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Seismic Hazard Mapping For Italy in Terms of Broadband Displacement Response Spectra
Seismic Hazard Mapping For Italy in Terms of Broadband Displacement Response Spectra
Seismic Hazard Mapping For Italy in Terms of Broadband Displacement Response Spectra
INTRODUCTION
After Eurocode 8 (CEN 2004) became the official reference for designing structures
for earthquake resistance in the European Union, national authorities in individual coun-
tries have been called to produce codes conforming to it. This requires, among other
things, to quantify and to map the basic ground motion hazard parameter. The latter is
denoted as ag, i.e., the peak ground acceleration for a reference return period of
475 years, corresponding to the 10% exceedance probability in 50 years in a Poisson
occurrence process.
A comparative analysis of the existing seismic code maps in the various European
countries was carried out by Garcia-Mayordomo et al. (2004). While the current state-
of-art in seismic hazard assessment (SHA) has significantly improved in the last decade
due to the acquisition of better quality seismic and strong ground motion data and to the
lessons learnt from past destructive earthquakes, the seismic hazard zonations associated
with the national seismic codes were found to be somewhat outdated with respect to the
available knowledge. Garcia-Mayordomo et al. (2004) compares the different hazard
maps through the analysis of some representative parameters (date of SHA, maximum
size earthquake, hazard descriptor, etc.) and highlights that most of countries at that time
a)
Department of Structural Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
b)
Ph D student, Rose School, Pavia, Italy
515
Earthquake Spectra, Volume 25, No. 3, pages 515–539, August 2009; © 2009, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
516 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
2007, Basili et al. 2008). Although this alternative representation of the earthquake gen-
erating potential in Italy has not yet been systematically exploited in the generation of
hazard maps at the country scale, it is evident that it could be used in the near future to
open a new generation of seismic hazard representations. The aim of introducing a
model of active faults is evidently to refine (locally) the seismic hazard map. An attempt
in this sense has been made by Marin et al. (2004) for the French context. Here, active
faults are very poorly defined except for the Provence region where some faults have
been documented and assumed to obey to the characteristic earthquake model of
Schwartz and Coppersmith (1984). However, the analyses are limited to short-period or-
dinates (actually, only PGA maps are produced) and are significantly affected by the
choices made on the maximum magnitude and recurrence intervals assigned to the ac-
tive faults.
The purpose of this article is to illustrate and discuss the previous alternative repre-
sentation of ground motion hazard for Italy in terms of broadband spectral displace-
ments. In particular, we highlight the differences between representing hazard, on one
hand, with a long period parameter akin to peak ground displacement and on the other
hand, representing it with a short period acceleration spectral ordinate, as well as the
practical impact that such differences could have if, for example, a displacement based
approach were to replace the traditional force-based approach in the seismic norms of a
country. In addition, we are also giving some foresight on the type of hazard map and
estimations resulting for a highly seismic region of Italy, from the use of a predomi-
nantly fault-based seismic source model, as opposed to a model of extended sources
such as ZS9.
Figure 1. Layout of Seismic Source Zones (SSZs) in ZS9 model (Meletti et al. 2008) for Italy
used in this study, with their maximum observed moment magnitude 共Mmax兲. For SSZs with a
light gray background, the expected maximum magnitude 共Mexp兲 has been set to 6.14, while for
all other SSZs, Mexp = Mmax. Some SSZs discussed in the text are labeled by their identification
number (e.g., ZS929). The sites shown in the map are used hereinafter. The rectangle indicates
the Calabrian Arc region, referred to in Figure 9.
= 10 s, in contrast to what is found in other attenuation equations (e.g., Boore and At-
kinson 2008).
For some applications, the following site-independent predictive relation for the dis-
placement spectrum ordinate at 10 s period, D10, has been computed by regressing all
the data together:
log10 D10 共cm兲 = − 4.68 + 1.08Mw − 0.95 log10 R 共km兲 log D10 = 0.26. 共2兲
Special attention was paid to the attenuation features in ZS 936, in Sicily (see Figure
1), coinciding with the zone of Mt. Etna volcano, where unusually shallow, low-
magnitude 共M ⬍ 5兲 earthquakes cause surface faulting and significant localized damage.
Some of these earthquakes, such as the ML 4.4—4.8 events of October 2002 (recorded
by SM accelerographs), feature anomalous high amplitudes in the 0.1-to 1.0 Hz fre-
quency range, resulting in unusually high (for the magnitude), long-period spectral dis-
placement response. To quantify this peculiarity, a regression was performed on 10 of
the 2002 SM records for M ⬎ 4 showing that the observed D10 values could be well fit by
artificially increasing the magnitude by 0.7 units in Equation 2. By way of testing the
influence of this modification on SHA, local hazard maps for D10 were generated for
different return periods and compared to the case without magnitude correction. The in-
crease in expected D10 value in the Mt. Etna area was found to reach about 25% for a
return period (RP) of 475 years, about 50% for RP= 72 yr, and 15% for RP= 975 yr. If
the magnitude correction is ignored the hazard level in the area turns out to be entirely
governed by the adjacent SSZ (especially to the NE where Mmax = 7.29); contrary to the
evidence of the historical damage record, this would occur also at the shorter return pe-
riods 共50 to 100 years兲. Hence, limited to the long period 共D10兲 maps and to attenuation
of ground motion generated within SSZ936, the magnitude correction factor was re-
tained in the hazard calculations.
Among the recent attenuation equations susceptible of application in the frame of
this study, those proposed by Boore and Atkinson (2008) for pseudo-acceleration (PSA)
spectral ordinates, belonging to the New Generation Attenuation (NGA) family, were
found to satisfy a number of requirements. These include retaining a relatively simple
analytical form, that allows application of the attenuation equation also to regions where
the parameters of active faults are not fully known, and allowing the prediction of
ground motion up to 10 s. Upon applying the pseudo-spectral relationship DRS共T兲
= 共T / 2兲2PSA共T兲, the Boore and Atkinson equations were used here to compute DRS.
Checks on a representative sample of digitally recorded accelerograms had shown that
PSA provides an excellent approximation to the true acceleration 共SA兲 over a broad
range of periods.
The Boore and Atkinson model uses the Joyner and Boore (1981) distance, RJB, and
allows to specify the prevalent focal mechanism of the SSZ. However, the database used
by Boore and Atkinson for regression contains no data for T ⬎ 5 s from normal fault
earthquakes, so that the “unspecified mechanism” version was used here in making com-
parisons. Furthermore, at long periods the Boore and Atkinson database contains very
few low magnitude events. This was found to result, in SHA calculations, in UH spectra
exhibiting physically unacceptable long period trends at sites in low seismicity zones
522 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
Figure 2. Uniform hazard DRS on rock calculated with attenuation Equation 1 (solid curves)
and with those of Boore and Atkinson (2008) (dashed curves), at three selected locations in
Italy. These include a low seismicity (Turin), a medium seismicity (Gubbio), and a high seis-
micity (Reggio Calabria) site, shown in Figure 1. The spectra correspond to return periods of 72
(no symbols), 475 (triangular symbols) and 975 years (cross symbols).
(indicatively Mmax ⬍ 6.5), as well as at sites removed from the SSZs (see the case of
Turin in Figure 2). Such unacceptable trends are likely to arise because no restrictions
have been imposed by the authors (Boore and Atkinson 2008) on the shapes that the
spectral accelerations should have at long periods (say, 4 s to 5 s and beyond), and in-
dicate that further checks are necessary to confirm the opinion held by many that NGA
equations represent the state-of-the-art in empirical ground motion prediction. On the
other hand, good agreement among UH spectra over a broad range of periods was found
at sites in high seismicity areas; see Reggio Calabria in Figure 2.
This and similar comparisons provided a basis for introducing in the logic tree to be
discussed in the next section, a separate branch for the Boore and Atkinson (2008) at-
tenuation equations, albeit with some limitations. In fact, due to the unsatisfactory per-
formance at long period, use of the Boore and Atkinson equations was made only in
generating DRS hazard maps for T ⱕ 5 s, while for longer periods only Equation 1 has
been retained. It may also noted that the Boore and Atkinson relationships contain at-
tenuation coefficients for only two spectral ordinates for T ⬎ 5 s, (namely 7.5 s and
10 s), generally insufficient for an accurate description of a UH DRS.
Further tests were performed by using the attenuation equations of Akkar and Bom-
mer (2007), based on predominantly analog European and Near East SM records, to es-
timate horizontal DRS within their limit of applicability 共T ⱕ 4 s兲. A comparison in
terms of UH spectra has been performed, as shown in Figure 3. Spectra on rock at three
representative sites for the Akkar and Bommer (2007) and Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008)
relations have been computed by using only the seismic source that dominates the haz-
ard for each location and the corresponding focal mechanism. For T ⬎ 3 s an increase of
log DRS at low magnitudes, which we find difficult to explain, causes a sharp increase in
UH spectra ordinates obtained from the Akkar and Bommer relations in low and me-
dium seismicity zones, such as Turin and Gubbio in Figure 3.
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 523
Figure 3. Uniform hazard DRS on rock for a return period of 475 yr. calculated with attenua-
tion equations 1 (solid curves) and with those of Akkar and Bommer (2007) (dashed curves), at
three selected locations in Italy. These include a low seismicity (Turin), a medium seismicity
(Gubbio), and a high seismicity (Reggio Calabria) site, shown in Figure 1. To derive the spectra
the following focal mechanisms were used: normal for Gubbio and Reggio Calabria, strike-slip
for Turin.
LOGIC TREE
Based on the previous discussion and the consistency requirements with project S1,
a logic tree with few branches was adopted to handle some of the epistemic uncertainties
in present SHA analyses (Figure 4); the branches only account for uncertainties related
to the completeness periods of the earthquake catalogue and to the attenuation of spec-
Figure 4. Logic tree used in the PSHA to produce maps of DRS ordinates up to 5 s. For T
⬎ 5 s the Boore and Atkinson branches were suppressed. The weights for each branch are also
indicated. “Co 4.2” and “Co 4.4” indicate respectively the “historical—statistical” and “statis-
tical” completenesses of the catalogue (see text). “C&F2008” means Cauzzi and Faccioli
(2008), while “B&A2008” means Boore and Atkinson (2008).
524 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
tral ordinates. Concerning the ground motion model, the applicability of the attenuation
equations by Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008) to the Italian context has been discussed in a
previous section and thoroughly considered in the cited article. Due to the small number
of data constraining the considered NGA attenuation equations for low magnitudes at
long periods, and considering the remarks made in the previous section (Figure 2), we
chose to adopt the tree of Figure 4 for generating hazard maps only for DRS ordinates
up to 5 s period. For larger periods, in particular T = 10 s, and for the calculation of UH
spectra the Boore and Atkinson attenuation branch was dropped, leaving only the two
branches for the completeness criteria. To be consistent with project S1, the same seis-
mogenic zonation, completeness criteria and G-R parameters have been adopted. Nev-
ertheless, the present UH displacement spectra differ significantly from the acceleration
spectra generated in S1 divided by 共2 / T兲2, because the attenuation relations used in S1
(developed 10-to-30 years ago) were constructed differently from the present one. An
alternative representation of seismic sources based on single active faults (Basili et al.
2008), representing a more advanced view of seismogenic structures in Italy, has not
been included in the logic tree owing to the large uncertainties affecting the identifica-
tion of several faults and to the noted need of consistency between the S1 and S5
projects. However, an example of application and comparisons between the two types of
source representations have been developed for a high seismicity region, and will be dis-
cussed in a later section.
Figure 6 shows the DRS map for T = 10 s, at the 50-percentile level, at the return
periods of 72, 475 an 975 yr. (top panel) and the maps for T = 5 s and 2 s, at the three
percentile levels (16-, 50- and 84 percentiles), at the 475 yr return period computed by
the logic tree in Figure 4 (central and bottom panel, respectively). The maps at 5 s and
2 s indicate that the influence of the uncertainties is limited because of the small number
of branches included in the logic tree in question.
After making due allowance for the well known circumstance that the shape of the
ground motion hazard contours is strongly influenced by the geometry of the SSZs (no
“soft” boundaries were used), a few comments on the maps are in order, and will be
better appreciated if the Mmax distribution in the various SSZs in Figure 1 is held in
sight. First, in Northern Italy (including the active Friuli region to the NE, where Mw 6.5
have occurred in recent times) and in a sizable portion of Central Italy and Southern
Italy, the spectral displacement at any period does not exceed the moderate level of
10– 12 cm, even at return periods as large as 1000 years, and is actually half of that or
less throughout most of such region. Only in limited zones of Central and Southern Italy,
where maximum magnitudes higher than 7 are expected, and for the longer recurrence
periods, does the spectral demand reach or exceed 20 cm on hard ground. It may be
interesting to recall that recent studies stemming from the S5 project indicate that, for a
return period of 475 yr., reinforced concrete buildings properly designed for non-
seismic loads can withstand an earthquake spectral demand of 3.5 cm largely without
damage and masonry buildings can withstand a spectral demand of 0.75 cm (Pinho et al.
2007). A second comment is that uncertainties reflected in the branches of the logic tree
in Figure 4 have a moderate but perceivable impact on the hazard estimates: for instance,
the maps of DRS ordinate of 5 s indicate that in the highest hazard areas in Central Italy
the spectral ordinate increase from the 16- to the 84-percentile level is roughly 50%.
Some further comments are postponed to the discussion section.
As a further output, UH DRS at 5% damping have been computed for all of the “co-
muni” (the smallest local administrations) in Italy for three return periods (72, 475 and
975 yr.) and for 16- 50- and 84 percentile levels. The logic tree used contains in this
case only one set of attenuation relations. Figure 7 shows average hard ground UH spec-
tra (with ±1 dispersion bands) at 5% damping for different groups of locations, iden-
tified by symbols on the map at the centre. In Northern Italy, where the maximum mag-
nitude of most SSZs is between 6.14 and 6.37 (see Figure 1), the fairly constant long
period branch in the UH spectra typically begins at a period between 1 and 3 s at loca-
tions inside the SSZs (e.g., Piedmont, Friuli and Tuscany). This would seem to support a
simplified bilinear representation of the spectra where the ordinate of the long period
branch can conveniently be taken equal to D10. With increasing distance from the SSZs,
e.g., as in most of Lombardy (the Milan region), the onset of the constant spectral
branch occurs at longer periods (typically between 3 s and 4.5 s) and a roughly tri-linear
approximation would seem to do a better job. Moving towards Southern Italy, the maxi-
mum magnitudes increase and this leads to a change in spectral shapes. Inside the SSZs
(as in Campania, east of Naples, and in the Calabrian Arc) the trilinear representation
appears more appropriate, while outside (e.g., as in Apulia and Sicily) a bilinear approxi-
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 527
Figure 6. Seismic hazard maps for Italy, depicting displacement response spectrum (DRS) or-
dinates at 0.05 damping on hard ground, in cm. Top row: DRS at 10 s (D10) and return periods
of 72 yr. (left), 475 yr. (center) and 975 yr. (right). Central and bottom rows: DRS at 5 s (D5)
period and 2 s (D2), respectively, for 475 yr. return period (median values at center, 16- and
84-percentiles at left and right). The layout of the SSZs is shown on each map.
528 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
Figure 7. At center, map of values of corner period TD, derived from Equation 4 for a return
period of 475 yr. In surrounding panels, plots of samples of 5% damped UH displacement
spectra (mean± 1 bands) at several groups of locations (indicated by bunches of circular sym-
bols on the map) in Italy. The region and number of spectra used in the sample is indicated in
each panel. Red bilinear curves in spectral plots were obtained as eye-fittings to the mean UH
DRS of each group, shown by a solid black curve, with shaded stripe representing the ±1
dispersion band. TD values determined from such fits (displayed on each panel) are shown by
the color fillings of circle symbols, so that they can be directly compared with the underlying
map values on same color scale.
mation (but with the constant branch typically beginning at about 7 s) seems quite sat-
isfactory.
One key goal for practical applications consists in defining a simplified DRS model
of seismic action. The results just illustrated suggest that the simplest (somewhat con-
servative in some cases) approximate shape for the DRS is bilinear, defined for = 5% by
the expressions
D10
0 ⬍ T 艋 TD DRS共T兲 = T 共3a兲
TD
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 529
2D10
TD = 共4兲
max PSV
T
where the denominator is the maximum value of the pseudo-velocity response spectrum.
The approximation Equation 3a is strictly intended for the DRS and should not be used
to estimate spectral acceleration through the pseudo-spectral relationship, because it
would predict infinite accelerations as T → 0. One practical way to make the bilinear ap-
proximation suitable also for the design of short-period structures, would be to impose
that the total base shear should not exceed a prescribed limit, e.g., proportional to 2.5
times the maximum ground acceleration ag, if the P-␦ effects are neglected (Sullivan
2008). As an alternative, more realistic spectral acceleration ordinates could be obtained
by using for displacement an approximation with at least three spectral branches. In such
case, the linear branch would not extend all the way between 0 and TD, but it would
merge with the ordinate prescribed by the reference seismic code (e.g., Eurocode 8,
CEN 2004) at T = TC, that is the control period terminating the plateau of the accelera-
tion response spectrum defined in the code.
The value of maxPSV in Equation 4 can be calculated from the UH DRS at a specific
location through the pseudo-spectral relation. The distribution of TD values, calculated
through Equation 4 for ground type A and 475 yr return period, is displayed on the map
at center of Figure 7. TD was found to be essentially independent of the return period
when the latter exceeds few hundred years. Only for a return period of 72 yr. (0.50 ex-
ceedance probability in 50 yr.) the TD values near the edges of SSZs tend to significantly
exceed the 475 yr. levels.
In order to check the reliability of Equation 4 in estimating TD, the UH DRS of a
large sample of sites (about 700, shown by circle symbols in Figure 7) were analyzed by
representative groups and fitted by eye using a bilinear shape, indicated by the dashed
red curves in the spectral plots of the figure. The TD values obtained by such fitting were
identified and represented by filling the circle symbols in Figure 7 according to the same
color scale adopted for the TD map generated through Equation 4.
By comparing the colors of the symbol fillings with those of the underlying TD map,
a very good agreement can generally be noted, with the most relevant exception occur-
ring in a limited zone of Northern Sicily, where TD values as high as 6.0 s to 7.5 s are
found where the coarser estimation indicated 4.5 s to 6.0 s. Thus, Equation 4 can be
considered as a good estimator of the corner period TD, and Equation 3, together with
the TD map of Figure 7 provide the designer with the required simple representation of
the design seismic action in terms of displacement spectrum.
The results we found for Italy do not conform with the NEHRP (BSSC 2003) criteria
adopted in mapping the long period spectral corner in the U.S.; such criteria make the
530 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
corner period in question depend only on the modal magnitude governing hazard at the
site, and just increase with magnitude. No account seems to be taken of the distance
dependence of TD and of the presence of more than one high magnitude SSZ that may
contribute to hazard. As an example, according to the NEHRP (BSSC 2003) criteria,
sites in Piedmont where hazard is controlled by SSZs with Mmax not exceeding 6.14,
should exhibit a corner period of 4 s, in contrast with the spectral shapes just illustrated
(see topmost left panel in Figure 7, where the corner period is less than 2 s). The dis-
tance dependence of TD was first pointed out by Faccioli et al. (2004) who noted that
“for M ⬍ 6.5 there is a moderate increase of the corner period with distance, likely due
to the increasing influence of surface waves” and also, “spectral values tend to increase
up to a corner period that depends on distance, around 2 s to 3 s for near-field and
4 s to 5 s for intermediate distance, and decrease gently towards the peak ground
displacement.”
Figure 8. Seismic sources in the zone shown by the red dashed rectangle in Figure 1, from the
DISS3 database, and earthquake epicenters associated to them.
In the region at study the ZS9 model contains the three source zones ZS929, ZS930,
and ZS932, see Figure 1, the corresponding seismicity parameters were drawn from the
previously introduced source (Working Group CPTI, 2004b). On the other hand, Figure
8 shows the sources from DISS3 that were included in our analysis, and the earthquake
epicenters from the reference catalog (CPTI04) associated to each source area. The
larger rectangles (in gray) denote SAs, amenable to a Poissonian description, while the
smaller rectangles (black rectangles with oblique shading) define surface projections of
faults assumed to display a characteristic earthquake behavior. The events denoted by
stars in Figure 8 represent historical occurrences of the characteristic earthquakes asso-
ciated to the faults, or GG sources, according to DISS3.
The occurrence rates and Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SA in Figure 8
were obtained through the standard data pre-processing required by Cornell’s (1968)
method applied to the earthquakes shown. The hypotheses made on the SAs for this
analysis are summarized in Table 1.
532
Table 1. Parameters of the DISS3 seismogenic area (SA) and faults (GG sources), shown in Figure 8, included in the analyses; TCE is the
estimated recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake (“CE” in the Table) of magnitude M
OBS: For SA “b” and “d,” due to the insufficient number of events associated only the characteristic earthquake modelling on the respective faults has been con-
sidered. SA= seismogenic area, GG= geological and geophysical source, CE= characteristic earthquake.
Figure 9. Maps of the 10 s spectral displacement ordinate (D10) calculated for 975 yr return
period, in the zone of Figure 8: (left) based on the ZS9 model (in green), (right) using the
DISS3 model of individual faults and Seimogenic Areas (red rectangles) with the shortest re-
currence intervals for faults (blue rectangles). The layout of individual faults and Seismogenic
Areas in latter map is as shown in Figure 8.
Concerning the faults proper (GG sources), characteristic earthquakes are seen in
Table 1 to be affected by large uncertainty in terms of slip rates and recurrence intervals.
Sensitivity analyses have shown that the variation of the slip rates can be neglected be-
cause of its low influence on the final results, hence average values have been used,
while the influence of the recurrence interval is relevant. Therefore, two analyses were
carried out in conjunction with the DISS3 fault sources: one using the shortest recur-
rence interval 共TCEគMIN兲 for all faults and one the largest interval 共TCEគMAX兲, so as to
quantify the bounds of the range of possible combinations of the recurrence intervals.
The results of the seismic hazard analysis performed with the two alternative repre-
sentation of the seismic sources are first compared in Figure 9 in the form of hazard
maps for the long period displacement spectral ordinate 共D10兲. The return period of
975 years was chosen for this purpose because, in addition to being significant for the
collapse prevention limit state verification of structures, it is somewhat larger than the
lower bound estimate of the recurrence interval (RI) of the characteristic earthquake on
the faults, see the TCE values in Table 1. As a matter of fact, if return periods ⰆTCE were
chosen, the modeling for the characteristic earthquakes (outlined in a previous section),
would result in much lower hazard estimates than for ZS9 with Poisson occurrence. The
strong influence of the seismogenic zonation is immediately apparent: the model con-
taining individual faults (DISS3 in Figure 9) results in a sharply different distribution of
the D10 values, with a peak exceeding 40 cm associated to the characteristic earthquake
on the “Messina Strait” fault. In addition to the different location and level of the hazard
peaks, the substantially smaller amount of “smearing” produced by the DISS3 model
with respect to ZS9 is worth noting.
534 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
Figure 10. Comparison of seismic hazard maps: (left) at short period, i. e. the maximum
ground acceleration 共PGA= ag兲 map adopted in current Italian Norms (NT2008) and, (right) the
long period spectral displacement (D10) map, for 0.10 exceedance probability in 50 years,
ground type A.
536 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI
Figure 11. Comparison among the elastic displacement response spectra of current Italian
building code (named “NT 2008”), the UH spectra from project S1 and UH spectra of present
study at three locations.
be seriously misleading since, as we see in the mentioned figure, there are many regions
with TD ⬎ 2.5 s. From these observations, one can correctly conclude that short- and
long-period hazard pictures can be vastly different, and consequently, both short- and
long-period anchors should be furnished by a building code. In this way the designer
would have a (hopefully) accurate description of the design ground motion both in am-
plitude and in shape that would be useful for both displacement and force design appli-
cations.
We also note that the quantification of the design displacement spectrum into the
10 s to 15 s period range (or beyond) should be considered in the light of the increasing
number of very tall buildings and great bridges being erected or designed in different
regions of the world. As an example, the fundamental (initial) vibration mode of the Burj
Dubai Tower, now in a stage of advanced construction (over 780 m high as of December
2008), has been calculated at 11.3 s (Baker et al. 2008), while the projected, one-span
suspension bridge across the Messina Strait, Italy, has a computed fundamental period
exceeding 30 s (Brancaleoni and Diana, 1993). We may also add that in practice the ac-
tual vibration periods of reinforced concrete structures are often underestimated by us-
ing values of effective (cracked) stiffness on the high side; the justification is that in
force based verification methods shorter vibration periods entail higher estimated forces.
This will bring the designer to believe to be on the conservative side, but in reality he
will underestimate displacements.
Finally, a comparison is displayed in Figure 11 among the present UH displacement
spectra, the spectra derived by applying the pseudo spectral relation to the UH accelera-
tion spectra provided by the current norms (NT 2008, limited to the interval 0 – 2 s), and
the simplified displacement spectra proposed in the same norms, modified from Euro-
code 8 Annex A (CEN 2004). The comparison refers to three sites with different seis-
micity levels. As already mentioned, the first two types of UH spectra mainly differ be-
cause of the different attenuation relations used in their derivation, but they are
essentially consistent in the limited 0 – 2 s range of periods. On the other hand, the full
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 537
displacement spectra of the norms (dash-dotted curves in Figure 11), anchored to the ag
values of the map in Figure 10, clearly underestimate the corner period and generally
tend to underestimate the long period spectral level.
In conclusion, although the displacement spectra for vertical motion and UH spectra
at damping levels different from 5% are not described herein (due to space limitations),
the present work is believed to provide a full quantification of the seismic hazard input
needed for displacement based design. Perhaps even more significant is that, in the case
of Italy, the picture of hazard in terms of displacement demand points to a significantly
different prioritization of resources for earthquake risk mitigation through the applica-
tion of seismic norms, with respect to the current situation.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work draws extensively from the results of the Italian seismological project S5
(“Definizione dell’input sismico sulla base degli spostamenti attesi”) of the 2006-07
DPC-INGV research programs; the project was coordinated by E. Faccioli and A. Rov-
elli. The authors are grateful to M. Ordaz, to J.J. Bommer and to D. Slejko for comments
that helped them to significantly improve the manuscript, and also to T. Sullivan for his
valuable suggestions.
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(Received 3 July 2008; accepted 9 March 2009兲