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Canaccord Genuity
Canaccord Genuity
6 August 2010
COMPANY STATISTICS:
52-week Range: C$13.74 - 25.25
Financials -- Insurance
Current Dividend:
Current Dividend Yield %:
C$0.52
3.7
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE COULD
Forecast Return %:
Shares Out (M):
23.4
1,766
SINK BELOW $13.00
Market Cap (M): C$25,077 MFC reported a loss per share of $1.36 versus our estimate of a loss of
Bk Value /shr: C$14.89 $0.27 and consensus of a loss of $0.60. Relative to our estimate, the
P/Bk Value (x): 0.95 equity market charge and interest rate charge were far greater than
EARNINGS SUMMARY: expected. MFC’s earnings sensitivity appears to be greater than we
FYE Dec 2009A 2010E 2011E originally understood it to be. The company raised guidance as to the
EPS: C$0.81 C$(2.09) C$1.68 sensitivity of earnings and capital to the macro factors. Interest rate
P/E (x): 17.5 -6.8 8.5
sensitivity increased significantly.
Relative to The Group %: nm -54 91
ROE %: 4.9 -14.8 12.6 While we fully expected MFC to conduct an assumption review in Q3/10
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE: and take material charges associated with morbidity and even the URR,
based on management’s comments, we suspect that the charge could be
$1.7 billion. Combined with a goodwill charge of approximately $2.0
billion and the strength of the C$, we could see MFC’s book value per
share sink below $13.00 per share by the end of 2010.
With the S&P 500 up 9% since the end of last quarter, in theory, MFC’s
MCCSR could be as high as 230% (a 10% increase in equity markets
increases the MCCSR by 8 points). However, as discussed above, charges
associated with the URR, morbidity and other factors could push the
MCCSR still lower. A decline in equity markets from current levels of
10%-20%, combined with the charges discussed above, could take the
COMPANY SUMMARY:
Manulife Financial is a leading Canadian-based financial MCCSR to 200% or less. We would not rule out another capital raise.
services group operating in 22 countries and territories
worldwide. Funds under management by Manulife Our estimates suggest MFC can generate an ROE of 12.0-12.5% in 2011.
Financial and its subsidiaries were Cdn$454 billion We believe an ROE at this level warrants a P/B of 1.3x. Applying a P/B
(US$428 billion) as at June 30, 2010.
target multiple of 1.3x to MFC’s book value per share 12-month forward
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted. of $13.26 generates a target price of C$17.00 (down from C$18.00) and
implies a total return of 20%. While a 20% return is attractive, our HOLD
rating continues to reflect the company’s extreme earnings volatility,
regulatory risk (potential OSFI changes), lack of momentum in P&D and
the potential for another capital raise
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Financial Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : AIM)
The recommendations and opinions expressed
expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal,
independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important
information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit Canaccord Genuity’s Online Disclosure
Database.
Daily Letter | 2
6 August 2010
Weighted average shares outstanding (f.d.) 1,616 1,615 1,673 1,763 1,762 1,766
EPS (f.d.) 1.09 (0.12) 0.51 0.64 (1.36) (0.27)
EPS (f.d.) adjusted for items of note 0.44 0.43 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.36
YoY growth
Expected Profit 8% 6% 4% (9%) (8%) (6%)
Earnings on surplus (108%) 41% (115%) (203%) (390%) (829%)
EPS adjusted for items of note (34%) (40%) (30%) (21%) (22%) (17%)
Average AUM 3% 9% 11% 9% 9% 8%
Premiums and deposits (excluding Corporate segment) 2% (2%) (12%) (10%) (10%) (7%)
Expected profit & earnings on surplus to Income before taxes 50% (140%) 85% 71% (26%) (173%)
• The equity market charge of $1.7 billion was materially higher than our estimate of
$1.0 billion and reflected greater equity market sensitivity than the company’s
guidance suggested. With equity markets down a blended 10% in the quarter, we
expected the company to take a $1.0 billion charge. Management indicated that hedge
ineffectiveness resulted in a further $300 million charge and that the decline in the
TOPIX is actually more relevant to blended market performance than the S&P/TSX.
The TOPIX was down 14% in the quarter.
• The sharp decline in interest rates reduced earnings by $1.5 billion versus our
estimate of $300 million. We anticipated a much smaller effect primarily because we
expected the increase in credit spreads to offset much of the impact of lower interest
rates. Management indicated that this did not benefit earnings this quarter because
the company applies a more conservative view of credit spreads when they are beyond
long-term averages, and because the company uses an “expected investable” universe
of bonds rather than observable rates. The difference from our estimate further calls
into question the market’s capacity to forecast MFC’s earnings in any given quarter.
• Earnings benefited from favourable fixed income investing activities ($116 million)
versus our estimate of $200 million and $188 million last quarter.
Excluding the items discussed above, we put the core number at $0.34, slightly below our
estimate of $0.36. Our outlook on the core number of $0.34 is different from what
management characterizes as adjusted ($0.36) for the following reasons:
• MFC uses a $1.16 C$/US$ exchange rate for the purposes of calculating the
adjusted number. This added $48 million ($0.02-$0.03 per share) to MFC’s
adjusted EPS.
• MFC adjusts for higher than expected morbidity and lapse experience in long-term
care. We do not treat policyholder experience as unusual. This added $11 million
(>$0.01 per share) to MFC’s adjusted EPS.
On an adjusted basis, the modest $0.02 difference from our estimate ($0.34 versus $0.36)
primarily relates to slightly weaker asset growth, weaker expected profit margins and
lower earnings on surplus. Weaker earnings on surplus related to the absence of AFS
securities gains. Management guided to higher AFS securities gains in the second half of
2010. Management will stop providing adjusted earnings guidance at the end of 2010.
• Revising 2011E EPS down; reducing book value per share estimate significantly
• Regulatory and accounting risk remains high for MFC and the insurers
Revising 2011E EPS down; reducing book value per share estimate significantly
Reflecting lower normalized earnings (primarily lower earnings on surplus) and all of the
Q3/10 assumption review charges discussed below as well as a goodwill charge of $2.0
billion in Q4/10, we are revising our 2010E EPS to a loss per share of $2.09 (from EPS of
$1.14). We reduced our 2011E EPS to $1.68 from $1.80 reflecting the strength in the
Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar, weak P&D growth and lower expected profit
(mostly associated with the cost of hedging the VA business).
The decline in our expected profit forecast in part reflects management’s comments
regarding the costs of hedging and our expectation that MFC will continue to hedge more
inforce VA business. Management has not hedged additional VA inforce business since
Q1/10. We estimate the cost of taking the hedging to 70% (from 51% currently) to be an
additional $50 million after tax annually.
Below we layout the anticipated effect of the assumption review and goodwill charge on
book value per share. By the end of the year, we could see book value decline to below
$13.00 per share. Looking out 12 months (Q2/11) we estimate book value to be
approximately $13.26.
Our estimates suggest MFC can generate an ROE of 12.0-12.5% in 2011. We believe an
ROE at this level warrants a P/B of 1.3x (we use 1.3x for SLF consistent with the
company’s expected ROE). Applying a P/B target multiple of 1.3x to MFC’s book value per
share 12-month forward of $13.26 generates a target price of $17.00 (down from $18.00)
and implies a total return of 20%.
While a 20% return is attractive, our HOLD rating continues to reflect the company’s
extreme earnings volatility, regulatory risk (potential OSFI changes), lack of momentum in
P&D and the potential for another capital raise (discussed below). We favour SLF over MFC
on valuation, lower tail risk and better business momentum.
Management also suggested that because of the interest rate charges, there is a large
deferred tax asset in the U.S. that may not be entirely recoverable if losses continue to
mount. We are not building in a valuation charge on the deferred tax asset at this time.
The deferred tax asset is $700 million.
Management suggested that they may lower the ultimate reinvestment rate assumption
(URR). The company’s sensitivity is such that a decline in the URR results in a charge of
$1.9 billion. We would not be surprised if MFC lowers the URR by 10-20 bps or $300
million.
Daily Letter | 5
6 August 2010
Finally, management stated that higher volatility, could impact segregated fund reserves.
At Q2/10 management indicated that a 100 bps change in equity volatility assumption for
stochastic segregated fund modeling would reduce earnings by $300 million. We build in a
charge of $400 million.
While we have not incorporated charges for changes in expected returns for public equities
($1.0 billion charge for 100 bps reduction) and non fixed income assets including
commercial real estate, timber and agricultural real estate, oil gas and private equities
($2.8 billion charge for 100 bps reduction), given the volatility in asset returns, it is
plausible that management feels the need to adjust these non-fixed income asset return
expectations as well.
While management did not lay out a goodwill charge in the manner SLF did, the CFO did
suggest that the charge could be as high as $2.0 billion. With $7.2 billion in goodwill, most
of which relates to the U.S., a goodwill charge of $2.0 billion is entirely plausible. Unlike
SLF that indicated the charge would be to opening retained earnings on January 1, 2011,
MFC suggested the charge could go through earnings in the second half of 2010. We built
in a $2.0 billion charge into Q4/10 reported earnings.
Applying these charges, the appreciation in the C$ since Q2/10, normalized earnings and
expected dividends, we can see book value per share declining to $12.50-$13.00 by Q4/10
or January 1, 2011 (the implementation of IFRS Phase I) and an MCCSR of 200%-210%. In
more normal circumstances, an MCCSR of 210% is entirely acceptable, however, given
market volatility and MFC’s outsized sensitivity to the macro factors, an equity offering is
entirely plausible.
Although management stated that there are several other contingencies the company
would turn to before raising capital (hybrids, preferred shares, reinsurance) we believe
that the only thing that would satisfy rating agencies is if MFC raised common equity.
Standard & Poor’s downgraded MFC’s operating subsidiaries and Moody’s placed MFC’s
most important operating subsidiaries on review for possible downgrade.
annuities was $11.4 billion (up from $8.1 billion last quarter) reflecting the decline in
equity markets. In the quarter the company did not hedge any of the variable annuity
exposure.
The company guided to hedging at least 70% of the book by the end of 2012, but reiterated
the view that it is only appropriate to hedge when the guarantees are at or out of the
money. Importantly however, management indicated that even at the 70% hedged level,
earnings sensitivity would still be only 15% lower than it is currently – implying a $1.1
billion. This comment solidifies are view that only materially higher equity markets
(beyond 1300 on the S&P 500) would the company’s sensitivity to equity markets decline
materially.
We estimate that an additional 20% of hedging would likely cost another $50 million
annually. This is in addition to the $120 million after tax annually from hedging the $22
billion since Q2/09.
1.0 Q1/10
0.8
0.6
-
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
S&P 500
With markets up significantly this quarter, we could see MFC take an $800 million gain on
equity markets in Q3/10 if markets hold on to gains. We continue to believe that this level
of market sensitivity hurts MFC’s valuation.
interest rate guarantees that are included in much of the company’s U.S. individual life
insurance business.
While this does speak to significant earnings volatility, we are inclined to believe that a 100
bps change (in a quarter) in interest rates is not highly probable. Management’s intention
is to try to hedge interest rate risk, but like the equity market guarantees, hedging of the
interest rate guarantees is only likely to play-out once rates increase, leaving the company
exposed to significant swings in earnings.
Looking out to Q3/10, interest rates are mixed and have changed only modestly.
1.0
0.5
(0.5)
(1.5)
Q4/07
Q1/08
Q2/08
Q3/08
Q4/08
Q1/09
Q2/09
Q3/09
Q4/09
Q1/10
Q2/10
5-Aug
Given the complexity of this issue and the company-specific internal methodologies
involved in calculating interest rate risk reserves, we do not expect to accurately forecast
interest rate charges and therefore earnings in quarters when interest rates are volatile.
We believe this will also constrain valuation.
With the S&P 500 up 9% since the end of last quarter, in theory, MFC’s MCCSR could be as
high as 230% (a 10% increase in equity markets increases the MCCSR by 8 points).
However, as discussed above, charges associated with the URR, morbidity and other
factors could push the MCCSR still lower. A decline in equity markets from current levels of
Daily Letter | 8
6 August 2010
10%-20%, combined with the charges discussed above, could take the MCCSR to 200% or
less. We would not rule out another capital raise.
Regulatory and accounting risk remains high for MFC and the insurers
While the company’s MCCSR appears strong today, we continue to view MFC as having
greater regulatory risk than its insurance and banking peers. Specifically, while SLF and
GWO have contingent capital at the holding companies, MFC has down-streamed all of the
capital to MLI. Accordingly, any new punitive holding company requirements could impact
MFC.
Importantly, however, as the new capital standards for segregated funds will only apply to
new business, one important overhang has been lifted. At this juncture it is unclear just
how punitive the new rules will be, but we can say is that MFC’s and SLF’s sales of new
variable annuities in the U.S. could suffer if the regulators impose capital standards that
are significantly more onerous than those faced by the U.S. insurers.
While we do not believe that the higher standards will cause the insurers to raise capital at
the holding company, we believe the potential for changes will keep the insurers on the
sidelines as it relates to dividend increases and buy backs, perhaps for longer than
Canada’s banks.
Additionally, we do not expect any of the insurers to make large acquisitions until it is
perfectly clear how the U.S. subsidiaries will be treated under Canada’s MCCSR guidelines.
We remain concerned that IFRS could result in significant earnings volatility for MFC (less
so for the other insurers) if in fact the link between investments and the reserves they
support is broken under IFRS. See our Financial’s Weekly report released on Monday for a
detailed discussion of the possible implications of IFRS.
Note (excludes):
Corporate - Institutional advisory accounts 2,193 847 1,060 847
Total P&D including Corporate (C$ millions) 19,842 17,802 16,931 (15%) (5%) 17,233
Lower than expected P&D relates almost entirely to Canadian and Japanese segregated
fund sales. U.S. mutual funds, where flows improved to $2.4 billion, were up 57% over
last year and almost $500 million higher than our estimate.
The weakness in the MFC P&D story remains U.S. VA sales where sales declined 57% YoY.
While we do not expect VA sales to recover, as Q3/09 was the first very weak quarter of
U.S. VA sales, we expect P&D growth to improve slightly next quarter. Importantly,
however, with the company deemphasizing products with market guarantee risk and
interest rate risk, we do not see MFC delivering anything more than low single digit P&D
growth for the next 12-18 months.
Daily Letter | 10
6 August 2010
Weighted average shares outstanding (f.d.) 1,536.4 1,466.5 1,656.9 1,775.4 1,766.0
EPS (f.d.) 2.83 0.33 0.81 (2.09) 1.68
EPS (f.d.) adjusted for items of note 2.10 2.68 1.73 1.46 1.68
YoY growth
Expected Profit 6% (1%) 8% (7%) 9%
Earnings on surplus 23% (55%) (99%) nm (0%)
EPS 14% (88%) 143% (359%) (180%)
EPS adjusted for items of note (15%) 28% (36%) (15%) 15%
Average AUM 3% (1%) 5% 7% 7%
Premiums & deposits (excluding Corporate segment) 8% (9%) (2%) (4%) 5%
Expected profit & earnings on surplus to income before taxes 78% 634% nm -72% 99%
Investment risks
Investment risks associated with financial services and insurance companies include but
are not limited to: credit, market, liquidity, interest rate, operational, reputational,
insurance, strategic, foreign exchange, regulatory, legal risks; general business and
economic conditions in the countries which the companies operate, as well as the effect of
changes in monetary and economic policies, changes in supervisory expectations or
requirements of those jurisdictions.
Daily Letter | 12
6 August 2010
Site Visit: An analyst has not visited Manulife Financial Corp.'s material operations.
Price Chart:*
Canaccord Ratings BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
System: HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the
designated investment or the relevant issuer.
Risk Qualifier: SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental
criteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss.
1 The relevant issuer currently is, or in the past 12 months was, a client of Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated
companies. During this period, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated companies provided the following services
to the relevant issuer:
A. investment banking services.
B. non-investment banking securities-related services.
C. non-securities related services.
2 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated companies have received compensation for
Corporate Finance/Investment Banking services from the relevant issuer.
3 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity or any of its affiliated companies have been lead manager, co-lead
manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities of the relevant issuer or any publicly disclosed offer
of securities of the relevant issuer or in any related derivatives.
4 Canaccord Genuity acts as corporate broker for the relevant issuer and/or Canaccord Genuity or any of its
affiliated companies may have an agreement with the relevant issuer relating to the provision of Corporate
Finance/Investment Banking services.
5 Canaccord Genuity or any of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities
of the relevant issuer or in any related derivatives.
6 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity, its partners, affiliated companies, officers or directors, or any
authoring analyst involved in the preparation of this investment research has provided services to the
relevant issuer for remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.
7 Canaccord Genuity intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for Corporate Finance/Investment
Banking services from the relevant issuer in the next six months.
8 The authoring analyst, a member of the authoring analyst’s household, or any individual directly involved in
the preparation of this investment research, has a long position in the shares or derivatives, or has any other
financial interest in the relevant issuer, the value of which increases as the value of the underlying equity
increases.
9 The authoring analyst, a member of the authoring analyst’s household, or any individual directly involved in
the preparation of this investment research, has a short position in the shares or derivatives, or has any
other financial interest in the relevant issuer, the value of which increases as the value of the underlying
equity decreases.
10 Those persons identified as the author(s) of this investment research, or any individual involved in the
preparation of this investment research, have purchased/received shares in the relevant issuer prior to a
public offering of those shares, and such person’s name and details are disclosed above.
11 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies, or a
member of his/her household, is an officer, or director, or serves as an advisor or board member of the
relevant issuer and/or one of its subsidiaries, and such person’s name is disclosed above.
12 As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this investment research, or the prior
month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliate
companies, in the aggregate, beneficially owned 1% or more of any class of the total issued share capital or
other common equity securities of the relevant issuer or held any other financial interests in the relevant
issuer which are significant in relation to the investment research (as disclosed above).
13 As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this investment research, or the prior
month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, the relevant issuer owned 1% or more of
any class of the total issued share capital in Canaccord Genuity or any of its affiliated companies.
14 Other specific disclosures as described above.
Canaccord Genuity is the business name used by certain subsidiaries of Canaccord Financial Inc., including
Canaccord Genuity Inc., Canaccord Genuity Limited, and Canaccord Genuity Corp.
The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this investment research are employed by
Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadian broker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary,
Toronto, Montreal, or Canaccord Genuity Inc., a US broker-dealer with principal offices located in Boston,
New York, San Francisco and Houston or Canaccord Genuity Limited., a UK broker-dealer with principal
offices located in London and Edinburgh (UK).
In the event that this is compendium investment research (covering six or more relevant issuers), Canaccord
Genuity and its affiliated companies may choose to provide specific disclosures of the subject companies by
reference, as well as its policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of investment research. To
access this material or for more information, please send a request to Canaccord Genuity Research, Attn:
Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2 or
disclosures@canaccordgenuity.com.
Daily Letter | 14
6 August 2010
The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this investment research have received (or
will receive) compensation based upon (among other factors) the Corporate Finance/Investment Banking
revenues and general profits of Canaccord Genuity. However, such authoring analysts have not received, and
will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific Corporate
Finance/Investment Banking activities, or to recommendations contained in the investment research.
Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies may have a Corporate Finance/Investment Banking or other
relationship with the company that is the subject of this investment research and may trade in any of the
designated investments mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers, in
good faith or in the normal course of market making. Accordingly, Canaccord Genuity or their affiliated
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The information contained in this investment research has been compiled by Canaccord Genuity from sources
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Daily Letter | 15
6 August 2010
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