Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

Conditional Simulation
Overview and Applications

Introduction
Simulated deposits are computer models that represent a deposit or a system. These models are used
in place of the real system to represent that system for some purpose. The simulation models are built
to have the same distribution, dispersion characteristics, and spatial relationships of the grade values in
the deposit. In addition, conditionally simulated models have the same values at the known sample data
locations. They are conditioned to the original sample values. Although the reference here is made to
grade, any variable can be simulated.
The difference between models of estimation and simulation lies in their objectives.
The Objective of Simulation
The objective of simulation is to reproduce the variance of the input data, both the distribution of
the grades (i.e., the histogram) and spatial correlations (i.e., the variogram). Thus simulations provide an
appropriate platform to study any problem relating to variability in a way that estimates cannot.
Local and global estimations of recoverable reserves are often insufficient at the planning stage of a
new mine or a new section of an operating mine. For the mining engineer, as well as the metallurgist and
chemist, it is often essential to be able to predict the variations of the characteristics of the recoverable
reserves at various stages in the operation.
For instance, in the processing of low-grade iron ore deposits, keeping final product within strict
quality standards may be a complex task whenever impurities such as phosphorus are involved. The
blending process and the flexibility of the plant will depend on the dispersion variance of the grades
received at all scales (daily, monthly, yearly).
Therefore, a detailed definition of an adequate mining control method is essential. For a preliminary
design, it is admissible to use average values (estimates) to perform an evaluation. When it comes to
detailed definitions, however, these averages are not sufficient due to local fluctuations.
If the in-situ reality was known, the required dispersions, and thus the most suitable working
methods, could be determined by applying various simulated processes to this reality. Unfortunately,
the perfect knowledge of this in-situ reality is not available at the planning stages of the operation. The
information available at this stage is usually incomplete, and limited to the grades of a few samples. The
estimations deduced from this information are far too imprecise or smooth for the exact calculations of
dispersions that are required.
Simulation can help us in this aspect. While the real data are known only at a limited number of
locations, the simulated values are known at almost every point in the deposit. It is then possible to apply
Global the simulation to various processes of sampling, extraction, hauling, stockpiling, milling etc., to study
Mining their technical and economic consequences and by feedback to correct these processes.
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Simulation or Estimation
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Estimation and simulation are complementary tools. Estimation is appropriate for assessing mineral
Since
reserves, particularly global in situ reserves. Simulation aims at correctly representing spatial variability,
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and is more appropriate than estimation for decisions in which spatial variability is a critical concern and
for risk analysis.
The objective of estimation, such as kriging, is to obtain the “average” values that are as close as
possible to the true but unknown values. The result is a single and smooth representation of the grade
spatial distribution in the deposit. The interpolation methods, including kriging and inverse distance
weighting, will smooth out local details of spatial variation, especially as interpolated locations become
more distant from measured locations.
Estimation using kriging gives us the minimum estimation variance, but we lose the variability in the
output as a consequence (i.e., smoothing).
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Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

Making the estimated blocks smaller is not a solution. In fact, this results in more unrealistic
smoothness of the blocks. Note that this may not be a problem for predicting gross grade and tonnage,
but it is a real issue if we need to predict the local variability of grades, for instance dealing with
variability control issues.
Simulation, on the other hand, provides the same mean, histogram, and the variogram as the real
grades (assuming that the samples are representative of the reality). It identifies the main dispersion
characteristics of these true grades. Thus, when we simulate, we retain the variability of the input data,
but each simulation, if taken as an estimate, has higher estimation variance than kriging.
The simulation and the reality have the same general character. The degree of noise (nugget and short
range variability) and the longer-scale spatial character displayed through their variograms are similar.
Simulation provides a range of non-smooth representations of the grades in the deposit. These
representations are called the realizations; each one is equally likely to be a possible “deposit” which could
have given the original set of samples.
In general, the objectives of simulation and estimation are not compatible. Figure 1 gives the real
(thick solid line), simulated (normal solid line) and estimated (dashed line) profiles to demonstrate the
differences. We can see from this figure that, even though the estimation curve is, on average, closer to
the real curve, the simulation curve is a better reproduction of the fluctuations of the real curve.
The estimation curve is preferable to locate and estimate reserves, while the simulation curve is
preferred for studying the dispersion characteristics of these reserves, remembering that the real curve is
known only at the experimental data points.
The simulation (thick solid curve) is a poor estimate of the local average grade, compared to the kriging
(smooth dashed line). The only exception is when there is a data point, then the two methods agree.
In essence a simulation is an alternative grade-profile that has the same ‘character’ as the true profile.
To meet this criteria the histogram and variogram of a simulation must be in agreement with those of the
data. If we stipulate that known sample data must be honored, then the resultant simulation is called a
conditional simulation (CS).

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Figure 1. Real, simulated, and estimated profiles. (Thick solid line = reality, normal solid line = conditional simulation, dashed line 1970
= kriging, o = conditioning data.)

Averaging a Set of Conditional Simulations

There are theoretically an infinite number of simulations that can meet the conditions that can
provide us acceptable results. These are referred to as ‘equiprobable images’ of the mineralization or the
‘realizations.’ Each individual simulation is a poor estimate of the local average grade. However, a set of
simulations can be averaged to yield good estimates.
A collection of many such simulations, when averaged over a block volume, is basically equivalent to
a kriged estimate. The average of all simulated values within a block can therefore be taken as a close
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 Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

estimate of the true average grade of the block. This provides a number of practical applications of CS.
Because we have multiple realizations within each estimated block, we can have access to the Selective
Mining Unit (SMU) grade distribution within a block. Therefore CS is a good route to recoverable
resource estimation.
Since each simulation provides an alternative equiprobable representation of the mineralization in the
deposit, we can get as many equally realistic answers to any of our questions as we want. The differences
between these answers give us a measure of the spatial uncertainty and can help us manage the financial
risk attached to the project.
Thus simulation allows local variations in values of a variable to be examined, primarily regarding
what impact these local variations may have on sampling plans, estimation procedures, mine and mill
planning and financial matters.
Typical Uses of Simulated Deposits
A conditionally simulated deposit represents a known numerical model on a very dense grid. As
the simulation can only reproduce known, modeled structures, the simulation grid is limited to the
dimensions of the smallest modeled structure. Various methods of sampling, selection, mining, haulage,
blending, ore control and so on, can be applied to this numerical model, to test their efficiency before
applying them to the real deposit.
Some of the examples of typical uses of simulated deposits are as follows:
• Application in grade control to determine dig-lines that are most likely to maximize the profit
or minimize the dollar loss.
• Comparative studies of various estimation methods and approaches to mine planning
problems.
• Studies of the sampling level necessary for any given objective.
• Application for generating models of porosity and permeability.
• Application in petroleum reservoir production.
• Studies to determine the probability of exceeding a regulatory limit and application in
development of emission control strategy.
• Studies to quantify the variability of impurities or contaminants in metal or coal delivered to a
customer at different scales and time frames.
• Prediction of recoverable reserves.
• Application in generating confidence intervals for the block grades.
• Application in verifying change of support procedures, and computing volume/variance
correction factors.
• Application in modeling local spatial variability for blending, stockpiling or mining selectivity
studies.
• Conditional simulation of coal seam thickness to determine economic feasibility.
Global
Mining • Conditional simulation of geology.
Software • Conditional simulation in variability of mine designs to communicate uncertainty and to
Solutions enhance understanding of risk.
Since It must be understood that the results obtained from simulated deposits will apply to reality only
1970 to the extent to which the simulated deposit reproduces the essential characteristics of the real system.
Therefore, the more the real deposit is known, the better its model will be, and the closer the conditional
simulation will be to reality. As the quality of the conditional simulation improves, not only do the
reproduced structures of the variability become closer to those of reality, but so also will the qualitative
characteristics (geology, alteration, and so on) that can be introduced into the numerical model. It must
be stressed that simulation cannot replace a good sampling campaign of the real deposit.
Sample Run Using Sequential Gaussian Simulation
The available simulation algorithms in MineSight® are the Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) and
Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). They are currently accessed through the Advanced Geostatistics
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Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

group in MSCompass program. However, the technical support is currently only available to users who
received the training or those who are knowledgeable on the subject.
Figure 2 shows a snap-shot of the MS Compass Procedure Manager when the Advanced Geostatistics
group is selected. Note that these menu functions are preliminary, but they can be further customized or
modified if necessary.
The Sequential Gaussian Simulation is done using the normal scores, or the data transformed into
normal distribution. The normal scores transformation results are usually output to an ascii file, but they
can be loaded into MS composite files.

Figure 2. Advanced Geostatistics Group example.

Before a conditional simulation run, a variogram analysis of the normal scores data is necessary. The
parameters of the normal scores variograms are used for the simulation. Although the simulation results
can be output to an ascii file, it is often necessary to set up a 3D block model to store the results. The
block size used for the conditional simulation model is usually much smaller than the Selective Mining
Unit (SMU) size since it should represent the deposit at point scale. If a 3D block model available, the
simulation results can directly be stored. Once the simulated values are in the model file, the standard
MineSight® programs are used to verify, display, plot and summarize the results. The simulated grade of
the blocks can be combined into any size of SMU for further analysis. Figure 3 shows Panel 1 of SGS
Conditional Simulation procedure.

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Figure 3. Conditional Simulation 1970
(SGS) Panel 1.

The user has to fill out the parameters necessary in each of the panels. Figure 4 shows the last panel of
SGS Conditional Simulation procedure.

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 Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

Figure 4. Conditional Simulation

(SGS) Last Panel.

Finally, Figure 5 shows a plan view of bench 2600 from a sample Conditional Simulation exercise for
Copper grades.

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Since Figure 5. Conditional Simulation
1970 (SGS) of 2600 bench for Copper on
sample project.

Geology Simulation
In addition to simulating grade, categorical variables such as lithology, alteration, or mineralization
can also be simulated. In reality, most simulations of ore deposits are a combination of geologic and
grade simulations. Figure 6 shows Panel 1 of SIS Conditional Simulation procedure.

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Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

Creating an indicator simulation that provides a reasonable representation of the deposit geology can
be a difficult task. Of course it is important to correctly model the indicator variogram associated with
the unit and to capture any spatial anisotropies.
However even if this step is performed correctly, it can be difficult develop a simulation that is both
believable and representative of the deposit geology if there is not sufficient number of conditioning data.
The SIS Local Means option can be helpful in this case. This requires the calculation and storing in each
block the probabilities of geology (described as cutoff) before attempting the simulation. Figure 7 shows
the panel of SGS Conditional Simulation procedure relating to Local Mean items in the model. Figure 8
shows a plan view of bench 2600 from a sample Conditional Simulation SIS exercise for geology (Rock
types) using this option.

Figure 6. Conditional Simulation

(SIS) Panel 1.

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Figure 7. Conditional Simulation

(SIS) Local Mean options Panel.

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 Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

Figure 8. Conditional Simulation

(SIS) of 2600 bench for Rock on
sample project.

Post Processing of Simulations

A simulation study involves creating many equi-probable realizations, which are conditioned to the
local data, and then analyzing the variability of the results. Depending on the purpose of the simulation,
typically 20 to 100 or more simulations can be run. The range of simulations will depend on the
variogram properties, and the data density. Blocks located in poorly informed zones will vary widely
from one simulation to another, whereas blocks located in well drilled areas will vary little, due to the
conditioning effect.
The generation of a number of simulations provides a distribution of grade estimates for each block.
These distributions can be used to calculate various probabilities of occurrence. For example, the 10th
worst ranked simulation of 100 runs could be described as the 10% chance that the average grades are
not lower than this distribution. Uses of this feature can be helpful in quantifying global resource or
reserve risk, pit optimization and NPV risk, pit phase risk and mine scheduling risk.
In order to quantify the resource and scheduling risk, block and level averages can be calculated
for the mean grade, a pessimistic case and an optimistic case. As mining progresses downwards and
Global outwards to the less drilled areas, there will be an apparent increase in risk, as expected. However, the
Mining quantification of this risk allows the incorporation of the pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic grades
Software directly into a number of cash flow projections. Risk management then can be undertaken, incorporating
changes in scheduling, additional drilling, etc., in order to ensure that cash flow projections remain
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within acceptable levels of risk.
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1970 The conditional simulations can be re-blocked to the resource estimate block size or the SMU size for
comparison of the grade-tonnage curves corresponding to the different block sizes. The procedure to use
for this task is psiblk.dat. This procedure outputs the results into an ASCII file, which then can be loaded
into another 3-d block model with the appropriate block size using the procedure p61001.dat.
The amount of data and information generated by the simulations can be difficult to manage and
summarize. Mintec is still working on adding more practical tools and capabilities to MineSight to help
post-process the simulation results efficiently.

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Conditional Simulation: Overview and Applications

The following tips can be useful for generating and storing the multiple simulation results:
• If the simulated area is a single bench, one can create a model with multiple benches. The
number of benches in the model should be equal to the number of simulations to be generated.
It is usually a good idea to add an extra bench for averaging the simulation results and store.
This approach is good for 2-d simulations and makes it very easy to view each simulation in
MineSight. Each bench in the model corresponds to a simulation.
• If the simulated area consists of multiple benches, one has to create a model with multiple
simulation items. The number of items in the model should be equal to the number of
simulations desired. The simulations can be generated by multi-run and each simulation is
stored into a separate item.
Current version of the MSCS program only allows one simulation result to be stored to the 3-d block
model directly, even though the program can generate multiple simulations. At this time, if one wants
multiple simulations generated in a single run, he or she must use the ASCII output option, and load the
results into the model items using the procedure p61001.dat. However, the ASCII data can get quite large
in size depending on the number of simulations, and thus more difficult to manipulate.
We hope to discuss these and related post-processing issues, some practical applications and the
experience of the clients with simulations during the workshop.

References
Arik, A., 2001, “Performance Analysis of Different Estimation Methods on Conditionally Simulated
Deposits,” SME Transactions, Vol. 310.
Arik, A., 2003, “Kriging vs. Simulation: How optimum is our pit design?” 4th CAMI Symposium
Proceedings, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Coombes, J., Thomas, G., Glacken, I., Snowden, V., 2000, “Conditional Simulation – Which Method
For Mining?” Geostats 2000 Cape Town.
Dagdelen, K., Verly, G., and Coskun B., 1997, “Conditional Simulation for Recoverable Reserve
Estimation,” SME Annual Meeting, Preprint 97-201.
David, M., 1977, Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation, Elsevier, Amsterdam.
Duggan, S. and Dimitrakopoulos, R., 2004, “Application of Conditional Simulation to Quantify
Uncertainty and to Classify a Diamond Deflation Deposit,” Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics,
Geostatistics Banff 2004.
Isaaks, E.H., Srivastava, R.M., 1989, Applied Geostatistics, New York, Oxford University Press.
Journel A.G. and Huijbregts Ch.J., 1978, Mining Geostatistics, Academic Press, London.
Kim, Y.C, Knudsen, H.P. and Baafi, E.Y., 1980, Application of Conditional Simulation to Emission
Control Strategy Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.
Lloyd, C.D., McKinley, J. M. and Ruffell, A. H., 2003, “Conditional Simulation of Sandstone
Permeability” Proceedings of IAMG 2003.
Ravenscroft, P. J., 1992, “Recoverable Reserve Estimation by Conditional Simulation,” Geological Global
Society, London, Special Publications; p. 289-298; Mining
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1970

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