The document provides an overview of business decision making. It discusses key concepts such as the types of decisions managers make, the decision-making process, models of decision making, and tools that can be used. Some of the main points covered include:
- Managers are responsible for making independent decisions to efficiently execute organizational functions.
- Decision-making involves selecting the best alternative from multiple options to solve problems like crises, opportunities, or routine issues.
- Models of rational decision making assume managers logically choose alternatives to maximize goals, though bounded rationality recognizes limits to rationality.
- Quantitative and qualitative tools can help structure decision making, including techniques like marginal analysis, decision trees, and brainstorming
The document provides an overview of business decision making. It discusses key concepts such as the types of decisions managers make, the decision-making process, models of decision making, and tools that can be used. Some of the main points covered include:
- Managers are responsible for making independent decisions to efficiently execute organizational functions.
- Decision-making involves selecting the best alternative from multiple options to solve problems like crises, opportunities, or routine issues.
- Models of rational decision making assume managers logically choose alternatives to maximize goals, though bounded rationality recognizes limits to rationality.
- Quantitative and qualitative tools can help structure decision making, including techniques like marginal analysis, decision trees, and brainstorming
The document provides an overview of business decision making. It discusses key concepts such as the types of decisions managers make, the decision-making process, models of decision making, and tools that can be used. Some of the main points covered include:
- Managers are responsible for making independent decisions to efficiently execute organizational functions.
- Decision-making involves selecting the best alternative from multiple options to solve problems like crises, opportunities, or routine issues.
- Models of rational decision making assume managers logically choose alternatives to maximize goals, though bounded rationality recognizes limits to rationality.
- Quantitative and qualitative tools can help structure decision making, including techniques like marginal analysis, decision trees, and brainstorming
Page 1 A Core Function Managers are responsible for effective and efficient execution of these organizational functions.
A typical manager performs a number of functions
that are categorized as: Interpersonal Informational Decisional One of the key traits that distinguish managers from operatives is the ability to make Independent Decisions.
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Page 2 What is Decision-Making?
The word decision is defined as:
“A choice between two or more alternatives”. Thus decision-making can be defined as: “the selection of a course of action from among alternatives ”.
The process of choosing the most appropriate
alternative from a given set of alternatives.
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Page 3 Types of problems decision makers face
Managerial decision making typically centers on three
types of problems: Crisis A crisis problem is a serious difficulty requiring immediate action. Non-Crisis A non-crisis problem is an issue that requires resolution but does not simultaneously have the importance and immediacy characteristics of a crisis. Opportunity Problems An opportunity problem is a situation that offers strong potential for significant organizational gain if appropriate actions are taken.
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Page 4 Differences in decision making situations
• There are two situation
Programmed Decision Making Programmed Decisions are those made in routine, repetitive, well- structured situations through the use of predetermined decision rules.
Non-Programmed Decision Making
Non-programmed Decisions are those for which predetermined decision rules are impractical because the situations are novel and/or relatively ill structured.
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Page 5 Strategic Decisions
• Administrative decisions • Routine or Operating decisions
Individual and Group decisions
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Page 6 Decision-Making Process 1) Identifying a problem 2) Identifying decision criteria 3) Allocating weights to criteria 4) Developing alternatives 5) Analyzing alternatives 6) Selecting an alternative 7) Implementing the alternative 8) Evaluation (of decision effectiveness)
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Page 7 Herbert Simon Model
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Page 8 Making Rational Decisions A series of steps that decision makers should consider if their goal is to maximize the quality of their outcomes.
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Page 9 Rational Economic Man Model • By Adam Smith, it states that managers are always rational and choose the alternative which provides maximum gain. • A rational decision maker has a clear idea of the problem to be solved and he is fully objective and logical in approach. Assumptions 1. Decision maker has a clear and well defined goal 2. Is rational and uninfluenced by emotions 3. Can identify the problem clearly and precisely 4. He knows all the alternatives available, with consequences 5. Can rank all consequences according to preferences 6. Has full freedom to choose the best alternative.
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Page 10 Bounded Rationality A critique of the rational man model. Administrative man he says is the way decisions are actually made.
He says there are limits on decision making:
1. Bounded rationality: imperfect information about goals and courses of action and relation of means to ends. Only perceive a few of the possible decisions, courses of action, dimly perceive means end relation. 2. Bounded discretion: constraints on optimizing, prior commitments, moral and ethical standards, laws, and social standards. Forced to make decisions that are just good enough. Called Satisficing. Search for a needle in the haystack. Optimize is to look for the sharpest. Satisfied is to search until you find the needle that is just sharp enough to do the job. Free Powerpoint Templates Page 11 Bounded Rational: Causes
1. Inadequate goal formulation
2. Vaguely defined problems 3. Imperfect knowledge 4. Limited time and resources 5. Human Limitations 6. Power Politics 7. Environmental Dynamics
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Page 12 Group Decision-making
The group members interact with each other, discuss
the problem and make a collective decision. The factors requiring group decisions include: 1. Involving sensitive issues 2. High cost alternatives 3. Involving very high risk factor 4. Strategic impact
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Page 13 Group Decisions: Advantages
1. Acceptance of group members
2. Coordination is easier 3. Communication is easier 4. Existence of large alternatives 5. More information can be processed 6. Diversity of experience and perspectives
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Page 14 Group Decisions: Disadvantages
1. Take longer time
2. Group can be indecisive 3. Groups can compromise 4. Groups can be dominated 5. Groups can “play games” 6. Victim to Groupthink - group members over look other available alternatives for the sake of complete consensus
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Page 15 Decision Making with Quantitative Tools
1. Marginal Analysis – Comparison of additional revenues from additional
3. Risk Analysis – Determination of the nature and size of risk involved
4. Linear Programming – Technique for determination of optimum
combination of limited resources to minimize cost or to maximise profits.
5. Operations Research- Scientific analysis of decision problems
6. Decision Tree- Graphic method used for identifying the available
alternatives and the risk and outcome associated with each alternative.
7. Network Analysis- Analysis of a project into small interconnected in a
logical order. CPM and PERT
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Page 16 Decision Making with Qualitative Tools
1. Brainstorming - A group creativity technique by which a group tries to
find a solution for a specific problem by gathering a list of ideas spontaneously contributed by its members.
2. Delphi Technique - A structured communication technique, originally
developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer.
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Page 17 3. Nominal Group Technique- A decision making method for use among groups of many sizes, who want to make their decision quickly, as by a vote, but want everyone's opinions taken into account (as opposed to traditional voting, where only the largest group is considered) . Facilitators will encourage the sharing and discussion of reasons for the choices made by each group member, thereby identifying common ground, and a plurality of ideas and approaches. This diversity often allows the creation of a hybrid idea (combining parts of two or more ideas), often found to be even better than those ideas being initially considered. The numbers each solution receives are totalled, and the solution with the lowest (i.e. most favored) total ranking is selected as the final decision.
4. Simulation – Imitation of some real thing available, state of affairs, or
process. The act of simulating something generally entails representing certain key characteristics or behaviours of a selected physical or abstract system.