: Ensure Quality Education

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 4.1 Lower Secondary Completion Rate,
Both Sexes (%)
SDG 4.1: Lower secondary 100.0
completion rate 90.0
• Lower secondary completion 80.0
rates rose from 48.8% in 70.0
1998 to 58.9% in 2003
60.0

Per cent
• 76.5% of the target 50.0
population had completed 40.0
lower secondary education in
2016 30.0
20.0
• However, completion rates do
10.0
not account for the quality of
education 0.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics

12
SDG 5: Achieve Gender Equality

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 5.3 Women Who Were First Married By Age 18 (% of
Women Ages 20-24)
SDG 5.3 Women Who Were 100
First Married By Age 18 90

• 73.3% of women aged 20- 80

24 were married by age 18 70
in 1994 60

Per cent
• Overall, early marriage 50
shows declining trend but 40
the incidence is still 30
alarmingly high 20

• 58.6% of women aged 20- 10

24 were married by age 18 0
in 2014 1990 2000
Year
2010 2020

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank

13
SDG 6: Ensure Sanitation for All

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 6.2 People Using At Least Basic Sanitation Services
(% of Population)
SDG 6.2 People Using At Least 100.0
Basic Sanitation Services 90.0
• Access to basic sanitation has 80.0
nearly doubled in the last 15 70.0
years 60.0

Per cent
• 46.9% of the population had 50.0
access to basic sanitation in 40.0
2015, compared to 25.3% in 30.0
2000 20.0
• However, more than half of 10.0
the population still do not 0.0
have access to basic

2005

2014
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

2015
sanitation Year
Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply,
Sanitation and Hygiene
14
SDG 7: Ensure Access to Energy

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity (% of Population)

100.0
SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity 90.0
• Access to electricity has 80.0
been increasing almost 70.0
every year since 1990 60.0

Per cent
• More than average 50.0

increases were observed in 40.0

2006 and 2015 30.0

20.0
• However, affordability of 10.0
electricity has been 0.0
compromised with higher
1992

2010
1990

1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

2012
2014
2016
tariffs
Year

Source: World Bank, Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) database

15
SDG 8: Promote Economic Growth

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate (in %)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)

SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate 10.00

9.00
• Economic growth in 8.00
Bangladesh has been rapid 7.00
and resilient 6.00

Per cent
5.00
• GDP has been growing at
4.00
more than 6% since 2011 3.00
• However, economic growth 2.00
has failed to create decent 1.00

jobs - especially for the 0.00 1997

2007

2017
1999
2001
2003
2005

2009
2011
2013
2015
large population of youth
Year
Source: GDP of Bangladesh, BBS

16
SDG 9: Promote Industrialisation

Target & indicator chosen:
SDG 9.2 Share Of
Manufacturing in GDP
• Rate of industrialisation
Figure: SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing in GDP (%)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
25.00
20.00

picked up pace from 2005

onwards 15.00

Per cent
• Share of manufacturing in 10.00
GDP increased from 14.4%
in 1996 to 21% in 2016 5.00
• Such structural change of
the economy presents a 0.00
challenge for the labour
2000

2010
1996
1998

2002
2004
2006
2008

2012
2014
2016
2018
market Year
Source: GDP of Bangladesh, BBS

17
SDG 10: Reduce Inequality

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 10.1 Income Share of Bottom 40 Per Cent
(% of National Income)
SDG 10.1 Income Share of 25
Bottom 40 Per Cent
• Income share of the 20
poorest 40% of the
population has been 15

Per cent
declining
• Declining income shares 10
for the poor imply rising
income shares for the rich 5
• If poor get poorer, then
overall inequality 0
increases 1990 2000
Year
2010 2020

Source: Household Income and Expenditure Surveys, BBS

18
SDG 11: Make Cities Sustainable

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 11.1 Population Living In Slums
(% of Urban Population)
SDG 11.1 Population Living 100
In Slums 90

• Urban slum population has 80

declined significantly 70

• 55.1% of the urban 60

Per cent
population lived in slums 50

in 2014, compared to 40
87.3% in 1990 30

• Share of urban population 20

living in slums is still 10

unacceptably high 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Source: UN HABITAT

19
SDG 12: Sustainable Consumption
& Production
Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 12.2 Total Natural Resources Rents (% of GDP)

2.00
SDG 12.2 Total Natural
1.80
Resources Rents
1.60
• Economic rents from natural 1.40
resource extraction soared
1.20
between 2003 and 2006

Per cent
1.00
• However, there has been a 0.80
sharp decline from 2011 0.60
onwards
0.40
• As natural resources become 0.20
more scarce, extraction costs 0.00
increase since the low-

2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

2016
hanging fruits have already
been depleted Year

Source: World Bank estimate

20
SDG 13: Combat Climate Change

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 13.2 Net Emissions/Removals (CO2)
(In Gigagrams)
SDG 13.2 Net Carbon 35000
Emissions/Removals
30000
• Net carbon
emissions/removals were 25000
largely stable from 1990 to

Gigagrams
20000
2005
15000
• However, there was a big
drop in 2006 followed by a 10000
jump in 2011
5000
• Bangladesh is one of the least
carbon emitting yet most 0
climate vulnerable countries

2008
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006

2010
2012
2014
in the world Year
Source: FAO estimate

21
SDG 14: Conserve the Oceans

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries Production (Metric Tons)

4500000
SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries 4000000
Production 3500000

• Fisheries production 3000000

Metric tons
shows increasing trend 2500000
2000000
• Between 1990 and 2016,
1500000
fisheries production has
1000000
increased by a factor of 4
500000
• Trends indicate increasing 0
tendency of overfishing
1992

2002
1990

1994
1996
1998
2000

2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
which threatens fish stocks Year

Source: FAO

22
SDG 15: Protect Forests

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 15.2 Forest Area (% of Land Area)

12.00
SDG 15.2 Forest Area 11.80

• Forest’s share of land area 11.60

11.40
has been declining
11.20

Per cent
• In 1990, forests covered 11.00
only 11.4% of land – which 10.80
was already quite low 10.60
10.40
• Destruction of primary 10.20
forests can cause 10.00
irreversible damage to 1990

2012
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

2014
biodiversity Year

Source: FAO

23
SDG 16: Promote Peaceful Societies

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 16.1 Intentional Homicides

(Per 100,000 People)
SDG 16.1 Intentional 3.00
Homicides 2.90

• Murder rates have been 2.80

Intentional homicides
(per 100,000 people)
around 2.5 to 2.8 per 2.70

100,000 people during the 2.60

period 2000 and 2015 2.50

2.40
• Rates are low compared to 2.30
more unstable or violent 2.20
countries 2.10
• Data are estimates, since 2.00
crime is generally under- 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
reported Year
Source: UN Office on Drugs and Crime

24
SDG 17: Strengthen Means of
Implementation
Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue (% of GDP)

10.00
SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue 9.00
• Tax revenue as a share of GDP 8.00
was stagnant at around 7% 7.00
between 2001 and 2007 6.00

Per cent
5.00
• In 2016, tax revenue as a 4.00
share of GDP could not reach 3.00
even 9% 2.00
• Domestic revenue 1.00
mobilisation in Bangladesh is 0.00

2008

2015
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2016
poor compared to regional
standards Year

Source: International Monetary Fund, Government Finance Statistics

25
3. Methodology for Forecasting
Methodology

• Missing values in the data were imputed with

maximum likelihood estimates
• Forecasts were based on autoregressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA) models
• Box–Jenkins approach was followed to set up
benchmark ARIMA models
• To improve robustness, the benchmark models
were used to specify 100 different ARIMA models
which were averaged to obtain the final forecasts
• Seasonality was addressed when required

27
 4. Future Prospects of SDG
Implementation in Bangladesh
SDG 1: End Poverty

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 1.1 Poverty Headcount Ratio at National Poverty Line
(% of population living below national poverty line)

SDG 1.1: Poverty headcount 70

ratio at national poverty line 60

• The target for 2030 is to 50

have zero per cent of the

PER CENT
40
population living below 30
the national poverty line
20
• If current trends continue,
10
then 1.7% of the
population will be below 0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
the national poverty line in
2030 sdg1.1 (actual) sdg1.1 (forecast) sdg1.1 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

29
SDG 2: End Hunger

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 2.1 Prevalence of Undernourishment

(3-Year Average) (% of Population)

SDG 2.1: Prevalence of 35

undernourishment 30

• The target for 2030 is to 25

have zero per cent

PER CENT
20
prevalence of 15
undernourishment
10
• The forecast shows that 5
11.7% of the population
will still remain 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
undernourished in 2030, if
current trends continue sdg2.1 (actual) sdg2.1 (forecast) sdg2.1 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

30
SDG 3: Ensure Healthy Lives

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 3.1 Maternal Deaths (Per 100,000 Births)

600
SDG 3.1: Maternal deaths

MATERNAL DEATHS (PER 100,000 BIRTHS)

500
• The target for 2030 is to
have less than 70 maternal 400

deaths per 100,000 births 300

• At the current rate of 200

progress, the target will be
100
achieved within 2026
0

sdg3.1 (actual) sdg3.1 (forecast) sdg3.1 (target)

Source: Authors’ calculations

31
SDG 4: Ensure Quality Education

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 4.1 Lower Secondary Completion Rate,
Both Sexes (%)

SDG 4.1: Lower secondary 100

completion rate 90
80
• The target for 2030 is to 70

have 100% lower 60

PER CENT
secondary completion rate 50
40
• The forecast shows that 30

lower secondary 20

completion rate will be 10

97.6% in 2030, if current 0 1990

1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
trends continue
sdg4.1 (actual) sdg4.1 (forecast) sdg4.1 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

32
SDG 5: Achieve Gender Equality

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 5.3 Women Who Were First Married By Age 18 (% of
Women Ages 20-24)

SDG 5.3 Women Who Were 80

First Married By Age 18 70

• The target for 2030 is to 60

have zero per cent of 50

PER CENT
women between the ages 40

of 20-24 getting married 30

by age 18 20

10
• 48.9% women aged
between 20-24 will get 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
married by age 18 in 2030,
if current trends continue sdg5.3 (actual) sdg5.3 (forecast) sdg5.3 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

33
SDG 6: Ensure Sanitation for All

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 6.2 People Using At Least Basic Sanitation Services
(% of Population)

SDG 6.2 People Using At Least 100

Basic Sanitation Services 90

80
• The target for 2030 is 70

ensure that 100% of the 60

PER CENT
population have access to 50
40
basic sanitation services 30

• 68.7% of the population 20

will have access to basic 10

sanitation services in 0 1990

1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2030, if current trends
continue sdg6.2 (actual) sdg6.2 (forecast) sdg6.2 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

34
SDG 7: Ensure Access to Energy

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity (% of Population)

100
SDG 7.1 Access To Electricity 90
80
• The target for 2030 is to 70
provide electricity access 60

PER CENT
to 100% of the population 50

• If current trends continue, 40

30
95.6% of the population 20
will have access to 10
electricity in 2030 0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
sdg7.1 (actual) sdg7.1 (forecast) sdg7.1 (target)

Source: Authors’ calculations

35
SDG 8: Promote Economic Growth

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate (in %)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
SDG 8.1 GDP Growth Rate 10.0

• The target for 2030 is to 9.0

achieve and sustain 7% 8.0

7.0
annual GDP growth 6.0

PER CENT
• Annual GDP growth has 5.0
been over 7% since 2016 4.0

and is projected to reach 3.0

9.1% in 2030 2.0

1.0
• Similar forecasts were 0.0
obtained by the General 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Economics Division (GED)
sdg8.1 (actual) sdg8.1 (forecast) sdg8.1 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

36
SDG 9: Promote Industrialisation

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing in GDP (%)
At Constant Prices (Base Year 2005-06)
SDG 9.2 Share Of Manufacturing 45
in GDP 40
• The target for 2030 is to have 35
a share of manufacturing in 30
GDP which is double that of

PER CENT
25
the levels in 2015
20
• For Bangladesh, this would 15
mean a manufacturing share 10
of GDP of 40%
5
• By 2030, manufacturing will 0
be 31% of GDP, if current
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
trends continue
sdg9.2 (actual) sdg9.2 (forecast) sdg9.2 (target)
Source: Authors’ calculations

37
SDG 10: Reduce Inequality

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 10.1 Income Share of Bottom 40 Per Cent
(% of National Income)
SDG 10.1 Income Share of
Bottom 40 Per Cent 6

• The target for 2030 is to 4

increase the share of income

PERCENTAGE CHANGE
2
held by the poorest 40% of
the population 0

• This means that the growth -2

in the share of income held
by the poorest 40% of the -4

population should be greater -6

than zero
-8
• If current trends continue,

2012
1 990
1 992
1 994
1 996
1 998
2 000
2 002
2 004
2 006
2 008
2 010

2 014
2 016
2 018
2 020
2 022
2 024
2 026
2 028
2 030
income share of the poorest
40% will decrease by 1% sdg10.1 (actual) sdg10.1 (forecast) sdg10.1 (target)
annually in 2030
Source: Authors’ calculations

38
SDG 11: Make Cities Sustainable

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 11.1 Population Living In Slums
(% of Urban Population)

SDG 11.1 Population Living 100

In Slums 90
80

• The target for 2030 is to 70

60

PER CENT
ensure that zero per cent 50
of the urban population 40
are living in slums 30
20
• 34% of the urban 10

population will be living in 0

1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
slums in 2030, if current
trends continue sdg11.1 (actual) sdg11.1 (forecast) sdg11.1 (target)

Source: Authors’ calculations

39
SDG 12: Sustainable Consumption
& Production
Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 12.2 Total Natural Resources Rents (% of GDP)

2.00
SDG 12.2 Total Natural 1.80

Resources Rents 1.60

1.40
• Natural resource rents as a 1.20

PER CENT
percentage of GDP will fall 1.00
to 0.9% in 2030, if current 0.80

trends continue 0.60

0.40
• Extraction of natural 0.20
resources is forecasted to 0.00

be less profitable in 2030 1990

1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
compared to 2015 sdg12.2 (actual) sdg12.2 (forecast)

Source: Authors’ calculations

40
SDG 13: Combat Climate Change

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 13.2 Net Emissions/Removals (CO2)
(In Gigagrams)

SDG 13.2 Net Carbon 35000

Emissions/Removals 30000

• The target for 2030 is to 25000

reduce carbon emissions

GIGAGRAMS
20000

• By 2030, net carbon 15000

emissions/removals will 10000

rise back to levels similar
5000
to 2015
0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
sdg13.2 (actual) sdg13.2 (forecast)
Source: Authors’ calculations

41
SDG 14: Conserve the Oceans

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries Production (Metric Tons)

6000000
SDG 14.4 Total Fisheries
Production 5000000

• The target for 2030 is to

METRIC TONNES
4000000

pursue fishing in a 3000000

sustainable way
2000000
• Total fisheries production
1000000
is forecasted to keep rising
till 2030, although the rate 0

of increase will slow down

1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
gradually sdg14.4 (actual) sdg14.4 (forecast)

Source: Authors’ calculations

42
SDG 15: Protect Forests

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 15.2 Forest Area (% of Land Area)

0.00
SDG 15.2 Forest Area -0.02
• The target for 2030 is to stop -0.04

PERCENTAGE CHANGE
deforestation -0.06
-0.08
• This means that percentage -0.10
change in forest area as a -0.12
share of total land area -0.14
should be greater than or -0.16
equal to zero -0.18

• However, if current trends -0.20

continue, forest area is

forecasted to decline
continuously up to 2030 sdg15.2 (actual) sdg15.2 (forecast) sdg15.2 (target)

Source: Authors’ calculations

43
SDG 16: Promote Peaceful Societies

Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 16.1 Intentional Homicides

(Per 100,000 People)

SDG 16.1 Intentional 2.90

Homicides 2.80

DEATHS PER 100,000 PEOPLE

• The target for 2030 is to 2.70
reduce the murder rate
2.60
• Projecting the current
trends shows an increasing 2.50

trend in the murder rate 2.40

• Generally, criminal activity 2.30

is unpredictable by nature
sdg16.1 sdg16.1f
Source: Authors’ calculations

44
SDG 17: Strengthen Means of
Implementation
Target & indicator chosen: Figure: SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
18
SDG 17.1 Tax Revenue
16
• The target for 2030 is to have 14
tax revenue which is double 12
the level of tax revenue in

PER CENT
2015 10

8
• For Bangladesh, this would 6
be mean that tax revenue as a
4
percentage of GDP would
have to be 17% 2

0
• Tax revenue as a percentage 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
of GDP will be 10.7% in 2030
if current trends continue sdg17.1 (actual) sdg17.1 (forecast) sdg17.1 (target)

Source: Authors’ calculations

45
5. Conclusions and
Recommendations
 On-track SDGs
• The following SDG targets will be achieved or nearly
achieved in 2030

47
 Partially Off-track SDGs
• The following SDG targets will require intervention to be achieved or
nearly achieved by 2030

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 Completely Off-track SDGs
• The following SDG targets will not be achieved by
2030, and require immediate attention

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An SDG Scorecard for Bangladesh

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Source: Authors’ calculations
Recommendations

• Reduce tax evasion, and increase the number of

direct tax-payers
• Shift taxes away from consumption and income
and towards wealth and capital gain
• Revolutionise the education system in line with
the needs of the modern labour market
• Simplify the process of starting a business to
encourage entrepreneurship
• Create job opportunities for skilled youth
• Increase the number of protected areas and
nature reserves

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Recommendations (continued)

• Increase investment in agricultural research

and technology to increase food yields
• Create awareness about reducing early
marriage
• Involve local government actors to improve
sanitation
• Decentralise public institutions to reduce
pressure on cities
• Improve management of natural resources
• Prevent overfishing to protect fish stocks

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 THANK YOU

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