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TUGAS KELAS A
A simulation model for peak water flow from watersheads was tested by
comparing measured peak flow (cfs) from 10 storms with predictions of
peak flow obtained from the simulation model Qo and Qp are the observed
and predicted peak flows, respectively. Four independent variables were
recorded :
X1 = area of watershed (mi2),
X2 = average slope of watershed (in percent),
X3 = surface absorbency index (0 = complete absorbency, 100 = no
absorbency), and
X4 = peak intensity of raifall (in/hr) computed on half-hour time intervals
Qo Qp X1 X2 X3 X4
SOAL:
JAWABAN :
Y=ln(Qo/Qp) X1 X2 X3 X4
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
Y -.2560 .11502 10
X1 3.1190 3.08648 10
X2 7.5000 4.20978 10
X3 63.7000 7.55792 10
X4 1.2200 .63561 10
Correlations
Y X1 X2 X3 X4
Pearson Correlation Y 1.000 -.683 .274 .327 -.413
X1 -.683 1.000 -.132 -.771 -.290
X2 .274 -.132 1.000 -.339 .100
X3 .327 -.771 -.339 1.000 .332
X4 -.413 -.290 .100 .332 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) Y . .015 .221 .178 .118
X1 .015 . .358 .005 .208
X2 .221 .358 . .169 .392
X3 .178 .005 .169 . .174
X4 .118 .208 .392 .174 .
N Y 10 10 10 10 10
X1 10 10 10 10 10
X2 10 10 10 10 10
X3 10 10 10 10 10
X4 10 10 10 10 10
Variables Entered/Removeda
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 X4, X2, X1, X3b . Enter
a. Dependent Variable: Y
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Change Statistics
Adjusted R Std. Error of the R Square
Model R R Square Square Estimate Change F Change df1 df2 S
1 .964a .929 .872 .04119 .929 16.293 4 5
a. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X1, X3
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression .111 4 .028 16.293 .005b
Residual .008 5 .002
Total .119 9
a. Dependent Variable: Y
b. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X1, X3
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) .087 .312 .280 .791
X1 -.035 .009 -.950 -3.790 .013
X2 .005 .005 .173 .992 .367
X3 -.002 .004 -.126 -.457 .667
X4 -.120 .024 -.664 -5.043 .004
a. Dependent Variable: Y
I. Cara EXEL
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.96371443
R Square 0.928745502
Adjusted R Square 0.871741904
Standard Error 0.041191183
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 0.110577 0.027644 16.29275 0.004502
Residual 5 0.008484 0.001697
Total 9 0.11906
dari tabel di atas diperoleh informasi bahwa taksiran nilai parameter dari
regresi linier berganda dengan hubungan X mempengaruhi Y adalah :
Arti Persamaan Regresi :
a) βo = 0,0873. Nilai konstanta ini menunjukkan bahwa apabila tidak ada
variabel Luas DAS(X1), Rata-rata kemiringan DAS (X2), Indeks
Permukaan Serap (X3) dan Puncak Intensitas dari curah hujan (X4),
maka puncak arus air pada DAS (Y) akan sebesar adalah 0.0873.
Dalam arti kata puncak arus air pada DAS meningkat sebesar 0,0873
sebelum atau tanpa adanya variabel Luas DAS, Rata-rata kemiringan
DAS, Indeks Permukaan Serap dan Puncak Intensitas dari curah
hujan (X1, X2, X3 dan X4 = 0).
b) β1 = -0,0354. Koefisien regresi X1 diperoleh sebesar -0,0354.
Koefisien regresi ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh negatif
(berlawanan arah) antara Variabel X1 terhadap Variabel Y. Artinya
apabila Luas DAS naik sebesar 1 mi2 dan Rata-rata kemiringan DAS
(X2), Indeks Permukaan Serap (X3) dan Puncak Intensitas dari curah
hujan (X4) masing-masing tetap, maka puncak arus air pada DAS (Y)
akan turun sebesar 0,0354.
c) β2 = 0,0047. Koefisien regresi X2 diperoleh sebesar 0,0047. Koefisien
regresi ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif (searah)
antara Variabel X2 terhadap Variabel Y. Artinya jika Rata-rata
SOAL:
b) Further consideration of the problem suggested that the
discrepancy between observed and predicted peak flow Y might
go to zero as the values of the four independent variables
approach zero. Redefine the regression problem to eliminate the
intercept (force βo=0), and estimate the regression equation.
Metode EXEL
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99442
R Square 0.988871
Adjusted R Square
0.816639
Standard Error
0.037896
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 0.7656 0.1914 133.2787 2.89E-05
Residual 6 0.008617 0.001436
Total 10 0.774216
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
X1 -0.03304 0.003799 -8.69768 0.000128 -0.04234 -0.02374 -0.04234 -0.02374
X2 0.005752 0.002802 2.052397 0.085956 -0.00111 0.012609 -0.00111 0.012609
X3 -0.00075 0.000548 -1.37208 0.219124 -0.00209 0.000589 -0.00209 0.000589
X4 -0.12153 0.021381 -5.68405 0.001279 -0.17385 -0.06921 -0.17385 -0.06921
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
Y = dependent .0000 .00000 10
X1= area of watershed (m2) 3.1190 3.08648 10
X2 = average slope of 7.5000 4.20978 10
watershed (%)
X3= Surface indeks 63.7000 7.55792 10
X4= Peak Intensity of rainfall 1.2200 .63561 10
(in/hr)
Correlations
X2 =
averag
e slope
X1= area of of X3= X4= Peak
Y= watershed watersh Surface Intensity of
dependent (m2) ed (%) indeks rainfall (in/hr)
Pearson Correlation Y = dependent 1.000 . . . .
X1= area of watershed (m2) . 1.000 -.132 -.771 -.290
X2 = average slope of . -.132 1.000 -.339 .100
watershed (%)
X3= Surface indeks . -.771 -.339 1.000 .332
X4= Peak Intensity of rainfall . -.290 .100 .332 1.000
(in/hr)
Sig. (1-tailed) Y = dependent . .000 .000 .000 .000
X1= area of watershed (m2) .000 . .358 .005 .208
X2 = average slope of .000 .358 . .169 .392
watershed (%)
X3= Surface indeks .000 .005 .169 . .174
X4= Peak Intensity of rainfall .000 .208 .392 .174 .
(in/hr)
N Y = dependent 10 10 10 10 10
X1= area of watershed (m2) 10 10 10 10 10
X2 = average slope of 10 10 10 10 10
watershed (%)
Variables Entered/Removeda
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 X4, X2, X1, X3b . Enter
a. Dependent Variable: Y
b. All requested variables entered.
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression .111 4 .028 16.293 .005b
Residual .008 5 .002
Total .119 9
a. Dependent Variable: Y
b. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X1, X3
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) .087 .312 .280 .791
X1 -.035 .009 -.950 -3.790 .013
X2 .005 .005 .173 .992 .367
X3 -.002 .004 -.126 -.457 .667
X4 -.120 .024 -.664 -5.043 .004
R2 = 1,00
Arti Persamaan regresi berganda :
a) βo = 0. Nilai konstanta ini menunjukkan bahwa apabila tidak ada
variabel Luas DAS(X1), Rata-rata kemiringan DAS (X2), Indeks
Permukaan Serap (X3) dan Puncak Intensitas dari curah hujan (X4),
maka puncak arus air pada DAS (Y) akan sebesar adalah 0.0873.
Dalam arti kata puncak arus air pada DAS meningkat sebesar 0,0873
sebelum atau tanpa adanya variabel Luas DAS, Rata-rata kemiringan
DAS, Indeks Permukaan Serap dan Puncak Intensitas dari curah
hujan (X1, X2, X3 dan X4 = 0).
SOAL:
c) Rerun the regression (without the intercept) using only X1 and X4;
that is, omit X2 and X3 from the model. Do the regression
coefficients for X1 and X4 change? Explain why they do or do not
change
JAWABAN :
Dengan EXEL
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99021
R Square 0.980516
Adjusted R Square 0.85308
Standard Error 0.043424
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 0.759131 0.379566 201.2924 6.53E-07
Residual 8 0.015085 0.001886
Total 10 0.774216
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
X1 -0.03318 0.003892 -8.5248 2.76E-05 -0.04216 -0.02421 -0.04216 -0.02421
X4 -0.12427 0.012236 -10.1563 7.56E-06 -0.15249 -0.09606 -0.15249 -0.09606
Model regresi :
Correlations
Y X1 X2 X3 X4
Pearson Correlation Y 1.000 -.683 .274 .327 -.413
X1 -.683 1.000 -.132 -.771 -.290
X2 .274 -.132 1.000 -.339 .100
X3 .327 -.771 -.339 1.000 .332
X4 -.413 -.290 .100 .332 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) Y . .015 .221 .178 .118
X1 .015 . .358 .005 .208
X2 .221 .358 . .169 .392
X3 .178 .005 .169 . .174
X4 .118 .208 .392 .174 .
N Y 10 10 10 10 10
X1 10 10 10 10 10
X2 10 10 10 10 10
X3 10 10 10 10 10
X4 10 10 10 10 10
Correlations
Y X1 X2 X3 X4
Pearson Correlation Y 1.000 -.683 .274 .327 -.413
X1 -.683 1.000 -.132 -.771 -.290
X2 .274 -.132 1.000 -.339 .100
X3 .327 -.771 -.339 1.000 .332
X4 -.413 -.290 .100 .332 1.000
Sig. (1-tailed) Y . .015 .221 .178 .118
X1 .015 . .358 .005 .208
X2 .221 .358 . .169 .392
X3 .178 .005 .169 . .174
X4 .118 .208 .392 .174 .
N Y 10 10 10 10 10
X1 10 10 10 10 10
X2 10 10 10 10 10
X3 10 10 10 10 10
X4 10 10 10 10 10
Variables Entered/Removeda
Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 X4, X2, X1, X3b . Enter
a. Dependent Variable: Y
b. All requested variables entered.
Model Summary
Change Statistics
Adjusted R Std. Error of the R Square
Model R R Square Square Estimate Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F
1 .964a .929 .872 .04119 .929 16.293 4 5
a. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X1, X3
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression .111 4 .028 16.293 .005b
Residual .008 5 .002
Total .119 9
a. Dependent Variable: Y
b. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X1, X3
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) .087 .312 .280 .791
X1 -.035 .009 -.950 -3.790 .013
X2 .005 .005 .173 .992 .367
X3 -.002 .004 -.126 -.457 .667
X4 -.120 .024 -.664 -5.043 .004
a. Dependent Variable: Y = 0.087-0.35X1-120X4
1. JIka X2 dan X3 dihilangkan maka secara simultan memiliki pengaruh yang
lebih besar lebih kuat
2. Korelasi Variabel X1 dan X4 lebih kuat karena nilainya minus berbanding
terbalik dengan Y
3.
SOAL:
d) Describe the change in the standart errors of the estimated
regression coefficients as the intercept was dropped (Part (a)
versus Part (b) and as X2 and X3 were dropped from model (Part
(b) versus Part (c)
JAWABAN :
Standard error atau kesalahan buku (SE) adalah angka yang
digunakan untuk mengukur ketetapan suatu penduga atau mengukur
jumlah variasi titik-titik observasi di atas dan di bawah regresi populasi.
Pada model regresi pada bagian a Vs bagian b menggambarkan
terjadi penyimpangan atau sebaran data dari nilai rata – rata hitungnya
dan berada disekitar garis intersep (βo=0,087) sebesar SE±0.004
sedangankan intersep (βo=0) SE±0.037 berarti tepat berada di garis
intersep. Demikian pula yang terjadi pada bagian b Vs bagian c, dimana
bagian c (βo=0) dengan SE±0.043.
Terjadi perubahan intersep maka penyimpangan atau fluktuasi Standard
error (SE) juga berubah, pada kasus ini perubahan antara bagian a dan
bagian c cenderung kecil karena kontribusi variabel X2 dab X3
mempunyai korelasi yang tidak signifikan mempengaruhi Standard error
(SE) maupun Standard deviasi (SD) dari data yang diplotkan, hal lain yang
ditimbulkan adalah korelasi (R) sebelum (0.964 ) dan sesudah (0.990)
terhadap variabel X2 dan X3 yang dieliminasi tidak menunjukkan
perubahan signifikan.
D. The Changes of Standard Errors of the Regression :
A vs B
STANDAR ERROR
VARIABEL
MODEL [ MODEL B
X1 0.00934 0.003798
X2 0.00476 0.002803
X3 0.00419 0.000549
X4 0.02381 0.021381
B vs C
STANDAR ERROR
VARIABEL
MODEL B MODEL C
X1 0.0037987 0.0038924
X2 0.0028025 0
X3 0.0005484 0
X4 0.0213807 0.0122361