Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019

October 10th 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 29.1 38.5 13.1 15.7 - 2.7
Quebec 18.0 33.9 11.3 6.3 27.0 2.1
Ontario 32.5 38.9 14.8 10.2 - 2.5
Prairies 49.7 20.3 18.0 9.0 - 2.9
Alberta 58.8 20.3 12.3 4.9 - 3.6
BC 31.7 31.6 17.2 15.6 - 2.5
Canada* 33.5 33.2 14.0 9.7 5.6 2.5

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 22 3 0 0
Quebec 12 37 2 0 26 1
Ontario 38 72 11 0 0
Prairies 22 3 3 0 0
Alberta 33 1 0 0 0
BC 18 13 5 5 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 130 151 24 5 26 1 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.

Avalon 26% 44% 12% 16% 3%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 21% 63% 3% 13% 2%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 29% 56% 2% 13% 3%
NFL

Labrador 25% 53% 10% 13% 2%

Long Range Mountains 23% 55% 7% 15% 2%
St. John's East 18% 27% 41% 14% 3%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 16% 39% 32% 13% 2%
Cardigan 27% 47% 7% 19% 3%
Charlottetown 26% 37% 19% 18% 3%
PEI
PEI Egmont 40% 30% 15% 15% 3%
Malpeque 28% 43% 7% 22% 3%
Cape Breton--Canso 27% 53% 4% 16% 2%
Central Nova 37% 40% 6% 17% 3%
Cumberland--Colchester 37% 45% 1% 16% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 25% 39% 20% 16% 3%
Halifax 20% 33% 32% 16% 3%
NS

Halifax West 27% 50% 7% 16% 2%

Kings--Hants 30% 52% 2% 16% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 26% 29% 30% 15% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 34% 38% 13% 16% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 23% 52% 9% 16% 2%
West Nova 37% 44% 2% 17% 3%
Acadie--Bathurst 19% 31% 35% 15% 3%
Beauséjour 22% 50% 11% 17% 2%
Fredericton 39% 30% 5% 25% 3%
Fundy Royal 48% 22% 13% 17% 4%
Madawaska--Restigouche 27% 37% 22% 15% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 45% 28% 11% 16% 4%

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 32% 39% 12% 17% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 49% 25% 8% 18% 4%
Saint John--Rothesay 41% 30% 13% 16% 3%
Tobique--Mactaquac 48% 28% 7% 18% 4%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 12% 33% 21% 7% 25% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 9% 28% 26% 6% 28% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 9% 46% 16% 6% 21% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 13% 45% 7% 6% 27% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 13% 42% 10% 6% 27% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 8% 38% 9% 5% 39% 2%
Beauce 29% 20% 0% 6% 15% 31%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
33% 25% 7% 6% 26% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 32% 25% 10% 7% 23% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 13% 22% 7% 6% 49% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 50% 19% 0% 7% 20% 3%
 Beloeil--Chambly 10% 26% 15% 6% 40% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 12% 15% 33% 6% 32% 2%
Bourassa 11% 54% 1% 6% 25% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 13% 42% 10% 6% 28% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 14% 48% 10% 6% 20% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 43% 22% 4% 6% 21% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 13% 37% 9% 6% 34% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 43% 29% 4% 6% 15% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 14% 35% 13% 6% 31% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 12% 51% 9% 6% 20% 2%
Drummond 19% 25% 14% 6% 33% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 8% 37% 21% 5% 28% 2%
Gatineau 10% 53% 12% 6% 17% 2%
Hochelaga 9% 29% 16% 8% 36% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 14% 56% 3% 6% 20% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 10% 51% 17% 6% 15% 2%
Joliette 12% 28% 9% 7% 43% 2%
Jonquière 27% 24% 13% 6% 28% 2%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 10% 28% 13% 6% 41% 2%
La Prairie 13% 34% 9% 6% 35% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 30% 23% 13% 6% 25% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 18% 59% 1% 7% 13% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 8% 40% 16% 7% 27% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 12% 32% 9% 6% 39% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 6% 33% 19% 8% 31% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 20% 48% 3% 6% 21% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 50% 20% 0% 6% 20% 3%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 11% 34% 10% 7% 36% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 10% 28% 7% 16% 37% 2%

Louis-Hébert 29% 34% 5% 7% 23% 2%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 51% 20% 0% 6% 19% 3%
Manicouagan 13% 29% 2% 6% 48% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 14% 41% 6% 6% 31% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 37% 27% 6% 6% 21% 3%
Mirabel 12% 25% 13% 7% 41% 2%
Montarville 12% 30% 10% 6% 37% 3%
Montcalm 12% 27% 6% 6% 46% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
29% 26% 13% 6% 24% 3%
Mount Royal 35% 45% 0% 5% 12% 2%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 15% 54% 10% 7% 13% 2%
Outremont 11% 32% 27% 8% 20% 2%
Papineau 7% 52% 12% 7% 20% 1%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 12% 26% 10% 12% 38% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 20% 54% 4% 5% 14% 2%
Pontiac 16% 54% 8% 6% 15% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 45% 20% 6% 6% 19% 3%
Québec 23% 28% 12% 7% 27% 2%
Repentigny 13% 27% 6% 6% 45% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 32% 23% 10% 6% 28% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
12% 26% 20% 6% 34% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 13% 35% 13% 6% 31% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 11% 26% 13% 7% 41% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 6% 20% 35% 7% 29% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 18% 26% 13% 6% 34% 2%
Saint-Jean 12% 31% 15% 6% 34% 2%
Saint-Laurent 20% 57% 0% 6% 15% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 13% 64% 1% 6% 15% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 17% 39% 6% 6% 29% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 12% 28% 15% 6% 38% 2%
Shefford 14% 37% 9% 6% 32% 2%
Sherbrooke 11% 28% 21% 6% 31% 2%
Terrebonne 13% 27% 9% 6% 42% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 14% 32% 8% 7% 36% 3%
Trois-Rivières 20% 28% 16% 6% 28% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 15% 44% 8% 6% 24% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 13% 47% 11% 8% 19% 2%
Vimy 15% 46% 4% 7% 26% 2%
Ajax 32% 50% 7% 9% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 22% 28% 39% 8% 2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 43% 42% 4% 9% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 44% 31% 10% 13% 2%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 39% 35% 9% 14% 3%
Bay of Quinte 32% 45% 11% 11% 2%
Beaches--East York 15% 44% 29% 11% 2%
Brampton Centre 32% 44% 14% 8% 2%
Brampton East 22% 47% 21% 7% 2%
Brampton North 31% 44% 15% 8% 2%
Brampton South 33% 47% 9% 8% 2%
Brampton West 24% 55% 11% 8% 2%
Brantford--Brant 39% 25% 23% 10% 3%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 41% 34% 10% 12% 3%
Burlington 39% 40% 8% 11% 2%
Cambridge 36% 38% 12% 12% 2%
Carleton 43% 37% 5% 13% 2%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 37% 35% 18% 8% 3%
Davenport 11% 43% 32% 12% 2%
Don Valley East 27% 52% 8% 11% 2%
Don Valley North 35% 45% 7% 10% 2%
Don Valley West 35% 48% 4% 10% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 41% 34% 6% 17% 2%
Durham 42% 30% 15% 11% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 40% 43% 5% 10% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 48% 27% 14% 8% 3%
Essex 35% 16% 40% 6% 3%
Etobicoke Centre 35% 47% 6% 10% 2%
Etobicoke North 21% 57% 11% 9% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 30% 48% 9% 10% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 41% 34% 12% 10% 2%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 34% 47% 6% 10% 3%
Guelph 24% 43% 10% 20% 3%
Haldimand--Norfolk 44% 33% 13% 8% 2%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 42% 26% 18% 12% 2%
 Hamilton Centre 14% 30% 41% 12% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 23% 34% 31% 10% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 24% 28% 34% 10% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 30% 42% 14% 11% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 39% 36% 11% 11% 2%
Humber River--Black Creek 18% 61% 9% 10% 2%
Huron--Bruce 42% 33% 11% 11% 2%
Kanata--Carleton 36% 45% 5% 12% 2%
Kenora 27% 30% 33% 8% 2%
Kingston and the Islands 20% 49% 15% 13% 2%
King--Vaughan 42% 42% 5% 8% 2%
Kitchener Centre 28% 43% 15% 12% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 34% 36% 14% 12% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 40% 37% 8% 11% 4%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 46% 27% 17% 8% 3%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 45% 28% 13% 12% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau44%
Lakes 34% 7% 12% 2%
London North Centre 30% 47% 13% 8% 2%
London West 34% 42% 13% 7% 3%
London--Fanshawe 28% 29% 33% 8% 3%
Markham--Stouffville 33% 37% 0% 9% 2% 19%
Markham--Thornhill 30% 50% 9% 9% 2%
Markham--Unionville 47% 38% 3% 10% 2%
Milton 42% 34% 9% 11% 3%
Mississauga Centre 32% 50% 8% 8% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 33% 49% 7% 8% 2%

Mississauga--Erin Mills 37% 45% 8% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 39% 43% 7% 9% 3%
Mississauga--Malton 25% 54% 11% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 38% 43% 8% 9% 2%
Nepean 33% 46% 7% 12% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 41% 40% 7% 10% 2%
Niagara Centre 28% 31% 30% 9% 2%
Niagara Falls 36% 31% 20% 10% 3%
Niagara West 48% 28% 10% 10% 4%
Nickel Belt 15% 38% 37% 9% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 28% 47% 15% 9% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 37% 36% 13% 11% 2%
Oakville 39% 43% 4% 11% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 40% 41% 6% 10% 3%
Orléans 28% 53% 6% 11% 2%
Oshawa 36% 22% 30% 10% 3%
Ottawa Centre 13% 43% 28% 13% 3%
Ottawa South 22% 54% 10% 12% 2%
Ottawa West--Nepean 28% 50% 8% 12% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 17% 51% 17% 12% 3%
Oxford 45% 29% 16% 8% 3%
Parkdale--High Park 12% 37% 38% 11% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 39% 35% 9% 14% 3%
Perth--Wellington 41% 32% 14% 11% 2%
Peterborough--Kawartha 32% 38% 17% 10% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 36% 45% 8% 10% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 48% 30% 8% 12% 3%
Richmond Hill 41% 41% 6% 9% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 37% 23% 30% 7% 3%
Sault Ste. Marie 30% 40% 20% 8% 2%
Scarborough Centre 30% 45% 10% 10% 5%
Scarborough North 26% 43% 20% 10% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 19% 46% 21% 11% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 36% 46% 6% 10% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 25% 54% 9% 10% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 25% 54% 8% 10% 2%
Simcoe North 42% 34% 9% 13% 2%
Simcoe--Grey 44% 32% 8% 13% 2%
Spadina--Fort York 14% 49% 25% 10% 2%
St. Catharines 35% 38% 15% 10% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 45% 34% 7% 11% 3%
Sudbury 20% 42% 27% 9% 2%
 Thornhill 56% 29% 4% 8% 4%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 19% 39% 28% 11% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 16% 40% 22% 20% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 19% 29% 42% 8% 2%
Toronto Centre 11% 52% 24% 11% 2%
Toronto--Danforth 9% 38% 39% 13% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 25% 49% 13% 11% 2%
University--Rosedale 16% 44% 26% 11% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 42% 44% 3% 8% 4%
Waterloo 30% 44% 13% 11% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 48% 31% 7% 13% 2%
Whitby 40% 40% 9% 10% 2%
Willowdale 35% 48% 5% 10% 2%
Windsor West 20% 21% 50% 7% 3%
Windsor--Tecumseh 26% 22% 42% 6% 3%
York Centre 38% 44% 5% 10% 2%
York South--Weston 17% 40% 28% 10% 4%
York--Simcoe 48% 31% 7% 11% 2%
Brandon--Souris 60% 21% 4% 12% 3%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
46% 29% 12% 10% 3%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 20% 26% 44% 8% 3%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 61% 15% 11% 11% 3%
Elmwood--Transcona 42% 8% 37% 10% 3%
Kildonan--St. Paul 48% 30% 12% 8% 3%
Portage--Lisgar 73% 10% 4% 10% 3%
Man.

Provencher 66% 19% 3% 10% 3%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 36% 35% 16% 9% 2%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 63% 16% 9% 10% 3%
Winnipeg Centre 19% 30% 37% 11% 2%
Winnipeg North 24% 46% 19% 10% 2%
Winnipeg South 42% 35% 11% 9% 2%
Winnipeg South Centre 36% 37% 15% 10% 2%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 68% 7% 15% 7% 3%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 72% 5% 11% 8% 3%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 36% 23% 31% 7% 3%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 69% 4% 16% 7% 3%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 61% 8% 21% 7% 3%
Prince Albert 55% 10% 25% 7% 3%
Regina--Lewvan 39% 16% 33% 9% 3%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 49% 12% 28% 9% 3%

Regina--Wascana 33% 46% 10% 9% 2%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 46% 15% 28% 9% 3%
Saskatoon--University 46% 14% 29% 9% 3%
Saskatoon West 37% 13% 37% 9% 3%
Souris--Moose Mountain 75% 4% 11% 8% 3%
Yorkton--Melville 64% 8% 17% 8% 3%
Banff--Airdrie 61% 23% 8% 6% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 77% 7% 8% 5% 3%
Bow River 76% 11% 6% 4% 3%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 44% 41% 7% 5% 3%
Calgary Confederation 45% 38% 8% 6% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 31% 11% 6% 5%
Calgary Heritage 62% 21% 8% 5% 3%
Calgary Midnapore 65% 18% 9% 6% 3%
Calgary Nose Hill 59% 22% 10% 6% 4%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 59% 26% 7% 5% 3%
Calgary Shepard 64% 20% 8% 6% 3%
Calgary Signal Hill 59% 25% 6% 6% 4%
Calgary Skyview 40% 42% 9% 5% 3%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 35% 33% 25% 5% 3%
Edmonton Griesbach 40% 17% 34% 4% 4%
Edmonton Manning 45% 23% 24% 4% 3%
Edmonton Mill Woods 41% 37% 13% 4% 4%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 49% 25% 17% 4% 4%

Edmonton Strathcona 33% 27% 31% 4% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 49% 30% 13% 4% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 64% 18% 10% 4% 4%
Foothills 74% 10% 7% 5% 4%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 59% 25% 8% 4% 4%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 70% 12% 9% 5% 4%
Lakeland 70% 11% 11% 4% 4%
Lethbridge 56% 15% 21% 5% 3%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 67% 15% 10% 5% 3%
Peace River--Westlock 67% 10% 15% 4% 4%
Red Deer--Mountain View 72% 10% 9% 5% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 68% 12% 12% 5% 3%
St. Albert--Edmonton 54% 24% 14% 4% 3%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 65% 16% 11% 4% 4%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 69% 13% 11% 5% 3%
Yellowhead 70% 11% 10% 5% 5%
Abbotsford 50% 30% 6% 11% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 41% 28% 19% 12%
Burnaby South 23% 24% 35% 10% 8%
Cariboo--Prince George 40% 29% 19% 10% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 42% 34% 12% 10% 2%
Chilliwack--Hope 45% 31% 11% 11% 3%
Cloverdale--Langley City 37% 42% 7% 12% 2%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 35% 31% 18% 11% 4%
Courtenay--Alberni 31% 19% 27% 21% 2%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 26% 21% 25% 26% 2%
Delta 35% 45% 6% 11% 2%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 20% 25% 24% 29% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 32% 43% 13% 10% 2%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 40% 29% 19% 10% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 42% 43% 7% 6% 2%
Kootenay--Columbia 40% 17% 28% 13% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 45% 35% 4% 13% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 38% 34% 13% 12% 2%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 25% 16% 19% 38% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 23% 26% 32% 13% 5%
North Island--Powell River 29% 23% 29% 17% 2%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 42% 27% 18% 11% 3%

BC North Vancouver 29% 53% 0% 16% 2%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 35% 30% 21% 12% 2%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 33% 28% 25% 11% 2%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
55% 22% 8% 11% 4%
Richmond Centre 47% 38% 3% 11% 2%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 22% 14% 1% 62% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 30% 17% 39% 11% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 33% 26% 28% 11% 2%
South Surrey--White Rock 44% 40% 1% 12% 3%
Steveston--Richmond East 41% 41% 3% 11% 3%
Surrey Centre 23% 42% 21% 11% 2%
Surrey--Newton 18% 52% 17% 10% 2%
Vancouver Centre 18% 53% 12% 13% 3%
Vancouver East 13% 28% 40% 18% 2%
Vancouver Granville 17% 31% 9% 11% 2% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 23% 27% 35% 11% 3%
Vancouver Quadra 27% 56% 3% 12% 2%
Vancouver South 35% 46% 6% 10% 2%
Victoria 15% 24% 22% 37% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky29%
Country51% 1% 17% 2%
Yukon 26% 48% 14% 9% 2%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 20% 43% 25% 9% 2%

Nunavut 27% 42% 21% 8% 2%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats