Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG

First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3

Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:

Finding empirical evidences for effects of

the urbanization process on democratic
progress in China: a research proposal

last name: de Cárdenas

first name: Cristina
personal number: 920506-2026
course name: PERDEM, SK2211
assignment: Final paper
word count: 3217
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


1. Introduction

In the effort to understand the performance of democracies or the democratic transition

processes of countries, we have explored the factors that explain the variation between countries
in democratic performance and their implications. These include the theories of modernization,
its relationship to economic growth on the one hand, and democracy on the other.

The modernization phenomenon as agent of change is a process composed of several factors

independently measurable from each other. Education, religious beliefs, economic openness,
political participation and urbanization together influence democratic processes.

Since development theories are so broad, many authors fail to find a consensus on what the real
effect of each variable is, as studies are sensitive to samples, methodologies, geographic or
longitudinal delimitation. Efforts to concretize and define the exogenous and exogenous factors
of democratic transition have led to the of study political processes – both positive and negative
processes - as indicators of approach to democracy and the abolition of authoritarianism.

The political system in China is not only in the process of transition in leadership towards a
fourth generation, but the transformations in the decentralization of political and economic
decision-making, as well as the emergence of an urban middle class and a very dynamic
entrepreneurship, have provoked changes tending towards a greater participation of society in the
positions of political leadership.

The most apparent feature of citizen political participation in China is the direct election of
village committees, which together with the social changes expected as a product of economic
liberalization, has motivated much research that, from different angles, refers to the development
of democracy in China.
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


In this research proposal, I intend to explore the link between, or respond to a specific aspect of
the processes of democratization in China, namely the relationship between the development of
urbanization and the evolution of political participation.

For this task, I will structure the proposal as follows: In the first part, I will review the available
literature, outlining a preliminary study question. This first hypothesis will lead to a study
proposal and its subsequent testing. If the results are valid, how could the approach in question
influence new policy decisions? What would it bring to the body of study on the subject? What
are the limitations?

2. State of the art and research gap

The link, still argumentatively diffuse, but evidently existing, between socio-economic
development and democracy is an issue that encourages significant research at all levels. The
questions arising from the impact of development processes on social institutions, mechanisms
and values refer mainly to the causality between what is generally referred to as "modernization"
and "democracy". However, we find that the answers are far from homogeneous and range from
stating that the causal relationship flows from modernization to democracy, to the idea that
democratic countries are more conducive to modernization and economic development, but
democracy itself occurs exogenously.

On the other hand, other studies find no connection - or even argue that there is a negative
relationship between the critical determinants of modernization. If, moreover, the question is
drawn from a global context towards regional analysis, the dynamics and explanatory variables
show even less consistency in explaining the relationship between economic growth and
democracy.

Answering this question has become an empirical issue. On the one hand, research that is based
on cross-country comparisons (cross-sectional) has called into question the effect of democracy
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


on economic growth. In contrast, more recent studies based on panel data find this effect positive
and significant. Several other studies also suggest that periods of crisis can cause or facilitate
these democratic transitions and, with it, the previous results can reflect an inadequate treatment
of the endogeneity that this generates. Under this argument, the democratic transition may
indicate that poor economic performance has catalyzed the end of autocratic regimes-rather than
that democratization has had a positive effect on economic growth. In this sense Gasiorowski
(1985) or Remmer (1993), as many other researchers identify, at world level, the oil shock of the
1970s, the associated expansion of debt, and the subsequent debt crisis as the origin of the wave
of democratizations observed in the 1980s.

In other words, the positive association between democracy and economic growth may reflect
that democracy leads to more significant economic growth, that economic crises lead to
democratic transition or, to some extent, that both scenarios occur. Although establishing the
sense of causality is not an easy task, understanding the impact of exogenous factors on a political
system on its approach to (better) democracy is a matter of crucial importance.

The modern analysis of democracy, as a result of the driving forces of long-term modernization,
begins with the work of Lipset (1959, 1960 and 1994). The main idea is that there is a relevant
association between the level of development of a given country and its probability of being
democratic. In other words, the better off a nation economically, the greater the chances that it
will come closer to democracy. This assumption was drawn from the study of large global
databases that set aside a number of limitations: the administrative and institutional changes that
a country may have suffered in the longitudinal interval of study for example, or the validity of
the data collected. Since Lipset interprets the association of the two variables in the broadest
sense, it should not be reduced to stating that there is simply a connection between income or
GDP and democratic performance. In other words, it should be noted that the characteristics of
economic development are important factors of democracy, although not necessarily under a
direct causal relationship.
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


Lipset's analysis has been criticized both conceptually and methodologically. Even though Lipset
carried out his study before the social disciplines began to use multiple regression analysis, and
using the methods available at the time, he did not check other factors that today have proved to
be crucial (except for the region) or to examine them in their mutual interaction.

Later studies began to take an interest in attempting to establish some form of causality.
McCrone and Cnudde (1967) combined previous studies by Lerner (1958), Lipset (1960) and
Cutright (1963), finding that Cutright's model found explanations based on the effect of
urbanization, insofar as urbanization produces an increase in education and in turn has an effect
on democratization. In 1970, in a longitudinal study, Winham (1970), also found positive
correlations between communication, urbanization, education and democratization, which
turned out to be similar to those obtained by Cutright. (Bollen, 1990)

Recent developments in the field include the articles by Przeworski and Limongi (1997) and
Przeworski et al. (2000) which formulate a distinction between endogenous and exogenous
variations of democracy. Endogeneity refers to social and economic development leading to
democratic evolution. Exogeneity defines that development only helps to sustain democracy,
once exogenously established.

Boix and Stokes (2003), for their part, point to a series of shortcomings in the preceding, arguing
that although democratic mechanisms initially exist exogenously, in the long term, it is more
likely that countries will continue to be democratic at higher levels of economic development.

Inglehart and Welzel (2005) complemented the theory with the component of political stability
and estimated the relationship between regime changes towards democracy or autocracy for the
different levels of GDP per capita. Their analysis resulted in strong support for the thesis that
modernization increases the likelihood of transition to democracy.
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


Democracy, as it has been studied in the essays mentioned above, is a concept that is continually
being questioned around its operationalization. Furthermore, the various factors that lead to
modernization are also being examined and questioned. And, the process of urbanization, or the
investigation of the urbanization of society, still encounter certain difficulties. On the one hand,
although the multidimensional character of the process is recognized, it is not clear how the
various possible dimensions articulate with each other and with the global society. On the other
hand, the phenomenon is investigated as if it occurred in isolated or autonomous societies,
despite the fact that regional societies (and for the purposes of the proposal, Chinese) are
constitutively dependent and, consequently, their historical legality is dependent. In addition,
urbanization processes have been studied the more in developed countries where urbanization
has occurred in a relatively controlled manner or in line with describable political milestones, but
I have not found consistent literature regarding recent developments in developing or lower-
income countries.

Returning to democracy as operationalization, different currents of study contemplate the idea of

considering a broader vision of democracy. That is, taking into account a broad set of political
and civil rights and the degree to which these are respected by elites. Thus, the analysis can be
enriched insofar as cultural factors dissuasive of social subjects' preferences for institutions and
their democratic mechanisms are considered.

3. Main research question. Theory that supports testable hypotheses.

After reviewing some of the theories that may be relevant to this study proposal, I will now
analyze the relevance and trajectory of China and specifically pose the research question.

Although exogenous forces - international aid, international pressures for development, openness
to trade - have played a role in China's drive towards democratization, the beginnings of China's
democratization have been endogenous. (Cornejo, 2010). Milestones marking the progress of
democratic ideas include what Minxin Pei (1995:67) has called "three small-waves of
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


spontaneous pro-democractic activity" which include the 1978-79 Democracy Wall movement,
the 1986-87 student demonstrations, and the June 4, 1989, Tienanmen Square movement. The
discourse of the new leadership has placed the accent on legality and democracy, which has roots
in political approaches since the beginning of reforms. All these changes have materialized in a
growing grassroots political participation through direct elections of local political bodies, as well
as in the admission of entrepreneurship within the Communist Party. (Frolic, 1997)

The most apparent feature of citizen political participation in China is the direct election of
village committees, which has been widely publicized and, together with the social changes
expected as a result of economic liberalization, has motivated a great deal of research that, from
various angles, refers to the development of democracy in China. (Xiang, 2000)

Literature on modernization and political development postulate the positive relationship

between urbanization and industrialization, the birth and growth of the middle class, a certain
level of economic development, and stable democratic governments. Lerner (1958), for example,
argues that in the process of evolution of a participatory society, the phenomenon of urbanization
appears in the first phase, then literacy and the mass media. But does it work in the same way in
all regions? Some authors argue that in the case of China, the urbanization process would play a
very different role. The accelerated entry of population into cities would further complicate an
already complex and unstable scenario, and an uneven misallocation of wealth would lead to the
detachment of large segments of the population and consequent political instability.

The urbanization process puts individuals in contact with thousands of other men, establishing
new reference groups, creating new problems, new patterns of behaviour, new needs and
expectations (which renews and increases), establishing new levels of knowledge and awareness
of the political phenomenon, and so on. Thus, the urban environment would be a place where
many forces affect society as a whole. In a way, this has positive consequences. The process of
urbanization in China consists of both the expansion and modification of existing urban sectors
in society and the creation of artificial cities established by rather commercial needs. As a
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


consequence, urban-rural relations within society tend to alter and condition changes in existing
sectors. These tendencies occur not only in the ecological-demographic order, but in each of the
various institutional orders in which the whole structure of society can be analyzed - economic,
ecological-demographic, social, cultural, and political. Thus, urbanization is a multidimensional
phenomenon, resulting from one of the significant expressions of the general process of change
in our societies.

Being the phenomenon of multidimensional urbanization, what negative consequences or social

tensions can they bring? Glaeser (2017) points out that while urban density is associated with
higher incomes, contagious diseases, crime, traffic congestion and high house prices can also be
characteristics of urban life, as well as lack of safety or pollution.

Towards the mid of the last decade, the setting par excellence for social clashes in China was
defined by rural areas close to rapidly developing urban areas. In general, the largely depoliticized
urban middle class did not make political demands that compromise governance - but, in rural
areas the number of people affected grew. Peasants stripped of their lands to give space to
development projects, farmers affected by the location of polluting industries that degrade land,
water and air, and ethnic minorities were expelled from their traditional habitat by extensive
irrigation and electrification works. (Navarrete, 2014).

The urbanization process has been studied as an independent variable concerning political
participation, the dependent one. Thus, some authors have argued that urbanization promotes
political participation and the growth of democratic institutions and procedures. This effect
could be seen in aggregate measures of political participation, such as the number of votes cast.
Irving Horowitz, for his part, argues that urbanization makes possible the kind of political
participation necessary for democratic politics. (Horowitz, 1967)

This study seeks to contribute to the empirical literature of the catalysts of democracy by
focusing on a specific aspect of modernization: the process of urbanization. Several approaches
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


justify this choice. In the first place, in line with the aforementioned study by Inglehart and
Welzel, 2005, urbanization stimulates changes towards emancipatory values due to their
educational and occupational differences and their contribution to individual autonomy.
Secondly, that urbanization, in specific contexts of the urban-rural border in China, generates
social tensions because of the negative consequences it can bring if the urbanization process is
not controlled or planned in a sustainable way. Thirdly, that social tensions can give rise to a
form of political participation based on social protests that bring the values of a discontented
society closer to the values of a society with increasingly modernized and emancipated characters.

4. Methodological design - how can we test our hypotheses?

For the design of this study, it must be held that the general process of urbanization of society in
China has to be studied as a joint process. As such the urbanization process is conditioned by the
historical situation of global society in each region, but broken in specific dimensions whose
mutual articulations must be systematically established. If what is sought is not only to study
some of its most concrete manifestations but also how and why the joint process of urbanization
occurs and what is its place and significance in the general process of change of our societies, it
cannot be reduced to any of its separate dimensions, nor only to phenomena that develop within
the strictly urban sector, dismembered from its relations of interdependence with the rural. In
short, the whole cannot be understood outside the historical framework that conditions the
situation of the global society. The three variables outlined below would be combined in a model
of linear multiple regression.

In order to employ an operational measure of the Chinese democratic status in a specific time
spectrum (to be delimited according to available data on urbanization in the same years), Polity
IV data provided by the Center for Systemic Peace - Polity IV Project will be used. The unit of
analysis is "politics". The IV Institutionalized Democracy of Polity IV is an additive scale of 11
points (0.10). The “politics” score is calculated by subtracting the "autocracy" score from the
"democracy" score; the scale ranges from +10 (strongly democratic) to 10 (strongly autocratic).
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:

The degree of urbanization will be measured as the population living in an area classified as
"urban", involving data from the World Bank (2010), but contrasting it with official data from
the Chinese statistical office. Regions of rural-urban cities that have experienced a rapid
urbanization process in the last decades will be selected (making coincide the interval of time
with which one chooses to measure democracy).

Finally, social tension and political participation variables, proxies for the political convictions of
democracy, will be considered. This will examine the arguments of Huntington (1968), who
asserts that a level of political mobilization within a society exceeds the level of institutional
development. This may be the case in some developing countries, which may jeopardize social
stability.

5. Conclusions: Policy relevance of the proposed research

The political system in China is not only in the process of transition in leadership towards a
fourth generation, but the transformations in the decentralization of political and economic
decision-making, as well as the emergence of an urban middle class and a very dynamic
entrepreneurship, have provoked changes tending towards a greater participation of society in the
positions of political leadership.

With the emergence of a new urban middle class, the political culture changes. A prominent
perspective on Chinese political culture and its relationship to democracy argue that certain
democratic values unnecessarily complicate the tasks of economic growth, development and the
maintenance of social peace. Maybe urbanization can be a factor of it. Subramaniam (2000)
arguments: “Western liberal democracy is only one variant among many of the democratic
systems of government” Thus each country has its own unique set of natural, human and cultural
resources, as well as its historical and political experiences. A country's form of government or
political system does not have to accommodate only those unique characteristics, but it also seeks
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


answers consistent with the members of that society. The legitimacy of any political system,
including democracy, has to be assessed according to its ability to achieve certain ends and to
determine the political system to be adopted in a particular society implies finding the best social
and political arrangements through a pragmatic and continuous process of experimentation.

China's economic growth has led to rapid urban growth. This has positive and negative
externalities, and one of the ideas that sparked this study proposal is that is the process of
urbanization, if controlled and planned so that it is executed sustainably, can lead to change in
the values of the society that promote democracy can be achieved in the long run. As Gleaser
(2017) explains, the negative externalities of overcrowding often require public management, but
cities in the developing world often have governments that are neither democratic nor
competent.

The numerous and complex dysfunctions of the urban system and the need to improve the
quality of life of city dwellers have motivated different global and regional organizations to work
in search of solutions that, transformed into actions, tend to achieve a new balance of the urban
system, based on the singularities of each region, country and city. Several global initiatives then
emerge that seek to pool efforts and resources through international agreements and multilateral
agendas, the product of numerous world conferences, in which the governments of participating
countries commit to common commitments and goals for the achievement of sustainable cities.
Maybe finding a clear relationship between the arguments outlined above can shed some light
over these processes and contribute a richer understanding of its causal determinants.
Last name: de Cardenas Course: IAGG
First name: Cristina Part of Course: Term 3
Personal Number: 19920506-2046 Grading Teacher:


6. References
Boix, C., & Stokes, S. C. (2003). Endogenous democratization. World politics, 55(4), 517-549.
Bollen, K. A. (1990). Political democracy: Conceptual and measurement traps. Studies in Comparative International
Development, 25(1), 7-24.
Cornejo, Romer, et al. En los intersticios de la democracia y el autoritarismo. Algunos casos de Asia, África y
América latina, Buenos Aires: Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO), 2010.Gasiorowski, M.
J. (1985). The structure of Third World economic interdependence. International Organization, 39(2), 331-
342.
Cutright, P. (1963). National political development: its measurement and social correlates. Politics and Social Life,
Boston, 569-581.
Frolic, Michael 1997 “State-led civil society” in Brook, Timothy y Frolic, Michael (eds.) Civil society in China
(Armonk: M.E. Sharpe).
Glaeser, E. L., & Steinberg, B. M. (2017). Transforming cities: does urbanization promote democratic
change?. Regional studies, 51(1), 58-68.
Horowitz, I. L. (1967). Electoral politics, urbanization, and social development in Latin America. Urban Affairs
Quarterly, 2(3), 3-35.
Inglehart, R., & Welzel, C. (2010). Changing mass priorities: The link between modernization and democracy.
Perspectives on politics, 8(2), 551-567.
Lerner, D. (1958). The passing of traditional society: Modernizing the Middle East.Navarrete, J. E. (2014).
Urbanización en China:¿ Otro gran salto adelante?. INTERdisciplina, 2(2).Inglehart, R., & Welzel, C.
(2005). Modernization, cultural change, and democracy: The human development sequence. Cambridge
University Press.
Lipset, S.M. (1959). Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.
American Political Science Review, 53 (March): 69 105.
Lipset, S.M. (1960). Political Man. The Social Bases of Politics. New York: Doubleday.
Lipset, S.M. (1994). The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited: 1993 Presidential Address. American Sociological
Review, 59:122.
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, R. M., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A., & Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and
development: political institutions and well-being in the world, 1950-1990 (Vol. 3). Cambridge University
Press.
Samuel, P. (1989). Huntington (1968). Political order in changing societies, 146.
Shi, Tianjin 2000 “Cultural values and democracy in the People’s Republic of China” The China Quarterly (London)
Nº 161,
Subramaniam, S. 2000. The Asian values debate: Implications for the spread of liberal democracy. Asian Affairs: An
American Review, 27: 19–35.
Przeworski, A., & Limongi, F. (1997). Modernization: Theories and facts. World politics, 49(2), 155-183.
Winham, G. R. (1970). Political development and Lerner's theory: Further test of a casual model. American
Political Science Review, 64(3), 810-818.
World Bank. China 2030: building a modern, harmonious, and creative society. Washington, D.C.:
http://documents.worldbank.org/cura- ted/en/2013/03/17494829/china–2030–building–modern–
harmonious– creative–society, 2013b.
Xiang, Jiquan 2000 “Self-government in Chinese villages: an evaluation” Perspectives (Washington) Vol. 1, Nº 4.
Yang, Fang. “Active yet prudent urbanization needed for China.” Xinhua News Agency, marzo 11, 2013, Yang,
Fang (Ed.): Disponible en: http://news.xin- huanet.com/english/china/2013–03/11/c_132224999.htm