Seismic Hazard Mapping for Italy

in Terms of Broadband Displacement

Response Spectra
Ezio Facciolia) and Manuela Villanib)

A new representation of seismic hazard is proposed for Italy based on

displacement elastic response spectra in a vibration period range that extends
from 0 s to 20 s. This relies on an available seismotectonic zonation and
earthquake catalogue, but makes use of a set of very recent, expressly
developed attenuation relations. The long period picture of ground motion
hazard is illustrated vis-à-vis the conventional one based on ground
acceleration, and the feasibility of simple approximations of the displacement
spectra, useful for design purposes, is shown. We give some foresight on the
differences to be expected in hazard maps resulting from the use of a
predominantly fault-based seismic source model, as opposed to the more
conventional model that includes only spatially extended zones. Finally, we
highlight the different hazard exposure of different regions depending on
whether we represent hazard with a long or a short period parameter and we
discuss the adequacy of recent code provisions regarding elastic displacement
spectra. 关DOI: 10.1193/1.3159004兴

INTRODUCTION
After Eurocode 8 (CEN 2004) became the official reference for designing structures
for earthquake resistance in the European Union, national authorities in individual coun-
tries have been called to produce codes conforming to it. This requires, among other
things, to quantify and to map the basic ground motion hazard parameter. The latter is
denoted as ag, i.e., the peak ground acceleration for a reference return period of
475 years, corresponding to the 10% exceedance probability in 50 years in a Poisson
occurrence process.
A comparative analysis of the existing seismic code maps in the various European
countries was carried out by Garcia-Mayordomo et al. (2004). While the current state-
of-art in seismic hazard assessment (SHA) has significantly improved in the last decade
due to the acquisition of better quality seismic and strong ground motion data and to the
lessons learnt from past destructive earthquakes, the seismic hazard zonations associated
with the national seismic codes were found to be somewhat outdated with respect to the
available knowledge. Garcia-Mayordomo et al. (2004) compares the different hazard
maps through the analysis of some representative parameters (date of SHA, maximum
size earthquake, hazard descriptor, etc.) and highlights that most of countries at that time

a)
Department of Structural Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
b)
Ph D student, Rose School, Pavia, Italy

515
Earthquake Spectra, Volume 25, No. 3, pages 515–539, August 2009; © 2009, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
516 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

still used macroseismic intensity as hazard descriptor instead of instrumental ground

motion parameters. Furthermore, the only countries that adopted a seismic hazard map
based on a probabilistic approach and derived from attenuation relationships for maxi-
mum ground acceleration were Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Switzerland, and
Turkey.
Among EU countries with high earthquake hazard exposure, Italy has witnessed a
notable progress in the field of SHA studies since 2004. This progress benefited from a
revised assessment of the Italian seismotectonic context, resulting in the so-called ZS9
model of seismic source zones (SSZs) (Meletti et al. 2008) specifically conceived for
seismic hazard assessment, in conjunction with the updated earthquake catalogue
CPTI04 (Working Group CPTI 2004b). With this input, a new probabilistic map was
developed for ag, using a formal logic tree structure for quantifying a number of
epistemic uncertainties (Working Group 2004a).
The previous activity was followed, in the period 2005–2007, by two national re-
search projects (sponsored by the Department for Civil Defence of Italy, or DPC),
namely:
• Project S1, which added to the previous work maps of the 5% damped, horizontal
acceleration response spectral ordinates in the 0 s-2 s period range and produced
the uniform hazard (UH) spectra adopted in the current Italian building code,
called Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni (2008), called in the following NT
2008, and not fully compatible with Eurodode 8, and
• Project S5, that produced an alternative, new representation of seismic hazard by
mapping the horizontal displacement response spectral (DRS) ordinates in the
broad range of vibration periods from 0.05 s to 20 s, making use of the cited
ZS9 model with the reference earthquake catalogue CPTI04, but relying on a set
of expressly developed attenuation relations (Cauzzi and Faccioli 2008); a rather
preliminary version of the results of S5 may be found in Faccioli et al. (2007).
Rules for determining vertical DRS form horizontal ones, as well as for deriving
spectra for damping ratios up to 30% from the 5% damped ones, were also pro-
vided by S5.
Concerning the scope of the latter, mapping the seismic demand as DRS is a natural
consequence of adopting the displacement based design approach (Priestley et al. 2007).
A remarkable opening in this direction is provided by Eurocode 8, Part 1 (CEN 2004),
which contains a full specification of the displacement spectrum up to a period T
= 10 s, well beyond the 0 s to 4 s range over which seismic hazard is normally mapped
(and the acceleration spectrum defined).
The seismotectonic zonation that was used in both the S1 and S5 projects (referred
to in more detail later on) is still a conventional one, i.e., it is made up of zones (without
faults) with uniform seismicity, characterized by a frequency-magnitude relationship. At
the same time, significant progress was also made towards alternative representations of
seismic sources, whereby seismically active fault sources, and seismogenic areas, have
been identified, or inferred, and characterized through geometrical fault parameters (in-
cluding an uncertainty range), focal mechanisms and slip rates (DISS3 Working Group
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 517

2007, Basili et al. 2008). Although this alternative representation of the earthquake gen-
erating potential in Italy has not yet been systematically exploited in the generation of
hazard maps at the country scale, it is evident that it could be used in the near future to
open a new generation of seismic hazard representations. The aim of introducing a
model of active faults is evidently to refine (locally) the seismic hazard map. An attempt
in this sense has been made by Marin et al. (2004) for the French context. Here, active
faults are very poorly defined except for the Provence region where some faults have
been documented and assumed to obey to the characteristic earthquake model of
Schwartz and Coppersmith (1984). However, the analyses are limited to short-period or-
dinates (actually, only PGA maps are produced) and are significantly affected by the
choices made on the maximum magnitude and recurrence intervals assigned to the ac-
tive faults.
The purpose of this article is to illustrate and discuss the previous alternative repre-
sentation of ground motion hazard for Italy in terms of broadband spectral displace-
ments. In particular, we highlight the differences between representing hazard, on one
hand, with a long period parameter akin to peak ground displacement and on the other
hand, representing it with a short period acceleration spectral ordinate, as well as the
practical impact that such differences could have if, for example, a displacement based
approach were to replace the traditional force-based approach in the seismic norms of a
country. In addition, we are also giving some foresight on the type of hazard map and
estimations resulting for a highly seismic region of Italy, from the use of a predomi-
nantly fault-based seismic source model, as opposed to a model of extended sources
such as ZS9.

BASIC INPUT DATA

SEISMIC SOURCE ZONES: GEOMETRY AND FREQUENCY-MAGNITUDE

CHARACTERIZATION
Since both the previously introduced projects belonged to the same batch, the con-
sistency requirements imposed by the end user (the Department of Civil Protection of
Italy) demanded that project S5, entitled “Definition of the seismic input based on ex-
pected displacements,” in which the present study was generated, should rely to the ex-
tent possible on the same input data as S1 (“Completion of the seismic hazard map fore-
seen by the Prime Minister Decree 3274 and design of further developments”). First
among these input data was the previously introduced model of SSZs called ZS9, de-
scribed in detail by Meletti et al. (2008). For ease of reference, the geometry of the SSZs
of this model is reproduced in Figure 1, which shows also the maximum observed mo-
ment magnitude, MW max, (hereafter denoted for simplicity as Mmax) associated to each
zone.
The notable features of ZS9 include (Meletti et al. 2008):
• Close consistency with the recent parametric earthquake catalogue CPTI04
(Working Group CPTI 2004b), that should be used in conjunction with ZS9 in
SHA applications
• Consideration of all earthquakes with moment magnitude MW ⱖ 5.0, and all in-
518 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

Figure 1. Layout of Seismic Source Zones (SSZs) in ZS9 model (Meletti et al. 2008) for Italy
used in this study, with their maximum observed moment magnitude 共Mmax兲. For SSZs with a
light gray background, the expected maximum magnitude 共Mexp兲 has been set to 6.14, while for
all other SSZs, Mexp = Mmax. Some SSZs discussed in the text are labeled by their identification
number (e.g., ZS929). The sites shown in the map are used hereinafter. The rectangle indicates
the Calabrian Arc region, referred to in Figure 9.

dividual earthquake sources capable of generating MW ⱖ 5.5 (DISS3 Working

Group 2007)
• Characteristic seismogenic depth associated to each SSZ (mostly equal to the
mode of the depth frequency distribution of well located earthquakes in a
20-year (1983–2002) window from the INGV instrumental catalogue)
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 519

• Predominant focal mechanism assigned to each SSZ, as well as an uncertainty

range associated to its boundaries
• Subset of the parametric CPTI04 catalogue “assigned” to each SSZ, together
with appropriate estimates of the completeness intervals
Due to the requirements of the computational tool used for SHA (discussed below),
the seismic activity of the SSZs was quantified through the parameters a and b of the
Gutenberg and Richter (G-R) relationship, log ␯ = a + b共M − Mmin兲, yielding an annual
rate ␭ = 10a of earthquakes with magnitude not smaller than a lower bound moment mag-
nitude Mmin. For the estimation of the G-R parameters two criteria of catalogue com-
pleteness have been defined in project S1 and applied to the CPTI04 catalogue: a)
“historical-statistical” completeness (called Co 4.2) and “statistical” completeness
(called Co 4.4). For both, Mmin was taken equal to 4.76 in all SSZs, except for the Mt.
Etna volcano zone ZS936 where Mmin = 4.35 was adopted. The lower bound magnitude
can also be assumed to represent the smallest earthquake of engineering significance.
Consistently, an exponential distribution truncated at a lower 共Mmin兲, and an upper limit
共Mmax兲 was used for magnitude. The upper magnitude bound, Mmax, assigned to each
SSZ plays here a critical role because, as we shall see, the displacement spectral ordi-
nates scale directly as 10M at periods greater than about 4 s to 5 s.
Two values of Mmax had originally been defined for each SSZ (Working Group
2004a), namely Mmax 1, the largest magnitude (Mmax, in Figure 1) for the events included
in the appropriate subset of catalogue CPTI04 (used to calculate the G-R b-value) and, in
addition, a value Mmax 2 ⱖ Mmax 1 conservatively estimated at 6.14 for every zone where
Mmax 1 would be less than such value (except for the “volcanic” zones 922, 928 and 936,
see Figure 1). The seismic zones where Mmax 2 ⬎ Mmax 1 are shown with a different back-
ground in Figure 1. This assumption entails the consequence that events larger than
those included in the catalogue are actually assumed to contribute to the hazard.
To assess the influence of maximum magnitude assumptions on the calculated haz-
ard, as a first step advantage was taken of the capability of the computational code to
handle such parameter in a Bayesian framework by defining an “observed” maximum
magnitude 共Mobs兲 and an “expected” one 共Mexp兲, both regarded as random variables. The
influence, on the calculated hazard as well as on computation time, was evaluated by
comparing uniform hazard (UH) 475 yr spectra computed with Mexp = Mobs = Mmax 1 and
UH spectra with the two different magnitudes Mobs = Mmax 1 and Mexp = Mmax 2, for cities
in Northern Italy where most zones have an expected magnitude greater than the ob-
served one. The differences turned out to be small or negligible, while the computation
times become almost double when using the two different magnitudes. Hence, no Baye-
sian updating for the maximum magnitude has been assumed in the following.
As a second step, separate analyses were also run for the same locations, a first time
with Mmax 1 as maximum magnitude and a second time with Mmax 2, using the T = 10 s
spectral displacement ordinate as hazard descriptor. Differences typically less than 15%
were found in the spectral ordinates at 10 s for a fixed exceedance rate in the whole
country; hence, Mmax 2 has been conservatively chosen as the maximum magnitude to be
used in all analyses.
520 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

GROUND MOTION ATTENUATION

The empirical attenuation model developed within the cited S5 project (Cauzzi and
Faccioli 2008) was the main tool used for predicting the displacement response spectral
ordinates, having the form

log10 DRS共T; ␨兲 共cm兲 = a1 + a2MW + a3 log10 R + aBSB + aCSC + aDSD + ␧ 共1兲

where DRS is the response spectrum ordinate (geometric average of horizontal compo-
nents), T共s兲 is the vibration period, ␨ is the damping ratio and ai 共i = 1 , ..D兲 are numeri-
cal coefficients depending on period and damping ratio, determined through regressions.
␧ denotes a random error term, assumed as normally distributed with zero mean and
standard deviation ␴logDRS. SB, SC, SD are dummy variables accounting for the main
ground categories contemplated in the current European Norms (CEN 2004), with the
following values: SB = SC = SD = 0 for type A (rocklike) ground, with VS30 ⱖ 800 ms−1;
SB = 1 and SC = SD = 0 for type B (stiff) ground, with 360 ms−1 ⱕ VS30 ⬍ 800 ms−1; SB
= SD = 0, SC = 1 for type C ground, with 180 ms−1 ⱕ VS30 ⬍ 360 ms−1, and SB = SC = 0,
SD = 1 for type D (very soft) ground, with VS30 ⬍ 180 ms−1. At least three dummy vari-
ables are necessary to correctly predict the amplification factors with respect to ground
type A, especially in terms of range of dominant periods of site response (Douglas 2003,
Pousse et al. 2005, Faccioli et al. 2007).
The coefficients of Equation 1, both for horizontal and vertical motion, were com-
puted by regressing a dataset of 1164 tri-axial digital (and 9 analog) accelerometer
records from 60 earthquakes worldwide of which 84% from Japan, 6% from Iran, 5%
from the United States, 5% from Europe and Turkey. Over 80% of the data were re-
corded at sites with instrumentally measured VS profiles. The equation estimates the
spectral displacement caused by crustal earthquakes with 5.0ⱕ MW ⱕ 7.2 and focal dis-
tance R ⬍ 150 km. The focal distance is convenient for application in seismic hazard
analyses contemplating SSZ of different depths, as in the present study. A simple func-
tional form such as Equation 1 allows to carry out PSHAs with relatively few predictor
variables, especially for the earthquake sources, such as are typically available in Euro-
pean seismic regions. Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008) also showed that by adding complexity
into Equation 1, e.g., through a quadratic dependence on magnitude or through the style
of faulting, the uncertainty associated with the predictions would not decrease. The same
authors used statistical analysis of variance to investigate the possible regional depen-
dence of the DRS in the database, and concluded that the evidence for such dependence
is very weak, if any. This indication, as well as deterministic comparisons with other
recent studies in Europe and in the United States, strongly supports the applicability of
the present DRS attenuation relationship to a region such as Italy, where the available
digital data are not enough to develop a reliable prediction model over a broad period
range. The coefficients of Equation 1 for 5%-, 10%-, 20%- and 30%-damped spectra are
provided in Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008) for 400 equally spaced values of period between
0.05 s and 20 s, together with the coefficients for the prediction of vertical, 5%-damped
spectra. It is also worth mentioning that the standard deviation of predicted spectral re-
sponse decreases with increasing vibration period, from 0.38 at T = 0.1 s to 0.25 at T
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 521

= 10 s, in contrast to what is found in other attenuation equations (e.g., Boore and At-
kinson 2008).
For some applications, the following site-independent predictive relation for the dis-
placement spectrum ordinate at 10 s period, D10, has been computed by regressing all
the data together:

log10 D10 共cm兲 = − 4.68 + 1.08Mw − 0.95 log10 R 共km兲 ␴log D10 = 0.26. 共2兲
Special attention was paid to the attenuation features in ZS 936, in Sicily (see Figure
1), coinciding with the zone of Mt. Etna volcano, where unusually shallow, low-
magnitude 共M ⬍ 5兲 earthquakes cause surface faulting and significant localized damage.
Some of these earthquakes, such as the ML 4.4—4.8 events of October 2002 (recorded
by SM accelerographs), feature anomalous high amplitudes in the 0.1-to 1.0 Hz fre-
quency range, resulting in unusually high (for the magnitude), long-period spectral dis-
placement response. To quantify this peculiarity, a regression was performed on 10 of
the 2002 SM records for M ⬎ 4 showing that the observed D10 values could be well fit by
artificially increasing the magnitude by 0.7 units in Equation 2. By way of testing the
influence of this modification on SHA, local hazard maps for D10 were generated for
different return periods and compared to the case without magnitude correction. The in-
crease in expected D10 value in the Mt. Etna area was found to reach about 25% for a
return period (RP) of 475 years, about 50% for RP= 72 yr, and 15% for RP= 975 yr. If
the magnitude correction is ignored the hazard level in the area turns out to be entirely
governed by the adjacent SSZ (especially to the NE where Mmax = 7.29); contrary to the
evidence of the historical damage record, this would occur also at the shorter return pe-
riods 共50 to 100 years兲. Hence, limited to the long period 共D10兲 maps and to attenuation
of ground motion generated within SSZ936, the magnitude correction factor was re-
tained in the hazard calculations.
Among the recent attenuation equations susceptible of application in the frame of
this study, those proposed by Boore and Atkinson (2008) for pseudo-acceleration (PSA)
spectral ordinates, belonging to the New Generation Attenuation (NGA) family, were
found to satisfy a number of requirements. These include retaining a relatively simple
analytical form, that allows application of the attenuation equation also to regions where
the parameters of active faults are not fully known, and allowing the prediction of
ground motion up to 10 s. Upon applying the pseudo-spectral relationship DRS共T兲
= 共T / 2␲兲2PSA共T兲, the Boore and Atkinson equations were used here to compute DRS.
Checks on a representative sample of digitally recorded accelerograms had shown that
PSA provides an excellent approximation to the true acceleration 共SA兲 over a broad
range of periods.
The Boore and Atkinson model uses the Joyner and Boore (1981) distance, RJB, and
allows to specify the prevalent focal mechanism of the SSZ. However, the database used
by Boore and Atkinson for regression contains no data for T ⬎ 5 s from normal fault
earthquakes, so that the “unspecified mechanism” version was used here in making com-
parisons. Furthermore, at long periods the Boore and Atkinson database contains very
few low magnitude events. This was found to result, in SHA calculations, in UH spectra
exhibiting physically unacceptable long period trends at sites in low seismicity zones
522 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

Figure 2. Uniform hazard DRS on rock calculated with attenuation Equation 1 (solid curves)
and with those of Boore and Atkinson (2008) (dashed curves), at three selected locations in
Italy. These include a low seismicity (Turin), a medium seismicity (Gubbio), and a high seis-
micity (Reggio Calabria) site, shown in Figure 1. The spectra correspond to return periods of 72
(no symbols), 475 (triangular symbols) and 975 years (cross symbols).

(indicatively Mmax ⬍ 6.5), as well as at sites removed from the SSZs (see the case of
Turin in Figure 2). Such unacceptable trends are likely to arise because no restrictions
have been imposed by the authors (Boore and Atkinson 2008) on the shapes that the
spectral accelerations should have at long periods (say, 4 s to 5 s and beyond), and in-
dicate that further checks are necessary to confirm the opinion held by many that NGA
equations represent the state-of-the-art in empirical ground motion prediction. On the
other hand, good agreement among UH spectra over a broad range of periods was found
at sites in high seismicity areas; see Reggio Calabria in Figure 2.
This and similar comparisons provided a basis for introducing in the logic tree to be
discussed in the next section, a separate branch for the Boore and Atkinson (2008) at-
tenuation equations, albeit with some limitations. In fact, due to the unsatisfactory per-
formance at long period, use of the Boore and Atkinson equations was made only in
generating DRS hazard maps for T ⱕ 5 s, while for longer periods only Equation 1 has
been retained. It may also noted that the Boore and Atkinson relationships contain at-
tenuation coefficients for only two spectral ordinates for T ⬎ 5 s, (namely 7.5 s and
10 s), generally insufficient for an accurate description of a UH DRS.
Further tests were performed by using the attenuation equations of Akkar and Bom-
mer (2007), based on predominantly analog European and Near East SM records, to es-
timate horizontal DRS within their limit of applicability 共T ⱕ 4 s兲. A comparison in
terms of UH spectra has been performed, as shown in Figure 3. Spectra on rock at three
representative sites for the Akkar and Bommer (2007) and Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008)
relations have been computed by using only the seismic source that dominates the haz-
ard for each location and the corresponding focal mechanism. For T ⬎ 3 s an increase of
␴log DRS at low magnitudes, which we find difficult to explain, causes a sharp increase in
UH spectra ordinates obtained from the Akkar and Bommer relations in low and me-
dium seismicity zones, such as Turin and Gubbio in Figure 3.
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 523

Figure 3. Uniform hazard DRS on rock for a return period of 475 yr. calculated with attenua-
tion equations 1 (solid curves) and with those of Akkar and Bommer (2007) (dashed curves), at
three selected locations in Italy. These include a low seismicity (Turin), a medium seismicity
(Gubbio), and a high seismicity (Reggio Calabria) site, shown in Figure 1. To derive the spectra
the following focal mechanisms were used: normal for Gubbio and Reggio Calabria, strike-slip
for Turin.

LOGIC TREE
Based on the previous discussion and the consistency requirements with project S1,
a logic tree with few branches was adopted to handle some of the epistemic uncertainties
in present SHA analyses (Figure 4); the branches only account for uncertainties related
to the completeness periods of the earthquake catalogue and to the attenuation of spec-

Figure 4. Logic tree used in the PSHA to produce maps of DRS ordinates up to 5 s. For T
⬎ 5 s the Boore and Atkinson branches were suppressed. The weights for each branch are also
indicated. “Co 4.2” and “Co 4.4” indicate respectively the “historical—statistical” and “statis-
tical” completenesses of the catalogue (see text). “C&F2008” means Cauzzi and Faccioli
(2008), while “B&A2008” means Boore and Atkinson (2008).
524 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

tral ordinates. Concerning the ground motion model, the applicability of the attenuation
equations by Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008) to the Italian context has been discussed in a
previous section and thoroughly considered in the cited article. Due to the small number
of data constraining the considered NGA attenuation equations for low magnitudes at
long periods, and considering the remarks made in the previous section (Figure 2), we
chose to adopt the tree of Figure 4 for generating hazard maps only for DRS ordinates
up to 5 s period. For larger periods, in particular T = 10 s, and for the calculation of UH
spectra the Boore and Atkinson attenuation branch was dropped, leaving only the two
branches for the completeness criteria. To be consistent with project S1, the same seis-
mogenic zonation, completeness criteria and G-R parameters have been adopted. Nev-
ertheless, the present UH displacement spectra differ significantly from the acceleration
spectra generated in S1 divided by 共2␲ / T兲2, because the attenuation relations used in S1
(developed 10-to-30 years ago) were constructed differently from the present one. An
alternative representation of seismic sources based on single active faults (Basili et al.
2008), representing a more advanced view of seismogenic structures in Italy, has not
been included in the logic tree owing to the large uncertainties affecting the identifica-
tion of several faults and to the noted need of consistency between the S1 and S5
projects. However, an example of application and comparisons between the two types of
source representations have been developed for a high seismicity region, and will be dis-
cussed in a later section.

THE COMPUTATIONAL TOOL

All the SH hazard computations were performed with the CRISIS2003 program (Or-
daz et al. 1991) which, unlike other widely used codes (e.g., FRISK88M, Risk Engi-
neering Inc. 2006), is designed for applications to extended regions. In other codes, e.g.,
in SEISRISK, the attenuation table cannot include values larger than about 70, inad-
equate for representing hazard in terms of spectral displacement.
CRISIS2003 includes the Esteva-Cornell model (McGuire 2008) and treats the
b-value of the G-R relation, the activity rate ␭0 and Mmax as random variables with
Bayes’ theorem. As already mentioned, although this feature allows to include separately
both the “observed” and the “expected” Mmax value of the SSZ, the small differences in
the results and the larger computational time have led to assume Mobs = Mexp = Mmax 2,
i.e., the maximum expected magnitude defined in S1 project. In addition to the classical
Poisson process, CRISIS2003 provides also a characteristic earthquake model option.
The underlying assumptions for the characteristic earthquake model are that the time be-
tween characteristic events is lognormally distributed (Jara and Rosenblueth, 1988), that
the expected value and the standard deviation of the magnitude of the event that may
occur at time t follow a slip predictable model, and also that for a given magnitude the
spectral response does not depend explicitly on the time elapsed since the last charac-
teristic event (Ordaz et al. 1991). The reason is that, indeed, for a given magnitude the
spectral response is time-independent, but since the magnitude is time-dependent, the
spectral ordinate is, when not conditioned to magnitude, time-dependent. With these as-
sumptions, a lognormal distribution is obtained for the inter-arrival times, with the ex-
pected value and the standard deviation conditioned on t ⱖ t0 (time elapsed since the last
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 525

Figure 5. Comparison between UH spectra at three locations, computed by using the

CRISIS2003 and FRISK88M programs.

event). Furthermore, the seismic moment M0 = kD = kavt is assumed to be proportional

to the slip at the fault (D = avt, where v is the convergence rate and a the slip fraction
that converted into seismic energy), through a factor k that depends on rock stiffness µ
and on the rupture area A of the fault of interest.
CRISIS2003 subdivides the SSZs into triangular cells, and treats each cell as a point
when the distance is defined as hypocentral, and as an extended circular fault with area
depending on magnitude when either the rupture distance or the Joyner—Boore distance
are chosen (as in the Boore and Atkinson attenuation relations). The program allows ei-
ther to choose between two built-in correlations between magnitude and fault area or to
adopt others. Herein, the correlation of Wells and Coppersmith (1994) has been chosen.
For further details on the theoretical bases of CRISIS2003, now updated with a 2007
version, refer to Ordaz et al. (1991).
An independent check on the results of the calculations performed by CRISIS2003
was carried out through the FRISK88M program (Risk Engineering Inc. 2006), widely
used in the USA, which also performs PSHA based on the Esteva-Cornell approach and,
in addition, handles epistemic uncertainty in the inputs through a logic tree methodol-
ogy, see e.g., Abrahamson (2000). A comparison of UH spectra calculated by
CRISIS2003 and FRISK88M is illustrated in Figure 5 for the previous representative
locations (but more cities have been tested, with similar results), using the same input.
The agreement among the spectra is in general quite good. However, since FRISK88M
does not allow analysis for multiple sites or for multiple spectral ordinates in the same
run, it was not further considered in this study.

HAZARD MAPS AND UNIFORM HAZARD (UH) SPECTRA

The results of the probabilistic analyses for the 5% damped horizontal DRS have
been represented as seismic hazard maps (computed on a grid with 0.05° spacing) on
exposed bedrock (ground type A), for T = 2, 5 and 10 s for the exceedance probabilities
of 0.05, 0.10 and 0.50 in 50 years (corresponding respectively to the return periods of
975 yr, 475 yr and 72 yr), and for the 15.9-, 50- and 84.1 percentile computed from the
logic tree.
526 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

Figure 6 shows the DRS map for T = 10 s, at the 50-percentile level, at the return
periods of 72, 475 an 975 yr. (top panel) and the maps for T = 5 s and 2 s, at the three
percentile levels (16-, 50- and 84 percentiles), at the 475 yr return period computed by
the logic tree in Figure 4 (central and bottom panel, respectively). The maps at 5 s and
2 s indicate that the influence of the uncertainties is limited because of the small number
of branches included in the logic tree in question.
After making due allowance for the well known circumstance that the shape of the
ground motion hazard contours is strongly influenced by the geometry of the SSZs (no
“soft” boundaries were used), a few comments on the maps are in order, and will be
better appreciated if the Mmax distribution in the various SSZs in Figure 1 is held in
sight. First, in Northern Italy (including the active Friuli region to the NE, where Mw 6.5
have occurred in recent times) and in a sizable portion of Central Italy and Southern
Italy, the spectral displacement at any period does not exceed the moderate level of
10– 12 cm, even at return periods as large as 1000 years, and is actually half of that or
less throughout most of such region. Only in limited zones of Central and Southern Italy,
where maximum magnitudes higher than 7 are expected, and for the longer recurrence
periods, does the spectral demand reach or exceed 20 cm on hard ground. It may be
interesting to recall that recent studies stemming from the S5 project indicate that, for a
return period of 475 yr., reinforced concrete buildings properly designed for non-
seismic loads can withstand an earthquake spectral demand of 3.5 cm largely without
damage and masonry buildings can withstand a spectral demand of 0.75 cm (Pinho et al.
2007). A second comment is that uncertainties reflected in the branches of the logic tree
in Figure 4 have a moderate but perceivable impact on the hazard estimates: for instance,
the maps of DRS ordinate of 5 s indicate that in the highest hazard areas in Central Italy
the spectral ordinate increase from the 16- to the 84-percentile level is roughly 50%.
Some further comments are postponed to the discussion section.
As a further output, UH DRS at 5% damping have been computed for all of the “co-
muni” (the smallest local administrations) in Italy for three return periods (72, 475 and
975 yr.) and for 16- 50- and 84 percentile levels. The logic tree used contains in this
case only one set of attenuation relations. Figure 7 shows average hard ground UH spec-
tra (with ±1␴ dispersion bands) at 5% damping for different groups of locations, iden-
tified by symbols on the map at the centre. In Northern Italy, where the maximum mag-
nitude of most SSZs is between 6.14 and 6.37 (see Figure 1), the fairly constant long
period branch in the UH spectra typically begins at a period between 1 and 3 s at loca-
tions inside the SSZs (e.g., Piedmont, Friuli and Tuscany). This would seem to support a
simplified bilinear representation of the spectra where the ordinate of the long period
branch can conveniently be taken equal to D10. With increasing distance from the SSZs,
e.g., as in most of Lombardy (the Milan region), the onset of the constant spectral
branch occurs at longer periods (typically between 3 s and 4.5 s) and a roughly tri-linear
approximation would seem to do a better job. Moving towards Southern Italy, the maxi-
mum magnitudes increase and this leads to a change in spectral shapes. Inside the SSZs
(as in Campania, east of Naples, and in the Calabrian Arc) the trilinear representation
appears more appropriate, while outside (e.g., as in Apulia and Sicily) a bilinear approxi-
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 527

Figure 6. Seismic hazard maps for Italy, depicting displacement response spectrum (DRS) or-
dinates at 0.05 damping on hard ground, in cm. Top row: DRS at 10 s (D10) and return periods
of 72 yr. (left), 475 yr. (center) and 975 yr. (right). Central and bottom rows: DRS at 5 s (D5)
period and 2 s (D2), respectively, for 475 yr. return period (median values at center, 16- and
84-percentiles at left and right). The layout of the SSZs is shown on each map.
528 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

Figure 7. At center, map of values of corner period TD, derived from Equation 4 for a return
period of 475 yr. In surrounding panels, plots of samples of 5% damped UH displacement
spectra (mean± 1␴ bands) at several groups of locations (indicated by bunches of circular sym-
bols on the map) in Italy. The region and number of spectra used in the sample is indicated in
each panel. Red bilinear curves in spectral plots were obtained as eye-fittings to the mean UH
DRS of each group, shown by a solid black curve, with shaded stripe representing the ±1␴
dispersion band. TD values determined from such fits (displayed on each panel) are shown by
the color fillings of circle symbols, so that they can be directly compared with the underlying
map values on same color scale.

mation (but with the constant branch typically beginning at about 7 s) seems quite sat-
isfactory.
One key goal for practical applications consists in defining a simplified DRS model
of seismic action. The results just illustrated suggest that the simplest (somewhat con-
servative in some cases) approximate shape for the DRS is bilinear, defined for ␨ = 5% by
the expressions

D10
0 ⬍ T 艋 TD DRS共T兲 = T 共3a兲
TD
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 529

T ⬎ TD DRS共T兲 = D10 . 共3b兲

Since TD is the corner period that separates the branch with constant displacement
from that with constant velocity of the spectrum, it can be simply estimated as

2␲D10
TD = 共4兲
max PSV
T

where the denominator is the maximum value of the pseudo-velocity response spectrum.
The approximation Equation 3a is strictly intended for the DRS and should not be used
to estimate spectral acceleration through the pseudo-spectral relationship, because it
would predict infinite accelerations as T → 0. One practical way to make the bilinear ap-
proximation suitable also for the design of short-period structures, would be to impose
that the total base shear should not exceed a prescribed limit, e.g., proportional to 2.5
times the maximum ground acceleration ag, if the P-␦ effects are neglected (Sullivan
2008). As an alternative, more realistic spectral acceleration ordinates could be obtained
by using for displacement an approximation with at least three spectral branches. In such
case, the linear branch would not extend all the way between 0 and TD, but it would
merge with the ordinate prescribed by the reference seismic code (e.g., Eurocode 8,
CEN 2004) at T = TC, that is the control period terminating the plateau of the accelera-
tion response spectrum defined in the code.
The value of maxPSV in Equation 4 can be calculated from the UH DRS at a specific
location through the pseudo-spectral relation. The distribution of TD values, calculated
through Equation 4 for ground type A and 475 yr return period, is displayed on the map
at center of Figure 7. TD was found to be essentially independent of the return period
when the latter exceeds few hundred years. Only for a return period of 72 yr. (0.50 ex-
ceedance probability in 50 yr.) the TD values near the edges of SSZs tend to significantly
exceed the 475 yr. levels.
In order to check the reliability of Equation 4 in estimating TD, the UH DRS of a
large sample of sites (about 700, shown by circle symbols in Figure 7) were analyzed by
representative groups and fitted by eye using a bilinear shape, indicated by the dashed
red curves in the spectral plots of the figure. The TD values obtained by such fitting were
identified and represented by filling the circle symbols in Figure 7 according to the same
color scale adopted for the TD map generated through Equation 4.
By comparing the colors of the symbol fillings with those of the underlying TD map,
a very good agreement can generally be noted, with the most relevant exception occur-
ring in a limited zone of Northern Sicily, where TD values as high as 6.0 s to 7.5 s are
found where the coarser estimation indicated 4.5 s to 6.0 s. Thus, Equation 4 can be
considered as a good estimator of the corner period TD, and Equation 3, together with
the TD map of Figure 7 provide the designer with the required simple representation of
the design seismic action in terms of displacement spectrum.
The results we found for Italy do not conform with the NEHRP (BSSC 2003) criteria
adopted in mapping the long period spectral corner in the U.S.; such criteria make the
530 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

corner period in question depend only on the modal magnitude governing hazard at the
site, and just increase with magnitude. No account seems to be taken of the distance
dependence of TD and of the presence of more than one high magnitude SSZ that may
contribute to hazard. As an example, according to the NEHRP (BSSC 2003) criteria,
sites in Piedmont where hazard is controlled by SSZs with Mmax not exceeding 6.14,
should exhibit a corner period of 4 s, in contrast with the spectral shapes just illustrated
(see topmost left panel in Figure 7, where the corner period is less than 2 s). The dis-
tance dependence of TD was first pointed out by Faccioli et al. (2004) who noted that
“for M ⬍ 6.5 there is a moderate increase of the corner period with distance, likely due
to the increasing influence of surface waves” and also, “spectral values tend to increase
up to a corner period that depends on distance, around 2 s to 3 s for near-field and
4 s to 5 s for intermediate distance, and decrease gently towards the peak ground
displacement.”

INFLUENCE OF SEISMIC SOURCE MODEL: HAZARD EVALUATION

IN THE SOUTHERN CALABRIAN ARC
Admittedly, the model ZS9 of extended SSZs does not embody the most advanced
knowledge on earthquake generating structures in Italy, and alternative representations
of the main seismogenic features in terms of active faults are available. We mainly refer
here to the database DISS3 for the description of seismically active faults (DISS3 Work-
ing Group 2007, Basili et al. 2008). In some regions the large uncertainties on the ex-
istence of the faults themselves are apt to render PSHA a highly problematic exercise;
however the uncertainties on key parameters controlling the fault geometry and their slip
rates have been parameterized and provide considerable help to the analyst. In DISS3, a
fault is a simplified and geo-referenced 3D representation of a fault plane (the so-called
GG source), identified through geological and geophysical investigations and sometimes
through historical earthquake data. Such faults are assumed to exhibit a “characteristic
earthquake” behavior with respect to rupture length/width and expected magnitude. In
addition to individual GG sources, DISS3 includes seismogenic areas (SA), drawn on
the basis of evidence and expert judgment, which are crustal volumes capable of gener-
ating M 艌 5.5 earthquakes. For such volumes, geographic layout, predominant faulting
mechanism, effective depth, and expected maximum magnitude are supplied. According
to the DISS3 authors’ suggestions, the seismic activity in the Seismogenic Areas may be
considered to follow a Poisson occurrence process (Valensise 2006).
To provide insight on the impact of such alternative source model of seismic sources
on hazard evaluation, DISS3 has been used and compared with the previous ZS9 model
in the Southern portion of the Calabrian Arc region of Southern Italy, including the Mes-
sina Strait, which has been the seat of destructive historical earthquakes, notably the M
7.1 1908 event.
To facilitate comparisons, no logic tree has been adopted in this application, and the
probabilistic analysis has been carried out solely with the “historical-statistical” criterion
for the completeness of the earthquake catalogue (Co4.2), and the previous attenuation
relations of Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008).
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 531

Figure 8. Seismic sources in the zone shown by the red dashed rectangle in Figure 1, from the
DISS3 database, and earthquake epicenters associated to them.

In the region at study the ZS9 model contains the three source zones ZS929, ZS930,
and ZS932, see Figure 1, the corresponding seismicity parameters were drawn from the
previously introduced source (Working Group CPTI, 2004b). On the other hand, Figure
8 shows the sources from DISS3 that were included in our analysis, and the earthquake
epicenters from the reference catalog (CPTI04) associated to each source area. The
larger rectangles (in gray) denote SAs, amenable to a Poissonian description, while the
smaller rectangles (black rectangles with oblique shading) define surface projections of
faults assumed to display a characteristic earthquake behavior. The events denoted by
stars in Figure 8 represent historical occurrences of the characteristic earthquakes asso-
ciated to the faults, or GG sources, according to DISS3.
The occurrence rates and Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SA in Figure 8
were obtained through the standard data pre-processing required by Cornell’s (1968)
method applied to the earthquakes shown. The hypotheses made on the SAs for this
analysis are summarized in Table 1.
 532
Table 1. Parameters of the DISS3 seismogenic area (SA) and faults (GG sources), shown in Figure 8, included in the analyses; TCE is the
estimated recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake (“CE” in the Table) of magnitude M

Poisson model Characteristic earthquake

Recurrence Slip rate

Source name ID Type model ␭ b MMIN MMAX TCE [years] [mm/yr] M

“Aspromonte—Peloritani” a SA Poisson 0.154 1.526 4.76 5.5

“Messina Strait” 1 GG CE 700–1500 0.93–2.0 7.0± 0.2
“Bagnara—Bovalino” b SA —
Aspromonte East 2 GG CE 700–3700 0.10–1.0 6.0± 0.2
Aspromonte Northeast 3 GG CE 700–2700 0.10–1.0 5.8± 0.2
Aspromonte Northwest 4 GG CE 700–1600 0.10–1.0 5.3± 0.2
Scilla offshore 5 GG CE 700–1600 0.10–1.0 5.3± 0.2
“Southern Calabria” c SA Poisson 0.055 1.068 4.76 6.0
“Gioia Tauro Plain” 6 GG CE 860–8600 0.10–1.0 6.6± 0.2
“Mesima Basin” 7 GG CE 1090–10900 0.10–1.0 6.6± 0.2
“Nicotera—Rocella” d SA —
“Nicotera—Rosarno” 8 GG CE 700–3700 0.10–1.0 6.0± 0.2
“Catanzaro Trough” e GG Poisson 0.045 0.581 4.76 7.1

OBS: For SA “b” and “d,” due to the insufficient number of events associated only the characteristic earthquake modelling on the respective faults has been con-
sidered. SA= seismogenic area, GG= geological and geophysical source, CE= characteristic earthquake.

E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 533

Figure 9. Maps of the 10 s spectral displacement ordinate (D10) calculated for 975 yr return
period, in the zone of Figure 8: (left) based on the ZS9 model (in green), (right) using the
DISS3 model of individual faults and Seimogenic Areas (red rectangles) with the shortest re-
currence intervals for faults (blue rectangles). The layout of individual faults and Seismogenic
Areas in latter map is as shown in Figure 8.

Concerning the faults proper (GG sources), characteristic earthquakes are seen in
Table 1 to be affected by large uncertainty in terms of slip rates and recurrence intervals.
Sensitivity analyses have shown that the variation of the slip rates can be neglected be-
cause of its low influence on the final results, hence average values have been used,
while the influence of the recurrence interval is relevant. Therefore, two analyses were
carried out in conjunction with the DISS3 fault sources: one using the shortest recur-
rence interval 共TCEគMIN兲 for all faults and one the largest interval 共TCEគMAX兲, so as to
quantify the bounds of the range of possible combinations of the recurrence intervals.
The results of the seismic hazard analysis performed with the two alternative repre-
sentation of the seismic sources are first compared in Figure 9 in the form of hazard
maps for the long period displacement spectral ordinate 共D10兲. The return period of
975 years was chosen for this purpose because, in addition to being significant for the
collapse prevention limit state verification of structures, it is somewhat larger than the
lower bound estimate of the recurrence interval (RI) of the characteristic earthquake on
the faults, see the TCE values in Table 1. As a matter of fact, if return periods ⰆTCE were
chosen, the modeling for the characteristic earthquakes (outlined in a previous section),
would result in much lower hazard estimates than for ZS9 with Poisson occurrence. The
strong influence of the seismogenic zonation is immediately apparent: the model con-
taining individual faults (DISS3 in Figure 9) results in a sharply different distribution of
the D10 values, with a peak exceeding 40 cm associated to the characteristic earthquake
on the “Messina Strait” fault. In addition to the different location and level of the hazard
peaks, the substantially smaller amount of “smearing” produced by the DISS3 model
with respect to ZS9 is worth noting.
534 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

We have provided a new representation of seismic hazard for Italy, which uses the
horizontal displacement response spectral ordinates over a much broader range of vibra-
tion periods 共0.05 s to 20 s兲 than previously achieved. Such representation is designed
to meet the requirements of the Displacement Based Design approach for the earthquake
resistance of most structures. In addition, the complete Uniform Hazard, probabilistic
spectra, made available on hard ground at any site up to very long periods, enable the
structural engineer to use convenient approximations (e.g., in the form of bilinear spec-
tra) for design, independent of the acceleration response spectrum. These approxima-
tions facilitate the critical choice of the long period corner TD, beyond which the dis-
placement spectrum can approximately be regarded as constant over a broad range of
periods, before gradually descending, for all damping levels, to the peak ground dis-
placement.
The present results stem mostly from an Italian research project concluded in 2007,
named S5; this was carried out in parallel to another project (S1), that provided the haz-
ard zonation map and elastic acceleration spectra used in the current seismic norms in
Italy, associated to the traditional force based design approach. Projects S1 and S5 were
conducted within the same general research program, and for reasons of internal con-
sistency they shared some basic input elements such as the model of SSZs, and the ref-
erence earthquake catalogue; also the structure of the logic tree adopted was partly simi-
lar. A crucial element of difference was instead a new set of attenuation relations
expressly developed for S5 (Cauzzi and Faccioli 2008).
The present hazard maps show that over a large portion of Northern and Central Italy
the long period spectral displacement demand does not exceed 10– 12 cm at 475 yr re-
turn period; only in the most seismically active regions of the country (Southern Apen-
nines), where Mmax ⱖ 7, a demand of about 20 cm is reached. While the shape of the UH
spectra strongly depends on the combined influence of maximum magnitude of the SSZs
and of distance from them, a simple bilinear model of the displacement spectrum, with
the corner period given by Equation 4, appears to provide in most cases a useful ap-
proximation.
Comparing short and long period hazard maps, as proposed in Figure 10, seems
quite instructive, although the two maps portray different kinds of parameters, i.e., maxi-
mum ground acceleration 共ag兲 vs. spectral displacement 共D10兲.
Due to the dependence DRS⬀ 10␣M, with ␣ close to 1 for T ⬎ 5 s, the long period
map highlights most prominently the influence of the SSZs with the largest Mmax values.
On the other hand, ag scales as 10␣M with ␣ roughly around 0.3. Hence, in the ag map of
Figure 10 the highest hazard zones in the northeast (Friuli, bordering with Slovenia) and
in the South (Calabrian Arc) both reach a value close to 0.3g. In contrast to this, in the
long period DRS map the Calabrian Arc values are three times (or more) larger than in
Friuli. This suggests that building codes that anchor the whole design spectrum to a
single intensity value (say, ag for 475 yr. return period) can be committing a serious
mistake for the long period branch. Moreover, from what one sees in Figure 7, even the
practice of anchoring the spectral shape to ag and the spectral ordinate for T = 1 s could
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 535

Figure 10. Comparison of seismic hazard maps: (left) at short period, i. e. the maximum
ground acceleration 共PGA= ag兲 map adopted in current Italian Norms (NT2008) and, (right) the
long period spectral displacement (D10) map, for 0.10 exceedance probability in 50 years,
ground type A.
536 E. FACCIOLI AND M. VILLANI

Figure 11. Comparison among the elastic displacement response spectra of current Italian
building code (named “NT 2008”), the UH spectra from project S1 and UH spectra of present
study at three locations.

be seriously misleading since, as we see in the mentioned figure, there are many regions
with TD ⬎ 2.5 s. From these observations, one can correctly conclude that short- and
long-period hazard pictures can be vastly different, and consequently, both short- and
long-period anchors should be furnished by a building code. In this way the designer
would have a (hopefully) accurate description of the design ground motion both in am-
plitude and in shape that would be useful for both displacement and force design appli-
cations.
We also note that the quantification of the design displacement spectrum into the
10 s to 15 s period range (or beyond) should be considered in the light of the increasing
number of very tall buildings and great bridges being erected or designed in different
regions of the world. As an example, the fundamental (initial) vibration mode of the Burj
Dubai Tower, now in a stage of advanced construction (over 780 m high as of December
2008), has been calculated at 11.3 s (Baker et al. 2008), while the projected, one-span
suspension bridge across the Messina Strait, Italy, has a computed fundamental period
exceeding 30 s (Brancaleoni and Diana, 1993). We may also add that in practice the ac-
tual vibration periods of reinforced concrete structures are often underestimated by us-
ing values of effective (cracked) stiffness on the high side; the justification is that in
force based verification methods shorter vibration periods entail higher estimated forces.
This will bring the designer to believe to be on the conservative side, but in reality he
will underestimate displacements.
Finally, a comparison is displayed in Figure 11 among the present UH displacement
spectra, the spectra derived by applying the pseudo spectral relation to the UH accelera-
tion spectra provided by the current norms (NT 2008, limited to the interval 0 – 2 s), and
the simplified displacement spectra proposed in the same norms, modified from Euro-
code 8 Annex A (CEN 2004). The comparison refers to three sites with different seis-
micity levels. As already mentioned, the first two types of UH spectra mainly differ be-
cause of the different attenuation relations used in their derivation, but they are
essentially consistent in the limited 0 – 2 s range of periods. On the other hand, the full
SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING FOR ITALY IN TERMS OF BROADBAND DISPLACEMENT RESPONSE SPECTRA 537

displacement spectra of the norms (dash-dotted curves in Figure 11), anchored to the ag
values of the map in Figure 10, clearly underestimate the corner period and generally
tend to underestimate the long period spectral level.
In conclusion, although the displacement spectra for vertical motion and UH spectra
at damping levels different from 5% are not described herein (due to space limitations),
the present work is believed to provide a full quantification of the seismic hazard input
needed for displacement based design. Perhaps even more significant is that, in the case
of Italy, the picture of hazard in terms of displacement demand points to a significantly
different prioritization of resources for earthquake risk mitigation through the applica-
tion of seismic norms, with respect to the current situation.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work draws extensively from the results of the Italian seismological project S5
(“Definizione dell’input sismico sulla base degli spostamenti attesi”) of the 2006-07
DPC-INGV research programs; the project was coordinated by E. Faccioli and A. Rov-
elli. The authors are grateful to M. Ordaz, to J.J. Bommer and to D. Slejko for comments
that helped them to significantly improve the manuscript, and also to T. Sullivan for his
valuable suggestions.

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(Received 3 July 2008; accepted 9 March 2009兲