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Data Pengamatan Aldy
Data Pengamatan Aldy
Data Pengamatan :
J 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
T
01 October 2011 16 10 5 2 1 3 6 11 16 19 20 18 15 10 6 3 3 5 9 14 20 23 24 23
02 October 2011 19 14 8 4 2 2 4 8 13 17 19 19 16 13 9 5 4 4 7 11 16 21 23 23
03 October 2011 21 17 12 7 4 2 3 6 10 14 17 18 17 14 11 8 6 5 6 9 13 17 21 22
04 October 2011 21 19 15 11 7 5 4 5 8 11 14 16 16 15 13 10 8 7 7 8 11 14 17 20
05 October 2011 20 19 17 14 10 8 6 6 7 9 11 13 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 9 10 12 14 16
06 October 2011 18 18 17 16 13 11 9 8 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 13
07 October 2011 14 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 10
08 October 2011 11 12 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 7 7 9 11 13 14 16 16 15 14 12 10 9
09 October 2011 8 9 11 13 15 16 17 16 14 12 9 7 6 7 8 11 14 16 18 18 16 14 11 8
10 October 2011 7 6 7 10 13 15 17 18 17 15 12 8 6 5 6 9 12 16 18 19 19 17 13 10
11 October 2011 6 5 5 7 10 13 16 18 18 17 14 10 7 5 5 7 10 14 18 20 21 19 16 12
12 October 2011 7 4 3 4 7 11 15 18 19 18 16 12 9 6 5 6 9 13 17 20 22 21 18 14
13 October 2011 9 5 3 2 4 8 12 16 18 19 17 14 10 7 5 5 7 11 16 20 22 22 20 16
14 October 2011 12 7 3 2 3 6 10 14 17 19 18 15 12 8 6 5 6 9 14 18 22 23 22 18
15 October 2011 14 9 5 3 2 4 8 12 16 18 18 16 13 10 7 5 6 8 12 16 20 22 22 20
Data yang sudah dikonversikan lalu di analisa menggunakan software least square. Berikut keluaran dari hasil analisa
peramalan pasang surut ditunjukkan pada tabel 3, tabel 4 dan tabel 5.
Tabel 3 Hasil Perhitungan Amplitudo dan Beda Fasa Least Square
So = 11.003
Amplitudo (dm ) Beda Fase
M2 59.0 73.55
S2 5.7 58.66
N2 5.2 58.49
K1 8.3 76.21
M4 19.0 73.41
O1 31.2 52.18
P1 0.431 9.22
K2 0.735 60.09
MS4 0.56 11.35
No. dm m No. dm m
321 8.4246 0.84246 341 9.6437 0.96437
322 9.9883 0.99883 342 9.0837 0.90837
323 11.9163 1.19163 343 8.5425 0.85425
324 13.7978 1.37978 344 8.2755 0.82755
325 15.2699 1.52699 345 8.5147 0.85147
326 16.101 1.6101 346 9.3541 0.93541
327 16.1989 1.61989 347 10.6956 1.06956
328 15.5798 1.55798 348 12.2917 1.22917
329 14.3531 1.43531 349 13.8504 1.38504
330 12.7314 1.27314 350 15.1264 1.51264
331 11.0267 1.10267 351 15.9484 1.59484
332 9.5881 0.95881 352 16.199 1.6199
333 8.6867 0.86867 353 15.8052 1.58052
334 8.4119 0.84119 354 14.7732 1.47732
335 8.6492 0.86492 355 13.242 1.3242
336 9.1564 0.91564 356 11.4906 1.14906
337 9.6826 0.96826 357 9.8637 0.98637
338 10.0528 1.00528 358 8.6464 0.86464
339 10.1806 1.01806 359 7.9686 0.79686
340 10.0384 1.00384 360 7.7973 0.77973
Didapat pula nilai F (bilangan Formzahl) sebesar F = 0.403 maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa tipe pasang
surut menurut metode least square adalah jenis pasang surut campuran condong ke harian ganda.
2. Metoda Admiralty
Pada metode admiralty data pasut jangka waktu pendek (29 hari, 15 hari, 7 hari dan data 1 hari) dapat dianalisis dengan menggunakan analisa
harmonik yang dilakukan oleh Doodson (1921). Kelemahan dari metode Admiralty ini adalah hanya digunakan untuk pengolahan data-data
berjangka waktu pendek dan hasil perhitungan yang relatif sedikit hanya menghasilkan 9 komponen pasang surut utama. Dalam peramalan pasang
surut admiralty menggunakan satuan data centimeter (cm) sehingga data pengamatan yang sudah ada di konversikan dari meter ke centimeter
(cm). Berikut data konversi satuan ditunjukkan pada tabel 6.
centimeter (cm) 01:00:00 02:00:00 03:00:00 04:00:00 05:00:00 06:00:00 07:00:00 08:00:00 09:00:00 10:00:00 11:00:00 12:00:00 13:00:00 14:00:00 15:00:00 16:00:00 17:00:00 18:00:00 19:00:00 20:00:00 21:00:00 22:00:00 23:00:00 00:00:00
01/01/2011 70.0 80.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 110.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 180.0 170.0 150.0 120.0 100.0 70.0 50.0
02/01/2011 50.0 50.0 70.0 90.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 170.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 150.0 120.0 90.0 60.0
03/01/2011 40.0 40.0 40.0 60.0 90.0 110.0 130.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 150.0 170.0 190.0 190.0 180.0 150.0 120.0 80.0
04/01/2011 50.0 30.0 30.0 40.0 60.0 90.0 120.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 70.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 150.0 118.0 200.0 200.0 180.0 150.0 110.0
05/01/2011 70.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 70.0 110.0 130.0 150.0 150.0 140.0 120.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 80.0 100.0 130.0 160.0 190.0 200.0 190.0 170.0 130.0
06/01/2011 90.0 50.0 30.0 20.0 30.0 50.0 90.0 120.0 150.0 160.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 100.0 140.0 170.0 190.0 200.0 180.0 150.0
07/01/2011 120.0 70.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 70.0 110.0 140.0 160.0 160.0 150.0 130.0 100.0 70.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 110.0 150.0 170.0 190.0 190.0 170.0
08/01/2011 140.0 10.0 60.0 30.0 30.0 40.0 60.0 90.0 130.0 150.0 160.0 160.0 140.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 60.0 70.0 90.0 120.0 150.0 170.0 180.0 170.0
09/01/2011 150.0 110.0 80.0 50.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 80.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 160.0 150.0 130.0 100.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 100.0 130.0 160.0 170.0 170.0
10/01/2011 150.0 130.0 90.0 70.0 50.0 40.0 50.0 80.0 110.0 140.0 160.0 170.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 90.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 90.0 110.0 140.0 150.0 160.0
11/01/2011 150.0 130.0 110.0 80.0 60.0 50.0 50.0 70.0 10.0 130.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 130.0 140.0
12/01/2011 140.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 60.0 60.0 70.0 90.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 130.0
13/01/2011 130.0 130.0 110.0 100.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 90.0 110.0 130.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 160.0 140.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0
14/01/2011 110.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 80.0 80.0 110.0 120.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 160.0 160.0 140.0 130.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 90.0 90.0
15/01/2011 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 110.0 120.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 160.0 160.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 80.0
Data yang sudah dikonversikan lalu di analisa menggunakan software admiralty. Berikut keluaran dari hasil analisa peramalan
pasang surut ditunjukkan pada tabel 7 dan hasil ramal pasang surut berada di kolom admiralty pada tabel 8, tabel 9, dan tabel 10.
Tabel 7 Kesimpulan dari analisa admiralty
M2 S2 N2 K2 K1 O1 P1 M4 MS4 S0
Amplitudo 51.4 29.2 9.4 7.9 16.6 10.6 5.5 0.5 0.9 110
Beda Fase 265.4 286.4 172.9 286.4 241.8 327.4 241.8 327.1 102 0
Dari hasil kesimpulan analisa admiralty diatas dapat dihitung nilai F dengan cara sebagai berikut :
𝐴𝐾1 + 𝐴𝑂1 16.6 + 10.6
𝐹= = = 0,337
𝐴𝑀2 + 𝐴𝑆2 51.4 + 29.2
Maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa tipe pasang surut menurut metode admiralty adalah jenis pasang surut campuran condong ke harian ganda.
ramalan pasang surut ramalan pasang surut ramalan pasang surut ramalan pasang surut
Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty
01:00 1.5 1.48054 0.8986 01:00 1.5 1.52797 0.7183 01:00 1.5 1.50155 0.5518 01:00 1.4 1.41664 0.4348
02:00 1.1 1.14248 0.9651 02:00 1.3 1.26131 0.8066 02:00 1.3 1.31374 0.6245 02:00 1.3 1.30449 0.449
03:00 0.8 0.78964 1.0145 03:00 0.9 0.94713 0.9128 03:00 1.1 1.05872 0.7612 03:00 1.1 1.11888 0.5765
04:00 0.5 0.50276 1.0356 04:00 0.7 0.65907 1.0121 04:00 0.8 0.79699 0.9277 04:00 0.9 0.90387 0.7834
05:00 0.3 0.3481 1.0203 05:00 0.5 0.46623 1.0783 05:00 0.6 0.59284 1.0815 05:00 0.7 0.71255 1.0159
06:00 0.4 0.36138 0.9713 06:00 0.4 0.41657 1.0928 06:00 0.5 0.49961 1.182 06:00 0.6 0.59632 1.2134
07:00 0.5 0.53736 0.9077 07:00 0.5 0.52333 1.0549 07:00 0.5 0.54497 1.2047 07:00 0.6 0.59162 1.3256
08:00 0.8 0.82942 0.8617 08:00 0.8 0.75959 0.9859 08:00 0.7 0.72101 1.1512 08:00 0.7 0.70739 1.3286
09:00 1.2 1.16132 0.865 09:00 1.1 1.06445 0.9216 09:00 1.0 0.98461 1.0499 09:00 0.9 0.9197 1.2328
10:00 1.4 1.4485 0.9337 10:00 1.4 1.36032 0.8972 10:00 1.3 1.26963 0.9442 10:00 1.2 1.17765 1.0776
11:00 1.6 1.62183 1.0613 11:00 1.6 1.57516 0.9338 11:00 1.5 1.50672 0.8775 11:00 1.4 1.41931 0.9177
09/01/2011 12:00 1.6 1.64533 1.224 10/01/2011 12:00 1.7 1.66155 1.0334 11/01/2011 12:00 1.6 1.64268 0.8801 12/01/2011 12:00 1.6 1.59042 0.8073
13:00 1.5 1.52316 1.3924 13:00 1.6 1.60672 1.1825 13:00 1.7 1.65242 0.9639 13:00 1.7 1.65793 0.7873
14:00 1.3 1.29556 1.54 14:00 1.4 1.43254 1.3584 14:00 1.5 1.54165 1.1222 14:00 1.6 1.61456 0.8771
15:00 1.0 1.02714 1.6442 15:00 1.2 1.18808 1.5324 15:00 1.3 1.34246 1.3307 15:00 1.5 1.47636 1.0694
16:00 0.8 0.79128 1.6848 16:00 0.9 0.93782 1.6712 16:00 1.1 1.1054 1.5495 16:00 1.3 1.27745 1.3292
17:00 0.7 0.65293 1.6459 17:00 0.7 0.7473 1.7396 17:00 0.9 0.88923 1.7278 17:00 1.1 1.06383 1.598
18:00 0.7 0.65229 1.5236 18:00 0.7 0.66728 1.7108 18:00 0.7 0.74803 1.8159 18:00 0.9 0.88533 1.807
19:00 0.8 0.79276 1.3342 19:00 0.7 0.71933 1.5779 19:00 0.7 0.71682 1.7804 19:00 0.8 0.78382 1.8959
20:00 1.0 1.03801 1.1144 20:00 0.9 0.888 1.3613 20:00 0.8 0.79991 1.6175 20:00 0.8 0.7803 1.832
21:00 1.3 1.32096 0.9097 21:00 1.1 1.12398 1.1042 21:00 1.0 0.96808 1.3564 21:00 0.9 0.86657 1.6209
22:00 1.6 1.56304 0.7579 22:00 1.4 1.35876 0.8587 22:00 1.2 1.16745 1.0504 22:00 1 1.00737 1.3045
23:00 1.7 1.69699 0.678 23:00 1.5 1.5255 0.6695 23:00 1.3 1.33724 0.7614 23:00 1.1 1.15311 0.9484
00:00 1.7 1.6852 0.6693 00:00 1.6 1.57803 0.5643 00:00 1.4 1.42852 0.5438 00:00 1.3 1.25728 0.6259
Tabel 10 Rekapan Input Grafik (lanjutan 2)
ramalan pasang surut ramalan pasang surut ramalan pasang surut
Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty Tanggal jam pengamatan least square admiralty
01:00 1.3 1.29011 0.4014 01:00 1.1 1.1364 0.4722 01:00 1.0 0.96826 0.6437
02:00 1.3 1.24362 0.3187 02:00 1.2 1.14113 0.271 02:00 1.0 1.00528 0.3285
03:00 1.1 1.12966 0.3909 03:00 1.1 1.09513 0.2461 03:00 1.0 1.01806 0.1823
04:00 1.0 0.97514 0.5962 04:00 1.0 1.00933 0.4003 04:00 1.0 1.00384 0.2404
05:00 0.8 0.81753 0.8803 05:00 0.9 0.9034 0.6919 05:00 1.0 0.96437 0.4867
06:00 0.7 0.69926 1.1682 06:00 0.8 0.8049 1.043 06:00 0.9 0.90837 0.8554
07:00 0.7 0.6585 1.3855 07:00 0.7 0.74595 1.3615 07:00 0.9 0.85425 1.2483
08:00 0.7 0.71695 1.48 08:00 0.8 0.75444 1.5675 08:00 0.8 0.82755 1.5642
09:00 0.9 0.86987 1.4361 09:00 0.8 0.84246 1.6154 09:00 0.9 0.85147 1.7277
10:00 1.1 1.08506 1.2774 10:00 1.0 0.99883 1.504 10:00 0.9 0.93541 1.7075
11:00 1.3 1.31292 1.0571 11:00 1.2 1.19163 1.2726 11:00 1.1 1.06956 1.5197
13/01/2011 12:00 1.5 1.50291 0.8429 14/01/2011 12:00 1.4 1.37978 0.9891 15/01/2011 12:00 1.2 1.22917 1.2193
13:00 1.6 1.618 0.7007 13:00 1.5 1.52699 0.7337 13:00 1.4 1.38504 0.8872
14:00 1.7 1.64122 0.6796 14:00 1.6 1.6101 0.5814 14:00 1.5 1.51264 0.6133
15:00 1.6 1.57467 0.8001 15:00 1.6 1.61989 0.5843 15:00 1.6 1.59484 0.4768
16:00 1.4 1.43564 1.0455 16:00 1.6 1.55798 0.7556 16:00 1.6 1.6199 0.5249
17:00 1.3 1.2535 1.3624 17:00 1.4 1.43531 1.0611 17:00 1.6 1.58052 0.7555
18:00 1.1 1.06664 1.6718 18:00 1.3 1.27314 1.4258 18:00 1.5 1.47732 1.1129
19:00 0.9 0.91586 1.8905 19:00 1.1 1.10267 1.7533 19:00 1.3 1.3242 1.5023
20:00 0.8 0.83319 1.9559 20:00 1.0 0.95881 1.9545 20:00 1.1 1.14906 1.8181
21:00 0.8 0.83031 1.8436 21:00 0.9 0.86867 1.9734 21:00 1.0 0.98637 1.9755
22:00 0.9 0.8936 1.5732 22:00 0.8 0.84119 1.8001 22:00 0.9 0.86464 1.9328
23:00 1.0 0.99005 1.2012 23:00 0.9 0.86492 1.4703 23:00 0.8 0.79686 1.6976
00:00 1.1 1.08107 0.8062 00:00 0.9 0.91564 1.0548 00:00 0.8 0.77973 1.3212
Gambar 1 Grafik Perbandingan Pasang Surut Pantai Cilacap Januari 2011