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International Macroeconomics: Slides For Chapter 10
International Macroeconomics: Slides For Chapter 10
International Macroeconomics: Slides For Chapter 10
International Macroeconomics
Columbia University
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
Motivation
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
Sudden Stops
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
At the end of 2001, Argentina suffered a crisis that had all the signs
of a sudden stop.
∗ All
graphs are taken from: “The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001,” prepared by a
team headed by Shinji Takagi, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund,
Independent Evaluation Office, 2004.
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
The next graph displays capital inflows in Argentina over the period
1991 to 2002.
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
The next graph displays the inverse of the peso/dollar real exchange
rate:
1 P Arg
=
epeso/dollar S peso/dollar P U S
where P Arg denotes the price level in Argentina, P U S the price level
in the United States, S peso/dollar the nominal exchange rate, defined
1
as the peso price of one U.S. dollar. and peso/dollar is the peso/dollar
e
real exchange rate.
The figure shows that the real exchange rate increased (that is,
depreciated) by about 200 percent in 2002. This means that the
Argentina becomes much cheaper relative to the United States in a
very short period of time. This cannot be explained by technological
progress as suggested by the Balassa-Samuelson model. Also, Argentina
did not apply tariffs of 200 percent at that time, so it was not trade
barriers either.
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
Suppose that φ(PN , PT ) = PT1−α PNα and that α = 0.75 (so that households allocate
75 percent of thier expenditute to nontradables,
us ausplausible
α number). Then
PN /PT
epeso/dollar = arg
PN /PTarg
Taking log differences
peso/dollar us us arg arg
h i
%∆e = α %∆(PN /PT ) − %∆(PN /PT )
arg arg
' 0% − α %∆(PN /PT )
arg arg
200% ' −0.75 %∆(PN /PT )
So the question of why did the real exchange rate depreciate so much becomes:
Why did the relative price of nontradables fall so much during the Sudden
Stop?
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
2 goods: QT and QN
QT = traded output
QN = nontraded output
PT = domestic currency price of traded good
PN = domestic currency price of nontraded good
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
Production
Production of Tradables:
Production of Nontradables:
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
Labor Supply
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
0
dQN = FN (LN )dLN (3)
[insert graph]
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This equations says that the slope of the PPF is equal to the
marginal rate of transformation between traded and nontraded goods.
profits = PT QT − W LT .
subject to
QT = FT (LT ).
Eliminate QT
profits = PT FT (LT ) − W LT
Choose LT to maximize profits
∂profits
= 0 ⇒ PT FT0 (LT ) = W (*)
∂LT
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
profits = PN QN − W LN .
subject to
QN = FN (LN ).
Eliminate QN
profits = PN FN (LN ) − W LN
Choose LN to maximize profits
∂profits 0 (L ) = W
= 0 ⇒ PN F N N (**)
∂LN
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
PT 0 (L )
FN
= 0 N (4)
PN FT (LT )
As we move down the PPF its slope becomes steeper and steeper
implying that the relative price of nontradables relative to tradables
falls.
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
and ...
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
CDS rates are often used to measure how borrowing costs increase
for a given country because they are easily available.
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
... And what happens to the real exchange rate? The real exchange
rate depreciates!
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
QT ↑ and QN ↓
∆e TB
GDP
Year % %
1979 -1.7
1980 -2.8
1981 -8.2
1982 20.6 0.3
1983 27.5 5.0
1984 5.1 1.9
1985 32.6 5.3
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International Macroeconomics, Chapter 10 Schmitt-Grohé, Uribe, Woodford
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