Effective March 2019

Airport Development
Reference Manual
Edition 11

Forecasting and planning sections

produced in collaboration with ACI
Effective March 2019

Airport Development
Reference Manual
Edition 11

International Air Transport Association

Montreal—Geneva
 NOTICE
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Senior Vice President

Airport, Passenger, Cargo and Security
International Air Transport Association
800 Place Victoria
P.O. Box 113
Montreal, Quebec
CANADA H4Z 1M1

Airport Development Reference Manual, 11th Edition

Material No.: 9044-11
ISBN 978-92-9229-853-1
© 2019 International Air Transport Association. All rights reserved.
Montreal—Geneva
 Table of Contents
Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................... ix

Section 1—Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 IATA–Who We Are; What We Do ...................................................................................................... 1
1.2 IATA's Airport Activities ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.2.1 Airport Consultative Committees (ACCs) ..............................................................................2
1.2.2 IATA Consulting Services for Airports...................................................................................2
1.2.3 International Industry Working Group ...................................................................................3
1.3 Other IATA Airport Activities .............................................................................................................. 4
1.4 Airports Council International (ACI) Collaboration .............................................................................4
1.4.1 Introduction to Airports Council International (ACI)...............................................................4
1.5 Purpose of the Airport Development Reference Manual ...................................................................5
1.6 Emerging Trends................................................................................................................................ 6
1.7 How to Use the ADRM ...................................................................................................................... 6
1.8 Reference Marks ................................................................................................................................ 7

Section 2—Forecasting...................................................................................................................................... 9
2.1 Introduction and Definition ............................................................................................................... 10
2.2 Economic Base for Air Travel........................................................................................................... 12
2.2.1 Airport Catchment Area....................................................................................................... 12
2.2.2 Socioeconomic Base........................................................................................................... 13
2.2.3 Transfer Traffic .................................................................................................................... 14
2.2.4 Airline Yields........................................................................................................................ 15
2.2.5 Tourism ............................................................................................................................... 15
2.2.6 Trade ................................................................................................................................... 17
2.2.7 Intermodal Transportation ................................................................................................... 17
2.2.8 Economic Base Data Analysis ............................................................................................ 18
2.3 Historical Aviation Activity ................................................................................................................ 18
2.3.1 Data Collection .................................................................................................................... 19
2.3.2 Airport Role ......................................................................................................................... 23
2.3.3 Historical Passenger Volumes ............................................................................................ 24
2.3.4 Top Domestic and International Destinations .....................................................................24
2.3.5 Historical Market Share by Airline .......................................................................................24
2.3.6 Historical Air Cargo Tonnage .............................................................................................. 25
2.3.7 Historical Movements by Segment......................................................................................25
2.3.8 Forecast Impact Factors...................................................................................................... 26

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2.4 Competitive Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 26

2.5 Review of Existing Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 27
2.6 Common Forecasting Techniques ................................................................................................... 27
2.6.1 Trend/Time Series............................................................................................................... 28
2.6.2 Consensus Forecasts.......................................................................................................... 28
2.6.3 Market Share Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 29
2.6.4 Econometric/Regression Model ..........................................................................................29
2.7 Passenger Activity Forecast............................................................................................................. 34
2.7.1 Passenger Activity Segments.............................................................................................. 34
2.7.2 Passenger Activity Benchmarking.......................................................................................35
2.7.3 Passenger Activity Alternative Scenarios............................................................................35
2.8 Baggage Forecast ............................................................................................................................ 36
2.9 Air Cargo Activity Forecast............................................................................................................... 37
2.9.1 Air Cargo Supply and Demand ........................................................................................... 37
2.9.2 Cargo Data Analysis............................................................................................................ 39
2.9.3 Cargo Market Forecast Benchmarking ...............................................................................40
2.9.4 Cargo Activity Forecast ....................................................................................................... 41
2.10 Air Transport Movement Forecast.................................................................................................... 42
2.10.1 ATM Segments.................................................................................................................... 42
2.10.2 Passenger ATMs................................................................................................................. 42
2.10.3 Freighter ATM Forecast ...................................................................................................... 46
2.10.4 General Aviation ATM Forecast ..........................................................................................47
2.10.5 Military/Government ATM Forecast.....................................................................................49
2.10.6 Total ATM Forecast............................................................................................................. 49
2.11 Peak Period Forecast....................................................................................................................... 49
2.11.1 Peak Period Traffic Measure............................................................................................... 49
2.11.2 Incorporating Directionality into Peak Hour Analysis ..........................................................51
2.11.3 Peak Period Forecasts ........................................................................................................ 51
2.11.4 Conclusions Regarding Peak Period Analysis ....................................................................53

Section 3—Planning ......................................................................................................................................... 55

3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 55
3.2 Master Planning ............................................................................................................................... 55
3.2.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................... 56
3.2.2 Consultation ........................................................................................................................ 60
3.2.3 The Master Planning Process ............................................................................................. 65
3.2.4 Preplanning ......................................................................................................................... 68
3.2.5 Traffic Forecasts.................................................................................................................. 72
3.2.6 Data Collection, Site Evaluation and Facility Potential .......................................................73
3.2.7 Requirements Analysis........................................................................................................ 79

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3.2.8 Development of Options...................................................................................................... 96

3.2.9 Environmental Responsibility ............................................................................................111
3.2.10 Land Use Planning ............................................................................................................ 121
3.2.11 Outline Development Plan................................................................................................. 128
3.2.12 Financial Assessment ....................................................................................................... 132
3.2.13 Reporting/Deliverables ...................................................................................................... 142
3.2.14 Master Planning on a Greenfield Site ...............................................................................147
3.2.15 Checklist for the Successful Opening of a New Airport ....................................................160
3.2.16 References ........................................................................................................................ 161
3.3 Airside Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................... 162
3.3.1 Runways............................................................................................................................ 162
3.3.2 Taxiways and Taxi-lanes................................................................................................... 171
3.3.3 Aprons .............................................................................................................................. 176
3.3.4 Aircraft Ground Servicing .................................................................................................. 211
3.3.5 Air and Ground Navigation Aids........................................................................................ 241
3.4 Passenger Terminal ....................................................................................................................... 255
3.4.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 255
3.4.2 Terminal Design Considerations ....................................................................................... 256
3.4.3 Terminal Planning Concepts ............................................................................................. 273
3.4.4 Terminal Capacity and Level of Service ...........................................................................302
3.4.5 Level of Service Concept and Planning Guidelines ..........................................................310
3.4.6 Demand–Capacity Assessment ........................................................................................316
3.4.7 The “Optimum” Solution and Balanced Capacity ..............................................................327
3.4.8 Passenger Process ........................................................................................................... 328
3.4.9 Segregation and Security Requirements in Airport Terminals ..........................................332
3.4.10 Vertical and Horizontal Circulation ....................................................................................336
3.4.11 Departures......................................................................................................................... 338
3.4.12 Transfers ........................................................................................................................... 406
3.4.13 Arrivals .............................................................................................................................. 411
3.4.14 Commercial Development ................................................................................................. 436
3.4.15 Access to Air Travel for Persons with Reduced Mobility ..................................................475
3.4.16 Toilet Provisions ................................................................................................................ 483
3.4.17 Passenger Wayfinding and Signage .................................................................................486
3.4.18 Landside Access Systems and Forecourts .......................................................................499
3.4.19 Baggage Handling............................................................................................................. 508

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3.5 Cargo Terminal............................................................................................................................... 574

3.5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 574
3.5.2 Cargo Operations .............................................................................................................. 574
3.5.3 Digital Cargo...................................................................................................................... 583
3.5.4 Air/Rail Cargo .................................................................................................................... 583
3.5.5 The Cargo Apron............................................................................................................... 584
3.5.6 The Cargo Facility ............................................................................................................. 590
3.5.7 Forecasting and Sizing...................................................................................................... 591
3.5.8 Sizing Parameters ............................................................................................................. 595
3.5.9 Cargo Design Considerations: Scope of Evaluation .........................................................599
3.5.10 Typical Cargo Flows.......................................................................................................... 610
3.5.11 Cargo Communication Controls ........................................................................................612
3.5.12 Cargo Control Regulations ................................................................................................ 613
3.5.13 Cargo Security Controls .................................................................................................... 614
3.5.14 Cargo Safety Controls ....................................................................................................... 615
3.5.15 Cargo Government Controls ............................................................................................. 615
3.5.16 Cargo Facilitation .............................................................................................................. 615
3.5.17 Express Cargo Processing................................................................................................617
3.5.18 Perishable Cargo............................................................................................................... 626
3.5.19 Mail Facilities..................................................................................................................... 634
3.6 Airport Support Elements ............................................................................................................... 638
3.6.1 Aircraft Maintenance ......................................................................................................... 638
3.6.2 Airline Administration Buildings .........................................................................................641
3.6.3 Airport Authority Administration.........................................................................................642
3.6.4 Airport Maintenance and Logistics ....................................................................................642
3.6.5 Aircraft Deicing/Anti-Icing Facilities ...................................................................................647
3.6.6 General Aviation................................................................................................................ 652
3.6.7 Ground Service Equipment Maintenance .........................................................................653
3.6.8 Aircraft In-Flight Catering Facilities ...................................................................................654
3.6.9 Airport Security/Controlled Access.................................................................................... 656
3.6.10 Vehicle Refueling and Recharging Stations......................................................................665
3.6.11 Airport Fire Services.......................................................................................................... 669
3.6.12 Utilities............................................................................................................................... 673
3.6.13 Airport Collaborative Decision-Making ..............................................................................681

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3.7 Surface Access Systems ............................................................................................................... 689

3.7.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 689
3.7.2 Preplanning ....................................................................................................................... 695
3.7.3 Data Collection and Site Evaluation..................................................................................698
3.7.4 Forecasts........................................................................................................................... 701
3.7.5 Development of Options.................................................................................................... 706
3.8 Airport Simulation ........................................................................................................................... 732
3.8.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 732
3.8.2 History and Evolution ........................................................................................................ 733
3.8.3 Definitions and Basic Considerations................................................................................737
3.8.4 Areas of Application .......................................................................................................... 743
3.8.5 Project Methodology.......................................................................................................... 756
3.8.6 Best Practice Project Life Cycle Examples .......................................................................768
3.8.7 General Considerations and Lessons Learned.................................................................790
3.9 Airport Technology ......................................................................................................................... 800
3.9.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 800
3.9.2 Airport Digital Transformation............................................................................................803
3.9.3 Airport IT Trends ............................................................................................................... 810
3.10 Jet Fuel Infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 831
3.10.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 831
3.10.2 Components of Airport Fuel Infrastructure ........................................................................832
3.10.3 Jet Fuel Supply Design Requirements and Planning Considerations...............................839
3.10.4 Cost Estimates of Fuel Infrastructure at Airports ..............................................................847
3.10.5 Best Practice in Developing Requests for Tenders, Including Specific Models................849
3.10.6 Economic and Financial Best Practices ............................................................................850
3.10.7 Relevant Publications........................................................................................................ 852
3.11 Operational Readiness and Airport Transfer..................................................................................855
3.11.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................... 855
3.11.2 Program Structure ............................................................................................................. 857
3.11.3 ORAT Stages .................................................................................................................... 871
3.11.4 ORAT Workstreams .......................................................................................................... 879

Glossary .......................................................................................................................................................... 891

Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................ 899

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