Conversion New

month customers # of retained customers in month A1

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13
Jan-13 80 78 75 72 70 69 67 66 66 65 64
Feb-13 88 88 86 82 78 77 76 73 72 70
Mar-13 105 103 103 98 94 92 90 86 82
Apr-13 110 107 106 102 99 97 92 90
May-13 115 114 112 105 98 97 96
Jun-13 128 128 122 119 115 110
Jul-13 137 136 129 122 118
Aug-13 151 149 145 135
Sep-13 161 158 154
Oct-13 168 167
78 163 261 362 465 580 696 821 952 1,086

% of retained customers in lifetime month B1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Jan-13 80 97.50% 93.75% 90.00% 87.50% 86.25% 83.75% 82.50% 82.50% 81.25% 80.00%
Feb-13 88 100.00% 97.73% 93.18% 88.64% 87.50% 86.36% 82.95% 81.82% 79.55%
Mar-13 105 98.10% 98.10% 93.33% 89.52% 87.62% 85.71% 81.90% 78.10%
Apr-13 110 97.27% 96.36% 92.73% 90.00% 88.18% 83.64% 81.82%
May-13 115 99.13% 97.39% 91.30% 85.22% 84.35% 83.48%
Jun-13 128 100.00% 95.31% 92.97% 89.84% 85.94%
Jul-13 137 99.27% 94.16% 89.05% 86.13%
Aug-13 151 98.68% 96.03% 89.40%
Sep-13 161 98.14% 95.65%
Customer lifetime estimates

Jan/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 78 75 72
Lost customers 3 3
Lifetime months of the lost customers 3 6

Total (months) 2627

Average customer lifetime (months) 32.84
Average customer lifetime (years) 2.74

MRR $7,650 $7,536 $7,234

Total $265,361
Average customer LTV $3,317

Feb/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 88 86 82
Lost customers 2 4
Lifetime months of the lost customers 2 8

Total (months) 2527

Average customer lifetime (months) 28.72
Average customer lifetime (years) 2.39

MRR $7,988 $7,688 $7,232

Total $245,650
Average customer LTV $2,791

Mrz/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 103 103 98

Lost customers 0 5
Lifetime months of the lost customers 0 10

Total (months) 2776

Average customer lifetime (months) 26.44
Average customer lifetime (years) 2.20

MRR $9,145 $8,897 $8,678

Total $329,865
 Average customer LTV $3,142

Apr/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 107 106 102

Lost customers 1 4
Lifetime months of the lost customers 1 8

Total (months) 3013

Average customer lifetime (months) 27.39
Average customer lifetime (years) 2.28

MRR $9,988 $9,657 $9,222

Total $498,434
Average customer LTV $4,531

Mai/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 114 112 105

Lost customers 2 7
Lifetime months of the lost customers 2 14

Total (months) 2732

Average customer lifetime (months) 23.76
Average customer lifetime (years) 1.98

MRR $11,678 $11,546 $11,321

Total $843,957
Average customer LTV $7,339

Jun/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 128 122 119

Lost customers 6 3
Lifetime months of the lost customers 6 6

Total (months) 3107

Average customer lifetime (months) 24.27
Average customer lifetime (years) 2.02

MRR $12,876 $12,546 $12,433

 Total $783,078
Average customer LTV $6,118

Jul/ 13 Lifetime month

Cohort 0 1 2

Retained customers 136 129 122

Lost customers 7 7
Lifetime months of the lost customers 7 14

Total (months) 2777

Average customer lifetime (months) 20.27
Average customer lifetime (years) 1.69

MRR $12,987 $12,756 $13,345

Total $1,901,643
Average customer LTV $13,881
 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

70 69 67 66 66 65 64 62 60
2 1 2 1 0 1 1 2 2
6 4 10 6 0 8 9 20 22

$6,982 $6,876 $6,780 $6,678 $6,567 $6,454 $6,342 $6,157 $6,032

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

78 77 76 73 72 70 67 65 64
4 1 1 3 1 2 3 2 1
12 4 5 18 7 16 27 20 11

$6,998 $6,890 $6,789 $6,679 $6,589 $6,459 $6,193 $6,040 $5,890

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

94 92 90 86 82 80 78 75 73
4 2 2 4 4 2 2 3 2
12 8 10 24 28 16 18 30 22

$8,569 $8,432 $8,352 $8,152 $7,988 $7,715 $7,653 $7,507 $7,364

 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

99 97 92 90 87 85 82 80 77
3 2 5 2 3 2 3 2 3
9 8 25 12 21 16 27 20 33

$8,901 $9,201 $9,468 $9,688 $9,218 $9,149 $9,128 $9,078 $9,028

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

98 97 96 90 87 84 81 78 75
7 1 1 6 3 3 3 3 3
21 4 5 36 21 24 27 30 33

$11,678 $11,755 $11,868 $11,890 $11,985 $12,085 $12,115 $12,189 $12,263

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

115 110 106 102 98 95 91 88 85

4 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3
12 20 20 24 28 24 36 30 33

$12,399 $12,976 $12,662 $12,671 $12,680 $12,689 $12,692 $12,699 $12,706

 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

118 112 107 102 97 93 89 85 81

4 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
12 24 25 30 35 32 36 40 44

$13,456 $13,849 $14,275 $14,752 $15,276 $15,843 $16,020 $16,451 $16,895

 Notes
12 59 60
1) It is assumed that no customer stays longer than 60 months. You mi
59 22 22 increase this interval, but generally speaking, making predictions more
1 1 0 5 years into the future is very speculative.
12 59 1320
2) To keep it simple, no discount rate is applied to future revenues.

3) All violet values are estimates.

4) Future churn is estimated by extrapolating from the cohort's historic

churn rate. The same goes for the MRR development.
$5,909 $2,241 $2,195
5) For older cohorts, the forecasting reliability is (obviously) better than
younger ones. For very young cohorts, forecasting lifetime value based
the cohort's first few lifetime months doesn't make sense, that's why I
haven't included the August and September cohorts below. However, y
can forecast those cohorts' lifetime by taking older cohorts' data as a p
(not done here).

12 59 60 Disclaimer: Please be aware that his model may be inaccurate, incorre

misleading, use it at your own risk, yada yada yada.
62 16 15
2 0 1 Feel free to distribute. If you distribute a modified version, please make
24 0 960 clear that you've made changes.

If you have any questions or comm

christoph@pointninecap
$5,745 $1,771 $1,727

Created by Christoph
at Point Nine C

12 59 60

70 15 14
3 0 1
36 0 900

$7,224 $2,925 $2,869

 12 59 60

75 18 17
2 0 1
24 0 1080

$8,979 $6,933 $6,895

12 59 60

72 12 12
3 0 0
36 0 720

$12,337 $16,396 $16,496

12 59 60

81 14 13
4 1 1
48 59 840

$12,713 $13,039 $13,046

 12 59 60

77 9 8
4 0 1
48 0 540

$17,350 $60,552 $62,183

er than 60 months. You might
, making predictions more than

ed to future revenues.

from the cohort's historic

elopment.

y is (obviously) better than for

asting lifetime value based on
make sense, that's why I
cohorts below. However, you
older cohorts' data as a proxy

may be inaccurate, incorrect or

a yada.

ified version, please make it

ve any questions or comments:

christoph@pointninecap.com

Created by Christoph Janz

at Point Nine Capital