The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the

author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the

Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian
Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the
governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the
accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no
responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology
used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

PRC’S HIGH SPEED RAIL

DEVELOPMENT-A
RETROSPECTIVE STUDY
T&I GP Forum
May 28, 21015
Ziming Liu
September 6th 2019
 Why did we
study PRC’s
HSR?
1 Lessons Learnt from China's HSR Development
China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

2 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

3 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

4 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

5 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

6 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

7 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

8 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

9 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

10 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

China’s HSR Network developed rapidly over the last 10 years

11 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

By 2025…

12 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

 A look into the
contents.

13 Lessons Learnt from China's HSR Development

Report Structure

Executive Summary

1. Network Planning and Growth

2. Service Design

3. Markets

4. Construction

5. Testing, Commissioning, and Safety

6. Finance

7. Economics

Conclusions

14 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Network Growth-Consistent but evolving HSR Plan-Making

Planned HSR Length CHINA’S HSR NETWORK PLANS, 2008 VS 2016

2004 12,000 km by 2020
2008 16,000 km by 2020
2016 30,000 km by 2020
38,000 km by 2025

HSR LENGTH, 2008-2017

15 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Capacity-Strong Government Capacities and Proper Institutional Set-
ups

HSR Sector Structure

16 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Service Design-Choice of Speed and Fare

Speed Fare

Before 2016:
Guided by States Council

After 2016:
Pricing flexibility given to CRC,
Esp. for 200-250 lines.

17 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Service Design-Frequency/Market Size

Selected HSR Service Patterns (August 2018) Implications

First Last Services
Section
Departure Arrival /day(1)
Intercity lines • Frequency
Beijing – Tianjin 0646 2325 100 • Intercity service: 1-hour off-
Changchun – Jilin 0545 2301 69
peak periods, 0.5-hour
Shanghai - Nanjing 0548 2330 227(2)
Guangzhou – peak periods
0600 2337 191(2)
Shenzhen • Long-distance service: a
Chengdu - Chongqing 0639 2329 78
mix of long and short-
Long-distance lines
Beijing – Shanghai 0639 2339 44 distance train service.
Wuhan – Guangzhou 0622 2344 54 • Market Size
Zhengzhou – Xian 0556 2252 32 • Hourly service, 7 AM to 11
Wenzhou – Fuzhou 0710 2224 31
(1) Per direction; some lines also have services to/from intermediate points
PM, and 8-car/500 seat
(2) Two lines
capacity with 70% load
factor translates into 4
million passenger a year.

18 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Market-Shift of Mode

HSR services have drawn about half its passengers from conventional rail services.
About 25% come from bus and car and about 10% from air (10%). Some 15-20%
are new passengers.

19 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Market-Competitiveness with Air and Highway
HSR is very competitive with other modes Impact on Air service
for trip distances between 150 and 800 km
and remains competitive up to 1200 km.

20 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Market-Impact on Conventional Rail
Conventional services are
still heavily used—they
are much cheaper than
HSR (by 3:1 or 4:1) and
provide services to
stations not served by
HSR. Shifting passengers
has freed capacity on
conventional services,
which can now serve
pent-up demand.

The low fare allows HSR to

attract passengers from
all income levels.

Any Impact on freight

capacity?

21 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Construction-Low Cost
Average Cost Technical Standards
Main Technical Standards for Different Maximum Speed HSR Lines1
200
180 350 km/hr 300 km/hr2 250 km/hr 200 km/hr
RMB/km (million)

Distance between centers

5.0 4.8 4.6 4.2
160 of tracks of main line (m)
Normal 7000 Normal 5000 Normal 3200
140 Alignment
Minimum
horizontal
Ballastless
Difficult 5500
Normal 7000
Difficult4000
Normal 5000
Difficult2800
Normal 3500
Normal2200
Difficult2000
120 radius (m) Ballasted
Difficult6000 Difficult4500 Difficult3000
Normal15000
100 Minimum vertical m) 25000 25000 20000
Difficult10000
Ballasted or
80 Track Type of track Ballastless
Ballastless
Mostly Ballasted, sometimes Ballastless

60 Ballastless 13.6 13.4 13.2

11.5 or 11.7(without
cable trough on the
13 (with cable
trough on the
40 Subgrade
width(m)
subgrade shoulder) subgrade shoulder)
10.3(without cable 11.8(with cable
20 Ballasted — 13.4 trough on the trough on the
subgrade shoulder) subgrade shoulder)
0 Subgrade Subgrade Ballastless 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
thickness (m) Ballasted — 3 3
200 km/hr 250 km/hr 350 km/hr European Post- Ballastless ≤1.5 ≤1.5 ≤1.5 ≤1.5
lines, lines, lines, Average construction
subgrade
General sections
≤10. Transition General sections ≤15. Transition
settlement Ballasted —
Chinese Chinese Chinese (cm
sections at bridge
abutments ≤5
sections at bridge abutments ≤8

Project-level Cost
Uniform Ballastless ≤20 ≤20 ≤20 ≤20
settlement of
abutment or Ballasted — ≤30 ≤50
pier (mm)
Bridge
Differential Ballastless ≤5 ≤5 ≤5 ≤10
and
settlement of
culverts
adjacent
abutments Ballasted — ≤15 ≤20
and piers
(mm)
Double-track
Double-track tunnels≥100 Double-track tunnels≥72
tunnels≥90
Tunnel Effective area(m2)
Single-track
Single-track tunnels≥70 Single-track tunnels≥35
tunnels≥58
Signaling Train operation control CTCS-3 CTCS-3 or CTCS-2 CTCS-2
CTCS-3: Single
network interlaced
coverage
Communi Single network interlaced
GSM-R system CTCS-2: common Single network interlaced coverage
cations coverage
single network
interlaced
coverage
Power Direct power supply with current return
Traction power supply AT power supply mode
supply wire

1
The design of 250, 300, and 350 km/hr lines follow the Code for Design for High Speed Railway (TB10621-2014), and the
design of 200 km/hr lines follows the Code for Design of Intercity Railway Line (TB10623-2014).
2
In practice, no 300 km/hr has yet been built in China.

22 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Construction-Management

Standardization of design and

CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE
procedures

Complete HSR supply chain of

engineering construction,
equipment manufacturing,
technology research, and
operational management

Fast timeline for planning, design,

and approval

Incentive compensation program

for construction project mangers
to save costs, complete on-time,
safely, and with high quality

23 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Testing, Commissioning, and Safety
Five Stage Completion Acceptance of Life-cycle Comprehensive Safety
New Lines Management System
1. Static acceptance; 1. System Guarantee;
2. Dynamic acceptance; 2. Technical Equipment Control;
3. Initial acceptance; 3. Personnel Organization; and
4. Safety assessment; and 4. Emergency Rescue.
5. Formal acceptance.

Scheduled Infrastructure Inspection and Rolling Stock Maintenance with

Maintenance 1. Scheduled inspection; and
HSR Track Maintenance Inspection Program

Method Content 2. A network of maintenance depots.

Equipment Interval
Track Geometry Status Integrated Test Train 10 Day
Vehicle Dynamic Response Integrated Test Train 10 Days
Wheel and Rail Dynamics Integrated Test Train 10 Days
Dynamic
Unit Status Comprehensive Inspection Train Quarter
Rail Detecting Rail Detection Train Month
Subgrade, Track Bed Status Address Radar Detection Train Year
Track Stiffness Track Loading Train Year

Tunnel Lining Status Tunnel Inspection Train Year

Track Geometry Status Track Inspection Equipment Month
Line Profile Profile Tester Year
Static Tunnel, Track Bed Surface Laser Profile Measuring Instrument
Year
Condition Checker
Switch and Regulator Inspection Equipment Year
Flaw Detector, Profile Inspection
Rail Status Month
Equipment
Track Track Monitoring Device Year
Precision Measurement Network Total Station Precision Measurement Car Year

24 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Finance-Financing Models

25 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Finance-Revenue Models

26 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Finance-Financial Performance-Line
Breakeven passenger density Breakeven tariffs
At opening

For full debt service for future years

27 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Finance-Financial Performance-Breakdown
250 KM/HR LINES 350 KM/HR LINES

Assuming 400 km long line, 15 million passengers Assuming 400 km long line, 30 million passengers

28 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

Finance-Financial Performance-Network
NPV FIRR
Financial analysis of CRH network as at end-2015 Scenario Inflation Period FIRR
(RMB 2015 discounted at 7% to 2015)
HSR Revenue and Cost 2% 30 years 5.5%
RMB billion
HSR Network +CR cost and savings 2% 30 years 6.4%
Construction -3498
Revenue 6329 +HSR Residual Value 2% 30 years 5.0%
Train operating cost -3020
Infrastructure maintenance -554 HSR Revenue and Cost 0% 30 years 5.0%
Total -743
Conventional Network HSR Revenue and Cost 2% 20 years 4.1%
Capital cost avoided 468
Revenue lost -940
HSR Revenue and Cost 2% 10 years 2.4%
Train operating cost saved 940
Total 468
350 km/hr Revenue and Cost 2% 30 years 9.7%
Residual value (1) 1570 250 km/hr Revenue and Cost 2% 30 years 0.2%
Combined total 1295
(1) The (discounted) value of the network
(2) at the end of the 30-year evaluation period

Addressing Financial Sustainability

Increasing Reduce Government Grouping Debt

revenue costs Subsidy Lines Reprofiling

29
Economics
Economic costs and benefits EIRR
China HSR Lines
Scenario EIRR
Base 8.0%
Exclude regional benefits 6.8%
50% of time savings 5.8%
50% of operating cost savings 7.1%
Exclude regional 7.1%
benefits/externalities

WB Financed Projects, ad hoc

Line EIRR
Shijiazhuang - Zhengzhou 15%
Guiyang - Guangzhou 18%
Jilin- Hunchun 8%
Nanning - Guangzhou 16%

30 China’s High-Speed Rail Development-A Retrospective Study 中国高速铁路发展-回顾式研究

 Experience for
other countries?

31 Lessons Learnt from China's HSR Development

Planning, Capacity, Management, and Safety

Planning

Service
Capacity
quality

Local
Safety
Partner

32 China's HSR Development: Lessons for Other Countries

Service, Markets, and Price

Right market? What Price?

• Medium • Competitive
distance with other
• High traffic modes
volume • Affordable

33 China's HSR Development: Lessons for Other Countries

Financial and Economics

High
Financially
Right Price Traffic
viable
Density

Economic-
ally viable

34 China's HSR Development: Lessons for Other Countries

 Thank you!

download the book here:

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org
/handle/10986/31801

35 Lessons Learnt from China's HSR Development