What bad night for Trump means for

2020

Anthony ZurcherNorth America reporter@awzurcheron Twitter

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 US election 2020

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionDonald Trump shakes hands with Kentucky governor
Matt Bevin during a rally in Lexington, Kentucky

Off-year state elections in the US can be a mixed bag or harbingers of things to come.

Democratic gains in Virginia and New Jersey in 2017 presaged an electoral wave in 2018 that
delivered control of the US House of Representatives to the party for the first time in eight years.

On Tuesday voters in a handful of states once again headed to the polls - and the message they
delivered was one that again should be of concern to Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Here are a few takeaways from a night of balloting just under a year from the 2020 national election.
A Trump-loving governor facing defeat
Four years ago, Republican Matt Bevin won the Kentucky governorship by campaigning as an
outspoken businessman outsider. He beat more establishment candidates for his party's nomination
and upended the Democrat in the general election with broad support from rural parts of the state.

In short, he was a Donald Trump-style candidate a year before Donald Trump won the presidency.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionMatt Bevin was elected governor of Kentucky in 2015

Once in office, Bevin governed a lot like Trump, as well.

He used big Republican majorities in his state legislature to push through controversial legislation
that included dismantling an Obama-era public healthcare programme, occasionally became mired in
controversy and generally catered primarily to his loyal supporters.

Despite sinking popularity in opinion polls, he contended that he would win a comfortable re-
election.

He didn't.

Whatever magic Bevin had in 2015, it had worn off by Tuesday night's election, as Bevin appears to
have been narrowly defeated by the young, charismatic Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionDemocrat Andy Beshear said he was ready for his first
day in office

Bevin's strength in the rural parts of the state weren't enough to overcome Beshear's margins in the
cities and - of particular concern to Republicans - the kind of suburban areas that also were key to
many Democratic wins in 2018.

Although Kentucky has a history of electing Democratic governors (Beshear's father ran the state
before Bevin), the state has trended solidly conservative in recent years. In 2015, Trump carried it by
30% - one of his largest margins of victory anywhere.

Trump himself threw his support behind Bevin in the campaign's closing days, holding a rally in
Louisville on Monday - and warned that a Bevin loss could bolster the forces pushing for his
impeachment.
Media captionPresident Trump mocked Democrat Beto O'Rourke for withdrawing from the 2020
presidential race

"If you lose, they will say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world," the
president said at that rally. "You can't let that happen to me, and you can't let that happen to your
incredible state."

The president wasn't wrong. Republicans did well in other Kentucky races and Bevin's loss may be
by the narrowest of margins (and could lead to a court-ordered recount), but it will be cited as
evidence of Trump's weakened political muscle.

Virginia goes full blue

In 2017 Virginia Democrats retained the state's governorship while coming within a hair of winning
control of the state house of delegates for the first time in 18 years - a result that few had predicted
was possible.

On Tuesday the party finished the job, winning both chambers of the state's legislature and
delivering the party unified control of the state government for the first time since 1993.

Two years ago, Danica Roem became the first openly transgender candidate to win election a state
legislature seat. On Tuesday the Democrat won re-election by a 14% margin.

Image copyrightREUTERSImage captionVoters cast their ballots in state and local elections in
Virginia

In a Richmond suburb, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi won an upset victory to become the first Muslim
woman in the state's senate.

Democrats also defeated the last Republican legislator left in the Washington, DC, suburbs - yet
another indication that the Trump presidency has cost the Republican Party support in what has
been a key swing demographic.
Both of Virginia's US senators are also Democrats, as is a majority of the state's House of
Representatives delegation (thanks to 2018 victories).

In other words, Virginia - which was once comfortably Republican and recently had been considered
a swing state - is solidly Democratic blue.

Democrats will now be able to draw legislative district lines for the coming decade that consolidate
their power, and pass new gun-control restrictions and minimum-wage laws.

Earlier this year, the state's governor was mired in a scandal over a photograph of a person in
blackface in his medical school yearbook, prompting concerns among Democrats that it would take a
toll on their electoral prospects.

It didn't. Instead the trend in Virginia that started in 2017 continued through 2019. As some recent
polls show, Trump still has a path to an Electoral College victory and presidential re-election in 2020,
but it is highly doubtful that course will run through Virginia.

A Republican silver lining

The other governor's race on the ballot on Tuesday was in deeply conservative Mississippi. There
had been some concern among Republicans that their candidate could be in a closer-than-expected
race.

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionTate Reeves, pictured here, was endorsed by Donald
Trump ahead of the election

Their fears appear to be unfounded, as Tate Reeves holds a comfortable margin over Democrat Jim
Hood.

Winning a state-wide race in Mississippi may be not much of a cause for celebration given the
Virginia and Kentucky results, but on down nights a party will take happiness where they can find it.