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EVM - &monte-Carlo Sim - Based Proj Estimates
EVM - &monte-Carlo Sim - Based Proj Estimates
Try to change Actual Cost (Gx) and Status Complete (Hx) and check on the CPI, SPI, EAC, ETC.
As on Today that gives a picture of the changing characteristics of project behaviour
Does not illustrate critical or non critical activities
Disclaimer Notice. It is a guide only
70.00
60.00
Likely Cost Total Likely Time Likely costs
CPI = SPI = EAC = Total ETC = Balance 50.00
PV AC EV ev / ac ev / pv bac / cpi est.time/ spi eac - ac
7.00 8.00 8.00 1.00 1.14 65.00 10.50 57.00 40.00
18.00 18.00 16.00 0.89 0.89 73.13 13.50 55.13
23.00 20.00 18.00 0.90 0.78 72.22 15.33 52.22 30.00
27.00 32.00 30.00 0.94 1.11 69.33 10.80 37.33
35.00 44.00 39.60 0.90 1.13 72.22 10.61 28.22 20.00
39.00 49.00 42.35 0.86 1.09 75.21 11.05 26.21
51.00 49.00 42.35 0.86 0.83 75.21 14.45 26.21 10.00
62.00 49.00 42.35 0.86 0.68 75.21 17.57 26.21
0.00
65.00 49.00 42.35 0.86 0.65 75.21 18.42 26.21 1 2
Performance Forecasts
BAC
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PV AC EV
Planned Forecasts
Forecasts
Row 18
75.21
65
18.42
12
Disclaimer Notice: All data a samples and for guide purpose only
S R I K A N T H, K PMP
http://guruttam.com
Variances Trend
Variances
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
For Jan07 For Feb07 For Mar07 For Apr07
MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION B
Workpackage Activities Total
Project
Estimate A B C Estimate
Iterations Min 250 150 210 610
Max 275 180 225 680
1 252 272 266 790
2 261 257 252 770
2 260 255 262 777
3 257 264 255 776
3 272 267 252 790
4 264 257 257 778
4 253 264 252 769
5 250 253 270 773
5 273 259 272 804
6 269 259 256 783
6 269 272 257 798
7 274 272 266 813
7 250 259 256 765
8 273 265 272 810
9 267 264 252 783
10 272 273 250 795
11 262 265 256 784
12 259 265 266 790
13 261 259 269 789
14 266 265 272 803
15 270 275 271 815
16 261 259 267 786
17 259 251 266 776
18 262 273 256 791
19 274 256 256 786
20 273 268 266 807
21 265 267 272 804
22 267 273 266 806
23 259 250 262 771
24 251 260 260 771
25 271 262 266 799
26 274 259 272 805
27 262 273 254 789
28 265 265 267 797
29 270 264 253 787
30 270 252 270 792
31 259 266 260 785
32 252 252 262 765
33 259 256 271 786
34 259 251 271 781
35 268 273 267 807
36 269 253 265 787
37 272 275 254 801
38 269 255 255 779
39 267 267 251 785
40 270 251 261 782
41 269 259 260 788
42 270 266 264 800
43 254 275 265 794
44 263 265 252 780
RLO SIMULATION BASED PROJECT ESTIMATES
S R I K A N T H, K PMP
http://guruttam.com
Guide
Generate random values for each activity estimates (Here, D5:D54, E5:E54, F5:F54)
Add each series of random activity cost to arrive at total project estimate (G$)
Project estimate is average of these values (sum of G5:G54)
Check with estimate outcomes with other tools like PERT etc to minimize errors in estimates
Assumptions
Each activity estimates is not influenced by other acitivity
It is for educational purpose only and an illustration version
Iterations will vary based on the estimates to arrive at better skew or kurtosis, there by minimizing errors in estimates
BASED PROJECT ESTIMATES
http://guruttam.com
Comments (Cost/Time)
The stdev of the entire population takes into account ONLY 2 (min, max) values
Sample error finding for an error less than 2% is avg(totalmin,totalmax)/50
No. of iterations required based on ((3*S)/e)^2=(3*J3)/J4)^2
Expected project estimates (cost or time). Average/Mean
Normal Distribution, assumes Median close to Mean. A difference of 0.2%
Refined, The stdev of the entire population
Refined, error limit reset to 0.8%
Relative measure of the curve(shape) with the curve(shape) in the normal distribution
Measure of asymmetry. In a normal distribution skew = 0. Tail extends right or left side
Note
Help
1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
-1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 0
0 1 0 1 0
. . . . .
-1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1 0
. . . . .
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 1 0
-1 0 0 -1 0
. . . . .
1 0 0 1 0
-1 0 0 -1 0
-1 0 0 -1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
-1 0 0 -1 0
. . . . .
0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0
0 -1 0 -1 0
0 1 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 -1
. . . . .
0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 -1 0
0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 -1 0
0 0 0 -1 0
0 0 0 -1 0
. . . . .
0 0 0 -1 0
0 0 0 -1 0
0 0 0 0 1
. . . . .
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 -1 0
1 0 0 -1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 -1 0
1 0 0 1 0
1 0 0 -1 0
1 0 0 1 0
-1 0 0 -1 0
. . . . .
0 0 1 1 0
0 0 0 -1 0
0 0 1 -1 0
0 0 0 0 0
32 9 3 52 2
18 7 3 16 0
IPG PPG EPG MPG CPG
56.25 77.78 100.00 30.77 0.00
Note
Help
1
1
. . . . .
1
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
0
-1
. . . . .
0
0
0
0
1
-1
. . . . .
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
. . . . .
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
. . . . .
1
-1
1
. . . . .
1 8 2 4 18
1 2 2 4 18
IPG PPG EPG MPG CPG
100.00 25.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Note
Help
1
1
. . . . .
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
. . . . .
1
1 1
1
1 1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1
1
1 1
1
1 1
1 1
1 1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
. . . . .
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
19 27 25 17 18
19 27 25 17 18
IPG PPG EPG MPG CPG
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
A Initiation
A.1 Stakeholder Analysis
A.1.1 Single owner
A.1.2 Joint owners
A.2 Investments
A.2.1 Initial Budget outlay
A.2.2 Fund Flow
A.3 Site Selection
A.3.1 Agency Search
A.3.2 Personal search
A.4 Land Acquistion
A.4.1 Execution
A.4.1.1 Technical study
A.4.1.1.1 Site Inspection
A.4.1.1.1.1 Size
A.4.1.1.1.2 Shape
A.4.1.1.1.3 Gradient
A.4.1.1.1.4 Survey number
A.4.1.1.2 Environment Inspection
A.4.1.1.2.1 Waste land
A.4.1.1.2.2 Farm lands
A.4.1.1.2.3 Garbage dumps
A.4.1.1.2.4 Industrial waste
A.4.1.1.2.5 Temple
A.4.1.1.2.6 Vastu
A.4.1.1.2.7 Power station
A.4.1.1.2.8 Farm Well
A.4.1.1.2.9 Cemetry
A.4.1.1.2.10 Hospitals
A.4.1.1.2.11 Schools
A.4.1.1.2.12 Shopping
A.4.1.1.2.13 Neigbhours
A.4.1.1.2.14 Water
A.4.1.1.2.15 Parks and play area
A.4.1.1.2.16 Broad roads
A.4.1.1.2.17 Small roads
A.4.1.1.2.18 Dead ends
A.4.1.1.2.19 Busy roads
A.5.1 Monitor & Closure
A.5.1.1 Administrative Procedures
A.5.1.1.1 Local rules and regulation
A.5.1.1.2 Legal opinion
A.5.1.1.3 Revenue verification
A.5.1.1.4 Local body records
A.5.1.1.5 Court rule verification
A.5.1.1.6 EC Verification
A.5.1.1.7 Approval powers
A.5.1.1.8 Personal verification
A.5.1.1.9 Administrative closures
B Planning
B.1 Architecture
B.1.1 Floor plan
B.1.2 Interior
B.1.3 Exterior
B.1.4 Rules and regulation local
B.1.5 Marketable
B.1.6 Vastu
B.2 Structural Design
B.2.1 Soil Test
B.2.2 Strength
B.2.3 Technical study
B.3 Non Sterotype Foundation
B.3.1 Column
B.3.2 Pile
B.4 Documentation
B.4.1 SOW
B.4.2 Contract Documentation
B.4.2.1 Scope of work
B.4.2.2 Stakeholders
B.4.2.3 Time management
B.4.2.4 Procurement management plan
B.4.2.5 Cost management plan
B.4.2.6 Risk management plan
B.4.2.7 Facility management plan
B.4.2.8 Other plans
B.4.2.9 Contract administration
B.4.3 Administrative procedures
B.4.3.1 Plan Submission
B.4.3.2 Plan Approvals
B.4.3.3 Local body approval
B.4.3.4 Temp EB connection
C Execution
C.1 Site forming
C.2 Marking
C.3 Earth work excavation
C.4 Sand filling
C.5 Column Foundation
C.5.1 PCC 148 Footing
C.5.2 RCC 124 Footing
C.5.3 RCC column upto roof level
C.5.4 Earth re-filling in footing
C.5.5 Plinth beam concrete works
C.6 Superstructure
C.6.1 9 in Brick work in Superstructure
C.6.2 9 in Brick work in steps
C.6.3 RCC 124 for lintel, loft, s.shade
C.6.4 Lintel
C.6.5 Loft
C.6.6 Sun Shade
C.7 Roofing
C.7.1 Roof slab concrete
C.7.2 Staircase flight
C.7.3 Staricase beams
C.8 Plasetring works
C.8.1 Ceiling
C.8.2 Walls
C.9 Fixtures
C.9.1 Wooden fixtures
C.9.1.1 Main doors
C.9.1.2 Room doors
C.9.1.3 PVC doors
C.9.1.4 Window frames and shutters
C.10 Provisioning for Electricals
C.11 Provisioning for Plumbing and Sanitory
C.12 Flooring
C.12.1 Laying of tiles
C.12.1.1 Bathrooms
C.12.1.2 Fresh rooms
C.12.1.3 Kitchens
C.12.1.4 Skirting
C.12.2 Laying of marble
C.12.2.1 Hall
C.12.2.2 Skirting
C.13 Warddrobes
C.13.1 Slabs
C.13.2 Brickwork
C.13.3 Plastering
C.14 Terrace Roof top work
C.14.1 Parapet walls
C.14.2 Weathering course
C.14.3 OH tank
C.14.3.1 OH tank slab concreting
C.14.3.2 9 inch wall
C.14.3.3 OH tank
C.14.3.4 Ladder for OH
C.15 Outer plastering
C.15.1 Staircase
C.15.2 Tank area
C.15.3 Cement painting of external walls
C.16 Provisions
C.16.1 Provision for rain harverst chambers
C.16.2 Provision for cloth drying
C.16.3 Provision for Elevation works
C.16.4 Provision for painting outer areas
C.16.5 Provision for pathways
C.16.6 Provision for Main gate and compound wall
C.16.7 Provision for Electricals
C.16.8 Provision for Plumbing and Sanitory
D Monitoring and Control
D.1 Supervision (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Special)
D.1.2 Work inspection
D.1.2.1 Corrective actions
D.1.2.2 Preventive actions
D.1.2.3 Defect repair
D.1.3 Inventory
D.1.3.1 Inventory audits
D.1.3.2 Corrective actions
D.1.3.3 Preventive actions
D.1.4 Approvals
D.1.4.1 Change Approvals
D.1.4.2 Change requests
E Closure
E.1 Completion certification
E.1.1 Tax assessments
E.1.1.1 Water, Sew, Building from local authorities
E.1.1.2 Electrical layout
E.1.1.3 Plumbing layout
E.1.1.4 Structural layout
E.2 Obtain Connection
E.2.1 Water
E.2.2 EB
E.2.3 Sewage
E.3 Handover to Owner
E.3.1 House Warming Ceremony
E.3.1.1 Function start and end
E.3.1.2 Final touch up
E.4.1 Contract closure
E.4.1.1 Payments
E.4.1.2 All orginial docs handover
E.4.1.3 Applicable maintenance contracts