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How To Spot 100 Bagger PDF
How To Spot 100 Bagger PDF
How did you zero in on the concept of a 100-bagger? Why did you choose
to make it the subject of your wealth creation study?
This report would most likely have been titled ‘demystifying growth’. But then
we came across the book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market by Thomas W Phelps,
who is described as a private investor, columnist, analyst, author and financial
advisor. Written in 1972, the book makes a strong case for investors to “buy
right and hold on”. It offers examples of how over 365 stocks in the US
appreciated 100 times or more over the 40-year period ending 1971. The
importance of this book is that it led us to think about growth and understand
the power of growth in investing, particularly in identifying some of the future
multi-baggers. This was the starting point for the study. Growth is crucial to
investing but is not discussed much in India; there is an incomplete
understanding of the subject.
The BSE Sensex had a base of 100 for the year 1979. It
first touched 10,000 in February 2006, that is, 100X in
"Our 27 years (almost 19% CAGR). As of March 2014, the
investing Sensex was at the 22,400 level. It was at the 224 level in
style is 1984, that is, 100X in 30 years (a CAGR of 17%). Given
primarily such a strong performance of the benchmark index
concentrated itself, smart investors should aim to beat the
on quality, benchmark and achieve 100X in 20 years at the most
growth, (that is, a CAGR of 26%). Our study showed that 100x
longevity and stocks on an average take 12 years to rise hundredfold,
price. Of the that is, a 47% return CAGR, and in a given timeframe,
four, growth 100X investment opportunities are much more widely
is the most available than 100X investment ideas. If 100X takes 50
neglected years, the effective annual return is only 10%; if it takes
variable" 40 years, the figure would be 12%. In the Indian
context, the long-period return of the benchmark
indices is around 17%. Thus, if a stock takes more than
30 years to rise hundredfold, it would most likely end up underperforming the
market. Given this, even investors with long-term outlook should reject such
slow-growth 100X ideas. Hence, we believe that the single-most important
determinant of stock market return is growth in all its dimensions — sales,
margin and valuation.
Of the total 3,500 listed stocks, the prospect of finding 100X stocks — we
found 47 such stocks in our study over a span of 15-20 years — may sound
like trying to look for a needle in a haystack. However, what is interesting is
that over the 16-year period between 1994 and 2009, the number of 100X
opportunities (a stock may offer you multiple entry points to make 100X) was
much higher at 163. This is because most 100X stocks offer multi-year
windows to buy into them and still rise 100X from that level. In fact, the
average number of opportunities in the first 11 years is a high 14. A decent
strike rate from this level will work wonders for any portfolio. For instance,
Motherson Sumi and Shree Cement offered the highest number of opportunity
years (11 each). Both these stocks could have been bought anytime between
1994 and 2004 and the stock prices would have risen hundredfold thereafter.
Likewise, Lupin offered a nine-year buying window from 1995 to 2003. Even
Infosys, by far the highest multi-bagger, could have been bought any time
between 1994 and 1998 for a 100X experience. But the difference would be in
the price appreciation multiple: 2,900X if bought in 1994 and 209X if bought
in 1998, if held through all the way to March 2014. The key takeaway is that
an investor need not worry even if he or she missed a multi-fold price rise in a
potential 100X by not buying into its initial years. In other words, when it
comes to 100X stocks, it is dawn when you wake up. Or, more accurately,
when the 100X idea dawns on you, simply wake up and buy the stock. But
there is one check you still have to carry out when you buy the stock: does it
still carry the essence of 100X?
One should not fall into the trap of compromising on the quality of growth. In
1960, Phil Fisher said that in investing, 90% is the management, 9% is the
business and only 1% is other things that matter. If the management is strong
and the business is good, nothing else matters. At one point, HDFC bank was
available at Rs 700 crore-800 crore; today, it is a Rs 2.5-lakh-crore bank. At
some point, valuations are less important, particularly when you are buying a
small-sized company’s stock. I believe valuations are less important,
particularly when buying shares of small-sized companies that tend to grow
fast and accelerate earnings rapidly. For instance, if you missed buying Infosys
at Rs 200 crore and later bought it at Rs 500 crore, it hasn’t made much of a
difference in the context of the company’s current market capitalisation.