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Ocean Acidification
Ocean Acidification
Acidification
Summary for Policymakers
Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World
Scientific sponsors:
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) was launched in 1987 to
coordinate international research on global-scale and regional-scale interactions between
Earth’s biological, chemical and physical processes and their interactions with human
systems. IGBP’s international core projects Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and
Ecosystem Research (IMBER), Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS), Past
Global Changes (PAGES) and Land–Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) study
ocean acidification.
Citation:
IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013). Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third
Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World. International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme, Stockholm, Sweden.
Editors:
Wendy Broadgate (IGBP), Owen Gaffney (IGBP), Kirsten Isensee (IOC-UNESCO), Ulf
Riebesell (GEOMAR), Ed Urban (SCOR) and Luis Valdés (IOC-UNESCO).
Authors:
Wendy Broadgate, IGBP; Ulf Riebesell, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research
Kiel, Germany; Claire Armstrong, University of Tromsø, Norway; Peter Brewer, Monterey
Bay Aquarium Research Institute, USA; Ken Denman, University of Victoria, Canada;
Richard Feely, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, USA; Kunshan
Gao, Xiamen University, China; Jean-Pierre Gattuso, CNRS-UPMC, Laboratoire
d’Océanographie, France; Kirsten Isensee, IOC-UNESCO; Joan Kleypas, National Center
for Atmospheric Research (Climate and Global Dynamics), USA; Dan Laffoley, International
Union for Conservation of Nature, Switzerland; James Orr, Laboratoire des Sciences du
Climat et l’Environnement, France; Hans-Otto Pörtner, Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany;
Carlos Eduardo de Rezende, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminese, Brazil; Daniela
Schmidt, University of Bristol, UK; Ed Urban, SCOR; Anya Waite, University of Western
Australia; Luis Valdés, IOC-UNESCO.
The authors thank the following people for their comments on the draft manuscript: Jim
Barry (MBARI), Richard Black (Global Ocean Commission), Luke Brander (VU University
Amsterdam and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology), Sam Dupont
(Gothenburg University), Jonathan Wentworth (UK Parliamentary Office of Science and
Technology) and Wendy Watson-Wright (IOC-UNESCO).
Infographics:
Félix Pharand-Deschênes (Globaïa), Naomi Lubick (IGBP), Owen Gaffney (IGBP), Wendy
Broadgate (IGBP)
Cover image:
Ocean pH in 2100. Model data from Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology;
map by Globaïa.
Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification research
is growing rapidly. The Third Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are rising as a result of human
Symposium on the Ocean in activities, such as fossil fuel burning, and are increasing the acidity of
seawater. This process is known as ocean acidification. Historically, the ocean
a High-CO2 World (Monterey,
has absorbed approximately 30% of all CO2 released into the atmosphere
California, September 2012)
by humans since the start of the industrial revolution, resulting in a 26%
convened 540 experts from increase in the acidity of the ocean1.
37 countries to discuss the Ocean acidification causes ecosystems and marine biodiversity to change.
results of research into ocean It has the potential to affect food security and it limits the capacity of the
acidification, its impacts on ocean to absorb CO2 from human emissions. The economic impact of ocean
ecosystems, socio-economic acidification could be substantial.
consequences and implications Reducing CO2 emissions is the only way to minimise long-term,
for policy. More than twice as large-scale risks.
many scientists participated
in the Monterey symposium
compared to the previous
symposium four years earlier.
Katharina Fabricius
Within decades, large parts of the polar oceans will become corrosive to the
unprotected shells of calcareous marine organisms.
People who rely on the ocean’s ecosystem services are especially vulnerable
and may need to adapt or cope with ocean acidification impacts within
decades. Shellfish fisheries and aquaculture in some areas may be able to
cope by adjusting their management practices to avoid ocean acidification
impacts. Tropical coral reef loss will affect tourism, food security and
Katharina Fabricius shoreline protection for many of the world’s poorest people.
CANARY
Upwelling
Species shifts
Some species, like
seagrasses, may
thrive in more acidified
Benguela waters. Others may struggle
Upwelling to adapt. Any resulting losses
of species could lead to
lower biodiversity, a mark of
ecosystem health.
Observations of CO2 (parts per million) in the atmosphere and pH of Global CO2 emissions (white dots, uncertainty in grey)
surface seawater from Mauna Loa and Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) from fossil fuel use is following the high emissions
Station Aloha, Hawaii, North Pacific. trajectory (red line, RCP* 8.5) predicted to lead to a
Credit: Adapted from Richard Feely (NOAA), Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL significantly warmer world. Large and sustained emissions
(www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Ralph Keeling, Scripps reductions (blue line, RCP* 2.6) are required to increase
Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu) the likelihood of remaining within the internationally
agreed policy target of 2°C.
Credit: Glen Peters and Robbie Andrew (CICERO) and
the Global Carbon Project, adapted from Peters et al.,
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios — 2013 (reference 8). Historic data from Carbon Dioxide
Representative Concentration Pathways (reference 1). Information Analysis Center.
Ocean acidification in numbers
40% The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO ) levels since
the start of the industrial revolution.
2
Ocean stress
Ocean acidification is one of
many major changes happening
2100
in the ocean. Others include
warming water, decreasing
oxygen concentration,
overfishing and eutrophication.
CALIFORNIA
Upwelling
Corals
If high CO2 emissions
continue, changes in
carbonate chemistry and
warming of the tropical Upwelling regions
ocean may hamper or Big changes are expected
prevent coral reef growth in economically important
within decades. Warm upwelling regions, which
water corals shown in blue. already have lower natural
pH levels. Here, acidification,
warming and low oxygen
act together. (See orange
HUMBOLDT outlines.)
Upwelling
Shellfish
Economically valuable molluscs
such as mussels and oysters
are highly sensitive to ocean
acidification. Already, some
shellfisheries have had to adapt
to lower pH levels or relocate, as a
result of natural and human causes.
1850
Ocean acidification maps: model projections are calculated by MPI-ESM-LR; data provided by Tatiana Ilyina from Ocean Biogeochemistry Group, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.
Design: Félix Pharand-Deschênes, Globaïa.
OCEAN ACIDIFICATI N
Aragonite saturation in 2100
High CO2 emissions scenario (RCP* 8.5)
Arctic
Parts of the Arctic are already
corrosive to shells of marine
organisms, and most surface
waters will be within decades.
This will affect ecosystems and
people who depend on them.
Corals
Very high CO2 emissions will lead
to unfavourable surface water
conditions for tropical coral reef
growth by 2100, according to
estimates. Significant emissions
reductions could ensure 50% of
surface waters remain favourable
for coral reef growth***.
Saturation state
The “saturation state”, Omega (Ω), describes
the level of saturation of calcium carbonate in
seawater. Shown here is the mineral form of
calcium carbonate called aragonite. Antarctic
If CO2 emissions continue on the
If Ω is less than 1 (Ω<1), conditions are corrosive current trajectory (RCP* 8.5), 60%
(undersaturated) for aragonite-based shells and of Southern Ocean surface waters
skeletons. (on annual average) are expected to
become corrosive to the aragonite-
When Ω>1, waters are supersaturated with shelled organisms, for example
respect to calcium carbonate and conditions pteropods, which are part of the
are favourable for shell formation. Coral growth marine food web. Substantial
benefits from Ω≥3. emissions reductions (RCP* 2.6)
could prevent most of the Southern
By 2100, computer model projections show that Ocean surface waters from becoming
Ω will be less than 3 in surface waters around corrosive to the shells of aragonitic
tropical reefs if CO2 emissions continue on the organisms**.
current trajectory***.
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios — Representative Concentration Pathways (reference 1).
** Personal communication: Joos & Steinacher, after Steinacher et al., 2013 (reference 10).
*** Ricke et al., 2013 (reference 11).
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION page 6
Shells and skeletons
The shells and skeletons of many marine organisms are made from either
calcite or aragonite; both are forms of calcium carbonate. Scientists are
particularly interested in aragonite, which is produced by many corals
and some molluscs, because it is more soluble than calcite.
Organisms grow shells and skeletons more easily when carbonate ions in
water are abundant – “supersaturated”. Unprotected shells and skeletons
dissolve when carbonate ions in water are scarce – “undersaturated”.
2100
Phytoplankton
The hard shells of
coccolithophores – tiny floating
marine organisms – produce a
large fraction of marine calcium
carbonate. When they die, they
sink and carry carbon to the
depths of the ocean. They are
an important food source for
other marine life, as well as being
a major source of the climate-
cooling gas dimethylsulphide
(DMS).
1850
Ocean acidification maps: model projections are calculated by MPI-ESM-LR; data provided by Tatiana Ilyina from Ocean Biogeochemistry Group, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.
Design: Félix Pharand-Deschênes, Globaïa.
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION page 7
International research coordination
Stakeholder engagement
Images: © iStockphoto.com
Clams, scallops, Sea urchins, sea Shrimps, prawns, crabs, Small (herrings, Warm and cold water
mussels, oysters, cucumbers, starfish lobsters, copepods sardines, anchovies), coral
pteropods, abalone, (zooplankton), etc. large (tuna, bonitos,
conchs and cephalopods billfishes), demersal
(squid, cuttlefish and (flounders, halibut, cod,
octopuses) haddock), etc.
Ecosystem role
Mussels and pteropods Keystone species and Zooplankton such Major role in the Important ecosystem
are an important food a food source for fish. as copepods play a balance of ecosystems engineers, providing
source for fish, including Starfish are important central role in food as top predators or in habitat for a wide range
salmon (pteropods). predators. webs, connecting connecting important of marine species, many
Mussels and oysters phytoplankton (which trophic levels. of which are specialised
provide habitats for they eat) to predators to living in coral reefs.
other organisms. (fish and mammals).
Current estimated global commercial value♦
$24 billion $0.7 billion $37 billion $65 billion $30–375 billion◊
Locally important. Direct Locally important. Significant proportion These hotspots of
protein source in some “Luxury” food item; sea of human food, fish-oil marine biodiversity
island states. cucumbers are used manufacture and fish provide coastal
extensively in Chinese meal. Locally important: protection, attract
traditional medicine. dependence for food tourists and support
and income in some fisheries.
areas.
Vulnerability
Adults and juveniles Few species studied. Less affected than Indirect effects due to Reduced calcification,
have shown reduced Vulnerability in early life other groups. Thermal changes in prey and increased bio-erosion,
calcification, growth stages. Some species tolerance of some loss of habitats such as synergistic effects
and survival rates. Some may become locally crabs is reduced with corals likely. Possibly of warming and
species may become extinct. acidification. some direct effects on acidification.
locally extinct. behaviour, fitness and
larval survival.
100
80
Species (%)
60
40
20
♦
Commercial value for fisheries represents the sum of capture fisheries and aquaculture in 2010 in US dollars15.
◊
Today’s estimated value of global goods and services provided by coral reefs, such as coastline protection,
tourism, biodiversity and food16,17.
∆
Adapted from Wittmann and Pörtner, 201314. These data are for business-as-usual trajectories of CO2 levels.
Societies depend on
Confidence levels V
the ocean for various VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE
In this document, we use these
ecosystem services: confidence levels (right). For H HIGH CONFIDENCE
provisioning services, such further information on how these
as food; levels are determined, see the M MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
scientific background.
regulating services, such as
L LOW CONFIDENCE
carbon absorption from the
atmosphere;
The capacity of the ocean to act as a carbon sink
cultural services, such as V
decreases as it acidifies [VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE]
recreation; and
The ocean provides a vast sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Around
supporting services, such as one quarter of annual CO2 emissions from human activities currently end
nutrient cycling. up in the ocean18. This service cannot be relied on in the future. Atmospheric
CO2 is rising faster than the ocean can respond. The capacity of the ocean to
While much is known about the
absorb CO2 decreases as ocean pH decreases; that is, the buffering capacity
effects of ocean acidification
of seawater decreases19. This reduced capacity is a concern for stabilising
on individual organisms, CO2 emissions and implies that larger emissions cuts will be needed to meet
the potential responses of targets to mitigate climate change.
whole ecosystems are largely
unknown. Thus, although
Declines in shellfisheries will lead to economic
deleterious consequences are M
losses [MEDIUM CONFIDENCE], but the extent of the losses
expected for shellfish and warm
is uncertain
water corals (high confidence)
By 2100, estimated global annual economic losses due to declines in mollusc
and fisheries (low confidence),
production from ocean acidification could be more than $130 billion (US dollars,
it is difficult to quantify how
at 2010 price levels) for a business-as-usual CO2 emissions trend, according
the ecosystems and fisheries
to one estimate20 [LOW CONFIDENCE]. For the United States, a 13% reduction
will change and how societies in revenue is estimated by 2060 from declines in mollusc harvests due to
will adapt to and manage the acidification21 [LOW CONFIDENCE]. Economically important shellfish species may
changes. respond in different ways to ocean acidification (see table on p. 9), but we do not
know enough to make quantitative economic predictions for all fisheries yet.
Molluscs appear to be one of the most sensitive groups of organisms studied
under ocean acidification regimes. Indeed, oyster larvae in hatcheries in the
northeast Pacific Ocean region are very sensitive to ocean acidification and are
already affected by low pH waters22,23.
Social consequences
The examples illustrated here The current estimates of economic
highlight the potential for impacts are largely restricted to
substantial revenue declines, loss commercially marketed ecosystem
of employment and livelihoods, services such as fisheries and
and indirect economic costs that tourism. A full assessment must
may occur if ocean acidification take into account ecosystem services
damages marine habitats, alters beyond those that are directly
marine resource availability, and market-based, such as cultural
disrupts other ecosystem services. services, regulating services (such
© iStockphoto.com
L LOW CONFIDENCE
Agreement
Confidence scale
Evidence (type, amount, quantity, consistency)
Ocean
cean chemistry for shell and skeleton formation
In the ocean, CO2 reacts with In an acidifying ocean, skeletal This process is well understood
water and carbonate ions to and shell growth generally slows and well documented at a global
create carbonic acid. Elevated CO2 down significantly as the saturation scale. The saturation horizon will
levels reduce the concentration state decreases. For example, coral reach the ocean surface by the end
of carbonate ions. Shells of many growth benefits from high aragonite of this century in the North Pacific,
marine organisms are made of saturation states, larger than 3 the Arctic seas and Southern Ocean,
calcium carbonate, which has two (¯ ≥ 3)44. under RCP 8.5 (see p. 15).
main forms: calcite and aragonite. Conditions in the deep In upwelling areas such as in the
Both minerals dissolve at low Deep waters naturally contain more northeast Pacific Ocean and along
carbonate ion concentrations CO2 and have a lower pH compared the western coasts of South America
– known as “undersaturated with the surface ocean. Furthermore, and Africa, naturally more acidic
conditions” – unless the calcifying calcite and aragonite saturation deep waters upwell onto continental
organisms have evolved decreases with increasing pressure. shelves. The ocean uptake of
mechanisms to prevent dissolution, The boundary between these deeper anthropogenic CO2 has increased
such as protective layers or other undersaturated waters and the the extent of the areas affected by
means to isolate their carbonate shallower saturated waters is known as more acidic waters45, which include
structures from exposure to the “saturation horizon”. important fisheries grounds.
corrosive water43. Aragonite, which Increasingly, the aragonite
is formed by corals, by the first saturation horizon is becoming
larval stages of many molluscs, and shallower and thus corrosive
by some adult molluscs (including conditions for shell-forming
pteropods), is more soluble than organisms are moving
calcite, which is produced by closer to the surface.
coccolithophores, foraminifera,
echinoderms and crustaceans.
The scale for describing the level
of saturation of calcium carbonate
in seawater is the “saturation state”,
Omega (¯), where ¯ < 1 indicates
undersaturated (corrosive) and
Christina Kellogg; USGS
Adaptation
Acclimation is the ability of an individual organism to adjust to
environmental change. Acclimation can occur at various time-scales within
the lifetime of the organism. The responses, which are generally reversible,
allow the organism to perform across a range of environmental conditions.
Adaptation is the evolutionary response of a population – over multiple
generations – to a modified environment. The potential for evolutionary
adaptation is highest in species with short generation times and large
population sizes.
There is experimental evidence for evolutionary adaptation to ocean
acidification in some short-lived microorganisms, including calcareous
microalgae (coccolithophores)55. Members of this group have a high genetic
diversity, short generation times of a day or less, and huge population sizes
of up to a million cells per litre of seawater. In contrast, organisms with
longer generation times, such as corals, may struggle to adapt with the
magnitude and rate of ocean acidification that will occur in this century.
Photo by NEON ja; coloured by Richard Bartz
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