SEMINAR PRESENTATION

On
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON ROUTINE
IMMUNIZATION OF CHILDREN IN GUSAU
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
(A CASE STUDY OF GUSAU LOCAL GOVERNMENT SECRETARIAT FROM 2005-2015)

By

YUSHA’U ALIYU MAIZARE 1707401049

ANAS MUHAMMAD 1707401047
BELLO ISAH 1807411001

A SEMINAR PAPER PRESENTATION SUBMITTED TO THE

DEPARTMENT OF MATHS AND STATISTICS, SCHOOL OF SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY, ABDU GUSAU POLYTECHNIC TALATA MAFARA
ZAMFARA STATE

IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR DIPLOMA

(ND) IN MATHS AND STATISTICS.

OCTOBER 2019.

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 ABSTRACT

This research project is done with statistical analysis using two way,

ANOVA to analyzes the data collected from Gusau local government

council under national program on immunization (NPI) (From 2005-

2015) and to determine the extent at which Gusau local government

has succeeded in controlling the outbreak of the epidemic within the

community it serve. The research project is also used under the study

has effect on the children and to forecast the number data with the

help of statistical software called Minitab. It would also give

suggestion on how to make the program succeed in Gusau local

government.

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INTRODUCTION
Thousand of children died in this country and soon disabled as a result
of disease which can be preventable by vaccination. This leads to the
establishment of expanded program on immunization by the federal
government in 1980. The federal government reintroduces the program
again in 1984 because of some set back experienced from the initial
program. This brought about changes in the management of the diseases
like diphtheria polio, tetanus, tuberculosis, measles and whopping cough.
The aims and objectives of expanded program on immunization (E.P.I) is to
ensure that all children under the age of two (2) are immunized against child
killer disease. This program is also intended to immunize pregnant women
against tetanus, this will reduce the rate at which the children contact these
deadly diseases thereby reducing, infant mortality rate. To achieve these
aim, an enlightenment campaigns were carried out for the nursing mother on
the essence of immunization exercise. The programas was launched in all
the states throughout the country and successfully launched in all the local
government areas, the program was launched in Talata Mafara in August
1986, because of the success that the government had on these program
and for more improvement the name was changed to National program on
immunization (N.P.I) instead of the former “expanded program on
immunization”
Immunization is therefore, the prevention against disease and it is also
and effective tools to reducing infant mortality rate through vaccination.
Immunization service delivery comprise of two 92) categories namely;
i. Supplemental immunization services
ii. Routine immunization services

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 1. Supplemental Immunization Service: is simply the additional
prevention against diseases.
2. Routine Immunization Service: an effective routine immunization
service means that the service of immunization are available to all the
communities in a sustainable and equitable manner. It is essential that
all primary health facilities belonging to government and non-
government should commence the provision of routine immunization
service. Routine immunization is conducted monthly initially but rapidly
progressing to weekly session.

COLLECTING OF DATA
The source of the data to be used in this project research is a documentary that is
recorded from the local government of Gusau Zamfara State.
DATA
Data are raw fact in form of figure, text, object, or element obtained from observation
or experiment from which conclusion can be drawn.
Statistical data is however classified into two groups namely:
i. Primary data
ii. Secondary data.
i. Primary data: the term primary source of data collection refers to the
statistical tools or materials. Which the investigator originates for the
enquiry at hand in other word, primary data these are data collected by the
investigator directly by himself or herself for a specific purpose. This may
however. Br through interview observation or questionnaire
Direct interview: This is a method of data collection where the interviewer through
personal contact or telephone conversation could demand oral answers to the

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prepared questions from the respondents. These answers could later e compiled as
data.
Questionnaire: is a method of data collection in which the form containing series of
question called questionnaire is sent by post or self-deliveryto every member of the
sample or the population in which they would be required to fill it and return the
completed questionnaire to the investigation for analysis.
Observation: Is the classic method of scientific enquire it is a systematic method of
collecting data that are used in all disciplines and in particular for controlled
experiment
Secondary data: Refers to data which does not originate from the current
investigation but rather from records, obtained by someone by someone else.
The source of data used in this study is secondary data and I was extracted
from the Gusau Local Government. The numbers of children that are routinely
immunized monthly and for the six years types of vaccine used were recorded.
PRESENTATION OF DATA
Usually, when a data is collected, it must be presented in some ways, before
much sense can made out of it. This include pictorial presentation, tabular, diagram
and chart presentation, tabular, diagram and chart presentation. This is made for easy
comprehension and to make the data clear illustrated.
DESCRIPTION OF DATA
This section deal with immunization of children in Gusau Local Government
area. Further dosses of vaccines, which are given from time to time to keep the body
free from disease are called boosters.
Conclusively, immunization is prevention against disease in certain cases
protection against disease is short lived and such a situation further dose of vaccine
have to be repeated, such situation are however very rare.

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ANALYSIS OF VARIANCES
This defines as a method whereby the total variation present in a set of data is
partitioned into two or more components associated with each of these components
is a specific source of variation, so that in these sources to the total variation.
Unlike the other test which compares only one or two means, analysis of variance
popularly called (anova) allows us to compare two or more population or samples
means simultaneously.
There are two types of analysis of variance
1. One-way ANOVA test: this test the difference or compares many means. It
actually tests for any significant difference between groups or set of data.
2. Two-way ANOVA tests: this in addition to the above identifies significant
difference within the various group.
Decision rule: accept null hypothesis (Ho) if the calculated value is less than the
tabulate value otherwise reject i.e. if the calculated value is greater than the
tabulated value you reject Null hypothesis (Ho) and accept alternative hypothesis
(Hi).
One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA)
Assume than an experiment consist of a treatment with ɳ replicates. The data of
the single factor experiment can be written as follows:
Treatment Totals Average
1. Y11, y12,.... y1ɳ y1. y1
2. y21,y22,….y2ɳ y2. y2
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
a. yal;ya2,….,yam ya ya
y.. Y

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 n a yi
Note: yi=  j  yij, y..   i  1ij ,y..  and yi, 
n
i  1, 2,., a

Model: the above observation can be described by a linear mode as follows

yij=   ai  eij for i=1,2,..,a, and j= 1,2…,n
 Where Yij is the random variable describing the Ijth observation
 µ is the overall mean
 ai is the ith treatment effect
 eij is the random error component-N (0,o2)

Hypothesis
 Ho: µ1=µ2=…µa
 Ho: µ1 ≠ µj f or i µ j

One-way ANOVA table, it is usual to summarize calculations for sum of squares in

the table if analysis of variance called ANOVA table as given below:
Sources of Sum of Degree of Mean Squares F – ratio
Variation Squares (SS) freedom (MS)
Between SST a 1 MST
SST MST
a 1 MSE
samples
Within SSE n a SSE
SSF
na
samples
Total SST n 1
Sum of square identify:
a n y
 SS1   1  1yija, y..  Where N = an
i  N
a y2 y2
 SSTreat -  = 1 N 
i N
 SS1-SSTotal-SS treatment
 SST SSE + SS TRT

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Decision Rule
 Reject Ho if the value of Fcal>Ftab Where Ftab=Fa.(a-1)a(n-1)

Two-way ANOVA Table

Treatment Block
1 2 ..... B Total Average
1 Y11, Y12 ….. Yib Y1 y1
2 y21 y22 y2b y2 y2

A ya1 ya2 yab ya ya

Total y1 y2 yb y
Average y1 y2 yb Y

a yi a yi yj yi a
Note: yi=  yi  1yij , yi  y. j    1yij , y.1  yi  y.1  y  
j b j a a a i 1

y
y.j and y..= N  ab and i=1,2,…,1,j=1,2,….b
N

Model: th above observations can be described by the linear mode as follow

Yij=µ+ţ+βj+£ f or i= 1,2,….,a and j=1,2,…,b
Where
 Y ij is the random variable denolting the (ij)th observation
 ţis is the (j)th block effect
 βis is the (j)th block effect
 Ɛijis the random error component having a normal distribution with mean zero
and constant variancr

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Hypothesis
 Ho:µ1= µ2=….=µa
 Ho: µi≠ µj f or I ≠ j

Sources of Sum of Degree of Mean squares F-ratio

variation Squares (SS) freedom (MS)
Between SST a-1 MSTrt=
SSTrt MSTrt
a 1 MSE
samples
BLOCK SSBlock b-1 MSBlock-

Where:
a a y2
  j  1 b  1yij 2,  N Where N=abm
a y 2i y 2
 SSTreat   1 
j a N

a y 2i y 2
 SSBlock   1 
b a N

 SSE=SSTotal-SS treatment-SS Block

 SST SSE+SS TRT+SSBlock

Reject Rule:
 Reject Ho if the value of F cal>Ftab. Where Ftab=Fa (a-1)(b-1)

3.6 Data presentation

The table below shows the number of children immunized on various forms
of children killer disease from year 2005-2015.

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 Year B.C.G D.P.T Oral polio Measles Tetanus Total
2005 459 682 399 1129 1310 3979
2006 787 395 947 1229 2155 5473
2007 979 967 937 999 1873 5185
2008 914 745 4355 2620 1120 9754
2009 716 436 1355 2804 1926 7237
2010 497 298 2156 2520 2529 7991
2011 415 731 651 588 409 2794
2012 429 955 730 681 424 3219
2013 455 927 858 608 493 3345
2014 749 1098 1098 962 949 4656
2015 840 1116 1116 872 814 4784
Total 7,244 8,080 14,302 15,012 13,779 58417

DATA ANALYSIS

Below shows the analysis of two ways ANOVA of No. of disease versus year,
disease name

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Looking at the plot above, it can be observed that the residual of the model scattered
below and above the zero mean. This means that the residual of the model are
homosedostic and of course normally distributed with zero mean and constant
variance

Looking at the plot above, it can be observed that most of the data points are very
close to the fitted line. This means that the residuals of the model are nor,ally
distributed. According to Bowerman (2013), the closer to the fitted line the
residual points are, the better the model.
___________ 29-Dec-16 2:39:00 AM _________________________________

Welcome to Minitab, Press F1 for help

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Two-Way ANOVA: NO. OF DISEASE versus YEAR, DISEASE NAME
Source DF SS MS F P
YEAR 10 9546426 954643 2.25 0.034
DISEASE NAME 4 5001904 1250476 2.95 0.032
Error 40 16969962 424249
Total 54 31515292
S = 652,3 R-sq = 46.16 R-sq(adj) = 27.313
INTERPRETATION OF TWO WAY ANOVA
Since the P-value (0.034)>a(0.05). the hypothesis cannot be rejected at 0.05 level of
statistical significance, it must therefore be concluded that there is no significance
difference between the routine immunization of children die to years, however since
the P. value (0.034)a(0.05) the H1 is accepted and conclude that there is no
significance difference between routine immunization of children killer disease due
to diseases

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SUMMARY
This project is design to show the statistical analysis on routine immunization
of children in Gusau Zamfara State.
The two-way ANOVA is used to determine the relationship between the
children killer disease and the five various vaccine used, by mini-tab statistical
software to analyzed the data and conclude that there is no significant different
between the number of children immunized with five various vaccine used due to
disease.
CONCLUSION
This study has been successful implementation of national program on
immunization (NPI) at Gusau Local government for year 2005 – 2015
The study has find out that there is no significance different between the number of
children immunize within child killer disease by the vaccine use. Also from the
analysis it was made clear that number of children immunize from 2005-2015 are
increasing every year. This gives an insight that the public are more responding to
the progress of the program.
An attempt to make future forecast the number of children likely to be
immunized at future data yield no positive result. This could be attributed to the
nature of data.
Finally, one can conclude that the program has been successful in Gusau local
government Zamfara state as it has reduce infant mortality rate.

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RECOMMENDATION
The greatest determinant for success in the program is the public awareness
especially on the part of mothers; the campaign should therefore be intensified to get
the grass roots to advocate the mother, particularly rural areas that they need to
immunize their mother children against diseases.
The government fir the health workers especially for those that are posted to
villages to enable them to perform as expected among the facilities needed are motor
vehicles to enable them reach every hooks and corner of the area, provision of
accommodation and provision of storage facilities to enable the local health unit
store enough vaccine.

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 REFERENCES
Araoye M.O (2004): Research Methodology with Statistics for heal and social
sciences: Nathadex Publish, Ilorin.

Danniel W. W (2006): Biostatistics: A foundation for analysis in Health Sciences 7th

Edition, Vikas pub. House Ltd, New Delhi.

Mallam Kabiru Gamagiwa (2015), Lecturer Note on Design and Analysis of

Experiment (Unpublished).

Mallam Suraju A. Shinkafi (2016) Lecture Note on Economic and Social Statistics
(Unpublished).

Singha P. (2002); Introductory Text on Biostatistics 3rd Edition Abdullahi Bello

Dabco Investment Ltd. Kaduna.

G.E.P Box and G.M Jekins (1994): Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control ,
3rd Edition, Prentice Hall.

J.D Cryer (1986). Time Series Analysis, Dubbury Press.

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