POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES

College of Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering

Lecture # 5

ADVISER:

ENGR. KREZIA MORALES - TACTAC

 COURSE OUTLINE
III. TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

✓ Four-Step Forecasting Model

✓ Origin-Destination Table (OD Matrix)
✓ Methods for Estimating Trip Generation and
Attraction
✓ Trip Distribution
✓ Modal Split
✓ Route Assignment

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OV E R V I E W
T R AV E L D E M A N D F O R E CA S T I N G

❑ Number of persons/vehicles
expected to travel between a
particular origin and
destination via a particular
route and mode of travel over a
given time period.

❑ Required for:
➢N e w c o n s t r u c t i o n
➢E x p a n s i o n / i m p r o v e m e n t o f
existing facilities

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T R AV E L D E M A N D F O R E CA S T I N G

❑ Four decisions are the

basis of the traditional
travel demand model:

➢C h o i c e a n d r e a s o n t o
travel
➢D e s t i n a t i o n t o t r a v e l t o
➢M o d e b y w h i c h t o t r a v e l
➢R o u t e o n w h i c h t o t r a v e l

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 FOUR – STEP MODEL

1 . T R IP G EN ER AT IO N
How many person trips?

Trip Attraction
Trip Production

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 FOUR – STEP MODEL

2. TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Where are they going?

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 FOUR – STEP MODEL

MODAL SPLIT
What mode are they using?

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 FOUR – STEP MODEL

ROUTE ASSIGNMENT
What route will they take?

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TRIP GENERATION
 TRIP GENERATION

❑ Is the stage in the travel demand analysis

process which studies the relationships
between the urban area development and
the travel characteristics.

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 TRIP GENERATION

Tw o t yp e s o f t r i p :
1. Home-based trip (HB)
Trips that begin or end at a
residence

2. Non-home based trip (NHB)

Trips that neither begin or end at a
residence

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 FOUR – STEP MODEL

TRIP PRODUCTION Trip Production Trip Attraction

Estimated from
socio-economic
characteristics of
population and
travel needs for
various purposes

T R IP AT T R A C T IO N
Estimated from
availability and
intensity of
nonresidential
opportunities

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
1. Trip Rate Method – categorical
Trip generation rates are based on one or
several parameters or categories
2. Cross-classification
Cross-Classification procedures measure
the changes in one variable (trips) when
other variables (land use etc.) are
accounted for
3. Regression Method – statistical
Trip generation rates are estimated
from models incorporating parameter.
Math ematical equation that describes trips
as a function of another variable

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
1. Trip Rate Method – categorical
Trip generation rates are based on one or
several parameters or categories

Examples of Parameters:
1.Gross floor area (GFA in square meters or
square feet);
2.Number of employees
3.Area (hectares or acres)
4.Dwelling units; etc.

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
1. Trip Rate Method – categorical
Trip generation rates are based on one or
several parameters or categories

Examples of Categories:
1.Land use (residential, commercial,
industrial, recreational, etc.);
2.Car ownership (per household)
3.Density of development
4. Income; etc.

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
1. Trip Rate Method – categorical
Trip generation rates are based on one or
several parameters or categories

Classification of Land and their common measures

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 TRIP GENERATION

T R I P R AT E M E T H O D
Example:
Determine the number of trips per day
attracted to a zone where 220 downtown retail
and 650 nonretail workers are employed

HBW = 1.7(650)+1.7(220) = 1,479 trips

HBO = 2.0(650)+5.0(220) = 2,400 trips

NHB = 1.0(650)+3.0(220) = 1,310 trips
TOTAL= 5,189 trips

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
2. Cross - Classification
➢ Extension of the trip rate
➢ Estimate trip production cha racteristics of
households which are sorted in a number
of categories according to a set of
properties that characterize the household

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 TRIP GENERATION

C R O S S - C L AS S I F I C AT I O N
Example:
The numbe r of Trips per Household by auto
ownership obtained from a r e g i o n a l s t u d y.
Determine the trip rates and forecasted number
of trips in zone statistic s showed that:

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 TRIP GENERATION

C R O S S - C L AS S I F I C AT I O N
Example:
Forecasted Number of Households in Study
zone by Auto Ownership and size

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 TRIP GENERATION

C R O S S - C L AS S I F I C AT I O N
Solution:

Trip Rates

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 TRIP GENERATION

C R O S S - C L AS S I F I C AT I O N
Solution:

Forecasted Number of Trips in Zone

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
3. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
Mathematical equation that describes trips
as a function of another variable

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 TRIP GENERATION

Common methods for trip generation

analysis:
3. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
Mathematical equation that describes trips
as a function of another variable

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 TRIP GENERATION

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Example:

Before the household moves : Y = 0.12+ 0.09*6 + 0.011*50 - 0.15*4.5= 0.535 trips
After the household moves : Y = 0.12+ 0.09*6 + 0.011*50 - 0.15*1.5 = 0.985 trips

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 TRIP GENERATION

The trip generation stage will yield total trips

g e n e r a t e d o r a t t r a c t e d b y a z o n e / f a c i l i t y.

The totals for the Origin - Destination Matrix/

Table may be developed:

Origin – Destination Matrix Table

Give the number of trips from different origin
zones/facilities to different destination
zones/facilities.

➢ To t a l t r i p s g e n e r a t e d b y e a c h z o n e = r o w -
wise totals
➢To t a l t r i p s a t t r a c t e d b y e a c h z o n e = c o l u m n -
wise totals

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 TRIP GENERATION

➢ To t a l t r i p s g e n e r a t e d b y e a c h z o n e = r o w -
wise totals
➢To t a l t r i p s a t t r a c t e d b y e a c h z o n e = c o l u m n -
wise totals

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 TRIP GENERATION

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 TRIP GENERATION

➢ To t a l t r i p s g e n e r a t e d b y e a c h z o n e = r o w -
wise totals
➢To t a l t r i p s a t t r a c t e d b y e a c h z o n e = c o l u m n -
wise totals

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TRIP DISTRIBUTION
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

❑ Process by which trips generated in one zone are

allocated to other zones
❑ Predicts where trips go from each TAZ
❑ Determines trips between pairs of zones
Tij: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j

❑ Different methods but gravity model is most

popular

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
➢Assume that in the future trip making pattern will
remain substantially the same as today but that
the volume of trips will increase according to the
growth of the generating and attracting zones
➢Simpler than synthetic methods
➢Often adequate for small towns where
considerable changes in land use and external
factors are not expected

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
a) Constant Factor Method
➢basic assumption: the growth which is expected to
take place in the survey area will have an equal
effect on all the trips in the area
➢relationship between the present and future
trips

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
b) Average Factor Method
➢ takes into account the varying rates of growth of trip
making which can be expected in the differing zones
of a survey area
➢average growth factors used refers to origin and
destination ends of the trip.

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
b) Average Factor Method
➢ at the completion process, attractions and productions will not
agree with the future estimates and the procedure must be
iterated using new values of Ei and Ej as follows:

where g’i and a’i are the total generations and attractions of zone i
and j respectively, obtained from the previous distributions of trips

➢ iteration is done repeatedly until the growth factor approaches

unity and the successive values of t’ij and tij are within 1 to 5
percent depending on the accuracy required

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor
Methods
c) Detroit Method
➢assumes that trips
originating from zone i
will increase as
predicted by the growth
factor for zone i and will
be attracted to zone j in
proportion to the growth
factor of total trips

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
c) Detroit Method
➢at the completion process, attractions and
productions will not agree with the future estimates
and the procedure must be iterated using new values
Ei, Ej and E as follows:

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
d) Fratar Method
➢ assumes that the trips tij will increase in proportion to Ei and also in
proportion to Ej
➢ Multiplication of the existing flow by two growth factors will result in
the future trips originating in zone i being greater than the future
forecasts and so a normalizing expression is introduced which is
the sum of all the existing trips out of zone i multiplied by the by the
growth factor at the destination end of the trip

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
d) Fratar Method

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
e) Furness Method
➢ the flows from a zone are balanced in terms of
generations from each zone and then the
attractions to a zone area balanced
➢the iterative procedure may be summarized as
follows

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
1. Growth Factor Methods
e) Furness Method

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Example:
1. Growth Factor Methods
Present O/D Future O/D

O/D 1 2 3 4 g O/D 1 2 3 4 G
1 3 5 8 12 28 1 56
2 4 1 9 10 24 2 24
3 2 4 2 7 15 3 60
4 9 12 8 4 33 4 66
a 18 22 27 33 100 A 54 11 108 33 206

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Methods used:
2. Synthetic Methods
a.Gravity Model
➢ attempt to include
casual behind patterns
of movement in trip
distribution analysis
➢ not only can they be
used to predict future
flows of traffic but also
synthesize (or set up)
the base-year flows
without having to
survey every individual
cell in the trip matrix,
reducing the cost of
data collection

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Example:

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Example:

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Example:

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Example:

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Example:

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 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

S E AT W O R K # 2

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 END OF
P R E S E N TAT I O N
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