ASSIGNMENT 2

Name : Wahyu Satyaning Budhi

NRP : 03111850080002
S-2 Teknik dan Manajemen Jalan Rel (TMJR) 2018

Problem 1.
Find the probability distribution of the random variable X if X~Bin(10,0.4). Find also P(X=5)
and P(X<2). Then find the mean and variance for X.
Solution.
a. X~Bin(10,0.4)
n = 10 p = 0.4
The random variable X are :
X=4
X=3
X=2

So, the probability from the random variables X are as follows :

𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(4) = 0.2508
P(3) = 0.2150
P(2) = 0.1209

b. X~Bin(10,0.4)
n = 10 p = 0.4
The variable X is 5 (X=5)
So, the probability from the variable X is as follows :
𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(5) = 0.2007

The variables X (X<2) are :

X=0
X=1
So, the probability from the variables X are as follows :
𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(0) = 0.0060
P(1) = 0.0403
∑(𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) ) = 0.0463
Problem 2.
A fair die is rolled 8 times. Find the probability that no more than 2 sixes comes up. Then find
the mean and variance for X.
Solution.
a. The probability that no more than 2 sixes comes up are as follows :
X < 2 So, the probability that comes up 0 and 1 of six are :
n(S) = 6 x 8 = 48
x=0 n(A) = 40 P = 0.8333
x=1 n(A) = 8 P = 0.1667

Total of the probability is 0.8333 + 0.1667 = 1 (OK)

b. Mean and variance for X

Xx 0 1
P (X x) 0.8333 0.1667
X.P(X x) 0 0.1667
X².P(X x) 0 0.1667
x-µ -0.1667 0.8333
(x - µ)² 0.0278 0.6944
(x - µ)².P(Xx) 0.0231 0.1157

So, The mean for X is as follows :

Ex = µx = ∑ 𝑥. 𝑃(𝑋𝑥)
= 0.1667
So, The variance for X is as follows :
Vx = σx = ∑(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 . 𝑃(𝑋𝑥)
= 0.1389

Problem 3.
A large industrial firm allows a discount on any invoice that is paid within 30 days. Of all
invoices, 10% receive the discount. In a company audit, 12 invoices are sampled at random.
What is probability that fewer than 4 of 12 sampled invoices receive the discount?
Then, what is probability that more than 1 of the 12 sampled invoices received a discount.
Solution.
a. X~Bin(12,0.1)
n = 12 p = 0.1
 The variables X (X<4) are :
X=3
X=2
X=1
X=0
So, the probability from the variables X are as follows :
𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(3) = 0.0852
P(2) = 0.2301
P(1) = 0.3766
P(1) = 0.2824
∑(𝑃(𝑥) ) = 0.9744

b. X~Bin(12,0.1)
n = 12 p = 0.1

The variables X more than 1 (1< X ≤12) are :

𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥

So, the probability from the variables X are as follows :

No X P (x)
1 2 0.230127770466
2 3 0.085232507580
3 4 0.021308126895
4 5 0.003788111448
5 6 0.000491051484
6 7 0.000046766808
7 8 0.000003247695
8 9 0.000000160380
9 10 0.000000005346
10 11 0.000000000108
11 12 0.000000000001

∑(𝑃(𝑥) ) = 0.34099774821