FIRST NEWS October 18, 2019 1 of 6

Stock indexes on Thursday lost steam in the final minutes of trade but PSEi 7,930.55 +15.25 +0.19%
finished near records, booking slight gains as investors drew optimism from
a Brexit draft agreement and upbeat third-quarter results from U.S.
companies such as Netflix and Morgan Stanley. Day Range 7,894.58 - 7,930.55

PSEi 7,930.55 +15.25 +0.19% (Forward P/E 16.5x), NFB 841 Million 52wk Range 6,790.58 - 8,419.59

Market Outlook as of 4 October 2019 Advances - Declines - Unchanged 93 - 79 - 57

Next Supports at 7300 (15.2x, -13% from high) to 6790 (14.1x) present good
opportunities for attractive valuation and technicals Block Sale Value (Php) 283 Million
- Market pierces August 15 low of 7622 (-9.4%). Now at 7545 (-10.4% from 8419
high) Volume (shares) 587 Million
- Next support at May 2019 low of 7482 (15.5x, would be -11% from high)
- Next Supports 7300 (15.2x, -13%), 7170 (14.9x, -15%), Oct 2019 low of 6790
(-19%) Value (Php) 5.70 Billion

Recall November 2018 Report on Major Declines & Rallies (just after the the Foreign Buying (Php) 3.75 Billion
October 2018 bottom); Deepest declines ranged 20% - 25% and 13-18x P/E
- Meanwhile subsequent rallies were 33% - 46% and 16 - 24x P/E. In 2018,
Foreign Selling (Php) 2.67 Billion
catalysts aside from attractive valuation and catalysts through positive sentiment
from rice tarification, foreseen spending in seasonal 4Q and mid-term elections,
etc. Net Foreign B(S) (Php) 1.08 Billion

Strategy

- Good to buy here : Note that Average 5-10YR P/E lows are 13.5 - 14.2x
- Good point to confirm exit strategy: Average 10YR P/E at 16.5x Most Value Most Value Index Change
- What market is hoping for consensus not considering bigger positive catalysts
Active (mn) Active (mn) Advancers
apart from earnings growth : Base Case Targets are 8400 (17.5x) and 8800
(18.3x). (All) (Index) / Decliners

Maintain : Stock Picks SM 1,119 SM 1,119 GLO 1..83%

1. Infrastructure spending (i.e. SMC, MWIDE);
2. Homegrown regional and international expansion (i.e. AC, JFC, ICT);
BPI 454 BPI 454 GLO 1.63%
3. Transforming domestic spaces - Logistics (ALLHC), Renewable Energy
(FGEN, PHEN), 1st and 2nd-class municipalities (DD, WLCON, DNL),
FinTech (GLO), Telco (C, ISM), Tourism (ALI, SMPH, BLOOM), Agriculture AC 346 AC 346 BPI 1.06%
(ANI);
SMPH 251 SMPH 251 SMC 1.02%
Fundamentals
(+) Local Macro Environment turning around as Inflation slows and new norm of
Wider Trade Deficit and Weaker Peso. ALI 197 ALI 197 SMPH 0.78%
(-) Slowing GDP growth; Monetary easing policy to slow
(-) External Risks Remain: US-China Trade Concerns; HK-China Geopolitics SECB 196 SECB 196 LTG -2.70%
Concerns
URC 184 URC 184 RLC -2.35%
As of week-end October 11, 2019, YTD Figures
- PSEi Trailing 16.81x (vs. 16.50x last week); vs. 19.45x (week ending Feb 1)
- PSEi +5.14% (vs. 3.20% last week); vs. +10.77% (week ending July 19) PHEN 183 ICT 179 AC -1.48%
- YTD NFB: P4.13-Billion (vs. 622-Million last week); vs. week ending May 3 is
YTD high of P43.20-Billion ICT 179 MBT 174 RRHI -0.97%
2017 - 2018 Notes
- End-2018, PSEi 7,466.02 (15.5x 2019 P/E), -12.76% y/y; NFS P60.87-billion; HOME 174 GTCAP 130 TEL -0.81%
NFS High P96.37-billion [before the FB P34-billion offer in November]
- End-2017, PSEi 8,558.42 +25.11% y/y; NFB P56.21-billion

WORLD INDICES OCT 17 OCT 18 CHG

Dow Jones 27,001.98 27,025.88 0.09%

S&P 500 2,989.69 2,997.95 0.28%

PSEi 2019F P/E(x) NKY 225 22,472.92 22,451.86 -0.09%

9476 19.7 Ave. 5YR P/E SSE (Shanghai) 2,978.71 2,977.33 -0.05%
9078 18.9 Jan 29, 2018
All-time High CURRENCIES (USD:) OCT 17 OCT 18 CHG
8800 18.3 Base Case +29% from 2018 low
1YR Target PHP 51.58 51.34 -0.47%

8400 17.5 Base Case +23% from 2018 low JPY 108.68 108.54 -0.13%
1YR Target

8419 17.5 2019 High so far +24% from 2018 low EUR 0.90 0.90 0.00%
July 16
CNY 7.10 7.08 -0.28%
7996 16.5 Ave. 10YR P/E

7930 16.5 CURRENT COMMODITIES OCT 17 OCT 18 CHG

7514 15.6 2019 Low so far
WTI Crude (USD/bbl.) 52.82 53.96 2.16%
Note: Tested below
Aug 2019 low 7622
(15.8x) Brent Crude (USD/bbl.) 59.42 59.91 0.82%

7482 15.6 Support -11% from 8419 high Gold (USD/oz.) 1,494.40 1,496.50 0.14%
7466 15.5 End-2018
Copper (USD/lb.) 258.50 259.85 0.52%
7300 15.2 Support -13% from 8419 high

7170 14.9 Support Nickel (USD/lb) 7.6237 7.4836 -1.84%

6830 14.2 Support Laterite Nickel Ni 1.5%, 42.50 42.50 0.00%

Ave. 5YR Low P/E Fe15-25% (USD/wmt) Ave.

6790 14.1 Support -19% from 8419 high

Oct 11, 2018 Year Low Laterite Nickel Ni 1.8%, 78.50 78.50 0.00%
Fe15-20% (USD/wmt) Ave.
6494 13.5 Support
Ave. 10YR Low P/E Coal (USD, MT) 68.67 68.75 0.12%

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FIRST NEWS October 18, 2019
TECHNICALS
RSI 70 OVERBOUGHT - CNPF
RSI 30 OVERSOLD - AXLM EMP HOUSE JAS
52-WEEK HIGH - none
52-WEEK LOW - BEL
IPO : Fruitas Gets Philippine SEC Approval for up to P1.2-
Billion
- Expansion and Debt Payment
- Maximum 533.66-Million primary common shares, over-
allotment of up to 68.34m shares at maximum price of P1.99
- Offer period of Nov 18-22; listing on Nov. 29
- BDO, First Metro issue managers
Share Buy-Back Transactions : MWIDE AGI EMP MAC
VLL 7.70 : Issuance of additional corporate notes in the
amount of Php500,000,000.00 due 2024, at a fixed interest of
7.125% per annum.
ALI 49.20 : Alveo launches P38-Billion commercial project
EEI 10.32 : Confirms it is participating in the bidding process
of package 4 8km worth 32.7B & includes Clark Int. Airport
Station
SMC 167.70 : SMC won’t suspend toll
MER 369.00 :
- MGen propose a 110MW floating solar facility on Laguna
de Bay; awaits go-ahead from the Laguna Lake
Development Authority
- MER group through MGen Renewable Energy Inc.
(MGreen), to invest in 1,000 MW of renewable energy
projects over the next 5-7 years
PHEN 2.81 : AC Energy beefing up capital to support
expansion; SEC also approved on Oct. 11 the change of its
corporate name.
- Its board has approved the increase in its authorized capital
stock to P24.4 billion or almost triple the previous P8.4 billion,
partly to expand its portfolio of assets and projects.
- The the additional capital would be used for investments in
greenfield projects and acquisition of power assets, including
part of AC Energy’s onshore power generation and
development assets.
- Last week, AC Energy Philippines said it intended to avail itself
of loans of up to P15 billion, and that it would invest in
greenfield developments such as a solar farm project in Laguna
and a diesel-fired power project in Rizal.
- The company will assume the right to purchase the 20-percent
interest of Axia Power Holdings Philippines Inc.—a unit of
Marubeni Corp.— in South Luzon Thermal Energy Corp.
(SLTEC), which is a joint venture among AC Energy, Phinma
Energy and Axia Power.
- Francia said the subsidiary was eyeing close to $2 billion or
P100 billion of investments in domestic renewable energy
projects, with a goal of racking up a total of 2,000 megawatts of
capacity within six years.
- Francia said the consolidation of the company’s ownership
would enable SLTEC to withstand market volatility and be
competitive for the long term.
ALI 49.20 : Alveo Land to develop 120-hectare commercial
district in Biñan, Laguna
- ALI has so far sold P2.8 billion of the property in its initial sales
launch last week.
- ALI presented its biggest commercial district project to date,
Broadfield in Laguna, located four kilometers from development
complex Nuvali and 21 kilometers from Alabang.
- The company is targeting to raise P17.7-18 billion from selling
the 36.6-hectare Phase 1 of the project. It will have a total of 87
lots, of which 35 lots have been offered last week for an
average list price of P185 million. Turnover of this segment is
scheduled in 2023.
- Phase 2 of the project, which covers the remaining 43 hectares
of the whole Broadfield land, will be built once the company hits
70-80% of the target P17.7 billion sales from Phase 1. Further
details of this segment haven’t been laid out by the company
yet.
- Mr. Gutierrez said Alveo Land is optimistic about the growth of
the southern district for both residential and commercial use,
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2 of 6
noting residential land prices have more than tripled in the past
12 years and commercial land prices have quadrupled in the
past decade.
- Mr. Gutierrez said the toll road projects under construction,
specifically the Cavite-Laguna Expressway and the proposed
Cavite-Tagaytay-Batangas Expressway, will help improve
connectivity to the commercial district once it opens.
- “Plus the surrounding immediate area  niya, very thriving.  Ang
daming  residential,  ang daming  companies, businesses,
industries (The surrounding area is also thriving, filled with
residential spaces and various companies, businesses and
industries),” Mr. Gutierrez added.
- Once completed, Broadfield will be equal to half the size of
Bonifacio Global City in Taguig (240 hectares). Its main roads
will be designed similarly, with bike lanes, walkways and tree-
lined streets.
- About 80 hectares of the total land area will be allocated to
commercial spaces while 40 hectares will be dedicated to
residential use.
ALI 49.20 : FamilyDOC ready to open biggest clinic, set to
open its 70th and largest clinic along Earnshaw St. in
Sampaloc, Manila
- FamilyDOC was eager to expand into more areas in Metro
Manila in line with its target to have 100 clinics by 2020.
- FamilyDOC offers primary healthcare services, including
consultations, diagnostics tests, and a pharmacy.    
- FamilyDOC general manager Paul Darroca said they were on-
track to reach their goal of 100 clinics by 2020. FamilyDOC has
served more than 450,000 unique patients since it opened in
December 2015. 
BPI 95.00 : 9M Profit +29.5% to P22.03 billion on strong
earnings from its lending, treasury and fee-based
businesses; 3Q Earnings +38.6% to P8.29 billion
- 9M Revenue +24.8% to P71 billion, driven by a 19.8% growth
in net interest income of P48.66 billion.
- 9M Noninterest income +37.5% to P22.34 billion during the
nine-month period, up by 37.5 percent year-on-year, due to
higher securities trading gains and fee-based income.
- Net interest margin widened by 26 basis points on higher asset
yields, which rose by 89 basis points but partially offset by
higher cost of funds.
- Loan book +8.2% to reach P1.37 trillion at end-September,
driven by the consumer (+12.5%) and corporate loan (+7.4%)
segments. Within the consumer segment, credit card loan
+24.6%.
- On the other hand, noninterest income reached P22.34 billion
in the nine-month period, marking a 37.5% increase, driven by
higher securities trading gains and fee-based income.
- The bank’s total securities position stood at P392.99 billion,
+17.3%. Fees, commissions and other income +19.1%,
primarily from higher fee revenues from credit cards,
transaction banking, electronic channels, deposit products and
insurance.
- Total deposits +5% to P1.62 trillion. Of the total, 69.1% were
low-cost deposits.
- For every peso of deposit liabilities generated by the bank for
the period, it converted 84.7 centavos into earning assets by
lending them out.
FIRST NEWS October 18, 2019 3 of 6

SEC clears Fruitas Holdings’ IPO

- Fruitas is planning to offer 533,660,000 primary common
shares with an over-allotment option of up to 68,340,000
outstanding common shares, priced at a maximum of P1.99
apiece. This is equivalent to 28.2% of the company being
opened to public investors.
- The offer period is targeted to start on Nov. 18 until Nov. 22,
with listing at the PSE scheduled on Nov. 29.
- The company aims to generate P1.2 billion in the IPO, which
will fund its expansion plans, acquisitions, introduction of new
concepts and debt repayment.
- Fruitas is tapping BDO Capital & Investment Corp. and First
Metro Investment Corp. as joint issue managers, bookrunners
and lead underwriters for the offering.
- The company said it was able to grow its stores to 949 as of
June from more than 400 in end-2016. Its consolidated
revenues ended at P1.58 billion last year, up 37% from a year
ago on the back of strong sales from its stores.
- Among the brands it owns are Fruitas Fresh From Babot’s
Farm, Buko Loco, Juice Avenue, Buko Ni Fruitas, Johnn Lemon
and Black Pearl. It also operates food parks such as Uno
Cinquenta in Maginhawa and Le Village The Lifestyle Park in
E. Rodriguez, Sr.
- Three companies have so far conducted IPOs this year:
Kepwealth Property Phils, Inc. which raised P385 million,
Axelum Resources Corp. which raised P4 billion and AllHome
Corp. which raised P14.9 billion.

GAMING
- BIR shuts another Online Gaming Operator

ADB unveils $9.1-billion loan program for PHL over the next
three years as the government seeks to invest in major
infrastructure and pro-poor projects
- Philippines Country Operations Business Plan 2020–2022, it
would invest 59.5% of the three-year sovereign lending
program in transportation projects such as railways, bridges,
road networks, and elevated pedestrian walkways. 
- The rest of the financial support will be devoted to the social
sector, agriculture, public sector management and sustainable
water and urban development.
- ADB plans to finance projects and programs worth at least $2.5
billion annually in 2020 and 2021, matching the record high of
$2.5 billion in sovereign lending to the Philippines expected by
the end of the year. In comparison, ADB’s annual lending from
2008 to 2018 averaged only $800 million.
- Half of ADB’s 2019 assistance program will fund the first
tranche of the Malolos–Clark Railway Project, one of the
government’s big-ticket infrastructure projects under the “Build,
Build, Build” program. 
- It is also the largest ADB project financing to date, worth $2.75
billion in total. Contracts for civil works for the project are
expected to be awarded before the end of the year and
construction works may begin in the second quarter of 2020.
- ADB is preparing additional financing this year for the
Infrastructure Preparation and Innovation Facility to support
detailed engineering designs and feasibility studies for the
government’s priority projects under the BBB program.

BSP : Foreign fund managers pulled out $231 million in

September
- Including the first week of October, hot money resulted to a net
outflow of $1.3 billion since the start of the year, a turnaround
from the $75-million net inflow a year ago.
- About 80.2% of investments in September were in securities
listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange pertaining to property
companies, holding firms, banks, food and beverages, and
tobacco firms and transportation companies. The balance of
19.8% went into peso government securities.
- The United Kingdom, the US, Singapore, Malaysia, and
Luxembourg were the top five investor countries last month,
with a combined share of 72.3%.
- Foreign portfolio investments are called hot money because of
the ease they are invested in and taken out of the financial
markets.
- Registration of inward foreign investments with the Bangko
Sentral ng Pilipinas is optional under the liberalized rules on
foreign exchange transactions. 
- Hot money posted a net inflow of $1.2 billion in 2018, a
turnaround from the $195-million net outflow in 2017, buoyed
partly by the passage into law of the Tax Reform for
Acceleration and Inclusion law. 

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FIRST NEWS October 18, 2019 4 of 6

ALERT : Updated Market Outlook as of 4 October 2019

Next Supports at 7300 (15.2x, -13% from high) to 6790 (14.1x) present good opportunities for attractive valuation and technicals
- Market pierces August 15 low of 7622 (-9.4%). Now at 7545 (-10.4% from 8419 high)
- Next support at May 2019 low of 7482 (15.5x, would be -11% from high)
- Next Supports 7300 (15.2x, -13%), 7170 (14.9x, -15%), Oct 2019 low of 6790 (-19%)
Recall November 2018 Report on Major Declines & Rallies (just after the the October 2018 bottom); Deepest declines ranged 20% - 25% and 13-18x P/E
- Meanwhile subsequent rallies were 33% - 46% and 16 - 24x P/E. In 2018, catalysts aside from attractive valuation and catalysts through positive sentiment from rice tarification,
foreseen spending in seasonal 4Q and mid-term elections, etc.

Strategy
- Good to buy here : Note that Average 5-10YR P/E lows are 13.5 - 14.2x
- Good point to confirm exit strategy: Average 10YR P/E at 16.5x
- What market is hoping for consensus not considering bigger positive catalysts apart from earnings growth : Base Case Targets are 8400 (17.5x) and 8800 (18.3x).
Stock Picks
1. Infrastructure spending (i.e. SMC, MWIDE);
2. Homegrown regional and international expansion (i.e. AC, JFC, ICT);
3. Transforming domestic spaces - Logistics (ALLHC), Renewable Energy (FGEN, PHEN), 1st and 2nd-class municipalities (DD, WLCON, DNL), FinTech (GLO), Telco (C, ISM),
Tourism (ALI, SMPH, BLOOM), Agriculture (ANI)

Reference : Nov 18 Report on Major Declines & Rallies

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FIRST NEWS October 18, 2019 5 of 6

Stock Price 52- % 52WK % 2018F 2019F TP Upsi 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Buy
10-1 week from High from P/E P/E or de EPS EPS / EPS / EPS / EPS / Belo
7 Low 52WK 52WK PBV / BV BV BV BV BV w
Low High

1 AC 369.00 838.00 -127% 1007.00 -63% 7 6 1101 198% 39.30 46.00 51.00 59.40 71.30 917.50

FLC 10-18 17.05% 10.87% 16.47% 20.03%

2 ALI 49.20 38.00 23% 53.85 -9% 25 21 50.50 3% 1.43 1.71 1.98 2.30 2.67 42.08

FLC 10-18 19.58% 15.79% 16.16% 16.09%

3 AP 39.40 31.20 21% 39.50 -0% 12 11 42.60 8% 2.72 2.77 3.21 3.68 4.13 35.50

FLC 1.84% 15.88% 14.64% 12.23%

02-14-19

4 BDO 149.50 106.60 29% 154.00 -3% 2.04 1.86 141.00 -6% 59.50 68.80 73.20 80.40 88.40 117.50

15.63% 6.40% 9.84% 9.95%

5 BLOOM 10.62 7.30 31% 13.14 -19% 15 15 14.00 32% 0.21 0.55 0.70 0.71 0.90 11.67

FLC 11-18 161.90% 27.27% 1.43% 26.76%

6 BPI 95.00 77.25 19% 95.70 -1% 1.72 1.59 110.00 16% 40.80 44.60 55.30 59.70 65.10 91.67

9.31% 23.99% 7.96% 9.05%

7 CEB 97.00 58.00 40% 98.90 -2% 14.92 8.22 101 16.10 13.10 6.50 11.80 15.40 84.17

-18.63% -50.38% 81.54% 30.51%

8 CNPF 15.18 12.90 15% 16.54 -8% 21 18 17.20 13% 0.58 0.75 0.72 0.83 0.95 1.00

FLC 10-18 29.31% -4.00% 15.28% 14.46%

9 DD 20.30 17.14 27.30

FLC
01-18-19

10 DNL 8.50 8.75 -3% 12.00 -29% 18 17 11.90 40% 0.37 0.41 0.46 0.51 0.59 9.92

FLC 10-18 10.81% 12.20% 10.87% 15.69%

11 EAGLE 15.16 13.98 8% 16.70 -9% 16 12 18 19% 0.85 0.92 1.23 15.00

FLC 10-18 8.24% 33.70%

12 GTCAP 862.00 611.57 29% 1,047.22 -18% 11 10 1083 26% 81.10 70.30 75.00 85.90 90.20 902.50

FLC 10-18 -13.32% 6.69% 14.53% 5.01%

13 ICT 122.00 87.30 28% 148.90 -18% 28 17 109 -11% 3.52 3.68 4.32 5.40 7.02 90.83

FLC 11-18 4.55% 17.39% 25.00% 30.00%

14 JFC 235.00 217.20 8% 328.40 -28% 33 29 320.00 5.61 6.48 7.15 8.10 9.44

15.51% 10.34% 13.29% 16.54%

15 MAC 18.80 11.80 37% 23.00 -18% 28 24 23.60 0.68 0.79 0.97 19.67

FLC 16.18% 22.78%

03-21-19

16 MBT 68.80 64.00 7% 84.80 -19% 0.97 0.89 96.70 41% 58.90 61.20 71.00 77.10 84.50 80.58

3.90% 16.01% 8.59% 9.60%

17 MPI 4.91 4.11 16% 5.56 -12% 10 10 7.50 53% 0.38 0.42 0.47 0.49 0.53 6.25

10.53% 11.90% 4.26% 8.16%

18 MWIDE 17.96 14.02 22% 23.00 -22% 28 20 24.70 38% 0.57 0.70 0.65 0.88 1.19 20.58

FLC 10-18 22.81% -7.14% 35.38% 35.23%

19 PGOLD 40.00 39.60 1% 50.30 -20% 17 16 53.00 2.00 2.10 2.36 2.54 2.89

FLC 5.00% 12.38% 7.63% 13.78%

03-12-19

20 SCC 22.95 19.80 14% 31.00 -26% 6 6 41.10 79% 2.82 3.33 3.81 3.77 4.17 34.25

18.09% 14.41% -1.05% 10.61%

21 SECB 200.00 132.10 34% 204.00 -2% 1.35 1.26 208.00 4% 136.00 139.00 148.00 159.00 173.00 173.33

FLC 2.21% 6.47% 7.43% 8.81%

01-22-19

22 SM 1006.00 831.00 1037.00 -3% 32 28 960.00 25.90 27.33 31.07 35.54 39.87 800.00

FLC 5.52% 13.68% 14.39% 12.18%

01-30-19

23 SMPH 38.95 31.45 19% 42.50 -8% 35 32 42 8% 0.83 0.96 1.11 1.23 1.35 35.00

FLC 15.66% 15.63% 10.81% 9.76%

01-30-19

24 UBP 59.00 57.00 3% 78.95 -25% 0.78 0.75 75 61.80 67.60 75.50 78.60 84.40 62.50

FLC 9.39% 11.69% 4.11% 7.38%

02-14-19

Youtube
25 How iTRADE
WLCON 16.36Twitter
9.94 @itradeph
39% Web www.itrade.ph
9.00 82% 43 E-mail
37 research@itrade.ph
14.5 -11% Bloomberg
0.37 DMMA
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0.44 0.51 <GO>12.08

15.79% 15.91%

Ave 16.75% 15.21%

FIRST NEWS October 18, 2019 6 of 6

OCT 2019 (Div indicates Ex-Dates)

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

DIV - ACPB2 6.96875

7 8 9 10 11

DIV - PRF2A 15.75, DIV - LBC 0.25, MWC DIV - STR 0.0571 DIV - VLL 0.2646
PRF2B 17.14575, 0.4551
SMC 0.35

14 15 16 17 18

DIV - ACPB1 6.5625 DIV - FJP 0.10

21 22 23 24 25

DIV - PRC 0.05

28 29 30 31

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