SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.476678
R Square 0.227222
Adjusted R 0.098425
Standard E 5.83968
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 60.16228 60.16228 1.764193 0.23239
Residual 6 204.6112 34.10186
Total 7 264.7734

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 90.47949 26.65813 3.394067 0.014602 25.2494 155.7096 25.2494 155.7096
X Variable 0.281009 0.211567 1.328229 0.23239 -0.23668 0.798694 -0.23668 0.798694
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.949469
R Square 0.901491
Adjusted R 0.885073
Standard E 2.08497
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 238.6908 238.6908 54.90809 0.00031
Residual 6 26.08259 4.347098
Total 7 264.7734

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
Intercept 110.2857 2.217287 49.73904 4.43E-09 104.8602 115.7112 104.8602 115.7112
X Variable 2.383929 0.321718 7.409999 0.00031 1.596713 3.171144 1.596713 3.171144
year quarter demand l0 102.27
1 1 98 T0 3.46
2 106
3 109
4 133
2 1 130
2 116
3 133
4 116
3 1 138
2 130
3 147
4 141

moving average exponentian smoothing

year quarter demand forecast mad mse mzpe year quarter

1 1 98 . 1 1
2 106 . 2
3 109 . 3
4 133 . 4
2 1 130 115.5 14.5 210.25 0.111538 2 1
2 116 119.5 3.5 12.25 0.030172 2
3 133 122 11 121 0.082707 3
4 116 128 12 144 0.103448 4
3 1 138 123.75 14.25 203.0625 0.103261 3 1
2 130 125.75 4.25 18.0625 0.032692 2
3 147 129.25 17.75 315.0625 0.120748 3
4 141 132.75 8.25 68.0625 0.058511 4
4 1 139 10.6875 136.4688 8.038475 4 1
2 139 2
3 139 3
4 139 4
5 1 139 5 1
2 139 2
3 139 3
4 139 4
tian smoothing 0.1 Holt's 0.1
year quarter demand level tren
demand forecast mad mape mse 102.27 3.46
98 98.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 1 98 104.96 3.38
106 98.00 8.00 0.08 64.00 2 106 108.11 3.36
109 98.80 10.20 0.09 104.04 3 109 111.22 3.33
133 99.82 33.18 0.25 1100.91 4 133 116.40 3.52
130 103.14 26.86 0.21 721.57 2 1 130 120.93 3.62
116 105.82 10.18 0.09 103.55 2 116 123.69 3.53
133 106.84 26.16 0.20 684.25 3 133 127.80 3.59
116 109.46 6.54 0.06 42.80 4 116 129.86 3.44
138 110.11 27.89 0.20 777.75 3 1 138 133.76 3.49
130 112.90 17.10 0.13 292.39 2 130 136.52 3.41
147 114.61 32.39 0.22 1049.07 3 147 140.64 3.48
141 117.85 23.15 0.16 535.94 4 141 143.81 3.45
120.16 18.47 14.03 456.36 4 1 146.64 3.39
120.16 2 146.64 3.05
120.16 3 146.64 2.75
120.16 4 146.64 2.47
120.16 5 1 146.64 2.22
120.16 2 146.64 2.00
120.16 3 146.64 1.80
120.16 4 146.64 1.62
 winter's 0.1 4
forecast mad mse mape year quarter demandDeseasonalized
level
102.27
105.73 7.73 59.75 0.08 1 1 1 98 105.02
108.34 2.34 5.48 0.02 2 2 106 108.84
111.47 2.47 6.10 0.02 3 3 109 98 111.75
114.55 18.45 340.29 0.14 4 4 133 106 116.83
119.92 10.08 101.67 0.08 5 2 1 130 109 121.50
124.55 8.55 73.10 0.07 6 2 116 133 124.94
127.23 5.77 33.35 0.04 7 3 133 130 128.84
131.39 15.39 236.85 0.13 8 4 116 116 130.63
133.29 4.71 22.15 0.03 9 3 1 138 133 134.55
137.25 7.25 52.56 0.06 10 2 130 116 138.06
139.94 7.06 49.88 0.05 11 3 147 138 141.90
144.13 3.13 9.80 0.02 12 4 141 130 144.91
147.27 7.74 82.58 6.25 13 4 1 134.55
150.03 14 2 138.06
149.69 15 3 141.90
149.39 16 4 144.91
149.11 17 5 1 134.55079
148.86 18 2 138.06144
148.64 19 3 141.90475
148.44 20 4 144.91197

2529.75
2478.9615
tren seasonal forecast mad mse mape
3.46
3.39 0.99 104.6727 6.6727 44.52493 0.068089
3.43 0.94 101.96 4.038078 16.30607 0.038095
3.38 1.02 114.23 5.2328 27.3822 0.048007
3.55 1.01 115.98 17.0241 289.82 0.128001
3.66 0.99 118.89 11.11247 123.4869 0.085481
3.64 0.94 118.14 2.1375 4.568906 0.018427
3.67 1.01 130.28 2.718207 7.388648 0.020438
3.48 1.02 135.21 19.2143 369.1893 0.165641
3.52 1.00 133.55 4.449095 19.79445 0.03224
3.52 0.94 130.11 0.116 0.013456 0.000892
3.55 1.02 143.73 3.26875 10.68473 0.022236
3.50 1.01 146.50 5.502 30.272 0.039021
2.11 1.00 148.24 6.7905 78.6193 5.554726
2.25 0.94 128.77
2.41 1.02 142.73
2.47 1.00 144.86
1.19 1.00 147.21
1.42 0.94 127.90
1.66 1.02 141.89
1.80 1.00 144.11

226.86 0.899279