ESTIMATION THE PROBABILITY OF AN ANNUAL MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE SEISMIC DATA

(SIBERUT ISLAND, 2009-2018)

Irfan Ibrahim
Geodesy and Geomatic Engineering, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Institute of Technology, Bandung,
Indonesia
irfan.ibrahim97@yahoo.com

Siberut Island, located at the offshore of West Sumatera, is the largest island in the Mentawai Archipelago. It is located close
to subduction zone of Indo-Australia oceanic plate beneath the Southeast Asian plate. So, this situation makes the high
probability of earthquake that occur in the Siberut Island. From BMKG (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika)
seismic data, 208 times earthquake occur in this area from 2009-2018 with the magnitude range 4.5 SR – 9.5 SR.

In this project, we can sort the annual maximum data in the beginning. With using the Gumbel Procedure for Extreme Value
Analysise we can calculate some parameter. In the beginning we can sort the data from smallest to largest and give the index
i that mean the rank of the data. Some Gumber parameters we can calculate with this formula:
Probability Paper (Pr) = i/(n+1) (1)
Reduced Variate (RV) = –ln(–ln(Pr)) (2)

Furthermore, using the value of RV and X, it can relate by regression line X = aRV + b. From the Probability Paper (Pr) and
Reduced Variate (RV) data, the value of regression variable is a = 0.8055 and b = 5.252, that can show with the diagram
below:

Figure 1. Extreme Value Analysis Diagram

We can predict the value of Magnitude (X), but first we should know the value of RV that relating with the Return Period
(T). Return Period that means the next time we want to predic the magnitude for that time. This step can use this formula:
RV = –ln(–ln(1–(T –1)) (3)
In this case, for city planning with purpose to hazard mitigation, this project wants to know the return period for 50 years
(according to the average long of human live) and its multiples 100 and 150 years. The result for this project can show like
table and picture below:
Table 1 Magnitude for Return Period
Return Period Magnitude
RV
(T) - Year (X)
50 – 2068 3.901939 8.3951116 SR
100 – 2118 4.600149 8.9575202 SR
150 – 2168 5.007293 9.2854742 SR

From the result, we can see for the return period 50, 100, and 150 years, earthquake magnitude is increasing for each return
period with the value is bigger than 8.00 SR. So, to the purpose of hazard mitigation, from the magnitude prediction we can
use to prepare the building that resistance with the earthquake vibration. From the financial side, we should analyse the
building in mentawai area tha not resistance with the earthquake vibration and doing the renovation for that building. So, total
cost that should be provide by government is equal to the total of not resistance building times renovation cost for each
building.

References:
McCaffrey, Robert. (2009). The Tectonic Framework of the Sumatran Subduction Zone Annual Reviews Further Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.

Disclaimer: This research assume that seismic magnitude is the function of time.