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Runoff, sediment load and land use/cover change relationship: the case of
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 International Journal of River Basin Management

ISSN: 1571-5124 (Print) 1814-2060 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/trbm20

Runoff, sediment load and land use/cover change

relationship: the case of Maybar sub-watershed,
South Wollo, Ethiopia

Gebremedhin Tesfaye, Abera Assefa & Desale Kidane

To cite this article: Gebremedhin Tesfaye, Abera Assefa & Desale Kidane (2017) Runoff,
sediment load and land use/cover change relationship: the case of Maybar sub-watershed,
South Wollo, Ethiopia, International Journal of River Basin Management, 15:1, 89-101, DOI:
10.1080/15715124.2016.1239625

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INTL. J. RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT, 2017
VOL. 15, NO. 1, 89–101
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2016.1239625

RESEARCH PAPER

Runoff, sediment load and land use/cover change relationship: the case of Maybar
sub-watershed, South Wollo, Ethiopia
Gebremedhin Tesfayea, Abera Assefab and Desale Kidanec
a
Natural Resource Management Department, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia; bMelkasa Agricultural Research Centre, Adama, Ethiopia; cDepartment
of Geography, Samara University, Samara, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

This study analysed the land-use dynamics and its effects on rainfall–runoff and runoff–sediment Received 1 December 2015
relationships at Maybar sub-watershed, Ethiopia. The study compared land use land cover change Accepted 7 September 2016
(LULCC), runoff and sediment load for 1980s, 1990s and 2000 years. A base map produced from
KEYWORDS
ground base survey, aerial photograph, spot images and field visit/interview had been carried out Rainfall–runoff; sediment
for land cover analysis. Double mass curve with trend curve was used to evaluate the effect of load; land-use dynamics;
LULCC on rainfall–runoff and runoff–sediment yield relationships. The results showed that during double mass curve; Ethiopia
1990s forest land increased while agricultural and grassland decreased, whereas during 2000s
agricultural land increased and forest land decreased. Consequently, the annual slope of trend
curve (STC) of rainfall–runoff and runoff– sediment load during 1980s was more pronounced
compared with 1990s. Similarly, the annual STCs of 2000s were higher than 1990s despite it is not
statistically significant. This implies that, the accumulative annual runoff and sediment load
increases more rapidly from 1982 to 1989 than that from 1992 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2006.
Hence, the runoff and sediment load obtained during 1980s was higher than 1990s and 2000s was
more than 1990s with similar rainfall/runoff. These can be explained by the historic land-use
dynamics. Therefore, in order to reduce soil loss, flood occurrence and sediment load, all concerned
stakeholders such as local governments, planners and farmers should pay attention to apply
appropriate land use and watershed management practices in the studied watershed.

1 Introduction
Agriculture is the main economic activity in the sub-Saharan
Africa (SSA) supporting over 67% of the population, out of
which 60% depends on rain-fed agriculture, generating
30–40% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (Rockström
et al. 2003b). Likewise Ethiopia’s economy is agriculture
based, with a rapidly growing population, severe soil erosion,
dynamic land cover changes and sediment-related problems
due to cropland expansion, overgrazing and over exploitation
of forests (Assen 2005, Tamene et al. 2005, Bantider 2007,
Biratu and Asmamaw 2016). However, the Ethiopian High-
lands are considered to be the water towers of most East
and North African countries, especially for Egypt and
Sudan, with many of the tributaries of various international
rivers originating from these highlands (Haregeweyn et al.
2005, Koch et al. 2012, Asmamaw 2015, Asmamaw 2016).
These areas are characterized by steep slopes, intensively cul-
tivated, high intensity rainfall, a sparse vegetation cover and
significant direct runoff generation leading to accelerated
soil erosion and high risk of ecological degradation (Nyssen
et al. 2007, 2008a, 2008b, Kidane et al. 2012, Asmamaw
2015, Kidane and Alemu 2015). The impacts of excessive sur-
face runoff for downstream water users include a modified
flow regime, increased surface runoff leading to drying up
of springs during the dry season (Bewket and Sterk 2005,
Haregeweyn et al. 2005, Asmamaw 2015). It is estimated
that the trans-boundary rivers that originate from the Ethio-
pian highlands carry about 1.3 billion ton/year of sediment to
the neighbouring countries (MoWR 1993), whereas the Blue
Nile alone carries 131 million ton/year (Betrie et al. 2011). It
is the lack of appropriate in-situ river basin management in
the upstream parts that has led to these rates.
In order to reduce the impact of surface runoff on soil ero-
sion and sedimentation, the Ethiopian government launched
a massive soil conservation programme beginning in the mid-
1970s (Kidane 2014). Between 1976 and 1990, 71,000 ha of
soil and stone bunds, 233,000 ha of hillside terraces for affor-
estation, 12,000 km of check dams in gullied lands,
390,000 ha of closed areas for natural regeneration,
448,000 ha of land planted with different tree species and
526,425 ha of bench terrace interventions have been intro-
duced (Nyssen et al. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015, Asmamaw 2016).
The loss of soil from land surfaces erosion is widespread
globally and adversely affects the productivity of all natural
resources (Hurni 1985, 1988). Sedimentation as an ecological
and environmental phenomenon is increasingly affecting the
sustainable development of human societies in the Ethiopian
highlands (Haregeweyn et al. 2005). Sediment in the Nile
basin mainly originates from the Ethiopian highlands with
large quantities of eroded soil (Kidane 2014). These streams
from frequently alternating dry–wet seasons coupled with
agricultural over-utilization, overgrazing and wood cutting,
are required to sustain livelihoods and housing (Nyssen
et al., 2010, 2011, Setegn et al. 2010). This is resulting in
deforestation and loosening of the soil surface, thus facilitat-
ing and accelerating water erosion.
The change in land use land cover (LULC) alters rainfall,
runoff and sediment relationships. An intensively cultivated
watershed could experience 20-times higher soil loss than
that of a forested watershed both for peak rainfall event and

CONTACT Desale Kidane kidanedesu@gmail.com

© 2016 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research
90 G. TESFAYE ET AL.
for total rainfall duration (Cox et al. 2005). Increased in sedi-
ment deposition at the outlet is a reflection of catchment ero-
sion and deposition processes, which are controlled by terrain
form, soil type, surface cover, drainage networks and rainfall-
related attributes (Tamene et al. 2005, Quilb et al. 2007, Yita-
feru 2007, Teferi et al. 2010). Knowledge of the distribution
and types of land use land cover change (LULCC) are
believed to be important indicators as, agricultural land use
changes can influence soil loss and sediment deposition pro-
cess that may have significant impact on terrestrial ecosys-
tems in the catchment (Jordan et al. 2005). Nationally, the
Soil Conservation Research Programme (SCRP) was
launched in 1981 with the integrated effort of the Ethiopian
government, scientists and development specialists to con-
serve soils and water for improved agricultural land manage-
ment. This study was conducted in one of the five SCRP sites
launched in 1981 in Ethiopia. In this research site, there is a
meteorological station and data like rainfall, runoff and other
climatic data have been generated since 1981. Therefore,
using this information to address issues on LULCC and its
relation with runoff and sediment load accumulation
(which could contribute to the sustainability of highland
environments and the livelihoods of farming communities)
is of paramount importantance. This study was designed to
establish the relationship between land use/land cover change
and sediment load and runoff – rainfall processes during
1980s, 1990s and 2000s in Maybar sub-watershed.
2 Material and methods
2.1 Site description
The Maybar catchment is located in the Amhara National
Regional State, South Wollo Zone, Albuko district, Ethiopia.
It is situated at about 20 km south-east of the city of Dessie
and about 422 km north of Addis Ababa (Figure 1).
Geographically, the study site lies at 11°00′ N and 39°39°E.
The altitude ranges from 1940 to 2850 m above sea level. It
has an area of 94.6 ha, categorized under the ‘Dega’ agro-
Figure 1. Location map of the study area.
climatic zone. The study area is characterized as an erosion
prone, low potential and oxen-plowed cereal belt of the
north-eastern escarpment of the Ethiopian highlands (SCRP
1982).
The area has a temperate sub-humid climate with temp-
erature range from 14.3°C in December to 19.3°C in June.
It consists of Alkaline Olivine basalts and tuffs of the Ashangi
Groups (Paleocene–Oligocene–Miocene), which are part of
the Volcanic Trape series (Weigel 1986). It is characterized
by bimodal rainfall with Belg (small rain between February
and May) and Kremt (the main rainy season between July
and September). The rainfall distribution during the Belg
and Kremit season is between 69.5 and 112.7 mm with
peaks of 140.9 and 287.8 mm in April and August
respectively.
2.2 Methods of data collection and analysis
2.2.1 LULCC analysis
For the analysis of the existing land cover, base data (base
map), aerial photographs and spot images combined with
field visits and observation were used as source of data. The
LULCC analysis for the watershed was employed continu-
ously on a yearly basis, monitored and used to update the
base map originally prepared in 1989 from ground-based sur-
veying (Figure 2). This source of information was sup-
plemented with the help of aerial photographs, spot images
and a field visit for the year 2010–2012. The base map
shows the different land units under different land users
(farmers) and the communal land including forest/woodland,
grassland, homestead and cemetery.
This research had been conducted in the year between
2010 and 2012 by considering three periods (1980s, 1990s
and 2000s). For the 1990s and 2000s, the base maps con-
structed in 1996 and 2006 were considered, whereas a new
map was constructed from aerial photos that was taken in
1986 in combination with interviews of local residents for
the 1980s. The aerial photograph from 1986 was scanned
and referenced using the base map. The patterns and shapes

Figure 2. View of Lake Maybar watershed (a) (Anna 2007), base map developed for the study area in 1989 (b).
Table 1. Land use/land cover classes description.
No Land cover type Description
1 Cultivated land This unit includes areas used for permanently rain-
fed and irrigated cultivation and bare land.
2 Forest land/wood Areas covered with trees forming closed canopy or
land nearly closed canopy (70–100%). This unit also
includes woodlands (60–70% trees mixed with
short bushes and open areas).
3 Open woodlands Areas covered with remnant scattered large trees
and planted trees (10–20%), mainly, Juniperus
procera at different heights and cemetery.
4 Grassland Areas with permanent grass cover, used for grazing;
usually communal and fallow plots.
5 Homestead Areas with settlement, garden around home and
wood lots.
on the photograph were used to identify the cultivated land
from the other land uses. The tree covered areas, which
were categorized as woodland, were mainly identified using
the texture and shape elements of photo interpretation. The
boundary of the different classes were digitized and overlaid
with the base map. In addition, information from local people
had been gathered using the base map of the study area from
1996 to supplement the reconstruction using the aerial photo-
graphs. Besides, the 1996 and 2006 LULCC maps were further
verified during the field visit through interviewing of local
people. For the 2006 map spot image was used as an
additional source of information.
For the analysis of the land cover, three LULCC maps were
projected/transformed to similar coordinate system. The
recoding/reclassification of the different class were performed
and only five classes such as cultivated land, grassland/fallow,
forest/woodland, open woodland and home garden were cre-
ated. Some LULCCs such as bare land were included in the
major land uses because of their small size. The description
of these land cover types is described in Table 1. The reclas-
sified layers were finally dissolved based on modified land
cover types. Area summary of the land cover types was com-
puted for each period.
2.2.2 Rainfall, runoff and sediment load data collection
and analysis
The rainfall, runoff and sediment load data for the periods of
1982–2006 were obtained from Amhara Region Research
Institute, Ethiopia. Precipitation was recorded through two
procedures (continuous and manual). The manual record
includes daily and monthly total. From the rainfall data
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 91
characteristics such as amount, intensity, duration of time
intervals between storm events and erosivity were deter-
mined. The rainfall was collected in the float chamber
where the vertical movement of a float was transmitted into
movement of a pen on the chart up to 10 mm of precipitation.
Then, the chamber was quickly emptied via a siphon and col-
lected in a bucket for monthly total records. Thus, the
monthly cumulative amount was registered on the chart
role for comparison.
At the outlet of the gauged river discharge and sediment
load recorder was installed (Figure 3). The type of float-actu-
ated recorder used to record stream stage is Ott R16 with 24 h
time scale strip charts with resolution of 2 cm gauge interval
and 10 min time interval. The depth of water stage was taken
with float-actuated recorders. Manual stage recording has
been taken place every 08:00am morning local time and
with 10 min interval when the water changes colour and
depth during direct runoff periods during sediment sample
collection.
To measure catchment sediment load, sample of water
using one-litre narrow-mouthed bottles from gauged river
satiation was collected (Figure 3). The collected water was
taken for analysis to the field laboratory. The sediment was
filtered out from the sample using a 75-micron sieve and fil-
tered through a filter paper. The filtrate from the sieve and fil-
ter paper are oven dried and weighed.
A total suspended sediment load concentration was deter-
mined in g/l. The total suspended sediment in ton/day was
calculated using average discharge and suspended sediment
load concentration values. After all these data collected at
the research stations, TESTMAIN software program was
used in order to analyse, interpret and manage the whole
databases.
2.2.3 Statistical data analysis
To evaluate the relationship between land use/land cover
change, rainfall–runoff and runoff–sediment at Maybar
sub-watershed, double mass curve analyses were used. The
procedure to carry out the double mass curve analysis
involves the plotting of successive cumulative annual rainfall
with the cumulative annual runoff collected. In order to com-
pare the change of relationships in different periods, linear
trend curve for each double mass curve was made and the
slope of trend curve (STC) were used to reflect the increased
92 G. TESFAYE ET AL.

Figure 3. Discharge measuring device installed in the study area by SCRP.

speed of runoff or sediment concentration based on rainfall
and runoff.
3 Results and discussion
3.1 LULC change from 1982 to 2006
The proportion and distribution of LULCC types by hectare
and per cent for the year 1986, 1996 and 2006 is presented
in Table 2, and Figures 4 and 5. Of the total study area
(94.4 ha), cultivated land constituted 47.2%, 39.22% and
47.22% in the years 1986, 1996 and 2006, respectively. In
the first period (1986–1996), cultivated land decreased by
5.48 ha (5.8%), while it increased by the same amount
(5.8 ha) in the second period (Table 2). Consequently, the
net change in cultivated land for the 20 years considered in
this study was zero. This result contradicts most reports
from Ethiopia and many other places throughout the devel-
oping world where often rapid and continued agricultural
land expansion is reported at the expense of other land cov-
ers, especially forest land. Bewket (2002) for example has
founded that there was expansion of cultivated lands by
13% during the period 1957–1982, while there was slight
shrinking pattern of about 2% during 1982–1998 in the
North-western Ethiopian highlands, Chemoga Watershed,
in the Blue Nile Basin. Abate and Lemenih (2014) conducted
Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics research in South Western
Ethiopia. They confirmed an increase in agriculture land
and built-up area from 19.16% and 1.46% in 1973 to
52.11% and 3.40% in 1986, 65.60% and 8.88% in 2004,
respectively. The increase in agricultural land and built-up
area was mainly at the expense of forest land, grassland, Riv-
erine forest and bush land. They stated that the increasing
population has been the major possible reason for the
changes. Koch et al. (2012) also stated that the annual LUC
varied between −6% and +360% for different classes. The
impact of land use dynamics on the hydrological response
was observed and shown at the daily discharge, the total
annual runoff and the peak flow.
Similarly, Abebe (2005) reported that there was an
increase of cultivated land by 3714.0 ha (24.2%) during
(1957–1982) while it decreased by 2467.2 ha (16.0%) in the
second period (1982–2001) at Abbay watershed, Blue Nile
basin, Ethiopia. Furthermore, Tadesse (2007) investigated
forest cover change in four districts in south-western rain-
forest for the period between 1973 and 2005, and found a
continuous decline of forest by 67% (2.1% per year). A
similar study by Dessie and Kleman (2007) of the Awassa
watershed revealed 80% (≈4.4% per year) forest cover
decline between 1972 and 2000, compared to 4.3% per
year decline reported by Seifu (1998) for Munessa-
Shashamane forest. Fite (2009) reported forest decline
rate of 1.3% annually for Yayu forest in the southwest
Ethiopia. This implies that forest cover has been declining
due to the expansion of croplands. In most parts, old agri-
cultural lands that exhausted crop production potential are
abandoned to area exclosure as well as tree planting (Zeleke
2000, Bewket 2003, Bantider 2007, Githui et al. 2009,
Shiferaw 2010, Teferi et al. 2010, Wagner et al. 2013,
Tesfaye et al. 2014, Wagesho 2014). Our finding also
agreed with the above reports.
As explained in Table 2, the area under grassland/fallow
was about 30.01 ha (31.8%) in 1986, but it was diminished
to 25.66 ha (27.1%) in 1996 and further to 17.7 ha (18.6%)
in 2006. Of the total grassland cover in the base year, only
17.7 ha (18.6%) remained in this category, while 13.2% was
converted into other land use type in all periods considered.
Between 1986 and 1996, 4.7% (4.41 ha) and between 1996

Table 2. Land use/cover change in the Maybar sub-watershed between 1986 and 2006.
Area
coverage Area coverage Area coverage
(1986) (1996) (2006) Change between 1996 and Change between 2006 and Change between 2006 and
LULC type ha % ha % ha % 1986 in (%) 1996 in (%) 1986 in (%)
Cultivated land 44.7 47.2 39.22 41.4 44.73 47.22 −5.8 5.8 0
Forest/wood 2.44 2.5 19.5 20.6 18.33 19.35 18.1 −1.01 16.85
land
Open wood 15.66 16.5 7.79 8.22 8.02 8.5 −828 −0.28 −8
land
Grass/fallow 30.12 31.8 25.6 27.1 17.7 18.6 −4.7 −8.4 −13.1
Homestead 1.82 1.9 2.55 2.7 5.94 6.3 0.783 3.577 4.36
Total 94.74 100 94.74 100 94.74 100
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 93

Figure 4. Land use map for the year 1986.

Figure 5. Land use map for the year 1996.

94 G. TESFAYE ET AL.

and 2006, 8.5% (7.89 ha) grassland was transformed to 3.2 Rainfall, runoff, and sediment load relationships
other land use/cover types. These indicated that grasslands
3.2.1 Relationship between size of cropland and runoff
had been relatively decreased. The increasing demand for
and sediment load
wood lots and reforestation might have contributed to the
To see the relationship between the area coverage of different
deterioration of grasslands. The result agreed with the find-
agricultural crops and their effect on runoff and sediment
ings of Mammo (2006), which indicated decreasing grazing
load pattern, regression analyses between the two variables
land from 19% (1965) to 16% (1986) and then to 13%
(runoff and sediment load) with area of crop types were
(2006) at Golo-Tiso catchment. Eastern escarpment of
made (Tables 3 and 4). The R 2 value for every regression
Wollo, Ethiopia. Bewket (2002) also supported this report
line was less than 10%. This indicated that there exists a
by showing a decrease in grassland in Chemoga watershed,
weak relation between crop area and runoff (sediment load),
between 1957 and 1998. On the other hand, it differs from
in the sub-watershed for the period 1982–2006. (Figure 6)
Zeleke and Hurni (2001), who reported an increase in
grassland cover in the Anjeni area, Northwest Ethiopia,
for the period between 1982 and 1995. Seifu (2005) also 3.2.2 Patterns of rainfall–runoff relationships between
found expanded grassland by over 50% of the original 1980s, 1990s and 2000s
cover at headstream of Abbay watershed, Blue Nile basin, To analyse the rainfall–runoff relationship in the study area,
between 1957 and 2001. annual and average monthly rainfall and runoff data from
The land use land cover analysis showed increased for- 1982 to 2006 were plotted. The result indicated that rainfall
est cover between 1986 and 1996 (first period), and a slight shows a slightly increasing trend (Figures 7 and 8), while run-
decrease between 1996 and 2006 (second period). In 1986 off shows a slightly decreasing trend during 1990s and
the area under forest cover was 2.44 ha (2.5% of the study increases during 2000s. However, in the highlands of Ethio-
area), which increased to 19.5 ha (20.6%) in 1996 and pia, Hurni et al. (2005) reported that there have been no sig-
decreased to 18.3 ha (19.35%) in 2006 (Table 2). There nificant trends in total annual rainfall over the long term. As
was an increase in the forest cover during the first period, for average monthly rainfall and runoff, it was observed that
while some part of the study area was used for area exclo- the highest values of rainfall and runoff occurred during July
sure and rehabilitation of the degraded land. On the other and August and strong relation between rainfall and runoff
hand, following the fall of the Derg regime (who ruled were also observed (Figure 8).
Ethiopia for 25 years), deforestation of the exclosure was The STC, which can be obtained from the regression coef-
taking place in the second period. This can be a singular ficients of linear equations (Wen-wu et al. 2004), is used to
reason for the decrease of forest cover in the year 2006. judge the trend of runoff. That means steeper slopes are
In all the periods considered, the area under forest characterized by high runoff while flatter slopes are associated
increased by 15.9 ha (16.85%) from what existed in the with reduced runoff. The results in Figure 9 and Table 5
base year 1986 (Table 2). The annual increment of forest showed that, the annual STC in 1980s are sharper than that
cover in the first period was 1.5 ha and the annual decrease of 1990s and 2000s despite statistically non-significant differ-
during the second period was 0.125. This result is in line ences in rainfall amounts and runoff generated during the
with the findings of Bantider (2007), who indicated an three decades. This indicated that compared to the cumulat-
increase in forest cover from 19% in 1986 and 18.5% in ive annual rainfall, the annual cumulative runoff has slightly
1995 to 33% in 2001 in the eastern escarpment of decreased in the period from 1992 to 1999 compared to the
Wollo. On the other hand, the result contradicts with earlier period from 1982 to 1989. And more runoff was
the findings of Zeleke and Hurni (2001), Seifu (2005), obtained during 1980s than during 1990s at a similar rainfall
and Worku (2009), which all showed a decreasing trend amount. This might be due to the increased forest cover of the
of forest cover in northern Ethiopia. For instance, area as explained above.
Worku (2009) reported that forest cover had decreased Our finding coincides with the findings of Alansi et al.
from 10% (1965) to 8% (1986) and then to 7% (2006) in (2009), who found that cumulative annual runoff had
upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, northwest highlands of increased slightly from 1990 to 1998 compared to 1980–
Ethiopia. 1989s, and there was more runoff during 1990s than that of
It was found that open woodland constituted 15.66 ha 1980s at similar rainfall amount following the reduction of
(16.5%), 7.79 ha (8.22%) and 8.02 ha (9.5%) of the study forest cover during 1990s in Bernam Watershed, Malaysia.
area in 1986, 1996 and 2006, respectively. The open woodland Ngigi (2003) also reported similar findings with this paper.
decreased by 8.3% in the first period, while in the second
period it did not show much change (0.2% increase). One Table 3. Linear relationship of runoff with different crops 1982–2006.
of the major reasons for this change was afforestation activity, No Cover type Linear equation R2 S P-value
which had taken place to increase the density of this wood- 1 Maize DIS = 364−0.35 maize 0.0% 120.5 .001
land. From the result of the LULC classification, it was 2 Fallow DIS = 315 + 1.59 fallow 0.0 119.6 .000
observed that homestead accounts for the smallest area of 3 Pulse DIS = 450−4.52 pulse 9.0% 112.3 .000
4 Cereals DIS = 242 + 3.08 Cereals 2.7% 116.2 .015
all LULC types identified (Table 2). The area under
this category was 1.82 ha (1.9%), 2.55 ha (2.7%) and
5.94 ha (6.3%) of the study area in 1986, 1996 and 2006, Table 4. Linear relationships of sediment load with different crops.
respectively. During the entire period, the proportion of No Cover type Linear equation R2 S P-value
homestead and wood lots and garden area increased steadily 1 Maize Sed. = 2566−17.2 maize 0.0% 1487 .042
by 0.736 ha (0.783%) in the first period, 3.36 ha (3.577%) in 2 Fallow Sed. = 1759 + 11.4 fallow 0.0 1490 .064
the second period and 4.09 ha (4.36%) from 1986 to 2006, 3 Pulse Sed. = 3186−53.6 pulse 7.8% 1402 .000
4 Cereals Sed. = 1643 + 10.9 serials 0.6% 1490 .175
respectively.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 95

Figure 6. Land use map for the year 2006.

Figure 7. Annual rainfall and runoff for the period 1982–2006.

Figure 8. Average monthly rainfall and runoff for the period 1982–2006.
96 G. TESFAYE ET AL.
Figure 9. Double mass curve of annual rainfall and runoff for the Maybar watershed.
Table 5. Difference between runoff and sediment load for three decades (at
95%CI).
P-value of
rainfall vs P-value of runoff
No Time runoff Significance vs sediment load
1 Annual 0.276 N 0.195
Note: N = not significant at 95%CI.
The relationships between rainfall and runoff were evalu-
ated in the three periods (from 1982 to 1989, from 1992 to
1999 and from 2000 to 2006) and the annual double mass
curves and its trend curves of rainfall and runoff is presented
in Figure 9 and Table 5. As can be seen in Figure 9, for every
regression line the best fit is very high (R 2 > 0.9). Similar find-
ings had been reported by Kliment and Matoušková (2008),
which stated that the largest deviations in STC were observed
in the Ostružná River basin following the expansion of agri-
culture and reduction in forest cover.
The annual STC during 2000s was greater than that of
1990s though the difference is not statistically significant
(Figure 9). This indicated that, compared to the cumulative
annual rainfall, the annual cumulative runoff had increased
slightly from 2000 to 2006 compared to that from 1992 to
1999, and more runoff was observed during the 2000s than
that of 1990s with similar rainfall. Similarly, Restrepo and
Syvitski (2006) reported that most of the tributaries in the
upper Magdalena basin have experienced a significant
increase in sediment load during the period (1991–2001), fol-
lowing the severe decline of forest cover and incremental
encroachment of agricultural land cover during the period
of study. Pascual-Ferrer et al. (2014) agreed that river basins
are challenged by different factors in the world, particularly in
the; such as the local economy’s reliance on agriculture, small
and scattered water users, economic water scarcity, large
pockets of poverty and widespread environmental degra-
dation. This indicated that siltation and runoff are not
uncommon; so managing forests and other related resources
are of paramount importance to improve water availability
and to help the local society to diversify its income.
3.3. Effect of LULC pattern on rainfall–runoff
relationship
According to the land use analysis result, from 1986 to 1996,
forest land has increased by 16.77%. On the contrary, open
woodland, cultivated land and grassland has decreased by
8.3%, 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively (Table 2). The accumulat-
ive annual runoff from 1992 to 1999 is less than from 1982 to
Significance
1989, however, it is not statistically significant. The reasons
N
for the presence of high runoff during 1980s and increment
of annual STC during 1980s compared with the 1990s
could be the expansion of forest land. Mohawesh et al.
(2015) conducted research on the effects of a sequence of
land use changes, and soil conservation measures on soil
degradation. The effects of changing the land use and whether
the changes were associated with the construction of stone
walls varied according to the annual rainfall. The changes in
soil properties could be used as indicators of land degradation
and to assess the impact of soil conservation programmes. The
results help in understanding the effects of land use changes
on land degradation processes and carbon sequestration
potential and in formulating sound soil conservation plans.
Negusse et al. (2013) also conducted field research in northern
Ethiopia. Based on their report, the volume of runoff and
groundwater recharge before and after the intervention was
found to be 26.88%, 17.19%, 1.43% and 19.04% of the mean
annual rainfall of the catchment, respectively. The availability
of groundwater has increased more than 10 times since 1993.
They suggested that the construction of additional physical
conservation structures is essential to improve further the
groundwater availability in the area.
Similarly, studies conducted by Saikia and Kumar (2010)
at Gaula catchment of Himalayan region have concluded
that LULCC can be considered as the main reason for
increased runoff and sediment load.
In addition, from a small catchment experiment, Huang
(2006) indicated that runoff increased about 40 mm per
year when 60% of woody plants were removed. Zhang et al.
(2009) also stated that runoff decreases along with the
increase of vegetation coverage in Lao Shi-Kan watershed,
northern Zhenjiang, China. This implies that rainfall and
runoff do not have a unique relationship, and thus cannot
fit directly into a simple linear model. This is because the for-
est coverage differed during different periods. A decreased
discharge during spring time was reported as a result of
increased in forest area coverage (Huang 2006). The results
of this study corroborated the conclusions from several
other experiments (Bewket 2002, Descheemaeker et al.
2006, Girmay et al. 2009, Mbano et al. 2009, Asmamaw
2015, Mekonnen et al. 2015, Araya et al. 2016, Asmamaw
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 97

2016), where they stated that LULCC affects the runoff and 3.4 Patterns of runoff–sediment relationships
sediment load relationship. As presented in Figure 9, the between 1980s, 1990s and 2000s
annual STC during the 2000s are greater than that of 1990s,
To analyse the runoff–sediment relationship in the study area
however, the difference is not statistically significant. This
annual runoff and sediment load data from 1982 to 2006 were
indicated that compared to the cumulative annual rainfall,
plotted (Figures 10 and 11). During the 1990s study period,
the annual cumulative runoff has increased slightly from
there was a slight decrease in sediment load amount com-
2000 to 2006 than that from 1992 to 1999 and more runoff
pared with the 1980s, whereas during the 2000s there was a
was observed during the 1990s than the 2000s with similar
slight increase in sediment load amount when compared
rainfall. This is probably due to declining forest land and
with the 1990s (Figure 10).
the incremental increase of cultivated land, as cultivated
In terms of months, sediment load presents bimodal
land is characterized by high runoff volume and sediment
peaks; one in March–April and the major in July–September,
yield (Higgitt and Lu 1999, Girmay et al. 2009). Mekonnen
with the highest being in August (Figure 11). There was also a
et al. (2015) studied the sediment trapping efficacy of sedi-
strong overlapping pattern between runoff and sediment load
ment storage dams (SSDs) built in the outlet of eight small
justifying that sediment load is a function of runoff predomi-
sub-catchments in north-west Ethiopia. They reported that
nantly (Figure 11). The double mass curve plots of runoff and
the SSDs trapped an average of 1584 t yr−1 of the inflow sedi-
sediment load for the three periods (1982–1989, 1992–1999
ment and catchment-specific sediment yield ranging from 8.6
and 2000–2006) and the STC were shown in Figure 12.
to 55 t ha−1 yr−1. They suggested that although constructing
Despite not being statistically significant, the STC of annual
SSDs is costly, they are promising off-site structural measures
runoff–sediment double mass curve in 1980s is greater than
to trap significant amounts of sediment at the outlet of the
that of 1990s. This indicates that annually accumulative sedi-
sub-catchments.
ment had decreased slightly from 1992 to 1999 compared
The reason for the insignificant amount change in runoff
with that from 1982 to 1989. And the sediment concen-
and sediment load in the catchment can be explained in
trations during the 1980s were higher than that of the
different ways. The small proportion of forest/woodland cov-
1990s with the constant runoff amount.
erage in the catchment compared to the land covered by agri-
Getachew and Melesse (2013) studied the impact of land
culture may not cause a substantial impact on rainfall–runoff
use change on the hydrology of the Angereb watershed,
relationship. The other factor might be that the soil and water
Ethiopia. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to
conservation activities implemented in the catchment’s culti-
the land cover has shown that the mean wet monthly flow
vated land since 1983 did not affect the catchment’s runoff
for 2011 land cover increased by 39% compared to the 1985
substantially.

Figure 10. Annual runoff and sediment for the period 1982–2006.

Figure 11. Average monthly runoff and sediment load for the period 1982–2006.
98 G. TESFAYE ET AL.
Figure 12. Double mass curve of annual runoff and sediment load at Maybar Watershed.
land cover. On the other hand, dry average monthly flow
decreased by 46% in 2011 compared to the 1985 land cover.
Wagesho (2014) also agreed that the simulated surface runoff
component has increased progressively since the 1970s. He
noted that percentage annual surface runoff varies from
10% to 23% at Bilate and 16% to over twofold at Hare
watersheds.
Similarly, Alansi et al. (2009) reported that the annual STC
during the 1990s was more than that of the 1980s, when the
forest land was converted into other land use system during
the 1990s. The STC of annual runoff–sediment double mass
curve during the 1990s was less than that of the 2000s, though
it was not statistically significant. This implies that the sedi-
ment concentration during the 2000s has slightly increased
from that of the 1990s.
Adamu (2013) studied LULLC impact on hydrology in
north-western Ethiopia. The result shows that the mean
monthly stream flow increased by 16.26 m3/s for the wet
months while for the dry months decreased by 5.41 m3/s.
This means that the flow during the wet months has
increased, while the flow during the dry months decreased.
The Surface runoff increased, while Ground Water Flow
decreased from 1986 to 2001 due to the increment of culti-
vated lands. Wen-wu et al. 2004) also documented that the
STC of annual runoff–sediment mass curve during 1990s
was less than that in 1980s at Zichang Watershed of the
Loess Plateau where, the forest cover was decreased. This
means that sediment concentration during 1990s has
increased slightly higher than that during 1980s with the
same amount of runoff.
The double mass curve plots of runoff and sediment load
for the three periods (1982–1989; 1992–1999 and 2000–2006)
and the STC were shown in Figure 11. As can be seen in
Figure 11, despite it is not statistically significant, the STC
of annual runoff–sediment double mass curve in 1980s is
greater than that of 1990s. This indicates that annually
accumulative sediment has decreased slightly from 1990 to
1998 than that from 1980 to 1989. And the sediment concen-
trations during 1980s were higher than that of 1990s with the
constant runoff amount. Hence, soil is more susceptible to
loss during 1980s when land use/cover were slightly changed
as mentioned above.
This result is in line with the findings of Alansi et al.
(2009), who stated the annual STC during 1990s is more
than that of 1980s, when the forest land was converted in
to other land use system during 1990s. The STC of annual
runoff–sediment double mass curve during 1990s is less
than that of 2000s though it is not statistically significant.
That means the sediment concentration during 2000s has
slightly increased from that of 1990s. The result of the current
study coincides with the findings of Wen-wu et al. (2004),
who indicated that the STC of annual runoff–sediment
mass curve during 1980s was less than that in 1990s at
Zichang Watershed of the Loess Plateau, where the forest
cover was decreased. This means that sediment concentration
during 1990s has increased slightly higher than that during
1980s with the same amount of runoff.
As observed in Figures 3–5 and Table 2, there was a slight
change in land use/cover from grassland and forest/wood-
lands to cultivated lands from 1996 to 2006. Consequently
the sediment concentration during 2000s has increased
slightly more than that of 1990s (Figure 11). This might be
due to the increment of cultivated land and the decrease in
forest land during 2000s.
3.5. Effect of LULC change on runoff–sediment load
relationships
Comparing the land-use patterns from 1986 to 2006 in the
study area, we may get some explanations for STCs variation
from 1980s to 1990s and from 1990s to 2000s. As indicated in
Figures 3–5, some cultivated lands, grasslands and open
woodlands were slightly changed into forest/woodlands
from 1986 to 1996. Consequently there was a slight decrease
in sediment load amount during 1990s than that of 1980s for
the same amount of runoff (Figure 11). The slight increase in
forest cover during 1990s could be the possible reason for
decreased sediment load amount in the same period. The
sediment yield of rivers is often sensitive to changes in catch-
ment land use and in situ watershed management practices
(Adamu 2013, Biratu and Asmamaw 2016, Kidane and
Alemu 2015, Mengistie and Kidane 2016). Such an impact
is most likely to be demonstrated at a restricted spatial
scale, particularly in headwater catchments. The findings of
this study coincide with Barkordari (2003), who reported
that the distraction of natural vegetation covers have resulted
in a decrease in the annual total water yield by 3.4 mm in the
Minab catchment, hormozgan province, Iran. Costa et al.
(2003) also indicated that deforestation causes an increase
in the annual mean discharge. Adamu (2013) investigated

LULLC impact on hydrology in north-western Ethiopia. The
result shows that the mean monthly stream flow increased by
16.26 m3/s for the wet months while for the dry months
decreased by 5.41 m3/s. This means that the flow during the
wet months has increased, while the flow during the dry
months decreased. The Surface runoff increased, while
Ground Water Flow decreased from 1986 to 2001 due to
the increment of cultivated lands. Nyssen et al. (2008a) con-
firmed that forestation practices in the catchments in Tigray
region in Ethiopia reduce soil erosion by 14%.
In addition, Mueller et al. (2009) have also found that
afforestation has changed the hydrological behaviour of the
headwater of the catchments of the Ebro basin by modifying
surface runoff and by reducing the peak flow, soil erosion and
sediment export.
Various research reports are in agreement with our study
(e.g. Cerdà and Doerr 2007, Wagner et al. 2013, Adimassu
et al. 2014, Wagesho 2014, Kiros et al. 2015, Buendia et al. 2016).
4 Conclusions and recommendations
From the results of this study, it can be concluded that May-
bar sub-watershed had experienced a slight change in LULC
over the past three decades. These changes in LULC have also
affected the relationship between rainfall–runoff and runoff–
sediment load processes at the watershed although variations
existed between the different decades. From 1986 to 2006, the
proportion of forest land has increased slightly, while grass-
land and open woodland have decreased. Besides, cultivated
land had decreased during the 1990s and increased during
the 2000s. As a result, the STCs of annual rainfall–runoff
and the runoff–sediment double mass curve during the
1990s were less than that of the 1980s, which indicates
more soil and water loss during the 1980s, which overlaps
with low forest cover. Furthermore, STCs of annual rain-
fall–runoff and runoff–sediment load double mass curve
during the 1990s were less than that of the 2000s, which indi-
cates more soil and water loss obtained during the 2000s. The
higher STCs of annual rainfall–runoff and runoff–sediment
load in the 1990s could be explained by the incremental
increase in agricultural land and the decrease in forest
cover, which resulted in slightly higher runoff and sediment
load. It is clearly shown that cultivated and grassland areas
are important diffuse sources of sediment in the Maybar
sub-catchment than they are in the forested area, and should
be targeted by on-site catchment management strategies to
reduce sediment supply to rivers. Therefore, in order to
reduce catchment soil loss and sedimentation problems in a
sustainable manner, catchment treatment needs to focus on
afforestation/reforestation practices. Cultivating steep slopes
should be avoided and the vegetal cover of the sub-watershed
has to be increased and some control measures should be
built.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to acknowledge the Amhara National Regional
State Meteorological Services Agency and GIS team for their support
of climate data, topographic map and satellite image data, respectively.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT 99
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