COMMENTARY
Demography and Development:
Preliminary Interpretations
of the 2011 Census
K Navaneetham, A Dharmalingam
The pace at which India’s
population is growing is slowing,
but not as rapidly as expected;
India will become the largest
country in the world sooner than
earlier forecast. Literacy rates
have increased sharply between
2001 and 2011; some of the low
performing rates have shown
strong improvements, the others
have not. The dismal picture in
the 2011 Census is that even as the
overall sex ratio has improved due
to better adult female mortality,
that of the child sex ratio has
further deteriorated. High
mortality among girl children
and sex selective abortions have
pushed the child sex ratio down
in all but three states.
K Navaneetham (nava@cds.ac.in) is at the
Centre for Development Studies,
Thiruvananthapuram and A Dharmalingam
(Dharma.arunachalam@monash.edu) is at the
Centre for Population and Urban Research,
Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Economic & Political Weekly  EPW   April 16, 2011  vol xlvI no 16
A
ccording to the provisional results
of the 2011 Census, released by
the Registrar General of India on
31 March 2011, India’s population as on
1 March 2011 was 1,210 million. This is larger
than the population size projected by ex-
perts and most professional organisations.
Population Growth
Between the census years 2001 and 2011,
the absolute addition to the population
was 181 million. The average annual expo-
nential growth rate during 2001-11 was
1.62%, 0.33 percentage points less than the
rate observed during 1991-2001 (Table 1).
If the fall in the growth rate over the last
two decades continues, and there is every
reason to believe that this will be the case,
the rate of growth of population would be
much lower in the coming decades.
Though the growth rate has declined
compared to the previous decade of 1991-
2001, there was only a marginal decline in
the absolute number of people added to
the population total. This is not unexpected
as there are still a growing number of
women entering the reproductive ages –
the result of high fertility in the past. This
inbuilt tendency for India’s population to
grow will continue at least until the middle
Table 1: Population Growth in India (1901-2011)
Census Population Decadal Growth of Average
Year Population (%) Annual Haryana, Maharashtra and Gujarat. In
Growth
Rate (%)
1901 23,83,96,327 porter of people to elsewhere in India and
1911 25,20,93,390 1,36,97,063 5.75 0.56
1921 25,13,21,213 -7,72,177 -0.31 -0.03
1931 27,89,77,238 2,76,56,025 11 1.04
1941 31,86,60,580 3,96,83,342 14.22 1.33
1951 36,10,88,090 4,24,27,510 13.31 1.25
1961 43,92,34,771 7,81,46,681 21.64 1.96
1971 54,81,59,652 10,89,24,881 24.8 2.22
1981 68,33,29,097 13,51,69,445 24.66 2.20
1991 84,64,21,039 16,30,91,942 23.87 2.14
2001 1,02,87,37,436 18,23,16,397 21.54 1.95
2011 1,21,01,93,422 18,14,55,986 17.64 1.62
Source: Registrar General of India (2011).
of this century. A comparison of crude
population growth rate and crude rate of
natural increase computed from the Sample
Registration System (SRS) data also indi-
cates a net in-migration rate of around
0.15% during the decade 2001-11.
When the final population totals are
r­eleased, India’s population would certainly
be larger. There would be an addition of
about two million to the final population
total if the same patterns as in the previ-
ous census are repeated. Although the
f­inal t­otal is not adjusted, the “true” total is
likely to exceed 1,210 million by several
millions as censuses around the world –
and the developed countries are no excep-
tion – suffer from under-enumeration. In
the past, post-enumeration surveys in
India indicated that the levels of under-
enumeration varied between 1.5% and 2.0%
(Nanda 1992; Bhat 1998, 2002; Dyson 1981,
2001). A conservative assumption of 1.0%
under-enumeration in the 2011 Census
would add at least 12 million more to the
final t­otal. This may mean that the decline
in growth rate during 2001-11 is even
smaller than what the provisional popula-
tion t­otals yield.
The average annual growth rate of pop-
ulation declined in all major states except
in Tamil Nadu (Table 2, p 14). The Tamil
Nadu exception may be the result of growth
in net in-mig­ration into Tamil Nadu during
2001-11. The relatively larger difference
between the crude growth rate and the
crude rate of natural increase in Tamil
Nadu (Figure 1, p 14) during 2001-11 than
that observed during 1991-2001 indicates
that the increase in net in-migration was
responsible for stability rather than any
decrease in its growth rate. The other
notable in-migration major states are
contrast, Kerala continues to be a net ex-
overseas. Figure 1 also indicates under-
enumeration in the states of Jammu and
Kashmir, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkand.
Achievements in Literacy
The provisional population figure of the
2011 Census shows a marked improve-
ment in the literacy rate. The effective lit-
eracy rate (literacy rate in population
aged 7+ years) increased from 64.8% to
74% over the decade 2001-11. Although
13
COMMENTARY
Figurebetween
Figure 1: Relationship 1. Relationship between
Crude Growth Rate Crude
(CGR) and Crude RateGrowth Rate (CGR)
of Natural Increase (CRNI) and terms of improvement even though they
Crude
among Major States Rate of Natural Increase (CRNI) in India, 2001-2011
(2001-11)
had higher levels of literacy in 2001.
2.75

Gender Composition: Sex Ratio

2.25 Rajasthan Bihar China and India have the dubious distinc-
Uttar Pradesh
MP
tion of having the most unfavourable pop-
Jharkhand
Haryana ulation sex ratios among the 10 most pop-
2001-09 (%)

1.75 Chhatisgarh
ulous countries in the world, with India
(%)

Gujarat
2001-09

Assam India
Delhi
being marginally better than China: 940
JK
West Bengal Karnataka vs 926 females per 1,000 males. In con-
CRNI,

1.25
CRNI,

Orissa Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh
Punjab
trast, in almost all of India’s south Asian
neighbours (Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh
Kerala Tamil Nadu
0.75 and Sri Lanka) women fare better in the
sex ratio. Pakistan too has a marginally
better sex ratio.
0.25
Nevertheless, the first decade of the 21st
0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75
CGR, 2001-11 (%) century may mark the beginning of a long-
CGR, 2001-11 (%)
term positive change in the position of
the improvement was significant for both the results are presented in Table 3 (p 15). women in India. The sex ratio in 2011 is
males and females – an increase from These indices show that, although Bihar, almost equal to what was observed in
75.3% to 82.1% for males and from 53.4% Arunachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and 1961. In between, India’s sex ratio hovered
to 65.46% for females – females gained Jammu and Kashmir had a lower achieve- around 930 – the lowest recorded since
more than males. ment level in literacy in 2001, ranking at systematic and regular decennial census
At high levels of literacy rate (say over the bottom, they all stood at higher ranks collections began in the late 19th century.
75%), the improvement is expected to be with respect to improvement in literacy The regional pattern in sex ratios in 2011
gradual rather than exponential. To make during the decade 2001-11. On the other is along the long-established contours: rel-
valid comparisons between states at hand, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan atively less “masculine” sex ratios in the
various levels of literacy rate or compari- which also had a low achievement level in south and east compared to the north I­ndian
sons over time, conventional measures of 2001, performed poorly relative to other states. Likewise, the improvement in pop-
l­iteracy need to be complemented by states with comparable base levels in im- ulation sex ratio since 2001 is not uniform
measures that make due allowance for proving their literacy level during 2001-11. across the country. Between 2001 and 2011,
variation in the base levels (see for details, As should be expected, the southern sex ratios have worsened in only three
Dutta et al 1997). states which already had higher levels of major states: Bihar, Gujarat and Jammu and
Two such standardised indices known literacy were not ranked high with respect Kashmir (Table 4, p 15). Despite the poor
as the “achievement” and “improvement” to achievement progress during 2001-11. performance in three major states, the sex
indices were constructed for the states and Interestingly, smaller states did better in ratio at the national level improved thanks
Table 2: Population and Growth Trends among Major States to noticeable gains in Punjab, Haryana,
States Population (000) Percentage Decadal Growth Average Annual Geometric Growth Rate Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra (and
2001 2011 1991-2001 2001-11 1991-2001 2001-11 Chandigarh and Delhi). These states expe-
Andhra Pradesh 76,210 84,666 14.59 11.10 1.37 1.06
rienced an increase in sex ratios during the
Bihar 82,999 1,03,805 28.62 25.07 2.55 2.26
first decades of the 21st century compared
Gujarat 50,671 60,384 22.66 19.17 2.06 1.77
to a decrease in the 1990s. Gujarat is the
Haryana 21,145 25,353 28.43 19.90 2.53 1.83
Himachal Pradesh 6,078 6,857 17.54 12.81 1.63 1.21
only major state where the sex ratio de-
Jammu and Kashmir 10,144 12,549 29.43 23.71 2.61 2.15 clined both in the 1990s and thereafter,
Karnataka 52,851 61,131 17.51 15.67 1.63 1.47 although the decline in the past decade
Kerala 31,841 33,388 9.43 4.86 0.90 0.48 (only 3 points) was much less than that in
Madhya Pradesh 60,348 72,598 24.26 20.30 2.20 1.87 the 1990s (over 10 points).
Maharashtra 96,879 1,12,373 22.73 15.99 2.07 1.49 The increase in sex ratio between the
Orissa 36,805 41,947 16.25 13.97 1.52 1.32 1991 and 2001 censuses was interpreted with
Punjab 24,359 27,704 20.10 13.73 1.85 1.30 guarded optimism. This was because some
Rajasthan 56,507 68,621 28.41 21.44 2.53 1.96
of the increase during the 1990s was likely
Sikkim 541 608 33.06 12.36 2.90 1.17
to have been due to substantial i­mprovement
Tamil Nadu 62,406 72,139 11.72 15.60 1.11 1.46
in census enumeration. In fact, it was sug-
Uttar Pradesh 1,66,198 1,99,581 25.85 20.09 2.33 1.85
West Bengal 80,176 91,348 17.77 13.93 1.65 1.31
gested that there may not have been any
India 10,28,737 12,10,193 21.54 17.64 1.97 1.64 change in the sex ratio d­uring the 1980s and
Source: Same as Table 1. 1990s (Dyson 2001). There are grounds to
14 April 16, 2011  vol xlvI no 16  EPW   Economic & Political Weekly
 COMMENTARY
Table 3: Achievement and Improvement Index in Literacy Level (2001-11) India until the 1980s. Only during the 1990s
States Effective Literacy Rate 2001 2011 2001-11
did female life expectancy exceed male life
2001 2011 Achievement Index Rank Achievement Index Rank Improvement Index Rank
Andhra Pradesh 60.47 67.66 0.78 19 0.82 21 0.04 15
expectancy by one year; the gap increased
Arunachal Pradesh 53.34 66.95 0.73 23 0.82 23 0.09 2 to two years during the first half of the first
Bihar 47.00 63.82 0.69 24 0.80 24 0.11 1 d­ecade of this century. In the western
Goa 82.01 87.40 0.91 3 0.93 4 0.03 22 countries, the gender gap in life expectancy
Gujarat 69.14 79.31 0.83 10 0.89 11 0.06 10 is in the range of three to five years in favour
Haryana 67.91 76.64 0.82 13 0.88 14 0.05 13 of females. It is very likely that declining
Himachal Pradesh 76.48 83.78 0.87 5 0.92 5 0.04 19
mortality among females relative to males
Jammu & Kashmir 55.52 68.74 0.75 22 0.83 20 0.08 4
Karnataka 66.64 75.60 0.82 14 0.87 15 0.05 12
in the last 10 to 20 years is the major driver
Kerala 90.86 93.91 0.95 1 0.97 1 0.02 23 of increase in population sex ratio.
Madhya Pradesh 63.74 70.63 0.80 16 0.84 18 0.04 16
Maharashtra 76.88 82.91 0.88 4 0.91 6 0.03 21 Decline in Child Sex Ratio
Manipur 69.93 79.85 0.84 8 0.89 10 0.06 11 As was the case during the 1990s, the in-
Meghalaya 62.56 75.48 0.79 18 0.87 16 0.08 7 crease in population sex ratio was almost
Mizoram 88.80 91.58 0.94 2 0.96 2 0.01 24
entirely due to the increase in sex ratio
Nagaland 66.59 80.11 0.82 15 0.90 9 0.08 6
Orissa 63.08 73.45 0.79 17 0.86 17 0.06 9
among the population aged 7 and over. But
Punjab 69.65 76.68 0.83 9 0.88 13 0.04 18 the sex ratio for the population aged 0-6
Rajasthan 60.41 67.06 0.78 20 0.82 22 0.04 17 years continued to decline: from 945 females
Sikkim 68.81 82.20 0.83 11 0.91 7 0.08 8 per 1,000 males in 1991, to 927 in 2001 and
Tamil Nadu 73.45 80.33 0.86 6 0.90 8 0.04 20 further down to 914 in 2011 (Table 4). This is
Tripura 73.19 87.75 0.86 7 0.94 3 0.08 5 despite concerted efforts to improve cover-
Uttar Pradesh 56.27 69.72 0.75 21 0.83 19 0.08 3
age and age-misreporting in the 2011 Census.
West Bengal 68.64 77.08 0.83 12 0.88 12 0.05 14
India 64.83 74.04 0.81 0.86 0.06
In spite of an increase between 2001 and
Achievement index for literacy = (1-(max–xi)/(max-min)) ^0.5; max = 100, a maximum level it can reach; min = 0 2011, Punjab and Haryana have the lowest
Improvement index = Achievement index 2 - Achievement index 1.
sex ratio (less than 850) among the 0-6 year
Table 4: Sex Ratio of Total Population, Child Population and Population special efforts to gender sensi- olds in 2011. All the major states with the
Age 7+ (2001 and 2011)
India/States Sex Ratio (Females per 1,000 Males)
tise everyone involved includ- exception of three in the south (Tamil Nadu,
Total Population Child Population in ing the general public: “gender
Populatiion Aged Kerala and Karna­taka) recorded increas-
the Age Group 0-6 7 and Above
2001 2011 2001 2011 2001
sensitivity was integrated into
2011
ing masculinity in their under seven popu-
India 933 940 927 914 934 944 the entire process of census lation sex ratios. The largest decrease was
Andhra Pradesh 978 992 961 943 981 997 taking” (Registrar General of in Maharashtra and Rajasthan (Jammu and
Arunachal Pradesh 893 920 964 960 878 913 India 2011: 14). Specifically, Kashmir experienced too large a decline in
Assam 935 954 965 957 929 953 about 260 districts were iden- its sex ratio – by 82 points – to be plausible).
Bihar 919 916 942 933 914 912 tified as having an abnormally
Chhattisgarh 989 991 975 964 992 995
low sex ratio (below 900), low Causes of Decline
Goa 961 968 938 920 964 973
female literacy and low la- The worsening of the child sex ratio in the
Gujarat 920 918 883 886 927 923
Haryana 861 877 819 830 869 885
bour force participation at last 10 years point to: (i) a further widen-
Himachal Pradesh 968 974 896 906 980 983 2001 Census. These gender ing of the gender mortality gap, and (ii) a
Jammu & Kashmir 892 883 941 859 884 887 critical districts were given decrease in the sex ratio at birth through
Jharkhand 941 947 965 943 935 948 special attention in order to sex selective abortion. It is well-recog-
Karnataka 965 968 946 943 968 971 i­mprove census coverage and nised among both social scientists and
Kerala 1,058 1,084 960 959 1,072 1,099 data quality. policymakers that the two major underly-
Madhya Pradesh 919 930 932 912 916 933 While an improvement in ing causes for discrimination against female
Maharashtra 922 925 913 883 924 931
the enumeration is certainly a children in India are son preference and
Orissa 972 978 953 934 976 985
factor, the most important con- the low status of women (Arnold et al
Punjab 876 893 798 846 888 899
Rajasthan 921 926 909 883 923 935
tributor to the overall increase 1998, 2002; Arokiasamy 2002; Basu 1989;
Sikkim 875 889 963 944 861 883 in sex ratio is improvement in Bhat and Xavier 2003; Caldwell et al 1982;
Tamil Nadu 987 995 942 946 993 1,000 survival rate among women. Clark 2000; Das Gupta 1987; Kishore
Uttar Pradesh 898 908 916 899 894 910 In countries where social in- 1995; Osmani and Sen 2003; Pande and
West Bengal 934 947 960 950 929 946 stitutions are gender neutral, Astone 2007).
Source: Same as Table 1.
the female mortality level is The increasing mortality risk for new-
believe that part of the increase in the overall expected to be less than that of males. Con- born female children is borne out by find-
sex ratio during 2001-11 is also due to further sequently an average f­emale is expected to ings from the National Family Health Sur-
improvements in census enumeration. The live longer than an average male. Unsurpris- veys (NFHS). During the period 1993-97,
preparation for the 2011 Census comprised ingly, this was not the case in independent the sex ratio of children who died under
Economic & Political Weekly  EPW   April 16, 2011  vol xlvI no 16 15
COMMENTARY
five was 1,011 females per 1,000 males.
This increased to 1,045 during 2000-04
(Kishore and Gupta 2009). In the first
decade of the 21st century, a girl child is
about 40% more likely to die than a male
child in her first year of life, and 61% more
likely to die between her first and fifth
birthdays. It is argued that the gender
imbalance in mortality in the first five years
of life is large enough to explain almost all
the difference in sex ratio at birth (Oster
2009). The mortality gap is, in turn, largely
accounted for by differential access to food,
parental care and healthcare utilisation
(Miller 1981, 1997; Mishra et al 2004; Pande
2003; Pande and Yazbeck 2003; Sen and
Sengupta 1983). Some estimates indicate
that as much as 50% of excess female mor-
tality in the 1-4 year age group is likely to
result from gender disparity in vaccinations
and nutritional status (Oster 2009). The
findings from NFHS surveys show that while
full-immunisation rates have been increas-
ing since the early 1990s for both male and
female children, they are still less than 50%.
More importantly, there is no evidence of
narrowing of the gender gap in full immu-
nisation; rather there may be a slight widen-
ing of the gap (Kishore and Gupta 2009).
The role of sex selective abortion in the
deterioration of the child sex ratio is a
hotly debated and intensively researched
area in India (Patel 2007). Both historical
and current analyses have shown that ex-
cessive preference for sons among a well-
equipped burgeoning middle class and
relatively easy access to modern techno­
logies have the potential to prevent an
“unwanted” girl child at conception rather
than at or after birth (Arnold et al 2002).
Indeed the richer classes in India do seem
to treat their female children better than
their poorer counterparts. The NFHS-3 of
2004-05 showed that early childhood
g­ender differential is lower among the
wealthier households than among the
poorer ones (Kishore and Gupta 2009).
It is estimated that during 2001-05 as
many as one female foetus may have been
aborted for every 20 female live births. This
was an increase from less than one abortion
per 30 female births during 1996-2000.
These rates amount to over half a million sex
selective abortions per year during 2001-05
(Kulkarni 2007). Even if it is assumed that
these estimates are at the high end of the
16
possibilities, they do indicate the widespread
and intensified nature of the issue. That
there indeed was a further decline in the
sex ratio at birth is also backed up by the
findings from the NFHS surveys. The sex
ratio at birth of live births (as opposed to
births that died in the first five years of
life) decreased from 936 females per 1,000
males in 1987-91 to 931 in 1993-97 and then
to 910 in 2000-04. The NFHS-3 data further
showed that pregnancies receiving an
ultrasound test were more likely to lead to
a much lower sex ratio than the biologi-
cally normal sex ratio. And sex selective
abortion behaviour goes hand-in-hand
with increased wealth. Women in the top
wealth quintile have about 60% chance of
receiving an ultrasound pregnancy test
compared to less than 10% chance among
women in the bottom two wealth quintiles
(Kishore and Gupta 2009).
Although there is no state-specific esti-
mates for sex selective abortion it can be
inferred that most states with abnormally
low sex ratios in the 0-6 age group are likely
to have higher levels of sex selective abor-
tions than the rest. These states are also
known to exhibit a much stronger gender
bias against female children in providing
food and healthcare. And there is a clear
regional pattern in gender bias, sex selective
abortion, and child health: north-western
states vs southern and eastern states
(Agnihotri 2000, 2003; Bhat 2002; Kulkarni
2007; Patel 2007; Patra 2008). While sex
selective abortion and female neglect jointly
contributed to low sex ratios in some states
such as Punjab and Haryana, sex selective
abortions may have contri­buted proportion-
ately more than female neglect in Gujarat,
Delhi and Chandigarh. This speculative
inference needs to be confirmed by well-
designed research and appropriate data.
Concluding Remarks
The provisional population figures of the
2011 Census do suggest that India’s popula-
tion growth is finally slowing down. Al-
though the total population size exceeded
most projections, the growth rate has slowed
compared to the 1990s. This is largely due
to further declines in fertility throughout the
2000s in the populous states in northern
India. However, it will be a few more dec-
ades before the “momentum effect” arising
from past high fertility runs its course. The
April 16, 2011  vol xlvI no 16  EPW   Economic & Political Weekly
more than expected increase in population
size may also mean that India may overtake
China as the most populous nation a few
years earlier than predicted.
Regional variation in growth rates is
along the expected lines. Despite the nar-
rowing of the north-south gap in growth
rates, the most populous states have the in-
built demographic momentum to run fur-
ther away from the rest in population size.
This means the centre of population gravi-
ty is likely to move towards further north
in the decades to come with the a­ttendant
social, economic and political implications.
Although the population sex ratio has
improved, the unexpected surprise was the
deterioration in child sex ratios. Almost
all the improvement in the population sex
ratio seems to have resulted from an in-
crease in survivorship among females
aged seven and over. With the exception
of three states in the south, all the m­ajor
states fared worse in under seven sex ra-
tios during 2001-11 than in the previous
decade. As special measures were taken to
improve female undercount in the 2011
Census, the increasing masculinity in under
seven sex ratios, particularly in the north,
is likely to have been due to the wide-
spread use of sex selective abortion and
excess female mortality.
Studies have consistently shown that
the long-term solution for eliminating dis-
crimination against female children lies in
bringing about transformative changes in
social institutions and family. The contin-
uous gains in female literacy over the last
two decades are signs that far-reaching so-
cial changes are under way. How soon we
succeed in controlling female gender bias
depends largely on how fast the “­other
half” achieves secondary education. Early
20th century experience from elsewhere
shows that secondary education for all
is essential for women’s empowerment
(Szreter and Fisher 2010). In women’s em-
powerment lie the answers to India’s pop-
ulation and development problems.
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Hazare and His Children
Sukumar Muralidharan
Anna Hazare’s hunger fast last
week for probity in politics
captured the news agenda and
unleashed a nationwide frenzy.
Declarations of victory may be
premature since the real work of
drafting a law on the Lokpal is
only just beginning. Corruption is
not an abstract evil that can be
combated by the virtuous few. It
is about imbalances of power and
the subversion of democratic goals
by elite manipulation. Dealing
with corruption is about deepening
participatory democracy, rather
than disdaining politics as the
fount of all iniquity.
Sukumar Muralidharan (sukumar.md@gmail.
com) is a freelance journalist based in New Delhi.
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man’s personal example and long-needed
correctives applied.
Beyond the moral dimension is the reali-
ty of Indian politics, where the institution
of a Lokpal (which could be rendered as
“servant of the people”) has been discussed
for over four decades. Public reassurance
in the face of rampant corruption has been
an objective of various governments. The
Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC)
chaired by the civil servant turned politi-
cian Morarji Desai had recommended the
institution of such a body in a report sub-
mitted in 1966. The body has, since wrap-
ping up its tasks in the mid-1970s, been re-
branded the first ARC since its efforts were
finally deemed inadequate and required
the institution of a second body with a simi-
lar mandate in 2005. In the fourth of its re-
ports submitted in 2007, the ARC II had ad-
dressed the issue of “ethics” in governance,
again underlining the need for an ombuds-
man that would address public worries and
grievances over the performance of the in-
stitutions of governance.
That the proposal has failed to acquire
any material form, despite official homage
and public concern, is partly about the
reluctance of successive governments to
accept the fetters that a Lokpal would
impose upon ministerial autonomy – a
17