COMMODITY RESEARCH

COMMODITY INSIGHT
METALS & ENERGY
October 31, 2019

Market Overview
Commodities in international market trade mixed as Fed cuts rate but signals pause on future cuts
Currencies Close Previous Close % Change
Dollar Index 97.65 97.69 -0.05% Most Asian indices trade sideways to higher tracking overnight gains in US indices; US Dollar trades 0.3%
Euro/USD 1.115 1.111 0.35% lower today following volatile movement yesterday
GBP/USD 1.2902 1.2862 0.31% Optimism due to Fed rate cut offset by growth worries, US-China trade deal uncertainty and political risk
USD/YEN 108.85 108.89 -0.04% in Britain
USD/INR 70.895 70.8412 0.08%
China’s Official Mfg. PMI slid to 49.3 in October from September’s 49.8; contracting for sixth straight month;
Source : Bloomberg
Non –Mfg. PMI eased to 52.8, weakest since Feb 2016

Chile canceled next month’s APEC meeting where the US and China intended to sign a partial trade pact
Global Indices Close Previous Close % Change - Bloomberg
DJIA 27,186.69 27,071.42 0.43% FOMC decision- The US central bank cut its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5-1.75% in line with market
FTSE 100 7330.78 7306.26 0.34% expectations. Fed altered language in its statement dropping its pledge to “act as appropriate to sustain
Nikkei 22843.12 22974.13 -0.57% the expansion. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference that policy is in a
Nifty 50 11844.1 11786.85 0.49% “good place” and that the current stance is likely to remain appropriate. Fed stance indicate that the central
Shanghai 2939.32 2954.18 -0.50% bank wants to avoid more rate cuts unless economic outlook worsens significantly. However, global growth
Source : Bloomberg
concerns, US-China trade uncertainty and loose monetary policy stance of other central banks may keep
pressure on the central bank to act again. The US dollar index and US bond yield have weakened post
Fed decision indicating lack of conviction that Fed may not act again. The US dollar index slumped to 1-
week low of 97.303 while US 10-year bond yield fell from 1.84% to 1.78%.

Data and Events due today

Date IST Currency Data Forecast Previous Importance

31-Oct 15:30 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.70% 0.90% Low
EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.10% 0.20% Low
EUR Unemployment Rate 7.40% 7.40% Low
18:00 USD Personal Spending m/m 0.30% 0.10% Medium
USD Personal Income m/m 0.30% 0.40% Medium
USD Unemployment Claims 215K 212K Low
19:15 USD Chicago PMI 48 47.1 Medium
20:00 USD Natural Gas Storage 86B 87B Medium
Source: Bloomberg; KS Commodity Research

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 1

 COMMODITY INSIGHT BULLION Madhavi Mehta
madhavi.mehta@kotak.com; 022 6621 6230
COMEX gold trades marginally higher near $1500/oz after a 0.4% gain yesterday. Gold COMEX as on 30-Oct-19
has shown little reaction to Fed decision but has benefitted from weakness in US dollar and Gold (US dollar per troy ounce)
bond yield. Fed cut its interest rate for the third consecutive time to support the economy
Contract High Low Close Change % Change
and indicated that it may keep policy steady unless economic outlook worsens significantly.
Dec 19 1499.3 1483.1 1496.7 6.0 0.4%
Fed’s rate cut was in line with expectations while some market players had also anticipated
Feb 20 1506.0 1490.3 1503.8 6.1 0.4%
pause in future rate cuts. While Fed’s stance is negative for gold, it was factored in to some
Silver (US dollar per troy ounce)
extent. Meanwhile, global growth concerns, US-China trade conflict and loose monetary
policy stance may keep pressure on Fed to act again. The US dollar index slumped to 1- Dec 19 17.97 17.59 17.87 0.04 0.2%
week low of 97.303 post Fed decision while US 10-year bond yield retreated from mid-Sept. Mar 20 18.12 17.74 18.02 0.04 0.2%
highs. Gold also gained support from doubts about US-China trade deal as Chile canceled MCX as on 30-Oct-19
a summit where the US and China were expected to sign a preliminary trade accord, as Gold (Rupees per 10 grams)
reported by Bloomberg. Brexit uncertainty is also high with deadline extension and fresh Dec 19 38129 37894 38088 172.0 0.5%
elections in December. Concerns about health of Chinese economy rose amid Feb 20 38300 38100 38285 150.0 0.4%
disappointing manufacturing and services PMI data. However, weighing on price is weaker Silver (Rupees per kilogram)
investor interest and consumer demand. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 1.758 tonnes Dec 19 46384 45850 46119 130.0 0.3%
to 915.553 tonnes. As per China Gold Association, gold consumption in China fell 9.58% Mar 20 47200 46764 46889 63.0 0.1%
year-on-year to 768.31 tonnes in the first nine months of 2019. Gold continues to trade in
Source: MCX; Bloom berg
a broad range near $1500/oz as market players counter Fed’s rate cut pause against global
Volume and OI Analysis (MCX)
growth worries and uncertainty about US-China trade deal and Brexit. We may see choppy
Gold Vol (lots) Change (%) OI (lots) Change (%)
trade continuing however buying may emerge at lower levels on global growth worries.
Dec 19 10367 -4.4 Dec 19 16084 0.3
COMEX Silver trades marginally higher near $17.9/oz after a 0.2% gain yesterday. Silver Feb 20 338 -6.4 Feb 20 4841 2.7
along with gold has edged up on back of weakness in US dollar index post Fed decision. Silver
Market players have downplayed Fed’s pause in rate cuts amid global economic Dec 19 23661 -9.6 Dec 19 9140 -1.1
uncertainty. However, weighing on silver and industrial metals is disappointing Chinese Mar 20 368 -29.0 Mar 20 1250 5.8
economic data. ETF investors continued to remain on sidelines awaiting clear cues. Silver Source: MCX; Bloom berg
holdings with iShares ETF were unchanged 11711.25 tonnes. The spot gold silver ratio
MCX Spread Matrix (Regular 1 KG)
rose from 83.5 to 83.7 yesterday as gold rose more. The ratio has been on a downward
Gold Dec Feb Apr Jun
path for last few days and could see extended decline if risk sentiment improves. Correction
Dec 0 -197 -381 -581
in ratio indicates that silver may outperform gold. Silver along with gold may witness choppy
trade as market players assess central bank monetary policy and US-China trade talks but Feb -184 -384

general bias may be on the upside owing to weaker US dollar. Apr -200
Jun 0
European and US economic data, trade related, Brexit related and geopolitical Source: MCX; KS Com m odity Res earch
development and market reaction to central bank monetary policies may affect US dollar MCX Spread Matrix (Regular 30 KG)
as well as general risk sentiment and thereby bullion prices.
Silver Dec Mar May Jul
Kindly refer Pivot table below for daily support resistance of Bullion contracts. Dec 0 -770 -1286 -1785
Mar -516 -1015
May -499
Jul 0
Source: MCX; KS Com m odity Res earch

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 2

 Priyanka Jhaveri
COMMODITY INSIGHT BASE METALS priyanka.jhaveri@kotak.com; 022 6621 6232

October 30, 2019 Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower today after most ended on a lower note
yesterday. Weighing on the prices is growth worries especially from top consumer China along
MCX India (Rs/kg)
with growing fears of delay in partial trade deal between US-China.
Commodity Contract High Low Close Change % Change
Aluminium 29-Nov-19 132.80 131.95 132.35 0.25 0.19% In China, data today showed that factory activity contracted for sixth straight month while
services sector activity grew at slowest pace since February 2016; fanning worries of
Copper 29-Nov-19 444.80 442.60 443.80 0.30 0.07%
deepening slowdown. Official Mfg. PMI fell to 49.3 in October from September’s 49.8 while
Lead 29-Nov-19 160.05 157.50 157.75 -2.30 -1.44% Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.8 from September’s 53.7. Meanwhile on trade front,
Nickel 29-Nov-19 1212.00 1199.20 1207.10 3.60 0.30% hopes of deal have been dampened after US official earlier in the week warned that the trade
Zinc 29-Nov-19 191.10 188.60 189.05 -1.55 -0.81% agreement between US and China might not be completed in time for signing in Chile next
Source - Bloomberg month as expected. Furthermore, cancellation of APEC meeting by Chile where US and China
intended to sign a partial trade pact have further added to trade deal uncertainty.
LME (USD/tonne)
Commodity Contract High Low Close Change % Change The downside may however be capped by weakness in US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index
Aluminium 3 Month 1763.50 1745.00 1760.00 6.00 0.34% trades with a weaker bias today tracking Fed’s decision to cut its interest rate for third
Copper 3 Month 5933.00 5863.00 5908.00 -19.50 -0.33%
consecutive time even as the central bank indicated pause on future rate cuts.
Lead 3 Month 2256.50 2189.50 2208.00 -57.00 -2.52% On fundamental front, Copper prices may come under pressure tracking sharp jump in stocks
Nickel 3 Month 16920.00 16705.00 16780.00 -50.00 -0.30% at LME warehouses yesterday along with reports of surplus next year. According to latest
Zinc 3 Month 2552.50 2507.00 2529.00 -15.00 -0.59% forecast by ICSG, global refined copper market could move into surplus of 281,000 tonnes in
2020 from this year’s estimated deficit of 320,000 tonnes. The downside may however be
Source - Bloomberg
capped amid worries over supply disruption from Chile due to ongoing unrest. In other metals,
LME Inventories Total Nickel prices may come under pressure amid demand worries from China and Reuters report
Opening Closing Net On Cancel C/W that Indonesia could resume nickel ore exports in one to two weeks once an investigation into
Commodity Stocks Stocks Change Warrnats Warrants Ratio* violations of export rules is completed. The downside may however be capped amid falling
Aluminium 961650 961375 -275 788775 172600 17.95% stocks at LME and signs of tightness in physical market. Nickel stocks at LME fell by 1254
Copper 250750 270325 19575 173000 97325 36.00% tonnes yesterday and at 67908 tonnes stood at lowest level since December 2008. In case of
Lead 69800 70100 300 66375 3725 5.31%
Zinc the downside may be capped amid falling stockpiles at both LME and SHFE warehouses
and signs of tightness in physical market while Lead prices may seek support from tightness
Nickel 69162 67908 -1254 30576 37332 54.97%
in physical market as is evident from backwardation between LME Cash to three month prices.
Zinc 57050 56025 -1025 32950 23075 41.19% Lastly, the downside in Aluminium may be capped amid recent retreat in stocks at LME and
Source - Bloomberg *C/W- Cancelled Warrants dwindling stockpiles at SHFE warehouses along with decline in production especially from
LME Cash to 3 month spread (USD/tonne) China and narrowing contango between LME Cash to three month signaling tightness in
Commodity Close PCP Change physical market. According to Reuters report, Aluminum Corp of China reported a 10.4% year-
on-year fall in Aluminium production for the July-September period to 950,000 tonnes and said
Aluminium -3.50 -2.50 -1.00
sales fell 13.8% to 940,000 tonnes, indicating lacklustre demand in top consumer China.
Copper -25.75 -21.25 -4.50
Lead 18.00 21.25 -3.25 Base metal may witness choppy trade today amid mixed cues however overall bias for most
metals for the day may be weak amid growth worries. For the day focus may be on market
Nickel 40.00 35.00 5.00
reaction to Fed cut along with macro-economic data from Euro Zone and US and its impact on
Zinc 40.00 43.00 -3.00 US Dollar. Also focus may continue to be on development related Brexit and US-China trade
Source - Bloomberg war and its impact on global sentiments. Kindly refer Pivot table below for daily support
resistance levels.

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 3

 Madhavi Mehta
COMMODITY INSIGHT ENERGY madhavi.mehta@kotak.com; 022 6621 6230

Crude Oil- NYMEX crude trades mixed near $55 per barrel after a 0.9% decline yesterday. CRUDE OIL
Crude oil is rangebound amid mixed cues. US EIA weekly report noted an unexpected 5.702 MCX Crude Oil (Rs/barrel) as on 30-Oct
million barrels increase in US crude oil stocks and a fourth weekly rise in crude stocks at Contract High Low Close Change % Change
Cushing, the delivery terminal for NYMEX crude futures. EIA however also noted a decline
Nov-19 3957 3870 3880 -80 -2.0
in gasoline and distillate stocks. Support from better than US economic data was countered
by disappointing Chinese economic data. US Q3 GDP and ADP jobs report released Dec-19 3978 3896 3903 -79 -2.0
yesterday was better than expectations. China’s manufacturing and services PMI fell more NSE Brent Crude Oil (Rs/barrel)
than expectations. Amid other factors, Fed cut its interest rate for the third consecutive time Oct-19 4361 4350 4350 -30 -0.7
to support the economy but also signaled a pause in future rate cuts. Doubts over US-China NYMEX WTI Crude Oil (USD/barrel) as on 30-Oct
trade deal rose as Chile canceled a summit where the US and China were expected to sign Dec-19 55.73 54.42 55.06 -0.9
-0.48
a preliminary trade accord. However, supporting crude oil price is supply disruption in US
Jan-20 55.88 54.58 55.10 -0.58 -1.0
and expectations that OPEC may make deeper production cuts. As per Bloomberg reports,
Keystone pipeline that transports crude from Canada’s Alberta region to American refineries ICE Brent Crude Oil (USD/barrel)
has been shut after an oil spill in northwestern North Dakota. The shutdown could affect Dec-19 61.93 60.45 60.61 -0.98 -1.6
Canadian supply to US however it is likely to be temporary in nature. Saudi Arabia and Jan-20 61.55 60.02 60.24 -0.99 -1.6
OPEC Secretary General have indicated that they could make deeper production cuts to NYMEX Heating Oil (USD cents/gallon)
keep market well balanced however Russia has stated that no change in production policy
Oct-19 196.05 190.60 191.36 -4.27 -2.2
has been discussed yet. Amid other news, Brazil’s president welcomed an informal
Nov-19 195.35 189.50 190.22 -4.37 -2.2
invitation from Saudi Arabia for his country to join OPEC and said he’d be eager to accept,
as reported by Bloomberg. If Brazil joins OPEC, it may become part of the production cut NYMEX Gasoline (USD cents /gallon)
deal which could help to reduce the supply overhang in the market. Crude may witness Oct-19 170.58 165.21 166.45 -2.12 -1.3
choppy trade amid mixed cues however sell on rise is recommended amid rise in US crude Nov-19 165.97 160.56 161.78 -2.38 -1.4
oil stocks and disappointing Chinese economic data. Spread (USD/barrel) Close Prev. % Change
Natural Gas- NYMEX natural gas trades higher near $2.7/mmBtu after a 2% gain ICE Brent- NYMEX WTI 5.55 6.05 -0.50
yesterday. Natural gas hit a high of $2.723/mmBtu in intraday trade yesterday, the highest NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack Spread 18.34 19.05 -0.71
level since March. Natural gas has surged to 6-month high as cold weather in US has Source: MCX;Bloomberg
increased heating demand. Early cold weather has also fueled expectations of higher NATURAL GAS
demand during winter season and this has forced speculators to cover their huge short bets.
MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu)
However, weighing on price is expectations of another bigger than average rise in gas
Contract High Low Close Change % Change
stocks. US EIA weekly report due today is expected to note an 86 Bcf rise in US natural
gas stocks as against 5-year average increase of 65 Bcf. A bigger than average rise in Nov-19 193.80 186.50 191.00 -0.60 -0.3
stocks will add to US supply and is negative for price. Also weighing on price is higher US Dec-19 200.80 194.00 198.30 0.00 0.0
gas production and choppiness in crude oil and UK gas price. Natural gas has rallied sharply NYMEX Natural Gas (USD/mmBtu)
in last few days and has breached the key $2.7/mmBtu levels opening up way for further Dec-19 2.723 2.616 2.691 0.052 2.0
gains. We may see choppy trade ahead of the inventory report and fresh upward
Jan-20 2.809 2.708 2.781 0.057 2.1
momentum may come only if stocks buildup is in line with or less than expectations.
Spread/Ratio Close Prev. % Change
Kindly refer Pivot table below for daily support resistance levels. WTI-Natgas Ratio 20.46 21.05 -0.59
MCX WTI-Natgas Ratio 20.31 20.67 -0.35
Source: MCX;Bloomberg

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 4

 COMMODITY INSIGHT TECHNICAL CHARTS

MCX Gold (Dec) Trading range- 37800-38300 MCX Crude (Nov) Trading range- 3830-3980

Source:- Bloomberg, KS Commodity Research Source:- Bloomberg, KS Commodity Research

MCX Zinc(Nov) Trading range-188-192 MCX Copper(Nov) Trading range- 442-447

y0
Source:- Bloomberg, KS Commodity Research Source:- Bloomberg, KS Commodity Research

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 5

 COMMODITY INSIGHT PIVOT POINTS

PIVOT ANALYSIS FOR MAJOR NON AGRI COMMODITIES

Breakout Breakout Breakdown Breakdown
Commodity S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Above Target Below Target

Spot Gold 1468.7 1475.0 1484.0 1490.4 1499.4 1505.7 1514.7 1504.1 1511.2 1487.2 1480.2
Precious Metals

MCX Gold Dec 37652 37773 37887 38008 38122 38243 38357 38217 38324 37959 37852
MCX Gold Mini Nov 37823 37950 38129 38256 38435 38562 38741 38537 38677 38201 38061
Spot Silver 17.30 17.45 17.65 17.80 18.00 18.20 18.40 18.05 18.25 17.65 17.50
MCX Silver Dec 45184 45517 45718 46051 46252 46585 46786 46413 46656 45825 45582
MCX Silver Mini Nov 45183 45514 45726 46057 46269 46600 46812 46444 46692 45846 45598
LME Copper 5814 5838 5884 5908 5954 5978 6024 5947 5979 5870 5837
MCX Copper Nov 440.1 441.4 442.3 443.6 444.5 445.8 446.7 445.0 446.0 442.6 441.6
LME Zinc 2470 2488 2515 2534 2561 2579 2606 2554 2575 2504 2483
Industrial Metals

MCX Zinc Nov 186.0 187.3 188.5 189.8 191.0 192.3 193.5 190.5 191.6 187.7 186.6
LME Lead 2132 2161 2199 2228 2266 2295 2333 2245 2276 2171 2140
MCX Lead Nov 154.8 156.2 157.4 158.7 159.9 161.3 162.5 159.2 160.3 156.4 155.2
LME Nickel 16468 16586 16683 16801 16898 17016 17113 16898 16996 16662 16564
MCX Nickel Nov 1184.7 1192.0 1197.5 1204.8 1210.3 1217.5 1223.1 1214.1 1220.0 1200.1 1194.2
LME Aluminium 1728 1737 1747 1755 1765 1774 1784 1770 1779 1750 1741
MCX Aluminium Nov 130.9 131.5 131.8 132.3 132.7 133.2 133.5 132.8 133.2 131.9 131.5
NYMEX Crude Oil 53.4 53.9 54.7 55.2 56.0 56.5 57.3 55.8 56.4 54.4 53.8
Energy

MCX Crude Oil Nov 3782 3826 3869 3913 3956 4000 4043 3928 3967 3832 3793
NYMEX Natural Gas 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.75 2.80 2.65 2.60
MCX Natural Gas Nov 179.5 183.0 186.8 190.3 194.1 197.6 201.4 195.0 198.5 187.0 183.5
Source - Bloomberg

Pivot: If the Price opens above the pivot, the day trend might be positive and if the price opens below pivot the day trend might be negative.
Supports/Resistances: During the normal course of trading,supports/resistances are important levels which may be used by traders to book profits if they
have any buy/sell position.
Breakout/Breakdown: Breakout and Breakdown levels are the extreme levels above which the direction might change.The direction changes to bullish above
the mentioned breakout and bearish if the price moves below the breakdown.
Breakout/ Breakdown Target: It is the price which might be achieved if it trades above or below the breakout or breakdown respectively.
*Note: Pivot,Suppport/Resistances, Breakout , Breakdown are generated as per statistical formulas.So these levels might differ from the levels
given by the technical analyst as the analyst use technical charts for givng trading levels.

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 6

 COMMODITY INSIGHT

RATING SCALE FOR DAILY REPORT

BUY - We expect the commodity to deliver 1% or more returns

SELL - We expect the commodity to deliver (-1%) or more returns

SIDEWAYS- We expect the commodity to trade in the range of (+/-)1%

NOTE - The recommendations are valid for one day from the date of issue of the report, subject to mentioned stop loss, if any

FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH TEAM

Ravindra Rao Madhavi Mehta Priyanka Jhaveri Mohit Vyas
Head of Research Bullion, Energy Base Metals Agri Complex
ravindra.rao@kotak.com madhavi.mehta@kotak.com priyanka.jhaveri@kotak.com vyas.mohit@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6234 +91 22 6621 6230 +91 22 6621 6232 +91 22 6621 6233

TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM

Ashok Kamarani Anup Sahu Anil Kukreja
ashok.kamarani@kotak.com anup.sahu@kotak.com anil.kukreja@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6215 +91 22 6621 6216 +91 22 6621 6217

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 7

 COMMODITY INSIGHT

Disclosure/Disclaimer
Kotak Securities Limited established in 1994, is a subsidiary of Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited. Kotak Securities is one of India's largest brokerage and distribution house.

Kotak Securities Limited is a corporate trading and clearing member of BSE Limited, National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (MSE), National Commodity and
Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and Multi Commodity Exchange(MCX). Our businesses include stock broking, services rendered in connection with distribution of primary market issues and financial products like
mutual funds and fixed deposits, depository services and Portfolio Management.

Kotak Securities Limited is also a depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL). Kotak Securities Limited is also registered with
Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority as Corporate Agent for Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life Insurance Limited and is also a Mutual Fund Advisor registered with Association of Mutual Funds in India
(AMFI). We are registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014.

We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in last five years. However, SEBI, Exchanges and Depositories
have conducted the routine inspection and based on their observations have issued advise/warning/deficiency letters or levied minor penalty on KSL for certain operational deviations. We have not been debarred from
doing business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.

We offer our research services to clients as well as our prospects.

This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document
may come are required to observe these restrictions.

This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any
security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of present and prospective clients of Kotak Securities Ltd.

We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Kotak Securities Limited, nor
any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of
the investments referred to in this material may rise or fall. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for every investor. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on fundamentals. The views provided herein
are general in nature and does not consider risk appetite or investment objective of particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. The Report does not constitute
a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Kotak Securities Limited does not provide any promise or assurance of favourable
view for a particular commodity in any manner. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and take professional advice before
investing.

Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Kotak
Securities Limited is not engaged in proprietary trade in commodities and the views mentioned in the report are not in any manner influenced by self-interest of Kotak Securities Limited or the individual Research
Analyst.

We and our affiliates/associates, officers, directors, and employees, Research Analyst (including relatives) worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof
mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker or act as advisor or have other potential/material conflict of
interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of Research Report or at the time of public appearance. The views provided herein are general in nature and
does not consider risk appetite or investment objective of particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. This should not be construed as invitation or solicitation to
do business with KSL. Kotak Securities Limited is also a Portfolio Manager. Portfolio Management Team (PMS) takes its independent investment decisions

The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the securities if any and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation
was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Kotak Securities' prior written consent. Details of Associates are available on website i.e. www.kotak.com

1.“Note that the research analysts contributing to the research report may not be registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA; and

2. Such research analysts may not be associated persons of Kotak Mahindra Inc. and therefore, may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst account

Any U.S. recipients of the research who wish to effect transactions in any security covered by the report should do so with or through Kotak Mahindra Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC) and (ii) any transactions in the securities
covered by the research by U.S. recipients must be effected only through Kotak Mahindra Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC) at 369 Lexington Avenue 28th Floor NY 10017 USA (Tel: +1 212-600-8850).

Kotak Securities Limited and its non US affiliates may, to the extent permissible under applicable laws, have acted on or used this research to the extent that it relates to non US issuers, prior to or immediately following
KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 8
its publication. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. This research report and
 COMMODITY INSIGHT
its respective contents do not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities or solicitation of any investments or investment services. Accordingly, any brokerage and investment services
including the products and services described are not available to or intended for Canadian persons or US persons.”

Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company: NA

We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company, if any in the past 12 months: NA

We or our associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company (ies) in the past 12 months: NA

We or our associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company, if any in the past 12 months: NA

We or our associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company, if any in the past 12 months:
NA.

We or our associates may have received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company if any or third party in connection with the research report: NA.

Our associates may have financial interest in the subject company(ies) if any: NA

Research Analyst or his/her relative's financial interest in the subject company (ies)/securities: No

Kotak Securities Limited has financial interest in the subject company (ies)/securities at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No

Our associates may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report.

Research Analyst or his/her relatives has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No

Kotak Securities Limited has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No

Subject Company, if any may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.: NA

Daily price movement of commodities is available on the following websites:

https://www.mcxindia.com/market-data/market-watch

https://ncdex.com/MarketData/LiveFuturesQuotes.aspx

https://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/commodity_der_stock_watch.htm

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/Commodity/commodity.html

Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051, Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430.
Website: www.kotak.com / www.kotaksecurities.com. Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097. Telephone No: 42856825. SEBI
Registration No: INZ000200137 (Member of NSE, BSE, MSE, MCX & NCDEX), AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research Analyst INH000000586. NSDL/CDSL: IN-DP-NSDL-23-97. Member Id: NSE-08081;
BSE-673; MSE-1024; MCX-56285; NCDEX-1262

Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Manoj Agarwal. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or Email: ks.compliance@kotak.com. In case you require any clarification or have any concern, kindly write to us at below email ids:

Level 1: For Trading related queries, contact our customer service at 'service.securities@kotak.com' and for demat account related queries contact us at ks.demat@kotak.com or call us on: Toll free numbers
18002099191 / 1860 266 9191

Level 2: If you do not receive a satisfactory response at Level 1 within 3 working days, you may write to us at ks.escalation@kotak.com or call us on 022-42858445 and if you feel you are still unheard write to our
customer service HOD at ks.servicehead@kotak.com or call us on 022-42858208.

Level 3: If you still have not received a satisfactory response at Level 2 within 3 working days, you may contact our Compliance Officer (Name: Manoj Agarwal) at ks.compliance@kotak.com or call on 91- (022) 4285
6825.

Level 4: If you have not received a satisfactory response at Level 3 within 7 working days, you may also approach Managing Director / CEO (Mr. Jaideep Hansraj) at ceo.ks@kotak.com or call on 91-(022) 4285 8301.

KS Commodity Insight Please see Disclosure/Disclaimer at the end of the report 9