MASTER IN TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT CENTER

UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES
DILIMAN, QUEZON CITY

SUBJECT GUIDE for 2nd Semester 2018- 2019

TM 281 STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGY PLANNING: TECHNOLOGY, FORESIGHT, FORECASTING AND

ASSESSMENT (TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND FORESIGHT ANALYSIS)

FACULTY AFFILIATE

Professor Glen A. Imbang Friday

MS Biology UP Diliman
Masters of Engineering and Technology Management, Univ. of Qld. (Aus.)
Some Ph.D units Environmental Science

Consultation Hours: 5 to 6 PM Fridays and by appointment

E-mail: glenimbang@yahoo.com cell: 0995 674 3987

Technology Forecast and Technology Foresight are essential planning tools and techniques that have
gained popularity and importance in strategic planning for different technologies, issues and programs. Much of the
success of today’s firms and organizations is due to the use of one or a combination of forecasting and foresight
techniques.
Technology is a system and each technology is not isolated from another technology. Moreover, certain
factors and events have an impact on the trajectory and path of certain technologies. As a technology manager a
background on technology forecast and foresight is a must to integrate all the elements that make up a technological
system. The future of a technological system will be plausible thus it will guide strategic planners in the creation of a
roadmap to reach a firm or an institution’s strategic plans not only for short and medium term but also in the long
term.

Objectives:
At the end of the semester the students will be able to

 Learn the appropriate methods in understanding and forecasting technological change,

 Apply some of the forecasting and foresight methods in analyzing technological change,
 Know why it is imperative to have a technological assessment, and
 Conduct a small-scale technology foresight exercise

Assessment
Requirement Weight Details Due Date
Quizzes 10% Quizzes are scheduled after a number of topics have been discussed. It is
advised that students take down important points of the presentations and
lectures.
Exercises and 10% Includes Chapter presentations on Strategic Management Concepts
Workshops
 Assessment
Requirement Weight Details Due Date
Individual 30% What is the relation of technology to innovation? Use 3-5 readings and 2-3 October
Assignments articles or books of your choice. 2017
What is your company’s philosophy on technology? How would that November
philosophy affect or influence your company as a technological system, its 2017
markets and interaction with institutions and stakeholders.
Choose any technology of your choice that would be of your interest . If you December
were to assess that technology, how would you go about it? Bear in mind the 2017
evolution of that technology ant its trajectories that might influence your
assessment of that technology. Make an informed assessment of that
technology if you were to present it to its end-users.
Group Project 50% After a series of readings, seminars and exercises, the group will be assigned
to conduct a small-scale technology foresight exercise on a technological
breakthrough, emerging technology or a technology issue in a field common
to the line of work of the group.

The group will be responsible for the scope of the study and technology
foresight to be used. A tentative schedule is shown below:

Timeline Activities
January to  Development of Topic or Problem
February 2018  Setting up of the Project Team (Name,
Headquarters and Networks)
 Drafting the Technology Foresight Plan
 Pre-Environmental Scanning
March, April,  Selection of Tools for Technology Foresight
May 2018  Planning for the Technology Foresight Workshop,
Consultations
 Environmental Scanning
 Conducting the Technology Foresight Workshop or
Consultation
After May 16,  Presentation of the Technology Foresight Study
2018 and Evaluation
Last day of  Deadlines for submission of Final Report: June
submission of ___, 2018
grades: June
2018

Note: Progress Reports will be submitted to Prof. Imbang on or before the

end of each activity.

The group should incorporate or consult literatures supplied and at least 5

references of their choice. The group must narrow down the study by focusing
on any aspect of technology forecasting, technology assessment or foresight
analysis. The report should not be more than 10,000 words but not less
than 5,000 words.

The summary, outline and findings of the group will be presented using Power
Point Presentation.
Bonus 10%  Articles or readings will be assigned to each student and will lead a Will start
Presentation seminar or seminars for the day. by March
 The student shall prepare an outline or synopsis of the article. He or she 2018
should highlight important points about the article and relate it to his or
her current or past work or an inquiry on a technological issue.
 The outline will be submitted and each member of the class will be given
a copy.
 The presenter/s can use lecture, panel discussions and brainstorming
etc. as a strategy for presenting the assigned article or readings.
 Assessment
Requirement Weight Details Due Date
 Class participation is encouraged during the report.
Recitations 5% Students are encouraged to participate and relate concepts and learning in
their place of work. The professor will also ask questions which are
sometimes objective in nature.

Schedule of Topics and Quizzes

Category # Topics Reporter Schedule

Report 1 Strategy / Model / Processes Prof. Imbang
2 Vision / Mission Statements Prof. Imbang
3 Competitive Profile Matrix 1, 12
4 Porter’s Five Forces 2 P 17,6
5 EFE Matrix 3, 26
6 Resource Based View 4 P, 13, 20
7 Financial Ratios and Breakeven 5 P 9,18
8 Value Chain Analysis 6 P 1,28
Readings Defining Technological Change, Foresight Analysis and Post-
industrial Society
 Introduction to Street (1992) and Webster (1991)
 Postindustrial Possibilities: A critique in economic discourse. F.
Block. 1990
 The Concept of Postindustrial Society. M. Poster. 1990
 The Creative Response to Economic History. J. Schumpeter.
1947
Innovation and Innovative Systems
 Innovations Concepts and Theories
 Three Paradigms of Innovation Theory. Sundbo (1995)
 The Social Shaping of Technology. Williams and Edge (1996)
 Topic Assignments for Bonus Presentations
Quiz Topics from August to September 2017
Reading Philosophy of Technology
 Feenberg. 1991
 The Questions Concerning Technology. M. Heidegger. 1997
 Philosophy of Technology. D. Idhe. 1993
 Technicz and Praxis. D. Ihde. 1997
Report 9 IFE Matrix 7 , 27
10 Strategy Types 8 P, 11,32
11 Porter’s Five Generic Strategies 9 P, 30,31
12 First Mover Advantage 10, 3
13 Outsourcing 11, 7
14 SWOT Matrix 12, 23
15 SPACE Matrix 13, 14
16 BCG & IE Matrix 14 P, 8,29
Reading Defining Technological Systems
 The Evolution of Large Technological Systems. T.P. Hughes.
1997
 Missile Accuracy: A Case Study in Social Progress of
Technological Change. D. Mackenzie.
Technological Paradigms and Technological Regimes
 Assigned readings
Category # Topics Reporter Schedule
Markets and Institutions in the Evolution of Technologies and
Industries
 The emergence of biotechnology. L. Orsenigo. 1989
 Selected works of the instructor
Quiz
Reading Government Innovation Policy and Technological Change
 Evolution, technology policy and technological management.
J.S. Metcalfe. 1994
 Selected Readings
Exploiting Science and Technology
 Selected Readings from Street and Webster etc.
Technology Forecasting
 Selected Dossier
 Technological Forecasting for Decision-Making. J.P. Martino.
1993
Methods in Technological Forecasting and Foresight
 Technological Forecasting for Decision-Making. J.P. Martino.
1993
 Bonus Presentations assigned
Report 17 Grand Strategy 7 QSPM 15, 15
18 Organizational Culture 16, 21
19 Product Positioning 17, 16
20 EPS-EBIT Analysis 18, 25
21 Projected Financial Statements 19 P, 24,22
22 Company Valuation 20 P, 2,4
23 Balanced Scorecard 21 P, 5
24 Business Ethics 22, 10
25 Environmental Sustainability 23, 19
Reading Foresight Analysis
 From Anticipation to Action. A Handbook of strategic
Prospectives (UNESCO). Godet. 1993. Selected pages
 Selected Readings
Quiz Electronic Quiz
Reading Technology Assessment
 Martino
 Selected Dossier
National and International Perspectives in Technology
Foresight, Forecast and Assessment
 Selected readings and Dossier
Workshop Technology Foresight Workshops
 Environmental Scanning
 Scenarios Methods
 Consultations
 Technology Roadmaps
 Etc.
Final Group Presentation and Evaluation
Project

Please reserve 2 Sundays, 5:00 to 8:00 pm (make-up class: by arrangement 1 in April and 1 in May 2018)
Some Recommended Strategic Management References:

Pitts, Robert A. and Lei David. Strategic Management: Building and Sustaining Competitive Advantage. 4th
edition. 2007. Thomson South Western ( too be discussed in class for the chapter presentations)

David, Fred R. and David Forest. Strategic Management : Concepts and Cases. 16th edition. 2017. Pearson
Education. (Presentation Topics will be discussed in Class vis a vis Case studies. )

Plus, readings from an array of articles.

Notes:
 Grouping
 Tentative Topics
 Expectations
 Syllabus
 Requirements
 Attendance
 Introduction
 Objectives
 Overview of Technology Forecasting and Assessment
 Some presentations (case studies, etc.)

Topics for Bonus Presentations:

Technology Foresight Techniques

• Individual expert opinion

• Individual non-expert opinion
• Group expert opinion
• Mindmapping
• Critical or key technologies
• Environmental scanning
• Trend Analysis
• Delphi polling
• Scenario planning
• La Prospective-Godet
• Morphology analysis
• Relevance trees
• Technology Roadmapping
• Cross-impact evaluation
• Systems dynamic simulation
• Growth Curves
• Pearl Curve
• Gompertz Curve
• Fischer-Pry Curve
• Forecasting by Analogy