Can adaptation and mitigation be complements?

Alan Ingham, Jie Ma, and Alistair M. Ulph

August 2005

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 79

 Can adaptation and mitigation be
complements? *

Alan Ingham1, Jie Ma2, Alistair M. Ulph3

1
Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton,
Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. E-mail: ai@soton.ac.uk.
Corresponding author.
2
Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton,
Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. E-mail: jiema@soton.ac.uk.
3
Faculty of Humanities, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester
M13 9PL, UK. E-mail: alistair.ulph@manchester.ac.uk.

Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 79

August 2005

Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress".

Whilst they are commented on by Tyndall researchers, they have not been subject to a
full peer review.
The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of
the author(s) alone and not the Tyndall Centre.
Summary

It is often claimed that mitigation of greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate

change are complementary strategies for dealing with climate change. If all that is
meant by this is that it will usually be optimal to use both mitigation and adaptation to
combat climate change, and that an increase in the perceived damages from climate
change should lead to an increase in both mitigation and adaptation, then economic
analysis supports this interpretation. But economic analysis has a more precise
definition of complementarity: that reducing the costs of mitigation, say, will lead to
more mitigation and hence more adaptation. However it turns out to be quite difficult
to reproduce this result in the simple economic models that are used for the analysis
of economic policy towards climate change. We show that only in the case where the
effects of mitigation on marginal adaptation cost is strong do we get that increasing
mitigation costs will reduce both mitigation and adaptation. The interpretation is that
lowering the costs of mitigation increases mitigation, which slows climate change and
makes adaptation more effective. Here mitigation and adaptation would be
complements.

We use simple models of a single social planner who can choose the optimal mix of
adaptation and mitigation to minimize total social costs. We proceed from a very
basic model in which there is only one time period and no uncertainty, so there is a
known relationship which shows how mitigation and adaptation reduce the damage
costs caused by climate change, and known costs of adaptation and of mitigation. It is
straightforward to show that in general the optimal combination of mitigation and
adaptation will require the use of both strategies and that increasing damage costs
requires an increase in both adaptation and mitigation, but that the two strategies are
substitutes in the sense used by economists reducing the cost of mitigation increases
the use of mitigation and reduces the use of adaptation.

We then extend the simple model to allow for a number of complicating features,
including dynamics, multiple decision makers, and uncertainty, but it remains the case
that mitigation and adaptation are substitutes. Only when we link the cost of
adaptation to the level of mitigation do we find the possibility of complementarity.

This paper provides details of models used to support the arguments made in our
survey paper, Ingham, Ma and Ulph (2005), How do the costs of adaptation affect
optimal mitigation when there is uncertainty, irreversibility and learning.
4 Lqwurgxfwlrq
Lw lv riwhq fodlphg wkdw plwljdwlrq ri juhhqkrxvh jdvhv dqg dgdswdwlrq wr folpdwh
fkdqjh duh frpsohphqwdu| vwudwhjlhv wr ghdo zlwk folpdwh fkdqjh1 Li zkdw lv phdqw
e| wklv lv wkdw lw zloo xvxdoo| eh rswlpdo wr xvh erwk plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq wr ghdo
zlwk folpdwh fkdqjh / dqg wkdw d shufhlyhg lqfuhdvh lq wkh gdpdjhv fdxvhg e| folpdwh
fkdqjh vkrxog uhtxluh dq lqfuhdvh lq erwk plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq/ wkhq vlpsoh
hfrqrplf dqdo|vlv zrxog vxssruw vxfk dq lqwhusuhwdwlrq1 Exw frpsohphqwdulw| kdv
d pruh whfkqlfdo phdqlqj lq hfrqrplfv/ zklfk zrxog lpso| wkdw li/ vd|/ wkh frvwv ri
plwljdwlrq ihoo/ wkh rswlpdo uhvsrqvh zrxog eh wr lqfuhdvh wkh ohyho ri plwljdwlrq dqg
dovr dgdswdwlrq1 Vlpsoh hfrqrplf dqdo|vlv grhv qrw vxssruw vxfk dq lqwhusuhwdwlrq1
Lq doprvw doo vlpsoh hfrqrplf prghov ri folpdwh fkdqjh plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq
duh vxevwlwxwhv= d uhgxfwlrq lq/ vd|/ wkh frvw ri plwljdwlrq vkrxog ohdg vrflhw| wr gr
pruh plwljdwlrq dqg ohvv dgdswdwlrq1
Lq wklv sdshu/ zklfk surylghv wkh whfkqlfdo prghoolqj wkdw vxssruwv wkh dujxphqwv
zh pdgh lq rxu vxuyh| sdshu/ Lqjkdp/ Pd dqg Xosk +5338,/ zh ghyhors d udqjh ri
hfrqrplf prghov wr h{soruh wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq1 Zh
surfhhg iurp d yhu| edvlf prgho lq zklfk wkhuh lv rqo| rqh wlph shulrg/ dqg qr
xqfhuwdlqw|/ vr wkhuh lv d nqrzq uhodwlrqvkls/ zklfk vkrzv krz plwljdwlrq dqg dgds0
wdwlrq uhgxfh wkh gdpdjh frvwv fdxvhg e| folpdwh fkdqjh1 D vlqjoh vrfldo sodqqhu fdq
fkrrvh wkh rswlpdo pl{ ri dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq wr plqlpl}h wrwdo vrfldo frvwv1
Lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr vkrz wkdw lq jhqhudo wkh rswlpdo frpelqdwlrq ri plwljdwlrq
dqg dgdswdwlrq zloo uhtxluh wkh xvh ri erwk vwudwhjlhv/ dqg wkdw wkh wzr vwudwhjlhv duh
vxevwlwxwhv/ lq d vhqvh ghqhg deryh
Zh h{whqg wkh prgho/ dvvxpswlrq e| dvvxpswlrq/ wr vhh li dqg zkhq wkh frqfox0
vlrq/ wkdw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq duh vxevwlwxwhv/ fkdqjhv1 Wkh uvw h{whqvlrq lv
wr vhyhudo djhqwv> wklv lv grqh lq vhfwlrq 61 Wklv dulvhv iurp frqfhuq iru wkh glhuhqw
vsdwldo dvshfwv ri plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq/ zlwk plwljdwlrq ghdolqj zlwk d joredo
sxeolf jrrg/ zkloh dgdswdwlrq riwhq surylghv sxuho| orfdo ehqhwv1 Zh vkrz wkdw wklv
kdv wkh reylrxv lpsolfdwlrq wkdw li zh pryh dzd| iurp wkh dvvxpswlrq ri d vlqjoh
vrfldo sodqqhu +zkr zrxog kdyh wr eh d joredo jryhuqphqw ri vrph w|sh, dqg uhfrj0
ql}h wkdw lqglylgxdo qdwlrq vwdwhv pd| vhw wkhlu dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq srolflhv
lqghshqghqwo| wkhq wkh qrqfrrshudwlyh rxwfrph zloo lqyroyh hdfk vwdwh vhwwlqj wrr
olwwoh plwljdwlrq dqg wrr pxfk dgdswdwlrq/ uhodwlyh wr wkh fdvh ri d vlqjoh joredo vr0
fldo sodqqhu1 Wklv djdlq uh hfwv wkh idfw wkdw dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq duh irupdoo|
vxevwlwxwhv iru hdfk rwkhu1 Wkhq zh h{whqg wkh prgho wr wzr shulrgv lq vhfwlrq 71
Plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq dovr glhu lq wkhlu whpsrudo dvshfwv lq wkdw wkh hhfwv
ri plwljdwlrq lq rqh shulrg zloo surgxfh ehqhwv iru doo ixwxuh shulrgv zkloh dgds0
wdwlrq lv riwhq wkrxjkw wr surgxfh ehqhwv rqo| iru wkh shulrg lq zklfk dgdswdwlrq
wdnhv sodfh1 Krzhyhu zkloh wklv pd| eh wuxh/ d iruzdug orrnlqj vrfldo sodqqhu zloo
zdqw wr fkrrvh wlph sdwkv iru erwk plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq zklfk duh rswlpdo/


Vhh LSFF +4<<9,/ Slhonh +4<<;,1

4
dqg lq d eurdg vhqvh doo wkh uhvxowv iru wkh vwdwlf prgho fduu| ryhu wr d g|qdplf
prgho/ lqfoxglqj wkh qrwlrq wkdw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq duh vxevwlwxwhv1 Wkhq
zh frqvlghu lq vhfwlrq 8 zkhwkhu pdnlqj dgdswdwlrq frvwv ghshqg rq wkh dprxqw ri
plwljdwlrq pdnhv d glhuhqfh/ dqg vkrz wkdw wklv fdq doorz iru wkh srvvlelolw| ri d
frpsohphqwdu| uhodwlrqvkls lq wkh suhflvh hfrqrplf vhqvh1
Lq doo ri vhfwlrqv 5 wr 8 wkh prghov frqvlghuhg duh rqhv ri fhuwdlqw|1 Vhfwlrq 9
frqvlghuv d prgho zklfk lqfoxghv xqfhuwdlqw|1 Lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr vkrz wkdw li
rqh lqwurgxfhv dq h{rjhqrxv ulvn ri folpdwh fkdqjh gdpdjhv lqwr wkh vlpsoh prghov
ri wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrqv/ wkhq wkh pdlq uhvxowv jr wkurxjk lq d vwudljkwiruzdug zd|=
dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh ulvn ri folpdwh fkdqjh zloo fdxvh wkh rswlpdo ohyhov ri plwljdwlrq
dqg dgdswdwlrq wr ulvh/ exw dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq uhpdlq vxevwlwxwhv1 Vr zh
wkhq orrn dw lqwurgxflqj xqfhuwdlqw| dv dq hqgrjhqrxv idfwru1 Wklv lv grqh e| xvlqj
d vlpsolhg yhuvlrq ri wkh Ndqh0Vkrjuhq +5333, prgho1 Wkh| rewdlq voljkwo| glhuhqw
uhvxowv e| xvlqj d vwdwlf prgho lq zklfk dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq sod| dv|pphwulf
urohv= wkh ohyho ri gdpdjh frvwv fdq eh uhgxfhg e| dgdswdwlrq/ exw plwljdwlrq uhgxfhv
wkh ulvn ri folpdwh fkdqjh/ vr ulvn lv qrz hqgrjhqrxv1 Wkh| vkrz wkdw dq h{rjhqrxv
lqfuhdvh lq ulvn kdv dq dpeljxrxv hhfw 0 lw dozd|v ohdgv wr dq lqfuhdvh lq dgdswdwlrq
exw wkh hhfw rq plwljdwlrq ghshqgv rq zkhwkhu dq h{rjhqrxv lqfuhdvh lq ulvn fdxvhv
dq lqfuhdvh ru ghfuhdvh lq wkh pdujlqdo hhfwlyhqhvv ri plwljdwlrq lq uhgxflqj ulvn/
dqg wkh| jlyh h{dpsohv ri krz wklv hhfw frxog jr hlwkhu zd|1

5 Vlqjoh Wlph Shulrg/ Qr Xqfhuwdlqw|/ Vlqjoh Vr0

fldo Sodqqhu
Zh frqvlghu d prgho ri folpdwh fkdqjh lq zklfk wkh frvwv ri folpdwh fkdqjh ghshqg
rq krz pxfk zh hlwkhu plwljdwh ru dgdsw1 Exw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq erwk dovr
lqfxu frvwv/ dqg zh vhw rxw ehorz d vlpsoh prgho ri wkh vshflfdwlrq ri wklv1
Ohw 6 eh wkh ohyho ri plwljdwlrq/ @ eh wkh ohyho ri dgdswdwlrq1 Wrwdo gdpdjh frvwv
iurp Folpdwh Fkdqjh duh B( E6c @ zkhuh B lv d sdudphwhu dhfwlqj wkh vhyhulw| ri
gdpdjh frvwv 1 Zh pdnh wkh iroorzlqj dvvxpswlrqv derxw gdpdjh frvwv1 Wkh uvw
irxu duh wkrvh iru frqfdylw| ri wkh gdpdjh ixqfwlrq1 Dvvxpswlrq D418 hqvxuhv wkdw
zh rewdlq dssursuldwh frpsdudwlyh vwdwlf uhvxowv

(  fc (  f +D414,

(  : fc (  : f +D415,

(  ' (   f +D416,


Lq wklv vshflfdwlrq ri wkh sureohp/ rqh idfwru zklfk frxog dhfw wkh vhyhulw| ri gdpdjh frvwv
lv wkh ohyho ri Exvlqhvv0dv0Xvxdo hplvvlrqv/ l1h1 hplvvlrqv zkhq erwk p dqg d duh }hur1

5
 4? i(  c (   j  (   +D417,
       
 (     (    (    (  
 : c  :  +D418,
 (   (   (   ( 

D414 vd|v vlpso| wkdw lqfuhdvlqj plwljdwlrq ru dgdswdwlrq uhgxfhv gdpdjh frvwv/
zkloh D415 vd|v wkdw wkhuh duh glplqlvklqj uhwxuqv wr plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq1 D416
vd|v wkdw lqfuhdvlqj dgdswdwlrq uhgxfhv lq devroxwh whupv wkh pdujlqdo uhgxfwlrq lq
gdpdjh e| wkh odvw xqlw ri plwljdwlrq dqg ylfh yhuvd1 D417 dqg D418 vlpso| vd| wkdw
wkh rzq hhfwv ri dq lqfuhdvh lq plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq kdyh d eljjhu hhfw rq
rzq pdujlqdo uhgxfwlrq lq gdpdjh frvwv wkdq wkh furvv hhfwv erwk lq devroxwh +D417,
dqg lq uhodwlyh whupv +D418,1
Zh ghqrwh e|  E6 wrwdo plwljdwlrq frvwv/ dqg  E@( k wrwdo dgdswdwlrq frvwv/
zkhuh k lv d sdudphwhu uh hfwlqj krz frvwo| lw lv wr fduu| rxw dgdswdwlrq1 Zh dvvxph
wkdw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq frvwv duh vwulfwo| frqyh{1

 : fc  : fc  : fc  : f

Wkh vrfldo sodqqhu*v sureohp lv wr fkrrvh 6 dqg @ wr plqlpl}h wrwdo frvwv dulvlqj
iurp folpdwh fkdqjh gdpdjh frvwv/ dgdswdwlrq frvwv/ dqg plwljdwlrq frvwv
E6c @ m Bc k  B(E6c @ n  E6 n kE@
Iru zklfk wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv duh
   B(  n  ' fc +4,

   B(  n k ' f +5,

Wkhvh duh mxvw wkh xvxdo frqglwlrqv wkdw pdujlqdo frvwv ri plwljdwlrq vkrxog htxdo
vdylqj lq uhgxfhg gdpdjh frvw iurp plwljdwlrq/ dqg vlploduo| iru dgdswdwlrq1 Ghqrwh
wkh rswlpdo vroxwlrq wr wkh frvw plqlpl}dwlrq sureohp e| 6 EBc k dqg @ EBc k 
 

Zh qrz wxuq wr frpsdudwlyh vwdwlfv ri krz 6 dqg @ fkdqjh dv B dqg k ydu|1

 

Frqvlghu uvw wkh hhfw ri dq lqfuhdvh lq gdpdjh frvwv/ uhsuhvhqwhg e| dq lqfuhdvh lq

B Wkhq
Y6        

' c +6,
YB {
  
Qrwlfh wkdw F  @ G  . P A 3> F @ G . D A 3=
Ilqdoo| qrwh wkdw
F  @ G  ? 3> F @ G ? 3>

F  @ 3> F  @ D A 3=

6
 Y@          

'  +7,
YB {
zkhuh

{ '           

Zh kdyh { : f e| D415/ D417/ dqg wkh dvvxpswlrqv rq

 dqg 
E| D418/ lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr vkrz wkdw : fc : f Vr dq lqfuhdvh lq

 
gdpdjh frvwv lqfuhdvhv erwk plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq1
Qrz frph wr wkh hhfw ri dq lqfuhdvh lq dgdswdwlrq frvwv/ uhsuhvhqwhg e| dq
lqfuhdvh lq k Wkhq zh zloo kdyh vlqfh   ' B(  / dqg (  : f/ (   f

Y6   


' : fc +8,
Yk {

Y@    


' f +9,
Yk {
Vr pdnlqj dgdswdwlrq pruh h{shqvlyh uhgxfhv wkh dprxqw ri dgdswdwlrq dqg lqfuhdvhv
wkh dprxqw ri plwljdwlrq1 Lq wklv vhqvh/ dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq duh vxevwlwxwhv1
Wklv iroorzv iurp wkh dvvxpswlrq rq wkh gdpdjh frvw ixqfwlrq wkdw dq lqfuhdvh lq
plwljdwlrq/ vd|/ uhgxfhv wkh pdujlqdo uhgxfwlrq lq gdpdjhv wkdw fdq eh dfklhyhg e|
wkh pdujlqdo xqlw ri dgdswdwlrq1
Ri frxuvh/ wklv prgho lv h{wuhpho| vlpsoh dqg lw lv zruwk qrwlqj d qxpehu ri zd|v
lq zklfk wkh uhvxow pd| qrw eh urexvw ehiruh h{whqglqj wkh prgho lq pruh vxevwdqwldo
zd|v1
+d, Lq wkh deryh dqdo|vlv zh dvvxph dq lqwhulru vroxwlrq dqg wklv zloo fhuwdlqo| eh
wkh fdvh li

B(  Efc  fc  Ef ' fc B(  Ec f fc k Ef ' fc

dv lv riwhq dvvxphg +l1h1 dw uvw/ wkh frvw ri plwljdwlrq ru dgdswdwlrq lv hhfwlyho|

frvwohvv,1 Ri frxuvh li  Ef : B(  Efc @  wkhq lw lv rswlpdo rqo| wr dgdsw/ zkhq



k Ef : B(  E6 c f lw lv rswlpdo rqo| wr plwljdwh1 Krzhyhu/ zklovw wkhvh fruqhu



vroxwlrqv duh wkhruhwlfdoo| srvvleoh/ wkh| gr qrw vhhp wr eh hpslulfdoo| uhohydqw1

+e, Wkh prgho dvvxphv wkdw Dvvxpswlrq 4 krogv/ zklfk hqvxuhv wkdw wkhuh lv d
xqltxh vroxwlrq wr wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv dqg wkdw wkh frpsdudwlyh vwdwlfv h{huflvh
lv dssursuldwh1 Lw lv srvvleoh wkdw gdpdjh frvwv duh qrw dv zhoo ehkdyhg dv wklv/ dqg
wkdw wkhuh duh vljqlfdqw qrq0frqyh{lwlhv1 Lw lv zhoo nqrzq wkdw vxfk qrq0frqyh{lwlhv
srvh gl!fxowlhv iru wkh frqyhqwlrqdo dqdo|vlv ri rswlpdo h{whuqdolw| srolflhv +vhh Gdv0
jxswd dqg Pçohu +5336,, dqg wkh sureohp ri Wkhuprkdolqh flufxodwlrq pd| eh mxvw
vxfk dq lvvxh ri qrq0frqyh{lwlhv +wkrxjk uhodwhg wr g|qdplfv,1 Iru wkh sxusrvhv ri

7
wklv vxuyh|/ zh vkdoo frqwlqxh wr dvvxph wkdw wkh vhfrqg ghulydwlyhv ri wkh gdpdjh
frvw ixqfwlrq kdyh wkh vljqv vkrzq lq Dvvxpswlrq 41
+f, Wkh prgho lv d yhu| vlpsoh sduwldo htxloleulxp prgho/ dqg lw lv zhoo nqrzq
wkdw jrrgv ru dfwlylwlhv zklfk duh vxevwlwxwhv lq sduwldo htxloleulxp dqdo|vlv pd|
qrw eh vxevwlwxwhv lq d jhqhudo htxloleulxp dqdo|vlv1 Wkxv lqfuhdvlqj plwljdwlrq pd|
dhfw rwkhu sulfhv lq wkh hfrqrp|/ hvshfldoo| idfwru sulfhv/ zklfk frxog fdxvh wkh
frvwv ri dgdswdwlrq wr idoo1 Vr/ lqfuhdvlqj plwljdwlrq ri hplvvlrqv frxog fdxvh hqhuj|
sulfhv wr idoo fdxvlqj vrph irupv ri dgdswdwlrq zklfk xvhv hqhuj| lqwhqvlyho| +h1j1
Dlu Frqglwlrqlqj, wr ehfrph fkhdshu dqg vr pruh xvh lv pdgh ri dgdswdwlrq/ vr
pdnlqj dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq frpsohphqwv dw wkh jhqhudo htxloleulxp ohyho1 Zh
duh qrw dzduh wkdw vxfk jhqhudo htxloleulxp hhfwv duh vwurqj hqrxjk wr ryhuwxuq wkh
frqfoxvlrq ri wkh vlpsoh prgho wkdw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq duh vxevwlwxwhv1
+g, Wkhuh lv d voljkwo| glhuhqw dvshfw wr wkh suhylrxv h{dpsoh1 Vxssrvh wkdw zh
ljqruh jhqhudo htxloleulxp hhfwv1 Qhyhuwkhohvv wkh nlqg ri olqn ehwzhhq dgdswdwlrq
dqg plwljdwlrq lv vrphwlphv vxjjhvwhg wr srvvleo| fdxvh wkh sureohp ri pdodgdswd0
wlrq 1 Vxssrvh rqh irup ri dgdswdwlrq uhtxluhv xvh ri hqhuj| +h1j1 Dlu Frqglwlrqlqj,/


lv lw srvvleoh wkdw wkh dgglwlrqdo hplvvlrqv fdxvhg e| xvh ri dlu frqglwlrqlqj frxog
fdxvh dgglwlrqdo gdpdjh vx!flhqw wr rxwzhljk wkh gluhfw dgdswdwlrq ehqhw ri xvlqj
Dlu FrqglwlrqlqjB Wr h{dplqh wklv lq wkh frqwh{w ri wkh prgho/ vxssrvh wkdw wkh
gdpdjh ixqfwlrq lv zulwwhq dv=

B(E6  >E@c @c

zkhuh >E@ fdswxuhv rvhwv wr plwljdwlrq fdxvhg e| wkh xvh ri d sduwlfxodu dgdswdwlrq
vwudwhj|1
Wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv duh=
B(  n  ' fc +:,

B(   B(  > n k ' f +;,

Qrz vxssrvh wkdw k fdswxuhv doo ri wkh gluhfw frvw ri wkh dgdswdwlrq vwudwhj|/
lqfoxglqj wkh frvw ri dq| hqhuj| xvhg e| wkh dgdswdwlrq vwudwhj|/ exw h{foxglqj wkh
vrfldo frvw ri wkh hplvvlrqv jhqhudwhg e| wkh dgdswdwlrq1 Wkhq iurp +;, lw lv srvvleoh
wkdw
B(  Ee c f : k Efc


!
Wklv kdv ehhq uhfrjqlvhg dv d sureohp iru d yhu| orqj wlph1 Iru h{dpsoh/ Kxqwlqjwrq +4<4:,
glvfxvvhv folpdwh fkdqjh lq wkh frqwh{w ri wkh ghfolqh ri wkh Urpdq Hpsluh dqg vxjjhvwv wkdw
fkdqjhv
" lq udlqidoo sdwwhuqv ohg wr fkdqjhv lq djulfxowxudo sudfwlfhv wkdw h{dfhuedwhg wkrvh1
Rwkhu srvvleoh fdxvhv ri pdodgdswdwlrq duh wkurxjk frpshwlwlrq iru uhvrxufhv ehwzhhq plwljdwlrq
dqg idflolwdwlyh dgdswdwlrq/ Wro +5336,/ lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh hhfwv rq khdowk lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv/
Edelnhu hw do1 +5333,1 Vfkhudjd dqg Judpevfk +4<<;, uhihu wr pdodgdswdwlrq gxh wr vxerswlpdo
sulydwh ghflvlrqv/ exw wklv lv pruh d fdvh ri pdo0uhjxodwlrq1

8
vr lw orrnv dv li lw lv sulydwho| ghvludeoh wr xvh wkh dgdswdwlrq vwudwhj| edvhg rq wkh
pdujlqdo frvwv dw }hur ohyho ri dgdswdwlrq1
Exw lw pd| dovr eh wuxh wkdw
B(  Ee c f mB(  Ee c f> Efm n k Efc
 

vr wkdw zkhq rqh wdnhv dffrxqw ri wkh gdpdjh frvw ri wkh h{wud hplvvlrqv/ lw zrxog
qrw eh zruwk xvlqj wkh dgdswdwlrq vwudwhj|/ djdlq dw }hur ohyho ri dgdswdwlrq edvhg
rq pdujlqdo frvwv exw qrz lqfoxglqj wkh vrfldo frvwv ri wkh dgdswdwlrq vwudwhj|1
Vr lw orrnv dv li wkhuh lv srwhqwldo pdodgdswdwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ wklv uhvxowv iurp
dvvxplqj wkdw wkh gdpdjh frvw ri wkh hplvvlrqv/ zklfk zloo dulvh iurp wkh dgdswdwlrq
hplvvlrqv/ kdyh qrw ehhq idfwruhg lqwr wkh sulydwh frvwv ri dgdswdwlrq1 Exw surylghg
plwljdwlrq lv rswlpdoo| uhjxodwhg/ dw wkh dgdswdwlrq vwdjh zh gr qrw qhhg wr idfwru
lqwr wkh dgdswdwlrq frvwv wkh vrfldo frvwv ri dgdswdwlrq hplvvlrqv ehfdxvh wkhvh zloo
kdyh ehhq wdnhq dffrxqw ri lq wkh plwljdwlrq vwudwhj|1 Vr/ lw vkrxog qrw eh wkh fdvh
wkdw wkh vrfldo frvwv ri wkh dgglwlrqdo hplvvlrqv/ dvvrfldwhg zlwk dgdswdwlrq/ kdyh
wr eh uh hfwhg lq wkh xvhu frvw ri dgdswdwlrq1 Wklv lv d fdvh ri dq rswlpdo fruqhu
vroxwlrq zkhuh dgdswdwlrq lv qrw hpsor|hg1 Lw uh hfwv djdlq wkh idfw wkdw plwljdwlrq
dqg dgdswdwlrq qhhg wr eh mrlqwo| ghwhuplqhg1

6 Pxowl0Djhqwv
Dowkrxjk wkh irupdo prgho lv zulwwhq grzq dv wkh sureohp ri d vrfldo sodqqhu fkrrv0
lqj rswlpdo uhjxodwlrq ri dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq lw lv zruwk dvnlqj krz vxfk
rswlpdo srolflhv frxog eh lpsohphqwhg1 Lpsolflw lq wkh glvfxvvlrq lq sduw +g, lv dq
lpsruwdqw glvwlqfwlrq vrphwlphv pdgh ehwzhhq plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq/ qdpho|
wkdw plwljdwlrq zloo fdoo iru vrph irup ri jryhuqphqw uhjxodwlrq wr uh hfw wkh sure0
ohpv ri h{whuqdolwlhv dqg wkh sxeolf jrrg qdwxuh ri plwljdwlrq/ zklovw wkh dgdswdwlrq
ghflvlrq fdq eh ghfhqwudol}hg/ l1h1 ohiw wr lqglylgxdo djhqwv wr zhljk wkh frvwv dqg
ehqhwv ri dgdswlqj1 Zh kdyh dujxhg lq sduw +g, wkdw wklv uhpdlqv wkh fdvh dv orqj
dv plwljdwlrq lv rswlpdoo| uhjxodwhg1 Exw wkhuh lv dqrwkhu lpsruwdqw dvshfw ri wklv
sxeolf jrrg2sulydwh jrrg glvwlqfwlrq1 Iru plwljdwlrq lv d joredo sxeolf jrrg dfwlylw|
vlqfh zkdw dhfwv wkh gdpdjh rq dq| rqh frxqwu| lv wkh joredo ohyho ri plwljdwlrq1
Krzhyhu lw lv uhdvrqdeoh wr vxssrvh wkdw dgdswdwlrq lv d sulydwh ehqhw  dv hdfk
frxqwu|*v dgdswdwlrq dhfwv rqo| wkdw frxqwu|1 Zh fdq fdswxuh wklv glvwlqfwlrq e|
#

vxssrvlqj wkdw wkhuh duh  frxqwulhv/  ' c c c zkhuh iru frxqwu|  wkh dssursuldwh
frvw ixqfwlrq lv
$ S % 
 E  c c % c @$ m B $ c k$   B $ ( n  E6$  n k$  E@$  
$ $ $
&'  6& c @ $

Zh fdq wkhq glvwlqjxlvk irupdo rxwfrphv zkhuh wkh frxqwulhv dfw qrq0frrshudwlyho|
+l1h1 qr Folpdwh Fkdqjh Surwrfro, dqg zkhuh wkh| dfw frrshudwlyho| +l1h1 d joredoo|
elqglqj djuhhphqw,1 Wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv iru wkh wzr fdvhv duh
(
Vhh Kdqhpdqq +5333,/ Ndqh dqg Vkrjuhq +5333,/ Phqghovrq +5333,/ Nohlq hw do1 +5336,1

9
  Qrq0Frrshudwlyh=

B $ (  n  ' fc +<,
$ $*)

B $ (  n k$  ' f +43,
$ $)

 Frrshudwlyh=

[ &
B & (  n  ' fc +44,
$*)

&

B $ (  n k$  ' f +45,
$ $)

+<, dqg +43, duh mxvw wkh dqdorjxh ri +4, dqg +5, iru hdfk frxqwu|/ dqg vd|v
wkdw hdfk frxqwu| zloo fkrrvh wr plwljdwh dw wkh srlqw zkhuh wkh pdujlqdo frvw ri
dq dgglwlrqdo xqlw ri plwljdwlrq htxdov lwv rzq sulydwh ehqhw iurp plwljdwlrq/ dqg
vlploduo| iru dgdswdwlrq1 Wkh glhuhqfh lq +44, dqg +45, lv wkdw lq wkh plwljdwlrq
ghflvlrq zkdw lv uhohydqw iru hdfk frxqwu| lv wkh pdujlqdo uhgxfwlrq lq joredo gdpdjh
frvwv iurp dq h{wud xqlw ri plwljdwlrq1 Li zh ghqrwh wkh rswlpdo vroxwlrq wr wkh
qrq0frrshudwlyh fdvh e| E6 c @ S  dqg wr Swkh frrshudwlyh fdvh e| E6 c @ c wkhq
% % + +
$ $ $ $

lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr vhh wkdw 6$ c vr wkhuh zloo eh wrr olwwoh joredo

+
6$
%

plwljdwlrq li frxqwulhv gr qrw frrshudwh  wkh vwdqgdug iuhh0ulghu sureohp1 Dowkrxjk

+43, dqg +45, orrn wkh vdph/ ehfdxvh+ wkh ohyho ri plwljdwlrq zloo eh glhuhqw/ lw
lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr vhh wkdw @$ : @$  Vr wkh idloxuh wr jhw joredo djuhhphqw rq
%

plwljdwlrq phdqv wkdw wkhuh zloo eh wrr olwwoh plwljdwlrq/ dqg frxqwulhv uhvsrqg e|
fduu|lqj rxw wrr pxfk dgdswdwlrq1
Ri frxuvh/ lw pxvw eh fohdu wkdw wkh idfw wkdw frxqwulhv lqfuhdvh dgdswdwlrq iurp
@$ wr @$ zkhuh wkhuh lv d idloxuh wr uhdfk dq lqwhuqdwlrqdo djuhhphqw grhv qrw phdq
+ %

wkdw wklv dgdswdwlrq uhvsrqvh lv lpsrvlqj dgglwlrqdo frvwv rq frxqwulhv frpsduhg wr

zkdw wkh| zrxog idfh li wkh| ohiw dgdswdwlrq dw ohyho @$  Ehfdxvh wkh pryh iurp @$
% +

wr @$ lv wkh ehvw uhvsrqvh ri hdfk frxqwu| wr wkh idloxuh wr djuhh rq plwljdwlrq1 Li

%

frxqwulhv mxvw ohiw dgdswdwlrq dw ohyhov @ wkh| zrxog eh hyhq zruvh r li wkhuh lv qr
+
$

djuhhphqw rq plwljdwlrq/ ehfdxvh wkh| zrxog lqfxu hyhq juhdwhu gdpdjh frvwv1

7 Wzr0Shulrg Prghov/ Qr Xqfhuwdlqw|

Dq reylrxv zhdnqhvv ri wkh suhylrxv prgho lv wkdw lw odfnv dq| g|qdplf ihdwxuhv/ dqg
folpdwh fkdqjh lv lqkhuhqwo| g|qdplf1 Khuh zh h{whqg wkh prgho lq wkh vlpsohvw
,

-
Iru h{dpsoh/ Nohlq hw do1 +5336, glvfxvv wkh glhuhqw whpsrudo dvshfwv ri plwljdwlrq dqg dgds0
wdwlrq1

:
srvvleoh zd| wr doorz iru g|qdplfv wr vhh zkdw glhuhqfhv wklv pdnhv wr wkh suhylrxv
frqfoxvlrqv1 Vxssrvh qrz wkdw wkhuh duh wzr wlph shulrgv/ | ' c 2c dqg plwljdwlrq
dqg dgdswdwlrq lq shulrg | duh ghqrwhg e| 6. c @.  Gdpdjhv rffxu dw wkh hqg ri shulrg
2c dqg ghshqg rq fxpxodwlyh plwljdwlrq 6 ' 6  n 6 c dqg fxpxodwlyh dgdswdwlrq
@ ' @  n @  c dqg duh B( E6c @  Frvwv ri plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq lq shulrg | duh
jlyhq e| . E6.  c k. . E@.   Iru vlpsolflw| zh vkdoo ljqruh dq| ghsuhfldwlrq wr wkh
vwrfn ri plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq dqg dovr glvfrxqwlqj1
Wkh vrfldo sodqqhu qrz fkrrvhv 6. c @. wr plqlpl}h lq shulrg 2c

 E6  c 6 c @  c @  m Bc k    B(E6c @ n  E6  n k    E@  


zlwk uvw rughu frqglwlrqv

   B(  n   ' fc +46,


  B(  n k    ' f +47,


Wkhvh duh mxvw wkh dqdorjxh ri +4, dqg +5, iru wkh rqh shulrg sureohp1 Ghqrwlqj wkh
vroxwlrq e| 6 E6  c @  c Bc k  c @  E6  c @  c Bc k  / zh kdyh wkh qrupdo uhvxowv
 

Y6 Y6 Y@  Y@ 
   
: fc : fc : fc f
YB Yk  YB Yk 
Wxuqlqj wr wkh hhfwv ri d fkdqjh lq uvw shulrg plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq/ qrwh
wkdw

 ' B(   : fc   ' B(   fc

 0/  1/

 ' B(   fc   ' B(  : f

 2/  2/

{ '          : fc

    

Lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr vkrz wkdw

Y6

EB(  n k    


'  n  c
Y6  {
34
vr  1/ f

Y@  B(  


' c
Y6  {
 4  4  4
vr   / fc dqg   / n  / f

;
 Vr lqfuhdvlqj plwljdwlrq e|  xqlw lq shulrg  uhgxfhv plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq
lq shulrg 2c exw e| ohvv wkdq xqlwlq wrwdo1 Vlplodu uhvxowv dsso| iru dq lqfuhdvh lq
4
dgdswdwlrq ri  xqlw/  2/ n / f
4

Ohw

 E6  c @  c Bc k    B(E6  n 6 c @  n @   n   E6  n k    E@  
     

Wxuqlqj wr wkh uvw shulrg/ wkh sureohp ri wkh vrfldo sodqqhu lv ghwhuplqh 6  c @  wr
plqlpl}h

 ' n   E6   n k    E@  
  

Iru zklfk wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv duh=

  '   n   ' B(  n   ' fc

  

 '   n k    ' B(  n k    ' f

  

Ohw wkh vroxwlrq wr wkh deryh wzr htxdwlrqv eh ghqrwhg e| 6  EBc k  c k  c @  EBc k  c k  
 

Wr dvvhvv wkh surshuwlhv ri wkhvh ixqfwlrqv qrwh wkdw=

  
Y6 Y@ 

  ' B(   n n B(  n   : fc


Y6  Y6 

 
Y6 Y@ 
 
  ' B(   n B(  n : fc

Y@  Y@ 

  
Y6 Y@ 

  ' B( 5  n n B(  : fc

Y6  Y6 

 
Y6 Y@ 
 
  ' B(  n B(  n n k    : fc


Y@  Y@ 

{ '          : fc

    

Y6 Y@ 
 
  ' (  n B(  n B(  c

YB YB

Y6 Y@ 
 
  ' (  n B(  n B(   c

YB YB

<
  6 ' fc
 /

 6 '   : f


Lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug li whglrxv wr vkrz wkdw

Y6  Y6  Y@  Y@ 
   
: fc : fc : fc f
YB Yk  YB Yk 
Vr djdlq wkh uhvxowv iru wkh rqh shulrg prgho fduu| ryhu1 Lq vxppdu|/ doo wkh
uhvxowv iurp wkh rqh0shulrg prgho fduu| ryhu wr wkh g|qdplf prgho1
Djdlq d ihz frpphqwv derxw urexvwqhvv duh lq rughu1 Wkhvh prghov dvvxph
gdpdjh frvwv rffxu rqo| lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg1 Lq wklv vhqvh zh fdq wklqn ri dgdswdwlrq
lq shulrg  dv ehlqj sur0dfwlyh zklovw dgdswdwlrq lq shulrg 2 pljkw eh wkrxjkw dv
uhdfwlyh1 Krzhyhu/ wkh uhvxowv duh urexvw wr lqfoxglqj gdpdjh frvwv lq hdfk wlph
shulrg/ dowkrxjk lq wklv fdvh lw lv pruh gl!fxow wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq dgdswdwlrq dv
uhdfwlyh ru sur0dfwlyh1 Dgdswdwlrq lq dq| rqh shulrg zloo uh hfw erwk wkh gdpdjh wkdw
rffxuv lq wkdw shulrg dv d uhvxow ri wkh fxuuhqw vwrfn ri juhhqkrxvh jdv hplvvlrqv +vr
fohduo| rq sdvw fkdqjhv,/ exw wr wkh h{whqw wkdw fxuuhqw dgdswdwlrq exlogv d vwrfn ri
ixwxuh dgdswdwlrq fdslwdo lw dovr khosv wr dgdsw wr ixwxuh folpdwh fkdqjh1 Ri frxuvh/
sduw ri wklv eoxuulqj mxvw uh hfwv wkh idfw wkdw zh xvh d vlpsoh yduldeoh dqg lw sod|v d
vwrfn dqg rz uroh1
Pxfk ri wkh dyru ri wkhvh uhvxowv dovr fduulhv ryhu li zh h{whqg wkh prgho wr dq
lqqlwh0krul}rq prgho1 Qrqh ri wklv vkrxog eh yhu| vxusulvlqj1 Hyhq lq wkh rqh0shulrg
prgho/ xvlqj d vlqjoh yduldeoh wr fdswxuh plwljdwlrq dqg d vlqjoh yduldeoh wr fdswxuh
dgdswdwlrq lv d jurvv vlpsolfdwlrq1 Wkhuh zloo eh pdq| irupv ri plwljdwlrq dqg
dgdswdwlrq1 Exw li gdpdjhv lqfuhdvh wkh jhqhudo h!flhqf| dujxphqw zrxog vxjjhvw zh
vkrxog lqfuhdvh doo irupv ri dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq zkloh li doo irupv ri dgdswdwlrq
ehfrph pruh h{shqvlyh wkhq zh zrxog h{shfw wr vhh ohvv dgdswdwlrq ri doo nlqgv dqg
pruh plwljdwlrq ri doo nlqgv1 Dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq lq glhuhqw wlph shulrgv duh
mxvw glhuhqw zd|v ri dgdswlqj dqg plwljdwlqj1

8 Zkhq Frvw ri Dgdswdwlrq Ghshqgv rq Dprxqw

ri Plwljdwlrq
Wr jhw d pruh lqwhuhvwlqj rxwfrph zh qhhg wr lqwurgxfh g|qdplf frqvlghudwlrqv lq d
pruh lqwhuhvwlqj zd|1 Rqh dujxphqw vrphwlphv dgydqfhg lv wkdw dgdswdwlrq pd| eh
kdughu wr lpsohphqw li wkh udwh ri fkdqjh ri folpdwh lv idvw1 Qrz lw lv qrw fohdu zkdw
7

xqghuolhv wklv eholhi1 Sduw ri lw pljkw uh hfw lvvxhv wr gr zlwk wkh delolw| wr ohduq/ exw
wkdw fdqqrw eh fdswxuhg lq wkh prgho vr idu zklfk dvvxphv fhuwdlqw|1 Sduwo| wklv frxog
8
Vhh LSFF +5334,/ Vdodwkì +5336,1

43
mxvw uh hfw wkh idfw wkdw lw wdnhv wlph wr dffxpxodwh d vwrfn ri dgdswlyh fdslwdo  li
rqh kdv pdq| ghfdghv dydlodeoh wkhq wkh frvwv ri prylqj d frdvwdo flw| lqodqg zloo eh
uhodwlyho| vpdoo frpsduhg wr wkh frvwv ri grlqj wklv zlwklq d ihz ghfdghv/ hvvhqwldoo|
ehfdxvh wkh iruphu fdq uho| rq wkh qdwxudo surfhvv ri uhsodflqj revrohvfhqw fdslwdo wr
dfklhyh dgdswdwlrq/ zkhuhdv lq wkh odwwhu rqh kdv wr uhwluh fdslwdo hduo|1 Wklv hhfw
lv douhdg| fdswxuhg/ doehlw fuxgho|/ e| dvvxplqj lqfuhdvlqj frvw ri dgglqj wr wkh qhz
vwrfn ri fdslwdo lq dq| rqh shulrg/ vr dq| lqfuhdvh lq wkrvh frvwv zloo douhdg| eh
fdswxuhg e| wkh vkliw sdudphwhu k$  Wkh lqfuhdvhg gl!fxow| ri dgdswdwlrq wkh idvwhu
wkh fkdqjh lq folpdwh fdq dovr uh hfw sureohpv iru qrq0kxpdq djhqwv zkhuh ryhu wlph
vshflhv pljkw eh deoh wr pljudwh ru pxwdwh wr dgdsw wr folpdwh fkdqjh/ exw li lw lv wrr
udslg wkh| frxog eh zlshg rxw1 Krzhyhu/ zkdw zh duh frqfhuqhg zlwk khuh lv krz wkh
vshhg ri folpdwh fkdqjh pljkw dhfw kxpdq dgdswdwlrq1 Zkdwhyhu wkh xqghuo|lqj
h{sodqdwlrq/ d fuxgh zd| ri fdswxulqj wklv lq rxu prgho pljkw eh wr dvvxph wkdw lq
shulrg 2 +zh frqvlghu shulrg 2 mxvw iru vlpsolflw|, wkh frvwv ri dgdswdwlrq dovr ghshqg
rq wkh ohyho ri plwljdwlrq lq shulrg 2c zlwk pruh plwljdwlrq lq shulrg 2 +vorzhu udwh
ri fkdqjh ri folpdwh lq shulrg 2, uhgxflqj wkh frvw ri dgdswdwlrq1 Vr zh frxog zulwh
dgdswdwlrq frvwv lq shulrg 2 dv

 E@  c 6 c |   fc    : fc   fc
   

vr pruh plwljdwlrq uhgxfhv erwk wrwdo dqg pdujlqdo frvwv ri dgdswdwlrq1 Iru vlpsolflw|
zh sxw wkh frvw vkliw sdudphwhu rqwr wkh plwljdwlrq frvw1 Wkhq wkh shulrg 2 sureohp
fdq qrz eh zulwwhq dv fkrrvh 6 c @  wr plqlpl}h
e   B(E6c @ n >  E6   n   E@  c 6 c


zlwk uvw rughu frqglwlrqv=

e   B(  n >  n   ' fc
)


e   B(  n   ' f


Qrz
e  ' B(  n >  n    : fc
))


e  ' B(   n   : fc



 
e ' 
{ e   
e   e  c

e 9 '  : fc


44
 e 9 ' fc


Exw dv   f/ (   fzh duh xqdeoh wr ghqlwho| vljq



e  ' B(  n   c



vr dv

Y6

 e 9
e  
' fc
Y> {e

Y@ 

 e 9
e  
' c
Y> {e
wkhq
   
Y@ 

r}? e  
' r}? 
Y>

zklfk pd| eh srvlwlyh ru qhjdwlyh ghshqglqj rq wkh uhodwlyh pdjqlwxghv ri  



dqg (  1
Vr li wkh hhfwv ri plwljdwlrq rq pdujlqdo dgdswdwlrq frvw lv vwurqj hqrxjk/ plw0
ljdwlrq ohdgv wr orzhu pdujlqdo gdpdjh frvwv iurp dgdswdwlrq/ vr  e  fc khqfh
lqfuhdvlqj plwljdwlrq frvwv zloo uhgxfh erwk plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq1
Wkh frqfoxvlrq lv reylrxv  orzhulqj frvwv ri plwljdwlrq lqfuhdvhv plwljdwlrq zklfk
vorzv Folpdwh Fkdqjh dqg pdnhv dgdswdwlrq pruh hhfwlyh1 Vr qrz plwljdwlrq dqg
dgdswdwlrq zrxog eh frpsohphqwv1

9 Hqgrjhqlvlqj Ulvn
Zh qrz doorz iru xqfhuwdlqw| derxw gdpdjh frvwv1 Ohw Z eh wkh suredelolw| ri srvlwlyh
gdpdjh frvwv/   Z wkh suredelolw| ri qr gdpdjh frvwv1 Zh dvvxph wkdw Z ghshqgv
rq d sdudphwhu/ 41 Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh dovr doorz iru Z wr ghshqg hqgrjhqrxvo| rq
wkh ohyho ri plwljdwlrq1 Wklv |lhogv d prgho vlplodu wr wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq exw zlwk
hqgrjhqrxv ulvn dorqj wkh olqhv vxjjhvwhg e| Ndqh dqg Vkrjuhq +5333,1 Krzhyhu
plwljdwlrq rqo| dhfwv wkh suredelolw| ri gdpdjh dqg qrw lwv ohyho zklfk ghshqgv
vroho| rq wkh dprxqw ri dgdswdwlrq1 Wkh dqdo|vlv surylghg khuh vkrzv wkdw zh rewdlq
wkh vdph jhqhudo frqfoxvlrq wkdw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq zloo eh vxevwlwxwhv/ dqg
vr wkdw rxu uhvxow iurp wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq lv urexvw wr h{whqvlrq wr hqgrjhqrxv
suredelolw|1

45
 Wkh remhfwlyh ixqfwlrq lv qrz dv iroorzv=
: 4?
0; < Z E4c 6 ( E@ n  E6 n k E@ c
 4 =  4 =
zkhuh zh
kdyh 

fc > : fc  4 : fc dqg > f( ( fc ( : fc  : fc
= =

 : f  : fc  : f

Wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv zklfk ghwhuplqh wkh rswlpdo pl{ ri plwljdwlrq dqg
dgdswdwlrq duh dv iroorzv=
YZ
 n ( ' f +48,

Y6
k n Z E4c 6 ( ' f +49,

Qh{w zh gr frpsdudwlyh vwdwlfv dqdo|vlv1 Iluvw wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv glhuhqwldwh
zlwk uhvshfw wr 4c zh kdyh
Y@ Y6 YZ

5 n 5 ' (c
Y4 Y4 Y4
Y@ Y6 Y Z

5? n 5@ ' (c
Y4 Y4 Y4Y6
 4 =
zkhuh zh kdyh 5  ' Z( n k : fc 5  ' 5 ? '  ( : fc 5@ '  4 ( n  : fc dqg

=

{ ' 5  5@  5  5? : f Lw suryhv wkdw

     
Y@  YZ
Y Z
' 5@  ( n 5  ( c
Y4 { Y4 Y4Y6
    
Y6  Y Z YZ


' 5  ( n 5? ( 
Y4 { Y4Y6 Y4
Vr zh rewdlq wkh uhvxow wkdw li wkh furvv hhfwv duh qhjoljleoh/ l1h1/ 5  ' 5 ? ' fc
wkhq > : fc dqg > : f/ vr lqfuhdvlqj ulvn ri gdpdjhv lqfuhdvhv erwk plwljdwlrq dqg


dgdswdwlrq1
Qh{w glhuhqwldwlqj wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv zlwk uhvshfw wr kc zh kdyh
Y@ Y6
5 n 5 '  c

Yk Yk
Y@ Y6
5? n 5@ ' fc
Yk Yk
Wklv suryhv wkdw
Y@ 
'  5@  fc

Yk {
Y6 
' 5?  : f

Yk {
dqg vr wkdw zh kdyh wkh uhvxow wkdw plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq duh vxevwlwxwhv1 zklfk
lv zkdw zh rewdlqhg lq vhfwlrq 41

46
: Frqfoxvlrqv
Lq jhqhudo/ zh vkrz wkdw dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq zloo eh vxevwlwxwhv1 Wklv mxvw
uh hfwv wkh udwkhu plog dvvxpswlrq wkdw dq lqfuhdvh lq plwljdwlrq uhgxfhv wkh pdujlqdo
uhgxfwlrq lq gdpdjh frvwv wkdw fdq eh dfklhyhg e| dgdswdwlrq1 Zkhq lv lw srvvleoh
iru frpsohphqwdulw| wr rffxuB Zh irxqg wkdw lw lv srvvleoh iru vxfk frpsohphqwdulw|
lq wkh fdvh wkdw dgdswdwlrq frvwv ghshqg rq wkh dprxqw ri plwljdwlrq1 Wkh fdvh ri
pdodgdswdwlrq lv riwhq vxjjhvwhg dv dqrwkhu uhdvrq zk| plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswdwlrq
frxog eh frpsohphqwv1 Krzhyhu/ lw lv rqo| srvvleoh li wkhuh zhuh vxe0rswlpdo srolflhv
lq rwkhu sduwv ri wkh hfrqrp|/ dqg d fohdu srolf| uhfrpphqgdwlrq hphujhv wkdw wkh
fdxvhv ri wklv vxe0rswlpdolw| vkrxog eh uhpryhg1 Exw fohduo|/ vshfldo uhtxluhphqwv
pd| eh qhhghg iru wklv wr kdsshq1
Wkh idfw wkdw dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq zloo eh vxevwlwxwhv frqupv wkh ylhz ri
Ndqh dqg \rkh +5333, dqg Sduu| hw do1 +5333, wkdw zh qhhg wr kdyh dq lqwhjudwhg
dssurdfk wr dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq/ dqg zh fdqqrw uho| rq hlwkhu plwljdwlrq
dorqh ru dgdswdwlrq dorqh wr ghdo zlwk folpdwh fkdqjh1 Wklv uhvxow grhv qrw fkdqjh
li zh lqwurgxfh hqgrjhqrxv ulvn lqwr wkh prgho1 Lw rqo| fkdqjhv zkhq zh pdnh wkh
dgdswdwlrq frvw ghshqg rq wkh dprxqw ri plwljdwlrq1
Rqo| lq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh hhfwv ri plwljdwlrq rq pdujlqdo dgdswdwlrq frvw lv
vwurqj gr zh jhw wkdw lqfuhdvlqj plwljdwlrq frvwv zloo uhgxfh erwk plwljdwlrq dqg
dgdswdwlrq1 Vr wkdw orzhulqj wkh frvwv ri plwljdwlrq lqfuhdvhv plwljdwlrq zklfk vorzv
Folpdwh Fkdqjh dqg pdnhv dgdswdwlrq pruh hhfwlyh1 Khuh plwljdwlrq dqg dgdswd0
wlrq zrxog eh frpsohphqwv1

Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Edelnhu/ P1/ Uhloo|/ M1 dqg Mdfre|/ K1 +5333,1 Wkh N|rwr Surwrfro dqg ghyho0
rslqj frxqwulhv/ Hqhuj| Srolf|/ yro1 5;/ ss1 8580691

^5` Gdvjxswd/ S1 dqg Pçohu/ N10J1 +5336,1 Wkh hfrqrplfv ri qrq0frqyh{ hfrv|v0
whpv= Lqwurgxfwlrq/ Hqylurqphqwdo dqg Uhvrxufh Hfrqrplfv/ yro1 59/ ss1 7<<0
8581

^6` Kdqhpdqq/ Z1 +5333,1 Dgdswdwlrq dqg lwv phdvxuhphqw= Dq Hglwruldo/ Fol0

pdwlf Fkdqjh/ yro1 78/ ss1 8:408;41

^7` Kxqwlqjwrq/ H1 +4<4:,1 Folpdwlf Fkdqjh dqg Djulfxowxudo H{kdxvwlrq dv Hoh0

phqwv lq wkh Idoo ri Urph/ Wkh Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ yro1 64/ ss1
4:6053;1

^8` Lqjkdp/ D1/ Pd/ M1/ dqg Xosk/ D1 +5338,1 Krz gr wkh frvwv ri dgdswdwlrq
dhfw rswlpdo plwljdwlrq zkhq wkhuh lv xqfhuwdlqw|/ luuhyhuvlelolw| dqg ohduqlqjB/
plphr1

47
 ^9` Lqwhujryhuqphqwdo Sdqho rq Folpdwh Fkdqjh +LSFF,1 +4<<9,1 +U1W1 Zdwvrq/ P1
F1 ]lq|rhzhud/ dqg U1 K1 Prvv/ Hgv1, Folpdwh Fkdqjh 4<<8 0 Lpsdfwv/ Dgds0
wdwlrqv dqg Plwljdwlrq ri Folpdwh Fkdqjh= Vflhqwlf0Whfkqlfdo Dqdo|vhv1 Fdp0
eulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1

^:` Lqwhujryhuqphqwdo Sdqho rq Folpdwh Fkdqjh +LSFF,1 +5334,1 +M1 M1 PfFduwk|/

R1 I1 Fdq}ldql/ Q1 D1 Ohdu|/ G1 M1 Grnnhq/ dqg N1 V1 Zklwh/ Hgv1, Folpdwh
Fkdqjh 5334 0 Lpsdfwv/ Dgdswdwlrq/ dqg Yxoqhudelolw|1 Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh
Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1

^;` Ndqh/ V1 dqg Vkrjuhq/ M1 I1 +5333,1 Olqnlqj dgdswdwlrq dqg plwljdwlrq lq fol0
pdwh fkdqjh srolf|/ Folpdwlf Fkdqjh/ yro1 78/ ss1 :804351

^<` Ndqh/ V1 dqg \rkh/ J1 +5333,1 Vrflhwdo dgdswdwlrq wr folpdwh yduldelolw| dqg
fkdqjh= dq lqwurgxfwlrq/ Folpdwlf Fkdqjh/ yro1 78/ ss1 4071

^43` Nohlq/ U1 M1 W1 +5336,1 Sduw 6 ri Uhvlolhqfh dqg Dgdswdwlrq wr Folpdwh Fkdqjh=

Dq Lqwhuglvflsolqdu| Shuvshfwlyh/ SkG Wkhvlv/ Fkulvwldq0Doeuhfkwv0Xqlyhuvlwçw
}x Nlho1

^44` Nohlq/ U1 M1 W1/ Vfklsshu/ H1 O1 dqg Ghvvdl/ V1 +5336,1 Lqwhjudwlqj plwljdwlrq

dqg dgdswdwlrq lqwr folpdwh dqg ghyhorsphqw srolf|= Wkuhh uhvhdufk txhvwlrqv/
W|qgdoo Fhqwuh Zrunlqj Sdshu 731

^45` Phqghovrq/ U1 +5333,1 H!flhqw dgdswdwlrq wr folpdwh fkdqjh/ Folpdwlf

Fkdqjh/ yro1 78/ ss1 8;609331

^46` Sduu|/ P1/ Duqhoo/ Q1/ PfPlfkdho/ W1/ Qlfkroov/ U1/ Pduwhqv/ S1/ Nrydwv/ V1/
Olyhupruh/ P1/ Urvhq}zhlj/ F1/ Ljohvldv/ D1 dqg Ilvfkhu/ J1 +5333,1 Ploolrqv dw
ulvn= ghqlqj fulwlfdo folpdwh fkdqjh wkuhdwv dqg wdujhwv/ Joredo Hqylurqphqwdo
Fkdqjh/ yro1 44/ ss1 4;404;61

^47` Slhonh/ U1 D1/ Mu1 +4<<;,1 Uhwklqnlqj wkh uroh ri dgdswdwlrq lq folpdwh srolf|/
Joredo Hqylurqphqwdo Fkdqjh/ yro1 ;/ ss1 48<04:31

^48` Vdodwkì/ W1 +5336,1 Folpdwh fkdqjh dqg zhwodqgv= Lpsdfwv/ dgdswdwlrq/ dqg
plwljdwlrq/ plphr1

^49` Vfkhudjd/ M1 dqg Judpevfk/ D1 +4<<;,1 Ulvnv/ rssruwxqlwlhv/ dqg dgdswdwlrq wr

folpdwh fkdqjh/ Folpdwh Uhvhdufk/ yro1 43/ ss1 ;80<81

^4:` Wro/ U1 V1 M1 +5336,1 Lv wkh xqfhuwdlqw| derxw folpdwh fkdqjh wrr odujh iru
h{shfwhg frvw0ehqhw dqdo|vlvB/ Folpdwlf Fkdqjh/ yro1 89/ ss1 59805;<1

48
The trans-disciplinary Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research undertakes integrated research into the
long-term consequences of climate change for society and into the development of sustainable responses
that governments, business-leaders and decision-makers can evaluate and implement. Achieving these
objectives brings together UK climate scientists, social scientists, engineers and economists in a unique
collaborative research effort.
Research at the Tyndall Centre is organised into four research themes that collectively contribute to all
aspects of the climate change issue: Integrating Frameworks; Decarbonising Modern Societies; Adapting to
Climate Change; and Sustaining the Coastal Zone. All thematic fields address a clear problem posed to
society by climate change, and will generate results to guide the strategic development of climate change
mitigation and adaptation policies at local, national and global scales.
The Tyndall Centre is named after the 19th century UK scientist John Tyndall, who was the first to prove the
Earth’s natural greenhouse effect and suggested that slight changes in atmospheric composition could bring
about climate variations. In addition, he was committed to improving the quality of science education and
knowledge.
The Tyndall Centre is a partnership of the following institutions:
University of East Anglia
UMIST
Southampton Oceanography Centre
University of Southampton
University of Cambridge
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research (University of Sussex)
Institute for Transport Studies (University of Leeds)
Complex Systems Management Centre (Cranfield University)
Energy Research Unit (CLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory)
The Centre is core funded by the following organisations:
Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC)
Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
UK Government Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)

For more information, visit the Tyndall Centre Web site (www.tyndall.ac.uk) or contact:
External Communications Manager
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Phone: +44 (0) 1603 59 3906; Fax: +44 (0) 1603 59 3901
Email: tyndall@uea.ac.uk
Tyndall Working Papers are available online at
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_papers.shtml

Mitchell, T. and Hulme, M. (2000). A Country-by- Köhler, J.H., (2002). Long run technical change
Country Analysis of Past and Future Warming in an energy-environment-economy (E3)
Rates, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 1. model for an IA system: A model of
Kondratiev waves, Tyndall Centre Working Paper
Hulme, M. (2001). Integrated Assessment
15.
Models, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 2.
Adger, W.N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. and
Berkhout, F, Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. J. (2001).
Hulme, M. (2002). Adaptation to climate
Socio-economic futures in climate change
change: Setting the Agenda for Development
impact assessment: using scenarios as
Policy and Research, Tyndall Centre Working
'learning machines', Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 16.
Paper 3.
Dutton, G., (2002). Hydrogen Energy
Barker, T. and Ekins, P. (2001). How High are
Technology, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 17.
the Costs of Kyoto for the US Economy?,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 4. Watson, J. (2002). The development of large
technical systems: implications for hydrogen,
Barnett, J. (2001). The issue of 'Adverse Effects
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 18.
and the Impacts of Response Measures' in the
UNFCCC, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 5. Pridmore, A. and Bristow, A., (2002). The role of
hydrogen in powering road transport, Tyndall
Goodess, C.M., Hulme, M. and Osborn, T. (2001).
Centre Working Paper 19.
The identification and evaluation of suitable
scenario development methods for the Turnpenny, J. (2002). Reviewing organisational
estimation of future probabilities of extreme use of scenarios: Case study - evaluating UK
weather events, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 6. energy policy options, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 20.
Barnett, J. (2001). Security and Climate
Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 7. Watson, W. J. (2002). Renewables and CHP
Deployment in the UK to 2020, Tyndall Centre
Adger, W. N. (2001). Social Capital and Climate
Working Paper 21.
Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 8.
Watson, W.J., Hertin, J., Randall, T., Gough, C.
Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N. (2001). Climate
(2002). Renewable Energy and Combined Heat
Dangers and Atoll Countries, Tyndall Centre
and Power Resources in the UK, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 9.
Working Paper 22.
Gough, C., Taylor, I. and Shackley, S. (2001).
Paavola, J. and Adger, W.N. (2002). Justice and
Burying Carbon under the Sea: An Initial
adaptation to climate change, Tyndall Centre
Exploration of Public Opinions, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 23.
Working Paper 10.
Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2002).
Barker, T. (2001). Representing the Integrated
Impact of Integrating Renewables and CHP
Assessment of Climate Change, Adaptation
into the UK Transmission Network, Tyndall
and Mitigation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 11.
Centre Working Paper 24
Dessai, S., (2001). The climate regime from
Xueguang Wu, Mutale, J., Jenkins, N. and Strbac,
The Hague to Marrakech: Saving or sinking
G. (2003). An investigation of Network
the Kyoto Protocol?, Tyndall Centre Working
Splitting for Fault Level Reduction, Tyndall
Paper 12.
Centre Working Paper 25
Dewick, P., Green K., Miozzo, M., (2002).
Brooks, N. and Adger W.N. (2003). Country level
Technological Change, Industry Structure and
risk measures of climate-related natural
the Environment, Tyndall Centre Working Paper
disasters and implications for adaptation to
13.
climate change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26
Shackley, S. and Gough, C., (2002). The Use of
Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003). Building
Integrated Assessment: An Institutional
resilience to climate change through adaptive
Analysis Perspective, Tyndall Centre Working
management of natural resources, Tyndall
Paper 14.
Centre Working Paper 27
Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M., Köhler, J.H.,
Turnpenny, J. and Warren, R. (2003). Defining
and experiencing dangerous climate change,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 28
Brown, K. and Corbera, E. (2003). A Multi-
Criteria Assessment Framework for Carbon-
Mitigation Projects: Putting “development” in
the centre of decision-making, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 29
Hulme, M. (2003). Abrupt climate change: can
society cope?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 30
Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine A. and O’Riordan, T.
(2003). A scoping study of UK user needs for
managing climate futures. Part 1 of the pilot-
phase interactive integrated assessment
process (Aurion Project), Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 31
Xueguang Wu, Jenkins, N. and Strbac, G. (2003).
Integrating Renewables and CHP into the UK
Electricity System: Investigation of the impact
of network faults on the stability of large
offshore wind farms, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 32
Pridmore, A., Bristow, A.L., May, A. D. and Tight,
M.R. (2003). Climate Change, Impacts, Future
Scenarios and the Role of Transport, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 33
Dessai, S., Hulme, M (2003). Does climate policy
need probabilities?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper
34
Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. (2003). Report to
the Cayman Islands’ Government. Adaptation
lessons learned from responding to tropical
cyclones by the Cayman Islands’ Government,
1988 – 2002, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 35
Kröger, K. Fergusson, M. and Skinner, I. (2003).
Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The
Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 36
Ingham, A. and Ulph, A. (2003) Uncertainty,
Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost
of Carbon, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 37
Brooks, N. (2003). Vulnerability, risk and
adaptation: a conceptual framework, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 38
Tompkins, E.L. and Adger, W.N. (2003).
Defining response capacity to enhance climate
change policy, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 39
Klein, R.J.T., Lisa Schipper, E. and Dessai, S.
(2003), Integrating mitigation and adaptation
into climate and development policy: three
research questions, Tyndall Centre Working Paper
40
Watson, J. (2003), UK Electricity Scenarios for
2050, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 41
Kim, J. A. (2003), Sustainable Development and
the CDM: A South African Case Study, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 42
Anderson, D. and Winne, S. (2003),
Innovation and Threshold Effects in
Technology Responses to Climate Change,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 43
Shackley, S., McLachlan, C. and Gough, C. (2004)
The Public Perceptions of Carbon Capture and
Storage, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 44
Purdy, R. and Macrory, R. (2004) Geological
carbon sequestration: critical legal issues,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 45
Watson, J., Tetteh, A., Dutton, G., Bristow, A.,
Kelly, C., Page, M. and Pridmore, A., (2004) UK
Hydrogen Futures to 2050, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 46
Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Gann, D. M., (2004)
Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation
to climate change impacts, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 47
Pan, H. (2004) The evolution of economic
structure under technological development,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 48
Awerbuch, S. (2004) Restructuring our
electricity networks to promote
decarbonisation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 49
Powell, J.C., Peters, M.D., Ruddell, A. & Halliday, J.
(2004) Fuel Cells for a Sustainable Future?
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 50
Agnolucci, P., Barker, T. & Ekins, P. (2004)
Hysteresis and energy demand: the
Announcement Effects and the effects of the
UK climate change levy, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 51
Agnolucci, P. (2004) Ex post evaluations of CO2
–Based Taxes: A Survey, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 52
Agnolucci, P. & Ekins, P. (2004) The
Announcement Effect and environmental
taxation, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 53
Turnpenny, J., Carney, S., Haxeltine, A., &
O’Riordan, T. (2004) Developing regional and
local scenarios for climate change mitigation
and adaptation, Part 1: A framing of the East
of England, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 54
Mitchell, T.D. Carter, T.R., Jones, .P.D, Hulme, M.
and New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of
high-resolution grids of monthly climate for
Europe and the globe: the observed record
(1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100),
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55
Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of social
vulnerability to climate change for Africa,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 56
Shackley, S., Reiche, A. and Mander, S (2004) The
Public Perceptions of Underground Coal
Gasification (UCG): A Pilot Study, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 57
Bray, D and Shackley, S. (2004) The Social
Simulation of The Public Perceptions of
Weather Events and their Effect upon the
Development of Belief in Anthropogenic
Climate Change, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 58
Anderson, D and Winne, S. (2004) Modelling
Innovation and Threshold Effects
In Climate Change Mitigation, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 59
Few, R., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E.L. (2004)
Scaling adaptation: climate change response
and coastal management in the UK, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 60
Brooks, N. (2004) Drought in the African Sahel:
Long term perspectives and future prospects,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 61
Barker, T. (2004) The transition to
sustainability: a comparison of economics
approaches, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 62
Few, R., Ahern, M., Matthies, F. and Kovats, S.
(2004) Floods, health and climate change: a
strategic review, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 63
Peters, M.D. and Powell, J.C. (2004) Fuel Cells for
a Sustainable Future II, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 64
Adger, W. N., Brown, K. and Tompkins, E. L.
(2004) The political economy of cross-scale
networks in resource co-management, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 65
Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A., Lorenzoni, I.,
O’Riordan, T., and Jones, M., (2005) Mapping
actors involved in climate change policy
networks in the UK, Tyndall Centre Working
Paper 66
Turnpenny, J., Haxeltine, A. and O’Riordan, T.,
(2005) Developing regional and local scenarios
for climate change mitigation and adaptation:
Part 2: Scenario creation, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 67
Bleda, M. and Shackley, S. (2005) The formation
of belief in climate change in business
organisations: a dynamic simulation model,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 68
Tompkins, E. L. and Hurlston, L. A. (2005) Natural
hazards and climate change: what knowledge
is transferable?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 69
Abu-Sharkh, S., Li, R., Markvart, T., Ross, N.,
Wilson, P., Yao, R., Steemers, K., Kohler, J. and
Arnold, R. (2005) Can Migrogrids Make a Major
Contribution to UK Energy Supply?, Tyndall
Centre Working Paper 70
Boyd, E. Gutierrez, M. and Chang, M. (2005)
Adapting small-scale CDM sinks projects to
low-income communities, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 71
Lowe, T., Brown, K., Suraje Dessai, S., Doria, M.,
Haynes, K. and Vincent., K (2005) Does tomorrow
ever come? Disaster narrative and public
perceptions of climate change, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 72
Walkden, M. (2005) Coastal process simulator
scoping study, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 73
Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) How do
the costs of adaptation affect optimal
mitigation when there is uncertainty,
irreversibility and learning?, Tyndall Centre
Working Paper 74
Fu, G., Hall, J. W. and Lawry, J. (2005) Beyond
probability: new methods for representing
uncertainty in projections of future climate,
Tyndall Centre Working Paper 75
Agnolucci,. P (2005) The role of political
uncertainty in the Danish renewable energy
market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 76

Barker, T., Pan, H., Köhler, J., Warren., R and

Winne, S. (2005) Avoiding dangerous climate
change by inducing technological progress:
scenarios using a large-scale econometric
model, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 77

Agnolucci,. P (2005) Opportunism and

competition in the non-fossil fuel obligation
market, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 78

Ingham, I., Ma, J., and Ulph, A. M. (2005) Can

adaptation and mitigation be
complements?, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 79