Quarter

Year
1 2 3 4
1 150 115 85 95
2 170 105 80 105
3 180 100 70 115

a. Quarterly forecast if commutative forecast for the 4th year is 500

Find out mean average demand per year

Year
1 2 3
1 150 170 180
Quarter
2 115 105 100
3 85 80 70
4 95 105 115

Year
1 2 3 4
1 150 170 180
Quarter
2 115 105 100
3 85 80 70
4 95 105 115
Total 445 460 465 500
average 111.25 115 116.25

Find out mean average seasonal index

Year
mean
1 2 3 average 4
Quarter 1 1.348315 1.478261 1.548387 1.458321 182.2901
2 1.033708 0.913043 0.860215 0.935655 116.9569
3 0.764045 0.695652 0.602151 0.687283 85.91032
4 0.853933 0.913043 0.989247 0.918741 114.8426

Cumulative forecast for 4th year is 500

Average forecast=500/4=125

Quarter Year
 1 2 3 4
1 150 170 180 182.29
2 115 105 100 116.95
3 85 80 70 85.91
4 95 105 115 114.84
Total 445 460 465 500
average 111.25 115 116.25 125

b. If actual demand of Year 4 is 190, 100, 70 and 130 units for quarters 1 to 4 respectively,
calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).

Year
1 2 3 Forecasting year 4 Actual year 4 Absolute error
1 150 170 180 182.29 190 7.71
Quarter
2 115 105 100 116.95 100 16.95
3 85 80 70 85.91 70 15.91
4 95 105 115 114.84 130 15.16
55.73
MAD 13.93