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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Available online
Available online at
at www.sciencedirect.com
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Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

ScienceDirect
Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000
Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000
Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000
Procedia
ProcediaEngineering 211(2017)
Engineering 00 (2018)000–000
1034–1042

System dynamics analysis for petrochemical enterprise fire safety

2017 8th International Conference on Fire Science and Fire Protection Engineering
System dynamics (on theanalysis
Development forofsystem
petrochemical
Performance-based Fire enterprise
Code) fire safety
System dynamics analysis forsystem
petrochemical enterprise fire safety
System
System dynamics dynamics analysis
analysis forsystem
Ya ZHANG，Ming-guang
for petrochemical
petrochemical
ZHANG* , Cheng-jiang
enterprise
enterprise fire safety
QIAN fire safety
Jiangsu Key Laboratory ofYa ZHANG，Ming-guang
Hazardous
system
system
Chemicals Safety and Control, ZHANG*
College , Cheng-jiang
of Safety Science QIAN
and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing,
Ya ZHANG，Ming-guang ZHANG* , Cheng-jiang QIAN
210009, China
Ya ZHANG，Ming-guang ZHANG* , Cheng-jiang QIAN
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing,
Ya ZHANG，Ming-guang ZHANG* , Cheng-jiang QIAN
210009,
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, China
College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing,
Jiangsu
Abstract Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, College
210009, of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing,
China
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, College
210009, of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing,
China
210009, China
Abstract
To study the changes of fire safety system in oil tank storage area. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of fire safety in oil tank
Abstract
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Keywords: 2017.
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Keywords: Chemical park; petrochemical enterprise; fire safety; system dynamics; sensitivity; simulation model
of ICFSFPE 2017.
Keywords: Chemical park; petrochemical enterprise; fire safety; system dynamics; sensitivity; simulation model
1. Introduction
Keywords: Chemical park; petrochemical enterprise; fire safety; system dynamics; sensitivity; simulation model
Keywords: Chemical park; petrochemical enterprise; fire safety; system dynamics; sensitivity; simulation model
1. Introduction
Because of its own characteristics, petrochemical enterprises have a great danger of fire safety, and fire safety accidents
1. Introduction
often cause great harm. Therefore, the fire safety of petrochemical enterprises not only involves a complex task at all levels
1. Introduction
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*system [3]. author. Tel.: +86 13815892792.
Corresponding
system [3].
E-mail address: mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn (M. Zhang).
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 13815892792.
E-mail
* address: mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn
Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 13815892792. (M. Zhang).
* 1877-7058 © mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn
Corresponding
E-mail address: 2018 The
author. Authors.
Tel.: Published (M.
+86 13815892792. by Elsevier
Zhang). Ltd.
* Corresponding
Peer-review
E-mail author.responsibility
address:under Tel.: +86 13815892792.
of the organizing
mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn committee of ICFSFPE 2017
(M. Zhang).
E-mail address: mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn (M. Zhang).
10.1016/j.proeng.2017.12.107
 Ya ZHANG et al. / Procedia Engineering 211 (2018) 1034–1042 1035
Ya ZHANG et al / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

From the existing literature, it is mainly from qualitative analysis to discuss the fire safety of chemical enterprises. In this
paper, we use the theory of system dynamics to discuss the related problems of fire safety in chemical enterprises by
combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Based on the characteristics of chemical enterprises and the theory of
integrated application system dynamics. This paper establishes a model based on the analysis of personnel training, fire
control facilities, fire control management and technical level on the impact of fire safety level. According to the simulation
results, the corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, which is of great significance to
realize the effective prevention and control of chemical enterprise fire and protect people’s life and property.
This paper mainly studies the level of fire safety based on personnel consciousness, equipment and facilities, fire safety
management and technical level as the main factors, and establishes the following diagram.

Fire safety level of petrochemical enterprise

Personnel Fire Fire Technical

awareness facilities management level

Fig.1.Structural model of fire safety level

The second chapter introduces the basic theory (system dynamics and fire safety theory) used in this paper. The third
chapter introduces the analysis and construction of the influencing factors of fire safety in petrochemical enterprises. The
fourth chapter introduces the construction of fire safety simulation model of petrochemical enterprises. The fifth chapter
takes the Nanjing Luhe Chemical Industry Park as an example to simulate the system dynamics.

2. Basic theory
2.1. System dynamics theory

System dynamics is a cross-disciplinary new discipline that recognizes and resolves system problems and is a subject of
analytical information feedback systems. It is a branch of management disciplines and mathematical systems, but also a
horizontal discipline used to communicate in the fields of nature and social sciences.
System Dynamics (SD), appeared in 1956, is the founder of the United States Massachusetts Institute of Technology Jay.
W. Forreste Professor, in 1958 he analyzed the production management and inventory management and other enterprise
problems when the system simulation Method, which was originally called industrial dynamics.
Vensim simulation software is a visual model tool, the user can define the dynamic system, and its file to save, but also
can define the model, the system simulation, simulation analysis and optimization of the system [4].
Using SD to analyze all kinds of complex problems, the following four steps must be followed:

Identify the final results and Model Model test Model

causes simplification optimization

Petrochemical enterprise fire safety system is a large number of factors, large scale, complex internal structure of the
system, but also a multi-input, multi-output, multi-interference, multi-time-varying dynamic system. Fire safety system is an
organic whole of personnel training, fire control facilities, fire control management and technical level. At the same time,
fire safety system can be regarded as a subsystem of disaster forming subsystem and disaster management subsystem.
Among them, the two systems and subsystems between the various factors of mutual influence, interrelated, the existence of
multiple internal feedback structure, is a continuous production and development process. It is generally believed that the
basic structural unit of the system is a feedback loop, that is, the state of the coupling system, the rate (or decision) and the
information of a loop.

2.2. Fire safety theory

The fire stems from the loss of control in time and space. The process involves four components, such as matter,
momentum, energy and chemistry. From the point of scientific research object, the fire process essence refers to the three-
 1036 Ya ZHANG et al. / Procedia Engineering 211 (2018) 1034–1042
Ya ZHANG et al / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

dimensional, multi-phase, multi-scale, unsteady and nonlinear dynamic processes of each component under complex and
changing environmental conditions.
Based on the characteristics of the temperature of the fire - time curve, as shown in figure 2, the development of the fire
can be divided into three stages: the early stage of fire (OA), the all-round development stage (AC), phase out (C)
Tem
pera
ture

A
0 Time

Fig.2.fire temperature - time curve

 The initial stage is the best time to fire and evacuate people.
 The all-round development stage, chemical raw materials, dangerous chemicals after a certain period of time, the
combustion range continues to expand, the temperature continues to rise, when the temperature reaches a certain
value, resulting in the majority of the tank or pipe combustible fire burning, this phenomenon is called crashing.
The explosion of the situation indicates that the fire has entered a comprehensive stage of development.
 In the phase of extinction, when the fire enters the stage of full development stage, there is less combustible fuel to
burn, and the fuel surface is burned with carbon ash and the burning rate decreases, and the temperature gradually
decreases.

3. Analysis and construction of influencing factors of fire safety in petrochemical enterprises

3.1. Construction of fire safety causality

The level of fire safety in petrochemical enterprises is mainly affected by personnel training, fire facilities, fire
management and technical level. Through the impact of fire safety factors and circuit analysis, the use of system dynamics
simulation software Vensim, chemical park fire safety+causal diagram shown in Figure 3.
Fire control input Fire efficiency
+
A
Personnel fire
Staff training
+ training level
+
B
+ Fire facilities
Fire service level
Petrochemical + purchase + +
+ Safety level of
enterprises fire safety +chemical industry park
investment C +
+ Fire safety Fire safety
management + management level
D
+ Technical
improvement The technical level
+

Fig.3.causal map construction

From Figure 3 we can see that there are four causal loops:
 Ya ZHANG et al. / Procedia Engineering 211 (2018) 1034–1042 1037
Ya ZHANG et al / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

1）Positive feedback loop A: setrochemical enterprises fire safety investment↑–staff training↑–personnel fire training
level↑–safety level of petrochemical enterprises↑–fire efficiency↑–fire control input↑–petrochemical enterprises fire
safety investment↑.
2）Positive feedback loop B: petrochemical enterprises fire safety investment↑–fire facilities purchase↑–fire service
level↑–safety level of petrochemical enterprises↑–fire efficiency↑–fire control input↑–petrochemical enterprises fire
safety investment↑.
3）Positive feedback loop C: petrochemical enterprises fire safety investment↑–fire safety management↑–fire safety
management level safety level of petrochemical enterprises ↑ –fire efficiency ↑ –fire control input ↑ –petrochemical
enterprises fire safety investment↑.
4）Positive feedback loop D: petrochemical enterprises fire safety investment↑–technical improvement↑–the technical
level↑–safety level of petrochemical enterprises↑–fire efficiency↑–fire control input↑–petrochemical enterprises fire
safety investment↑

3.2. Analysis on influencing factors of fire safety

1) A loop analysis of factors. In the petrochemical enterprises fire safety factors, the human factor is particularly
prominent. If the safety awareness of personnel is weak, the serious consequences of the accident will be expanded. Regular
staff fire training can effectively raise people’s safety awareness and further enhance the park’s fire safety level. The level
of fire safety to meet expectations requires a process. With the improvement of fire safety level, the fire efficiency of
chemical industry has been continuously improved, and the fire input has gradually increased, and finally the positive
feedback of personnel awareness has been increased.
2) B loop analysis of factors. In addition to the personnel safety awareness and fire protection design factors, the good
condition of fire control facilities is also an important factor affecting fire safety in chemical industry park. At this stage, the
chemical enterprise park fire management is not perfect, leading to the park enterprises of automatic sprinkler system, the
importance of automatic fire alarm system can not be reflected. In addition, evacuation indicators, fire hydrants, emergency
lighting and other firefighting facilities in the daily maintenance is not in place, fire work nobody, no one asked the situation
is widespread. These problems often cause damage or failure of fire facilities in the park business, often leading to
ineffective control and fighting after the fire. Therefore, to strengthen the park's fire facilities to improve the level of fire
safety is essential, when the fire safety level increased, fire efficiency and fire safety will gradually increase, and ultimately
the formation of positive feedback (fire facilities continue to improve).
3) C loop analysis of factors. Petrochemical enterprises fire safety management issues can’t be ignored. Unclear fire
safety main responsibility, imperfect firefighting facilities maintenance management will expand the fire when the
casualties and property damage. However, in the actual project, many enterprises due to staffing is not complete, do not set
the fire work person in charge, which led to no one responsible for enterprise fire and fire facilities without maintenance
management. Perfect fire safety management can greatly improve the level of fire safety. With the improvement of fire
safety level, gradually increase the fire input, fire efficiency will gradually increase, and ultimately the formation of positive
feedback (fire safety management continues to strengthen).
4) D loop analysis of factors. Based on the characteristics of fire in petrochemical enterprises, there are still many
technical obstacles to fire safety, including flammable materials, evacuation difficulties, toxic leaks, fire lane setting
problems and water supply problems. Improve the level of enterprise technology can fundamentally enhance the chemical
industry park fire safety level. With the improvement of fire safety level, fire efficiency and fire control interaction, and
ultimately the formation of positive feedback (fire technology continues to strengthen).

4. Construction of fire safety simulation model of petrochemical enterprises

4.1. System dynamics model construction

Based on the principle and method of system dynamics, combined with the relationship between four feedback loops (A,
B, C, D loops), the fire safety system model of petrochemical enterprises is constructed, as shown in Fig.4
 1038 Ya ZHANG et al. / Procedia Engineering 211 (2018) 1034–1042
Ya ZHANG et al / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

Personality Influence coefficient of

Delay 1 Unit fire efficiency Delay 3
awareness coefficient fire safety management
level

Personnel Fire safety

awareness level management level
Reduced rate of Management level Management level
Increased rate of increases rate reduces rate
personnel awareness Fire
personnel awareness
safety
level C
A

Personnel fire Fire safety management

training investment investment
Delay 2
Fire
control
input
Technological
Level of fire D level
fighting facilities Technique Technique
Facility increase Facility reduction increase rate reduction rate
rate rate
B
The rate of
fire-fighting materials
Unit fire return on
investment ratio Technology Technical influence Delay 4
Fire facilities impact degree
investment
coefficient Fire facilities
investment

Fig.4.SD causality of fire safety level of chemical enterprise

4.2. Variables summary of SD

The system model diagram involves multiple state variables, auxiliary variables, rate variables, implicit variables, and
constants. Table 1 shows the results.

Table 1 Variables summary of fire safety system model of chemical enterprise

Variable type Variable name

State variables Personnel awareness level A, Level of fire facilities B, Fire safety management level C, Technological level D

Auxiliary Level-one Personality awareness coefficient A1, Personnel fire training investment A2, Fire facilities impact coefficient B1, Fire
variables auxiliary facilities investment B2, Influence coefficient of fire safety management C1, Fire safety management investment C2,
variables Technology investment D1, Technical influence degree D2
Level-two Fire control input A21, Fire safety level A12, Unit fire efficiency level A22, The rate of fire-fighting materials B11
auxiliary
variables
Rate variables Increased rate of personnel awareness E1, Reduced rate of personnel awareness E2, Facility increase rate E3,

Facility reduction rate E4, Management level increases rate E5, Management level reduces rate E6, Technique increase
rate E7, Technique reduction rate E8
Implicit variables <Time>

Constants Delay 1 F1, Delay 2 F2, Delay 3 F3, Delay 4 F4

4.3. SD simulation equation construction

Fire safety level of chemical enterprise

level A4
Technical
facilities A2
Fire

A3
management
Fire
A1
awareness
Personnel

Fig.5.Structural model of fire safety level

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Ya ZHANG et al / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

Fire safety level mainly involves personnel awareness (A1), equipment and facilities (A2), fire safety management (A3),
technical level (A4). Application of analytic hierarchy process 1 ~ 9 scale method to calculate the fire safety level of the
main impact of the weight of the factors, as shown in Figure 5 petrochemical enterprises fire safety level structure model
and Table 1 criteria layer attribute measure.
Based on the structure model of fire safety level of chemical enterprises, the weight of the main influencing factors of the
architectural layout was calculated by applying analytic hierarchy process 1 ~ 9 scale method.

Table 1 Attribute measure criterion layer

P A1 A2 A3 A4
A1 1 5 5 3
A2 1/5 1 1 1/3
A3 1/5 1 1 1/3
A4 1/3 3 3 1

According to the conversion formula, available:

 k
 k  1 Ａij  k

 （1）
Pij  0.5 Ａij  1 ,i  j

 1 Ａij 
1
 k  1 k

Usually take β = 2. Personnel consciousness weight WA =（0.23，0.07，0.05，0.14）

Similarly available:
Equipment and facilities WB =（0.11，0.23，0.23，0.11）
Fire safety management WC =（0.093，0.093，0.05）
Technical level WD =（0.3，0.09，0.14，0.03）
The comprehensive state of fire safety level of chemical enterprise WS =（0.12,0.12,0.45,0.31）
Through the analysis of the main influence factors, the Vistim software is used to establish the mathematical logic
relationship between the variables in the system model simulation. The first order linear function, the table function and the
exponential function are used to construct the simulation equation. As shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2 State variables relationships

Num Variable Relationship Annotation

1 A ∑(E1-E2)
2 B ∑(E3-E4) Reference to the "Complex System Risk Transmission and Control" in the "safety and reliability of the relationship
3 C ∑(E5-E6) between" chapter
4 D ∑(E7-E8)

Table 3 Major variables relationships

Num Variable Relationship

1 A1 DELAY1 (A2* A1*B1, T1)
2 A2 SMOOTH (A* O, T1)
3 B1 SMOOTH (B*B2*B1*C1, T3)
4 B2 A11* A12
5 C1 A2* (A1^2) * + A1
6 C2 A2*(A1^2) * A1
7 A21 A2*A1
8 A12 A1*O
9 A22 LOOKUP（Time）
10 D1 RANDOM UNIFORM (0, 1 , 0.25 )
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11 D2 DELAY1 (A2* A1*A3, T1)

5. Application and analysis of model simulation

According to the requirements of system dynamics modeling, the validity of the model should be tested. The relevant
contents include the suitability of the model scope, the validity of the model structure and the authenticity of the model
parameters. The analysis of the coupling between the fire safety system and the system dynamics of the enterprise in the
park has been analyzed, which shows that the dynamic model of the fire safety system in the park has a good range
suitability. In the construction of the model, the element structure of the model and the causal feedback relation of the model,
and the related mathematical relations can match well, so the model structure is also in line with the requirements. In terms
of parameter validation test, to be able to reproduce the dynamic evolution behavior of logistics enterprise fire safety,
through the chain parameters show the actual situation as far as possible, in the model parameter is set to do with the actual
process of logistics enterprise fire safety system, the parameter of the dimension, all variables of the model, parameters,
initial value, the mathematical relationship equation satisfies the requirement of dimensional consistency.

5.1. Background introduction

On March 27, 2012, a fire broke out at a simple plant in a chemical plant in nanjing liuhe chemical industrial park in
nanjing, jiangsu province. On April 21, 2015, at 6:07 a.m., an explosion occurred in ethylene glycol t-430 tower, a
petrochemical co., LTD., located in nanjing chemical industrial park. A worker died in a fire at nanjing jinling chemical
factory in nanjing, jiangsu province, at around 11:20pm on March 13, 2017. The above accidents urgently indicate that the
fire safety level of nanjing petrochemical enterprises needs to be improved. The author analyzes the fire safety system
modeling in the background of nanjing petrochemical enterprises park.

5.2. Simulation analysis of the influence factors of fire safety level of petrochemical enterprises

Combined with the research data, the use of the simulation model has been built, Nanjing Luhe Petrochemical enterprise
fire safety level simulation diagram shown in Figure 6, Figure 7.
（1）Fire safety training investment - fire safety level
Fire safety level
50% 75% 95% 100%
Fire safety level
Fire safety level
60 60

45
45
30

30
15

15 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Week)
Fire safety level : personnel fire training investment （ 0.9）
0 Fire safety level : personnel fire training investment （ 0.7）
0 25 50 75 100 Fire safety level : personnel fire training investment （ 0.5）
Fire safety level : personnel fire training investment （ 0.3）
Time (Week) Fire safety level : personnel fire training investment （ 0.1）

(a) Sensitivity analysis of fire safety level (b) correlation analysis of fire safety level

Fig.6.Simulation analysis of fire safety training investment - fire safety level

1） Sensitivity analysis
Set the safety training input to the initial value of 0.5, the sensitivity analysis interval (0.4,0.7).
As can be seen from Fig. 6 (a), since the middle yellow area is larger than the rest of the color area, the safety training
investment is highly sensitive to the fire safety level, so that the correlation can be continued as follows Show.
2） Correlation analysis
The fire safety training input was divided into five levels: 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9, and the correlation analysis results
were shown in figure 6 (b).
Explanation: As shown in Figure 5, with the increase in corporate fire safety training investment, enterprises have the
conditions to increase the staff’s material incentives, so employees improve the safety awareness, and further enhance the
tank area fire safety level. But blindly increase the incentive or investment funds, will have a negative impact on the level of
fire safety. Therefore, increase fire safety training investment should also strengthen supervision, so that spiritual incentives
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and material incentives combined. Indicating that the level of enterprise fire safety can not only focus on the one hand and
ignore the other aspects of the building. Different levels of fire training safety input are obvious to the fire safety level of
petrochemical enterprises. Therefore, when the fire safety training investment is higher, the higher the level of chemical
safety of chemical enterprises.
Conclusion: fire safety level and safety training investment were positively correlated.
（2）Fire safety management-fire safety level
Fire safety level Fire safety level
50% 75% 95% 100%
100
Fire safety level
60
75

45 50

25
30

0
15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Week)
Fire safety level : Fire safety management（ 0.95）
Fire safety level : Fire safety management（ 0.8）
0 Fire safety level : Fire safety management（ 0.7）
0 25 50 75 100 Fire safety level : Fire safety management（ 0.55）
Time (Week) Fire safety level : Fire safety management（ 0.4）

(c) Sensitivity analysis of fire safety level (d) correlation analysis of fire safety level

Fig.7.Simulation analysis of fire safety management- fire safety level

1） Sensitivity analysis
The initial value of Fire safety management was set at 0.55, and the sensitivity analysis interval was (0.45, 0.65).
As shown in figure 7 (c) can be obtained: as the middle regional bandwidth than the rest of the color slants yellow, fire
safety management of fire safety level of the degree of sensitivity is stronger, to continue to analyze its relevance, as shown
in the following chapters.
2） Correlation analysis
The Fire safety management is 5 levels, respectively: 0.4, 0.55, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.95. The correlation analysis results are
shown in figure 7 (d).
Explanation: The basic object of fire safety management is human, is based on the human body to start. People are the
main body of security management (managers), but also the object of security management (managers). Everyone in a
certain level of management, both the management of subordinates (people) or things, but also by the higher management,
from top to bottom to form a human-oriented management chain. Therefore, leaving people, it does not matter safety
management. From the enterprise security management promote the process of analysis, the promotion enterprise's safety
management is the process of a continuum, must pay attention to the unity of short-term and long-term goals, the goal of
each stage must be subject to the final goal, improve the level of fire safety. With the continuous improvement of fire safety
management, the fire safety level of enterprises will be improved. Therefore, the faster the fire control growth rate, the
higher the fire safety level will be.

6. Conclusion
Based on the principle and method of system dynamics, this paper makes a modeling and simulation of fire safety system
of nanjing liuhe petrochemical enterprise, and obtains the following conclusions:
(1) System dynamics has the characteristics of dealing with the problems such as nonlinearity, complexity, long-term and
time-varying systems, and the petrochemical enterprise fire safety system has obvious system dynamics characteristics, so
we can use the method of system dynamics petrochemical enterprise fire safety system for related research.
(2) There are many factors that affect the fire safety of petrochemical enterprises, and the impact of these factors on fire
safety management is not consistent. In addition, the level of fire safety and these factors were temporally dynamic and non-
linear. The traditional fuzzy evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process and other methods are difficult to reflect the
dynamic and nonlinear characteristics, but the system dynamics is helpful to analyze the complex nonlinear multi-feedback
loop composed of the system, can make reasonable assumptions for system prediction and judgment. Therefore, on the basis
of analyzing the factors that affect the fire safety management of petrochemical enterprises, the system dynamics is used to
build the simulation model of enterprise fire safety system, and then the sensitivity analysis of fire safety management
factors is carried out. Finally, the simulation model provides a theoretical basis for the development of petrochemical
enterprises fire safety countermeasures and improve the petrochemical enterprise fire management.
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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71001051), the Natural
Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (BK 2012824), key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
under Grant (No. 21436006), open subject of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control
(HCSC201304), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China and
Jiangsu Government Scholarship for overseas Studies.

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